Even with an extra day in February this year, Matt Chapman remains unsigned, his free agency having lingered past the start of exhibition season. Admittedly, the soon-to-be-31-year-old third baseman is coming off of an uneven season marked by a late slump related to a finger injury, but he’s been reliably productive throughout his seven-year career, with good-to-great defense bolstering his value at the plate. Meanwhile, his former (?) team, the Blue Jays — who reportedly offered him a nine-figure extension before he hit free agency — have cobbled together an uninspiring solution at third base.
Chapman isn’t the only remaining free agent who could provide a significant upgrade, but he’s by far the best position player remaining on the shelves, and the combination of his absence and the Blue Jays’ needs stands out as I turn to the American League edition of my roundup of the most glaring holes on contending teams (the National League edition is here). For this exercise, I’ve highlighted the spots that per our projections — which combine ZiPS and Steamer as well as playing time estimates from RosterResource — fall below a combined 2.0 WAR on teams whose Playoff Odds sit at or above 25%.
Why 2.0 WAR? That’s the rough equivalent of average play across a full season, but because of the general tendency to overproject playing time and keep even the weakest teams with positive WARs at each position (in reality over 10% of them will finish in the red), our position player Depth Chart values at the team level are inflated by about 20%. That is, instead of having a total of 1,000 WAR projected across the 30 teams, and 57% of that (570 WAR) allocated to position players, our Depth Chart values currently add up to about 682 WAR. Thus, I am discounting the team values that you see on the Depth Chart pages by 20%, and focusing on the lowest-ranked contenders among those whose adjusted values fall below that 2.0 WAR threshold. The individual WAR values cited will remain as they are on the Depth Chart pages, however, and it’s worth noting that many of the players here — particularly youngsters with shorter track records, including some from our Top 100 Prospects list — don’t project particularly well but still have considerable upside. Read the rest of this entry »
The White Sox rebuild marched on over the weekend, as the team signed a veteran non-roster invitee and made two trades that brought three prospects and a draft pick into the system. Most significantly, 24-year-old reliever Gregory Santos was traded to the Mariners for 23-year-old righty Prelander Berroa, 25-year-old outfielder Zach DeLoach and a “Comp B” draft pick, the 69th choice in the 2024 draft. The White Sox also traded 21-year-old righty Cristian Mena to Arizona for 26-year-old outfielder Dominic Fletcher. Read the rest of this entry »
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Are you, or have you ever been, in a position to make decisions about major league team personnel? Do you like trading? Have you ever held a dime and wished it were two nickels, or vice versa? If so, stay where you are, remain calm, and Jerry Dipoto will be calling you soon to make some deals. Like this one:
MLB righties Anthony DeSclafani and Justin Topa along with prospects OF Gabriel Gonzalez and RHP Darren Bowen is the four player return for Polanco, per sources. Believe cash is also involved. https://t.co/GQDKtwaogh
Prospects! Relievers! Reclamation projects! Everyday regulars! This one has a little bit of everything. But it’s more complicated than that, because it’s not your standard offseason trade, where one team is downgrading to look for the future while the other builds for today. Both of these teams have playoff hopes this year, and they’re each using this trade to improve their chances. It’s a weird one. Read the rest of this entry »
The Mariners and Rays had a busy Friday last week, combining to make three trades involving seven players. Seattle got things started with a three-player swap with the San Francisco Giants, shipping Robbie Ray to the Bay Area in exchange for Mitch Haniger, Anthony DeSclafani, and cash considerations. Then the M’s and the Rays exchanged José Caballero and Luke Raley, before Tampa Bay finished off the day by sending Andrew Kittredge to St. Louis for Richie Palacios. Both the Mariners and Rays dealt from areas of strength to address areas of need, giving both teams greater roster clarity as the offseason moves towards spring training.
Just two years ago, the three players involved in the first trade of the day would have garnered much bigger headlines. In 2021, Ray, Haniger, and DeSclafani combined to accumulate 9.4 WAR, with Ray winning the American League Cy Young award. In the two seasons since then, however, the trio has combined for just 3.3 WAR, largely thanks to a litany of injuries. Ray was completely healthy in 2022, but he wasn’t able to replicate his award-winning performance in his first season in Seattle and then made just a single start in 2023 before needing Tommy John surgery. Haniger has never been a model of health — he’s played just two full seasons in his seven-year career — and missed time with ankle, back, oblique, and forearm injuries the past two seasons. DeSclafani managed just five starts in 2022 thanks to a recurring ankle injury, then wore down towards the end of last year with shoulder fatigue and forearm inflammation. Read the rest of this entry »
The Mariners have made their first significant upgrade of the offseason, inking Mitch Garver to a two-year deal worth $24 million. Formerly a member of the Twins and Rangers, the soon-to-be 33-year-old Garver first made a name for himself in the peak of the juiced ball era, clubbing 31 homers in just 93 games while slugging .630 in his 2019 campaign. He hasn’t reached such heights since, but Garver has remained an offensive threat, even as he’s struggled to stay healthy and demonstrate his prowess over a full season.
