With the Reds’ roster overflowing with talented young infielders, it appeared that manager David Bell would have the pleasant challenge each day of figuring out how to fit as many of them into the lineup as possible. That task, though, just got a bit easier — at least for the first half of the season. On Friday, the team announced that Major League Baseball has suspended Noelvi Marte for the first 80 games of the regular season following a positive test for a performance-enhancing drug.

The 22-year-old Marte made his major league debut on August 19, just over a year after he was acquired from the Mariners in the Luis Castillo blockbuster. After playing exclusively at shortstop from 2019–22, last year he split his time between short and third base at Double-A Chattanooga, played third exclusively at Triple-A Louisville, and then made 29 of his 34 appearances for the Reds at the hot corner, including 26 starts. In all he hit .279/.358/.454 (110 wRC+) with 11 homers and 18 steals in 92 minor league games and then a sizzling .316/.366/.456 (120 wRC+) with three homers and six steals in 35 games for the Reds.

Because he finished with just 114 at-bats and 44 days on the active roster, Marte is still considered a rookie. He placed 41st on this year’s Top 100 Prospects list (up from 94th in 2023), good for no. 1 in the Reds’ system. He’s a well-rounded player who projects as an everyday third baseman, with a shot to be more impactful if he can tap into his 60-grade raw power with greater frequency.

Alas, it will be a few months before he gets a chance to do so. Marte tested positive for boldenone, an anabolic steroid that’s illegal under the game’s Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment program. While he can still participate in spring training, his 80-game suspension takes effect at the start of the regular season. During his suspension, he can work out at the Reds’ complex in Goodyear, Arizona for extended spring training, and will be eligible to return to the majors on June 21, before which he can go on a minor league rehab assignment. If the Reds reach the postseason, something they’ve done just once (2020) over the past 10 seasons, Marte would not be eligible to participate.

PED suspensions have become increasingly uncommon at the major league level in recent seasons, which isn’t to say that the drugs’ usage has been entirely eradicated. Last year, just one major leaguer tested positive and was suspended, Brewers reliever J.C. Mejía, and his suspension wasn’t handed down until September 20. He drew a 162-game suspension as a second offender, as he was also suspended in 2022. More notably, Padres shortstop-turned-outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr., who was suspended on August 12, 2022, finished serving out his suspension during the ’23 season. Here’s a look at the number of major league suspensions for PEDs for each season since 2012:

In November 2022, the New York Times’ James Wagner reported that players from the Dominican Republic account for half of the positive tests in the majors and minors every year, but the frequency is even greater at the major league level. Including Marte, 15 of the last 18 suspensions handed down to major leaguers since the start of 2020 have gone to Dominican players; the U.S-born Paul Campbell and Héctor Santiago (both 2021) and Venezuela-born José Rondón (2022) were the exceptions.

The high frequency likely owes to the fact that old-fashioned anabolic steroids such as boldenone and stanozolol are easily available without prescriptions in the DR, and are easily detected through MLB’s existing testing program. Seven of the aforementioned 18 suspensions were for boldenone, while five were for stanozolol; all but Rondón (boldenone) are Dominican. Designer steroids, which are harder to detect, are more expensive. One concern within the game right now regarding the dearth of recent suspensions is that the testing program hasn’t caught up to whatever’s in vogue.

As for the Reds, this likely isn’t the scenario that they envisioned when they amassed and then augmented this stable of talented young infielders, but because of their depth, they’re built to withstand the loss of any of them. Marte was one of four Reds infielders who debuted in the majors last year, along with Elly De La Cruz (the only one younger than Marte, and our no. 6 prospect entering the 2023 season), Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and Matt McLain. The glut also includes 2019 NL Rookie of the Year Jonathan India, late-’22 debutant Spencer Steer (no. 47 on the 2023 Top 100), and free agent addition Jeimer Candelario, who signed a three-year, $45 million deal during the Winter Meetings. All of them are capable of playing multiple positions, which set up quite a puzzle as spring began, as Michael Baumann explored last month. Candelario and De La Cruz are both switch-hitters, the rest of them righties.

