With Jonathan Lucroy Signing, Yasmani Grandal Market Shrinks

From 2012 through 2016, Jonathan Lucroy was one of the best catchers in baseball. His 19 WAR during that time was second only to Buster Posey, and that figure likely underrates Lucroy, as his framing numbers made him even more valuable; Baseball Prospectus’ catcher defensive metrics have him being worth 85.5 framing runs over that span, though his value declined precipitously beginning in 2015. Since leaving the Brewers (and turning 30 years old), Lucroy has not been the same player on offense or defense. In 2017, he put up an 81 wRC+ and had to settle for a one-year, $6.5 million contract with the A’s. Last year, Lucroy got worse at the plate, posting a 70 wRC+, and now he has had to settle for a one-year deal worth $3.35 million with the Angels.

In their deal, the Angels are paying Lucroy like a player who put up 1.1 WAR in 2017 and followed it with 0.6 WAR last season. The projections still hold out a bit more hope that the 4.6 WAR season from 2016, and the very good seasons preceding it, are not a too-distant memory. Below is a the breakdown of Lucroy in his 20s and 30s, and his projection for next season.

Jonathan Lucroy Through the Ages
PA BA OBP SLG wRC+
Lucroy in his 20s 2996 .284 .342 .436 111
Lucroy in his 30s 1244 .261 .327 .381 86
2019 Depth Chart Proj 384 .254 .318 .381 94

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Matthew Boyd on Pitching (“You Have To Watch His Swing”)

Matthew Boyd appeared in a handful of FanGraphs articles in 2018. The Detroit Tigers left-hander was included in a June installment of the Learning and Developing a Pitch series. A few months later, his hockey background was highlighted in an October Sunday Notes column.

Today we’ll hear from Boyd on a more-encompassing subject: how he learned, and approaches, his chosen craft. First, some pertinent biographical information.

A 27-year-old native of the Seattle area, Boyd was drafted by the Cincinnati Reds in 2012, but rather than signing a professional contract, he returned to Oregon State University for his senior year. He was subsequently selected in the sixth round of the 2013 draft by the Toronto Blue Jays, with whom he debuted in 2015. His big-league feet barely wet — he’d made just two appearances — he was then traded to the Tigers in that summer’s trade-deadline deal involving David Price.

Boyd made a career-high 31 starts this past season, logging a 4.39 ERA and a 4.45 FIP. This interview took place in mid-August.

———

Matthew Boyd on pitching: “My dad (Kurt Boyd) was my coach from nine years old to when I went to college. He was also one of my main pitching coaches. He’d pitched in high school, then went into the Navy — he needed the G.I. Bill to pay for college — and served for seven years. He’s been coaching for a long time. He has a program out in Seattle called Mudville Baseball Club.

“He was always telling me how to read swings. I’ve had lots of people — other coaches in my life — telling me that, too. But my dad wanted me to understand what the hitter was trying to do. He never called pitches in high school; I always got to call my own game. There were times I got my teeth kicked in. There are times you learn stuff. Read the rest of this entry »


Elegy for ’18 – Los Angeles Dodgers

Clayton Kershaw wasn’t his peak self. But not-peak Kershaw is still pretty great.
(Photo: Arturo Pardavila III)

Though undoubtedly a successful franchise, World Series victory again eluded the Dodgers in 2018. After finishing as the runner-up, or first loser, depending on how inclined you are to glasses being empty or full, the Dodgers have now gone 30 years without winning the Fall Classic. It’s hard to weep too much at the funeral dirge of a team coming off six consecutive first-place finishes, but it’s been a disappointing run of not being able to close the deal.

The Setup

The Dodgers are an organization that represents, in some ways, the worst fears of the analytical community of 15 years ago. It’s one thing to tell small-market teams to be smarter and not have the Cam Bonifays or Chuck LaMars or Dave Littlefields making decisions. But what would happen when, one day, a very rich team also puts together an extremely progressive, highly competent front office?

That’s not to say the Dodgers were a backwards organization; the team was run by the extremely competent Dan Evans and then by one of Billy Beane’s chief paladins in Paul DePodesta. But what those two did not have was an organizational commitment to put together a bleeding-edge unit with a unified, top-to-bottom purpose like those we see in organizations like today’s Astros or Indians.

