Archive for Teams

The Reds Did Something Wild(ish), and the NL Playoff Race Persists

Frank Bowen IV/The Enquirer/USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

I was going to start this piece by acknowledging that a month ago, it would’ve been logical to write the Cincinnati Reds off. Then I remembered something: I actually did write the Reds off. From FanGraphs Dot Com, on August 29: “Unless the Reds Do Something Wild, the NL Playoff Race Is Over.”

Well, the Reds did something wild. As a rule, I try to caveat my predictions; rather than saying something absolutely will or won’t happen, I’ll use a frame like “This is extremely unlikely to happen; we’ll write about it if and when it does.” Well, from August 29 to September 22, Cincinnati went from playoff odds in the low single digits to a virtual coin flip:

Read the rest of this entry »


Daylen Lile, Washington’s Silver Lining

Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

The Nationals will remember 2025 as a gap year, if they’re lucky. The 2023 and 2024 teams, invigorated by many of the prospects acquired in the Juan Soto trade, each won 71 games, dragging Washington out of the bottom-of-table ignominy that it had occupied since winning the World Series in 2019 and then blowing up the roster. This year’s squad is going to finish with a win total in the 60s and some developmental hiccups, a step backward from the recent past. But lost in the broadly disappointing year is one bright shining beacon: Daylen Lile might just be a keeper.

Lile, a high school draftee in 2021, missed all of 2022 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, then spent the next two years methodically climbing through the minor league ranks. He started 2025 hot, with a .337/.383/.509 line in his first 40 games in the minors, and got his first taste of the majors when Jacob Young briefly hit the IL. Lile struggled during that first stint but landed in the majors for good a few weeks later when the Nats overhauled their bench. By the All-Star break, he’d carved out a role as a rotational right fielder.

That’s the boring part of this article. The exciting part? As Lile settled into big league life, opportunity beckoned. Young scuffled. Alex Call got traded. Dylan Crews was still out with injury. Lile? He just kept hitting. By August, he was locked in as a starter, and why not? Since the break, he’s hitting a sensational .323/.371/.552 for a 153 wRC+, and turning heads with his aggressive approach and hair-on-fire baserunning. Move over, other baby Nats – there’s a new top youngster in town.

Lile’s game is built around a sensational feel to hit. He regularly ran gaudy contact rates in the minor leagues, and his zone contact rate in the majors is above 90%, squarely in the upper echelon of the league. Like many hitters who make a ton of contact, Lile likes to swing. Unlike those peers, though, he’s done a good job of avoiding the over-chase downward spiral that traps so many singles hitters into lunging at sliders off the plate. Read the rest of this entry »


How Sticky Are Statcast Defensive Improvements/Declines?

Kyle Ross-Imagn Images

Last week, I wrote about my favorite award non-frontrunners this season, and there was a mini-discussion in the comments about the sustainability of Trea Turner’s defensive improvements. As we have more years of OAA/FRV, we’re better able to study long-term fielding questions with the data, so I wanted to do a quick look at FRV improvements/declines and see if those changes have held. And since there isn’t quite enough to this topic for me to give this article the full-length treatment — at least not now, while I’m trying to get my playoff predictor utility ready for 2025 — and too long for a comment 10 people will notice, this seemed like a good time for an underutilized InstaGraph©.

I started with every defensive season in which someone played 800 innings at a position in consecutive seasons. I treated corner outfield positions as different positions here, just to keep this as clean and simple as possible. Statcast defense is still a relatively new thing, so we have only 583 two-year runs for individual players. Not enough to break it down further by age or position or component in a meaningful manner, but enough to look at the bottomline numbers. When we look at three-year runs, we drop down to 277 individual players. Thanks 2020!

Of the players who had 800 innings at the same position in three consecutive seasons, here are the 30 largest gainers from the first year to the second. I used FRV/1200 instead of raw FRV.

