The Astros have yet again acquired pitcher Justin Verlander and cash on deadline day, this time from the Mets for outfield prospects Drew Gilbert and Ryan Clifford. Verlander, signed to a two-year, $86.667 million contract before the season, put up a 3.15 ERA and a 3.81 FIP in 16 starts for the Mets. The exact amount of cash being sent along with Verlander is not yet known.

Verlander pitching for a team that wasn’t the Astros just felt kind of odd. While he certainly didn’t spend the bulk of his career in Houston, it’s where he had his personal pitching renaissance, where he clinched his future Hall of Fame membership, and where he got his championship rings. Verlander in blue-and-orange felt like that episode of Star Trek: The Next Generation in which Jean-Luc Picard is kind of a sad-sack 60-year-old ensign because he didn’t get in a bar fight as a youngster. Or maybe it’s like when you’re trying to buy a Coke at some rural gas station, but they’re out, and you end up with some bizarre generic cola that may have been sitting there since the Reagan years. Verlander’s opinion may vary, but from at least this fan, it feels like something that went wrong has been set right by Scott Bakula.

The Astros aren’t just trying to satisfy nostalgia; they needed a starting pitcher, so why not one they have a longstanding relationship with? A rash of injuries has left the rotation thinner than they would like heading into the homestretch, and they have a real dogfight this year with the Rangers, who’ve already added Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery; there’s no lapping the division by 15 games. Verlander has shown some clear signs of aging this year, as hitters are less prone to whiffing and are hitting the ball harder, and his control isn’t quite as precise as in the past. But these are normal things for a 40-year-old pitcher, and nearly every pitcher who is still in the league at 40 is going to fall out of it during the ensuing few seasons. Houston isn’t asking Verlander to carry the team, but to be a dependable, healthy arm who keeps the team in games. That he’ll do.

The money has not yet been disclosed — check my colleague Jay Jaffe’s upcoming piece for this and more — but my initial guess is “a bunch.” Verlander’s contract is a hefty one, and both Gilbert and Clifford are legitimate prospects; I can’t imagine the Astros would have parted with them if they were also paying full or near-full freight on Verlander. Our prospect team has already shifted in Gilbert as the new No. 1 prospect on the Mets, and while his stats at Double-A Corpus Christi are far from eye-popping, you have to remember that this is his first full professional season. ZiPS sees him peaking as a near two-win outfielder in the .260/.330/.400 range, though the error bars are quite wide when you’re talking someone with so little professional experience. ZiPS is highly interested in Clifford’s power upside (as is the scouting community), but there are a lot of questions about his plate discipline and defensive value to be answered.

MLB will have to approve any deal where more than $2 million changes hands, as will be the case with Verlander and Houston. That has not happened yet, so the deal will not be official for a little while .

— Andy Martino (@martinonyc) August 1, 2023

Stay tuned for more on the trade!

Some players are irreplaceable because they’re especially good. Some players are irreplaceable because they’re weird. In the hours before the deadline, the Padres have acquired two of the latter: left-handed pitcher Rich Hill and first baseman Ji Man Choi, both late of the Pittsburgh Pirates. First baseman Alfonso Rivas is headed east, along with prospects Jackson Wolf, a left-handed pitcher, and Estuar Suero, an outfielder.

The Padres are in an awkward position; they’re coming off a trip to the NLCS, including a corner-turning defeat of their Southern California rivals, the Dodgers. Last deadline, they traded for Juan Soto and Josh Hader before signing Xander Bogaerts this past offseason. With team payroll in excess of $250 million, the time to win is now, now, now.

Unfortunately, the team’s performance has failed to live up to expectations. As the deadline looms, the Padres are three games under .500 and five games out of a Wild Card spot. That number is imposing enough on its own with just two months to play, but no fewer than three teams stand between San Diego and even a brief appearance in the postseason. Their playoff odds, as of Tuesday afternoon, stood at 34.3%. And with Blake Snell and Hader bound for free agency at season’s end, San Diego had just as good a case for selling as for buying at the deadline. Read the rest of this entry »

About 12 hours after Bo Bichette left Monday night’s game with a right knee injury, the Blue Jays found his possible replacement, acquiring shortstop Paul DeJong and cash considerations from the Cardinals on Tuesday afternoon for minor league reliever Matt Svanson.