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Effectively Wild Episode 1318: The Keeper of the Game

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about New York Met Rymer Liriano and the minor league free agent draft, David Robertson signing with the Phillies, Robertson’s underrated record, and a Sabermetrics Mount Rushmore, then (14:43) talk to Retrosheet founder and president Dave Smith about how he started Retrosheet, the organization’s mission to collect a record of every major-league game ever played, its most valuable and most unlikely play-by-play sources, how games get entered into the database, the unreliability of players’ recollections, Dave’s Vin Scully/Sandy Koufax story, how Retrosheet is continuing to unearth missing games, how it deduces games when complete records aren’t available, whether it will ever complete its task, why baseball stats and history are so fascinating, and more.

Audio intro: Whitney, "Dave’s Song"
Audio interstitial: Gillian Welch, "Everything is Free"
Audio outro: The Who, "Daily Records"

Link to EW minor league draft results
Link to Jeff’s Robertson post
Link to Ben’s Sherri Nichols story
Link to David Neft interview
Link to Retrosheet’s most wanted games
Link to Tewksbury interview
Link to Secret Santa montage

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David Robertson Is the Phillies’ New Right-Handed Lefty Reliever

Baseball finds itself in a difficult position. On the one hand, there’s a clear, increasing emphasis on bullpen usage, as starters are throwing fewer and fewer innings every year. Teams are leaning on their relievers now more than ever, and as a consequence, more relievers are getting more money. The money tends to go where it’s needed. Yet on the other hand, relievers have this nasty volatility habit. They’re tougher to predict from one year to the next one, and many of last offseason’s free-agent contracts for relievers didn’t work out very well. Teams want relievers, and teams will pay for relievers, but it’s not always easy to know which effective relievers are for real. So many end up shooting stars against the night sky.

There are your pop-up relievers, though, and there is David Robertson. It’s true that a player is only consistent until he isn’t. Every career comes with some unknown and unknowable expiration date. Perhaps Robertson is about to enter his shakier years. But over the past several seasons, few relievers have been so steady, so dependable. Few relievers would appear to come with so high a floor. In large part because of that reason, the Phillies have signed Robertson for two years and $23 million. It’s not the three years Robertson was said to be looking for, but as he’s headed into his age-34 season, I think that both sides can call this a win.

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Let’s Check in on Miami’s Suit Against the Marlins and Jeffrey Loria

Early last year, I wrote about the lawsuit Miami had filed against the Marlins and Jeffrey Loria, alleging that Jeffrey Loria had used “fuzzy math” to depress the value of his club and avoid paying a share of the team’s sale proceeds to Miami and Miami-Dade County. (The County is also a party to suit against the Marlins and Loria.) With the new year starting, this seems like a good time to check in on the state of the suit.

When we last looked at this case, the Marlins, under the new ownership group helmed by Bruce Sherman and Derek Jeter, rather dubiously claimed British citizenship as a way of moving the lawsuit to federal court (a process called “removal”) and attempting to force arbitration. Despite the less than stellar optics and even more questionable legal basis for the argument, the team nonetheless went all-in on their position that the team was, at least in part, a foreign citizen. In response, Miami sent Laurence Leavy – the attorney better known as “Marlins Man” for his formerly ubiquitous presence at Marlins games – and radio personality Andy Slater to the British Virgin Islands office where the team’s lawyers argued that one of the companies which owned the team, Aberneu, was ostensibly located. In a revelation that surprised no one, Aberneu, it turned out, had no offices or physical presence there – just a post office box. The Marlins, however, didn’t appreciate Slater’s involvement, and responded by revoking Slater’s press pass.

At oral argument on the issue of the team’s citizenship in July, the county emphasized that the team was, in all meaningful ways, an American company that did business in Florida, and showed the judge the evidence obtained from Slater and Leavy’s investigation. At that hearing, Judge Darrin Gayles indicated that she was skeptical of the team’s claim of British citizenship.

THE COURT: As I understand it, there is no question that the purchaser in this case is a U.S. corporation or is a U.S. entity. Right?

MR. DOYLE [attorney for the Jeter/Sherman group]: That is not correct, Your Honor. The buyer is an LLC that its citizenship is determined by its members under Supreme Court precedent and it has a non-U.S. member. So, therefore, it is the citizen of both the United States and outside the United States, foreign.

THE COURT: All right. So in situations where an LLC has dual citizenship, U.S. and foreign, can you point to me specific cases that say that in that situation it is a foreign country for purposes of the [New York] Convention [governing arbitration agreements]?

