Ever since Major League Baseball released the first drip of its bat tracking data this spring, I’ve been keeping an eye on a particular leaderboard. I don’t know if anybody else cares much about it, but I’ve been fascinated by the fast swing leaderboard. I haven’t been tracking it religiously; I’ve just been checking in every couple of weeks. Also, I haven’t been looking at it the way you’re supposed to. I’m only interested the bottom of the list. I suppose that makes it not so much a leaderboard as a trailerboard, but I don’t care. I’m interested in it because there’s an honest-to-goodness horse race going on there.

A fast swing is one where the barrel of the bat is traveling at least 75 mph when it strikes or comes closest to the ball. That number was chosen, per Mike Petriello, “because that’s the line where, on a per-swing basis, a swing goes from negative run value for a hitter to average, on its way to positive.” All things being equal, it’s better to swing hard. On an individual player basis, here’s the correlation between fast-swing rate and wRC+. Roughly speaking, five percentage points of fast-swing rate is worth three extra points of wRC+:

Here’s something that may surprise you: Fast-swing rate (R = .48) has a stronger correlation to wRC+ than average bat speed does (R = .41). I assume that this is the case for the same reason that 90th-percentile exit velocity is a more useful stat than average exit velocity. You’re ignoring a big chunk of less useful information and focusing on the swings that can result in real damage. Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome to another edition of Five Things I Liked (Or Didn’t Like) This Week. I’m going to keep the introduction short and sweet today so I can get back to my once-annual guilty pleasure: spending all day watching the US Open. But while I’m going full Jimmy Butler, plenty of baseball is happening, so I’ve got my eyes on that as well. You couldn’t watch a game this week without seeing something spectacular. We’ve got great baserunning, awful baserunning, and phenomenal catches. We’ve got teams misunderstanding risk and reward, and GMs touching hot stoves over and over again. It’s a great week to watch baseball, because it always is. Shout out to Zach Lowe of ESPN as always for the column idea, and one programming note: Five Things will be off next Friday. Let’s get to the baseball!

1. Anthony Volpe’s Disruptive Speed
Another year, another below-average season with the bat for the Yankees shortstop. That’s turning him into a lightning rod for controversy, because he’s a type of player who often gets overlooked (defense and speed) playing for a team where players often get overrated. The combination of the two leads to some confusing opinions. “He’s a good player who will make fewer All-Star teams than you think because defensive value is consistently underappreciated” isn’t exactly a strong argument if you’re talking to an acquaintance at a sports bar.

One thing that everyone can agree on, though: After he reaches base, Anthony Volpe is a problem. I tuned into Monday’s Nationals-Yankees game to see Dylan Crews in the majors and to watch Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, but I ended up just marveling at Volpe for a lot of the afternoon. He got on base three times (that’s the hard part for him, to be clear) and tilted the entire defense each time. He wasn’t even going on this play, and his vault lead still dragged Ildemaro Vargas out of position:

I’m not quite sure how to assign value for that play. The ball found a hole there, but DJ LeMahieu could just as easily have hit the ball straight to Vargas. I’m not saying that we need an advanced statistical reckoning about the value of a runner bluffing a fielder into motion, but that doesn’t change how cool it is to watch Volpe spook good veteran infielders just by standing around and bouncing.

Some of his baserunning value is of the straightforward, look-at-this-fast-human-being variety. You don’t need to hit the ball very deep to drive him home from third:

Some of the value is effort-based. Volpe’s always thinking about an extra base. Even when he hits a clean single, he’s got eyes on the play. An innocuous outfield bobble? He’ll take the base, thank you very much:

Of course, if you show someone taking a bouncing lead in the first GIF, you have to show them stealing a base in the fourth: Call it Volpe’s Run. That double led to a pitching change, and after two looks at Joe La Sorsa’s delivery, Volpe helped himself to third base:

Not every game is like this, but most of his times on base are. He’s never content to go station to station. His instincts are finely tuned, his speed blazing. I’m rooting for Volpe to improve at the plate, and it’s for selfish reasons: I love to watch great baserunning, and I want to see him get more chances to do it.

