The Blue Jays are eight games under .500, 13.5 games out of the division lead and 4.5 games out of the second AL Wild Card, with five teams to climb over before they reach the Guardians. They came into Deadline Day with a 5.2% chance of making the playoffs. I’m as gung ho about going for it as the next guy, but that’s not a position from which you want to be trading prospects for big league talent. Read the rest of this entry »
Given the slew of injuries they’ve sustained within their rotation while running up the National League’s fourth-best record (63-49) — not to mention their lack of an obvious Game 1 starter — the Cubs had as much reason to trade for Tarik Skubal as any contender. Reportedly, they at least considered the possibility of dealing for the two-time Cy Young winner, yet like every World Series hopeful besides the Dodgers, they yielded to the two-time defending champions. On Sunday, however, the Cubs did land a substantial reinforcement for their rotation, acquiring 35-year-old righty Kevin Gausman from the Blue Jays in exchange for a pair of prospects, infielder Ty Southisene and outfielder Brett Bateman.
The connection between Toronto and Chicago made particular sense when I highlighted the likelihood that the Blue Jays would approach Monday’s trade deadline as sellers. Gausman, who is making $23 million in the final season of a five-year, $110 million contract, has a limited no-trade clause that allows him to block deals to eight teams, a list that reportedly includes the Brewers, Mariners, Pirates, and White Sox, all of whom are in the hunt for a playoff spot — but notably not the Cubs. As I noted in late June, at the time they traded for then-struggling Mets lefty David Peterson, five of the six pitchers forecast to throw the most innings for Chicago in our preseason Positional Power Rankings were on the injured list, and seven of the 11 pitchers who had made at least one start for the team (including openers) had landed on the IL at least once. The Cubs’ climb to the top of the NL Wild Card scrum since then justified further investment, and to their credit, less than 24 hours after Skubal was dealt, they made their move.
The trade was actually the second between the Cubs and Blue Jays on Sunday. Earlier in the day, Chicago sent 34-year-old righty Jameson Taillon, whom it had designated for assignment last Monday, to Toronto in exchange for cash or a player to be named later. More on him below, but first Gausman, who has not pitched as badly as either his 5-10 record or 4.38 ERA indicate. Though the latter mark is his highest since 2019, his 3.51 FIP is just one-tenth of a point higher than last season’s mark. His peripherals are only a hair or two worse than they were last year; the big issue is a 51-point spike in BABIP: Read the rest of this entry »
The Yankees acquired another bat for their offense on Sunday, bringing in first baseman/second baseman Luis García Jr. in return for pitchers Jack Cebert, Ben Grable, Yovanny Cruz, and Jake Bird. Scratched from Sunday’s lineup due to the strong possibility of a trade being completed, García has had a breakout season, at least when it comes to power, hitting .283/.313/.560 with 23 home runs in 104 games, for a wRC+ of 134 and 2.2 WAR.
The offense has been a real sore spot for New York lately, so making an addition here was a primary concern for the club. When the Yankees woke up for an off-day on the morning of June 1, they ranked second in baseball in wRC+ and fourth overall in runs scored. Aaron Judge had gone 1-for-4 with two RBI the night before, and that was the last time we saw him in a game. Before first pitch that day, the three-time MVP was removed from the lineup due to lingering shoulder soreness. Later, after imaging revealed a stress fracture in Judge’s right rib cage, he was placed on the IL.
Since losing Judge, the Yankees have had the worst wRC+ in baseball, at 87, and have ranked 26th in the league in runs scored. That they have still managed to play barely winning baseball, going 27-26 since then, is thanks to their elite pitching. Crunching some numbers, if the Yankees had merely had a league-average pitching staff over the last two months, they would have about six fewer wins right now, which is basically their entire cushion in the wild card race. Read the rest of this entry »
Something about the the gut-wrenching way Tarik Skubal’s final Tigers start ended — with Detroit coughing up a big lead as it desperately clung to its playoff hopes — made it easier both to accept that he’d be traded and to understand that dealing him would probably be the right move.
