Sunday Notes: The Orioles Newest Pitcher Evokes Emerson, Lake & Palmer

Fans of prog rock are well familiar with Emerson, Lake & Palmer’s “Karn Evil 9.” The song, which is on the seminal 1973 album Brain Salad Surgery, includes the line, “Welcome back my friends, to the show that never ends.” Nearly 30 minutes long, Karn Evil 9 has been described, thematically speaking, as a battle between humans and computers.

Which brings us to the first major league free agent signed by the Orioles new-and-geeky front office regime. On Thursday, Mike Elias, Sig Mejdal and Co. welcomed Nate Karns back to The Show, inking him to a reported $800,000, one-year deal.

Karns has been a good pitcher when healthy. He hasn’t been healthy very often. The righty had labrum surgery back in 2010, and more recently he’s had thoracic outlet surgery and elbow issues. He didn’t pitch at all in 2018, and in 2017 he was limited to just 45-and-a-third innings. In the two years preceding the more recent of those, ahem, evil injuries, he showed plenty of promise. Pitching with Tampa Bay and Seattle, he went 13-7 with a 4.25 ERA and a 4.17 FIP.

My colleague Rain Watt will have more on Karns’s comeback tomorrow, so I’ll keep the rest of this look contained to the 31-year-old’s curveball. It’s his primary secondary, and a pitch he refined while going through a shoulder program after having his labrum repaired. Read the rest of this entry »


Effectively Wild Episode 1333: Season Preview Series: Rockies and Pirates

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about a bunch of proposed rules changes, FanGraphs readers’ responses to them, and the general desirability of change of some sort, then preview the 2019 Colorado Rockies (19:57) with former Rockies outfielder and current AT&T SportsNet Rockies analyst Cory Sullivan, and the 2019 Pittsburgh Pirates (46:20) with the Pittsburgh Post Gazette’s Stephen J. Nesbitt, plus a closing note on J.T. Realmuto.

Audio intro: The Bevis Frond, "Time to Change"
Audio interstitial 1: Louis Armstrong and Bing Crosby, "Rocky Mountain Moon"
Audio interstitial 2: Oasis, "The Importance of Being Idle"
Audio outro: Guster, "Two at a Time"

Link to rules change survey responses
Link to Sam on Marlins trades
Link to SABR Award voting
Link to preorder The MVP Machine

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FanGraphs Audio: Kiley McDaniel Endeavors to Undersell Himself

Episode 853

Prospect analyst and resident bon vivant Kiley McDaniel joins the program to offer his take on the J.T. Realmuto trade, update the listening audience on his home renovations, briefly preview FanGraphs’ upcoming Prospect Week, and hear my review of Netflix’s Ted Bundy documentary.

You can find all of Kiley and Eric Longenhagen’s wonderful prospect coverage by visiting our dedicated prospects page, which can be found here.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @megrowler on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximate 53 min play time.)

Read the rest of this entry »


2019 ZiPS Projections – Milwaukee Brewers

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for more than half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Milwaukee Brewers.

Batters

With the position players, we have the sizzle that moved the Brewers from an adequate team to a very good one, thanks to the additions of last year’s best, high-profile free agent signing in Lorenzo Cain and the best, high-profile trade in Christian Yelich. ZiPS was a believer in both — I peppered my articles last winter with predictions of a Yelich breakout and Cain as the best free agent hitter available after J.D. Martinez — so the two of them having MVP-type seasons hardly should make ZiPS sour on them. And it didn’t! Sure, Cain turns 33 early in the season, but his defense hasn’t declined as of yet. Indeed, he may actually be underrated at this point; he should have made a minimum of four All-Star appearances rather than a measly two.

I feel for Manny Pina, who is essentially getting pushed aside for Yasmani Grandal, and while the Brewers absolutely should prefer Grandal — he’s younger, better, and signed to a ridiculously team-friendly contract — Pina’s been perfectly adequate behind the plate. The depth charts have Kratz backing up Grandal, but I’d suspect that in a time when the catcher position is weak around baseball, Milwaukee will trade Pina, or play him for a bit before leaving him open to a waiver claim later in the spring.

I’m kind of sad that Arcia’s projection for 2019 is so light on WAR. He’s always been a favorite of mine, but if he’s not matching his minor league glove reputation in the majors, he’s not much of a starter unless his bat rebounds in a big way.

Pitchers

ZiPS is once again more bullish on the Brew Crew’s starting pitching than Steamer is this year, but it still doesn’t see any of the Brewers as an obvious ace type. It’s easy for people criticize Steamer based on the current depth charts, but I think people are underestimating the challenges of projecting essentially the entire Brewer rotation. Each pitcher who is likely to contribute has at least something that makes it difficult for any prognosticator to do their job. Let’s take a look.

Jhoulys Chacin beat his FIP by half-a-run thanks to a .250 BABIP. He’s shown no signs of being able to do this repeatedly in the past, but also spent a lot of his career at Coors, which is obviously an extremely difficult environment for a pitcher.

Zach Davies looked like he was becoming a solid No. 2 or 3 guy, but missed significant time with shoulder injury in 2018.

When it comes to Chase Anderson, well, there’s beating your FIP, and there’s beating your FIP, and Anderson did the latter in 2018, besting it by nearly a run-and-a-third. ZiPS buys that there’s some ability here, but just how big that ability is remains up in the air.

Brandon Woodruff was up-and-down all year after struggling early, but will likely to get rotation spot despite only four major league starts in 2018 (he had more in the minors).

Jimmy Nelson missed the entire 2018 season due to shoulder surgery. Corbin Burnes has yet to make a major league start. Freddy Peralta has a stat profile that looks like that of a guy who throws 97 rather than 90-91.

ZiPS was closer when it came to the Brewers last year, but that’s not necessarily predictive; it wouldn’t take a lot for Steamer to win this battle. I’m less certain about the Brewers’ projections, at least on the pitching side, than I am most others this offseason.

Bench and Prospects

ZiPS buys Keston Hiura, and while it doesn’t have him becoming prime Dan Uggla or anything — I’m not sure why I chose Uggla here — the computer thinks that he’ll force his way into a job fairly quickly. I don’t think the Brewers will do with him what the White Sox did with Eloy Jimenez, and I suspect that if they weren’t going to give Hiura every opportunity to clear the field this summer, they’d have tendered Jonathan Schoop a contract.

The projections now have Mauricio Dubon as the equal of Arcia, though a large part of that has to do with Arcia’s forgettable 2018 season. That the projection is damning with faint praise is further evidenced by the fact that ZiPS sees Tyler Saladino as roughly equivalent as well. After Hiura, Dubon, Trey Supak, and Zack Brown, ZiPS sees the quality falling off very quickly, not expecting Corey Ray to ever make enough contact to be an effective major league hitter, or Lucas Ercerg to be better than a reserve.

One pedantic note for 2019: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth chart playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site.

Batters – Counting Stats
Player B Age PO G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Christian Yelich L 27 RF 154 590 102 176 38 5 28 103 73 142 19 4
Lorenzo Cain R 33 CF 132 506 78 145 23 3 11 45 53 92 23 5
Yasmani Grandal B 30 C 128 403 55 96 19 1 23 69 68 122 1 2
Travis Shaw L 29 3B 142 489 71 124 27 1 26 85 62 120 5 1
Mike Moustakas L 30 3B 140 528 68 141 28 1 32 97 41 94 2 1
Jesus Aguilar R 29 1B 153 465 69 120 23 1 28 95 50 133 0 0
Ryan Braun R 35 LF 113 398 59 107 22 2 18 65 36 86 11 4
Manny Pina R 32 C 95 304 37 75 16 1 8 36 21 64 2 0
Eric Thames L 32 1B 112 367 61 84 19 3 23 60 52 138 8 2
Christian Bethancourt R 27 C 114 365 42 86 19 0 15 50 16 89 4 1
Keston Hiura R 22 2B 122 491 57 127 26 6 12 49 31 125 11 10
Ben Gamel L 27 LF 140 479 65 128 27 8 9 53 44 108 10 4
Stephen Vogt L 34 C 116 372 43 93 20 2 15 56 35 77 0 1
Erik Kratz R 39 C 77 241 26 57 10 0 8 28 14 55 2 0
Brad Miller L 29 1B 115 366 44 87 20 4 15 55 45 112 4 2
Cory Spangenberg L 28 3B 137 419 52 103 18 5 13 49 33 140 11 3
Orlando Arcia R 24 SS 153 514 54 127 22 3 10 50 33 118 13 6
Tyrone Taylor R 25 CF 124 453 53 109 18 5 13 53 25 92 10 4
Hernan Perez R 28 2B 141 392 42 100 18 3 11 45 18 85 15 4
Mauricio Dubon R 24 SS 113 446 50 111 21 3 8 43 24 88 19 9
Nate Orf R 29 2B 121 428 53 96 20 3 6 37 42 94 11 3
Tyler Saladino R 29 SS 92 290 33 66 10 3 6 28 24 74 10 3
Troy Stokes R 23 LF 131 490 63 101 21 5 17 57 54 168 16 6
Max McDowell R 25 C 86 288 30 59 11 1 3 21 25 75 5 2
Jake Hager R 26 SS 100 376 38 87 19 3 7 37 23 86 5 3
Tyler Heineman B 28 C 74 244 28 54 12 0 3 19 25 46 2 1
Corey Ray L 24 CF 122 494 59 101 24 5 16 55 47 205 24 8
Jacob Nottingham R 24 C 90 313 36 63 13 2 11 37 25 121 3 2
Tuffy Gosewisch R 35 C 75 242 23 46 12 1 4 21 19 67 0 1
Andres Blanco B 35 2B 103 257 30 59 14 2 6 28 21 51 3 2
Lucas Erceg L 24 3B 123 479 51 111 23 2 11 49 31 114 3 3
Shane Opitz L 27 3B 76 221 22 47 9 2 2 17 17 52 4 2
Richie Shaffer R 28 1B 110 383 48 75 18 1 19 51 42 168 2 1
Jake Gatewood R 23 1B 115 441 52 98 22 2 16 55 32 167 3 2
Weston Wilson R 24 1B 114 424 46 93 18 3 9 42 27 130 5 6
Blake Allemand B 26 2B 107 372 38 84 15 2 6 31 26 92 2 4
Trent Grisham L 22 RF 122 415 52 83 13 4 9 36 64 137 15 5
Luis Aviles R 24 SS 130 471 45 97 17 3 6 36 28 169 21 8
Clint Coulter R 25 RF 115 394 44 81 18 3 13 46 27 138 2 3
Gabriel Noriega R 28 3B 86 241 20 49 6 0 3 16 9 73 1 2