Biggest FRV Gainers
Player Years Pos Year 1 Year 2 Diff Year 3 Year 3 vs. Year 1
Yasmani Grandal 2017-2019 C 2.4 20.8 18.4 17.5 15.1
Bobby Witt Jr. 2022-2024 SS -8.7 9.4 18.1 9.5 18.2
Travis Shaw 2016-2018 3B -7.0 10.8 17.9 5.5 12.6
Willy Adames 2021-2023 SS -6.3 10.0 16.3 11.2 17.5
Tim Anderson 2017-2019 SS -7.6 5.4 13.0 2.3 9.9
DJ LeMahieu 2016-2018 2B 2.9 15.7 12.8 12.9 10.0
Dansby Swanson 2021-2023 SS 2.6 15.1 12.4 15.0 12.4
Corey Seager 2021-2023 SS -10.5 1.9 12.4 -2.5 7.9
Kolten Wong 2017-2019 2B -2.7 9.4 12.1 3.0 5.7
Xander Bogaerts 2016-2018 SS -11.3 0.0 11.3 -4.1 7.3
Brandon Belt 2016-2018 1B 0.9 11.6 10.7 2.7 1.8
Ketel Marte 2023-2025 2B 0.0 10.3 10.3 0.0 0.0
Xander Bogaerts 2021-2023 SS -5.1 4.8 9.9 0.0 5.1
Lorenzo Cain 2017-2019 CF 9.4 19.3 9.9 9.2 -0.2
Elvis Andrus 2016-2018 SS -3.7 6.2 9.9 4.3 8.0
Carlos Correa 2016-2018 SS -12.4 -2.5 9.9 20.0 32.4
Miguel Rojas 2021-2023 SS -1.1 8.6 9.7 5.0 6.2
Anthony Rizzo 2022-2024 1B -2.3 7.4 9.7 3.0 5.3
Luis García Jr. 2023-2025 2B -6.0 3.3 9.3 -4.6 1.5
J.P. Crawford 2023-2025 SS -7.6 1.3 9.0 -7.1 0.5
Trea Turner 2017-2019 SS -2.8 6.0 8.8 2.3 5.1
Carlos Santana 2023-2025 1B 2.1 10.6 8.5 8.5 6.4
Kyle Schwarber 2017-2019 LF -5.8 2.5 8.4 -8.3 -2.5
Nathaniel Lowe 2022-2024 1B -6.3 1.7 8.0 5.0 11.4
Mike Trout 2017-2019 CF -1.3 6.7 8.0 -1.1 0.1
Eugenio Suárez 2022-2024 3B -1.0 6.9 7.9 2.6 3.7
Alex Bregman 2023-2025 3B 0.0 7.8 7.8 3.8 3.8
Tucker Barnhart 2016-2018 C 0.0 7.8 7.8 -18.2 -18.2
Kyle Tucker 2021-2023 RF 0.0 7.5 7.5 -3.6 -3.6
Marcus Semien 2022-2024 2B 2.8 10.2 7.5 12.2 9.4

Nearly two-thirds of the biggest improvers had negative FRV numbers the first season, and averaged a 10.8-run improvement in the second season. While FRV is obviously a volatile number, these players successfully retained a large portion of their one-year gains in the third season, averaging a 6.4-run improvement, with only five players going back into negative territory.

Turner’s 2024-2025 improvement in FRV/1200 is 11.7 runs, which would rank him ninth on this list, and the second-largest improvement among shortstops, behind Tim Anderson from 2017-2018. Turner doesn’t feature here because this is specifically for three-year runs, and the 2026 season hasn’t happened yet. His current Year 1-to-Year 2 gain for 2023-2024 is 4.5 runs — from -8.0 to -3.5 — and therefore not enough to make the top 30. It’s worth noting, though, that ZiPS projects him to be worth about 4.0 FRV/1200 in 2026, meaning he’d maintain about half his improvement from last year to this season.

Now, the decliners:

Biggest FRV Decliners
Player Years Pos Year 1 Year 2 Diff Year 3 Year 3 vs. Year 1
J.T. Realmuto 2022-2024 C 15.9 -10.5 -26.4 -6.9 -22.8
Keibert Ruiz 2022-2024 C -5.5 -26.0 -20.5 -8.6 -3.1
Adolis García 2023-2025 RF 8.5 -11.7 -20.3 2.2 -6.4
Brian Dozier 2017-2019 2B 10.1 -7.7 -17.7 -4.8 -14.8
Tim Anderson 2016-2018 SS 7.0 -7.6 -14.6 5.4 -1.6
Manny Machado 2023-2025 3B 13.1 0.0 -13.1 -3.9 -17.0
Adam Jones 2016-2018 CF 2.8 -9.5 -12.2 -13.2 -16.0
Matt Chapman 2021-2023 3B 13.7 1.8 -11.9 3.0 -10.7
Luis Robert Jr. 2023-2025 CF 10.9 0.0 -10.9 9.7 -1.2
Francisco Lindor 2021-2023 SS 18.7 7.8 -10.8 6.2 -12.5
Will Smith 2023-2025 C 5.0 -5.7 -10.7 -11.1 -16.1
Kyle Seager 2017-2019 3B 8.9 -1.8 -10.7 5.3 -3.6
Trevor Story 2017-2019 SS 7.1 -3.5 -10.6 15.3 8.2
Maikel Garcia 2023-2025 3B 15.4 4.8 -10.6 15.3 0.0
Evan Longoria 2017-2019 3B 4.8 -5.7 -10.5 8.1 3.2
William Contreras 2023-2025 C 12.7 2.3 -10.5 3.3 -9.5
Carlos Correa 2021-2023 SS 8.3 -2.2 -10.4 -1.0 -9.3
Billy Hamilton 2016-2018 CF 26.7 16.3 -10.4 14.5 -12.2
Willy Adames 2023-2025 SS 11.2 0.9 -10.4 2.7 -8.6
Fernando Tatis Jr. 2023-2025 RF 13.3 2.9 -10.4 7.5 -5.8
James McCann 2016-2018 C 8.5 -1.4 -10.0 0.0 -8.5
Bryson Stott 2023-2025 2B 9.3 0.0 -9.3 1.1 -8.1
Paul Goldschmidt 2021-2023 1B 4.6 -4.4 -8.9 2.1 -2.5
Brandon Belt 2017-2019 1B 11.6 2.7 -8.9 0.0 -11.6
Andrew Benintendi 2022-2024 LF -4.6 -13.4 -8.8 -10.5 -5.9
Brenton Doyle 2023-2025 CF 22.3 13.5 -8.8 13.7 -8.6
Hunter Renfroe 2021-2023 RF 5.1 -3.5 -8.6 -3.4 -8.6
Nolan Arenado 2022-2024 3B 14.0 5.5 -8.5 6.6 -7.3
Michael A. Taylor 2021-2023 CF 20.2 11.9 -8.4 10.0 -10.2
César Hernández 2016-2018 2B 3.8 -4.4 -8.2 -1.8 -5.6

The story here is similar. The 30 biggest decliners averaged an 11.7-run slide from Year 1 to Year 2. All but two of the 30 were initially in positive territory, and only two players (Trevor Story and Evan Longoria) rebounded to positive territory in Year 3. Compared to the change of -11.7 runs in the first two seasons, Year 3 was still at -7.9 runs below the first year. So again, the biggest declines generally still displayed significant deterioration of their defensive performances.

Despite my sample size misgivings, I also look at the stickiness by age or position. Unfortunately, the results weren’t terribly interesting; the sample sizes were simply too small to draw meaningful conclusions from this part of the exercise.

So, what does this mean? While you shouldn’t take the most recent FRV of a player as some magical this-is-their-true-ability number, large changes in performance are very meaningful going forward. That’s good news for Turner and Phillies fans.


Dan Hubbs Looks Back at Tarik Skubal, Casey Mize, and Will Vest, Circa 2020

Matt Blewett, Junfu Han-USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images, Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

The Detroit Tigers are in a dogfight with just six games remaining on the schedule. Not only is their lead in the American League Central down to one game over the Cleveland Guardians — their opponent the next three nights — a Wild Card berth is no sure thing if they don’t hang on to win the division. As my colleague Kiri Oler pointed out just yesterday, while their chances are promising on paper, “the error bars on those odds are huge.” In order to stave off what could reasonably be deemed a collapse, a Tigers team that has lost nine out of their last 10 is badly in need of wins down the stretch.

A trio of pitchers who will help determine Detroit’s fate were the subject of a recent conversation I had with Dan Hubbs. Now the bullpen coach for the Athletics, Hubbs was the Tigers’ director of pitching development in 2019 and 2020, a time in which Tarik Skubal, Casey Mize, and Will Vest were all on the doorstep of the majors. Skubal (who made his major league debut in 2020) is slated to start tonight, while Mize (also 2020) will be on the mound over the weekend, and Vest (2021) has a team-leading 21 saves.

Heading into the 2020 season, Skubal was no. 4 on our Tigers prospect rankings with a 50 FV, Mize was ranked no. 2 with a 60 FV, and Vest was no. 36 with a 35+ FV. How did Hubbs view them then, and what does he see from them — albeit from a distance — five years later? That was what I wanted to know.

———

Hubbs on Tarik Skubal:

“With Tarik, it was getting him to command the arm side a little bit more. He was always kind of cross body and ran balls in on guys, and he would pitch up. He’s always had the mindset. I mean, he’s an animal on the mound, and always attacking the strike zone. So, one of the biggest things now is that he commands the arm side. But what has really changed is that he never had the changeup that he has now. That’s taken him to a whole different stratosphere. He throws 100 [mph], then he has this changeup that he can throw against [righties or lefties], interchangeably with his fastball. Read the rest of this entry »


To What Extent Is Lucas Giolito Back?

