Corbin Martin made his major league debut on Sunday, striking out nine and walking one over 5.1 innings, taking over, at least temporarily, the rotation spot of the struggling Collin McHugh. McHugh, a steady hand for the Astros since 2014, has seen his walk rate and home run rate increase, culminating in a three inning, eight earned run outing against the Royals on May 7.

Martin’s debut made him the fourth draftee from the 2017 class to reach the majors, after Kyle Wright, Nick Margevicius, and Griffin Canning. Long considered a talented prospect, Martin was heavily recruited out of Cypress Ranch High School and chose to turn down pro overtures to attend Texas A&M. The Houston-area native (he grew up in Hempstead and moved to Cypress for high school, both northwest of the city) had some ups and downs in his college career, often flashing tantalizing stuff but struggling to consistently harness it. He pitched nearly exclusively out of the bullpen for the Aggies during his first two years, amassing a total of just 44 innings pitched and striking out 54 while walking 33.

Scouts considered Martin’s 2016 summer campaign in the prestigious Cape Cod League to be a potential breakout. Pitching out of the bullpen for the Falmouth Commodores, Martin struck out 22 and walked just three in 15.2 innings, flashing a dynamic mid-90s fastball and an above average breaking ball to go along with his easy, athletic delivery. There was significant first round buzz heading into his junior season, and an expectation that he would cement himself atop of the Aggies’ strong pitching rotation and lead them through SEC play.

Martin ended up making 24 appearances and 13 starts as a junior for A&M, finishing third on the team in innings pitched behind Brigham Hill and Stephen Kolek. The inconsistent command he showed during his first two years in College Station was less significant but was still present, as he walked 38 batters in 87.2 innings. The intrigue scouts saw in Martin kept him in the conversation for those going toward the top of the draft despite the inconsistent performance. The Astros saw an opportunity to get the athletic right-hander in the second round of the 2017 draft, giving him a $1 million signing bonus with the 56th overall pick. Read the rest of this entry »

Since our last effort to project the top 10 picks in this year’s draft, things have come into greater focus in the top half of the first round, though it’s still hazy beyond that even to the clubs picking in the back half of the round. For those picks, what you’ll read here is more a product of partial intel and tendencies. We also have a good sense of the high-end prep players who may end up going to college, and the team/player that may define the top of the draft. For reference, here are the bonus pool amounts and slot values.

1. Orioles – Adley Rutschman, C, Oregon State
We’re sticking with Rutschman here, but other teams still think there’s a chance new GM Mike Elias will, as he did with Houston, find a way to make an underslot deal with this pick to acquire more talent later. Cal 1B Andrew Vaughn may be emerging as a fit for this, if the Orioles are uncomfortable with Rutschman’s medical (he had a lower leg bruise, and back and shoulder soreness in 2018, and a shoulder injury prevented him from playing quarterback during his sophomore year of high school) or if they think the bonus he’ll command will undercut the rest of their class. As you’ll see below, Vaughn slides in this scenario. You could argue Vaughn belongs in a tier of his own behind Rutschman, so signing him for the slot value of pick four or five could mean reallocating as much as $3 million to other picks, which could be a very attractive option for Baltimore. Early rumors that Georgia high school SS C.J. Abrams would be an option for this type of sequence seem to have died.

2. Royals – Bobby Witt, Jr., SS, Colleyville Heritage HS (TX)
It sounds like Kansas City’s options are Rutschman or Witt at this pick.

3. White Sox – C.J. Abrams, SS, Blessed Trinity HS (GA)
Vaughn seemed tailor made for the White Sox here given how talented he is, and Chicago’s recent preference for college bats with high picks, but Abrams seems to be in the lead now. Sources have told us that heavy-hitting White Sox personnel have seen Abrams a combined five or six times recently. Since Abrams would likely slide to the sixth pick if he doesn’t go third, there may be some pool money saved here (about $1.5 million based on the gap in slot between this pick and the sixth). That money would go a long ways toward tempting another mid-first round, high-upside prep talent to the White Sox next pick at 45, as the savings plus their overage would be a late-teen’s value slot.

4. Marlins – J.J. Bleday, RF, Vanderbilt
The Marlins seem like they would take Bleday if things play out this way. New scouting director D.J. Svihlik coached him at Vanderbilt. The rumor in scouting circles is that Derek Jeter likes Abrams, but the shortstop isn’t available in this scenario and Jeter isn’t expected to assert himself in the draft. Texas prep 3B Brett Baty is the rumored underslot option here.

5. Tigers – Andrew Vaughn, 1B, Cal
Here is where things get really interesting. The Tigers have been locked in on Riley Greene all spring, and many expect him to be the pick here regardless of who else is on the board. But with the recent development that Vaughn could possibly get to their pick, it’s unclear where Detroit stands on him. They had personnel with an Edgertronic camera at Cal’s recent road series at Arizona, so they didn’t just assume he’d be gone by this point. He would at least get a long look here.