 

Batters – Rate Stats
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Christian Yelich 673 .298 .379 .522 136 .224 .352 7.8 3 5.2 Carl Yastrzemski
Lorenzo Cain 568 .287 .359 .409 104 .123 .333 5.9 10 3.8 Robin Yount
Yasmani Grandal 475 .238 .349 .462 113 .223 .283 5.6 2 3.2 Frankie Hayes
Travis Shaw 560 .254 .340 .472 113 .219 .286 5.9 2 3.2 Eric Chavez
Mike Moustakas 580 .267 .324 .506 116 .239 .271 6.0 0 3.2 Graig Nettles
Jesus Aguilar 526 .258 .333 .492 115 .234 .303 6.0 4 2.4 Matt LeCroy
Ryan Braun 440 .269 .332 .470 110 .201 .303 5.8 0 1.5 Al Simmons
Manny Pina 334 .247 .303 .385 81 .138 .289 4.3 5 1.3 Charlie Berry
Eric Thames 427 .229 .333 .485 114 .256 .296 5.8 -4 1.2 David Dellucci
Christian Bethancourt 386 .236 .267 .411 76 .175 .272 3.9 5 1.1 Rod Barajas
Keston Hiura 534 .259 .315 .409 90 .151 .325 4.5 -2 1.0 Tony Batista
Ben Gamel 530 .267 .331 .413 96 .146 .329 5.1 -2 0.9 David DeJesus
Stephen Vogt 413 .250 .315 .435 97 .185 .279 4.9 -8 0.8 Bill Freehan
Erik Kratz 263 .237 .294 .378 77 .141 .275 4.0 3 0.8 Pat Borders
Brad Miller 416 .238 .320 .437 99 .199 .301 5.0 0 0.8 Mike Maksudian
Cory Spangenberg 461 .246 .306 .406 87 .160 .338 4.6 -4 0.7 Mark Teahen
Orlando Arcia 553 .247 .294 .360 73 .113 .303 3.8 2 0.6 Ronny Cedeno
Tyrone Taylor 486 .241 .285 .389 77 .148 .276 4.0 2 0.6 Wendell Magee
Hernan Perez 415 .255 .286 .401 80 .145 .301 4.3 0 0.6 Frank White
Mauricio Dubon 483 .249 .288 .363 72 .114 .294 3.8 1 0.5 Diory Hernandez
Nate Orf 489 .224 .307 .327 69 .103 .274 3.6 3 0.5 Brian Harris
Tyler Saladino 321 .228 .292 .345 68 .117 .286 3.7 2 0.5 Chris Clapinski
Troy Stokes 557 .206 .295 .373 76 .167 .275 3.8 5 0.4 Ryan Lane
Max McDowell 328 .205 .288 .281 53 .076 .267 2.8 6 0.3 Brian Moon
Jake Hager 408 .231 .278 .354 67 .122 .283 3.4 2 0.2 Ed Brinkman
Tyler Heineman 276 .221 .297 .307 61 .086 .262 3.2 2 0.2 Dennis Anderson
Corey Ray 546 .204 .277 .370 70 .166 .311 3.6 1 0.2 Brad Snyder
Jacob Nottingham 348 .201 .277 .361 68 .160 .287 3.3 -1 0.1 Yohanny Valera
Tuffy Gosewisch 269 .190 .258 .298 47 .107 .246 2.5 4 -0.2 Joe Oliver
Andres Blanco 286 .230 .301 .370 77 .140 .265 3.9 -5 -0.2 Geoff Blum
Lucas Erceg 516 .232 .280 .357 68 .125 .282 3.4 1 -0.2 Jose Valdez
Shane Opitz 243 .213 .270 .299 51 .086 .269 2.8 4 -0.3 Jhonny Carvajal
Richie Shaffer 431 .196 .281 .397 77 .201 .286 3.7 -2 -0.5 Danny Peoples
Jake Gatewood 479 .222 .278 .390 75 .168 .318 3.7 1 -0.5 Rich Murray
Weston Wilson 460 .219 .272 .340 61 .120 .295 3.0 7 -0.8 Marco Pernalete
Blake Allemand 405 .226 .284 .325 62 .099 .285 3.1 -4 -0.9 Lionel Hastings
Trent Grisham 487 .200 .308 .316 67 .116 .275 3.4 -3 -0.9 Roger Bernadina
Luis Aviles 506 .206 .254 .293 45 .087 .307 2.6 3 -0.9 Dave Detienne
Clint Coulter 433 .206 .270 .365 67 .160 .280 3.3 -3 -1.1 Dustan Mohr
Gabriel Noriega 256 .203 .232 .266 32 .062 .279 2.0 0 -1.4 Toby Gardenhire

 