James A. Pittman-Imagn Images

The Boston Red Sox enter the final week of the regular season with a one-game cushion in the AL Wild Card race, which doesn’t sound like a lot, but it is. With Boston and Detroit at 85-71 and Cleveland and Houston at 84-72, with the AL Central and two Wild Card spots on the line, this is a four-goes-into-three situation. Factor in that the Astros have been pretty anemic of late, and the Tigers — who actually end the season with a three-game set at Fenway — look like they couldn’t find their own shoes with a flashlight and a map right now, and you have to like Boston’s chances.

Our playoff odds give the Sox an 89.9% chance of making the postseason. That’s not what I’d consider a lock, but it’s pretty close. Close enough to wonder about what their playoff rotation is going to look like. Read the rest of this entry »


Shout Out to Whichever Team Wins the AL Central — You Know Who You Are

Junfu Han-USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images; David Richard-Imagn Images

On July 8, the Tigers had 59 wins, while the Guardians had just 42. With one week remaining in the regular season, the Tigers have 85 wins and the Guardians have 84. A single game separates the two teams in the race for the AL Central title, a division that seemed all but sewn up for the Tigers as recently as September 13, when Detroit’s odds to win the Central sat at 98.2%, putting Cleveland’s odds at 1.8%. As of this writing, the Tigers are still favorites to win it, at 62.7%, but given that three of Detroit’s last six games are against Cleveland, the error bars on those odds are huge.

That wild swing in divisional odds happened over the course of the last week, but such a dramatic swing could only occur because in the two months leading up to it, two teams that had been heading in opposite directions both gradually rerouted and wound up on a collision course. Through April 25, both teams were winning games at roughly a .600 clip, but their fates diverged from there. By July 8, the gap in winning percentage had widened to 167 points, which translated to an additional 17 wins for the Tigers compared to the Guardians. Ever since July 8, that divide has slowly evaporated, and now the two teams own nearly identical records. Read the rest of this entry »


Checking in on Some Second-Half Home Run Droughts

Christopher Hanewinckel, Katie Stratman, Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images

By the time the first half of the season ended, Pete Crow-Armstrong appeared to be a lock to join the 30-home run, 30-stolen base club. Elected to start the All-Star Game in center field for the NL in his first full major league season, the 23-year-old phenom had already totaled 25 homers and 27 steals. Things have not come easily since then, however; with one week to go in the regular season, Crow-Armstrong is stuck on 29 home runs, though he does have 35 stolen bases.

It was a fruitful weekend for joining the 30/30 club, with Jazz Chisholm Jr. doing so on Friday, José Ramírez on Saturday, and Corbin Carroll on Sunday; the three of them joined — improbably enough — Juan Soto. This is the fifth season in which four players have attained the dual milestones, and the second in three years, aided by the rules changes that have accompanied the introduction of the pitch clock. Any one of Crow-Armstrong, Julio Rodríguez (who has 31 home runs and 28 stolen bases), Francisco Lindor (28 HR, 31 SB), or Randy Arozarena (27 HR, 28 SB) reaching their needed thresholds would set a major league record.

Although Crow-Armstrong didn’t start against the Reds on Sunday, he came off the bench and had two chances to join the party. He flied out in one and, with the tying run at second base and two outs in the ninth, struck out looking at a borderline four-seamer to end the game. Read the rest of this entry »


The Junk Box Is Full of Mystery

Jim Rassol-Imagn Images

Every once in a while, I take a peek at the Kirby Index leaderboards. In August, the expected names that populated the top of the rankings: Kevin Gausman, Trevor Rogers, and Jacob deGrom. Similarly, the bottom featured stereotypically wild hurlers: Joe Boyle, Luis Gil, Freddy Peralta, and… Janson Junk???

Kirby Index Laggards (August)
Name Kirby Index
Ryan Pepiot 0.283
Yusei Kikuchi 0.282
Hunter Brown 0.280
Joe Boyle 0.277
Mitchell Parker 0.238
Freddy Peralta 0.181
Luis Gil 0.179
Luis Morales 0.174
Hunter Greene 0.168
Janson Junk 0.096
Source: Baseball Savant
Minimum 100 fastballs thrown. August only.

If you’re familiar with Junk, it’s most likely due to his excellent command: Among all starters with at least 70 innings pitched this season, his 3.0% walk rate ranks as the lowest. (In an excellent interview with David Laurila last month, Junk talked about training his command at Driveline over the winter.) Seeing Junk in last place on this leaderboard was like spotting a polar bear in Arlington, Texas — in other words, a sign that something was seriously amiss.