2. Whatever the Opposite of That Is

Oh Washington. The Nats are near the top of my watch list right now. Their assortment of young offensive standouts makes for fun games, and now that Crews has debuted, the top of their lineup looks legitimately excellent. You can see the future of the team even before they’re ready to contend, and that’s just cool. They might even be good already – they won the series against the Yankees this week, with Crews hitting his first big league homer in the deciding game. But uh, they’re not quite ready for prime time yet. Take a look at this laser beam double:

Boy, it sure looks fun to pour on the runs when you’re already winning. Wait, I misspoke. Take a look at this long fielder’s choice:

Somehow, Joey Gallo didn’t score on a jog on that one. He slammed on the brakes at third base and realized he couldn’t make it home. Then he got hung out to dry because everyone else in the play kept running like it was a clear double (it was). What a goof! That meant the only question was whether he’d be able to hold the rundown long enough to let everyone advance a base. The answer was a resounding yes – to everyone other than Juan Yepez:

I think his brain just short circuited there. He was standing on third with Gallo completely caught in a rundown. All you have to do to finish the play is stand still. But for whatever reason, he started side-shuffling in retreat toward second, another base currently occupied by a runner (!). While Jazz Chisholm Jr. tagged Gallo out, Yepez was busy hanging José Tena out to dry. Famously, you can’t have two runners on the same base. The rest of the play was academic:

I feel bad hanging Yepez out to dry, because some clearer communication would have made this play a run-scoring double. First, Gallo was overly cautious tagging up on the deep drive to center. Then, he got bamboozled. Watch the base coach hold Yepez, only for Gallo to see the sign and think it was intended for him:

Just a disaster all around. I can’t get enough of the Gameday description: “José Tena singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Aaron Judge. Juan Yepez to 3rd. José Tena lines into a double play, center fielder Aaron Judge to shortstop Anthony Volpe to catcher Austin Wells to first baseman DJ LeMahieu to catcher Austin Wells to third baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. to second baseman Gleyber Torres. Joey Gallo out at home. Juan Yepez to 3rd. José Tena out at 2nd. Two Outs.”

Ah, yes, just your typical 8-6-2-3-2-5-4 double play. The Nationals are a lot of fun to watch – even when it’s at their expense.

3. We Get It, Rays

The whole never-trade-with-Tampa-Bay bit is overdone. The Rays lose plenty of trades. They win their fair share too, of course, but they are high volume operators in a business full of uncertainty. Sometimes, you get Isaac Paredes for almost nothing. Sometimes, you get Jonny DeLuca. When you churn your roster to the extent that they do, you can’t win them all, and that’s fine. But the Cardinals? Yeah, they should definitely not trade with the Rays.

First, in 2018, they sent Tommy Pham to Tampa Bay in exchange for some depth prospects, and Pham racked up 8 WAR in the next year and a half with the Rays. Then, before the 2020 season, the Cardinals swapped Randy Arozarena for Matthew Liberatore; Randy became the face of the postseason, and Libby turned into a long reliever. The most recent deal might not be the most damaging, but it’s an apt capper to a transaction trilogy.

Dylan Carlson was supposed to be the next big thing in St. Louis, but that ship had sailed long before the Cardinals jettisoned him at the deadline this year. His offensive game just broke down out of nowhere over the last two years, and he played himself out of St. Louis even as the team floundered for outfield depth this year. He had a 50 wRC+ in a part-time role when the team decided it was time to move on.

That’s fine, guys need changes of scenery all the time. But trading him to the Rays, of all teams, felt a little on the nose. The reliever they got back, Shawn Armstrong, is a perfectly good bullpen option. He made 11 appearances for the Redbirds and compiled a 2.84 ERA (2.78 FIP), a solid month’s work. But I’m using the past tense because they designated him for assignment earlier this week, hoping another team would pick up the balance of his contract and save them $350,000 or so. They’ve made a similar move with Pham, whom they also acquired at the deadline, since then. In Armstrong’s case, they also did it because he’d pitched two days in a row and they needed another fresh arm on the active roster; it was a messy situation all around.

We have their postseason odds at 1.1% after a desultory August, and they likely aren’t losing much of that value by moving on from Armstrong. It’s the signaling of it all, though: They traded for the guy, got exactly what they wanted from him, and still couldn’t keep him around for two months. Meanwhile, Carlson looks like a reasonable major leaguer again. He hasn’t been a world beater by any means, but he’s hitting the ball hard more frequently in a semi-platoon role that takes advantage of his ability to hit lefties. He already has three homers as a Ray after none all year as a Cardinal.