While India, Steer, and Encarnacion-Strand all primarily played third base in the minors, on Saturday, Bell told reporters that Candelario would be the regular third baseman in Marte’s absence. Even so, the manager is keen to take advantage of the flexibility the group affords him, saying, “We’re gonna create as many options over there as we can for that… There’s just so many different ways that our lineup can come together that we’ll just create the options and kind of let that play out a little bit.”

Here’s how Baumann pieced together the situation as camp opened last month, based upon what Bell and president of baseball operations Nick Krall had said, including the expectation that McLain and De La Cruz would be the primary middle infield combo:

And here’s my best guess as to how it looks now in the wake of Bell’s statements:

Encarnacion-Strand, a 24-year-old righty, hit .270/.328/.477 (112 wRC+) with 13 homers in 241 plate appearances for the Reds last year after absolutely tearing up the International League (.331/.405/.637, 20 HR, 152 wRC+ in 316 PA). Thirty-two of his 36 non-DH starts at the major league level came at first base, and that figures to be his primary position to start the season. India, who hit .244/.338/.407(99 wRC+) with 17 homers and 14 steals last year, hasn’t played anywhere besides second in the majors, but he is now going to add first, third (his regular position at the University of Florida), and left field to his repertoire while also getting time at DH. Steer, who hit .271/.356/.464 (118 wRC+) with a team-high 23 homers and 15 steals in 2023, is probably the best hitter of the bunch but something of a defensive liability no matter where you put him; that said, his -14 RAA last year was well below his -5 DRS and -4 UZR, when he split time between five positions: first base (501 innings), second base (124), third base (350.1), left field (311), and right field (11). He DHed in only six games last year, and doing so more often this year probably depends upon how well India takes to the outfield.

On the subject of platooning, as Baumann pointed out, both Encarnacion-Strand and India had reverse platoon splits in the majors last year, with India’s persisting as far as his career goes (99 wRC+ against lefties, 110 against righties) but Encarnacion-Strand’s leveling out once you include the minors. The lack of lefty hitters in this group puts a couple of other players in the picture, as noted above. Likely to get substantial playing time against righties in both outfield corners and DH is the lefty-swinging Fraley, who hit .256/.339/.443 with 15 homers and 21 steals in just 380 PA last year. With former prospect Jose Barrero placed on waivers and claimed by the Rangers on Saturday, Kemp, who also bats left-handed, is the leading candidate to claim the roster spot vacated by Marte. A non-roster invitee, he hit just .209/.303/.304 (77 wRC+) with five homers and 15 steals for the lowly A’s last year; he can play second and left field, and while his bat is hardly his best asset, he owns a career 100 wRC+ against southpaws, compared to 93 against righties, which could be useful to Bell. Versatile righty Josh Harrison, who hit a limp .204/.263/.291 (51 wRC+) in 114 PA for the Phillies last year before being released and spending time with the Rangers’ Triple-A Round Rock affiliate, is another NRI competing for the open infield spot, but his handedness probably puts him at a disadvantage.

All told, the loss of Marte is a blow to the career of a bright prospect, particularly in a season where he was hoping to solidify his spot at the major league level. While it won’t help the Reds either, they were built to withstand such contingencies, and in Marte’s absence, they’ll get a chance to figure out the strengths and weaknesses of their other young players.

When free agent Matt Chapman signed with the Giants this past weekend, most of my analysis focused upon the ups and downs of his 2023 season and the nature of his contract, which looks comparatively team friendly. One thing I underplayed in the analysis was the extent to which San Francisco’s winter stands out relative to the competition. Even before the addition of Chapman, the Giants had spent more money on free agents than any other team besides the Dodgers, and likewise project to receive more WAR from those additions than any team besides their longtime rivals.

Based on the data in our Free Agent Tracker, the Giants have now committed $261.25 million in guaranteed salaries: $113 million to center fielder Jung Hoo Lee, $44 million to righty Jordan Hicks, $42 million to DH/outfielder Jorge Soler, and $8.25 million to catcher Tom Murphy; this accounting does not include the major league salaries that shortstop Nick Ahmed or lefty reliever Amir Garrett will get if they make the big league roster; last month, they each signed minor league deals as non-roster invitees. San Francisco’s additions may not be as eye-catching as signing either Carlos Correa or Aaron Judge would have been last offseason, and the team still projects for a middle-of-the-pack 82 wins after going 79-83 last year, but the Giants may not be done spending some of the money that was burning a hole in their pockets. They remain interested in Blake Snell, especially in the wake of injuries within their rotation.

