Brock Holt Has Been One of Baseball’s Best Hitters

If Game 3 of the ALDS between the Red Sox and Yankees is going to be remembered, it’ll be remembered for up to three reasons. It could be remembered for Aaron Boone’s alleged mismanaging of the pitching staff, believing too strongly in Luis Severino and then believing too strongly in Lance Lynn for some reason. It could be remembered for Angel Hernandez having three separate calls at first base overturned by replay review. And/or it could be remembered for Brock Holt hitting for the cycle. Yes, the cycle is a silly accomplishment, and yes, the home run to cap it off came against the Yankees’ backup catcher. But it was somehow the first cycle in the entire history of the playoffs, and the author was literally Brock Holt.

Holt is a 30-year-old utility player with a career wRC+ of 92. Including the playoffs, he has a total of 22 home runs to his name, and he didn’t so much as appear in Game 1 or Game 2. Holt’s entire identity is a big part of what makes this so delightful — you’d expect the first playoff cycle to belong to someone better. Someone like Willie Mays or Mookie Betts. Holt hitting for the playoff cycle feels like Adam Kennedy hitting three home runs in a playoff game against the Twins. I’ll say this much for Holt, though: This didn’t come completely out of nowhere. Of late, few hitters in baseball have been better than him.

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Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat – 10/9/18

2:00
Meg Rowley: Hello, and welcome to the chat!

2:00
Meg Rowley: It feels strange to chat without the help and humor of my colleagues but I guess we must soldier on.

2:00
Nate: Angel Hernandez’s performance last definitely hurts his lawsuit, does it not?

2:02
Meg Rowley: Obviously, I don’t know anything more about his case or claim than what has been reported, but I think it is important to remember that his poor performance does not mean that he couldn’t have faced discrimination. I would hope (and imagine) that whatever judge or arbiter is hearing his case will approach it more dispassionately than sports fans watching a playoff game.

2:02
CamdenWarehouse: As we sit here watching Osuna pitch, do you get any sense that MLB has heard people about DV suspensions and post season play? Any chance of a change coming?

2:03
Meg Rowley: I don’t have a sense of how the league office is viewing this, or how much of the discourse online has gotten to them or the union.

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Rick Porcello on Elevating and Evolving

Boston’s Rick Porcello enters tonight’s ALDS Game Four at Yankee Stadium — a potential clincher for the Red Sox — having recorded the second-highest pitching WAR and most innings for a Boston club that won 108 games. The 29-year-old right-hander also goes in with 10 full seasons of big-league experience. He’s learned a lot in those 10 seasons.

Porcello is savvy — in a number of ways. Fully at home with analytics — terms like “spin axis” are part of his vernacular — Porcello is equally reliant on his instincts. The 1,800-plus major-leauge innings he’s authored have taught him that an ability to adjust on the fly is invaluable. He knows that hitters have just as much access to data as he does.

He’s evolved since debuting with the Detroit Tigers in 2009. Primarily a ground-ball specialist in his earliest seasons, Porcello now relies heavily on elevated four-seam fastballs. He’s not a flame-thrower — his heater sits in the low 90s — but thanks to an above-average spin rate and an array of offspeed offerings, he’s become increasingly effective upstairs. Changing eye levels is a key. When he’s on his game, Porcello is adept at getting hitters to chase pitches both above and below the strike zone.

———

Rick Porcello on learning what works: “Through experience, I’ve acquired knowledge of what it takes to be a starting pitcher at the big-league level. That includes what it takes to go out there every five days as a starting pitcher. There’s a learning process involved. There’s mental preparation and physical preparation.

“As far as attacking hitters, there have been ebbs and flows since I first got to the big leagues — which pitches are effective, which zones to throw to. For example, the high fastball. Nobody threw that when I got here. The high fastball was just to change eye levels, then you’d get back down and try to command the ball at the bottom of the zone. It’s completely different now.

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The Rockies Were Bad and Still Almost Won

History won’t look back too kindly on the Rockies’ 2018 playoff run. They were outscored 13-2 in a three-game sweep at the hands of the Brewers. They produced one of the most pitiful offensive performances in postseason history. All in all, it wasn’t a great success.

A look at the team’s lineup reveals that the performance wasn’t completely surprising, either. While the club’s .334 wOBA ranked (tied for) fourth in all of baseball, the Rockies’ hitting exploits were much less impressive after accounting for Coors Field. Indeed, their adjusted batting line placed them among the 10 worst teams in all of baseball by that measure. Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, and Trevor Story were the only qualified Rockies hitters to produce a 100 wRC+ or better. By definition, that left two-thirds of the lineup to below-average hitters. That was never going to be ideal, and it showed in their loss to the Brewers.

Nevertheless, the series was far from a blowout. Rockies pitchers, particularly the starters, fared well — especially considering that Kyle Freeland didn’t get a start in the series and Jon Gray, who faltered at the end of the season, wasn’t even part of the NLDS roster. Tyler Anderson, German Marquez, and Antonio Senzatela gave up just five runs in 16 innings, keeping things close enough for their teammates. Overall, Colorado trailed by more than two runs in just five of the 28 innings during which they batted. A bloop and a blast would have given Colorado the lead half of the time they stepped to the plate — and also would have tied the game on another eight occasions, as the graph below illustrates.