Carlson had to go, because something wasn’t working in St. Louis. Armstrong was a perfectly reasonable return, and he did exactly what the team hoped for when the Cardinals acquired him. The optics, though! They traded yet another pretty good outfielder who didn’t fit into the puzzle in St. Louis. Tampa Bay has two years to get the most out of him. As is customary, none of the players the Rays sent back to Missouri moved the needle. For appearances’ sake, if nothing else, the Cardinals can’t keep making these trades.

4. Outrageous Robberies

It feels weird that Jackson Chourio, a five-tool superstar with blazing footspeed, doesn’t play center. It seems like a knock on him, almost. Sure, this guy’s a prodigy, but he can’t handle the tough defensive position that you might expect him to play given his talent. Except, that’s not quite right. Why would you play him in center field when you currently have Spider-Man patrolling the grass? I mean…

Blake Perkins robs ANOTHER home run! ? pic.twitter.com/vvEn9GVR7V

— MLB (@MLB) August 28, 2024

Oh my goodness. I don’t even want to hear about catch probability on this one, because the difficulty of this play is the part where he gets over the wall in deep center. This isn’t one of those “robberies” where the fielder grazes the wall with his back and everyone celebrates. Blake Perkins can do those just fine – he has four robberies this year, and they weren’t all this hard – but he can also go the extra mile. He went all the way up and over to get this one:

That’s an 8-foot wall, so he probably got to the ball 9 or so feet in the air. He had to cover a ton of ground before getting there; 101 feet from his initial position, to be precise. He took a great route, which gave him time to decelerate and time the jump, but the ball kept carrying. In the end, he had to parkour up the wall a little bit to get enough height:

What more can I say? You can’t do it any better than that. Perkins reacted like he was shocked by his own play:

So no sweat, Jackson. You’re a pretty good outfielder too; you just can’t climb walls quite so nimbly. There’s no shame in second place when first place looks like that.

5. Getting by With a Little Help

Austin Riley is on the IL right now, and 2024 has been a down year for him. That’s largely an offensive issue, though his defense isn’t quite up to previous years’ standards, either. That said, he can still turn an absolute gem out there. Take a look at this beauty from two weeks ago:

That’s the area where he’s improved the most. His arm is below average for third base, so he compensates by getting his feet planted and putting his entire body into the throw. That ball had to travel forever, and to be fair, it two-hopped Matt Olson, but that’s an accurate ball given where he caught it and how quickly he had to let it go. That’s very nice, but watch Jo Adell at the bag. What is he doing?!? That isn’t how you’re supposed to run out a bang-bang play. If he went straight in, he’d beat the throw comfortably. Instead, he curled his way into an out.

In his mind, I’m sure that ball was a double right out of the box. That’s reasonable! Look at where Riley made the play:

Riley’s plant foot ended up all the way into the grass in foul territory. Not many baseballs get fielded there, and Adell hit that one on a line, so when he started out of the box, he was surely considering his options in regards to second base. He came out of the box looking down the line and taking a direct, rather than rounded, route. But as you can see from the high angle replay, he started to bend his path to cut the bag and head for second, right around the same time that Riley rose and fired:

The closeup of Adell is definitely a bad look:

But take another look at those last two shots and you’ll get a better idea of what happened. Adell probably couldn’t see the ball in the corner cleanly. There was a lot of traffic: baserunners, umpires, Riley himself, the pitcher, and so on. About halfway down the baseline, he looked away from the play to pick up first base coach Bo Porter, exactly what you should do when you can’t find the ball on your own. But Porter just plain missed it. He was pinwheeling Adell toward second, imploring him to arc out for extra speed. He clearly thought the ball was in the outfield and that Adell going wide could give him a shot at an extra base.

I’d put more blame on Porter than on Adell in this situation, but there’s blame to go around for both. I’d give credit to Riley, too, of course. Base coaches and baserunners make mistakes sometimes, and they aren’t always punished by outstanding defensive plays like that. But this is an unforgivable mistake given the game situation.

