By all reasonable accounts, the 2024 Kansas City Royals had a successful season. Fortune usually frowns upon a 100-loss team that makes a bunch of low-key free agent signings, but that was not the case for the Royals. The veterans starters they added, Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha, joined Cole Ragans to make up one of the best top-of-the-rotation trios in the majors, and Bobby Witt Jr. ascended from promising young star to MVP candidate. They made some smart deadline moves to bolster their bullpen, and they benefitted from some pleasant surprises along the way. Thanks to all of these things, the Royals won 30 more games in 2024 than they did the year before, and as a result, they made the playoffs for the first time since they won the 2015 World Series. While there was no improbable dash to the World Series this time, the Royals did at least eliminate the Baltimore Orioles, and although they fell to the Yankees in the ALDS, all four games were close. Moral victories may not count for much in professional sports, but Kansas City fans ought to be delighted with what this team accomplished last season.
However, successful doesn’t mean perfect, and the Royals did have some significant flaws. The most glaring one was a team offense that was full of holes. The Royals scored enough runs to support their excellent pitching, enough to rank a healthy sixth in the American League in runs per game (4.54), but it was an extremely unbalanced effort. Witt carried more than his fair share of the overall load, with his 10.4 WAR accounting for more than half of the total 20 WAR Kansas City got from its position players. From three of the four most offense-heavy positions, first base, the outfield corners, and designated hitter, the Royals received an embarrassing lack of production. First base was fine, if unspectacular, manned by Vinnie Pasquantino and Salvador Perez, but the outfield corners combined for an OPS south of .650 and a brutal -2.5 WAR, and Kansas City DHs combined for a 77 wRC+, the fourth-worst production in the majors from that position. With Witt’s season and a bare level of competence from these three positions, Kansas City’s offense should’ve been one of the top three or four in the AL. Instead, what the Royals got from the two corner outfield spots and DH was — and I’ll put it generously — below a bare level of competence. Read the rest of this entry »
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the Mets re-signing Pete Alonso, the Twins signing Harrison Bader, and the compressed standings in the newly released FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus playoff odds. Then they preview the 2025 Tampa Bay Rays (31:35) with MLB.com’s Adam Berry, and the 2025 Milwaukee Brewers (1:09:55) with the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Curt Hogg.
Jose Altuve, left fielder? The nine-time All-Star second baseman first suggested last month that he’d be willing to change positions in order to accommodate the potential return of free agent Alex Bregman. While a reunion with the third baseman may be a long shot at this point, Altuve has spent the past couple weeks taking fly balls. The team indicated earlier this week that he’ll get an extended look at the new position during spring training, and could split his time between left field and second base during the regular season. Whether it will work is another matter.
The Astros still have a six-year, $156 million offer on the table for Bregman, by far the top free agent remaining on the market, but the Tigers are in hot pursuit of him, and the Blue Jays, Cubs, and Red Sox have also shown interest. On Tuesday, Astros general manager Dana Brown made some headlines and raised some eyebrows when he described the team as having “lost [Kyle] Tucker and Bregman,” putting the third baseman in the past tense alongside the since-traded right fielder. However, Brown quickly acknowledged, “We’re continuing to have internal conversations because he’s still available.”
Those discussions have included how the Astros would align their infield in the event Bregman returned. In the December trade that sent Tucker to the Cubs, they received Isaac Paredes, who has major league experience at all four infield positions but has spent 86% of his innings at third over the past two seasons. A week later, they signed free agent Christian Walker to fill their first base vacancy. With Jeremy Peña entrenched at shortstop and Altuve at second, their infield would appear to be a finished product, albeit one that isn’t as good as a version featuring Bregman. Read the rest of this entry »
Pete Alonso is going back to the Mets. It always felt like the most likely outcome, and to be honest, it would’ve been super weird to see him in any other uniform. Alonso has never been the best player on the Mets, but he does the coolest and most valuable thing you can do on a baseball diamond — hit home runs — with great frequency. That, and an affable attitude that’s endeared him to the fans, has made him an institution in Queens.
