The Tampa Bay Rays are having a tremendous year so far, better than anyone could have expected. They’re a half game out of first in the perennially difficult AL East, and that might be underselling how good they’ve been this year — their BaseRuns record is the best in baseball. How have they done it? Their pitching staff has been the best in baseball by a huge margin, posting a 3.02 ERA and a 3.34 FIP, both of which are miles better than second place. The hitting has been good, but pitching has the Rays playing like a championship contender.

That pitching staff has been a many-headed monster this year, and Yonny Chirinos has been a key part of it. He’s bounced back and forth between starting and following an opener (headlining?) over 75 innings of work, compiling a 2.88 ERA and 4.05 FIP in his second major league season. He was above average last year as well — a matching 3.51 ERA and FIP over nearly 90 innings. He sports a 21.5% strikeout rate and a sterling 4.9% walk rate. In short, Chirinos looks like a mid-rotation major league starter for the foreseeable future. What’s truly amazing about him, however, is that he’s doing that while being the most predictable pitcher in all of baseball.

If you’re behind in the count against Yonny Chirinos, it’s going to be a long day for you. His splitter, which he only learned in 2017, is lights-out. It’s been the third-most-valuable splitter in baseball this year, behind relievers Hector Neris and Kirby Yates. It generates truly video game numbers: a 45% whiff rate, 2.5 ground balls for every fly ball, and a .155 wOBA on plate appearances that end with a splitter. When Chirinos has the advantage, he’s not shy about going to the split: he throws it 43% of the time, more than twice as often as his overall rate of splitters.

No, if you want to beat Chirinos, you need to avoid the splitter. If you end up in a two-strike count, you’ll probably wave at air before heading back to the bench. Get ahead in the count, however, and things change. Chirinos has an effective fastball, a 94-mph sinker with huge horizontal break that runs in on the hands of righties. Still, it’s a fastball, not a world-destroying offspeed pitch. There’s no question which offering you’d rather face. Read the rest of this entry »

A year ago, Aaron Nola was one of the best pitchers in baseball. His 3.01 FIP was very good, his 2.37 ERA was even better, and his 5.4 WAR was fourth in the National League and helped him to a third-place finish in the Cy Young voting. After four starts this season, Nola pitched like one of the worst pitchers in baseball with a 6.25 FIP, a 7.45 ERA, an ugly 13% walk rate, and a -0.2 WAR that ranked 74th out of 77 qualified pitchers. At that time, Dan Szymborksi diagnosed Nola’s issue with walks and homers and noted the following:

At least in the early going, batters seem to simply be taking a more passive approach to Nola after his breakout 2018 season, and he hasn’t adjusted. And he’s getting away from some of the things that he did successfully in 2018, such as daring to throw curves to lefties when behind in the count (he’s dropped from 39% to 20%). Batters are more patient and Nola’s been more predictable.

Since that time, Nola has essentially returned to form. He had one more bad start where he gave up two homers but encouragingly struck out nine batters against one walk. Since that start, Nola has taken the mound nine times and his FIP has been 3.30, a 76 FIP- in this run-scoring environment and very close to the 73 he’s put up over the last three years. His ERA is a very good 3.48, and though his walk rate is slightly elevated at 10%, his 26% strikeout rate is right in line with last season. In his piece, Szymborski produced a table showing the cause of Nola’s high walk rates. Batters weren’t chasing pitches they used to and they were making contact when they did. Here’s the bulk of that table, with Nola’s work through the time of Dan’s piece on April 18 and since then.

Nola isn’t quite repeating what he did a year ago, but he’s not too far off either. He’s throwing fewer pitches in the strike zone and he’s not getting as many swinging strikes, which is something of an issue, but when hitters swing at pitches outside the zone, they are whiffing like they used to. Getting a lot more first strikes is a good thing for Nola, but even better, he’s actually finishing off batters once he gets that first strike. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Meg’s upcoming vacation and brief break from baseball, Chris Paddack’s demotion to High-A, the latest act of Clayton Kershaw’s career and the perils and possibilities of player aging, whether the home-run rate is too damn high, the state of the standings, what the trade market might look like under the unified trade deadline, and more.