Of course, the Dodgers blow the field away when it comes to spending, even if we stick to the adjusted salaries once deferred money is factored in, with a total of $853.2 million: $437.83 million to Shohei Ohtani (down from a sticker price of $700 million), $325 million to Yoshinobu Yamamoto, $20.434 million to outfielder Teoscar Hernández (down from $25 million), $10 million to Clayton Kershaw (with incentives that can increase the value significantly for both 2024 and ’25), $9 million apiece to Ryan Brasier and Jason Heyward, $8 million to Joe Kelly, $7 million to James Paxton, and $4 million to Enrique Hernández.

Here’s a look at the 30 teams’ free agent spending. Note that, as above, these figures factor in the applicable deferrals but not incentives, escalator clauses, or split-contract salaries from minor league deals:

As you can see, five teams committed less than $10 million each this winter, and of the bottom seven teams, four (the Orioles, Rays, Twins, and Marlins) made the playoffs last year. Free agency isn’t the only route to improve a team, but particularly with regards to the Orioles, one can empathize with fans who are disappointed that last year’s success hasn’t translated into a shopping spree to improve their odds of getting back to the postseason.

The 30 teams have committed a total of $2.74 billion to free agents so far, and even though that figure will increase once Snell and Jordan Montgomery sign, overall spending will still be lower this offseason than in recent ones. Based on the data at RosterResource, teams spent $4 billion last offseason ($2.22 billion on the top 12 free agents alone) and $3.22 billion in the lockout-interrupted offseason of 2021–22. For this winter, spending works out to an average of $91.38 million per team, but that figure is skewed by the top teams to such an extent that the median is just $49.25 million; only nine teams exceeded the mean.

Beyond the dollars, I thought it would be worth revisiting some free agent accounting we’ve done in the past, regarding WAR added and lost in free agency. This isn’t quite as straightforward as it sounds, as we’ll soon see.

This is the most basic accounting, lumping together players signed to major league deals and those who had to settle for minor league ones; the latter inflates the counts of some of these teams well into double digits. It’s worth noting that where players spent time with multiple teams in 2023, I’ve only counted their WAR with their last team on the outgoing side, but their full-season WAR on the incoming side. Consider the case of Jeimer Candelario, who produced 3.1 WAR for the Nationals and then 0.2 WAR for the Cubs. To these eyes, crediting the Reds as adding a 3.3-WAR player properly conveys the impact of a substantial addition. The question is whether to count the Cubs as losing 3.3 WAR (via a player they acquired without intending to retain) or 0.2 WAR (reflecting the transient nature of a late-season addition). I went with the latter option.

The total number of outgoing free agents shown above (277) doesn’t include 11 additional players from the KBO and NPB, eight of whom have signed (all but Trevor Bauer, Adam Plutko, and Yasiel Puig), meaning that from among that total, 73 — about 25% — are unsigned. Most of the unsigned are fairly low impact players, in that just 13 produced at least 1.0 WAR last year, with Montgomery (4.3), Snell (4.1), Brandon Belt (2.3), Mike Clevinger (2.2) and J.D. Martinez (2.2) the only ones above 2.0. Meanwhile, 35 of them produced zero or negative WAR, though to be fair, that was often in limited opportunity.

While the eight foreign players who have signed are counted in the total number of signed free agents above, they didn’t produce any WAR within MLB. Thus, the fact that three teams outrank the Dodgers in terms of net free agent WAR comes with the caveat that the Los Angeles total doesn’t include Yamamoto.

I’ll come back to that issue, but first let’s note the teams at the extremes. Ahead of the Dodgers are three teams who had a bunch of players hit the open market, but who were at best minimally productive in 2023, and who all went out and made at least a few solid moves. Of the dozen Reds to test free agency, including the still-unsigned Joey Votto, only Harrison Bader produced even 1.0 WAR in 2023, and he nonetheless was 0.2 wins below replacement after being acquired from the Yankees. On the other side, in addition to Candelario, the team shored up its pitching by adding starters Nick Martinez and Frankie Montas, relievers Brent Suter and Emilio Pagán, and more — not big moves, but enough to put them at the top. The Cardinals shed five players, most notably Dakota Hudson, and overhauled their rotation by adding Sonny Gray, whose 5.3 WAR as a Twin tied Kevin Gausman for the AL lead, as well as Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn; they also added Keynan Middleton to the bullpen and staffed their bench with Brandon Crawford and Matt Carpenter. Of the eight Royals who became free agents, only Zack Greinke produced 1.0 WAR, but they beefed up their pitching, with starters Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha; their lineup, with Hunter Renfroe; and their bench, with Adam Frazier and Garrett Hampson to their bench. These moves won’t win them the division, but they’re at least proof of life.

