The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2024 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

For the past few election cycles, as a means of completing my coverage of the major candidates before the December 31 voting deadline, I’ve been grouping together some candidates into a single overview, inviting readers wishing to (re)familiarize themselves with the specifics of their cases to check out older profiles that don’t require a full re-working, because very little has changed, even with regards to their voting shares. Today, I offer the first such batch for this cycle, a pair of elite hitters who would already be enshrined if not for their links to performance-enhancing drugs: Manny Ramirez and Alex Rodriguez.

Like Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, both sluggers have transgressions that predate the introduction of drug testing and penalties in 2004. Via The New York Times (Ramirez) and Sports Illustrated (Rodriguez), both reportedly failed the supposedly anonymous 2003 survey test that determined whether such testing would be introduced. Had they not pressed their luck further, both might already be in Cooperstown alongside 2022 honoree David Ortiz, who also reportedly failed the survey test. Alas, Ramirez was actually suspended twice, in 2009 and ’11; the latter ended his major league career, though he traveled the globe making comeback attempts. Rodriguez was suspended only once, but it was for the entire 2014 season due to his involvement in the Biogenesis scandal and his scorched-earth attempt to evade punishment — a sequence of events unparalleled among baseball’s PED-linked players.

As I’ve noted more times than I can count over the past decade and a half, my own policy with regards to such candidates is to differentiate between pre-2004 transgressions and the rest; while I included the likes of Bonds, Clemens, Gary Sheffield, and Sammy Sosa on my virtual and actual ballots, I have yet to do so for any player who earned a suspension for PEDs, including this pair — two players who at their best were a thrill to watch, but who also did some of the most cringeworthy stuff of any players in their era. They and the other suspended players were well aware of the consequences for crossing the line, yet did so anyway. While this personal policy began as a ballot-management tool at a time when I felt more than 10 candidates were worthy of a vote, I’ve found it to be a reasonable midpoint between total agnosticism on the subject and a complete hard-line stance. My sympathies tend more towards the former group — those who refuse to play cop for MLB and the Hall, reasoning such players have not been declared ineligible à la Pete Rose — than the latter, but I respect both positions.

Anyway, Ramirez debuted with 23.8% on the 2017 ballot, didn’t surpass that mark until ’20 (28.2%), didn’t top 30% until ’23 (33.2%), and fell back a fraction of a point on the ’24 ballot (32.5%). That’s eight years to gain less than 10 percentage points, meaning that he’ll fall off the ballot after his 10th year (the 2026 ballot).

Rodriguez debuted with 34.3% in 2022, barely inched up in ’23 (35.7%), and receded slightly in ’24 (34.8%). Given that Bonds and Clemens topped out in the 65–66% range in 2022 and then were passed over by the Contemporary Baseball Era Committee the following year, nobody should be holding their breaths for either of these two to get elected anytime soon, though it will be awhile before we stop hearing about them. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s a shame that “bunts are bad” has become one of the truisms at the core of the ceaseless, silly battle between old school and new school, stats and scouts, quantitative and qualitative assessment methods. It’s understandable, because “stop bunting so much” was one of the first inroads that sabermetric analysts made in baseball strategy. But that was 25 years ago, and while everyone kept repeating that same mantra, the facts on the ground changed.

Sacrifice bunts by non-pitchers have plummeted over the years, as they should have. In recent years, the bunts that are left, the ones that teams haven’t streamlined out of their game planning, are mostly the good ones. “Bunts are bad” never meant that in totality; it just meant that too many of the times that teams sacrificed outs for bases were poor choices. That’s become much more clear now that pitchers don’t bat anymore. The 2022 season, the first full year of the universal DH, set a record for most runs added by bunting. After a down 2023, this season was right back near those banner highs. So let’s recap the ways teams beat the old conventional wisdom and assembled a year of bunting that the number-crunchingest analyst on the planet could appreciate.

The Death of the Worst Sac Bunts
When is a good time to bunt? It’s complicated! It depends on where the defense is playing, the score of the game, who’s on base, the player at the plate, the subsequent hitters due up, and myriad other minor factors. But there’s one overwhelming factor: There are base/out states where bunts are almost always a bad idea, and the more you avoid those, the better.

Sacrifice bunting with only a runner on first almost never makes sense. You’re getting just a single advancement, and it’s the least valuable advancement there is. Getting a runner to third with only one out is an admirable goal. Moving two runners up is even better. Squeeze plays have huge potential rewards. Moving a guy from first to second just doesn’t measure up.