MR. DOYLE: Your Honor, we have not found such a case [.]

And later, Judge Gayles asked Doyle why the Marlins hadn’t attempted to raise the arbitration issue previously, before the state court. Doyle responded that “[t]he issue of the citizenship of the buyer was not known to me as counsel for the seller and it was in an investigation afterwards . . . that led us to discover that the buyer was, in fact, a dual citizen, foreign and domestic. So that information was discovered after the state court hearing.” That’s not entirely true, however – in fact, the team had moved to arbitrate the dispute in state court, and the state court judge, Beatrice Butchko, denied the motion on February 22, 2018, very early in the case.

So as you can probably see (and you can read the whole transcript for yourself if you’re interested), the Marlins’ attorneys weren’t really able to do a good job of articulating how a company that is both a citizen of the United States and a citizen of a foreign country somehow only qualifies as a foreign company for purposes of the law, nor were they able to explain adequately why they didn’t raise the arbitration issue before the state court when the case was first filed.

And so it was perhaps unsurprising when the Court denied the Marlins’ request to arbitrate the case in early August and sent it back to state court (a process called “remand”). Judge Gayles wrote that the team “face[s] an uphill battle in establishing the requisite citizenship to confer jurisdiction under the Convention[,]” adding that “[t]he Loria Marlins’ assignment of their rights to the Jeter Marlins likely did not . . . confer a more expansive right to arbitrate under the Convention.” In other words, the Court didn’t at all believe that the Marlins were a British citizen, and sent the case back to state court for the state judge to decide whether the case was arbitrable on the grounds that the state court had already taken the first steps towards doing just that in its February ruling (the one Doyle evidently forgot about).

Now, you might think that the Marlins and Loria, unable to arbitrate after having two courts deny their request, and stuck in a state court that had already indicated displeasure with Loria’s creative accounting techniques, would open lines of communication to resolve the case. After all, to this point, the case doesn’t appear to be going all that well for the team or Loria. But that’s not what happened. Instead, the team and Loria appealed the state court’s denial of their arbitration request even though the case wasn’t over yet. Appealing a non-final order is called an “interlocutory appeal,” and, regardless of what you see on television, it’s actually pretty extraordinary. The general rule in every state – and Florida is no exception – is that you can’t appeal until after a case is over, because appellate courts tend not to like piecemeal appeals; they want to look at everything at once.

In fact, the very first thing the team did once the case was back in state court was to file what’s called a “Notice of Appeal” – the document beginning the appeal under Florida law. The team then asked for a stay of all proceedings for the appellate court to weigh in on the arbitration issue that two courts had already looked at and denied. If at first you don’t succeed, try, try, try, again! At this point, an evidently exasperated Judge Butchko denied the stay outright on October 2, 2018, essentially ordering the team and Loria to stop playing around with demands for arbitration and start litigating the merits of the case.

Things looked very bleak indeed for the team and then, late last year, Florida’s Third District Court of Appeal granted review (essentially accepting the case), and issued an order staying all proceedings – ordering everything to stop – until they’d looked at the case and decided the arbitration issue. That means that the whole case is essentially in limbo until a third court decides the same issue that two courts already have.

Now, as a matter of law, Butchko and Gayles largely got it right. But it’s also possible that the Appellate Court decides that it wants this case out of the judicial system; judicial economy is a virtue appellate courts adore, and it’s one of the primary reasons arbitration is so often upheld. Courts like the idea of cases being decided by someone who isn’t them, because (theoretically) it frees up judicial resources and relieves case backlogs. That being said, appellate courts tend to move pretty slowly, and it could very well be late 2019 or early 2020 before this issue is decided.


Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 1/3/19

12:16
Jay Jaffe: Hey folks, good afternoon, happy new year, and welcome to my first chat of 2019. Sorry for the delay — the payoff of a long game of phone tag came due. Anyway, let’s get started…

12:16
Sirras: Do you have any baseball-related resolutions for the new year?

12:18
Jay Jaffe: 1) More time at the ballpark — figuring out child care coverage of a 2-year-old when both my wife and I are working within the confines of daily baseball coverage is a trick we have yet to master.

2) Spread out my viewing among more teams.

12:18
Travis: Given Larry Walker’s (potential?) surge in balloting so far, and assuming he finishes above 50% – still more likely for him to go in via the Today’s Game committee? Or are we saying there’s a chance?