Pitchers – Counting Stats
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Freddy Peralta R 23 10 7 4.01 30 27 132.3 103 59 18 75 178
Zach Davies R 26 10 9 4.26 28 28 145.7 152 69 18 45 109
Corbin Burnes R 24 9 7 3.92 49 19 135.3 127 59 17 49 131
Jhoulys Chacin R 31 11 10 4.33 32 31 166.3 161 80 21 67 134
Gio Gonzalez L 33 10 9 4.38 29 29 158.3 154 77 19 69 139
Josh Hader L 25 5 2 2.95 59 0 73.3 46 24 10 35 125
Jimmy Nelson R 30 8 7 4.30 21 21 121.3 122 58 16 46 107
Brandon Woodruff R 26 6 6 4.21 32 23 117.7 113 55 14 47 112
Chase Anderson R 31 8 8 4.47 28 28 141.0 141 70 26 50 114
Brent Suter L 29 7 6 4.08 25 18 103.7 107 47 14 24 82
Corey Knebel R 27 4 2 2.90 64 0 62.0 44 20 7 28 95
Trey Supak R 23 7 7 4.48 26 24 122.7 125 61 14 57 101
Alex Claudio L 27 4 2 3.33 67 1 75.7 76 28 5 15 49
Junior Guerra R 34 6 6 4.46 26 22 119.0 114 59 18 51 107
Jeremy Jeffress R 31 5 3 3.12 66 0 66.3 57 23 5 26 68
Aaron Wilkerson R 30 6 6 4.63 22 18 101.0 102 52 15 39 90
Jake Thompson R 25 8 8 4.98 39 20 128.3 131 71 20 62 103
Jacob Barnes R 29 2 1 3.65 61 0 61.7 56 25 5 29 61
Xavier Cedeno L 32 2 1 3.55 62 0 45.7 41 18 4 19 45
Dan Jennings L 32 4 3 3.79 65 0 57.0 57 24 4 24 41
Josh Tomlin R 34 5 6 5.03 26 16 96.7 107 54 22 12 71
Michael Brady R 32 3 3 4.70 28 7 67.0 73 35 12 12 53
Deolis Guerra R 30 3 2 4.09 42 2 55.0 53 25 8 17 56
Zack Brown R 24 5 6 5.12 23 21 110.7 118 63 19 48 91
Bobby Wahl R 27 3 3 4.12 42 1 43.7 35 20 6 27 62
Thomas Jankins R 23 8 10 5.18 24 21 123.3 141 71 20 44 81
Jake Petricka R 31 2 2 4.20 52 0 60.0 63 28 6 21 45
Bubba Derby R 25 5 6 5.25 29 16 109.7 120 64 20 51 91
Angel Perdomo L 25 4 4 5.29 24 15 80.0 78 47 11 56 75
Tristan Archer R 28 4 4 4.38 50 1 76.0 78 37 10 25 63
Jon Olczak R 25 6 5 4.22 44 0 53.3 52 25 6 25 50
Matt Albers R 36 3 3 4.35 42 0 41.3 41 20 7 12 39
Adrian Houser R 26 3 4 5.42 27 20 88.0 98 53 16 37 69
Quintin Torres-Costa L 24 4 4 4.31 44 0 54.3 47 26 6 35 63
Taylor Williams R 27 2 2 4.34 60 0 56.0 56 27 7 27 58
Boone Logan L 34 1 1 4.30 36 0 23.0 20 11 3 15 28
Erik Davis R 32 4 5 4.55 45 0 55.3 54 28 7 31 53
Erik Kratz R 39 0 0 6.75 3 0 2.7 3 2 1 1 2
Miguel Sanchez R 25 2 2 4.76 34 0 58.7 55 31 11 30 68
Conor Harber R 25 5 7 5.38 28 15 97.0 101 58 11 74 73
Hernan Perez R 28 0 0 7.36 3 0 3.7 5 3 1 1 2
Brad Kuntz L 27 3 3 4.94 35 2 51.0 51 28 7 29 46
Paolo Espino R 32 5 6 5.48 23 15 88.7 96 54 21 29 79
Cody Ponce R 25 6 8 5.46 26 15 95.7 109 58 18 38 70
Cam Roegner L 26 6 8 5.92 24 21 100.3 117 66 19 49 63
Braden Webb R 24 6 8 5.77 24 22 101.3 105 65 16 78 92
Burch Smith R 29 3 4 5.74 32 7 69.0 72 44 13 40 66
Marcos Diplan R 22 5 8 5.82 25 23 106.7 111 69 14 93 92
Nate Griep R 25 2 2 5.33 53 0 52.3 52 31 5 42 43

 

Pitchers – Rate Stats
Player TBF K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP ERA+ ERA- FIP WAR No. 1 Comp
Freddy Peralta 575 12.11 5.10 1.22 .286 109 91 4.09 2.2 Jason Bere
Zach Davies 630 6.73 2.78 1.11 .297 103 97 4.33 2.1 Early Wynn
Corbin Burnes 581 8.71 3.26 1.13 .293 108 92 4.11 2.1 Bob Moose
Jhoulys Chacin 724 7.25 3.63 1.14 .284 98 102 4.55 2.0 Bill Singer
Gio Gonzalez 692 7.90 3.92 1.08 .293 97 103 4.36 1.8 Bill Hallahan
Josh Hader 301 15.34 4.30 1.23 .281 149 67 3.07 1.6 Mitch Williams
Jimmy Nelson 532 7.94 3.41 1.19 .299 99 101 4.46 1.5 Elmer Riddle
Brandon Woodruff 511 8.57 3.59 1.07 .298 101 99 4.14 1.5 Pat Rapp
Chase Anderson 609 7.28 3.19 1.66 .278 95 105 5.12 1.4 Andy Messersmith
Brent Suter 438 7.12 2.08 1.22 .296 104 96 4.13 1.4 Stubby Overmire
Corey Knebel 258 13.79 4.06 1.02 .296 147 68 3.05 1.3 Jim Kern
Trey Supak 548 7.41 4.18 1.03 .301 95 105 4.55 1.3 Mike Mills
Alex Claudio 315 5.83 1.78 0.59 .292 132 76 3.43 1.2 Sparky Lyle
Junior Guerra 518 8.09 3.86 1.36 .284 95 105 4.70 1.2 Ken Hill
Jeremy Jeffress 280 9.23 3.53 0.68 .291 136 73 3.35 1.2 Greg Minton
Aaron Wilkerson 442 8.02 3.48 1.34 .297 95 106 4.61 1.0 Julian Tavarez
Jake Thompson 575 7.22 4.35 1.40 .290 88 113 5.18 0.7 Joaquin Andujar
Jacob Barnes 268 8.90 4.23 0.73 .298 117 86 3.73 0.6 Don McMahon
Xavier Cedeno 195 8.87 3.74 0.79 .294 124 81 3.63 0.6 Don Hood
Dan Jennings 249 6.47 3.79 0.63 .296 116 86 3.94 0.6 Darold Knowles
Josh Tomlin 405 6.61 1.12 2.05 .286 87 114 5.11 0.5 Hal Brown
Michael Brady 285 7.12 1.61 1.61 .299 93 107 4.61 0.4 Jose Bautista
Deolis Guerra 233 9.16 2.78 1.31 .300 104 96 4.04 0.4 Jay Tessmer
Zack Brown 496 7.40 3.90 1.55 .298 83 120 5.20 0.4 Ed Wojna
Bobby Wahl 193 12.78 5.56 1.24 .302 107 94 4.09 0.3 Ryan Bukvich
Thomas Jankins 552 5.91 3.21 1.46 .303 82 122 5.19 0.3 Nate Cornejo
Jake Petricka 262 6.75 3.15 0.90 .305 105 96 4.15 0.3 Frank Linzy
Bubba Derby 498 7.47 4.19 1.64 .303 84 120 5.42 0.3 Sean White
Angel Perdomo 374 8.44 6.30 1.24 .296 83 120 5.39 0.2 Brian Snyder
Tristan Archer 329 7.46 2.96 1.18 .300 97 103 4.35 0.2 Adrian Devine
Jon Olczak 236 8.44 4.22 1.01 .303 101 99 4.31 0.2 Jerry Reed
Matt Albers 176 8.49 2.61 1.52 .293 101 99 4.48 0.1 Mike Maddux
Adrian Houser 397 7.06 3.78 1.64 .304 81 123 5.38 0.1 Mickey Callaway
Quintin Torres-Costa 245 10.44 5.80 0.99 .297 99 101 4.36 0.1 Grant Jackson
Taylor Williams 248 9.32 4.34 1.13 .316 98 102 4.20 0.1 Blaine Neal
Boone Logan 105 10.96 5.87 1.17 .298 99 101 4.63 0.1 Marshall Bridges
Erik Davis 250 8.62 5.04 1.14 .301 93 107 4.72 0.0 Dennis Higgins
Erik Kratz 12 6.75 3.38 3.38 .250 63 159 7.65 0.0 Boom-Boom Beck
Miguel Sanchez 261 10.43 4.60 1.69 .297 92 108 5.01 -0.1 Nguyen Van Phuoc
Conor Harber 465 6.77 6.87 1.02 .299 79 126 5.59 -0.1 Tim Byron
Hernan Perez 18 4.91 2.45 2.45 .308 58 173 7.24 -0.1 Alan Benes
Brad Kuntz 232 8.12 5.12 1.24 .299 86 116 5.01 -0.1 Philip Barzilla
Paolo Espino 390 8.02 2.94 2.13 .293 78 129 5.60 -0.1 Mark Knudson
Cody Ponce 433 6.59 3.57 1.69 .302 78 128 5.51 -0.1 Tony Peguero
Cam Roegner 465 5.65 4.40 1.70 .299 74 135 6.00 -0.4 Josh Shortslef
Braden Webb 487 8.17 6.93 1.42 .303 74 136 5.90 -0.4 Jason Phillips
Burch Smith 317 8.61 5.22 1.70 .303 74 135 5.56 -0.4 Marty McLeary
Marcos Diplan 523 7.76 7.85 1.18 .306 73 137 5.94 -0.5 Jason Phillips
Nate Griep 250 7.39 7.22 0.86 .299 80 125 5.33 -0.5 Dave Cole

 

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2019. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams, unless I have made a mistake. This is very possible, as a lot of minor-league signings go generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS’ projections are based on the American League having a 4.29 ERA and the National League having a 4.15 ERA.

Players who are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information, and a computer isn’t the tool that should project the injury status of, for example, a pitcher who has had Tommy John surgery.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.


Blue Jays Prospect Samad Taylor Looks To Hit His Stride

Samad Taylor is better than what he showed last season with the Lansing Lugnuts. In 530 plate appearances with Toronto’s Midwest League affiliate, the 20-year-old second baseman slashed an anemic .228/.319/.387. Despite those hide-your-eyes numbers, he is, in the words of Blue Jays farm director Gil Kim, “such an exciting player.”