Likewise, bunting gets worse when there’s already one out in the inning. Plate appearances with runners on base are worth their weight in gold in the modern, homer-happy game. Crooked numbers are tough to come by, and the easiest way to get them is by stacking up opportunities to hit multi-run homers. When you already have a runner on base, bunts are always suspect. Bunts that cut out half of your remaining outs in the inning are even worse.

There are occasional circumstances where these types of bunts make sense. If the batter thinks they’ll beat out a hit fairly often, bunting gets better. The weaker the hitter and the better the subsequent lineup, the more attractive bunts get. Close games and speedy runners can tip the balance. It’s not a universally bad decision to bunt with only a runner on first, or to bunt with one or more outs, but the higher the proportion of bunts that move a runner to third with less than two outs, the better.

To get an idea of how much this has changed while removing pitchers from the equation, I looked at the 2015-2019 seasons and excluded all plate appearances from the ninth spot in the batting order. That’s not a perfect way of removing pitchers, but it gets pretty close. I used this to get an idea for what percentage of bunts came in favorable situations – with at least a runner on second and no one out.

In those years, 23.2% of bunts occurred in the best situations for a sacrifice. After removing bases-empty bunts, which are clearly a different animal, we’re left with bunts in situations where a sacrifice isn’t particularly valuable. Those ill-conceived bunts cost teams roughly 0.1 runs per bunt, a shockingly high number. All other bunts – attempts for a hit or attempts to move a runner to third with only one out – carried positive run expectancy. It’s just that there were so many bunts in bad spots.

In 2024, 31.7% of bunts came in “good sacrifice” situations, with a runner on second and no one out. Increasingly, the “bad sacrifice” situations are now about going for a single with some ancillary benefits of runner advancement. On-base percentage on bunts with runners on base is up. In 2024, 25% of the bunts with runners on base ended with the batter reaching base safely, via hit, failed fielder’s choice, or error. That’s up from 22% (non-pitcher) in the 2015-2019 era, and from 17.7% from 2008 to 2012. If anything, that understates it too: Plenty of the worst hitters in baseball used to bat in front of pitchers, which limited their bunting opportunities.

Impressive Individual Efforts
Jose Altuve bunted 14 times this year. Nine of those turned into singles. That was the best performance by anyone with double-digit bunts, but it was hardly the only exceptional effort. Jake McCarthy bunted 21 times and racked up 10 singles. Luke Raley went 7-for-12. This one from Altuve was just perfect:

That’s not to say there have never been good bunters before. Dee Strange-Gordon consistently turned bunts into singles at a high clip. Altuve has been in the majors for a while. But the high-volume bunters in today’s game are more effective than they were 10 years ago in the aggregate. There are also fewer truly objectionable bunters. Francisco Lindor bunted 20 times in 2015 and reached base safely only three times. Fellow 2024 Met Jose Iglesias bunted 12 times and reached base once. There were still some bad bunters – Kevin Kiermaier and Kyle Isbel had awful results, for example – but it’s become far less common.

Bunting for a single is hardly the only positive outcome, of course. That’s why you bunt in the first place – because bunts lead to more productive outs, on average, than swinging away. Advancement is more likely and double plays are less likely. Individual efforts of the top few bunters have always been net positive. These days, those top bunters are accounting for a bigger share of overall bunts, and the results have improved proportionally.

Bunters Were Already Good
Here’s a secret: The wars were already over. In 2002, bunters batting in the 1-8 spots in the lineup cost their teams 36 runs relative to a naive expectation based on the base/out state when they batted. In 2004, that number swelled to -63 runs. It was negative in 11 of the 12 seasons from 2000-2011, with roughly 2,000 bunts a year from this cohort, which largely excludes pitchers.

The number of non-pitcher bunt attempts declined as the 21st century progressed into its second decade. By 2015, we were down to 1,500 a year or so and steadily declining. The bunts excised from the game were all the lowest-value bunts, the ones most likely to hurt the batting team. From 2012 onward, non-pitchers have produced positive value on their bunt attempts every single year. Meanwhile, bunt attempts have declined and then stabilized, around 1,100-1,200 per year. Teams aren’t dummies – they’ve cut out 800 bunts a year, or more than 25 per team, and those bunts are pretty much all the no-hope-for-a-single sacrifice attempts that drew statistically minded folks’ ire in the first place.

In that sense, you’re not really seeing anything completely new in 2024. The very best bunters in the game are a little bit better than they used to be, but not overwhelmingly so. They’re choosing better spots, but not overwhelmingly so. They’re succeeding more frequently when they aim for a hit, but good bunters have always been good at that. The real change is in the bunts that aren’t happening.