12:20
Jay Jaffe: We’re really kind of in uncharted territory here.

12:22
Jay Jaffe: we’ve never seen a surge from 20-something to 75%+ within a 2-year span, and we really haven’t seen even anybody recent get in from mid-50s to 75% in one year. I wrote about big jumps in the modern era of voting history (1966 onward) in connection to the candidacies of Bagwell and Raines a few years back (https://www.si.com/mlb/2016/01/05/hall-of-fame-ballot-vote-biggest-jum…) and the closest analogue I can come up with is Luis Aparicio, who went from 36.9% to 84.6% in three years. And that was years 3-6 within a 15-year cycle.

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JAWS and the 2019 Hall of Fame Ballot: One-and-Dones, Part 2

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2019 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

We continue our quick look at the 14 players on this year’s Hall of Fame ballot who are certain to fall below the 5% threshold — with most of them being shut out entirely — but are worth remembering just the same.

Placido Polanco

A valuable player who started for five playoff teams, Polanco didn’t pack much punch with his contact-oriented approach at the plate, but he was quite a glove whiz, rangy and sure-handed, at home at both second base and third. In fact, he was just the second player to win Gold Gloves at multiple positions (after Darin Erstad), and his 136 career fielding runs ranks 31st among all infielders.

Born on October 10, 1975 in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, Polanco came to the U.S. on a student visa, attending Miami Dade Community College. Drafted by the Cardinals in the 19th round in 1994, he began his minor league career as a shortstop, and though he spent all of 1996 and ’97 as a second baseman, played more short than second during his 45-game callup in 1998. He spent most of his five-season tenure in St. Louis as a utilityman, earning an increasing amount of playing time as his offense improved. In 2000, he hit .316/.347/.418 in 350 PA, while in 2001 he upped his playing time to 610 PA while batting .307/.342/.383; he was a combined 23 runs above average at third base (his primary position), second and short, boosting his WAR to 4.5. The Cardinals made the playoffs in both of those seasons.

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Ignoring Bryce Harper’s MVP Season

In 2015, at just 22 years of age, Bryce Harper had one of the greatest offensive seasons of all-time. He hit .330/.460/.649 with 42 homers, and his 197 wRC+ was the 37th-best mark of the past 100 years and the 18th-best since integration, with only Barry Bonds posting a higher number this century. With that season, Harper delivered on whatever hype had been manufactured for him as a teen phenom and No. 1 pick overall, one who made his debut at 19 and had notched two All-Star berths before he turned 21. The best way to show the future potential for achievement is to actually do it in the first place. Harper showed he can be the best player in baseball because for one season, he was the best player in baseball.

In the three seasons since that MVP season, Harper has been more good than great, averaging 3.7 WAR per season. For the sake of a hopefully interesting exercise, let’s pretend we only know about Harper’s last three years. What if we throw out the 2015 season and ignore that Harper was actually so good that he put together All-Star caliber seasons at 19 and 20 years of age? What might that tell us, if anything, about Bryce Harper as well as his future?

To that end, I looked at outfielders who accumulated between 8 WAR and 14 WAR (Harper was at 11.2) and a wRC+ between 120 and 140 (Harper: 132) from the age of 23 through 25 from 1973 to 2008. I then eliminated those players who had below a 2.5 WAR or above a 6.0 WAR at 25 years old. This is the resulting group from age-23 through age-25, along with Harper.

Bryce Harper Age-23-to-Age-25 Comps
Name PA HR AVG OBP SLG wRC+ Off Def WAR
Larry Walker 1600 58 .280 .344 .469 128 51.2 11.2 12.0
Tony Gwynn 1680 12 .329 .380 .415 127 48.4 11.8 11.9
J.D. Drew 1359 58 .287 .386 .505 128 53.4 24.5 11.9
Ruben Sierra 2081 70 .298 .345 .491 129 73.3 -28.9 11.8
Ellis Burks 1702 51 .297 .360 .481 131 60.5 -6.8 11.7
Dave Winfield 1836 53 .275 .351 .436 120 49.5 -1.5 11.3
Ellis Valentine 1530 59 .290 .328 .484 125 41.0 15.7 11.1
Lee Mazzilli 1980 47 .286 .374 .437 130 71.3 -33.6 10.8
Steve Kemp 1847 62 .295 .384 .468 133 70.7 -29.3 10.7
Adam Dunn 1821 113 .246 .379 .532 132 86.4 -42.7 10.2
Lenny Dykstra 1443 26 .284 .350 .428 121 44.6 8.0 10.2
Dave Parker 1408 42 .306 .348 .492 135 56.7 -7.5 10.1
Raul Mondesi 1707 66 .296 .332 .501 121 46.9 1.5 10.1
Jack Clark 1559 65 .275 .358 .485 135 59.8 -27.4 8.8
AVERAGE 1682 56 .289 .359 .473 128 58.1 -7.5 10.9
Bryce Harper 1814 87 .267 .391 .505 132 74.8 -21.8 11.2