Taylor’s tools are beyond reproach. Drafted by the Indians out of a Corona, California high school in 2016, he more than held his own in rookie ball as an 18-year-old. He continued to impress in 2017 — this time in the New York-Penn League — and the Blue Jays took notice. Bullish on his potential, Toronto acquired Taylor, along with southpaw Thomas Pannone, at that year’s trade deadline in exchange for Joe Smith.

When I talked to him last August, the youngster admitted to having lost his offensive identity. Rather than staying within himself, he had been trying to turn on balls he should have been taking up the middle and to the opposite field. And not only was he chasing pitches out of the zone, he was failing to square up fastballs in the zone. Worse yet, he “kept doing the same stuff that wasn’t working.” Read the rest of this entry »


Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 2/8/19

9:08

Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:08

Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:08

Jeff Sullivan: I’m sorry about that extra long delay — had a podcast go slightly over

9:08

Bork: Hello, friend!

9:08

Jeff Sullivan: Hello friend

9:08

Bork: In which way will Melnyk drop the ball with Duchene & Stone?

Read the rest of this entry »


Frank Robinson, Superstar Slugger and Trailblazer (1935-2019)

Frank Robinson always went into second like a guy jumping through a skylight with a drawn Luger.”
Jim Murray, Los Angeles Times, May 10, 1974

Frank Robinson may not have had the mythic grace of Willie Mays running down a drive to center field, or the staying power of Hank Aaron as he chased Babe Ruth’s hallowed home run record, but the mark he left on baseball, through the combination of his supreme talent and white-hot intensity, was of similar caliber. Though he never played in the Negro Leagues, as both Mays and Aaron briefly did, he was the spiritual heir to Jackie Robinson in bringing the Negro Leagues’ hard-charging style of play to the majors, and in blazing a trail beyond his playing days. At the tail end of a 21-year major league career that made him a first-ballot Hall of Famer, Robinson became the majors’ first African-American manager, and he spent more than 40 years working in baseball at the managerial and executive level.

Robinson passed away on Thursday at the age of 83 after battling cancer. Since 2015, he had served as a special advisor to the Commissioner and the honorary president of the American League, the final lines on one of the fullest resumés any player has ever assembled. Read the rest of this entry »


Top 34 Prospects: Toronto Blue Jays

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Toronto Blue Jays. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a new feature at the site that offers sortable scouting information for every organization. That can be found here.

Blue Jays Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 19.9 AAA 3B 2019 70
2 Bo Bichette 20.9 AA SS 2020 60
3 Danny Jansen 23.8 MLB C 2019 50
4 Nate Pearson 22.5 A+ RHP 2020 50
5 Jordan Groshans 19.2 R 3B 2022 45+
6 Sean Reid-Foley 23.4 MLB RHP 2019 45
7 Kevin Smith 22.6 A+ SS 2020 45
8 Adam Kloffenstein 18.5 R RHP 2022 45
9 Eric Pardinho 18.1 R RHP 2021 45
10 Trent Thornton 25.4 AAA RHP 2019 45
11 Billy McKinney 24.5 MLB LF 2019 40+
12 Cavan Biggio 23.8 AA 2B 2020 40
13 T.J. Zeuch 23.5 AA RHP 2019 40
14 Hector Perez 22.7 AA RHP 2020 40
15 Leonardo Jimenez 17.7 R SS 2023 40
16 Orelvis Martinez 17.2 R SS 2023 40
17 Rowdy Tellez 23.9 MLB 1B 2019 40
18 Gabriel Moreno 19.0 R C 2023 40
19 Griffin Conine 21.6 A- RF 2020 40
20 Miguel Hiraldo 18.4 R 3B 2022 40
21 Chavez Young 21.6 A CF 2020 40
22 Reese McGuire 23.9 MLB C 2018 40
23 Anthony Alford 24.5 MLB CF 2018 40
24 Yennsy Diaz 22.2 A+ RHP 2020 40
25 Samad Taylor 20.6 A 2B 2022 40
26 Patrick Murphy 23.7 AA RHP 2019 35+
27 Alejandro Kirk 20.3 R C 2022 35+
28 Kevin Vicuna 21.1 A+ SS 2021 35+
29 Elvis Luciano 19.0 R RHP 2019 35+
30 Emanuel Vizcaino 19.5 R RHP 2023 35+
31 Hagen Danner 20.4 R C 2023 35+
32 Otto Lopez 20.4 A- SS 2022 35+
33 Cal Stevenson 22.4 R CF 2021 35+
34 Alejandro Melean 18.3 R RHP 2023 35+
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70 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (TOR)
Age 19.9 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr R / R FV 70
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
65/70 80/80 65/70 40/30 45/45 60/60

The best prospect in baseball, Guerrero hit a superhuman .381/.437/.636 across 95 games (mostly at Double and Triple-A) despite being about six years younger than the other athletes in the Eastern and International Leagues. The ball doesn’t just sound different off of his bat; when he really lays into one, you can feel a thump inside your chest, as if someone set off a firework at home plate. It’s explosive, beautiful, and paradoxically violent considering that Vladimir is so childlike in his shape and demeanor. He plays with a vivacious enthusiasm, totally unashamed of his own at times bizarre mannerisms, as if the way he feels when playing elite pro baseball is how most of us did with a wiffle ball in our hands during adolescence. (Late during Fall League, he was cranky and petulant with umpires.)

But his is not a childlike stature. His listed 6-foot-1, 200 pounds is a farce, and on the few occasions that Guerrero and Peter Alonso (who is listed at 6-foot-3, 245) were standing near one another during Fall League, Vlad was clearly the larger human being. While he reaches an almost shocking top speed on the bases given his size, Guerrero does have lateral mobility issues that impact his range at third base. He is very likely to move to first base or DH at some point in his early 20s, but leaving him at third, even if he’s not very good there, might help motivate him to keep his weight in check for as long as possible, something that could be more important than the quality of his play in the field since Vlad had knee issues during the 2018 season.

Really though, it matters very little where he ends up playing. This is the best hitter in the minors and the stick will play anywhere. For at least two years now people around baseball, including the late Mel Didier, swore that Guerrero would be ready for and competing in the majors before he turned 20. Toronto’s desire to maintain control of his talent for as long as possible scuttled that notion late last summer when they chose not to promote him, and Vlad will turn 20 in March before this season even starts. He should be up early this year, and immediately become one of the game’s most exciting, productive hitters. He is the cornerstone of the Blue Jays franchise, and perhaps a cornerstone of our sport.

60 FV Prospects

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2016 from Lakewood HS (FL) (TOR)
Age 20.9 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 60
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/60 60/60 40/55 45/45 45/50 60/60

There’s some contextual disappointment surrounding Bichette’s 2018 statline because he didn’t recreate his video game numbers from the year before, but he still netted an incredible 61 extra-base hits as a 20-year-old at Double-A. We remain skeptical of his long term viability at shortstop, where he continues to see most of his reps, but his arm is plus and teams are growing increasingly willing to put players with limited lateral quickness at short if it means shoehorning a special offensive talent into the position, and Bichette is one.

Ultimately, it probably doesn’t matter where he ends up playing defense because his bat is likely to profile. He has scintillating bat speed, and Bichette’s hand-eye coordination and bat control are an effective foil for the garage band noisiness of his swing, which hasn’t negatively impacted his ability to make contact in pro ball. Bichette ditches his leg kick with two strikes, something we’re not certain is all that helpful based on visual evidence. Ideally, Bichette will start lifting the ball more often (he has a league-average ground ball rate right now) and turn some of these doubles into homers, but it’s hard to justify making a change when he has been wildly successful so far. Status quo Bo is still a doubles machine who probably stays on the infield, and is a likely All-Star.

50 FV Prospects

Drafted: 16th Round, 2013 from West HS (WI) (TOR)
Age 23.8 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
50/55 55/55 40/45 30/30 45/50 40/40

A 2017 Jansen breakout coincided with good health and a pair of prescription lenses. He walked more than he struck out across three minor league levels, and rose to Triple-A and into our overall top 100. He had a similarly strong 2018, which included a Futures Game invite, a .390 OBP at Triple-A, and then a strong 30-game big league stint in August and September, all reinforcing that Jansen’s 2017 breakout was legitimate. A solid if unspectacular defender, Jansen’s pop times were depressed during his big league cameo, hovering between 2.05 and 2.10, both below average for a catcher. But he’s an average receiver and ball-blocker, and is a perfectly acceptable defensive catcher without a disqualifying shortcoming.