The Mariners
I’ll be honest: I didn’t expect the Mariners to top the list of best bunting teams. They seem too station-to-station, too offensively challenged, too reliant on the home run. What can I say? Appearances can be deceiving. Led by Raley, an unlikely but enthusiastic bunter, the Mariners had a league-best performance. This one was just perfect:

It was a great situation for a bunt. The Astros were shifted over toward Raley’s pull side, which left third baseman Alex Bregman on an island covering third and prevented him from crashing early. Raley disguised the bunt long enough to get everything moving, and then used his sneaky-blazing footspeed to beat it out. It’s a masterpiece of bunting.

Victor Robles is less about masterpieces and more about maximum effort. He bunts too often for his own good. That leads to a lot of iffy bunts, but also some gems:

That’s another one where reading the defense made all the difference. The Rays shifted their middle infielders away from first, which meant a bunt past the pitcher would leave Yandy Díaz helpless. This one also benefited from a bit of defensive confusion, as many good bunts do. Who was covering second when Díaz fielded the ball? More or less no one:

Hey, every little bit helps when you’re bunting. And while plenty of other Mariners contributed to their success as well – Leo Rivas and Jorge Polanco know how to handle a bat – I had to close this out with another gem from Raley. Sure, it’s against the White Sox, but those runs count too. Raley is just vicious when it comes to attacking good spots to bunt:

It’s not every day that you see a squeeze bunt go for a no-throw single. But again, Raley read the defense and placed the ball perfectly. Not much you can do about this:

Altuve might have the advantage in raw numbers, but no one made me sit up in my seat hoping for a bunt like Raley did this year. Hat tip to Davy Andrews for highlighting his hijinks early in the year, and Raley just never stopped going for it.

The Angels
By all rights, this article should be over. The Mariners were the best bunters this year, Raley was their ringleader, and they exemplified the way bunts are making offenses better in today’s game. But the Angels are altogether more confusing and more giffable, so I’m giving them a shout too.

You’d think that Ron Washington’s team would be at the very top of the bunt rate leaderboards, but the Halos attempted only 25 bunts this year, half the Mariners’ tally and seventh-lowest in baseball. The reason why is obvious: They weren’t that good at it. They weren’t the worst team in terms of runs added – that’d be the Nats, who were both prolific and bad at bunting this year – but they were impressively inefficient. No one with so few bunt attempts was nearly so bad in the aggregate.

They bunted in bad spots. They rarely reached base even when the defense was poorly positioned. This might be the worst bunt attempt you’ve seen this year:

Unless it’s this:

The lesson: Stop with all these squeeze bunts. Unless it’s against the White Sox, that is:

See, our story has a happy ending for the bunters after all. I love bunts, and I’m not afraid to use this platform to show it.

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2025 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule, and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

In a home run-saturated era, Ichiro Suzuki stood out. Before coming stateside, the slightly-built superstar earned the moniker the “Human Batting Machine” from Japanese media, and he hardly missed a beat upon arriving in Seattle in 2001, slapping singles and doubles to all fields in such prolific fashion that he began his major league career by reeling off a record 10 straight 200-hit seasons. Along the way, he set a single-season record with 262 hits in 2004, and despite not debuting until age 27, he surpassed the 3,000-hit milestone. Between Nippon Professional Baseball and Major League Baseball, he totaled 4,367 hits, making him the International Hit King — a comparison that rankled some, including the Hit King himself, Pete Rose.

Despite his small stature (listed at 5-foot-11, 175 pounds), Suzuki was larger than life, an athlete on a first-name basis with two continents full of fans. Wearing “Ichiro” on the back of his jersey — his manager’s idea of a promotional gimmick — he built his legend in Japan by winning seven straight batting titles (1994–2000) and three straight MVP awards for the Orix Blue Wave, whom he led to a Japan Series championship in 1996. When he joined the Mariners, he faced widespread skepticism about whether his style of play would translate, because while NPB star Hideo Nomo had enjoyed considerable success with the Dodgers upon arriving in 1995, no Japanese position player had made the transition to MLB before. The Mariners — who within the previous two years had shed superstars Randy Johnson, Ken Griffey Jr., and Alex Rodriguez from their squad — won Suzuki’s rights and signed him, but his struggles in his first spring training caused manager Lou Piniella concern. Yet it all worked out, and in spectacular fashion. Suzuki led the AL with a .350 batting average, won Rookie of the Year and MVP honors while helping the Mariners to a record 116 wins, and began 10-year streaks of All-Star selections and Gold Glove awards.