The Andrew Vaughn Scenarios
If Detroit opts for Greene, then where does Vaughn, arguably one of the best college hitters of all time, fall? Except for Texas, who may end up locked in an underslot deal, the next several teams are all NL clubs with big names at first base — San Diego (Eric Hosmer, Josh Naylor), Cincinnati (Joey Votto), Atlanta (Freddie Freeman, Austin Riley) and San Francisco (Brandon Belt, Buster Posey) — and we’re not sure how that might impact how teams value a likely quick-moving Vaughn. We tend to think someone would just realize he’s a great value and take him anyway. The string of NL teams with several good and/or highly-paid first base options certainly isn’t helpful, and possibly unlucky for Vaughn, though you could argue this is the sort of scenario that makes it more likely he goes No. 1. Vaughn had a dry spell earlier in the year as Cal played LSU and began PAC 12 play, but he’s hit in 17 of his last 18 games, batting .418 during that span, despite being pitched around in ways that have impacted his power output.

6. Padres – Riley Greene, RF, Hagerty HS (FL)
GM A.J. Preller was seen at Abrams and Bleday games last week while he was in the southeast for draft meetings, and each would seem to be in play if they are still here. We think any of the first six hitters we have mocked here would be the favorite to go in a mix that also includes Arizona State OF Hunter Bishop, TCU LHP Nick Lodolo, and Kentucky LHP Zack Thompson, who have all been scouted heavily by the Padres down the stretch.

7. Reds – Nick Lodolo, LHP, TCU
The Reds are believed to be looking for a college player, ideally a bat, but have been connected mostly to the bats going ahead of them. We think they would take Vaughn if he got here, but we aren’t sure. In this scenario, they get their pick from among of all the pitching, and while Lodolo hasn’t been as good of late, he’s still seen as the favorite to go off the board first among the college arms.

8. Rangers – Brett Baty, 3B, Lake Travis HS (TX)
For over a month, Texas has been rumored to be looking underslot here and we’ve heard three names, presented here in the order of their likelihood to be the choice: Baty, Texas JC RHP Jackson Rutledge, and Tulane 3B Kody Hoese. Baty is from a high school in Austin and is a trendy underslot target for clubs in the top 10 as he checks all the boxes of a Nolan Gorman or Austin Riley, but he’s 19.6 on draft day. We have the Rangers taking Baty’s prep teammate Jimmy Lewis with their next pick, following the blueprint of the Blue Jays taking Texas high school teammates last year (Jordan Groshans and Adam Kloffenstein from Magnolia HS). The Rangers may get a hometown discount if they did this, along with having extra money to spend at later picks.

9. Braves – Hunter Bishop, LF, Arizona State
The Braves have been tied to a number of players that go ahead of them here, with Bishop the last one among them. They may opt for a pitcher if Bishop goes seventh or eighth.

10. Giants – Bryson Stott, SS, UNLV
Missouri OF Kameron Misner is getting a long look by the Giants, but likely goes about a dozen picks later. They’re taking a long look at the pitching, with West Virginia RHP Alek Manoah believed to be their top option of the available arms. This is the spot in the draft where the Giants could have a final group of 3-4 players, with one of them going in the mid-20s because opinions vary much more team-to-team after the top tier of guys. The Giants have been tied to Stott for a while. He is often compared to Brandon Crawford (more for his build and bat; he’s not that level of defender), and fits the various tendencies of new GM Farhan Zaidi and new scouting director Michael Holmes.

11. Blue Jays – Jackson Rutledge, RHP, San Jacinto JC (TX)
The Jays have been tied to Thompson (who has an elbow that worries some teams despite never having surgery) and Rutledge (who had hip labrum surgery in 2018), along with some of the college bats above if they slide, and prep CF Corbin Carroll, who could be the prep bat who slides just enough to make it to the Diamondbacks’ pick, where they can assert their draft-leading pool.

12. Mets – Zack Thompson, LHP, Kentucky
Thompson has been mentioned here the most. A decision maker was in to see Elon RHP George Kirby shove last weekend. Most expect a college pitcher to be the pick.

13. Twins – Alek Manoah, RHP, West Virginia
The Twins are in a nice spot to pick through the leftovers of the second tier of talent and get a top-10 quality player for slot or below, to set up paying an overslot prep later. Manoah, Texas Tech 3B Josh Jung, and Baylor C Shea Langeliers all make sense here.

14. Phillies – Josh Jung, 3B, Texas Tech
It sounds like this would be Rutledge’s floor, as he’s in play at most of the last half dozen picks. The Phillies have sent in heat multiple times to see Alabama prep SS Gunnar Henderson, who has a couple interested clubs in the teens, but is seen by most as a late first round type. Chicago-area prep RHP Quinn Priester is also of interest here.