Where Jansen shines is in the batter’s box. His hands work in a tight loop, giving Jansen the capacity to catch velocity and still lift the baseball, and he’s strong enough to muscle out balls to his pull-side, though to this point his approach has yielded more doubles than homers. He is a pull-only plodder and he’ll likely always be a low BABIP guy, and it’s possible major league pitchers will find ways to attack him in ways that limit his power output, but he’s going to make a lot of contact and reach base, which, at catcher, could make him an All-Star.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from Central Florida JC (FL) (TOR)
Age 22.5 Height 6′ 6″ Weight 245 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
70/80 60/65 50/55 45/55 35/45 95-100 / 104

We still know very little about Pearson compared to most 22-year-old pitching prospects. He popped up seemingly out of nowhere as a sophomore at a lesser Florida junior college but quickly entered the first round discussion when JuCo ball kicked off in January of 2017. As the draft approached, Pearson was showing better secondary stuff in games and bumping 100 mph in bullpen sessions for scouts. He forced his way up draft boards even though teams had little history with him, and some were skeptical of the new velocity or concerned it would lead to injury.

Pearson made seven short but dominant appearances in the Northwest League during the summer and was poised to begin 2018 at Hi-A Dunedin (an aggressive assignment), but he suffered an intercostal strain and began the season on the DL. In his final extended spring rehab start, he was sitting 94-96 and touching 98 with the fastball. He finally toed a Florida State League rubber that week and lasted 1.2 innings before a comebacker struck his wrist and forearm and fractured his ulna. The injury ended his regular season after just five outs.

After rest and some rehab during instructs, Pearson went to Arizona for the Fall League. His stuff was electric there, his fastball always sitting 95-99 and cresting 100 mph often. He threw a 104 mph fastball and a 95 mph slider during the Fall Stars game, and he was able to dump his upper-70s curveball in for strikes throughout his six-week tenure, though he threw no changeups. Pearson was also horribly wild at times. It’s fair to conclude that rust was to blame for his occasional wildness but because the pro side of the industry has seen so little of Pearson, it’s impossible to know for sure.

There’s a strong possibility that he just ends up in the bullpen, but if he does and he breathes one-inning fire like he did during Fall Stars, he basically has Aroldis Chapman’s stuff (though perhaps not the same extension or approach angle). Provided he stays healthy, Pearson’s future is bright, albeit unclear. He’s likely to be handled with care for a while in order to keep him healthy and manage his workload after what was essentially a lost 2018, but given the wide variance and top shelf stuff, there is still frontline starter potential.

45+ FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from Magnolia HS (TX) (TOR)
Age 19.2 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/50 60/65 20/55 55/50 45/50 60/60

Groshans immediately stood out to scouts on the showcase circuit, showing a Josh Donaldson starter kit with similar swing mechanics, a plus raw power projection, a plus arm, and a third base defensive fit. He essentially held serve on that first impression and went 12th overall to the Jays out of the same Texas high school as the Jays’ second round pick, Adam Kloffenstein. Groshans isn’t quite the same level athlete as Donaldson, and there are contact concerns with an active swing like that, but there are some bat-to-ball skills and plenty of mistake power he can already tap into, as shown in a loud debut in the GCL. Many of the pro scouts who saw Groshans weren’t fans and saw below average tools in their looks when he fatigued late in the pro season, but the things to watch for here are the plate discipline and contact skills, because the position and power aren’t really up for debate right now.

45 FV Prospects

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2014 from Sandalwood HS (FL) (TOR)
Age 23.4 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/60 55/60 50/50 45/50 45/45 91-96 / 97

Reid-Foley has been a similar pitcher from his junior year of high school all the way to his fifth year of pro ball in 2018. His arm action and delivery are a little stiff, and his command isn’t quite enough to be a traditional starter, but he’s stayed healthy and flashes two plus pitches with knowledge of the right way to sequence them, if not always execute them flawlessly. The Jays will continue to run him out there as a starter — he made 31 starts and threw 163 innings last season across three levels — but most agree this is more of a multi-inning or high-leverage reliever, as opposed to a traditional starter. The pure stuff would fit any role on a staff, but the quality of the strikes (his command) is the issue, rather than the amount of strikes (his control), which was evident from his 5.13 ERA in his major league debut in 2018.

Drafted: 4th Round, 2017 from Maryland (TOR)
Age 22.6 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 188 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/50 55/55 40/50 50/50 40/45 55/55

Smith was noticed early in his career at Maryland for showing early round tools as a defender who can stay in the middle infield with above average raw power and some feel to hit. The feel to hit came into question in his draft year, as his swing got a little too pull/power oriented, helping him slip to the fourth round. The Jays rave about Smith’s makeup and preparation, and how he spearheaded the adjustments to his swing to have a shorter path to the ball and increase his contact ability. He now has a flatter-planed swing, and one scout compared his offense to Jordy Mercer, while another thinks Smith is a 50 hitter with 50 game power. Most scouts think he’s fringy at shortstop despite a plus arm, and would shift him to second base long-term for the best fit, where he’s got a chance to be above average. An 85 to 100 wRC+ with solid average defense at second base is worth 2-something WAR, so while it isn’t sexy, there’s some performance here, real changes to explain it, and a pretty good chance to be a 50 or 55 FV big leaguer.

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2018 from Magnolia HS (TX) (TOR)
Age 18.5 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/60 50/55 40/50 35/50 89-94 / 96

Kloffenstein was the Blue Jays third pick in the 2018 draft from the same high school as Groshans, but it appears the Jays had the 12th and 88th overall picks evaluated much closer in talent than the picks themselves would indicate. Groshans got slightly below-slot bonus (17th highest in the draft) while Kloffenstein was well above-slot at $2.45 million (29th highest bonus). We ranked them 28th (Groshans) and 42nd (Kloffenstein) in our pre-draft rankings. Kloffenstein is a prototypical projection Texas arm, with a lanky frame, loose arm action, occasional mid-90s velo, and an above average breaking ball; some scouts saw parallels to Michael Kopech, projecting Kloffenstein to throw 100 mph in the next couple years. He didn’t pitch much in pro ball or instructs as Toronto was managing his innings and getting him used to the pro schedule. Kloffenstein’s main objectives will be to get more innings, stay healthy, and keep progressing, as he only showed mid-90s velocity and starter feel at times in the spring. Toronto’s bet is a bit speculative, based on projection more than performance.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Brazil (TOR)
Age 18.1 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/55 45/50 50/55 45/50 45/55 90-94 / 96

Pardinho was one of the more celebrated 16-year-old pitchers to sign in recent memory, drawing a $1.4 million bonus in 2017, which was behind only Shohei Ohtani among his pitching peers in the class. Pardinho grew up in Brazil, which has a large Japanese population and he has some Japanese heritage; his windup clearly points to a Japanese influence.

The issue here is that Pardinho is listed at 5-foot-10 and 155 pounds, and isn’t much bigger than that right now, though he has a sturdy build. 18-year-old pitchers need to have big velocity, or projection to add velocity, to be top prospects since they generally start losing velocity in their mid-20s; that innate velocity, or projection for it, offers some margin for error. There are exceptions to this benchmark, like Zack Greinke, cases where a pitcher has been a pitchability type with above average stuff from his teenage days all the way into a big league career, but those instances are very rare. Pardinho will sit 92-95 and hit 96 mph early in outing and settle around 90-93 later. His curveball flashed above average as an amateur and he mixed in a slider that lagged behind, but those two pitches are both average to above now. They’re different pitches but still can run together at times, common for a younger pitcher. Parindho’s changeup is his fourth pitch now and it’s around average, but he separated himself with above average command projection, which helped him post gaudy numbers in his pro debut in the Appalachian League at 17.

Pardinho is undoubtedly advanced and projects as a No. 3 or 4 starter if things go well, but he was essentially pitching like a college senior in a league where a college senior can dominate and then never get to Double-A. Pardinho is a prospect because he’s advanced enough to pitch like a 22-year-old when he’s 17 years old. We’d just like to see either his stuff improve — or hold that velocity for the whole game — or see performance against more advanced hitters before we shoot him up the list like he’s the next Greinke.

Drafted: 5th Round, 2015 from North Carolina (HOU)
Age 25.4 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 55/60 55/60 45/50 40/45 92-95 / 97

Thornton spent 2018 at Triple-A Fresno before he was effectively showcased in the Arizona Fall League. He has bat-missing, big league stuff, sitting 92-95 and touching 96 in multi-inning Fall League appearances, and sitting comfortably in the 95-96 range when he was asked to air it out for a single inning. Thornton also has elite breaking ball spin rates. His 12-6 curveball spins in excess of 3,000 rpm and his firm, upper-80s slider/cutter often approaches that mark, which is rare for a breaking ball that hard. He also has a unique delivery that disorients hitters, during which his arm wraps behind his lower back. His arm action is ugly but, short of a 7-day DL stint this year after he was hit with a comebacker, Thornton hasn’t been hurt as a pro.