All of this played out during a time when sabermetricians downplayed the value of batting average relative to on-base and slugging percentages. Like Derek Jeter, Suzuki was more a fan favorite than a stathead one, though his additional contributions on the bases and in right field helped him rank third among all position players for that decade-long stretch with 54.8 WAR, trailing only Albert Pujols (81.4) and Rodriguez (71.5). But Suzuki wasn’t just about the numbers. Beneath his near-religious devotion to routine burned a competitive fire that was offset by a sly sense of humor, both of which featured copious quantities of f-bombs that were hardly lost in translation, to hear others tell the stories. Read the rest of this entry »

For the 21st consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Seattle Mariners.

Batters

For the third time in the last four years, the Mariners hung around the playoff race for most of the 2024 campaign, before falling just short by the season’s denouement. When it comes to winning 85 to 90 games a year like clockwork, Jerry Dipoto’s ship is airtight and his sailors always on the ball. But so far, St. Louis Cardinals: Pacific Northwest hasn’t been quite as effective as the original series — the Mariners aren’t going to have as easy a time stealing division titles as the Cardinals did, playing as they do in a harder division. While the Mariners aggressively add players and make trades, there’s a basic conservatism here that limits the team’s ultimate upside; despite seven winning seasons in the last 11 years, Seattle has maxed out at just 90 wins. This isn’t a new thing either — the franchise only has one 95-win-or-better season in its history (the 116-win 2001 season, of course). Read the rest of this entry »

The Seattle Mariners had the most starter innings in the majors this year and fell short of the playoffs. Conversely, Detroit Tigers had the fewest starter innings and reached the postseason. For their part, the Kansas City Royals, who had the second-most starter innings, did play October baseball, while the San Francisco Giants, who had the second-lowest total, did not. And then there were the Milwaukee Brewers. Much like the Tigers, the Brewers made the postseason despite getting a low number of innings from their starters — they ranked fifth from the bottom — in part because several of their relievers had outstanding seasons.

What does that all mean? Moreover, what might it mean going forward?

In search of answers, I spoke with the general mangers and/or presidents of baseball operations of the five aforementioned teams at this week’s GM Meetings in San Antonio, Texas. For the execs whose clubs had a low number of starter innings, I was interested in how few innings they felt they could get next year and return (or advance) to the postseason. For those whose clubs topped the starter innings rankings, my inquiries were more about their philosophy and preferences in the seasons to come.

———

Justin Hollander, Seattle Mariners

“I don’t think there is such a thing as too many [starter innings],” said Hollander, whose club had 942 2/3 starter innings this season. “We are very cognizant of pitcher health and of making sure we’re putting them in positions to succeed. I think we did about as well as you can with that. In a perfect world, you would never have a stressful inning as a pitcher; that’s not realistic. But surrounding our starters with an impact bullpen, which we’ve done over the years, gives the manager and the pitching coaches the freedom and confidence to let the starter go to the point where they feel like they’ve done everything they can to win the game.

“Our starters take a ton of pride in going deep into the game. We don’t want to artificially limit them, or script out what that’s going to look like. Watching and evaluating the game as it goes on — when is the right time? — is something that our staff has done a great job of.”

The days of a Mickey Lolich going 300-plus innings, like he did multiple times in the 1970s with the Tigers, are long gone and unlikely to be repeated. Even so, are today’s top-end innings standards — Logan Gilbert’s 208 2/3 was this year’s highest total — at all detrimental to a pitcher’s long-term health and effectiveness?

“In the 2024 baseball universe, our starters are pretty optimized,” opined Hollander. “And I think there is a distinction between optimized and maxed out. We’re not looking to max out and get every possible pitch out of our starters, we’re looking to optimize the performance of our team. We don’t ask them to do more than that, because then you might be risking maximizing to the detriment of the team.

Despite “an impact bullpen,” giving more innings to relievers hasn’t been a consideration for the Mariners.

“We’ve never talked about that,” Hollander told me. “Obviously, there is a rest component, and there may be a time when someone hasn’t pitched in a few days so it’s kind of a must-pitch day for them if there is a spot to get them in the game. I think we had a great balance this year between pitcher usage and pitcher rest. But I don’t think we ever factored in the idea of wanting to take a starter out to put someone in from the bullpen if it wasn’t time to take the starter out. Our starters are among the highest-impact starters in baseball. We want to do everything we can to put them in position to succeed for as many innings as they have to give us.”

———

Scott Harris, Detroit Tigers

Citing both his team’s 753 starter innings, a number that owes something to a spate of injuries, as well as the volatility of reliever performances year to year, I asked Harris, “What is the fewest you can get next year and return to the postseason?”