Indeed, it was a sobering microcosm of the team’s season for Skubal’s final inning to end awkwardly rather than in triumph, and then for things to go sideways in unexpected fashion. Like a lot of us, I picked the Tigers to make a deep postseason run. For several reasons, including so that I might look smart (not dumb, like they say, but smart), I hoped during the last several weeks that the Tigers would stay hot enough for it to make sense for them to keep Skubal. As the schedule reached this weekend’s checkpoint, and Detroit stumbled deeper into a very crowded AL Wild Card field, it became clearer what the front office had to do. Late on Saturday night, the Tigers traded Skubal to the Dodgers for Triple-A starting pitcher River Ryan, Double-A outfielder Zyhir Hope, and Low-A pitcher Brady Smith. Read the rest of this entry »
You and I might never know if the Rays could have outbid the Dodgers for Tarik Skubal, but with the no. 1 player on the trading block off the board, Tampa Bay swept into action within hours. For the cost of outfielder Aidan Smith, second baseman Émilien Pitre, and pitcher Gary Gill Hill, the Rays have acquired right-hander Freddy Peralta from the New York Mets. The Rays, in a departure from their habitual cheapskatitude, are assuming the remaining $2.47 million left on Peralta’s contract.
At the time of the trade, the Rays had a sizable-but-not-completely secure 3.5-game lead over the Yankees, both for first place in the AL East and the no. 1 overall seed in the American League. With the deepest farm system in the league to trade from, the Rays were wise to shore up their rotation, both for the stretch run and for the postseason itself.
The Rays have a pretty good staff already; they’re seventh in baseball in team ERA- and eighth in K-BB%. Their starters are fourth in ERA-. Tampa Bay sent not one but three pitchers — Drew Rasmussen, Nick Martinez, and closer Bryan Baker — to the All-Star Game last month. Read the rest of this entry »
Alright friends, let’s break down the big deadline deal from Saturday night that everyone’s talking about, the one that sent a 29-year-old left-handed pitcher who’s an impending free agent from the AL Central to an NL division leader. That’s right, we’re talking about Bailey Falter.
Well, that was fun.
On Saturday night, just before the big news about Tarik Skubal broke, Jeff Passan of ESPN reported that the Royals had traded Falter and veteran outfielder Lane Thomas to Atlanta. FanSided’s Robert Murray reported that the return was minor league pitchers Carter Holton and Lucas Braun. Falter may be able to help a depleted Braves staff finish out the regular season, but he’s headed to Triple-A Gwinnett. Thomas is the clear headliner here. One more Skubal connection before we move on: The biggest moment of Thomas’ career so far came during Game 5 of the 2024 ALDS, when he powered the Guardians past the Tigers with a grand slam off Skubal. Should the Braves and the Dodgers meet in the playoffs this season, which certainly looks like a possibility right now, that will surely be on the minds of everyone involved.
While Thomas has played all three outfield positions this year, he’s spent most of his time in center. But with Michael Harris II ensconced in center in Atlanta and Ronald Acuña Jr. in right, he’ll now be relegated to left field. That’s probably for the best, as his defense has graded out very badly in center but is roughly average in the corners. What’s more, the Braves could use the help out there. Left field is one of three positions where they merited placement as part of Jay Jaffe’s Replacement-Level Killers series; they’ve gotten 0.4 WAR out of the position this season, which ranks 23rd in baseball.
Of course, they were supposed to have Jurickson Profar in left, but he’s serving his second PED suspension since signing a three-year, $42 million employment contract with the Braves; one can only imagine what his year-end performance review will look like. Mauricio Dubón and Mike Yastrzemski have split time in left in his place, but not quite the way the Braves would have hoped. Yastrzemski started the season there while Dubón filled in for the injured Ha-Seong Kim at shortstop. When Kim returned and Acuña went down with a hamstring injury, Yastrzemski moved to right field, where he shared time with Eli White, and Dubón got left field to himself. Dubón, Yastrzemski, and White have all been below average at the plate this season. With Acuña back from the IL, Dubòn will presumably move into more of a utility role while Thomas platoons with Yaz.