DeJong being relevant again might make you think that you’ve warped back to pre-2020 days, but hang on before you load up on masks and toilet paper; he’s actually had a nice little 2023 season. I don’t think anyone would argue with me if I said the Cardinals were having a season with a stunning lack of pleasant surprises, but DeJong’s year has been one of those rarities. While a triple-slash of .233/.297/.412 won’t get you to many All-Star Games, it’s a much prettier line than his .196/.280/.351 collapse from 2020 to ’22, reaching a nadir with a ’22 season in which DeJong needed a telescope just to see the Mendoza line. He still plays solid defense at shortstop, and his bat has rebounded enough that there’s once again a significant role for him on a major league roster. The only reason he was even in St. Louis this year was the six-year contract he signed before the 2018 season.

The #BlueJays are sending minor-league reliever Matt Svanson, 24, in return for Paul DeJong and cash considerations. DeJong, who's in the final year of a six-year, $26 million contract, earns $9M this year with a $12.5M option or $2M buyout in 2024.

— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) August 1, 2023

While this piece has the “2023 trade deadline tag,” that’s actually kind of a lie; this is a regular ol’ injury replacement trade that just happened to coincide with the deadline. The full extent of Bichette’s injury probably won’t be known before the trade market closes up shop for the fall, so the Jays had to act quickly unless they wanted to try to replace him in-house. And while they had options in the organization, all of them had at least one seriously concerning issue. Santiago Espinal is more an emergency shortstop than a starter, and Cavan Biggio only has two professional innings at short. And neither is providing enough offense to make you want to take that defensive risk. In the minors, Addison Barger has suffered through elbow problems this season and isn’t a natural shortstop either, and Orelvis Martinez just debuted at Triple-A. Ernie Clement turning into a weird plate discipline deity is interesting, but more for a bad team in search of an upside play, not a team in a tight, crowded pennant race that needs some certainty.

DeJong’s options are now a little more complicated. At $12.5 million and $15 million, I imagine the Cardinals would have declined them as they did with Kolten Wong after a solid 2020 season. He has a $2 million buyout for 2024, and there may be a scenario in which the Jays pick it up if Bichette’s injury turns out to be fairly serious one. Is $10.5 million (since $2 million is baked into the cake either way) minus whatever the Cardinals are sending with him not worth it for them to keep DeJong as the starting shortstop for an undetermined part of next season before making him a utility infielder?

There was no reason to expect the Cardinals to get a haul of prospects for DeJong. Svanson is having a bit of a breakout season in the minors as a reliever, but you can’t ignore the fact that it’s as a 24-year-old in High-A ball. My colleague Eric Longenhagen has his two-seamer at 92–94 mph and his slider at 84, and that he would be an honorable mention in the Jays prospect list but would not make the main rankings. ZiPS turns Svanson’s 1.23 ERA/2.55 FIP into a 4.30 ERA translation with the Cardinals in 2023 because, well, 24-year-old in High-A ball. But if he advances quickly — and he will need to in order to have any kind of career in the majors — he could show up at the back of the big league bullpen.

Toronto would much prefer that Bichette’s knee is a minor issue that resolves quickly, but they’ve rightly formulated a solid Plan B here. There’s literally no time like the present.

*****BREAKING NEWS UPDATE EMERGENCY SIREN JAZZ HANDS*****

There’s no serious damage to Bichette’s knee, though it’s not determined whether or not he will need to head onto the IL. At the very least, we might see Bichette play more DH as they work him back into the lineup, whenever it is, and DeJong still remains a quality Plan B in the case of a setback. Bichette’s injury not being a serious one does reduce the chance that the Blue Jays will pick up one of DeJong’s options.

As everyone has seen by now, an MRI showed there is no structural damage in Bo Bichette’s right knee, per #BlueJays manager John Schneider, who described it as best case scenarios. Bichette isn’t in the lineup today but he’s day to day. Still determining if an IL stint is needed

— Kaitlyn McGrath (@kaitlyncmcgrath) August 1, 2023

*****END COMMUNIQUE*****

When trades occur that aren’t quite big enough to merit their own post, we sometimes compile our analysis into a compendium like this, where we touch on a number of transactions at one time. In this dispatch, I’ll cover the Reds’ acquisition of Sam Moll from Oakland, the Cubs’ trade for Jose Cuas from Kansas City, and the Diamondbacks’ trade for Jace Peterson, also from Oakland.