“I think the line between starter and reliever is blurring,” Harris replied. “If you watched the Tigers in the second half, we didn’t have traditional starters that started our games; we had a pitcher come in and replicate a starter’s workload. The philosophy behind that is, we felt like we could get better matchups without putting an extra strain on our bullpen. And we didn’t actually put an extra strain on our bullpen. So, I don’t think it will be hard to replicate what we did last year if we choose to pursue that nontraditional pitching strategy of a reliever starting a game, then a starter-type pitching the bulk innings, and then relievers coming in at the end of a game. Read the rest of this entry »

Andrés Muñoz has been one of baseball’s best relievers over the past three seasons. During that span, the Seattle Mariners right-hander has a 2.49 ERA, a 2.68 FIP, and a 34.7% strikeout rate over 176 games, comprising 173 1/3 innings. Acquired from the San Diego Padres as part of a seven-player trade in August 2020, Muñoz missed the entirety of that year and all but the final game of the 2021 season recovering from Tommy John surgery. He posted a 2.12 ERA and 22 saves in the just-completed campaign, both career bests.

Muñoz’s M.O. on the mound is power. Per Statcast, his four-seamer averaged 98.4 mph this season, while his two-seamer averaged 97.5 mph and his slider 87.6 mph. The velocity — but not his overall effectiveness — was actually down from the previous two years. In 2023, Muñoz’s four-seamer averaged 99.2 mph, and in 2022 it averaged 100.2 mph. His slider is his most-thrown pitch, and its speed has also ticked down a tad, although not to his detriment. With a caveat that his slider wasn’t always sharp this season, it elicited a .138 BAA, a .191 wOBA, and a 48.5% whiff rate.

The 25-year-old native of Los Mochis, Mexico sat down to talk about his repertoire and approach at Fenway Park earlier this year.

———

David Laurila: The last time we talked, you told me that you’re a bit of pitching nerd. To what extent?

Andrés Muñoz: “Yes. We have all this information, but I don’t want to put it all in my head. I try to make it simple. At the same time, I want to know where to attack the hitters. Where are their weaknesses? I use that. Like everybody, I like to have the information, but by the time I am on the mound, I’m not thinking about all the information. I’m thinking more about, ‘OK, where am I supposed to throw the pitch?’ I feel like that is the best thing for me, to have a plan for every hitter.”

Laurila: What about your pitch profiles and how you can optimize them? I assume you pay attention to that when you’re not on a game mound. Read the rest of this entry »

Cole Young is one of the shining stars of Seattle’s system. Slotted in at no. 2 with a 50 FV grade when our Mariners Top Prospects list was published in mid-summer, the 21-year-old middle infielder is coming off a second full professional season during which he slashed .271/.369/.390 with nine home runs and a 119 wRC+ over 552 plate appearances with Double-A Arkansas. Displaying above-average contact skills — a selling point when he was drafted 21st overall out of Wexford, Pennsylvania’s North Allegheny High School in 2022 — he had a 15.8% strikeout rate to go with a 12.1% walk rate.

The extent to which he will hit for power as he continues to mature was on my mind when I spoke to him prior to an Arizona Fall League game this past weekend (Young has since been removed from the Peoria Javelinas roster; per a source, he was dealing with wrist discomfort, an issue dating back to the regular season). Back in July, Eric Longenhagen wrote that Young has “added considerable bulk to his frame” since entering pro ball, and noted that “changes he’s made to his swing have resulted in him trading some contact for power.”

Asked about our lead prospect analyst’s observations, Young said that he now weighs 200 pounds, up from 190 a year ago, and is “a lot stronger after going to lifting camp” over the offseason. He sees his ideal weight in the 195-200 pound range, allowing him to “still be athletic, but also be able to hit the ball hard.” Read the rest of this entry »

Julio Rodríguez’s season was growing bleaker and bleaker by the day as he labored through the longest slump of his short career. We had expected him to get right sooner than later — after all, he’s one of the most talented players in the sport, with an explosive bat, top-shelf sprint speed, and a cannon of an arm — but it was worrisome to see him struggle for so long. He had an 86 wRC+ across 360 plate appearances at the end of June.

Over the last few months, though, Rodríguez has progressively figured things out, with his turnaround culminating with his current heater. Since July 1, he is batting .321/.377/.545 with 12 home runs and a 166 wRC+, and over his last 10 games, fueled by his .458/.471/.833 line, five homers, and 270 wRC+, he’s added 1.3 WAR to his ledger. He is a key reason why the Mariners are still in the playoff race with less than a week remaining in the season, though you could also make the case that his overall underperformance is one of the reasons why Seattle is barely hanging around. Either way, to better understand the story of Rodríguez’s season, we have to dive deeper into his struggles.