Unfortunately, there was something of a disagreement over what all those contributions were worth. Alonso returns to his team of origin on a front-loaded two-year, $54 million contract that features an opt-out. If Alonso does what he’s done his whole career, he can test free agency again next winter, having pocketed $30 million. That’s a handsome one-year salary for any player, but far, far short of Alonso’s expectations. Read the rest of this entry »
Major league job boards don’t exist, at least not for players. You can’t walk past some mythical player’s union clubhouse, see a sign that says “Team seeking middle reliever, please tear off a number and call it to apply,” and find a job that way. The team calls you, or emails your agent, and they do that after working up their own list of targets independently. Or at least, that’s what they tell us. But after seeing the Minnesota Twins acquire the same type of player for the third year running, as they did in signing Harrison Bader to a one-year deal this week, I’m not so sure.
Bader’s deal is for one year and $6.25 million, with bonuses that could kick in another $2 million. That’s a reasonable deal for a quality backup, and that’s exactly what Bader looks like. He’s put up between 300 and 450 plate appearances in six of the past seven seasons – the only year he missed that mark was in the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign. At first, that was because he couldn’t stay on the field, but in recent years, he’s turned into a defensive specialist and righty platoon bat.
How much do the Twins like those two roles? Well, in 2023, they traded for Michael A. Taylor, a defensive specialist and righty platoon bat, and then gave him 110 starts in center field. Sure, they had Byron Buxton, but that year Buxton never took the field, all the better to protect him from injuries. Taylor was so good that he got a new deal in free agency to head to Pittsburgh – so the Twins went out and traded for Manuel Margot, a “defensive specialist” and righty platoon bat. Read the rest of this entry »
Matt Kartozian-Imagn Images and Brett Davis-Imagn Images
With a 115 wRC+, the 2024 Orioles were the best offensive team in franchise history, outperforming even the most dominant Baltimore lineups from the 1960s, 70s, and 80s. Their 115 wRC+ was also good for second in the AL last season, trailing only their pennant-winning division rivals in New York. A couple thousand miles away, the Diamondbacks also finished with a best-in-franchise-history 115 wRC+. That wRC+ was good for second in the National League, trailing only Arizona’s World Series-winning division rivals in Los Angeles. How’s that for symmetry?
On Tuesday, the Birds and the Snakes continued to parallel one another, at least as far as their lineups are concerned. In the afternoon, the Orioles announced they had signed righty-batting outfielder Ramón Laureano, reportedly to a one-year, $4 million deal. Not long after, the D-backs confirmed they had re-signed righty-batting outfielder Randal Grichuk, reportedly for one year and $5 million guaranteed. Both deals also come with options for 2026. Laureano’s is a $6.5 million team option, while Grichuk’s is a $5 million mutual option with a $3 million buyout. His salary for 2025 is technically only $2 million, with that buyout making up the rest of his $5 million guarantee. There was a time when both Laureano and Grichuk were promising, multi-talented, everyday players. These days, however, they’ve each become role players with two primary jobs: handle a part-time gig in the outfield and hit well against left-handed pitching. That should be exactly what the Orioles and Diamondbacks ask them to do in 2025. Read the rest of this entry »
I went to the Pirates’ RosterResource page this morning and thought the following thought: “Man, is Isiah Kiner-Falefa really going to lead off for this team? God, that’s depressing.” Not that I have anything against IKF; it’s just symptomatic of a Pirates team that seems built to do little more than participate in the coming season.
The Pirates being an afterthought is nothing new; on the contrary, it’s been the default state of affairs for most of the past 45 years. But recent developments have made this a particularly frustrating time for Pirates fans.
At the risk of oversimplifying things, there are two kinds of good players: Players you can get and players you have to have drop out of the sky for you. Like Willy Adames is a really good player, and worth the monster contract the Giants just gave him. But if he’d signed elsewhere, the Giants could’ve found another player like him.