Adell’s run was far less important than the two in front of him. If there was any question at all about his being safe or not, any question about whether Riley had fielded it, the correct play was to book it to first and completely forget about the double. Reaching first safely is worth more than a run: the runner scoring from third plus the first and third situation that would’ve result from it. Teams have scored 0.52 runs after first and third with two outs this year, and 0.59 runs after second and third with two outs. Meaning, if Adell had taken a straight line path, the Angels would’ve scored a run and had that 0.52 on top of it, so making an out at first base cost them an expected 1.52 runs. Advancing to second would have gained them another 0.07 expected runs, but only if that runner on third scored, which didn’t happen because Adell was out at first. They would’ve needed to successfully advance to second 96 times out of 100 to make the math work there. It’s worse than that, though: Going from a one-run lead to a two-run lead is worth astronomically more than stepping up from two to three. Take that into account, and we’re looking at a play where you’d need to be right 98 times out of 100.

The Angels mistook playing hard for playing smart. The winning baseball play there is to ensure the run. It didn’t end up costing them, but it could have. They never scored again, and the Braves put plenty of traffic on the bases the rest of the way. The funny thing is, I’m sure that Adell will get knocked for not hustling on this play, and I don’t think that’s what went wrong. He and Porter just got greedy aiming for a hustle double when the right choice was to nit it up (play extremely conservatively, for the non-poker-players out there). It’s a strange way to make a mistake – but it’s definitely still a mistake.

Welcome back to Top of the Order, where every Tuesday and Friday I’ll be starting your baseball day with some news, notes, and thoughts about the game we love.

September roster expansion isn’t nearly as supercharged as it was when teams could have up to 40 players in the dugout. Nowadays, clubs are limited to one extra position player and one extra pitcher, so in conjunction with the universal DH and the ghost runner in extra innings, we’ll forever be deprived of crazy box scores like this one.

With rosters more gently inflated than bloated, next month is likely to see more moves than there were back when teams didn’t have to be quite so discerning; those two extra spots are valuable, and teams will surely cycle through guys to fill them. Let’s take a look at which players could make a difference for their club come September. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about ad proliferation on podcasts and make a sheepish plea for listener support, then discuss the reversal of offensive fortunes for first basemen and shortstops and Oneil Cruz’s move to center field before following up (35:33) on the Mariners’ managerial hiring and the Selig Rule, a Rich Hill record (and dueling Hill fun facts), the effect of equidistant fences, Carlos Santana’s milestone ball, single-organization Futures Games, and broadcaster BSing, and then Stat Blasting (1:11:40) about Félix Hernández and high HR:hit ratios by bad hitters, Ernie Clement and high-pitch homers, mid-plate-appearance big-league debuts, and small-sample, leaguewide scoring fluctuations (and also semi-meeting major leaguers Ryan Zeferjahn, Jeff Criswell, and Brady Feigl).

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If you checked the standings on Tuesday night or Wednesday morning, you may have noticed something rather novel: The Royals were tied for first place atop the AL Central, depriving the Guardians of sole possession for the first time since April 13. The moment was fleeting, because on Wednesday afternoon Kansas City lost to Cleveland after taking the first three games of the series. Nonetheless, the team has been the AL’s hottest over the past two months, is currently positioned to end its nine-year postseason drought, and has a very real shot at capturing the division title.

The Royals have been above .500 since April 6, and they’ve had just one calendar month with a losing record (12-15 in June). They were 18-13 in March and April, 17-11 in May, 13-10 in July, and are 15-10 in August. A dreadful 4-12 stretch knocked them 10 games behind the Guardians as of June 25, but they’ve gone an AL-best 32-21 (.604) since, half a game ahead of the Astros (32-22). This team is for real.