Rodríguez pitch-by-pitch performance data show he spent the first three months of the season almost exclusively hunting fastballs, which isn’t a bad idea considering he feasts on them. The problem was that because his eyes were focused only on one speed, he started swinging at any pitch that he thought might be a fastball, and as a result, he was chasing too many breaking balls and offspeed pitches.

During the first three months of this season, Rodríguez may have been the worst everyday hitter against offspeed pitches in the entire sport. Among the 260 batters who saw at least 50 offspeed pitches outside the zone through the end of June, he had the second-worst chase rate at 54.9%, behind Nick Gordon. As a result, Rodríguez had a .157 wOBA against offspeed pitches, which dragged down his overall numbers, especially because he also had trouble against breaking balls (.232 wOBA).

Rodríguez’s feast-on-fastballs approach corresponded with a swing deviation that limited his production. In previous seasons, Rodríguez thrived because of his swing variability, which allowed him to do damage against different pitches in different locations. That is an essential skill for him because he is one of the more aggressive hitters in baseball. However, during the first months of this season, because he seemed to be selling out for fastballs, his hacks were too noisy on most of his swings. That type of one-dimensional swing is designed to crush higher-velocity meatballs — and, even as he struggled, he was still doing that — but it is susceptible to pretty much everything else.

When looking at SEAGER, it becomes clearer that Rodríguez truly did have an eat-the-meatball approach. Yet despite his increased chase rate against offspeed pitches, his SEAGER has actually improved from last year. His Selectivity% is about league average as of this week, in the 54th percentile (mainly due to recent improvements), but his Hittable Pitch Take% is in the 97th percentile, meaning he is rarely letting pitches he can damage pass him by. Altogether, he is in the 95th percentile for SEAGER, a jump from last year’s 69th percentile score. At first glance, this might seem contradictory, that he’s making better swing decisions during his worst season. But just because he is swinging at hittable pitches doesn’t mean those swings have enough variability to produce against pitches with different speeds and locations.

The thing is, even though Rodríguez was hunting heaters with a swing that is tailored to damage them, it doesn’t seem like he intentionally altered his mechanics. Rather, the two changes likely came about simultaneously and spiraled as they reinforced each other. Here’s what probably happened: After getting off to a slow start, he began pressing to break out of his funk and tried to clobber the most hittable pitches he saw, leading to a one-dimensional, fastball-dependent swing.

Rodríguez is at his best when he has a flatter Vertical Bat Angle (VBA). VBA is the angle of the barrel relative to the ground at contact. So that means his best performance has come when his bat has been flatter at contact. That could mean deeper contact and/or a flatter entry into the hitting zone. Flat swings don’t work for all hitters, but for a someone like Rodríguez who creates so much bat speed deep in the zone, they typically are a recipe for success. Over the first three months of the season, Rodríguez had the steepest VBA of his career, ranging between 33.4 to 35.5 degrees; this stretch coincided with his below-average offensive production. Since the beginning of July, though, he’s flattened his VBA to somewhere between 30 and 31 degrees, much more in line with his career norms.

Rodríguez’s upper body mechanics are crucial to his swing because they determine the path his bat takes to the ball. He has a louder bat row, similar to those of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Rafael Devers, two hitters who also have swings on the flatter side. Noisy movements help batters generate power and time up their swings, but with more movement comes more room for error when something goes awry. Having an effectively loud swing requires maintenance and attention to ensure the delicate balance between power and control doesn’t fall out of whack.

If Rodríguez’s swing had unintentionally become more vertically oriented because of a different setup or row, that could have disrupted where he perceived his bat to be in space (proprioception) and hindered his contact quality and frequency. This all makes sense in theory, but let’s confirm it with some video analysis. The first two swings below are from May and the next two are from July:

May

July

You can see a much more toned-down bat row in July compared to what it was in May. Since Rodríguez isn’t moving it as aggressively in the pre-swing, his bat starts on a flatter plane when he descends into his downswing. That helps decrease the amount of time it takes to get his barrel into the zone and is more in line with where his swing has been in the past.

Now, let’s compare two swings, one from last season when he was rolling, and another from the second half of this season, as he returned to form:

2023

His mechanics aren’t identical, but they are much closer now than they were when he was struggling during the first few months of this year. Pay attention to the angle of his bat throughout the row and how far his hands drift from his body. Maintaining the connection between his barrel/hands and the rest of his upper body is paramount for him to control his barrel.