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Audio outro: Bob Dylan, "Going, Going, Gone"

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At the start of the 2019 season, the Padres went against conventional baseball wisdom. Chris Paddack, their highest-rated pitching prospect, and Fernando Tatis Jr., their best prospect, both looked ready for the big leagues. Most teams would have left them down in the minor leagues to start the year. They’d have thrown around “working on their defense” or “learning to be a pitcher, not a thrower,” but the reason would be economics. Leave a prospect down for a few weeks, and there’s an extra year of control in it for you on the other side.

The Padres, though, weren’t in the mood for games. Their two highest-paid players lobbied the owner to have Tatis on the opening day roster. Paddack didn’t need a promotional campaign: he struck out 24 batters in 15.1 innings of spring work. His changeup looked dominant. He was ready, and the Padres saw it: he started the fourth game of the season. Skipping service time games and letting your best players play was a revelation, if an obvious one. Paddack started the season with a 1.93 ERA over nine games, Tatis was the team’s best hitter, and “your best players should play” looked like a new and exciting counter to the service-time doldrums.

On Wednesday, the Padres demoted Chris Paddack to the minors. It almost doesn’t matter which level he’s headed to (High-A Lake Elsinore), because he’s unlikely to throw many innings on the farm. The Padres have been cautious with Paddack’s workload this year, only his second season back from Tommy John surgery, and there’s no reason to put stress on his arm against Cal League batters. Indeed, manager Andy Green was quick to mention workload management when describing why Paddack was being optioned:

“Rest is part of the equation. We’ve talked all year long about understanding that Chris had some limitations when it came from pitching from the first day of the season to the last day of the season. We’re cognizant of that. This is a good time to get some work done and get some rest at the same time.”

Sending Paddack to the minors looks odd at first glance. He has a 3.15 ERA and a 3.71 FIP, and he’s probably the best starter on the Padres. Why send him down? Let’s consider a few possible explanations before jumping to any conclusions.
Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

Editor’s note: Jake has previously written at Lookout Landing, and was a FanGraphs Resident in 2018. He’ll be contributing to FanGraphs a few times a week, and we’re excited to welcome him.

With “elevate and celebrate” now a totally normal part of the current baseball vernacular, it’s easy to assume that any given offensive breakout is being driven by an increase in launch angle and a corresponding surge in power. Carlos Santana isn’t exactly breaking out; he’s already a well-established and productive hitter. But after a down 2018 in Philadelphia, he’s rebounding in a big way back in Cleveland, and the most interesting thing about Santana’s resurgence is how his batted ball profile has changed.

From 2010 to 2017, Santana was a fixture in the middle of the Indians lineup, compiling a 123 wRC+ across more than 4,700 plate appearances. He’s made at least 600 plate appearances in each full season he’s played, showing a remarkable amount of consistency and durability. A strong approach at the plate has led to an excellent strikeout-to-walk ratio throughout his career, forming a solid foundation for his overall offensive contributions. But he’s always struggled with a low BABIP. He’s not the most fleet of foot and his 13.9% career pop-up rate is far too high. That has led to some streaky hitting based on the whims of the batted ball gods.

That flawed batted ball profile really betrayed him in his one year away from Cleveland. In Philadelphia, Santana posted his highest fly ball rate since his rookie year and the second-highest pop-up rate of his career. Opposing teams have often shifted against him, but that rate increased a significant amount last year. As a result, his BABIP floundered to a career-low .231, and he ended up posting the second-lowest wRC+ of his career — just 109.

Traded back to Cleveland this offseason by the Seattle Mariners, Santana has regained his hitting stroke. He’s posting career-highs across his slash line, leading to a 144 wRC+, the ninth-best mark in the American League. Just a glance at his batted ball profile reveals a completely different hitter: Read the rest of this entry »

Scott Kingery has had an eventful career.

A second round pick out of the University of Arizona back in 2015, Kingery breezed through Philadelphia’s minor league system. In 2017, he hit .304/.359/.530 with 26 home runs across 603 plate appearances split between Double-A and Triple-A. The next spring, Eric Longenhagen ranked Kingery as the team’s second-best prospect, calling him “a potential star.”

Kingery made national headlines that March when he signed a six-year, $24 million deal, becoming just the second drafted player to sign a multi-year contract before playing in a big league game. Soon after, Sheryl Ring analyzed each side’s motivation for making the move.