15. Angels – George Kirby, RHP, Elon
The Angels have been tied mostly to high school players: Henderson (who GM Billy Eppler has seen), Priester, Florida prep RHP Matthew Allan (rumors have him seeking $4 million, so he’d be overslot starting at this pick), Tennessee prep CF Maurice Hampton, and NorCal prep SS Kyren Paris, who is another polarizing prospect with interest in the mid-first round, but isn’t a top-40 prospect for some clubs.

16. D’Backs – Corbin Carroll, CF, Lakeside HS (WA)
The D’Backs have lots of picks and the most pool money, so they’re expected to flex this muscle and take some sliding prep talents; they’re also generally expected to lean toward upside prep types up top. Allan and the rest of the Signability Guys make some sense here, as does Priester.

The Signability Guys
The toughest sign in the draft is New Jersey prep RHP Jack Leiter, son of Al Leiter and a Vanderbilt commit. It’s long been rumored his price is over $4 million and may also come with a short list of clubs he would even be willing to sign with for that amount of money. (The rumor is that list may only include the Yankees and Mets.) Leiter’s prep teammate and fellow Vanderbilt commit SS Anthony Volpe is apparently looking for at least $3 million, and may also have a short list of clubs that he’d play for, believed to also be northeast-focused. We mentioned Allan (Florida commit) above, though his talent level is seen as close to $4 million, so he’s likely to get paid, while Leiter isn’t seen as being quite that good and might come with less willingness to sign in general.

Volpe and Leiter are both advised by the same group and headline what could be an all-time recruiting class for Vanderbilt. The only other top prospect with a good chance to get to campus, according to sources, is North Carolina popup LHP Blake Walston (N.C. State commit), as he has a polarized market, so there aren’t as many spots for him to be taken and paid, though it’s still likely that happens. The same goes for Georgia prep RHP Brett Thomas, a South Carolina commit. Two more lower-ranked prospects in Florida — RHP Brandon Sproat (Florida commit) and Arizona C Kody Huff (Stanford commit) — are threats to go to college as well.

The rest of the higher-tier of the signability list are all Vanderbilt commits: SoCal LHP/1B Spencer Jones, Florida RHP Kendall Williams, Maine CF Tre Fletcher, and Washington SS Carter Young. Vanderbilt already has seven players on our 2020 board and three more on our 2021 board, so they could end up with half of their scholarship roster in 2020 having top five round draft potential.

17. Nationals – Shea Langeliers, C, Baylor
Kirby would make some sense here but we’ve heard they prefer Langeliers. Allan fits their tendencies and is the other loudest name mentioned here, but last year’s top pick was an overslot Florida prep RHP (Mason Denaburg) and he’s still in extended spring training, so it may be hard to do that again.

18. Pirates – Gunnar Henderson, SS, Morgan Academy HS (AL)
The Pirates are tied to Henderson, Priester, Texas prep RHP J.J. Goss (who is in play at a number of picks starting around here), and Puerto Rican prep SS Matthew Lugo, though Lugo makes more sense at their next pick. Prep righties are the running backs of the MLB draft, as they tend to slide, but team preference also plays a big part (clubs are specific about frames and deliveries, and some just won’t take a prep righty with their first pick), so they are more likely to go in a non-consensus order than other demographics.

19. Cardinals – Will Wilson, SS, North Carolina State
Wilson may be in play for most clubs in the mid-20s but St. Louis is on him, and he fits the mold of the versatile middle infielders they prefer. Kirby also makes some sense if he gets here.

20. Mariners – Anthony Volpe, SS, Delbarton HS (NJ)
Volpe and Georgia prep SS Nasim Nunez are similar players and are both mentioned here most often.

21. Braves – Quinn Priester, RHP, Cary-Grove HS (IL)
Priester has lots of landing spots and given Allan’s demands and below average command, has more possible landing spots, so sources are calling him the likely top prep pitcher off the board. Wilson and Florida prep RHP Brennan Malone (who recently hit 99 mph) both make some sense here as well.

22. Rays – Keoni Cavaco, 3B, Eastlake HS (CA)
Lots of young-for-the-class prep bats (Cavaco, Paris, Henderson, Volpe, Hampton) are rising into this range and pushing down other prospects expected to go around here. Teams that lean on models will push these players up the most and those with loud tools will attract interest from a wide group of clubs; Cavaco does both but his weakness is a lack of track record.

23. Rockies – Kameron Misner, RF, Missouri
Misner has interest as high at pick 10 to the Giants and also could last until the 30s due to his lack of track record and spotty performance versus the SEC this spring, but there’s legit 70 power and deceptive athleticism if a club believes their player dev group can dial in the approach.

24. Indians – Kyren Paris, SS, Freedom HS (CA)
Paris may not even make it to this pick, but the Indians are known in the industry for targeting young-for-the-class bats, so expect a couple from that aforementioned group to be in their final mix.

25. Dodgers – Brennan Malone, RHP, IMG Academy HS (FL)
The Dodgers have been tied to a few prospects, like Clemson SS Logan Davidson, Volpe, and handful of prep pitchers, which backs up their willingness to tap any demographic. Malone arguably has the best mix of now stuff, command, and delivery/arm action quality in the draft.