What we have above isn’t a perfect match Harper, but in terms of age, position, and overall production, we have a decent set to work with. Perhaps the first question we might have is how those players performed at age-26, the age Harper will be next season.

Harper Age-23-to-Age-25 Comps at Age-26
Name PA HR AVG OBP SLG wRC+ Off Def WAR
Dave Parker 706 21 .338 .397 .531 146 35.4 17.2 7.7
Tony Gwynn 701 14 .329 .381 .467 136 33.2 4.8 6.2
Raul Mondesi 670 30 .310 .360 .541 138 32.5 3.8 5.7
Larry Walker 582 22 .265 .371 .469 120 17.4 8.9 4.7
Dave Winfield 649 24 .308 .367 .499 144 33.0 -14.8 4.3
Jack Clark 659 27 .274 .372 .481 142 28.6 -13.9 3.9
Steve Kemp 447 9 .277 .389 .419 136 18.2 0.6 3.5
Ruben Sierra 656 17 .278 .323 .443 110 8.7 -0.2 3.1
Lenny Dykstra 584 7 .237 .318 .356 96 -1.2 2.0 2.0
J.D. Drew 496 18 .252 .349 .429 108 7.8 -5.6 1.8
Ellis Burks 524 14 .251 .314 .422 98 -4.6 5.6 1.8
Adam Dunn 683 40 .234 .365 .490 115 14.8 -21.7 1.5
Ellis Valentine 261 8 .208 .238 .359 67 -11 0.1 -0.3
Lee Mazzilli 376 6 .228 .324 .358 98 -0.2 -17.1 -0.4
AVERAGE 571 18 .271 .348 .447 118 15.2 -2.2 3.3

More than half of the players had good or better seasons with another third coming in close to average, although Ellis Valentine and Lee Mazzilli came in below replacement-level. On average, the group comes in just a touch below their average performances from age-23 through age-25. As for the aging process, the group stayed roughly the same for three years, remaining pretty close to average for the late-20s and early 30s before dropping a bit more in the mid-30s.

There are a lot of different ways to take this information. One might be wariness of the aging process and forecasting deals 10 years into the future. Several players didn’t even make it to their late-20s as productive players. On the other hand, Harper’s young age means that the decline of the contract never gets too far down when it comes to expected production. Another viewpoint might focus on the individual player names and note that Harper compares pretty well to some Hall of Famers. The table below shows the production of the comps above from age-26 through age-35.

Harper Age-23-to-Age-25 Comps at 26-35
Name PA HR AVG OBP SLG wRC+ Off Def WAR
Larry Walker 5127 277 .331 .416 .613 147 323.1 6.4 48.6
Tony Gwynn 5991 74 .340 .392 .460 133 249.9 -45.8 40.8
Dave Winfield 6301 256 .290 .359 .496 136 263.7 -112.4 37.6
Jack Clark 5092 230 .265 .397 .484 145 260.2 -107.8 33.5
J.D. Drew 4753 179 .274 .383 .481 126 174.2 -1.0 32.9
Dave Parker 5764 201 .300 .351 .491 127 168.4 -79.1 29.0
Lenny Dykstra 3566 54 .288 .387 .421 124 118.4 42.0 28.6
Ellis Burks 4519 214 .294 .371 .531 126 147.7 -39.2 24.4
Raul Mondesi 4571 201 .264 .330 .478 109 61.5 -49.0 16.0
Adam Dunn 5545 304 .231 .355 .476 119 115.6 -203.9 9.1
Steve Kemp 2231 50 .270 .359 .402 115 37.6 -41.9 7.2
Lee Mazzilli 2140 38 .239 .352 .351 103 11.8 -53.9 3.0
Ellis Valentine 945 31 .248 .273 .402 86 -18.0 -10.5 0.2
Ruben Sierra 3586 124 .258 .308 .435 92 -37.5 -109.3 -2.3
AVERAGE 4295 160 .278 .360 .466 121 134 -57.5 22.0

The bare-bones look might examine the average and see a projected contract of close to $200 million. There’s also, based on this group, a little bit better than a one-in-five shot at Hall of Fame-level production with a roughly 50% chance at being worth a $300 million contract over the next 10 years. Opt-outs are going to drop that value some, as a few of the top results lose a bit of their value.