The Dodgers’ figures on both sides of the ledger are inflated by their keeping Brasier, Enrique Hernández, Heyward, Kelly, and Kershaw, but they did shed the still-unsigned J.D. Martinez and Julio Urías, replacing them with the market’s two most expensive players. The Diamondbacks re-signed Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and didn’t lose anybody who produced at least 1.0 WAR for the team, while the only departing Giant to meet that threshold was Sean Manaea.

At the other end of the spectrum, it’s striking that the bottom five teams include three AL postseason participants plus one NL team that barely missed it. Whether they won it all or fell short, their offseasons have resulted in some downsizing of payrolls and perhaps expectations.

In the wake of last year’s $255 million flop, the uncertainty regarding their local broadcast deal, and the death of chairman Peter Seidler, the Padres gutted their pitching staff, with Snell, Lugo, Martinez, Wacha, and closer Josh Hader among those departing, along with catcher Gary Sánchez, whom they plucked off the scrapheap and who had his best season since 2019. Most of the money they’ve spent this offseason was on their bullpen, with Wandy Peralta, Japanese lefty Yuki Matsui and Korean righty Woo-Suk Go joining the fold. The Twins shed Gray, Kenta Maeda, and Tyler Mahle from their rotation, and both Donovan Solano and Michael A. Taylor remain unsigned but unlikely to return; meanwhile their most impactful addition is first baseman Carlos Santana. The Blue Jays let Chapman depart, along with Belt, Hicks and Whit Merrifield; they cobbled together a lower-cost third base solution, which includes the incoming Justin Turner and Isiah Kiner-Falefa, retained center fielderKevin Kiermaier, and took a flier on Cuban righty Yariel Rodriguez, who spent three seasons in NPB. The Rangers may still re-sign Montgomery, but for now he counts only on the outbound side, and they also shed relievers Aroldis Chapman, Chris Stratton, and Will Smith, plus catcher/DH Mitch Garver. Their rotation is full of question marks as they bank on Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, and Mahle having strong returns from surgery. Veteran righty David Robertson should bolster the bullpen, and Garver’s departure is mitigated by the eventual arrival of top prospect Wyatt Langford.

Since the impact of the foreign free agents isn’t reflected in the table above, I took one more look at the landscape using projected WAR on the incoming side. Instead of taking it straight from our Free Agent Tracker — that uses Steamer, which is available in time for the opening bell of the offseason, but not ZiPS, which takes longer to prepare — I took the more labor-intensive route by swapping in our Depth Charts projections, which takes an average the two systems:

Despite accounting for Yamamoto, the Dodgers actually fall in the rankings due to known injuries (Ohtani won’t pitch in 2024, while Kershaw could be out until August) and regression (Brasier and Heyward, particularly), while the Giants surpass them with the addition of Lee. Also notable on the upper end are the Mets, mainly due to anticipated rebounds from Manaea, Bader, and Luis Severino. On the other side, the Orioles stand out more than in the previous table, mainly because the only free agent they signed to a major league deal, Craig Kimbrel, is projected to regress. Given that both Kyle Bradish and John Means have been sidelined with elbow injuries to start the season, it seems possible the O’s could add a low-cost starter who might boost their standing here a bit.

Thanks to our tools at FanGraphs, free agency is easy to track, even if I’ve made it more labor-intensive for this exercise. It’s hardly the only route by which teams improve, however. For example, the Orioles traded for Corbin Burnes, who may outproduce any of the starters who were signed. But in the big picture, the patterns I’ve illustrated offer us plenty of hints about what to expect from the upcoming season.

