At this point, it seems like common knowledge that the sinker has fallen out of favor. We’ve covered that development pretty often here at FanGraphs over the past couple of years. In fact, here’s Jeff Sullivan doing just that in a 2017 piece called, “Baseball is Moving Away From the Sinker:”

“The league got a whole hell of a lot better at hitting the low pitch out of the ballpark. Not exclusively the low pitch, but disproportionately the low pitch. Swings started to gear up for elevating the low sinker. This is something that’s continuing today. Where many of those swings have a vulnerability is up, around the belt. The uppercut swing can have trouble connecting with pitches in the upper half, and those pitches have long gotten swings and misses, anyhow. Sinkers? Sinkers are supposed to be low. They’re not so good at the thigh.”

Since then, homer totals have soared and sinker usage rates have fallen. For those still working with a sinker, it’s often their worst pitch. This is true for Noah Syndergaard, Chris Archer, and even a guy like Aaron Sanchez, who has notably reduced his sinker usage since he was traded to Houston.

That doesn’t mean the sinker is entirely dead. The most obvious example of a guy with an effective one is Zack Britton, who’s riding his sinker to a near-80% ground-ball rate this year. Britton’s a unicorn, but there are still several “normal” pitchers succeeding with sinkers too. Look at the top of the pitch value leaderboard, and you’ll see a decidedly normal pitcher with a good sinker in Julio Teheran. Read the rest of this entry »

Despite last week’s home run heroics by Bryce Harper, the Phillies’ playoff hopes have faded in recent weeks, and it doesn’t appear as though things will get easier going forward. On Saturday, the team revealed that Jake Arrieta, who had landed on the injured list with a bone spur in his right elbow earlier in the week, will undergo season-ending surgery later this month, and that reliever David Robertson had undergone Tommy John surgery earlier in the week. While neither situation was entirely unexpected, together the injuries highlight the mix of misfortune and underperformance that have placed the Phillies — who at 64-60 are nine games out in the NL East, and 1 1/2 back in the Wild Card race — in this position.

The 33-year-old Arrieta hadn’t missed a single start before landing on the IL, but had been increasingly ineffective as the season worn on. Following a pretty good April (3.46 ERA, 4.32 FIP, 6.5 innings per start), he had pitched to a 5.12 ERA and 5.12 FIP the rest of the way while averaging just 5.37 innings per start; he hadn’t completed the sixth inning since June 30. On July 7, after an outing in which he’d been touched for 11 hits and hit three batters in 4.1 innings against the Mets, a team source told The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Matt Gelb that he was pitching through a bone spur. The spur, which is the size of a marble, has apparently bothered Arrieta for the past two seasons, and is the recurrence of a spur he had removed eight years ago, while a member of the Orioles.

The Phillies were aware of the bone spur — which raises the question of why they settled for Jason Vargas as their lone rotation addition at the July 31 deadline — and had monitored Arrieta, who had worked to find different grips to help alleviate the pain that particularly hampered him when throwing his curve and changeup. He had become much more reliant upon the latter pitch in recent years, and was using the former much more often as this season went on:

Per Pitch Info, Arrieta had thrown the changeup 18.3% of the time this year, up from 10.4% last year and 7.4% in 2017. The change has been fairly effective for him this year, with a 46.2% O-Swing rate, a 15.2% swinging strike rate, and a 64 wRC+ on plate appearances ending with the pitch. His swinging strike rate on the curve had dropped by half relative to last year, from 13.0% to 6.5%, even as his wRC+ on PAs ending with the pitch dropped from 141 to 51.

Arrieta’s final numbers — 4.64 ERA, 4.89 FIP, 9.9 K-BB%, and 1.0 WAR in 135.2 innings — mark the fourth straight season in which he’s declined in all of those categories, while his 18.5% strikeout rate marked his fifth straight season of decline. That’s an ominous trend for any pitcher, and it’s one likely to carry significant financial ramifications for Arrieta, who has one more year and $20 million remaining on a three-year, $75 million deal signed in March 2018. Arrieta could opt out of his contract this winter, but would hit the market on the heels of his worst season since breaking through with the Cubs in 2014. If he does opt out, the Phillies can override that by restoring his $20 million 2020 salary and exercising a two-year, $40 million option for 2021-22, one whose annual salaries would have escalated to $25 million or higher based on starts (beginning at 25 starts; he had 24 this year) and top-three Cy Young award finishes.

While the Phillies entered the season with a rotation that placed 12th in our Positional Power Rankings, the unit as a whole entered Sunday ranked 16th in the majors in ERA- (103, via a 4.57 ERA), 26th in FIP- (110, via a 4.98 FIP), and 24th in home run rate (1.64 per nine). Aaron Nola is the only starter who has been better than average in both ERA and FIP:

Arrieta’s loss for the remainder of the season returns Eflin to the starting five; he was ousted when Vargas was acquired. Velazquez and Smyly, the latter of whom was picked up after being released by the Rangers earlier this year, round out the unit right now, with Pivetta having been relegated to the bullpen.