His usage has been atypical, however. His starts were often spaced out by seven or eight days in 2018, and it’s unrealistic to expect him to have that kind of recovery time between turns on a big league pitching staff. If asked to throw every fifth day, his stuff may not be as nasty as it was this year. He projects as a No. 4 or 5 starter but may also be deployed in a multi-inning relief role.

40+ FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2013 from Plano West HS (TX) (NYY)
Age 24.5 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/50 55/55 55/55 50/45 45/50 40/40

McKinney’s batted ball profile shifted dramatically after the Yankees acquired him from the Cubs in the Aroldis Chapman deal. Since high school, he had been a feel-for-contact corner guy with batting practice power that didn’t manifest in games, but the Yankees got his ground ball rate down from 42% to 30% and he started to mash before they flipped him to Toronto for JA Happ. He hit for power in a prolonged big league look but struggled badly against breaking stuff, something that may be an issue moving forward. McKinney doesn’t have a whole lot of offensive wiggle room because he’s so limited on defense, but the hit/power combo suggests he is a Seth Smith-like corner platoon bat who’s ready right now.

40 FV Prospects

Drafted: 5th Round, 2016 from Notre Dame (TOR)
Age 23.8 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 205 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/40 55/55 45/50 45/40 40/45 50/50

Biggio opted to attend Notre Dame rather than sign with the Phillies out of high school, and he had two bad years there before turning in a solid junior season. He didn’t hit for power in pro ball until he reached Double-A in 2018, where Biggio exploded for 26 home runs, saw his walk rate climb all the way to 18%, and swiped 20 bags.

Nothing about Biggio’s swing is markedly different than it was in college. He’s tightened the circle made by his ritualistic, pre-swing bat swirl, and his hands load a little bit lower now than they used to, but mostly Biggio just has good feel for low-ball contact despite the upright nature of his swing, and has plus bat speed.

There’s skepticism surrounding Biggio’s ability to play second base, so the Blue Jays began expanding his defensive horizons last year with time at first and third base, as well as both outfield corners, which is where Biggio saw the most action in the Arizona Fall League. The uppercut nature of Biggio’s swing is going to lead to some strikeouts and his aggregate offensive profile looks much less promising in an outfield corner than it would at second base. If he could indeed play all of those positions, he’d be a very interesting Swiss Army knife with power, but realistically he profiles as a second-division regular or platoon outfielder.

13. T.J. Zeuch, RHP
Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Pittsburgh (TOR)
Age 23.5 Height 6′ 7″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 40/45 50/55 45/50 55/60 90-93 / 94

Zeuch doesn’t have dominant stuff but he’s a keen sequencer with a firm grasp on how best to deploy his pitches to efficiently tally outs. He mostly pitches to contact with a low-90s sinker that has very steep downhill plane thanks to Zeuch’s height and fairly upright delivery. It’s helped him generate ground ball rates near 60% as a pro. Both of his breaking balls survive because Zeuch locates them. He’ll get ahead of hitters with his curveball and keep his slider just off the plate away from righties. Offspeed development remains key as Zeuch enters 2019 as a non-roster invitee. He may be a candidate for a true splitter, or modified version of it, rather than a straight changeup if the Jays want to try to turn him into Doug Fister, with whom Zeuch shares several other traits. Barring something unforeseen, like a new grip giving Zeuch a dominant secondary pitch, he projects as a backend innings eater.

14. Hector Perez, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Dominican Republic (HOU)
Age 22.7 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Splitter Command Sits/Tops
60/70 50/60 45/50 40/55 30/40 92-96 / 98

Perez was part of the package Houston sent to Toronto in the unscrupulous Roberto Osuna deal. His stuff was down just a tad last year, with his fastball more often 93-95 than 94-97 based on our reports from the previous year. But Perez still has nasty stuff and managed to strike out 133 hitters in 115 innings, mostly at Double-A. His stiff, long arm action significantly inhibits Perez’s ability to throw strikes and he unanimously projects into a bullpen. But because he has three plus pitches (and we have the fastball projected as a 70 out of the bullpen), he could be a dominant late or multi-inning arm. He’s one of many new faces on Toronto’s 40-man and could debut in 2019.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Panama (TOR)
Age 17.7 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/50 40/45 20/40 55/50 45/55 50/55

Jimenez signed for $825,000 in 2017 out of Panama but is often compared to Venezuelan shortstops (like Vicuna, No. 28 on this list) for his advanced, non-flashy feel for the game. Vicuna is still the best defender in the system but Jimenez isn’t far behind him, with one scout grading his hands as a 70. We’re more bullish on Jimenez than Vicuna because there’s better rhythm, swing mechanics, and strength to his offensive game, so there’s a better chance for viable performance. Jimenez also gets high marks for his intelligence and makeup; he’s already fluent in English as a 17-year-old.

16. Orelvis Martinez, SS
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Dominican Republic (TOR)
Age 17.2 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/45 50/60 20/50 45/40 30/45 50/55

Martinez was one of the most explosive talents in the 2018 July 2nd class, getting the second highest bonus at $3.5 million, behind only 22-year-old Marlins center fielder Victor Victor Mesa. Martinez is currently ranked behind a number of players in his class because we still aren’t sure how his contact skills will project. He has big bat speed and projects for at least 60 raw power, along with sticking somewhere in the infield. We aren’t sure how his body will develop, and thus the raw power and the position where he’ll land are open questions. More importantly, he takes a high-effort, torqued-up cut at the ball, and the Jays like that he has eye-hand contact, but there’s still a ways to go to turn this intriguing ball of clay into a more finished product.

Drafted: 30th Round, 2013 from Elk Grove HS (CA) (TOR)
Age 23.9 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/45 60/60 55/55 40/30 40/45 30/30

Tellez had a successful second tour of Triple-A in 2018, and reached Toronto in September just weeks after his mother, who had been fighting brain cancer for a while, passed away. His first six big league hits were doubles, a record, and then opposing pitchers began to make adjustments, and Tellez cooled, often chasing stuff out of the zone. He’s vulnerable to velocity up and was uncharacteristically tempted by soft stuff beneath the zone. He crushes mistakes and has natural low-ball ability, as well as feel for lacing hard gap liners to left field if fastballs away from him catch too much of the plate. It’s tough to hit enough to profile at 1B/DH, and we think Tellez is more of a platoon or second division regular. He should get an opportunity to be just that if something happens to Kendrys Morales and/or Justin Smoak.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Venezuela (TOR)
Age 19.0 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/50 45/50 30/45 45/40 40/50 55/55

Moreno converted from shortstop to catching right around when he signed out of Venezuela, and while he’s just 5-foot-11 and 165 pounds, he’s taken to the change and scouts think he can stick behind the plate. He’s twitchy and has plus bat speed with good bat control but can get over-aggressive at times and needs to tighten his zone. Moreno’s high-energy approach endears him to scouts and teammates, and there’s a reasonable chance he’s a backup, with some possibility these tools can turn into a starter down the road.

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2018 from Duke (TOR)
Age 21.6 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/45 60/65 30/55 45/40 45/50 60/60

Conine is the son of former Marlins great Jeff Conine and Griffin looked like a sure first round pick in 2018 after a dominating summer on the Cape. Thing haven’t gone so well for him since then. Conine bulked up and got a bit stiffer, had a brutal start to the 2018 season, but closed well, finding a better approach to make more consistent contact. The Jays scooped him up as another legacy prospect in the system, but he was popped for PED’s (ritalinic acid, a stimulant) in November and will serve a 50-game suspension to start 2019. At his best, Conine has 60 or 65-grade raw power from the left side, a plus arm that helps him fit in right field, and good enough contact skills for a 45 or 50-grade bat to allow him to get to his power. He can get too uphill, aggressive, and pull-happy at times, so there’s some concern, beyond the suspension, about how much of his Cape performance will show up in pro ball.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (TOR)
Age 18.4 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/55 45/50 30/50 50/40 40/45 55/55

Dominican Summer League stats are largely meaningless, but every year there is a prospect or two whose statline is so utterly dominant that it provokes immediate re-evaluation. Hiraldo, who was hitting .366/.429/.560 when July began, was one of those DSL hitters in 2018. When prompted about Hiraldo, pro scouts with coverage in the DSL reiterated what was said about him when he was an amateur. He was physically mature for his age, stocky, and strong, far more muscular than most of his DSL peers. He has plus bat speed, average power right now, and tracks pitches well and has some barrel control, so while Hirlado’s physical maturity should cause one to discount his statistical performance, he is a good offensive prospect.

There’s not much room left on his frame for good weight, and he has fairly limited power projection left. Scouts already anticipate a move off of shortstop to either second or third base. Hiraldo’s offensive talent could be sufficient to profile every day at either spot, just probably not as a star and probably not for several years considering the passive developmental track the Jays took with him last year when he probably should have been in the GCL for more than a 10-game August jaunt.