Thomas had a very rough 2025 season, losing time to plantar fasciitis and putting up a 48 wRC+ and -0.5 WAR across 39 games. This year, he’s got a 101 wRC+. That’s almost exactly his career average, and it’s not much of an improvement over Dubón’s 94 mark. Moreover, Dubón’s defense has graded out well this season just about everywhere he’s played. As a result, he’s got 1.7 WAR to Thomas’s 0.8. Even accounting for the fact that Dubón has gotten roughly 100 more plate appearances than Thomas, he’s still been the more productive player this season and not by a little. So why bring in Thomas?
First, Thomas isn’t simply going to absorb Dubón’s plate appearances. Thomas will take some from Dubón, but he’ll also take some from White. Dubón is a great defender, but he hasn’t gotten to show off his versatility of late. He’ll probably get to do more bouncing around the diamond to wherever he can be most useful now. Rookie Jim Jarvis is running a 101 wRC+ at shortstop, but Dubón might end up back at the six should Jarvis stop outperforming his xwOBA.
Second, it doesn’t sound Thomas is just going to be the everyday left fielder. “The plan is not the exact same role he had in Kansas City, where he was playing every day in center,” Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos told reporters. “His strength is hitting left-handers.” Anthopoulos elaborated. “We’ve been facing a lot of left-handed openers. I think there’s been moments when [manager] Walt [Weiss] has been in a tough spot, and where he’s had to use a catcher as a right-handed pinch-hitter, and things like that. I don’t want to speak for Walt, but I think having a second right-handed option along with Eli [White], that would have opened things up for him.” Thomas faced righties nearly 60% of the time in Kansas City, and that number sure sounds like it will be much lower in Atlanta. That would be a big deal, because he’s got serious platoon splits. This season, he’s got an 84 wRC+ against righties and 125 wRC+ against lefties, and that’s actually less extreme than his career numbers.
Third, this graph might have something to do with it:
Thomas got a slow start, but he’s looked much better as the season has gone on. He ran a 124 wRC+ in July, though I’ll note that he’s been ice-cold lately, running a 26 wRC+ over his last 12 games. I doubt the Braves put too much stock in these kinds of splits, but it’s also at least worth mentioning that this is par for the course. Thomas has a career wRC+ of 104 in the second half, compared to a 96 in the first half. Whether or not you believe that he’ll be hotter from here on out, Thomas is also having an interesting season. His walk and strikeout rates are among the best of his entire career, and although his top-end contact quality hasn’t changed much, his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are the highest he’s put up since 2021. He’s making better swing decisions and making more solid contact this season, which is why his 94 DRC+ is his highest since 2023.
Thomas isn’t a game-changing bat, but you can at least talk yourself into the idea that he’s got more in the tank than his full-season stats indicate. He represents a small upgrade at a position of real weakness for the Braves. He gives them both flexibility and depth, which is rightly a priority with Acuña recovering from a hamstring injury that has already flared up once. Lastly, the Braves should be able to put him in a better position to succeed by letting him spend much more of his time facing lefties.
I don’t know whether the Braves took Falter because they might want to use him or because he represents salary relief for the Royals. He’s making $3.6 million in arbitration, so that’s at least a possibility. He’s spent much of the year on the IL with elbow inflammation, and he’s only made five appearances in Kansas City. The Royals DFA’d him earlier in the year, and his Triple-A numbers, a 3.35 ERA and 3.46 FIP, have been solid over 17 appearances. Atlanta could certainly use the depth, and they’re going to spend the next 30 hours looking for more pitching help. Joey Wentz is out for the season. Spencer Schwellenbach is isn’t yet facing live hitters. Spencer Strider’s future is uncertain. Robert Suarez has been out since June 19. Joe Jiménez, who hasn’t pitched since 2024, had another setback.
Now let’s get to the return. Braun is a 6-foot righty who turns 25 in a couple weeks. He’s got an intriguingly compact delivery that gives him an extremely low release point. It’s deceptive. It must look like the ball is just sort of popping out of his shoulder to hitters:
The Braves took Braun out of Cal State Northridge in the sixth round of the 2023 draft. He’s put up great numbers across the minors. Eric Longenhagen ranked him 10th in the system last year as a 45-FV prospect, seeing him as a future fourth or fifth starter. However, Brendan Gawlowski noted Braun’s lack of a putaway pitch and ranked him 22nd this year as a 40 FV – lower than Holton – despite a long list of positive attributes: great athleticism, a robust arsenal, the ability to hit the strike zone, success in the minors, and the funky delivery I mentioned earlier. “Deception is key here as well,” Brendan wrote, “both modern (a slightly low release) and old school (glove throw, a little hesitation toward the top that can mess with timing). All of those factors are going to be important to maintain because Braun’s stuff is just okay.”