As a last piece of information to consider, I was curious about how Rodríguez’s bat speed changed as his row calmed down a bit and his swing flattened back out. This month, his bat speed has ticked up significantly compared to the first three months of the season. He’s swinging at an average velocity of 77.7 mph in September, a sizable spike from April through June, when his average swing was just under 76.0 mph. If flatter means faster, then it sounds like he should stay where he’s at right now.

Any Mariners fan would tell you that in the first few months when Rodríguez was struggling, he was clearly pressing. Any player would tell you that when you start pressing, your swing can regress because of it. You try and hack your way back to your normal numbers and get too far from the best version of yourself. It’s an intuitive story.

Considering the Mariners were just eliminated from the AL West race Tuesday night and currently sit 2.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot with four games to play, it would have been nice for them to have gotten this version of Rodríguez a bit sooner. But the season isn’t over just yet. Maybe the young superstar can propel his team into an unlikely playoff berth. After “The J-Rod Show” got off to such a slow start this year, that would be an especially epic season finale.

Except for the standings, which include Tuesday’s results, all stats are updated as of Tuesday morning.

As we head into the final week of the regular season, 15 teams still show signs of life when it comes to claiming a playoff berth. On the one hand, that sounds impressive — half the majors still contending — and it’s on par with last year and better than 2022. Nonetheless, it still boils down to just three teams falling by the wayside, and just one of the six division leads having a greater than 1% chance of changing hands. As noted previously, since the adoption of the 2022 Collective Bargaining Agreement and its four-round playoff system, the options for scheduling chaos have been replaced by the excitement of math. On-field tiebreakers are a thing of the past, with head-to-head records usually all that are required to sort things out.

On Friday I checked in on the race to secure first-round byes, which go to the teams with the top two records in each league, so today I’ll shift focus to what’s left of the Wild Card races. Thankfully, there’s still enough at stake for both leagues to offering some amount of intrigue. Read the rest of this entry »

Direct Links (Please see full job postings below):

Intern, Baseball Operations
Intern, Minor League Development

Intern, Baseball Operations

Reports To: Vice President, Baseball Administration

Status: Nonexempt

Timeline: PPreference will be given to candidates who can start by March 1, 2025, and work through mid-October 2025.

Primary Objective: Responsible for coordination, support, and assistance to the Baseball Operations department in research, administration, and day-to-day scouting operation tasks.

Essential Functions:

• Support all areas of the Pro and Amateur Scouting departments, including player evaluation, research, video clipping, and preparation for the Amateur Draft meetings.
• Provide support in Advance Scouting, including preparation of the Major League Advance Scouting report.
• Provide additional statistical analysis, economic, and financial research as assigned.
• Will perform other duties as assigned

Education and Experience:

• Bachelor’s degree preferred. Equivalent relevant work or playing experience may be considered in lieu of formal education if approved by management.
• Basic Spanish proficiency is preferred.
• Background in player evaluation is preferred.
• Background in video preparation is preferred.

Competencies, Knowledge, Skills and Abilities (KSA’s):

• Working knowledge of statistical baseball data and its application as it pertains to scouting information, baseball strategy, and current in-game management trends.
• Proficiency in Microsoft Excel and PowerPoint.
• Authentic and Aware: Exemplifies the highest standards of professionalism and ethics, demonstrating a dedication to doing the right thing and treating everyone with respect. Is self-aware and open to feedback, ability to speak the truth with a positive intent, foster a culture of honesty and builds trust with the team. Commitment to the organization’s mission is evident in both words and actions, aligned to actively contribute to the fulfillment of organizational goals.
• Communicate and Collaborate: Values others and their views, actively engaging and partnering with team members. Seeks clarity and shares information transparently, fostering a collaborative environment while influencing others and aligning support. Excels in seeking out and leveraging the right resources, engaging in teamwork with a positive and productive approach. Whether verbally or in writing, communicates in a clear and constructive manner, contributing to an engaged and efficient workplace. 
• Execute with Purpose: Takes action and demonstrates accountability, leading with a sense of urgency and dedication to achieving results. Sets and meets challenging expectations for themselves and others, making timely, data-driven decisions and taking ownership of outcomes. Approachable, engaged, and committed; sets a positive tone and cares deeply about the organization. Manages time, priorities, and resources effectively, aiming for and achieving excellence.
• Adapt and Innovate: Acts boldly, fosters innovation, and supports transformational change. Leveraging analysis and insights, develops new directions and solutions, identifying opportunities for improvement and displaying a commitment to fixing them. With an ongoing commitment to learning and self-development, overcomes challenges constructively and adjusts effectively to shifting priorities and rapid change. This approach contributes to a dynamic work environment focused on progress and continuous improvement.
• Competent in required job skills and knowledge. Completes work assignments thoroughly and completely in an accurate and prompt manner. Identifies and corrects errors. Is careful, alert, and accurate, paying attention to details of the job.