While the two teams tilted at Wrigley, the Cubs and Reds added interesting relief options to their managers’ toolkits. The Reds traded hard-throwing prospect Joe Boyle to the A’s for lefty Sam Moll and international pool space, while the Cubs traded outfielder Nelson Velázquez to the Royals for sidearm righty Jose Cuas. Read the rest of this entry »

One day before the trade deadline, the Mariners kept busy by swinging a couple of trades with a pair of NL West contenders. They dealt closer Paul Sewald to the Diamondbacks in exchange for a three-player package — infielder Josh Rojas, outfielder Dominic Canzone, and middle infield prospect Ryan Bliss — that should help fill some holes in their lineup. To create the space necessary to fit the first two of them onto their 40-man roster, they also sent outfielder AJ Pollock, infielder Mark Mathias, and cash considerations to the Giants for a player to be named later.

Neither of the moves are blockbusters, and it’s worth noting the extent to which these three teams are clustered by record but have divergent Playoff Odds. A year after breaking their 20-season playoff drought, the Mariners (55–51) have played sluggishly; even with a 17–9 July, they’re a longshot for the playoffs, with 18.8% odds entering Tuesday morning. They’re fourth in the AL West, five games out of first place, and 3.5 back in the Wild Card race, with five teams ahead of them and in a tie with the Yankees. The moves they made could help them this year, but aren’t impactful enough to change their fate; they may help more down the road.

The upstart Diamondbacks (57–50), who were in sole possession of first place in the NL West as recently as July 8, made the more aggressive of the deals, befitting their need to improve their lot. They’re third in the NL West, 3.5 games out of first and in a three-way tie with the Brewers and Marlins for the third Wild Card spot. The Giants (58–49) are in the most comfortable position of the three teams: second in the NL West, 2.5 games out of first, and occupying the top NL Wild Card spot. Their trade might not amount to much more than taking a couple of flyers with comparatively little risk involved, and the possibility that a more substantial deal on Tuesday may make this one a footnote. Read the rest of this entry »

Baseball is a game of uncertainty. Half an inch here or there can be the difference between a strikeout and a home run. Balls bounce strangely. Matchups don’t even out. The wind is blowing just the wrong way one day, or just the right way the next. But two things reoccur like Haley’s comet in the modern game: the Brewers are a few hitters short of a potent lineup and Mark Canha posts an above average but unexciting batting line. Today, those two things are teaming up – the Mets traded Canha to the Brewers in exchange for prospect Justin Jarvis.

It’s not that the Brewers plan on a punchless lineup. They’ve drafted plenty of hitters in recent years, and made trades to secure others besides. In the past few years, they’ve traded for Willy Adames, Jesse Winker, Rowdy Tellez, and William Contreras. They’ve promoted Sal Frelick, Brice Turang, Garrett Mitchell, and Joey Wiemer. Carlos Santana joined the team last week. Through it all, though, they’ve always seemed a few bats short. Someone gets injured. Someone regresses. The end result? An offense scuffling around or below league average, with a few spots providing downright embarrassing production.

This year, the entire infield has failed Milwaukee. Luis Urías hit his way back to the minors; Adames has a .202/.287/.388 line, good for an 82 wRC+. Turang is even worse, hitting .208/.278/.314 (61 wRC+). Brewers first basemen have a decidedly not nice 69 wRC+ in aggregate. Having an extra batter in the lineup hasn’t softened the blow, either: Brewers DHs have hit .205/.301/.308, the second-worst DH production across the majors. Despite a gaping hole at the top of the NL Central where the Cardinals usually feature, the Brewers have fallen out of first place thanks to the upstart Reds. They need more firepower, and the sooner, the better. Read the rest of this entry »

The Cubs made it clear that they’re buyers on Monday afternoon, acquiring third baseman Jeimer Candelario from the Nationals for shortstop Kevin Made and pitcher DJ Herz.