It was a bit of a weird assignment: “Hey, one of our most popular projections drops this week, would you mind telling everyone where you think it’s wrong?” Sure thing, bossman!
Joking aside, I get it. Playoff odds are probabilistic; if you asked me how many teams would miss their projected win total, I’d say half are going to come in high and the other half are going to come in low. They follow a set methodology that you can’t tweak if the results look off. That means the standings page is blind to factors human observers can see. It doesn’t know who’s getting divorced, who made a conditioning breakthrough over the winter, and who just really freaking hated the old pitching coach who got fired.
Nevertheless, these numbers are valuable because the projection system doesn’t mistake anecdotes for data and overrate the intangible. It’s a reminder to trust your gut, but only to an extent. Read the rest of this entry »
Scott Taetsch-Imagn Images and Brad Penner-Imagn Images
Hello, and welcome to another installment of Transaction Analysis: Reliever Roundup Edition. Would you like to start with a joke? What’s that? You’re foaming at the mouth because the thought of starting with a joke is so exciting that you’ve lost all control of your bodily functions? I’m so glad we’re on the same page. Here we go:
Knock, knock.
Ok, now this is where you say: Who’s there? Great job.
The left-handed middle reliever with a fastball that averages just under 91 mph, who put up 0.5 WAR last season and on Tuesday signed a one-year, $3 million deal to return to his old team in his age-35 season.
Alright, now say it with me: Which one?
Thank you for your help. I think we nailed it. On Tuesday, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported that Danny Coulombe, who spent the 2020-2022 seasons with the Twins, had agreed to return to Minnesota. Bobby Nightengale of the Minnesota Star-Tribune reported that the deal is for one year and a $3 million. Shortly thereafter, ESPN’s Jeff Passan announced that Tim Hill, who joined the Yankees in June 2024, would be returning to the Bronx on a $2.5 million deal, plus a $3 million club option for 2026 with a $350,000 buyout clause. Wait, I probably shouldn’t have explained the joke.
Tim Hill
Starting with New York, the Yankees really needed Hill back. He’s the only left-handed pitcher in their bullpen. During the team’s 2024 World Series run, he ran a 1.08 ERA over 10 appearances and 8 1/3 innings. The team’s only other left-handed relievers were Tim Mayza, who threw 2 1/3 innings and is now a Pirate, and Nestor Cortes, who is famously a starter, certainly didn’t look comfortable in his two postseason relief appearances, and is now a Brewer.
Hill is also coming off the best stretch of his career. He started the 2024 season with the White Sox, running a 5.87 ERA over 27 appearances before being released in June. The Yankees signed him two days later, and he finished the season with a 2.05 ERA over 44 innings and 34 appearances. What was different in New York? For starters, a decent bit of luck. Hill allowed a .436 BABIP in Chicago and a .238 BABIP in New York. However, the Yankees also made some drastic changes to Hill’s pitch mix. After arriving in New York, he drastically reduced his four-seamer usage and ditched his slider almost entirely.
Hill doesn’t miss bats and he doesn’t miss the plate, which means tons of balls in play. He’s a true side-armer with an arm angle of -20 degrees, and in September and October, he leaned (even further) into that identity, throwing his sinker 80% of the time, his four-seamer 18% of the time, and his slider just 2% of the time. Although batters made louder contact than they had during his time in Chicago, Hill’s already huge groundball rate rose to 70% with the Yankees. He allowed 117 groundballs and just 18 fly balls; in seven of his 35 regular season appearances, every single ball in play that he surrendered was a grounder. You have to imagine the Yankees are hoping to run that strategy right back, encouraging Hill to lean on the sinker and let opponents beat the ball into the ground for as long as it works.