26. D’Backs – Matthew Allan, RHP, Seminole HS (FL)
Allan has flashed two 70 pitches (fastball, curveball) at times this spring and Arizona has the financial muscle to get him to this pick.

27. Cubs – Logan Davidson, SS, Clemson
Davidson strikes out too much, but he’s a big, switch-hitting shortstop who has always produced and some clubs think they can dial in the approach.

28. Brewers – Maurice Hampton, CF, Memphis University HS (TN)
Hampton fits the Brewers’ upside type as a young-for-the-class, up-the-middle athlete with big exit velos, though he’s raw enough to get to this pick. Hampton is also an LSU cornerback commit but should be signable in this range.

29. A’s – Michael Busch, 1B, North Carolina
Busch shouldn’t last this long on talent, but with young prep bats sneaking up, the college first baseman without a 70 tool may be the one to slide, where Oakland should be happy to scoop him up.

30. Yankees – Tyler Callihan, 3B, Providence HS (FL)
The Yankees are tied to Misner and Lugo, and figure to look for prospects with tools big enough to play a role for them in the big leagues. Some think Callihan could be a 60 hit/power third baseman and New York cares less about age for prep hitters than other clubs (Callihan is 19.0 on draft day, the same as Blake Rutherford in 2016).

31. Dodgers – Kody Hoese, 3B, Tulane
Landing spots for Georgia prep RHP Daniel Espino have been hard to find, with more than a handful of clubs totally out, but some clubs that emphasize now stuff amongst prep pitchers seem interesting in the 20-40 range. The Dodgers could pull the trigger here, but Hoese is a better value, and likely doesn’t get past Houston at the next pick.

32. Astros – Daniel Espino, RHP, Premier Academy HS (GA)
This is believed to be Hoese’s floor. They’ve taken a long look at UNC Wilmington SS Greg Jones recently, arguably the top athlete in the draft and with a decent eye at the plate, but in need of a swing overhaul. Espino makes some sense here and could move quickly in a system geared to his strengths.

33. D’Backs – Matthew Lugo, SS, Beltran Academy HS (PR)
34. D’Backs – J.J. Goss, RHP, Cypress Ranch HS (TX)
35. Marlins – Nasim Nunez, SS, Collins Hill HS (GA)
36. Rays – Greg Jones, SS, UNC Wilmington
37. Pirates – Brooks Lee, SS, San Luis Obispo HS (CA)
38. Yankees – Drey Jameson, RHP, Ball State
39. Twins – Braden Shewmake, SS, Texas A&M
40. Rays – Ryne Nelson, RHP, Oregon
41. Rangers – Jimmy Lewis, RHP, Lake Travis HS (TX)

Over the last decade, pitchers have striven to be more and more like Stephen Strasburg. While Strasburg has always had one of the better changeups in the game, the 30-year-old righty has long used a four-seam fastball up in the zone paired with a big curve to dominate hitters. It’s a combo the Astros have famously used to successfully transform multiple pitchers, but almost nobody has been better than Strasburg with both the four-seamer and the curve over the last decade. The graph below shows all pitchers with at least 500 innings pitched who have thrown a four-seamer and curve, and the total run value the two pitches have produced.

Sure, Clayton Kershaw is on another planet, but Strasburg is the only other pitcher at least 50 runs above average on both pitches. Since 2016, he’s been the best at combining the fastball and the curve to get great results. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller banter about inside-the-park homers versus over-the-fence homers, the gratifying rise of home-run robberies, and the unique career of Edwin Jackson (who’s about to have played for the most-ever MLB teams and with the most-ever MLB teammates), then discuss the convergence of starting pitching and relief pitching and play a game to guess whether randomly selected relievers are having good or bad seasons (plus some closing banter about bobblehead dolls).

Audio intro: Al Green, "Have You Been Making Out O.K."
Audio outro: Paul McCartney, "Nod Your Head"

Sam on deep flyouts
Ben on HR robberies
Link to Rob Arthur on bullpen roles
Link to Ben on saves distribution
Link to Ben on bullpenning
Link to Sam on reliever roles and performance
Link to Rob Mains on bullpens
Link to Sam’s bobblehead video
Link to preorder The MVP Machine

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Take one look at the numbers, and Yu Darvish is having a pretty rough 2019. A 5.40 ERA is bad enough, but he’s actually outperforming his FIP, which sits at a grisly 6.49. While it’s only eight starts, a small enough sample that I’d normally counsel patience, Cubs fans surely don’t feel that way — 16 games into his Cubs career after an injury-shortened 2018, Darvish has compiled a 5.16 ERA (5.64 FIP) and been worth -0.1 fWAR. A closer look at Darvish, however, makes the picture far more muddled. Despite his undeniably rough start, silver linings abound in his underlying statistics.