That’s baseball. Will Braun’s funk be enough to keep fooling major leaguers? The best projections say yes, and see him as a future no. 4 starter. Brendan’s not quite so sanguine, seeing his median projection as “a length guy who can flex in and out of the rotation as needed.” We’re not going to know for sure until we see it happen. Knowing this, it’s worth noting that when Braun got promoted to Triple-A this season, his numbers took a step back. His strikeout rate dropped from 25.1% to 16.1% and his walk rate rose from 5.4% to 8.3%. His ERA rose from 3.20 to 3.92, and his FIP and expected numbers took even bigger jumps. Regardless, we’ll probably find out soon enough. Royals GM J.J. Picollo said he hopes Brain will pitch in Kansas City sooner rather than later, which I interpret to mean later this year.
Holton is an undersized lefty who sits 92-94 mph with a herky-jerky delivery and an over-the-top release point. He was a three-year starter at Vanderbilt, but after a brilliant freshman showing, his performance worsened in each of the following years. The Braves drafted him in the second round in 2024, but he underwent Tommy John that August after pitching just two innings and missed the entire 2025 season. Eric ranked him 18th in their system last year as a 40 FV, noting that in those two innings, he showcased an interesting slider. Brendan put him 19th this March (still as a 40 FV), noting that the hard slider really does look good. Unfortunately, Holton doesn’t have much beyond the slider. He’s now 23 years old, and he isn’t putting up great numbers in Low-A. He’s got a 4.32 ERA and 4.53 FIP.
I get that this is not the Tarik Skubal trade, or even the Luis Castillotrade. Thomas’ stock is lower than it was when the Guardians traded for him at the deadline two years ago, and it might seem odd for the pitching-starved Braves to be sending away a starter who seems awfully close to major league-ready. But they’re not in the market for fourth starters right now. The Braves are headed for the playoffs, and they’re looking for ways to improve their chances once they get there. They’re shoring up their weaknesses and building up their depth. They’ve landed one of the better outfielders on the market, and should they run into Skubal and the Dodgers down the line, they’ll undoubtedly feel a bit better about their chances.
A year after a massive deadline sell, the Twins have turned into tepid buyers.
First, on Thursday, they acquired lefty reliever A.J. Minter in a swap with the Mets; then, the next night, they traded with the Orioles for righty starter Dean Kremer. Neither deal is Earth shattering on its own, but together the trades underscore Minnesota’s surprising position with two months left to play in 2026. The team enters Sunday’s rubber match against the Mariners at 56-56, just three games behind the White Sox in the AL Central and tied with the Guardians for the final Wild Card spot.
Minter gives some length to the shallow Twins bullpen. The group has a 4.87 ERA — fifth worst in the majors this year. He joins the team with a 2.35 ERA in 23 innings and figures to see plenty of medium- and high-leverage opportunities, as the lefty counterpart to righties Andrew Morris and Yoendrys Gómez in the late innings. Read the rest of this entry »
Pre-deadline trades generally follow a template, with contenders filling needs by acquiring players from teams outside of the playoff races. Not every late July or early August deal fits into that pattern, however, and Saturday night brought a less common variety of trade, one between two American League teams striving for spots in the postseason field. The Mariners, who spent most of June atop the AL West but are now trying to claw their way back to the top of the division or at worst into a Wild Card slot, sent right-hander Luis Castillo to the AL Central-leading White Sox in exchange for reliever Seranthony Domínguez, outfielder Nolan Jones, and catching prospect Boston Smith.