Speaking of which… the 34-year-old Robertson, whom the Phillies signed to a two-year, $23-million deal in January, arrived from the Bronx with a reputation as one of the most durable and reliable relievers in the game — “about as steady as it gets,” as Jeff Sullivan illustrated at the time of the signing. He was one of only two pitchers to throw at least 60 major league innings every year from 2010 (his first full season in the majors) through 2018; Tyler Clippard was the other. During that span, only the well-traveled Clippard and the Dodgers’ Kenley Jansen threw more innings out of the bullpen than his 589.2, and only Aroldis Chapman, Jansen, and Craig Kimbrel delivered more value than his 13.4 WAR. He had evolved somewhat as a pitcher in that span, as Sullivan pointed out, using his breaking stuff with increasing frequency relative to his cut fastball with no loss of effectiveness. He had also shown a welcome flexibility, working as a closer, a setup man, and a fireman who might show up in the fifth or six inning  — or even the third — if the occasion merited it, all without complaint, making him an ideal addition for any aspiring contender.

Alas, Robertson struggled out of the gate for the Phillies, and after making seven appearances totaling 6.2 innings, hit the injured list in mid-April with a Grade 1 flexor strain. He began ramping up towards a return in late June, but his progress was slow, and he suffered setbacks. By the end of July, it appeared that he would need season-ending surgery for the flexor, with Tommy John surgery a possibility. After a consultation with Dr. James Andrews, he underwent the surgery last Thursday, which could cost him all of next season as well as the remainder of this one. The Phillies do hold a $12 million club option with a $2 million buyout for his services in 2021.

If Robertson’s injury were an isolated problem within the Phillies’ bullpen, they probably could have overcome it, but the unit that placed fourth in our preseason Positional Power Rankings has lost five of its six top forecast relievers to injuries, and all of them are still sidelined:

Thus, the Phillies’ relief corps — which entered Sunday ranked ninth in the NL in bullpen ERA (4.65) and 12th in FIP (4.93) and WAR (0.0) — has lost more player-days and dollars to the injured list than that of any other team. Excluding position players, they’ve used 26 relievers. Via Spotrac:

Note that on the rankings page, the Mariners show up with a higher dollar figure than the Phillies; for some reason, the site has classified Félix Hernández as a reliever, though all eight of his appearances before hitting the IL with a shoulder strain were as a starter. I’ve removed his data from the above table, and likewise other misclassified pitches including Velazquez and the Nationals’ Jeremy Hellickson.

Dominguez, who received a platelet-rich plasma injection on June 14, began a throwing program in early August, and there’s still hope he can return this year. Neshek received a PRP injection for his Grade 2 hamstring strain in July and is hopeful for a September return. Morgan is set to be re-examined on Wednesday, at which point his timeline will be clarified.

While those returns would be helpful — particularly that of Dominguez — they’re not likely to change the trajectory of the team’s season. The Phillies held at least a share of first place in the NL East for nearly the entire season up through June 11, but they’ve gone just 27-30 since then as the injuries have caught up, and the Mets’ recent surge has left Philadelphia scrambling to hold on to third place in the division. This graph of their division playoff odds tells the sad story:

The Phillies aren’t out of contention yet, but if they do come up short, it won’t all be on Harper and the lineup’s other newcomers for their comparatively lukewarm performances. That hasn’t helped, but in the end, it will be the slew of pitching injuries that does them in.

Aaron Bates has a dual role with the Dodgers. The 35-year-old former first baseman serves as the team’s assistant hitting coach, and he’s also the director of hitting for the minor leagues. Now in his fifth year with Los Angeles, he works in conjunction with big-league hitting coach Robert Van Scoyoc, and hitting strategist Brant Brown.

A third-round pick out of North Carolina State by Boston in 2006, Bates played eight professional seasons — he logged 12 plate appearances with the Red Sox in 2009 — before joining the coaching ranks. His final swings came with the Dodgers in 2014, the same year he was asked to help tutor up-and-coming prospects such as Scott Schebler and Corey Seager. From there he served as a hitting coach in the Arizona, Midwest, and California leagues. In 2018, he became the assistant hitting coordinator for LA’s minor league system.

Bates sat down to talk hitting when the Dodgers visited Fenway Park in mid-July.

———

David Laurila: How are hitters in the Dodgers’ system taught, and evaluated?