“The Phillies and Kingery both walk away with what they needed,” Ring wrote. “For the Phillies, their best chance to win now and, for Kingery, life-changing money. Deals don’t get any better than that.”

In his first taste of the big leagues, Kingery struggled. He played in 147 games, primarily at shortstop (887 innings), though he also saw action at six different positions and even pitched once. But his bat never came around. He slashed just .226/.267/.338 with eight homers and a 62 wRC+. Among batters with at least 400 plate appearances, Kingery was the fifth-worst hitter in baseball. Solid defense (3.4 runs above average) and baserunning (3.4) kept him on the roster, but Kingery was basically a replacement-level performer.

This season, Phillies fans are seeing a rejuvenated Kingery, and not a moment too soon. With Andrew McCutchen on the shelf with a torn ACL, Odubel Herrera on administrative leave after being charged with domestic violence, and Adam Haseley on the injured list after straining his groin, the Phillies’ outfield depth is perilously thin. A trade for Jay Bruce provided reinforcement, but Philadelphia needed someone else to step up, too. Read the rest of this entry »

12:03

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, and greetings from Wellfleet, Massachusetts, where I’m just beginning my 10-day stay  — working the rest of the week, then on vacation — but contending with some nasty weather that temporarily knocked out our Internet connection this morning. Hopefully it holds out for the next 90 minutes or so; check @jay_jaffe on Twitter in case there’s a sudden gap in the conversation here.

12:08

Jay Jaffe: I don’t really have a good answer for this yet; he’s on my list of players to look into, but something else usually pops up, perhaps because I’m still not clear about what’s going on. He’s barreling the ball less but still averaging above 90 mph in terms of EV. There’s a big gap between his xwOBA (.375) and wOBA (.330) despite slightly better sprint speed, so it may be something of a run of bad luck.

12:10

Jay Jaffe: given how sketchy defensive metrics are in small sample sizes, I am skeptical that working with UZR and DRS in such increments would give you more signal than noise. BABIP, sequencing, and batted ball info (including Statcast now) give us a lot of information to help tease out the gap between a pitcher’s actual and expected results.

Read the rest of this entry »

Joey Gallo is a unique hitter having an outstanding season. Though temporarily sidelined with an oblique injury, he’s slashing .276/.421/.653, with 17 home runs in 214 plate appearances and a 170 wRC+. And when he’s not bopping, he’s usually fanning or walking. The 25-year-old Texas Rangers slugger has the second-highest walk rate, and the second-highest strikeout rate, among qualified major league batters. The antithesis of a singles hitter, Gallo is all about Three True Outcomes.

Gallo sat down for an in-depth discussion of the art and science of hitting earlier this week.

———

David Laurila: Straightforward question to start: What is your hitting approach?

Joey Gallo: “I feel that I have a pretty in-depth thought process at the plate. I always have an approach. I think a lot of people assume I just go up there kind of ‘beer-league-softball,’ and try to crush everything I see. But I have a plan of what I want to do against a certain guy; the pitches I want to look for; who is behind the plate, umpire-wise; who is calling the pitches, catcher-wise; what the environment is; what the situation is. There’s a lot that goes into hitting. It’s not just me trying to put the ball into the seats.”

Laurila: Nuance aside, are you generally hunting fastballs middle, and adjusting from there?

Gallo: “I don’t want to give away exactly what I’m thinking at the plate. Obviously, you’re taught to look fastball and adjust to off-speed, but there are situations where you change that approach and look for different stuff. It changes at-bat to at-bat. Sometimes you’re looking off-speed. Sometimes you’re looking for a certain location. You’re not always just looking fastball, because the guys are so good in this league that you can’t always have exactly the same approach.”

Laurila: Have you made changes this year with either your approach or your mechanics?

Gallo: “I’m trying to stay through the ball a lot more now. That’s something we’ve worked on: I try to stay as short and compact as I can. One thing we talked about when Luis Ortiz was hired [as hitting coach] was that I don’t need to generate any more power. All I have to do is touch the ball; all I have to do is put the barrel to the ball. So we worked on simplifying my swing, throughout the offseason and in spring training. I had too much movement for a big guy. Now I’m just thinking about getting my foot down and putting the barrel to the ball.”

Laurila: Is there any compromise with the shortening up? All hitters have their timing mechanisms. Read the rest of this entry »