After allowing 11 runs to the Phillies in back-to-back games over the weekend — the first of which happened after Kansas City pulled within a game of the Guardians in the standings — the Royals rolled into Cleveland and swept a doubleheader on Monday, overcoming early deficits in both games. Down 2-0 in the opener, MJ Melendez’s three-run homer and Bobby Witt Jr.’s solo shot powered the Royals to a 4-3 win, and after Alec Marsh surrendered three first-inning runs (two unearned) in the nightcap, they chipped away, with Salvador Perez breaking a 4-4 tie with a solo home run in the fifth and then hitting a grand slam in the sixth, keying a 9-4 win. On Tuesday night, after starter Michael Lorenzen exited the game in the second inning due to a left hamstring strain, five relievers held the Guardians to a total of two hits and one run over 7 1/3 innings, and trade deadline acquisition Paul DeJong clubbed his fifth homer in 19 games en route to a 6-1 win. Alas, on Wednesday the Royals carried a 5-2 lead into the seventh, but starter Michael Wacha and the bullpen faltered, yielding four runs in what became a 7-5 defeat. Read the rest of this entry »

Nobody throws curveballs anymore. They’re old hat, as Michael Baumann just got done telling you. They don’t fit modern pitch design. Sliders do all the things that curveballs do, and mostly better. Look at the league changing right in front of our eyes:

There’s nothing particularly odd about this change. Sliders, of both the sweeping and tight variety, get better results. Even as they’ve exploded in popularity, even as more and more pitchers have added mediocre sweepers to broaden their arsenals, the numbers speak for themselves. Sliders have been more valuable than the average pitch this year. Curveballs have been less valuable than the average pitch. Sliders seem easier to teach, too, at least anecdotally. You don’t hear about a lot of pitching factories turning guys into Charlie Morton, but seemingly every child in America learns a sweeper these days. Read the rest of this entry »

Garrett Crochet has been overpowering hitters in his first season as a major league starting pitcher. In 27 outings comprising 128 2/3 innings — the woebegone White Sox have been especially cautious with his workload since the All-Star break — the 25-year-old southpaw has a 34.2% strikeout rate to go with a 3.64 ERA and a 2.83 FIP. Relying heavily on a four-seamer/cutter combination that’s augmented by a sweeper and the occasional changeup, Crochet ranks in the 92nd percentile for fastball velocity at 97.1 mph, and in the 93rd percentile for whiff rate at 32.9%.

Crochet sat down to discuss his repertoire and approach prior to a recent game at Chicago’s Guaranteed Rate Field.

———

David Laurila: Most fans are familiar with you as a pitcher. That said, how would you describe yourself?

Garrett Crochet: “I guess I think of myself as a power pitcher. I pretty much rely on two pitches, although I would like to maybe open the floor a little bit more for [additional] usage of the slider and changeup. Some outings call for that more than others, but to be honest, I haven’t gotten many reps with my changeup. It’s been difficult for me to incorporate that pitch very much in a year where I’m relying pretty much solely on efficiency. It’s been about not wanting to waste pitches. That’s why it came down to me using the fastball and the cutter primarily.” Read the rest of this entry »

One of the great things about sports is they let you witness the very limits of human capabilities. If you watch for long enough, you’ll see those limits get pushed even further. Usually it happens in increments so small and slow as to be all but imperceptible, but every once in a while someone comes along and stretches them right in front of your eyes. Never in his wildest dreams could James Naismith have imagined that a person like Victor Wembanyana was capable of existing, let alone of splashing threes and slashing to the hoop like a guard. If he had, he would have nailed his peach baskets a whole lot higher than 10 feet.

Oneil Cruz was a Lilliputian 6-foot-3 when he signed with the Dodgers as a 16-year-old shortstop in 2015. Despite adding another four inches to his frame, he managed to hang onto that position by his fingernails for nine more years, attempting valiantly to blow the doors off our preconceptions about what a shortstop could look like. He did his level best to make up for every errant throw with a rocket from deep in the hole, every routine grounder that clanked off his glove with a circus catch in the no-man’s land behind third base. Sadly, our preconceptions have outlasted his onslaught. The Pirates have finally decided that they no longer desire the distinction of fielding the tallest regular shortstop in the history of the game.

On Monday – just eight days after general manager Ben Cherington told reporters, “All I can tell you right now is he is our shortstop,” – manager Derek Shelton announced that Cruz would be transitioning to center field. “I think as of right now, we’re looking at him as a center fielder,” Shelton said. “It’s something we’ve been talking about. It’s not something that we took lightly. He’s an unbelievable athlete. We feel it’s probably the best position for him and for the Pirates.” Cherington told reporters that Cruz was disappointed about the move, but handled it professionally. On Tuesday, Cruz walked the same line with the media, saying through an interpreter, “I see it this way: I’m going to be playing in the middle of the diamond still, [but] in the outfield, and all I have to do is just erase it from my mind that I was a shortstop and do my best out there as a center fielder.” Either Cruz is truly broken up about moving off the position he’s played his entire life or he just watched Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind.