The story with Darvish has to start with walks. No one would ever call him a control pitcher (he’s had a walk rate higher than league average in five of his seven seasons), but he’s veered from effectively wild to caricature this year. His 19.3% walk rate is not only first in baseball, it’s first in baseball by a comical margin — among pitchers with 30 IP, he’s as far ahead of second-place Brad Keller as Keller is ahead of 54th-place James Paxton. It’s early in the season to start considering Darvish’s place in history, but full-season walk rates like these haven’t been seen since young Randy Johnson.

Let’s leave aside the walks for a moment, though. Take those out of the picture, and you might struggle to differentiate Darvish’s 2019 from the rest of his spectacular career. Here are Darvish’s groundball/fly ball ratio and hard-hit rate for every year of his career.

Darvish has not only amassed an average-ish hard-hit rate, he’s getting grounders like he never has in his career. Those are hardly the numbers of a pitcher with a 5-handle ERA. What gives? Read the rest of this entry »

The 2018 Atlanta Braves finished their season 90-72, in first place in an NL East that saw just one other team — the Nationals, at 82-80 — finish above .500. That Braves team featured three hitters under the age of 25 with wOBAs above .320, a strong farm system, and middling pitching that could surely be remedied with an arm-heavy offseason haul. After a winter during which the Braves didn’t add those arms, we gave them a 38% pre-season chance to make the playoffs — not an exceptional mark in a competitive division in which we gave three other teams better than that chance, but substantially improved from 2018’s pre-season 3.2% shot. After 2018, expectations were raised for this season’s summer in Atlanta.

One-quarter of the way through that 2019 season, sitting at 21-20 and three games behind the Phillies, it’s not yet clear what kind of season the Braves now intend to have.

The offense, at least, has been there — for the most part. Off-season acquisitions Josh Donaldson and  Brian McCann, along with holdovers Nick Markakis, Freddie Freeman, and Ronald Acuña Jr., are all hitting well (the lowest wOBA among the group is Markakis’s .362). Ozzie Albies and Dansby Swanson are hitting passably, which for Swanson is a major victory and for Albies is about par for the course (his .334 wOBA on the season to date is almost exactly in line with his .331 career mark). Johan Camargo and Ender Inciarte have fallen off a cliff.

The resultant 104 team wRC+ is ninth league-wide and an improvement on last year’s 97 figure (15th). But Atlanta’s top-third ordinal position betrays the fact that the Braves’ overall offensive performance is as close to the 19th-ranked A’s (94) than to the fourth-ranked Mariners (114), and is certainly not the kind of overwhelming force that can cover for poor pitching. And the Braves’ pitching, while not abysmal, is also not good. More damningly for a front office that didn’t add any major arms this offseason, it’s not better than last year’s crew.

As Ben Clemens noted last week, starters league-wide are improving relative to relievers. In Atlanta, where the Braves’ starting depth chart ran at least seven men long to start the season before being shortened by injury, and where Sean Newcomb has recently come into a relief role after a disastrous turn as a starter, the pattern holds. Last year, Braves starters posted a 3.99 ERA and Atlanta relievers a 3.99. This year, both outfits are worse — by a fair margin — but the relief crew’s regression has been particularly noticeable: their 4.87 FIP is the seventh-worst in the game, and a third of a run worse than the starters’ 4.41 mark to date (18th).

If you’re willing to be charitable to a front office (and, presumably, ownership group) that made “financial flexibility” the guiding star of their offseason, you might say that the Braves’ decision not to sign Craig Kimbrel (or any other major relief arms) this winter was a savvy move in a world where all that good young pitching the team spent a half-decade stockpiling was on the cusp of reaching Cobb County. Some of it has worked out. Mike Soroka and Max Fried have been excellent, and Newcomb and (to a much lesser extent) Touki Toussaint have been effective relievers once put into that role. There were certainly enough good pitchers on the Braves’ roster this offseason to squint and see a quality staff emerging from it.

But that hasn’t really happened. Despite Luke Jackson’s emergence as a strong option in the ninth, and Toussaint and Newcomb’s mostly effective efforts to shore up the innings leading into it, the rest of the bullpen’s performance has ranged from acceptable (Jacob Webb’s 3.54 FIP) to ghastly (Shane Carle’s 9.85). And it’s not just outliers bringing the overall numbers down: Chad Sobotka, who has a 6.52 FIP, is among the team’s leaders in relief innings pitched. Josh Tomlin, who has a 4.56 FIP and hasn’t been effective since 2017, leads the team in that category.