Danny Coulombe
Coulombe returns to the Twins after two seasons with the Orioles, and the need he fills is every bit as dire. The only other lefties the Twins have are Brent Headrick, who has three big league innings to his name, and Kody Funderburk, who ran a 6.49 ERA in 2024. RosterResource doesn’t have Headrick or Funderburk in their projected bullpen. As you might recall, the Minnesota bullpen’s 4.89 ERA in the second half was the third worst in baseball and a major reason that the team crashed out of playoff contention (though it’s worth noting that the bullpen’s 3.72 xFIP was actually seventh best). The need is more general, however, as Coulombe is the only player the Twins have signed to a major league deal this offseason. If that sounds somewhat familiar, you could be thinking of the trade deadline, during which time Minnesota was battling for its life and made just one move, trading for reliever Trevor Richards. To put it bluntly, this is an infuriating time to be a Twins fan.
It’s hard to know exactly what to expect from Coulombe. He has a long track record of excellence, with a 2.69 ERA over the last five seasons, 2.92 during his three seasons in Minnesota and 2.56 during his two in Baltimore. However, he’s only thrown 130 1/3 major league innings over that period, an average of just 26 per season. In 2024, Coulombe was running a 2.42 ERA and 2.86 FIP when his season was stopped in its tracks in June for surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow. He returned to make four scoreless appearances in September, but his fastball velocity dropped to just below 89 mph. The Orioles let him walk rather than pick up a $4 million option. It’s hard to imagine the Twins signing him without feeling secure in the knowledge that his velocity would bounce back up to the 91-92 range, but it’s certainly something to watch for as the season starts. Coloumbe also spent most of the 2022 season on the injured list due to a hip impingement and missed time with biceps tendonitis in 2023. Health will be a major factor in determining whether the one major league signing the Twins have made this offseason actually has an impact.
There’s also some question about just what kind of pitcher Coulombe will be with the Twins. Upon joining the Orioles in 2023, Coulombe traded his slider for a sweeper with an extra eight inches of horizontal break, ditched his changeup entirely, and introduced a cutter that replaced his four-seamer as his most-used pitch. In 2024, Coulombe threw either the cutter or the sweeper nearly 60% of the time. If there’s one thing the Twins love, it’s a four-seamer – they’ve finished in the top four in four-seamer percentage in each of the last three seasons – so it will be interesting to see whether they encourage Coulombe to stick with what worked for him in Baltimore, or get him to return to what, you know, worked for him in Minnesota.
That’s the tricky thing about Coulombe; his performance has been consistent while his availability has been anything but. Every pitcher presents some level of injury risk, and Coulombe’s stuff and profile make him not just a great fit for Minnesota, but a desperately needed addition. All the same, if the team is really only going to make one addition, might it have been wiser to choose a safer option?
George Lombard Jr. is a promising prospect with a first-round pedigree. Drafted 26th overall in 2023 out of Gulliver Preparatory School in Pinecrest, Florida, the right-handed-hitting shortstop is also the son of former big league outfielder (and current Detroit Tigers bench coach) George Lombard. Assigned a 45 FV by lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen, the athletically gifted youngster is no. 4 on our recently released New York Yankees Top Prospects list.
The 19-year-old’s first full professional season was a mixed bag statistically. Over 497 plate appearances between Low-A Tampa and High-A Hudson Valley, Lombard logged a .231/.338/.334 slash line, a 99 wRC+, and 32 extra-base hits, five of which left the yard. Taking advantage of his plus wheels, he swiped 39 bases in 47 attempts.
Lombard discussed his game late in the 2024 season.
———
David Laurila: I’ve seen you listed at 6-foot-2, 190 pounds. How accurate is that, and where do you see yourself going forward?
George Lombard Jr: “I’m 6-foot-3 and around 205 pounds. I’ll put on some more weight in the next few years, and I think our goal will end up being around 215, maybe 220. We believe that I can still be fast as I put on weight, so we’re going to continue to do that. A lot of it will just come with physically maturing over time, and putting in the work in the weight room.” Read the rest of this entry »
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