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley talk to FanGraphs writer Ben Clemens about the site’s ongoing efforts to model team depth and factor it into projections, then preview the 2024 Toronto Blue Jays (30:46) with The Athletic’s Kaitlyn McGrath, and the 2024 Cincinnati Reds (1:16:31) with The Athletic’s C. Trent Rosecrans.

Audio intro: Gabriel-Ernest, “Effectively Wild Theme”
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Audio outro: MulderBatFlip, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to Other Ben’s blog about depth
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Link to 2023 Senzel article
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Link to story about Reds bunting
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Link to BP on Friedl
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Spring training is in full swing, and while there’s still a trickle of higher-profile free agents such as Cody Bellinger and Tim Anderson finding homes — not to mention a handful of unsigned ones, from NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell and postseason stud Jordan Montgomery on down — most teams are taking shape, albeit with plenty to sort out while in camp. Still, all but the powerhouses have some lineup holes remaining, and while they may not be likely to open their checkbooks to land the likes of Matt Chapman, it’s worth keeping their vulnerabilities in mind.

To that end, I wanted to revisit an exercise I performed last year, one that bears more than a passing resemblance to the annual Replacement Level Killers series I roll out prior to the trade deadline. This one is a little different, as it comes prior to the season and relies entirely on our projections, which combine ZiPS and Steamer as well as playing time estimates from RosterResource. Those projections also drive our Playoff Odds.

There are a couple of wrinkles to note here. Where last year and for the in-season series I have generally used a 10% chance of reaching the playoffs as a cutoff for what we might loosely define as a contender, this year’s odds are distributed such that only four teams (the A’s, Nationals, Rockies, and White Sox) fall below that threshold. Thus I’ve raised the cutoff to 25%, leaving the Angels, Pirates, and Royals below the bar but including the Red Sox (25.6% at this writing) and Reds (25.7%), both of which forecast for 80 wins. Gotta love this expanded playoff system, right? Ugh. Read the rest of this entry »

Rhett Lowder has yet to pitch in a professional game, but already he ranks not only as the top pitching prospect in the Reds system, but also as the no. 44 player on our Top 100 list. Remarkably, that’s not all that surprising. Selected seventh overall by the Reds out of Wake Forest University, the 21-year-old right-hander will make his pro debut on the heels of a spectacular junior campaign that saw him go 15-0 with a 1.87 ERA and a school record 142 strikeouts. The Atlantic Coast Conference’s Player of the Year for the second straight season — he’d gone 11-3 with a 3.08 ERA in 2022 — Lowder seems a lock to pitch in the middle of a big league rotation. Moreover, his arrival in Cincinnati should come in the not-too-distant future.

In terms of style, the native North Carolinian might best be described as a technician with multiple above-average offerings. Lowder’s repertoire comprises two- and four-seam fastballs, a slider, and a changeup, and he augments that arsenal with plus command and a feel for his craft that belies his level of experience. Mixing and matching is one of his strong suits, giving him an opportunity to navigate lineups deep into games.

———

David Laurila: Let’s start with one of my favorite ice breakers: Do you view pitching as more of an art, or more of a science?

Rhett Lowder: “A little bit of both. In the offseason you can probably get into more of the science side of it, breaking yourself down. But during the season it’s more of an art; there are a bunch of different ways to to get the job done. Plus, everybody is unique. There is no cookie-cutter way to get outs.”

Laurila: Some of what I’ve read about you suggests craftsman, but are you actually more of a power guy?

Lowder: “I think it just really depends on the game. One of my stronger suits is that I can adjust based on the opponent, and on some days you have more overpowering stuff than you do on others. I can kind of be like a chameleon and change based on the environment and the game I’m in. I’m not necessarily the same exact guy every single time I go out there.

“There are some things I fall back on more times than not when I get into trouble, but going into most games, it really just depends on the [opponent]. I try to overlay my strengths over the other team’s weaknesses and kind of see where that leads me. I try to be able to adapt as quickly as possible.”

Laurila: Do you consider yourself a pitching nerd? Read the rest of this entry »

The Reds have had many problems over their long and convoluted history, but few so wonderful as this: They have more good infielders than they can use. And not just good, but young, and mostly on pre-arbitration deals. The oldest and most expensive, Jeimer Candelario, they’ve just signed to a three-year, $45 million contract. He’s only 30, and coming off a season in which he posted a 117 wRC+.