21. Chavez Young, CF
Drafted: 39th Round, 2016 from Faith Baptist HS (FL) (TOR)
Age 21.6 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr S / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/50 50/50 40/45 55/55 45/50 60/60

It seems like every year a hitter or two comes out of nowhere and causes quite a ruckus in Lansing. This year it was Young, who hit .285/.363/.445 with 50 extra-base hits and 44 steals for the Lugnuts. The travel ball circuit is not kind to economically disadvantaged families, and part of the reason Young was under-scouted as an amateur, as he told our own David Laurila, was because his family could not afford to attend heavily scouted showcases.

Another reason he may have slid toward the end of the draft was because he was constantly moving around. He was under the international scouting umbrella while he was young and living in the Bahamas, then spent his early high school years in Florida before relocating to Georgia for his senior season. It’s likely that three separate scouts in each org were responsible for scouting and gauging Young’s signability.

The Blue Jays got a deal done for $200,000 and Young has been a strong early-career performer. Pro scouts see him as a bit of a tweener but think there’s a chance he might be an everyday center fielder if absolutely everything comes together. He’s not a typical center field sprinter (our sources all have either a 50 or 55 on his speed) but he’s instinctive, and fine there for now. If Young does move to a corner, his hit/power combination is on the fringe of profiling. A switch-hitter, Young has power from the right side of the plate but he’s strikeout prone due to a lack of bat control. As a lefty, he has a gap-to-gap approach and good bat control, but not typical over-the-fence thump.

It’s possible that, even with middling offensive ability, Young could be such an excellent corner defender that he plays everyday anyway, and his makeup is universally lauded, so we like his chances of reaching and staying in the majors as some kind of role player.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2013 from Kentwood HS (WA) (PIT)
Age 23.9 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/50 45/45 20/35 30/30 50/60 60/60

The Blue Jays have a terrific young catching tandem in Danny Jansen and McGuire, who we project to play a glove-centric second fiddle to Jansen’s bat for the next half decade. McGuire has been lauded for his defense since high school, and he remains excellent back there, and has a plus arm. He has struggled in the past to lift the ball, and while he showed some movement in that regard last year, it’s unlikely that McGuire hits enough to profile as an everyday catcher.

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2012 from Petal HS (MS) (TOR)
Age 24.5 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/40 60/60 40/45 70/70 50/55 40/40

Alford had a tumultuous and eventful amateur athletic career. He starred as a dual threat high school quarterback in Mississippi, and continued playing football in college even after the Jays, who at the time were able to offer Alford a now defunct two-sport deal structured to incentivize him to eventually commit to baseball, drafted and signed him. His college football career and home life were both tumultuous, as Southern Miss went winless during Alford’s first year under center, and several members of his family had legal troubles. Alford eventually transferred to Ole Miss, where he was asked to play safety, but that didn’t last long and he soon committed full time to baseball.

He’s dealt with constant injury as a pro and has issues with quality of contact when healthy. Though he’s a remarkable athlete with huge raw power and speed, we’re bearish on Alford’s ability to hit breaking stuff and do enough damage to play everyday. He projects as a bench outfielder. Because Alford has only been totally devoted to baseball since 2015, there’s a chance some of what currently impairs his on-field production can be remedied, but he has to stay on the field to develop that stuff.

24. Yennsy Diaz, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Dominican Republic (TOR)
Age 22.2 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/60 50/55 40/45 40/45 92-95 / 97

A boiler plate middle relief prospect, Diaz was added to the 40-man this offseason and may debut in 2019. Though he has been developed as a starter to this point, command and repertoire depth limitations have scouts universally projecting Diaz to the bullpen. He has a slightly cross-bodied delivery, and he muscles up and slings in mid-90s fastballs and tilting, two-planed breakers. His changeup is firm, but continued reps in a rotation should help improve his feel for it and better prepare him to deal with left-handed hitters in the big leagues.

25. Samad Taylor, 2B
Drafted: 10th Round, 2016 from Corona HS (CA) (CLE)
Age 20.6 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/50 40/45 20/40 60/60 40/55 45/45

Taylor signed with Cleveland for $125,000 in the 10th round in 2016 out of a southern California high school. The report then was an explosive, quick second baseman with some tools who could use some refinement. That’s still mostly the report, but Taylor’s 2018 full season debut was excellent, hitting above league average in the Midwest League as a 19-year-old most of the year, despite a .270 BABIP. Some players naturally have a lower BABIP, but Taylor is a player who should have a higher-than-normal BABIP given his plus speed (44 stolen bases in 2018), solid plate discipline (11% BB to 19% K), and surprising game power for his size and age (nine home runs and 32 doubles).

Taylor can still make a boneheaded play defensively, use improper footwork at the keystone, or try to do too much at the plate, but the tools are here for a low-end everyday second baseman if things continue progressing.

35+ FV Prospects

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2013 from Hamilton HS (AZ) (TOR)
Age 23.7 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Murphy has persevered through multiple injuries and surgeries (Tommy John and Thoracic Outlet Syndrome, just to name two) and finally had a full, healthy season in 2018, and was added to Toronto’s 40-man in November. His fastball is very hard and Murphy throws a lot of strikes, typically in the upper half of the zone. At times his heater has natural cut, he’ll flash an occasional plus curveball, and his changeup got much better throughout 2018. His injury history and violent, somewhat awkward overhand delivery are each of concern to teams, which generally have him projected in a bullpen role.

There’s sufficient strike-throwing here for Murphy to continue developing as a starter, and he could pitch at the back of a rotation, especially if his changeup keeps improving.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Mexico (TOR)
Age 20.3 Height 5′ 9″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

The first thing anyone talks about when Kirk’s name comes up is his weight. He’s built exactly like former A’s catcher Jeremy Brown, and one source body comp’d him to Chris Farley noting that, like Farley, Kirk is deceptively agile for his size.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Venezuela (TOR)
Age 21.1 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 140 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Vicuna (pronounced like Acuña) signed for $350,000 in 2014 out of Venezuela and fits the archetype of the Venezuelan shortstop, with excellent feel for the game and instincts to get the most out of his tools. He was considered frail-looking at signing and has put on some strength since then, but still needs to add more to have a chance to make an impact offensively.

Vicuna is a plus runner who has above average hands, range, and arm strength, so even just hitting for consistent contact with enough power to be respected would be enough to make him a solid big leaguer. The Jays are encouraged by his 60 PA in the Venezuelan Winter League, where Vicuna had eight walks to 13 strikeouts, but also had just one extra base hit. He’s the best defensive shortstop in the system and, depending on which scout you ask, his makeup grades anywhere from 60 to 80, so we think he’s worth inclusion on the list.

29. Elvis Luciano, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (ARI)
Age 19.0 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 184 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Luciano was acquired by Kansas City in the trade that sent Jon Jay to Arizona, then selected by Toronto in the Rule 5 draft. He was the youngest player picked in the Rule 5 by a significant margin and if he makes the Jays’ Opening Day roster, he’ll be the first player born this century to play in the big leagues.

Though he’ll touch 96, Luciano’s fastball sits in the 90-94 range, and he has scattershot command of it, especially late in starts. His frame is less projectable than the typical teenager’s, so there may not be much more velo coming as he ages, but he has plenty of present arm strength and an above-average breaking ball, so there’s a chance he makes the Jays’ roster in a relief role. He has No. 4 starter upside if his below-average changeup and command progress, but Rule 5 selections who stick often put developmental priorities on the back burner and instead lean on what they’re already good at in order to succeed right now.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (TOR)
Age 19.5 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Vizcainno is a fairly standard teenage projection arm, perhaps slightly raw for his age from a strike-throwing perspective, though that’s understandable given the mantis-like length of his limbs. He’s an above-average athlete and there’s a good chance his release consistency becomes refined with more experience, though he may always have limited pinpoint command because his trebuchet-like overhand arm action makes it hard to work east and west. That’s not to say it’s a bad delivery. Vizcaino’s arm action is very efficient, and his vertical slot gives his promising curveball an awful lot of depth. It’s easy to envision Vizcaino working up and down with his fastball and curveball in concert with one another in a relief role, even if he never develops average control.

There are lots of promising components here, they’re just a little less polished than is ideal for a prospect who’ll be 20 this year.

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2017 from Huntington Beach HS (CA) (TOR)
Age 20.4 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Danner burst onto the scouting scene after his sophomore year of high school, showing low-90s stuff and a three pitch mix with the look of a future high pick as a pitcher. He maintained his above average stuff throughout most of his prep career, but the more scouts saw him behind the plate, the more they liked him long-term as a catching prospect.

Eventually, the Jays took Danner in the second round of the 2017 draft as a catcher, which marks the first time Danner hasn’t been splitting his focus on the diamond. He’s only played 66 pro games due to some minor injuries, so we haven’t seen as much as we’d like with him being relatively new to this position. He has above average to plus arm strength and raw power projection, and we think he can stick behind the plate, but the hit tool may take a little time, which is the main concern going forward.