The rotation, meanwhile, despite the best efforts of Soroka and Fried, has seen Kevin Gausman, Julio Teheran, and especially Mike Foltynewicz struggle with bouts of inconsistency or injury and consequent ineffectiveness. Foltynewicz’s case is particularly worrying (a 6.88 FIP over three starts, in which he’s allowed 15 runs), both because it stands in contrast to strong performances earlier in his career and because it comes along with a nearly 2 mph drop in fastball velocity, and equivalent (though mostly smaller) velocity drops on pitches across the board. That drop has sapped his ability to strike hitters out, even as it does not appear to have materially affected his walk rate:

It’s not a pretty chart, and exposes the degree to which Foltynewicz’s recent success was built on top of his top-10 fastball velocity. Without that velocity, which began to slump in early August last season and has plummeted in the early going this year after an elbow injury limited him to just a few bullpen sessions and a substantially limited spring training, Foltynewicz simply can’t generate the separation between his fastball and his off-speed pitches that he needs to be successful. So far in 2019, his stuff just isn’t powerful enough to fool anybody. Gausman, too, was brought along slowly during spring training due to a shoulder injury, and Gausman, too, has been slowed by injury this season, leading to similar (if somewhat less dramatic) poor results.

So if a wait-and-see-what we have approach to pitching might have been justifiable coming into spring training — and even that is debatable — it’s no longer nearly as justifiable today. Injuries have killed the depth that underlaid the Braves’ inaction. What the Braves have now, in reality rather than in expectation, is a solid if not overwhelmingly consistent offense, inconsistent starting and relief pitching around a few bright spots, and only a three-game deficit in the division despite starting the first 41 games of the season just barely over .500. They also have that prized payroll flexibility so carefully hoarded in the offseason. If this isn’t the time to go out and buy pitching, it’s not really clear to me when is. Craig Kimbrel is still available. So is Dallas Keuchel, though he may admittedly carry a higher price than would be sensible for the Braves to pay.

For now, the Braves seem content to tinker around the edges of their roster and try to see if anything shakes loose. Last Friday, staring down the barrel of a four-game losing streak after a 10-inning walk-off loss in Arizona dropped Atlanta to 18-20 on the season, Snitker changed things up, moving Acuña Jr. from the cleanup spot to leadoff, Donaldson from second into the vacated fourth slot, and the struggling Swanson from purgatory somewhere near the bottom of the lineup into the two-hole. Acuña Jr. hit a 462-foot home run, and the Braves haven’t lost since.

That’s a nice story, but the offense isn’t really the problem in Atlanta. Their pitching — particularly in relief — is what’s holding them back, and it’s teetering on the edge just as the Braves enter a stretch in which they’re going to play the Cardinals, Brewers, and Nationals 11 times in 15 games. If the Braves’ pen didn’t play all that well in going 9-5 against the Marlins (who the Braves have played six times so far), the Rockies (five), and the Reds (three), I’m not sure it’ll play out so well against the better teams to come. In short, the first quarter of Atlanta’s season has given no indication that the pitching will work out on its own, even as there are a number of good arms to build around in-house already. Few other teams, at this point in the season, have so little of the story of their 2019 campaign down in ink. The Braves’ front office still has a chance to determine the way their season will go. They should take it.

The Dodgers have an injury-prone lefty who’s been dominating hitters lately, and it’s not Clayton Kershaw. Nor is it Rich Hill — it’s Hyun-Jin Ryu. The 32-year-old South Korea-born southpaw has yet to allow more than two runs in any of his eight starts (one of which, admittedly, was curtailed by a groin strain), and lately, he’s been utterly stifling. On May 1, he threw eight innings of four-hit one-run ball against the Giants. On May 7, he threw a four-hit shutout of the Braves. On Sunday in Los Angeles, he no-hit the Nationals for 7.1 innings before Gerardo Parra — who on Saturday night hit a game-winning grand slam — clubbed a ground-rule double that proved to be the Nationals’ only hit of the day.

Here’s some good company:

Though Ryu wasn’t as efficient as in his previous turn, where his 93-pitch outing gave him the season’s second Maddux, after Kyle Hendricks‘ 81-pitch job on May 3, he had allowed only one baserunner to the point of Parra’s hit, via a fourth-inning walk issued to former teammate Brian Dozier. He had served up just two hard-hit balls, a 99.1 lineout off the bat of Kurt Suzuki in the second inning, and a 95.5 mph fly ball from Anthony Rendon in the fourth, and had been the beneficiary of every no-hit bid’s seemingly obligatory defensive gem. In the sixth inning, Stephen Strasburg appeared to have singled to right field… only to be thrown out at first base by right fielder Cody Bellinger (it’s just after the one-minute mark here):

Alas, the lefty-hitting Parra, who earlier this month drew his release by the Giants and entered the day hitting an anemic .194/.276/.290, sliced a 98.0 mph drive to the warning track in left centerfield, where it bounced over the wall for the Nationals’ first and only hit of the day. That was Ryu’s 105th pitch of the afternoon; he completed the frame having thrown 116 pitches, the highest total of his MLB career.