While the players switching teams in this deal might fill some clear needs in their new locations, none of them offers a strong guarantee. Domínguez and Castillo both have high ERAs and messy peripherals this season, and Jones has been stashed in Triple-A all year after sub-replacement level performances in 2024 and ’25. Perhaps the most interesting aspect of this deal is that the White Sox are absorbing all of the money remaining on Castillo’s contract, which runs through the end of next season. The Mariners not only freed up some cash, which they may very well reallocate in the coming days, but they potentially opened up a spot in their rotation for Kade Anderson, the top pitcher on our recently updated Top 100 Prospects list, and added a prospect to their system. The ability to do so, while leaving behind an all-homegrown rotation that already includes three former first-round picks, speaks well of their vaunted pitching development program.
That said, it’s not hard to understand why Mariners fans might view this deal with some amount of cynicism and disappointment. After coming within one win of the franchise’s first trip to the World Series last October, the Mariners are 54-58, third in the AL West, three games behind the Astros (57-55), a game and a half behind the Rangers (55-56), and two games out of the third AL Wild Card spot, where seven teams — including the Tigers, who tradedTarik Skubal to the Dodgers on Saturday night — are within three and a half games. Our Playoff Odds put them at 47.7% at this writing, but if they don’t repurpose some of the savings from offloading Castillo’s salary, or come away from the deadline without something more exciting than middle relief and a prospect for their trouble, this will be remembered as a salary dump or even a white flag, not to mention an abrupt and bitter finish to a stretch in which the Mariners finally ended their postseason drought. The Mariners acquired Castillo from the Reds in a five-player blockbuster ahead of the 2022 traded deadline, and he not only helped them reach the playoffs after a 21-year absence but signed a a five-year, $108 million extension that was supposed to bring more glory than just one more trip to October. Read the rest of this entry »
Sometimes, the trade deadline doesn’t need to be complicated. Sometimes the best team in baseball goes out and gets the best player available, perhaps the best pitcher in the game. The Dodgers, two-time defending World Series champions and tied with the Brewers for the most wins, are upgrading their rotation as much as it’s possible to upgrade it. On Saturday, they acquired Tarik Skubal from the Tigers in exchange for prospects Zyhir Hope, River Ryan, and Brady Smith, as Jeff Passan first reported.
The entire trade deadline has revolved around Skubal, the best player available time of year in ages. And who better to trade for him than the Dodgers, who have one of the deepest farm systems in baseball in addition to their major league riches? Oh, other teams can see Skubal’s magnificence just as plainly as Los Angeles can, and they have prospects too. But Andrew Friedman and the Dodgers make a habit of winning trade sweepstakes like these, with Manny Machado, Max Scherzer, and Trea Turner being the best other examples.
One ancillary effect of paying a bunch of stars to play for you is that you have fewer available roster spots for your minor leaguers to graduate into. That cuts both ways – there also aren’t enough at-bats to go around for young players – but the benefit is that the Dodgers don’t need to build their playoff lineup with three or four slots filled by pre-arbitration players. It naturally leads to trades; the Dodgers don’t have as many opportunities to hand to their own minor leaguers, because they keep having such good major leaguers. That means that they’re incentivized to go out and make trades just like this one, which leaves even less room for the good minor leaguers, which leads to…. well, you get the idea. Read the rest of this entry »
If this trade deadline turns out to be a dud, you’re going to see a lot of people blaming the 12-team playoff format, which has flattened the competitive landscape around the edges of the playoff field. As of Saturday morning, 11 of the 15 American League teams have at least a 25% chance of making the playoffs. In the National League, there’s a bit more stratification, but nine of 15 teams have at least a 19% chance of making the playoffs. The few teams that are well and truly out of the race are so positioned for a reason — i.e. they don’t have many good players to sell in the first place.
You could use that as an excuse to sit out the deadline, or you could do what the Brewers and Guardians did: find another contender to trade with. The Great Lakes region’s two great perennial discount contenders hooked up on a four-player trade that sent catcher Bo Naylor and reliever Codi Heuer to Milwaukee in exchange for outfielder Blake Perkins and reliever Craig Yoho.
Credit to baseball ops bigwigs Chris Antonetti and Matt Arnold for finding a trade partner in this treacherous market, but this kind of swap does have its drawbacks. Namely: None of the four big leaguers on the move in this deal has been any good in 2026. Read the rest of this entry »