It’s not as if the Pirates are clearing room for some young shortstop who’s bucking for a promotion. In fact, when Eric Longenhagen and Travis Ice updated the Pirates’ top prospects list, only one shortstop was above Single-A: the 35th-ranked Tsung-Che Cheng, who’s currently at Double-A with a 35+ future value. The Pirates are choosing to leave a real hole at shortstop going forward, and generally speaking, it’s harder to fill a hole at shortstop than in center.

Aside from six spring training innings in 2021, Cruz had never played center. His official outfield experience consisted of 81 innings in left field, 80 of them in the minors. Cruz spent two days as a designated hitter while he got a crash course on the new position. He was the first player out of the clubhouse on Tuesday, shagging fly balls in center before the game.

Oneil Cruz gets some work out in center field at PNC Park: pic.twitter.com/FW2gEs0EBa

— Danny Demilio (@Demilio22) August 27, 2024

On Wednesday, there he was in center field, and as the saying goes, the ball finds you. Ian Happ laced the first pitch of the game into the left field gap for a double, forcing Cruz to glide to his right and cut it off. In all, the Cubs hit nine balls to center, the second most the Pirates have allowed all season. When Cruz made his first catch, on a towering fly ball off the bat of Cody Bellinger, he jokingly signaled to the dugout that he wanted to keep it as a souvenir.

In a development that will not surprise you at all, Cruz also committed an error, though it’s hard to blame him for this one. With Nico Hoerner on second in the top of the second inning, Pete Crow-Armstrong sent a line drive single into center. Cruz charged and fielded it on a hop, then unleashed a 103.3-mph throw home. The ball came in just a few feet up the third base line and bounced roughly 12 feet in front of the plate, giving catcher Yasmani Grandal a pretty friendly hop. However, Hoerner was running hard all the way and the throw wasn’t quite in time. Grandal made a desperate attempt to catch it and apply a sweeping tag all in one motion, and when he failed, the ball squirted past him, allowing Crow-Armstrong to advance to third.

That was Cruz’s second throw of the game, and it was the second-fastest throw any outfielder has made over the entire 2024 season. It was exactly kind of play that made the idea of Cruz as a center fielder so enticing, and he executed it flawlessly. Of course it ended up as an error. Chalk it up to the morbid humor of the baseball gods.

It makes sense to let Cruz get his feet wet over the last month of the season. In order to make it happen, the Pirates recently placed Michael A. Taylor, an excellent center fielder who is having arguably the best defensive season of his career, on waivers. The plan is to play the versatile Isiah Kiner-Falefa at short once second baseman Nick Gonzales returns from the IL. At TribLive, Tim Benz advanced the hypothesis that the Pirates really plan on moving Cruz to right field, and are simply starting him out at the premier outfield position now in order to cushion the blow. “Then,” he wrote, “when it’s clear that’s not working out after a few bumpy weeks during meaningless September games… down in the wind and sun of Bradenton next spring, they’ll broach the topic of moving him over to right field.”

Cruz has now made 25 errors this season, second most in baseball, and his .939 fielding percentage is the worst among all qualified players. If you’ve watched Cruz play, you’ve seen a whole lot of throwing errors, especially when he’s moving to his left, but you’ve also seen a lot of dropped popups. Rather than getting into position, he has a tendency to drift with the ball, then he’ll misplay it because he ends up fielding it at an odd angle, finds himself on a collision course with the neighbor whose territory he has unknowingly entered, or both.

Watching such plays, it’s hard to come away thinking that Cruz needs to be playing in the outfield. Benz takes that concern a step further, writing:

The issues that are present with Cruz at shortstop will just manifest themselves in different ways in the outfield. Instead of loading up to break the Statcast numbers with a 100 mph throw from shortstop that sails wide of the first baseman, he’ll throw one 100 mph from the outfield that misses a cutoff man.

Instead of running out to left field and banging into [Bryan] Reynolds from the infield dirt, he’ll come screaming in from the outfield on a pop-up and crash into Nick Gonzales behind second base.