Completing the no-hitter had seemed like an unlikely proposition; Ryu had finished the seventh inning at 98 pitches. Given the 24 pitches he burned in the fourth (including eight on Adam Eaton’s leadoff groundout), he appeared hellbent on testing the length of manager Dave Roberts‘ leash. Since taking the reins of the Dodgers for the 2016 season, Roberts has been at the forefront of a growing trend of pulling pitchers with no-hitters in progress (forget the openers, we’re talking those of at least five innings). His total of three in that span is tied with the Marlins’ Don Mattingly for the MLB high. Roberts famously gave the hook to Ross Stripling after 7.1 no-hit innings on April 8, 2016, then removed Hill after seven perfect innings on September 10 of that season, and told Walker Buehler to hit the showers on May 4 of last season; three relievers helped the rookie finish the job.

What’s more, Ryu had never thrown more than 114 pitches in a stateside start, and had been above 105 only twice in the past three seasons: 108 pitches against the Padres on August 12, 2017, and 107 pitches in the aforementioned May 1 start. “I’m not sure there’s a pitcher/manager combo alive less likely to push him through 9 just to try for a no hitter,” tweeted MLB.com’s Mike Petriello. Roberts suggested that he would have been more flexible…

…which was easy to say in hindsight, but anyway, enough about the manager. The pitcher struck out nine to go with his one walk and one hit, generating 14 swings and misses, including seven via his changeup and four via his cutter. In doing so, he lowered his ERA to 1.72, second in the NL; he’s tied for third in FIP (2.71), and ranks fifth in WAR (1.5). Most impressive within his stat line is his 54-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 52.1 innings. That’s a 28.6% strikeout rate (eighth in the NL) and a league-low 1.6% walk rate; his 27.0% K-BB% is third.

Combine that stingy walk rate with a .230 BABIP (second in the league, thanks in large part to the Dodgers’ stellar defense thus far) and you’ve got a pitcher who rarely has anybody on base. I haven’t played fantasy baseball in nearly a decade, so I seldom look at stats like WHIP or strand rate for even casual purposes, but dig: his 0.726 WHIP is second in the majors behind only Chris Paddack (0.689), while his 94.6% strand rate is in a virtual tie with Justin Verlander for the highest mark of the post-strike era. Blake Snell (88.0% last year) and Kershaw (87.8% in 2017) own the highest marks among full-season ERA qualifiers, while Pedro Martinez (86.0% in 2000) and Zack Greinke (86.5% in 2015) are tops among those who reached 200 innings.

Putting this in more analytical terms, albeit with the usual sample size caveats, here’s a scatter plot of pitcher performance (wOBA allowed) with the bases empty versus when men are on base:

Ryu is the red dot, Paddack the yellow one (the Padres righty is one of the reasons I had to lower the threshold of batters faced with men on base).

This is actually the second season in a row that Ryu has ranked among the majors’ stingiest pitchers. Last year, in 15 starts, he posted a 1.97 ERA and 3.00 FIP, with a 27.5 % strikeout rate and 4.6% walk rate. He missed 3.5 months due to a left groin strain so severe its description included the cringe-inducing phrase “tore muscle off the bone,” but he did not require surgery. That was just the latest in a string of injuries that has dogged the burly lefty since coming over from Korea, most notably a torn labrum that cost him all of 2015 and the first half of ’16, then elbow woes that culminated in debridement surgery after he made just one start in the latter season. Only in his 2013 rookie season did he make 30 starts or qualify for the ERA title, yet he owns a career 3.11 ERA and 3.36 FIP. Among the 112 pitchers with at least 600 innings in that span, his 82 ERA- ranks 17th, his 85 FIP- 18th, but because of his less-than-perfect attendance, he’s a modest 47th in WAR (11.9).

Ryu doesn’t have exceptional velocity; per Statcast, his four-seamer’s 90.4 mph average velo ranks in the 11th percentile as does his fastball spin. He’s in the middle of the pack as far as exit velocity (87.7 mph) and hard hit rate (38.8%) are concerned too. His 11.7% swinging strike rate is in the 66th percentile, though his 34.5% chase rate is in the 81st percentile. As The Athletic’s Eno Sarris pointed out last week, he’s the rare pitcher who has above-average command of five different pitches according to Stats LLC’s new Command+ metric, along with Marco Gonzales, Merrill Kelly, Mike Leake (who has six such pitches), Max Scherzer, and Noah Syndergaard; for Ryu, that would be his four-seamer, sinker, cutter, changeup, and curve. Obviously, that group includes a couple of impressive names, but it’s nonetheless a mixed bag, and only tells us so much.