The best way to look at these comps is to think of them as Bryce Harper’s floor. We’ve taken some of the very best attributes of Harper — namely his young debut and his great MVP season — and then eliminated them. Despite this elimination, he still resembles a few Hall of Famers and some Hall of Very Good-types. Here’s what the group above looks like through Age-25 with Harper as a comparison.

Harper Age-23-to-Age-25 Comps Through 25
Name PA HR AVG OBP SLG wRC+ Off Def WAR
Bryce Harper 3957 184 .279 .388 .512 140 199.7 -30.1 30.7
Jack Clark 2818 105 .276 .350 .478 130 93.6 -20.3 17.4
Ellis Valentine 2447 92 .290 .332 .480 123 66.3 13.4 16.6
Ruben Sierra 3856 139 .280 .325 .474 115 66.5 -35.0 16.6
Adam Dunn 2783 158 .248 .383 .518 131 124.5 -48.8 16.5
Ellis Burks 2308 71 .291 .350 .470 123 62.8 -2.9 14.3
Dave Winfield 2534 76 .273 .342 .433 118 59.0 -13.2 13.4
J.D. Drew 1400 63 .291 .388 .519 132 61.7 26.1 13.0
Tony Gwynn 1889 13 .325 .376 .412 125 51.3 11.7 12.9
Steve Kemp 2483 80 .285 .374 .456 126 76.3 -42.6 12.1
Larry Walker 1656 58 .276 .341 .459 125 47.0 12.7 11.9
Lenny Dykstra 1716 27 .279 .348 .413 117 45.4 13.0 11.7
Lee Mazzilli 2691 55 .275 .364 .410 120 61.6 -42.6 11.3
Dave Parker 1552 46 .304 .344 .488 133 58.4 -3.5 11.2
Raul Mondesi 1798 70 .295 .331 .501 121 49.6 -0.3 10.5

There are so few players like Bryce Harper in baseball history that it is tough to find a lot of good comparisons. In the past 100 years, there have only been 16 players within five WAR of Harper and also within 20% of his plate appearances. Of those 15 other players, 11 are in the Hall of Fame. Manny Machado is another player on that list, with the others being Jim Fregosi, Cesar Cedeno, and Vada Pinson. The 14 players averaged 37 WAR from age-26 through age-35, with eight of the 11 players who played since 1947 hitting that average.

There are even fewer comparable players in history who have hit free agency heading into their age-26 season. If we look at the comps from the beginning of the post where we ignore important, relevant facts, Harper is merely worth a $200 million investment. If we look at the last batch of comps or apply his five-win projection forward with aging, he might be worth $400 million to $500 million. There’s going to be considerable downside to the contract Harper requires, and any opt-outs are going to remove some of the best-case scenarios, but there is almost as much upside in Harper as there has been in any free agent we’ve ever seen, Alex Rodriguez excepted, because we don’t have to guess at what Harper is capable of. Combine those abilities with his age, and the team that nabs Harper isn’t just contending with the risk of a potential albatross; they are also adding the possibility of greatly exceeding the value of his contract.


Willians Astudillo Is an MVP Candidate

Just a few weeks ago, something incredible happened. On an otherwise ordinary day in Venezuela, a pitcher named Rick Teasley became the first person to ever strike out Willians Astudillo twice in a game. Teasley is a former Rays draft pick who’s played baseball all over the globe, and Ben Lindbergh and I were delighted to chat with him for the Effectively Wild podcast. He remembered the pitches he threw to Astudillo with great detail. Those are pitches one wouldn’t soon forget.

The Venezuelan winter league regular season is now over. Astudillo wound up fourth in the league in plate appearances, with 261. Against Teasley, that one evening, he struck out two times. Against everybody else, every other evening, he struck out two times. Willians Astudillo has completed another regular season. He finished with four strikeouts. And it only gets better from there.

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