By all four components of the Kirby Index, Junk ranked poorly. But his vertical release point was particularly inconsistent, sitting dead last among pitchers in the sample. In my article from last year introducing the Kirby Index, which I linked to above, I found that the ultimate location of the pitch is dictated almost entirely by release angles and release points. It follows that pitchers with inconsistent release points exhibit poor command. How was Junk varying his release point so frequently and still throwing so many strikes? Read the rest of this entry »


Sunday Notes: Cade Horton Is an Emerging Ace With an Old-School Approach

Cade Horton hasn’t simply been one of the best rookie pitchers in MLB this year, he has been one of the better starters in the senior circuit. The 24-year-old Chicago Cubs right-hander has a record of 11-4 to go with a 2.66 ERA and a 3.53 FIP over 115 frames. Moreover, he boasts a 0.93 ERA over his last 11 starts. In Triple-A to begin the season — his Cubs’ debut came on May 10th — Horton is now poised to start for Craig Counsell’s club in October,

My colleague Michael Baumann wrote about the 2022 first-rounder just over a month ago, but given his continued success, and with the postseason looming, another article seemed in order. Already well-informed on his background and arsenal, I asked Horton about the approach he takes with him to the mound.

“I’m a guy that is going to go out there and fill up the zone,” the erstwhile Oklahoma Sooner told me prior to a recent game at Wrigley Field. “I really just try to get outs and put my team in a good position to win. I’m a competitor, so I’m attacking the strike zone.”

Attacking the strike zone is, in many ways, akin to pitching to contact — more of an old-school approach to pitching — whereas in today’s game, chasing swing-and-miss is most often the goal. Given his high-octane heater and overall plus stuff, is he not looking to miss bats? Read the rest of this entry »


Next Stop Cooperstown: Clayton Kershaw Announces His Retirement

Jordan Godfree-Imagn Images

The end of an era is coming to Los Angeles. On Thursday at Dodger Stadium, Clayton Kershaw announced that he will retire at the end of this season, and thus will make the final regular season home start of his career on Friday night. The news isn’t exactly a surprise, given that the 37-year-old lefty has been working more or less year-to-year while occasionally musing about retirement since his three-year, $39 million contract expired after the 2021 season. When Kershaw notched his 3,000th strikeout on July 2, it was generally understood as the final major milestone of his illustrious 18-year career that will one day be celebrated in Cooperstown. Just days later, commissioner Rob Manfred named him to the NL All-Star team as a “Legend Pick.”

On Thursday morning, Kershaw sent a group text to his teammates, telling them of his decision to retire. Teammates Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy both revealed that the pitcher had told them of his plans about a month ago, but swore them to secrecy. On Thursday afternoon, the Dodger released a statement regarding the iconic southpaw’s impending announcement.

At his press conference, Kershaw expressed measures of gratitude and relief, his voice occasionally cracking as he thanked the organization and his family. He said that he and his wife Ellen had been discussing his retirement all year. “Usually we wait until the offseason to make a final call, but almost going into this season, we kinda knew this was going to be it,” he said. “So [I] didn’t want to say anything in case I changed my mind, but over the course of the season, how grateful I am to have been healthy and out on the mound, being able to pitch, I think it just made it obvious that this was a good sending-off point.”

With 222 career victories, 3,039 strikeouts, 11 All-Star selections, five ERA titles, three Cy Young Awards (2011, ’13, ’14), an MVP award (2014), a Pitching Triple Crown (2011), a no-hitter (June 18, 2014), and two World Series rings (2020 and ’24), Kershaw is a surefire first-ballot Hall of Famer who will be eligible for election on the 2031 BBWAA ballot. He is 20th all-time in S-JAWS, second among active pitchers behind Justin Verlander, who has one more point (66.1 to Kershaw’s 65.1) in about 700 more career innings. Kershaw’s 2.54 ERA is the lowest of any integration-era pitcher with at least 2,500 innings:

Lowest ERA Since 1947 (Minimum 2,500 Innings)
Player Years Innings Pitched ERA
Clayton Kershaw 2008–2025 2,844 2/3 2.54
Whitey Ford 1950–1967 3,170 1/3 2.75
Jim Palmer 1965–1984 3,948 2.86
Tom Seaver 1967–1986 4,783 2.86
Juan Marichal 1960–1975 3,507 2.89
Bob Gibson 1959–1975 3,884 1/3 2.91
Pedro Martínez 1992–2009 2,827 1/3 2.93
Don Drysdale 1956–1969 3,432 2.95
Mel Stottlemyre 1964–1974 2,661 1/3 2.97
Warren Spahn 1947–1965 5,102 1/3 3.08

Adjusted for ballpark and league scoring levels, Kershaw’s ERA- is the lowest using those same parameters, barely nosing out Martínez:

Lowest ERA- Since 1947 (Minimum 2,500 Innings)
Player Years Innings Pitched ERA ERA-
Clayton Kershaw 2008-2025 2,844 2/3 2.54 65
Pedro Martínez 1992-2009 2,827 1/3 2.93 66
Roger Clemens 1984-2007 4,916 2/3 3.12 70
Whitey Ford 1950-1967 3,170 1/3 2.75 75
Randy Johnson 1988-2009 4,135 1/3 3.29 75
Greg Maddux 1986-2008 5,008 1/3 3.16 76
Roy Halladay 1998-2013 2,749 1/3 3.38 76
Max Scherzer 2008-2025 2,957 1/3 3.19 76
Kevin Brown 1986–2005 3,256 3.28 78
Justin Verlander 2005-2025 3,557 1/3 3.32 78
Bob Gibson 1959-1975 3,884 1/3 2.91 78

If you’re wondering about the rankings of another three-time Cy Young-winning Dodgers lefty, Sandy Koufax pitched to a 2.76 ERA and 75 ERA- in 2,324 1/3 innings; at a 2,000-inning cutoff, he would rank fourth in ERA and seventh in ERA-. Kershaw is tied with outfielder Zack Wheat and shortstop Bill Russell for the most seasons played with the Dodgers (18), and he holds the franchise records for strikeouts and pitching WAR (78.7 fWAR, 77.6 bWAR) while ranking second in wins only to Don Sutton (233).

After reaching free agency following the 2021, ’22 and ’23 seasons, Kershaw mulled the possibility of leaving the Dodgers to sign with the Rangers, his hometown team. But between his various offseason rehabilitation programs, the 2021–22 owners’ lockout, and the Rangers’ financial uncertainty regarding their cable television deal, staying with the team that drafted him out of Highland Park High School with the seventh pick in 2006 — a round that accounts for eight Cy Youngs between Kershaw, 10th pick Tim Lincecum, and 11th pick Max Scherzer — always made more sense. When he reported to Camelback Ranch in February, Kershaw admitted that he may have previously undervalued the possibility of spending his entire career with the Dodgers:

“I don’t think I put enough merit on it at times, what it means to be able to be in one organization for your entire career. You look at people throughout all of sports that have been able to do that, and it is special, it is. I don’t want to lose sight of that. Getting to be here for my whole career, however long that is, is definitely a goal.”

It’s been an amazing run in Los Angeles. Kershaw first turned heads during spring training in 2008. In a March 9 Grapefruit League game against the Red Sox, 10 days short of his 20th birthday, he threw a curveball that buckled the knees of Sean Casey and awed broadcaster Vin Scully, whose nickname for that big-bending pitch stuck: “Ohhh, what a curve ball! Holy mackerel! He just broke off Public Enemy Number One. Look at this thing! It’s up there, it’s right there, and Casey is history.”

Kershaw began that season at Double-A Jacksonville, making 11 starts before being called up to debut against the Cardinals on May 25, 2008. In his prime, he pumped his fastball in the mid-90s — it averaged 95.0 mph in his rookie season, and was still at 94.3 mph as of 2015 — but that famous curveball and its similarly devastating cousin, his slider, are the pitches that have earned him a spot in the pantheon. According to Baseball Savant — which covers the entirety of his career via PITCHf/x and Statcast — batters have hit .145 and slugged .216 with a 36.5% whiff rate against his curve, and hit .183 and slugged .292 with a 38.8% whiff rate against his slider; the former was strike three 753 times, the latter a jaw-dropping 1,332 times.

Though he flirted with adding a changeup here and there, and over the past three seasons has dabbled with an effective splitter, Kershaw’s three-pitch combination, coming from an extremely over-the-top arm slot (62 degrees as of 2020, the first year of Statcast’s measurements in that area, and 56 degrees as of this season), with a familiar hesitation at the top of his delivery, was enough to befuddle batters. His .211 batting average allowed is the second lowest at the 2,500-inning cutoff since integration, nestled between Nolan Ryan (.204) and Martínez (.214), while his 65 OPS+ allowed is second to Martínez’s 61, ahead of Clemens’ third-ranked 68. That dominance drove his success, and that of the Dodgers, for the better part of the past two decades. If the team holds on to win the NL West this season, it will be its 14th division title in his 18 seasons, and its 15th playoff berth.

Kershaw’s announcement comes at a time when he has begun to scuffle a bit; over his last three starts, he’s yielded 10 runs and walked nine in 13 2/3 innings, and he hasn’t lasted six innings since his August 15 start against the Padres — a memorable outing in which he helped the Dodgers halt a four-game losing streak and reclaim a share of first place in the NL West. Even so, he has generally pitched well this season despite working with a fastball that has averaged just 89 mph, topping 90 only a handful of times per start.