The other six guys include a recent rookie of the year, Jonathan India, and five talented youngsters age 26 or younger: Spencer Steer, Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and Noelvi Marte. Steer had a cameo at the end of 2022, but the other four got their first taste of major league action last year and performed somewhere between competently and superbly. Read the rest of this entry »

Jacob Hurtubise quietly had one of the best seasons in the minors in 2023. Over 455 plate appearances between Double-A Chattanooga and Triple-A Louisville, the left-handed-hitting outfielder slashed .330/.479/.483 with 11 doubles, 10 triples, seven home runs, and a 163 wRC+. Moreover, he had a 13.8% strikeout rate and a 16.9% walk rate to go with 45 stolen bases. Signed by the Cincinnati Reds as an undrafted free agent in 2020 after four collegiate seasons at Army, the West Point graduate is arguably one of the more intriguing position player prospects in the system.

A lack of power is Hurtibise’s biggest shortcoming, but that’s not what his game is built on. As the 26-year-old Zionsville, Indiana native readily acknowledges, what he brings to the table is a combination of plus bat-to-ball skills, a keen eye, and excellent wheels. His profile is that of a potential top-of-the-order OBP machine, one who just so happens to be a high-character overachiever knocking on the door of the big leagues.

Hurtubise, who was added to Cincinnati’s 40-man roster last November, talked hitting late in the Arizona Fall League season.

———

David Laurila: Your OBP has been well over .400 since you got to pro ball, and this past season it was a remarkable .479. To what do you attribute those numbers?

Jacob Hurtubise: “I think it just comes down to having a solid approach. I’ve been gifted with a good eye, and that’s been improved through repetitions and continuing to be patient at the plate. Knowing who I am as a hitter is a big part of that. I know my job. I don’t have a ton of power, so I have to do whatever I can to get on base, and from there create havoc on the basepaths.” Read the rest of this entry »

One million dollars. It’s the prize money on Survivor. It’s Dr. Evil’s ransom. Apparently it’s a song by 100 gecs, a band my little brother claims I should know. It’s also the price of Zach Plesac’s services in 2024. Read the rest of this entry »

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2024 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

Though he carried himself with a decidedly modern swagger, Brandon Phillips styled himself as a throwback, so much so that he wound up at the center of a battle over old school/new school thinking within baseball’s culture war, pitted against teammate Joey Votto. If the flashy, free-swinging Phillips wasn’t everybody’s idea of the ideal second baseman of the post-Moneyball era, his combination of power and above-average baserunning and defense made him a valuable and entertaining player. In a 17-year major league career that took a while to get off the ground, Phillips won four Gold Gloves, made three All-Star teams and — along with Votto and Hall of Famer Scott Rolen — helped the Reds to three playoff appearances in a four-season span.

Brandon Emil Phillips was born on June 28, 1981 in Raleigh, North Carolina, into a very competitive family. His parents, James and Lue Phillips, were both athletes at Shaw University, a Raleigh-based historically Black university. James played football and baseball before going on to work as a sales representative for the R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Company, while his mother played basketball. Jamil Phillips (b. 1975), the oldest of James and Lue’s four children, played collegiate baseball at Johnson County (Kansas) Community College and Southern University before being drafted by the Rangers as an outfielder in the 34th round in 1993. P.J. Phillips (b. 1986) was a second-round pick by the Angels out of Redan High School in 2005 and spent five seasons in the Angels’ organization, one in the Reds’ organization, and four in independent leagues before becoming an indy-league manager. Porsha Phillips (b. 1988) played basketball at Louisiana State and the University of Georgia before spending the 2011 season with the WNBA’s San Antonio Stars. Read the rest of this entry »

For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognosgtications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Cincinnati Reds.

Batters

When I look at Cincinnati’s offense, I’m incredibly confused. By “confused” I don’t mean that the offense is lousy, just that its construction is utterly bizarre in a lot of areas. For example, even if you write Matt McLain and Elly De La Cruz in permanent marker at second base and shortstop, respectively, you still have a team that’s overflowing with plausible third base candidates: Jonathan India, Noelvi Marte, Spencer Steer, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand to start. Given this hot corner glut, the Reds signed… one of the best third basemen available, in the form of Jeimer Candelario, but not, mind you, to be the starting third baseman. And while he’ll see time there, it’s extremely likely he’s going to get a ton of time at first base and designated hitter. One of the main reasons to like Candelario is that he hits like he does while playing a very competent third base. The more time he sees at 1B/DH, the more it’s the equivalent of buying a sports car to use as a step ladder to change the light bulb in your garage.