The Mariners are committed to providing a competitive total rewards package for our valued Team Members.

The anticipated compensation for this role is $20.00 per hour. We also provide complimentary parking and paid public transportation.

All benefits are subject to eligibility requirements and the terms of official plan documents which may be modified or amended from time to time.

This information is being provided in accordance with the Washington State Equal Pay and Opportunity Act.

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.

Intern, Minor League Development

Reports To: Major League Assistant Video Coordinator and Major League Video Coordinator

Status: Hourly, Non-Exempt

Timeline: The Seattle Mariners are seeking Minor League Development Interns for all Mariners Minor League Affiliates. Must be available to start by March 3rd, 2025. The expected end date is determined by the conclusion of the 2025 Minor League season. Positions will be based at Mariners Affiliates; AAA Tacoma, AA Arkansas, A+ Everett, A- Modesto, and Rookie level Peoria.

Primary Objective: Responsible for coordinating day-to-day video and technology operations associated with assigned Minor League team. This includes, but is not limited to capturing, editing, and distributing video for Minor League Coaching Staff and players, in addition to providing Advance Scouting reports prior to each home/road contest, and operating all relevant baseball technologies throughout the course of the season both at home and traveling with the club on the road.

Essential Functions:

• Capture, tag and upload video for assigned Minor League Affiliate using BATS and other related software for all home and road contests during regular season/post-season play.
• Collect video and data from bullpens, batting practice and defensive work.
• Coordinate use of performance science equipment (Portable and Stadium Trackman, Hawk-Eye, Edgertronic, Blast, etc.) and provide results to coaches and staff.
• Assist in preparing and distributing Advance Scouting reports and tools prior to each series.
• Support affiliate Trackman intern and coordinate data collection and quality control processes.
• Assist coaching staff with miscellaneous video and data-related projects.
• Serve as team point-of-contact for technological troubleshooting.
• Will perform other duties as assigned.

Education and Experience:

• High school diploma required.
• College coursework preferred.
• Prior experience with BATS video charting software, TruMedia, PitchBase, Portable Trackman, Edgertronic cameras, etc. strongly preferred.
• Previous experience with an MLB or NCAA Baseball organization strongly preferred.
• Experience with video editing software such as Movavi, Adobe Premiere Pro, etc strongly preferred.
• Must be able to correctly identify pitch types.
• Must be willing to relocate to assigned affiliate for all home and road games.

Competencies, Knowledge, Skills and Abilities (KSA’s):

• Possesses working knowledge of modern baseball analytics, strategy, and trends.
• Authentic and Aware: Exemplifies the highest standards of professionalism and ethics, demonstrating a dedication to doing the right thing and treating everyone with respect. Is self-aware and open to feedback, ability to speak the truth with a positive intent, foster a culture of honesty and builds trust with the team. Commitment to the organization’s mission is evident in both words and actions, aligned to actively contribute to the fulfillment of organizational goals. 
• Communicate and Collaborate: Values others and their views, actively engaging and partnering with team members. Seeks clarity and shares information transparently, fostering a collaborative environment while influencing others and aligning support. Excels in seeking out and leveraging the right resources, engaging in teamwork with a positive and productive approach. Whether verbally or in writing, communicates in a clear and constructive manner, contributing to an engaged and efficient workplace. 
• Execute with Purpose: Takes action and demonstrates accountability, leading with a sense of urgency and dedication to achieving results. Sets and meets challenging expectations for themselves and others, making timely, data-driven decisions and taking ownership of outcomes. Approachable, engaged, and committed; sets a positive tone and cares deeply about the organization. Manages time, priorities, and resources effectively, aiming for and achieving excellence. 
• Adapt and Innovate: Acts boldly, fosters innovation, and supports transformational change. Leveraging analysis and insights, develops new directions and solutions, identifying opportunities for improvement and displaying a commitment to fixing them. With an ongoing commitment to learning and self-development, overcomes challenges constructively and adjusts effectively to shifting priorities and rapid change. This approach contributes to a dynamic work environment focused on progress and continuous improvement. 

The Mariners are committed to providing a competitive total rewards package for our valued Team Members.

The anticipated range of base compensation for this role is $11.00 – $19.97 per hour based on the state minimum wage of the affiliate location.

All benefits are subject to eligibility requirements and the terms of official plan documents which may be modified or amended from time to time. Paid public transportation is provided in Washington State.

This information is being provided in accordance with the Washington State Equal Pay and Opportunity Act.

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Seattle Mariners.