Let’s take a look at the best-hitting catchers of 2023. In the modern era of lower catcher workloads and backstops moonlighting at first base, DH, and even in the outfield, you can define “best-hitting catcher” in many ways. But for now, I’ll just use primary catchers as defined by our leaderboards:
On the surface, Garver was the best offensive catcher in the league, along with former teammate Ryan Jeffers, who broke out in his first season as Minnesota’s “primary” backstop (his 82 starts behind the plate were barely a majority). Michael Baumann pointed out last month that Garver is masterful at waiting for his pitch and then pulling it out of the yard. Those pitches are usually fastballs, which he’s crushed with authority throughout his career to the tune of a +51 run value. Over time, pitchers have picked up on his tendencies, throwing him breaking balls at a 98th-percentile rate. And while 2023 marked an improvement in his results against bendy stuff, Garver’s success in spite of this has come thanks to his selective aggression, patiently waiting for heaters in his wheelhouse. Read the rest of this entry »
The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2024 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.
In my previous multi-candidate roundup, I paired two lefties who haven’t gotten much traction on Hall of Fame ballots thus far in Andy Pettitte and Mark Buehrle. As a means of completing my coverage of the major candidates before the December 31 voting deadline, it made sense to group them into a single overview and invite readers wishing to (re)familiarize themselves with the specifics of their cases to check out last year’s profiles. Today, I’m doing the same for a pair of elite hitters who would already be enshrined if not for their links to performance-enhancing drugs: Manny Ramirez and Alex Rodriguez.
Like Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, both sluggers have transgressions that predate the introduction of drug testing and penalties in 2004. Via The New York Times (Ramirez) and Sports Illustrated (Rodriguez), both reportedly failed the supposedly anonymous 2003 survey test that determined whether such testing would be introduced. Had they not pressed their luck further, both might already be in Cooperstown alongside 2022 honoree David Ortiz, who reportedly failed the survey test, too. Alas, Ramirez was actually suspended twice, in 2009 and ’11; the latter ended his major league career, though he traveled the globe making comeback attempts. Rodriguez was suspended only once, but it was for the entire 2014 season due to his involvement in the Biogenesis scandal and his scorched-earth attempt to evade punishment.
Ramirez debuted with 23.8% on the 2017 ballot and only last year topped 30%. Rodriguez debuted with 34.3% in 2022 but barely inched up in ’23. Given that Bonds and Clemens topped out in the 65–66% range in 2022 and then were passed over by the Contemporary Baseball Era Committee the following year, nobody should be holding their breaths for these two to get elected anytime soon. Read the rest of this entry »
For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Seattle Mariners.
Batters
Julio Rodríguez is a great marquee player to have in any lineup, so no complaints there. Nor will you see me express concerns about Cal Raleigh behind the plate; the relatively down projection on the depth chart at catcher is due to Seby Zavala rather than the Big Dumper. The problem for the Mariners is that after those two and J.P. Crawford, the quality drops off fairly quickly. Read the rest of this entry »
Rule no. 1 of MLB’s Winter Meetings: Beware of water features. Nashville’s Gaylord Opryland Resort & Convention Center, which for the next three days will serve as Vatican City for dudes in quarter zips and running shoes, contains within its expansive halls an artificial river. I’m in the process of putting together a bounty pool to see if we can get a writer to fall in the drink by the end of the week, but so far everyone’s stayed dry.
Nobody has suffered the fate of this legendary unfortunate, who absentmindedly stumbled into a Dallas hotel fountain in 2011, live on MLB Network. I’d like to propose — with the understanding that this might be controversial — that face-planting into a water feature would’ve been a more productive use of Jerry Dipoto’s Sunday evening than what he actually got up to.
Up in Seattle, the Mariners had a problem. Eugenio Suárez, who the team initially acquired as salary ballast in the trade that brought them Jesse Winker, was due to make $11 million next year – $13 million if you count a buyout on a team option for 2025. This wasn’t a huge problem – Suárez had been solid since joining the team, racking up 7.3 WAR in two seasons – but for a club whose payroll has bounced around between $110 million and $140 million in recent years, it’s a sizable chunk of the puzzle.