Aaron Bates: “Brownie and Robert are both unbelievable. They have a way of communicating with players that is simplistic, makes sense, and provides answers. They can say, ‘This is why you’re making outs,” or ‘This is why you’re doing that.’ When you can provides answers to a player, it’s a breath of fresh air for him.

“It’s extremely important to be upfront with the players. We let them know there are numbers we value, as far as them being promoted, and they’re not necessary your baseball-card numbers. It could be OPS, wRC+, and their walk and strikeout rates. We let them know it’s not solely based on their batting averages.

“We let them know what we consider a good at-bat. We’re process-oriented, so if you line out, don’t get mad, and if you get a bloop single, don’t get extra happy. Over the course of the season, what we want is for them to hit the ball hard. That, and to be process-oriented. Read the rest of this entry »

Jack Little may well become a big-league pitcher. Ditto a member of a big-league front office. Drafted in the fifth round this year out of Stanford University, the 21-year-old right-hander possesses the potential to do both. For now, he’s taking the mound for the Great Lakes Loons, the low-A affiliate of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

On Friday, I asked Little about the genesis of his low-three-quarter arm slot.

“That’s a good question, honestly,” replied the righty, who has a 2.05 ERA in 22 professional innings. “In high school I was more high three-quarters — a normal three-quarters slot — but then I kind of just naturally moved lower. It wasn’t intentional, I just did it.”

Success followed. Little began getting more swings-and-misses with his fastball, and unlike many pitchers who move to a lower slot, the movement wasn’t downward. “I started missing above barrels a lot more,” Little explained. “I became more deceptive, and while I’m not 98 [mph] — I’m only low 90s — it kind of gets on the hitter, and plays more up in the zone.”

His slider is his best secondary pitch, which didn’t used to be the case. Prior to moving into the closer role at Stanford in his sophomore season, Little’s changeup was his go-to off-speed. He subsequently became fastball-heavy, with his changeup in his back pocket, and his slider a reasonably reliable No. 2 option… this despite its being, as he now knows, markedly unrefined. Read the rest of this entry »

Last night, the Cubs entered the bottom the ninth inning with a 5-1 lead and a 98.3% chance of winning the game according to our Play Logs. After recording the first out, the win probability moved up to 99.4%, but after an error, three singles, and a hit batter, the Cubs’ lead was cut to 5-3 and Bryce Harper stepped up to the plate against Derek Holland with the bases loaded, and the Phillies’ win expectancy had moved up to 32.3%. Then it moved up to 100% when this happened:

As far as pitches go, it wasn’t necessarily a bad one. There have been over 500 pitches this season of at least 94 mph in a left-on-left matchup where the pitcher hit the inside corner or further inside. Only 35 such pitches resulted in base hits, with a .276 BABIP and .143 ISO. There were only four homers on pitches like that, and after last night, Harper has two of them, with another coming in June off Max Fried.

Harper’s homer last night took a long time to land. Read the rest of this entry »

We have a sizable collection of players to talk about this week because the two of us have been busy wrapping up our summer looks at the 2020 Draft class over the last couple weeks. This equates to every prospect added to or moved on THE BOARD since the Trade Deadline.

Top 100 Changes
We had two players enter the 50 FV tier in Diamondbacks SS Geraldo Perdomo and Padres C Luis Campusano. Perdomo is in the “Advanced Baseball Skills” player bucket with players like Vidal Brujan, Brayan Rocchio and Xavier Edwards. He’s added visible power since first arriving in the States and had as many walks as strikeouts at Low-A before he was promoted to the Cal League, which has been Campusano’s stomping ground all summer. He’s still not a great catcher but he does have an impact arm, big power, and he’s a good enough athlete that we’re optimistic he’ll both catch and make the necessary adjustments to get to his power in games down the line.

We also moved a D-back and a Padre down in RHP Taylor Widener and 1B Tirso Ornelas. Widener has been very homer prone at Triple-A a year after leading the minors in K’s. His fastball has natural cut rather than ride and while we still like him as a rotation piece, there’s a chance he continues to be very susceptible to the long ball. Ornelas has dealt with injury and swing issues.

On Aristides Aquino
Aristides Aquino was a 50 FV on the 2017 Reds list; at the time, he was a traditional right field profile with big power undermined by the strikeout issues that would eventually cause his performance to tank so badly that he became a minor league free agent. A swing change visually similar to the one Justin Turner made before his breakout (Reds hitting coach Turner Ward comes from the Dodgers) is evident here, so we’re cautiously optimistic Aquino will be a productive role player, but we don’t think he’ll keep up a star’s pace. Read the rest of this entry »

50 games into his major league career, Yordan Alvarez has a 183 wRC+ and has been worth 2.3 WAR. Let’s take a look at what we might be able to reasonably expect from the 22-year-old slugger moving forward. Here is how Alvarez compares to the rest of the league:

When you hit the ball hard and at a good launch angle often, and draw walks often, good things generally happen in the batter’s box. This has been true for Alvarez thus far. According to Statcast’s Erdős number calculations, among the most similar hitters to Alvarez this year are Christian Yelich, Pete Alonso, and Jorge Soler.