32. Otto Lopez, SS
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (TOR)
Age 20.4 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

A dual Dominican/Canadian citizen, Lopez was born in the Dominican Republic but his family moved to Montreal when he was 12, and he plays on Team Canada during international competition. That’s not to be confused with the Vancouver Canadians, the Blue Jays’ Northwest League affiliate for which Lopez also played last year, and played well. He walked more than he struck out, led the team in OBP, and saw action at every defensive position but catcher and first base as the club’s youngest member. A plus runner and above-average athlete, that kind of super utility role is Lopez’s realistic future projection. He has some feel for contact but will probably max out with 40 raw power, if that, so he’s unlikely to make strong enough contact to hit for as high an average as his pure bat-to-ball skills might indicate. Even if typical big league physicality never materializes, Lopez should be a versatile bench piece.

Drafted: 10th Round, 2018 from Arizona (TOR)
Age 22.4 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr L / L FV 35+

Stevenson was a 10th round senior sign out of Arizona, an afterthought until he went to the Appy League and hit a raucous .359/.494/.518 during the last two months of the season. Rookie-ball pitching is worse than what Stevenson faced in the Pac-12 and that performance should be considered with that fact in mind, but those numbers are exceptional and four corners scouts thought Stevenson, whose 2018 numbers at Arizona were worse than the previous year, was hurt during the spring. It’s possible pre-draft reports on Stevenson — plus runner, above-average bat, no clear defensive position, great makeup — were impacted by injury, and that Stevenson’s true talent is closer to how he performed during the summer, but the physical tools are indicative of a bench outfielder. Lansing is probably not going to clarify the situation next year because it’s so hitter-friendly, and we may have to wait until Stevenson gets a taste of Hi-A to know if the Jays have really found something.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Venezuela (TOR)
Age 18.3 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

The Blue Jays felt Melean was advanced enough for the GCL at age 17, and while he was a little more wild than is ideal, he is rather advanced for his age and has a chance to be a backend starter. Though Melean is less physically projectable than the typical teen, his fastball already resides in the 90-94 range and he has an above-average, upper-70s curveball. He has feel for locating a changeup but it lacks movement right now, so this, as well as fastball command, would seem to be logical developmental priorities moving forward.

Other Prospects of Note

Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.

Corner Bats
Ryan Noda, 1B
Chad Spanberger, 1B
Mc Gregory Contreras, RF
Josh Palacios, RF
Demi Orimoloye, RF

Noda is extremely selective and has walked in over 20% of his plate appearances as a pro, but he’s a stiff, below-average athlete and needs to keep performing like this for the industry to view him as more than a statistical curiosity. Spanberger has 70 raw power and went nuts at hitter-friendly Asheville against pitching worse than what he saw in college before he was traded to Toronto. He cooled in the FSL afterward. Contreras has plus bat speed and power projection, a typical, high-risk right field profile, though he’s not a good defender yet. Palacios is also a corner guy with feel to hit but needs to find a way to tap into more power. Orimoloye was born in Nigeria and moved to Canada as a toddler. He was acquired from Milwaukee for Curtis Granderson just before the waiver deadline. Demi has plus raw but lacks feel to hit.

Polished Depth Arms
Thomas Pannone, LHP
Julian Merryweather, RHP
Josh Winckowski, RHP
Sean Wymer, RHP
Justin Maese, RHP
Zach Logue, LHP
Zach Jackson, RHP
Jackson McClelland, RHP
Jon Harris, RHP

Pannone has excellent changeup command but his limited velo and curveball likely cap his ceiling in the sixth starter area. Then with Cleveland, Merryweather was striking out a batter per inning at Double- and Triple-A in 2017 before he blew out late in the year and missed all of 2018. He’ll likely be back this year and could be a four-pitch reliever who relies heavily on velo. Winckowski may end up in a middle relief role. He sits 90-94 and has an above-average slider. Wymer was the club’s 2018 fourth rounder out of TCU. His stuff plays better out of the bullpen, where he’s 92-93 with command of a 55 curveball. Maese was a popup high schooler in tough-to-scout El Paso whose stuff has plateaued in the 45/50 area. Logue has 60 control of 45 stuff. Jackson has one of the more bizarre deliveries in baseball, and both he and McLelland have the stuff to be 40 FV relievers, but both are also very wild. Harris’ spin rates are strong but his fastball velocity has backed up since college.

Bench Types
Logan Warmoth, SS
Addison Barger, 3B
Forrest Wall, LF
Riley Adams, C
Max Pentecost, C/1B

After Warmoth’s pre-draft reports were divisive in 2017, when he was Toronto’s first rounder, they were consistently down throughout 2018. He may end up with an average bat and fringe power but he’s not likely to stay at short based on pro looks. He’s clearly been passed by several shortstops in the system. Barger has a plus-plus arm and played all over the infield last year but may only end up with 40 hit and power. We were too high on Wall last year. He can still run but maybe not well enough to play center field, which means he’s a contact-only left fielder. Adams is a physical beast with a plus arm and big raw power, but he swings and misses a lot due to lever length and his ceiling is that of a toolsy backup. Pentecost, like Wall, has never been quite the same since surgery and he’s a contact-only bat at a position that demands more.

System Overview

It’s hard to talk about this system and franchise without spending a good bit of time on Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. The previous regime not only landed a generational talent but one with ties to Canada, especially notable because of MLB’s clear marketing shortcomings. Vlad Jr. developed better than anyone expected and is one of the best prospects of recent memory.

The organization has hoarded players we consider 45s and 50s who couldn’t crack quality rosters in an attempt to prime the big league club with role players for the arrival of young stars like Vlad, Bichette, and Jansen. Not all of them will work out, but the list of players like this that the Blue Jays have acquired (Brandon Drury, Teoscar Hernandez, Trent Thornton, Randall Grichuk, David Paulino, Billy McKinney) is so long that enough of them should, enabling Toronto to build a competitive club around this wave of young talent.

This is almost the inverse of how most competitive sports teams are built, as franchise players are often the first ones in place and pieces are fit in around them. There still needs to be more pitching, though. Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez both had down years and this farm system isn’t exactly packed with arms. They can improve in free agency but competitive staffs almost always need a lot of depth to fight through injuries, so we still expect Toronto to be in asset collection mode for another year or two before they feel comfortable pushing their chips in.


Effectively Wild Episode 1332: The Life of Riley

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan dissect the trade that sent catcher J.T. Realmuto from the Marlins to the Phillies for Jorge Alfaro, Sixto Sanchez, and Will Stewart, honor the legacy of Frank Robinson, and then (22:28) bring back 88-year-old 1950s two-way player and podcast king Johnny O’Brien, along with his 24-year-old grandson, current Tampa Bay Rays minor leaguer Riley O’Brien, for an inter-generational conversation about baseball and player development, touching on Robinson and the late Bob Friend, the relationship between Johnny and Riley, life in the minors, baseball’s salary structure, changes in how players train and spend their offseasons, advances in velocity, strikeouts, and technology, and much more (plus a postscript on MLB’s just-concluded Mariners and Dodgers investigations).

Audio intro: Real Estate, "It’s Real"
Audio interstitial: Frank Sinatra, Gene Kelly, and Jules Munshin, "O’Brien to Ryan to Goldberg"
Audio outro: The Byrds, "John Riley"

Link to Jeff’s post on Realmuto and Marlins Park
Link to Jeff on Realmuto as baseball’s best catcher
Link to Jeff on the Realmuto trade
Link to first interview with Johnny
Link to Seattle Times article on the O’Brien twins
Link to video of Riley
Link to SI report on the Dodgers and Kapler
Link to SABR Award voting
Link to preorder The MVP Machine

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Phillies Acquire Great Catcher in Exchange for Mystery Box

Everyone is waiting for the Phillies to sign one of Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. It seems almost inevitable that the Phillies will sign one of Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. There’s some chance it even happens today! Who knows? But while the world has waited for the Phillies to signal that they’re going for it, they’ve already added a new everyday outfielder in Andrew McCutchen. They’ve already added a new everyday shortstop in Jean Segura. They’ve already added a new late-inning reliever in David Robertson. And now they’ve added a new regular catcher.

Phillies get:

Marlins get:

And so ends the drawn-out, months-long Realmuto sweepstakes, that saw him connected to a couple handfuls of teams. Just last week, I thought Realmuto was going to be traded to the Reds. The Phillies came almost out of nowhere. But, like the Reds, they’ve spent the offseason acting aggressively, and I can’t imagine they’re finished. The NL Central is going to be a hell of a division. And, the NL East is going to be a hell of a division. The Marlins are going to get beat up on the regular as a consequence, but then, they knew what they were getting into.

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