What a difference a week makes! After losing the opener of a four-game series to the Cardinals just over a week ago, the Cubs stood at 45–51, and it seemed more likely that they would be sellers than buyers come deadline time. An eight-game winning streak later, off the backs of the hated Cardinals and the moribund White Sox, changed that calculus; even a Sunday loss to break the streak wasn’t enough to banish the idea that the NL Central was there for the taking. After all, four games in the standings isn’t that wide a chasm, and with the fourth-best run differential in the National League, there’s at least one legitimate reason to think the Cubs have deserved better than their .500 record this year. The Pirates have faded, the Cardinals wouldn’t be trading off talent if even they thought they had a miracle in them, and neither of the Reds or Brewers are likely to take big steps forward. Read the rest of this entry »

Every year, the Rays and Guardians pull off a neat magic trick. They piece together an impressive starting rotation by using a few awesome pitchers they’ve developed, some mid-level guys who pitch way above their pedigree, and a few slots of the rotation that mostly look like scrubs but churn out solid value anyway. The Rays like to sprinkle in some cheap veteran acquisitions that turn out to be better than we all thought, too. When the inevitable heat death of the universe occurs, I half expect Cleveland and Tampa Bay to be locked in the 12th inning of a 2–2 game, so consistent are their developmental pipelines.

The 2023 season has put some stress on the Rays’ side of that equation, though. Their top-end starters have been excellent. Shane McClanahan and Zach Eflin have both provided great bulk, Tyler Glasnow has been fantastic since returning from injury, and Taj Bradley is promising despite a rough start to the season (but is headed to Triple-A to make room for Civale). But injuries have wreaked havoc on their depth this year: Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen, and Josh Fleming have all hit the 60-day IL, with only Fleming likely to return this year.

Something else strange is going on down on the Gulf Coast, too: the Rays’ bullpen has been atrocious. I half expected Google Docs to underline that sentence as incorrect, because this is part of the Tampa Bay mythos: pick some random relievers, sprinkle in some crazy arm angles, and bam: top-five bullpen. But instead it’s been a bottom-five bullpen, and that makes the starters’ jobs much harder. The Rays have fallen out of first place in the AL East, the Blue Jays are lurking not far behind; something had to change. Read the rest of this entry »

We all knew the Angels were desperate to add at the deadline. How desperate? Well, how desperate would you have to be to call your ex — two of your exes, actually — on a Sunday night?

The Halos continued their deadline restocking process by reacquiring a pair of their former first-round picks, Randal Grichuk and C.J. Cron, from Colorado in exchange for minor league pitchers Jake Madden and Mason Albright. (No, not the former secretary of state, but I’m gonna keep doing a double-take every time I see Albright’s name until well into his big league career.)

Every big league organization has its own special circumstances and cultural idiosyncrasies, but this trade brings together the two teams that have the best claim to being in unique situations. With Shohei Ohtani three months from free agency, the Angels sit four games out of a Wild Card spot with two teams to climb over. They face time pressure unlike anything most franchises have ever experienced. And the Rockies, well, are the Rockies. Read the rest of this entry »

The Cardinals are officially engaging in a moderate short-term rebuild, trading Jordan Hicks to Toronto for pitching prospects Sem Robberse and Adam Kloffenstein, and Jordan Montgomery to Texas for righty Tekoah Roby, infielder Thomas Saggese, and reliever John King. Each of these players could suit up for the Cardinals in the big leagues within the next 12 months, especially King (already a big leaguer) and the two pitchers coming back from Toronto, who will likely be added to the 40-man roster after the season. Roby and Saggese have spent their 2023 seasons at Double-A Frisco and are within range of the majors even though they don’t have to be put on the 40-man until after the 2024 slate. You can see where each of the newly-acquired prospects falls on the Cardinals list over on The Board.

Let’s start by going over the Montgomery return, since the most significant prospect acquired by the Cardinals comes over in that deal. Roby, 21, moved onto the Top 100 prospects list when I updated the Rangers system a couple of weeks ago, and he would have been even higher if not for his current shoulder injury, which shelved him in early June. Before he was shut down, Roby was consistently working with four plus pitches. He was sitting 94–95 mph with riding life, bending in one of the nastier curveballs in the minors, tilting in a similarly shaped slider in the mid-80s, and turning over a tailing low-80s changeup, all of which were capable of missing bats. He looked like a contender’s four-pitch, mid-rotation starter, like a less physical Hunter Brown.

Roby’s delivery does have some violence, but he’s always thrown strikes in spite of this. He is slightly undersized (but well-built) at 6-foot-1 and has now had arm injuries in two of his three pro seasons, so there’s definitely relief risk here despite his strike-throwing track record. From a stuff and pitch execution standpoint, he is where Jack Leiter was expected to be when he was drafted. On upside, Roby is a huge get for the Cardinals and could be the big league club’s best starting pitcher within a year or two. Once healthy, he has a chance to kick down the door, though shoulder issues can be particularly scary and destabilizing to a young pitcher’s career. Read the rest of this entry »