What’s more, many of the players who’ll be shifting down the defensive spectrum doesn’t really have much in the way of synergy. Candelario, Steer, and Encarnacion-Strand are all essentially right-handed hitters in profile (Candelario has the splits of a right-handed batter), so it’s not like one of those sneaky Gabe Kapler platoons.

Given how much ownership has cried poor, I don’t want to discourage the Reds from spending, but if they’re going to grow payroll, why not spend to address actual team weaknesses? Spending more money and getting bang for your buck are not mutually exclusive propositions. When I expressed confusion on Twitter about the Reds earlier this offseason, I was assured by fans of the team that the roster would make more sense after all the trades they were certainly going to make. Well, those moves haven’t come.

But who knows? The Reds do have a lot of talent on the roster, even if their players are deployed in a rather odd way. McLain is terrific, and I think De La Cruz’s late-season drop-off removed the over-exuberance that he was going to be Fernando Tatis Jr.; he’s now about properly rated for what he is. Tyler Stephenson ought to have a better season than he did in 2023, and ZiPS projects the outfield to be adequate if healthy, though the computer can hardly be described as enthusiastic. ZiPS is kind of interested in Blake Dunn as someone who could eventually push Stuart Fairchild off the roster. As we’ve seen with them before, the Reds likely missed the window to get a good return for India, but he’s still probably a roughly league-average player and isn’t going to get any more valuable as a role player.

I’ll be generous and give the team the benefit of the doubt that there’s a plan to trade off some of the surplus talent here before it’s frittered away by time and attrition. But they’re running out of time to do it before the start of spring training.

Pitchers

ZiPS likes a lot of Cincinnati’s hitters, but it’s less enthusiastic about the pitching. That’s not so much a rotation problem, though several of the starters have worse projections than last year. It’s really odd that the Reds made a playoff run and it turned out that it have very little to do with breakouts from Hunter Greene, Graham Ashcraft, or Nick Lodolo, all three of whom were some combination of mediocre and injured in 2023. ZiPS is a believer in Andrew Abbott in the sense that he’s a deserving part of the rotation, but its expectations are tempered a bit. Greene, Ashcraft, and Lodolo all have worse outlooks than they did at this time last year, though that can hardly be a surprise.

[One of the Greenes came out as Green, and this has been fixed -DS]

Unlike some of the other Cincy signings, I really like the Frankie Montas pickup. There’s a good chance that he doesn’t contribute anything at all in Cincinnati, but the upside, given his history, is really quite interesting. I wish the team signed players like this more often, ones who represent a real jackpot for the team if they hit, say, their 70th percentile projections and stay healthy. The computer likes Nick Martinez as a useful swingman.

ZiPS absolutely hates the bullpen, though in the end, it has the group projected for the same 2.3 WAR that Steamer does. ZiPS likes Alexis Díaz, Fernando Cruz, and Martinez when he’s used in relief, but is lukewarm everywhere else.

I think the Emilio Pagán signing was the worst bullpen addition any team has made in free agency so far this winter, but I was surprised that ZiPS likes Pagán even less. I see this as a good example of a team thinking that the season before is the same thing as a projection, and ignoring the red flags. Pagán was basically successful because he suddenly went from being a terrible home run pitcher to a great one. Home runs allowed is a terrible stat, so terrible in fact that it makes xFIP useful, when it really should not be. Pagán has a long history of allowing a lot of homers in pitcher-friendly environments and actually had the worst average exit velocity allowed in his career in 2023. He remained a fly ball pitcher, and now he goes to one of the worst environments in baseball for a pitcher who allows a lot of flies. This is like the anti-Dodgers signing. That’s not a guarantee that Pagán will be lousy — relievers are quite volatile — but I really don’t like the odds.

So what does this all add up to? If the projections are to believed, about a .500 team, just where the Reds finished last year. Given the team’s young talent, I wish this franchise was taking a more practical approach to actually improving the roster.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time.