After undergoing a pair of offseason surgeries — one to repair the torn meniscus in his left knee, the other to remove a bone spur and repair a ruptured plantar plate in his left foot — Kershaw didn’t make his season debut until May 17. But aside from a start skipped just before the All-Star break, he’s taken the ball on turn, though almost always with five or six days of rest. In 102 innings, he’s pitched to a 3.53 ERA and 3.59 FIP, offsetting a career-low 17% strikeout rate by holding batters to a 4.1% barrel rate and generally avoiding the long ball. The solo homer he allowed to the Padres’ Ramón Laureano in that August 15 outing is the only one he’s served up in his last 60 1/3 innings dating back to July 2. That was the night he struck out Vinny Capra of the White Sox with the 100th and final pitch of his night — a slider on the outside edge of the plate, naturally — to give him an even 3,000 for his career.

That strikeout made Kershaw the 20th pitcher to reach 3,000 but just the fourth left-hander, after Steve Carlton, Randy Johnson, and CC Sabathia. While Kershaw was the fourth-fastest pitcher to reach the milestone in terms of innings pitched, getting there turned into quite a slog due to his injuries, which have prevented him from making 30 starts in any season since 2015 and sent him to the injured list at least once in every season since.

Kershaw finished the 2021 season, his age-33 campaign, needing just 330 strikeouts to reach 3,000, which based on his 2019–21 performances looked doable across a pair of 25-start seasons. While he pitched his way onto the NL All-Star teams in both 2022 and ’23, with ERAs of 2.28 and 2.46, he totaled just 46 starts and 274 strikeouts in that span, leaving him 56 strikeouts shy of the magic mark. With last season bracketed by his recovery from November 2023 surgery to repair the glenohumeral ligaments and capsule of his left shoulder on one side, and the aforementioned left leg surgeries on the other, he made just seven starts totaling 30 innings, with just 24 strikeouts. He was not on the active roster during the Dodgers’ run to a championship, and at the team’s victory parade in Los Angeles, he exclaimed, “I didn’t have anything to do with this championship, but it feels like I have the best feeling in the world — that I get to celebrate with you guys!”

As for what comes next for Kershaw after Friday’s start, it’s not yet clear. Barring an injury, he will almost certainly be on the postseason roster, but unlike the past two Octobers, the Dodgers are headed toward the playoffs with their best starters healthy and effective. Indeed, since the All-Star break, the Dodgers have the majors’ best rotation in terms of both ERA (3.27) and FIP (2.99); the latter mark is nearly three-quarters of a run better than that of the second-ranked Phillies (3.70). Every starter but Kershaw is missing bats galore:

Dodgers Starting Pitchers Since the All-Star Break
Player GS IP K% BB% HR/9 ERA FIP
Yoshinobu Yamamoto 10 63 1/3 32.0% 8.6% 0.57 2.56 2.55
Tyler Glasnow 10 59 1/3 29.3% 10.3% 0.91 2.88 3.49
Emmet Sheehan 8 52* 30.3% 8.7% 1.21 3.46 3.51
Clayton Kershaw 10 51.1 17.1% 7.1% 0.18 3.68 2.93
Blake Snell 8 46 1/3 34.1% 9.2% 0.58 2.53 2.37
Shohei Ohtani 8 32 33.1% 5.3% 0.84 3.94 2.27
*Includes two bulk relief appearances totaling eight innings.

There’s no question that Glasnow, Snell, and Yamamoto will start for the Dodgers this October, and all signs point to Ohtani being the fourth. The team has kept the two-way superstar on a short leash in his first season back from his second UCL reconstruction surgery; only twice has he reached the five-inning mark or gone past 70 pitches. Though the Dodgers have considered the possibility of using Ohtani in relief à la the 2023 World Baseball Classic championship game, that prospect is complicated by the fact that removing him would cost the team its designated hitter spot — thus requiring Ohtani to play the outfield in order to remain in the game, something he hasn’t done since 2021. Manager Dave Roberts all but shut that alternative scenario down earlier this week, saying in part, “[T]o think that now it’s feasible for a guy that’s just coming off what he’s done last year, or didn’t do last year, to then now put him in a role that’s very, very unique… You potentially could be taking on risk, and we’ve come this far, certainly with the kid gloves and managing.”

As for the other two starters, Sheehan has been brilliant lately but may face an innings cap given in his first year back from Tommy John surgery. Both he and Kershaw could be used as multi-inning relievers, possibly able to go three or four innings after a starter goes five or six, which would help to mitigate a bullpen that’s been torched for a 5.43 ERA this month. “I feel that there’s a place for him on our postseason roster,” Roberts said of Kershaw on Thursday. “I don’t know what role, but I think that the bottom line is, I trust him. And so, for me, the postseason is about players you trust.”