Of course, most of the hitters on the major league leaderboards are several years older than Alvarez. At just 22-years-old, he is currently sixth in the major leagues in barrels per plate appearance, behind such hitters as Mike Trout and Joey Gallo, and ahead of hitters like Yelich and Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger. In barrels per batted ball event, he is ninth. No one above him on either list is his age. Alvarez’s xwOBA (.420) is sixth in baseball and also better than two other young bat-first prospects with above average batted ball profiles. Juan Soto, last year’s offensive wunderkind, currently sits at .410, while Keston Hiura is at .365. Soto, who is younger than Alvarez, doesn’t hit the ball quite as hard or do so as often as Alvarez, but he draws more walks. Hiura, who about 10 months older, hits the ball harder more often, but also draws fewer walks and swings and misses more. Read the rest of this entry »

Over the past few seasons, fans of the Cincinnati Reds have gotten used to watching third baseman Eugenio Suárez improve year after year. When he was acquired from the Detroit Tigers in December 2014 with former first-round pick Jonathon Crawford in exchange for Alfredo Simon, he was a glove-first shortstop who had a decent track record of hitting in the minors but lacked any loud offensive tools. After arriving in Cincinnati, he began to piece his game together one season at a time.

In 2015, he showed modest power but walked just 4.3% of the time and was a liability in the field. In 2016, he kept that power but improved his glove and doubled his walk rate, finishing with a 93 wRC+ and 1.3 WAR. In 2017, he boosted his power as well as his ability to walk while becoming a plus defensive third baseman, and he finished with a 116 wRC+ and 3.9 WAR. Last year, his power once again took a great step forward, and his wRC+ swelled to 135 while his WAR stayed at 3.9.

That kind of exponential growth was exciting to see out of Suárez, who signed a 7-year, $66-million extension before the 2018 season. He clocked in at No. 32 on our Trade Value rankings last year, and he appeared to be just a step away from the game’s elite third basemen. This season, however, the 28-year-old hasn’t provided quite the same value.

At 33 homers, he’s one away from tying a career high with six weeks left on the schedule. But aside from another precipitous increase in power, his numbers elsewhere have deteriorated from where they stood last year. His wRC+ is down 16 points, and his typically consistent strikeout rate is up four points. Those aren’t concerning figures on their face — he’s still well above average in terms of cumulative offensive production thanks to a 10% walk rate in addition to his power — but it’s his underlying contact stats that tell an unpleasant tale. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s no secret that Nick Anderson is one of my favorite pitchers. When he ran a near-50% strikeout rate for the first month or two of the year, only months removed from being traded by the Twins to avoid a roster crunch, I was hooked by the story. More than the story, I was hooked by his curveball, a mid-80s, 12-6 snapping thing that ate batters alive:

Of course, I wasn’t the only person to notice, not by a long shot: the 37% strikeout rate he ran with the Marlins was a top-10 rate in baseball, and that’s not exactly easy to fake. The curve clearly played, getting whiffs on 53.7% of swings, third-highest in baseball for a curveball, and it wasn’t just numbers on a spreadsheet either — you can’t watch that pitch to Carson Kelly above and not say “ooh that’s nasty.”

When the Rays traded for Anderson at the deadline, I was elated. Anderson wasn’t exactly a household name, but he is in my household, and it was quite a thrill seeing a playoff-contending team, one who employs a noted reliever discoverer, concur with me that Anderson was a monster. The Rays don’t quite have the same reputation as the Astros for improving pitchers, but they do have a reputation for getting the most out of relievers, and an unlocked Nick Anderson sounded amazing to me. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s a rough time to be a catcher. Over the last couple of years, we’ve seen catcher offensive production drop to extreme lows. Last year, major league backstops compiled 49.9 WAR, the lowest total since 2004, and their collective wRC+ was just 84, the lowest mark since 2002. In this day and age, it’s not uncommon to see teams select their starting backstops based on their defensive prowess and ability to handle a pitching staff rather than their ability to contribute offensively. That’s the only explanation for why Jeff Mathis continues to receive plate appearances despite a running a wRC+ that’s in the single digits.

For most teams, the backup catcher is an afterthought on the roster, selected for his ability to competently go about his duties without hurting the team too much. Most backup catchers see the field once or twice a week, three times if they’re lucky, so their effect on the overall production of the lineup is rather minimal. But there are a few squads this year who have been blessed with an abundance of catching riches.

Five teams have received more than three wins from their catching corps in 2019:

Read the rest of this entry »