What’s more, Jerry Dipoto telegraphed the team’s intention to favor long-term budget sustainability over short-term upgrades in his now-infamous 54% remark. Dipoto apologized for the tone of those comments – “doing the fans a favor” is just not a good way to phrase things – but the broad point was hard to miss. The Mariners are committed to building their team for the long run on their own terms, which seems to mean prioritizing payroll savings and cost-controlled players wherever possible. Read the rest of this entry »
For the second time this calendar year, Luis Urías has been traded in a one-for-one swap for a right-handed pitcher from the 2019 draft class. This time, it’s the Mariners hoping to help the former top prospect turn things around and rediscover the skills that made him an above-average contributor in 2021 and ’22. In exchange, they’re sending 26-year-old Isaiah Campbell to the Red Sox. The righty reliever made 27 appearances for Seattle this past season.
Urías was a highly-touted prospect in the Padres organization in the mid-2010s, but after a slow start to his major league career (an 80 wRC+ and 10 errors in 83 games), San Diego shipped him off to Milwaukee for a change of scenery in November 2019, picking up Trent Grisham in the process. It was with the Brewers that Urías finally broke out; after another poor performance in 2020, he posted a 111 wRC+ and 4.4 WAR across 269 games in 2021 and ‘22. Thus, even with Willy Adames locked in at shortstop, middle infield prospect Brice Turang knocking on the big league door, and veteran third baseman Brian Anderson joining the fray in free agency, Urías looked like a key piece of the team’s future. His glove didn’t stand out at any one position, but he could hold his own at second, third, and short, allowing the Brewers to plug him in all around the infield.
Urías was Milwaukee’s Opening Day third baseman in 2023, but unfortunately, a hamstring injury kept him off the field for all of April and May. He returned to a more crowded infield picture in June: Owen Miller had been red-hot over the past month, Andruw Monasterio was hitting well in his first week of big league action, and Anderson still boasted a 102 wRC+ on the season despite having slowed down after a strong start. Moreover, Turang was struggling but still needed regular playing time if the Brewers were going to keep him in the majors, and Adames was nearing his return from a short stint on the 10-day IL. Urías stumbled that month, going just 8-for-51 with three extra-base hits, and the Brewers – who, at that time, were still in a close division race – had little patience for his struggles. He was optioned at the end of the month in favor of Turang, who was hitting well at Triple-A after a brief demotion of his own.
Ultimately, that would mark the end of the road for Urías in Milwaukee. Seemingly lacking optimism that he could return to form at the big league level, the Brewers flipped him to the Red Sox at the deadline in exchange for 22-year-old
pitching prospect Bradley Blalock. Things got better in Boston, as one could’ve expected. Not only was Urías further removed from his hamstring injury, but his .179 BABIP with the Brewers was bound to improve. He never got back to his peak from 2021 to ‘22, but he posted a 98 wRC+ with the Red Sox over the final two months of the season.
With that in mind, it’s somewhat surprising to see Boston give up on Urías so quickly. After his poor performance in 2023, he isn’t going to earn a sizable raise in arbitration; the projections at MLB Trade Rumors suggests he’ll earn the exact same $4.7 million salary in 2024. Even if he never reaches his full potential, a versatile infielder who can provide league-average production with the bat is a valuable player to have on the roster. Consider Whit Merrifield and Amed Rosario, whom our contract crowdsourcing estimates have earning two-year deals worth $16 million and $18 million, respectively. To that end, it’s not as if the Red Sox are overflowing with infield talent, nor is the free agent market. Rafael Devers has third base on lock, and Trevor Story should be the starting shortstop, but second base remains a question mark. Boston has internal options, but none with the experience or high ceiling of Urías.
It’s certainly possible the Red Sox are planning to pursue Rosario, Merrifield, or Tim Anderson, but chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has already spoken about the internal options, and it looks like Enmanuel Valdez is likely to be the starting second baseman on Opening Day. Valdez hit for a 102 wRC+ in 49 games last season, playing second base and a sprinkle of shortstop, and presumably, the Sox think they can get similar production to Urías at a pre-arbitration salary. Veteran utilityman Pablo Reyes (another former Brewer) and speedy shortstop prospect David Hamilton figure to get some reps at the keystone as well, especially the right-handed Reyes, who could serve as the short side of a platoon with the lefty-batting Valdez.