Instead of rushing a double-play attempt at second base and having the ball go off his glove, he’ll boot a grounder rolling into the outfield as he is attempting to scoop and throw on the run.

If the Pirates could properly coach Cruz, they’d coach him to be better at his natural position. Now, we are supposed to expect that he is going to be morphed into a capable outfielder at the most difficult spot in the middle of his career?

While the point Benz makes is a reasonable one, it’s worth remembering that at this point in his career, Cruz is still just 25. I do think it’s more likely that he’ll be fine in center, and possibly even great. Quite simply, there’s more margin for error in the outfield. He’ll take some bad routes and make some bad reads, but he’ll be able to make the most of his speed, and as we saw on Wednesday, when he has the chance to come in on the ball and put all his weight into a throw, he’ll no doubt put up the kind of radar gun readings that get the Statcast team all hot and bothered. That said, I’m not as interested about who Cruz will be as an outfielder. I care more about who he was as a shortstop.

This isn’t strictly on topic, but let me tell you a secret: Giancarlo Stanton might lead the league in bat speed and fast swing rate, but no player has taken more swings at or above 85 mph than Cruz. When I looked closely at the bat tracking data, accounting for factors like height, pitch type, and swing length, I came away with the impression that Cruz could swing harder if he wanted to; that having the second-fastest average bat speed in all of baseball was the result of a conscious decision to throttle back his aggression some. My point is that calling Oneil Cruz a gifted athlete is a bit like calling an aircraft carrier a big boat. You’re technically right, but you’re still leaving your listener woefully unprepared for the reality of the situation. To some extent, he needs to be seen to be believed.

Watching the 6-foot-7 Cruz straighten up to his full height and unleash a laser from deep in the hole was a transcendent experience, but it wasn’t the most fun part of watching him man the six. The most fun part was simply sitting there and seeing him creep toward the plate before the pitch, so much bigger – not just taller, but bigger – than all the other enormous professional athletes on the field that it felt like your eyes weren’t focusing correctly, like someone painted a perfect photorealistic painting but forgot how foreshortening is supposed to work.

Even his errors, of which there were many, served at least in part to emphasize his gifts. Regardless of what I wrote about his problems with popups, it requires an absurd amount of speed and confidence to end up far enough into left field to have a chance at this ball in the first place. His long strides make it seem like there’s nothing he can’t reach, because the dimensions of the field were set in place long before anyone had contemplated the possibility of Oneil Cruz playing shortstop.

More than a few of his throwing errors were the result of throwing the ball so hard that the first baseman simply didn’t have enough time to catch the ball. There’s no way to check this, but Cruz was almost certainly the most frequent victim of what MLB.com’s Film Room calls “missed catch errors.” His low throws came so quickly that the first baseman didn’t have time to figure out the right angle for a scoop. Here he is handcuffing Connor Joe on a ball in the dirt.

A better shortstop probably turns this into an easy play by charging in and fielding it on the short hop, but Cruz hangs back for a big, juicy hop because he knows he’s got a bazooka in his back pocket. Once that decision has been made, a good throw gets the runner, but only if you can throw the ball as hard as Cruz can. He only gets dinged for an error because he was able to get enough on the ball to beat the runner to the bag in the first place.

Then there was the time he threw the ball so hard that he knocked Rowdy Tellez’s glove clean off. The throw was undeniably high, but how often do you see a major league first baseman literally get his glove knocked off his hand?

Watching Cruz play shortstop was a gift, and one that was all the more precious because we knew all along that might be snatched away from us. His run was equal parts electrifying, exasperating, and improbable. While it’s not his natural position, Cruz will make much more sense as a center fielder. He’ll still make his share of incredible-for-both-good-reasons-and-bad plays, but he’ll no longer break your brain while he does so. For now, at least, the possibilities of baseball have shrunk.

I was contemplating Astros right-hander Hunter Brown the other day — I imagine this is a topic many of you contemplate regularly as well — and when I looked at his Baseball Savant page, I found myself a little nonplussed:

Brown is one of those pitchers who throws three fastballs; his exciting midseason turnaround owes much to the addition of a sinker. But wow, he’s thrown a lot of fastballs to left-handed hitters, hasn’t he? Read the rest of this entry »