The exceptional results Ryu has been getting owe a considerable debt to his changeup and cutter. The former, which he throws 22.0% of the time, averages just 79.1 mph according to Pitch Info, giving him more than 10 mph of separation from the, uh, heater. It falls out of the zone more often than not, batters can’t resist chasing it, and when they make contact, they tend to hit it on the ground. His results are more or less on par with the two young changeup artists I covered last week, Luis Castillo and Chris Paddack; he allows fewer baserunners with the pitch thanks to the low walk rate, but gets hit a little harder:

I’ve included Ryu’s 2018 numbers there to illustrate that the pitch is working even better for him than it did last year, when it worked pretty well. The big differences from then to now are last year’s lower groundball rate and tendency to work further off the plate against righties (and in to lefties):

Petriello has a good look at how the vertical gap between Ryu’s four-seamer and his changeup has widened this year, though that’s mostly due to his working higher with the heater. As for the cutter, it’s a pitch Ryu didn’t introduce into his arsenal until 2017. It’s about three clicks slower than the fastball, averaging 87.3 mph, and it now accounts for 21.2% of his pitches thrown; over that three-year timespan, he’s mothballed his slider and cut way back on the usage of his curve. The pitch didn’t work especially well for him last year:

Look at that jump in swinging strike rate! I don’t see a great deal of year-to-year variation in his spin rate (2029 to 2063 rpm in that span) or movement to account for the jump, but location-wise, he’s not only throwing it in the zone less often (while getting significantly more chases), he’s keeping it out of the middle third:

Obviously, the caveat all over this is that of small sample size; we are talking about a body of work that covers a modest 134.2 innings over the past two seasons. Still, it’s been an impressive run, and if Ryu — who returned to the Dodgers upon completion of his six-year, $36 million deal by accepting a $17.9 million qualifying offer — can stay upright while fleshing out this body of work, he should be in line for some kind of multiyear payday this coming winter, though one with some complexity of structure likely — incentives, a vesting option or a club option. J.A. Happ’s two-year, $34 million deal with a $17 million vesting option for year three comes to mind.

While Ryu’s fragility makes him one more pitcher in a rotation full of less-than-durable ones, his early-season performance has provided a best-case scenario while helping the Dodgers weather the late arrivals of Kershaw and Hill, whose combined total of eight starts matches his own. His rise to the occasion is just one more reason why the Dodgers (27-16) are vying for the league’s best record and remain the favorites for a third straight NL pennant.

Catching is a thankless job, but it’s widely considered to be one of the most important roles on the field. In 2018, there were 721,191 pitches thrown in the major leagues, and there was a catcher on the receiving end of all of them. Of those pitches, umpires got the ball or strike call wrong nearly 5% of the time. Every umpire has quantifiable tendencies, some of which adjust from pitcher to pitcher and some of which remain consistent. Nearly all umpiring careers follow a trajectory similar to that of players, in that they start in the minor leagues and work to be promoted, calling balls and strikes in front of TrackMan arrays, often for years.

As such, the sample of data teams can use to detect those tendencies grows quickly. The more pitches called, the more data teams collect, meaning that by the time umpires reach the upper levels of the minor leagues, their tendencies are a known commodity. And while umpires can and certainly do improve their craft, old habits are tough to kick. In March, building on previous research, FanGraphs released an update to our catcher WAR that includes the value of pitch framing. Which catchers generate more called strikes for their pitchers can be quantified, but the question remains: How can catchers improve their receiving abilities?

To start, it’s probably better to think of it not as pitch “framing,” but as pitch “absorption.” Consider the following. A baseball is about five ounces. That might not seem like much, but try to envision yourself catching an object that is moving in different directions and hitting different locations with the speed of a major league pitch and not only being able to keep still, but guide the ball in a motion that we call “framing” in order to make the pitch seem closer than it is. Of those 721,191 major league pitches thrown in 2018, 604,007 were “competitive” — more than 124 pitches per game, per team, that had a chance to be called a strike. Read the rest of this entry »

12:06

Dan Szymborski: OK, I’m here!

12:06

Dan Szymborski: I’d like to say something out of my control happened, but I tend to start Twitter rants two minutes before I have to be somewhere

12:08

Dan Szymborski: Should be fixed now.

12:08

Dan Szymborski: He’s certainly looked better. There’s still hope.

Read the rest of this entry »

Pitchers learn and develop different pitches, and they do so at varying stages of their lives. It might be a curveball in high school, a cutter in college, or a changeup in A-ball. Sometimes the addition or refinement is a natural progression — graduating from Pitching 101 to advanced course work — and often it’s a matter of necessity. In order to get hitters out as the quality of competition improves, a pitcher needs to optimize his repertoire.

In this installment of the series, we’ll hear from three pitchers — Jalen Beeks, Dallas Braden, and John Means— on how they learned and developed their changeups.

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Jalen Beeks, Tampa Bay Rays

“I had a changeup in high school, but it wasn’t very good. When I got to college, I changed the grip; I moved my pinky finger down. It’s pretty much a circle change. I grip it hard and think about it almost like a fastball. I don’t pronate. No one taught it to me. I just threw it one day and it worked. You have to tinker. You have to figure out what works for you.

“It’s gotten better over the last year. I think that’s mainly from my mechanics having changed a little bit. I use my legs more, and have shortened my arm action. I’m not so tall on the mound now. I’m activating my legs more, by getting into more of a squat position. And like I said, I think fastball. I throw it as hard as I can. My average fastball is around 92 [mph] and my changeup is around 88. Read the rest of this entry »