If the Red Sox have faith in Valdez (or a plan to sign an upgrade), this isn’t a bad move. After all, while Urías is only a year removed from a 110 wRC+, there are reasons to be concerned about his bat. His best skill is his plate discipline; from 2021-22, he posted a walk rate 23% higher than league average and a strikeout rate 9% lower than the average hitter. His 0.53 walk-to-strikeout ratio ranked among the top 20 qualified hitters in the National League. Strangely enough, his 11.9% walk rate in 2023 was actually a career high, but it’s difficult to imagine that the way he got there was sustainable. While Urías swung significantly less often in 2023, he was far more likely to swing at pitches outside the strike zone. As a result, he posted a career-high called strike rate and a career-high whiff rate. By and large, hitters should keep the bat on their shoulders more often, but if a hitter is going to be selective, he has to be selective in the right way. Moreover, his slightly above-average power fell off too, and even if you want to blame it all on his injury (he hit the ball harder as the year went on), Urías has developed something of a reputation as an injury-prone player. Over the last two years, he has gone on the IL with strains to his hamstring, calf, and quad.
What’s more, it’s not as if the Red Sox gave up Urías for nothing. Seattle has developed a stable of talented pitchers in recent years, and Campbell was only expendable because the Mariners are so confident in their pitching depth. Indeed, Campbell, the first big league player born in Portugal since Frank Thompson of the original Washington Nationals, put up promising numbers in 2023, pitching well enough at Double-A to earn the call to join one of baseball’s best bullpens in July. Although his career got off to a slow start due to the lost 2020 season and an elbow surgery in 2021, the righty quickly established himself as a legitimate big league bullpen arm after pitching to a 1.57 ERA and 3.04 FIP over the last two minor league seasons. His pitches are a little difficult to classify; what Pitch Info calls his slider, Baseball Savant calls a sweeper, and what Baseball Savant calls a slider, Pitch Info calls a cutter. Regardless of what you call it, however, his cutter/slider is a true weapon. He threw it about 38% of the time in 2023, holding big league batters to a .139 wOBA and .217 xwOBA. The pitch modeling systems agree that it’s a plus pitch, and combined with his high-spinning four-seam fastball, which sits 95 and tops out at 97.4 mph, Campbell has what it takes to hold down a spot in Boston’s bullpen. The Red Sox have some solid arms at the back end of their ‘pen, but they need depth, and this move helps to accomplish that goal.
As for the Mariners, they certainly didn’t need Urías – they already have a pair of right-handed utility infielders in José Caballero and Dylan Moore – but it’s clear that Seattle likes versatility and reclamation projects. Their 40-man roster already features several utility men, including Caballero, Moore, and Sam Haggerty, and Jerry Dipoto is no stranger to shopping for bounce-back candidates. Several players to get meaningful playing time in recent years have been in this middling bat/versatile glove mold, including Abraham Toro and Josh Rojas, who is penciled in for starting second base duty in 2024.
Those names might not inspire a ton of confidence, but still, the appeal of a player like Urías is clear. Besides, as the Mariners discovered this season, the safe choice isn’t always so safe – just look at how the Kolten Wong trade worked out. With that in mind, it’s no surprise Dipoto went in the opposite direction this time around. In fact, this could work out quite well for the Mariners, as long as they treat it like the gamble it is. Evidently, the Red Sox weren’t willing to risk a mere $5 million on Urías, and the Mariners could reap the rewards of spending a little extra cash to take him on. Besides, even if Urías isn’t anything more than a league-average bat and the weak side of a second base platoon, he isn’t a bad pickup, given the dearth of middle infield options on the free agent market.
That said, it’s worth stressing that while this might be a productive gamble, it’s certainly not the offensive upgrade the Mariners need to compete with the Astros and Rangers in the AL West. It remains to be seen if this trade is a sign of the Mariners flexing some financial muscle by scooping up a player another team didn’t want to pay or if it indicates that Dipoto plans to spend another offseason shopping in the bargain bin instead of pursuing more expensive options. Seattle could really benefit from adding a corner outfield/DH bat in free agency, and they have the payroll space to do so (they’re about $35 million below last year’s luxury tax payroll), but this front office has never spent big on a free agent position player before.
The Mariners are taking on the uncertainty in this trade, but ultimately, it’s the Red Sox who are taking a bigger risk. Boston, a team with no clear answer at second base, gave up a young, cost-controlled infielder who was a two-plus win player as recently as 2022. If Urías bounces back with the Mariners, Breslow could end up looking foolish in his very first trade as CBO.
Over the past 10 years, Urías has gone from unheralded international signing, to top prospect, to big league bust, to breakout hitter, to reclamation project. This is already the third time he’s been traded in his big league career. With that in mind, it can be hard to remember that he’s still young; Urías won’t turn 27 until next June. Indeed, he’s younger than NL Rookie of the Year finalist James Outman. In other words, he still has time on his side. His days as a top prospect are far behind him, but his top prospect potential hasn’t disappeared, and the Mariners will hope to help him reach that ceiling in 2024.