The postseason has often been a fraught subject when it comes to Kershaw. His 4.49 ERA in October is nearly two full runs higher than his regular season mark, and his 3.81 postseason FIP nearly one run higher than his regular season one (2.85), with his home run rate almost doubling, from 0.74 to 1.39. At times he’s been let down by his offenses and his bullpens, as is the case for just about every starting pitcher given enough opportunities. At times he’s been let down by his managers; think Don Mattingly leaving him in to allow eight seventh-inning runs in the 2014 Division Series opener against the Cardinals. At times he’s been let down by his opponents’ skullduggery and his own hubris; in the wake of commissioner Rob Manfred’s investigation into the Astros’ 2017 sign-stealing scheme, Kershaw expressed regret in early 2020 that he didn’t heed warnings to change signs with a runner on second base in Game 5 of the World Series, during which he allowed six runs. And of course, at times Kershaw has been let down by his own failing body; he retired just one out of eight Diamondbacks in the Division Series opener in 2023 while pitching through the shoulder issues that led him to undergo surgery less than a month later.

While his postseason heroics never reached the level of a Gibson or a Madison Bumgarner, Kershaw has had some shining moments in October. He made a dominant pair of starts against the Braves in the 2013 Division Series, allowing one earned run in 13 innings. He came out of the bullpen on one day of rest to record a two-out save in Game 5 of the 2016 Division Series against the Nationals, after closer Kenley Jansen had thrown 2 1/3 innings; Kershaw followed that with seven shutout innings against the Cubs in Game 2 of the NLCS. He struck out 11 while allowing one run and three hits in seven innings against the Astros in the 2017 World Series opener at Dodger Stadium, where Houston’s notorious trash cans were out of reach. He spun eight shutout innings with 13 strikeouts against the Brewers in the 2020 NL Wild Card Series clincher, and authored two gutty wins in that year’s World Series against the Rays, the second of which, in Game 5, came after Tampa Bay’s bizarre walk-off win in Game 4 and set up the Dodgers’ chance to clinch.

Regarding Kershaw’s career, one other blemish can’t escape mention. Twice in the past three seasons, he has upstaged the Dodgers’ annual LGBTQ Pride Night, and it’s cost him some amount of goodwill. In 2023, he publicly pressured the Dodgers to rescind an invitation to the Sisters of Perpetual Indulgence, a drag troupe that describes itself as a “leading-edge Order of queer and trans nuns.”

The Dodgers at first heeded the calls of Kershaw and others to disinvite the Sisters, only to reverse course after they received backlash for canceling on them. But Kershaw’s comments did force the team to accelerate its announcement of its Christian Faith and Family Day, for which the pitcher served as the primary organizer. “This has nothing to do with the LGBTQ community or Pride or anything like that,” he said at the time. “This is simply a group that was making fun of a religion — that I don’t agree with.”

It might have been easier for some to overlook Kershaw’s reaction to the Sisters as an isolated incident had it not been for this year’s Dodgers Pride Night on June 13, when Kershaw altered his cap, which featured the team’s interlocking LA filled in with the colors of the rainbow. On it, he wrote “Gen. 9:12-16,” an Old Testament verse that, as Michael Elizondo at True Blue LA notes, has been “frequently used by homophobic Christians to denounce the LGBT community as their appropriation of the rainbow is allegedly blasphemous.” On a night meant to celebrate diversity, Kershaw instead chose a message of defiance and intolerance.

Particularly in these politically polarizing times, with LGBTQ+ rights under daily attack by the Trump administration, Kershaw’s move was divisive and disappointing, but it went unchallenged on the Dodgers beat even as the photo of him wearing the altered hat went viral. As best I can tell, he’s never publicly commented on the matter, so if a picture is worth a thousand words, he’s left that image to be his statement on the subject without offering any alternative interpretations. Three months later, the cap controversy was still being referred to on social media as news of Kershaw’s retirement announcement began to circulate.

Kershaw is not without his imperfections, his impact in the game not without complication. Inarguably, he has defined one of the most fruitful eras in Dodgers history while carving his own niche, not only as one of the best pitchers of his generation, but of all time. His public persona has been marked by his charitable foundation, Kershaw’s Challenge, which according to its web page has raised $23 million “to support at-risk children and families around the globe,” as well as his comments denouncing racial injustice in June 2020, in the wake of the murder of George Floyd. Yet it also carries with it his Pride Night remarks and protest at a moment of profound vulnerability for the LGBTQ+ community. To appreciate Kershaw’s immense legacy is to view him in his totality, the greatness, the disappointments, and everything in between, all taken together.