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Boone Fiddles While the Bronx Burns

NEW YORK — In stark contrast to the proficiency with which he handled staff ace Luis Severino in the Yankees’ AL Wild Card win, pulling the right-hander after four electrifying (if wild) innings, manager Aaron Boone appeared to be caught flat-footed last night in Game Three of the AL Division Series against the Red Sox.

Well equipped to handle Severino’s heat, the Boston lineup — featuring four players who didn’t start Game Two — hit scorcher after scorcher off the 24-year-old righty through the first three innings, building up a 3-0 lead in the process. By the time Boone came out of the dugout, three batters into the fourth inning, he was too late. The pitcher to whom he turned offered little relief, too. The resulting seven-run outburst broke the game open, paving the way for the Red Sox to humiliate the Yankees 16-1, the most lopsided postseason loss in the franchise’s history and one that pushed them to the brink of elimination in the best-of-five series.

The small fraction of the 49,657 attendees who stuck around to the bitter end witnessed not only that bit of history but another, as well, as Red Sox second baseman Brock Holt became the first player ever to hit for the cycle in a postseason game. The coup de grâce came in the form of a two-run ninth-inning homer off Austin Romine, normally the Yankees’ backup catcher but here just the second position player ever to pitch in a postseason game.

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Job Posting: Red Sox Major League Clubhouse Analyst

Position: Boston Red Sox Major League Clubhouse Analyst

Location: Boston, MA

Description:
The Boston Red Sox seek an analyst to support the major league coaching staff while working closely with the major league manager, senior analyst in Baseball Analytics, and Advance Scouting department.

This is an opportunity to work in a fast-paced, intellectually curious environment and to potentially impact player performance and on-field strategy.

Responsibilities:

  • Statistical modeling and quantitative analysis of a variety of data sources, for the purpose of optimizing on-field player performance and strategic decision-making.
  • Effectively present analyses through the use of written reports and data visualization to disseminate insights to members of the major league coaching staff.
  • Travel with the major league team throughout the season, including to the Red Sox spring training facility. During the offseason this position will be based in Boston working with Baseball Analytics.
  • Maintain working expertise of leading-edge analytics, including publicly available research and novel statistical approaches, in order to recommend new or emerging techniques, technologies, models, and algorithms.
  • Other projects and related duties as directed by the major league manager, senior analyst in Baseball Analytics, and other members of Baseball Operations leadership.

Qualifications:

  • Bachelor’s degree in an analytical field such as statistics, predictive analytics, data science, engineering, applied math, physics, quantitative social sciences, computer science, or operations research.
  • Demonstrated experience with baseball data analysis.
  • Advanced understanding of statistical methods or machine learning techniques.
  • Proficiency with modern database technologies including SQL.
  • Demonstrated experience with programming languages (e.g., R or Python).
  • Demonstrated ability to communicate technical ideas to non-technical audiences using data visualization.
  • Proficiency in Microsoft Office (Excel, PowerPoint, Word).
  • Demonstrated work ethic, passion for baseball, and strong baseball knowledge, including familiarity with current baseball research and analysis.
  • Attention to detail while also having the ability to work quickly and balance multiple priorities.
  • Experience working for a major league club preferred.
  • Ability to work evening, weekend, and holiday hours is a must.
  • Other programming and database skills are a plus.

To Apply:
To apply, please send an email to analyticsresume@redsox.com with the subject “Clubhouse Analyst.” Please include the following items/answers to the following questions:

  • Updated resume
  • Example of analysis you’ve done, preferably related to baseball
  • What is a project that you believe would add substantial value to a baseball team? Please describe the project and provide an overview of how you would complete it.

Effectively Wild Episode 1280: The 1.8 Percent Strike

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about Scott Oberg and the difference between good and bad balk calls, the Brewers sweeping the Rockies and the state of playoff bullpenning, the Astros juggernaut, Dodgers vs. Braves, Ronald Acuna’s grand slam, and the new Clayton Kershaw, the anomalous playoff performances of Kershaw and David Price, the Yankees’ sluggers and the appeal of balls knocked out of the ballpark, and more.

Audio intro: Built to Spill, "Gone"
Audio outro: Joel Plaskett, "Gone, Gone, Gone"

Link to Oberg balk
Link to Sam on balks
Link to Acuna grand slam
Link to Gary Sanchez homers
Link to Glenallen Hill homer
Link to Mark McGwire homer
Link to the .247 shirt

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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 10/8/18

11:59
Dan Szymborski: Noon: A Time for Chats

12:00
Dan Szymborski: Let’s have some fun travelling an hour farther on the road between the cradle and the grave.

12:00
J: Wander Franco: the next Juan Soto?

12:00
Dan Szymborski: How did this Wander Franco meme start?

12:00
Matthew: What teams do you think do the best scouting amatuer talent?

12:01
Dan Szymborski: It’s a difficult question as I’d be judging more results than the individual abilities of the scouts on each team. I’m not as connected with individual scouts, I think that’s a McDongenhagen question.

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Small-Sample Theater Comes to the Postseason

With its assortment of winner-take-all, best-of-five and best-of-seven series, playoff baseball is inherently small-sample theater. Obviously, the wins and losses mean a whole lot to the teams and their fans, but there’s danger in ascribing too much meaning to the numbers that underly them given the circumstances. Nonetheless, we can’t help but notice certain trends, and wonder how they may connect to what we spent six months observing over the course of the regular season. While far from comprehensive, here are a handful of things that caught my eye through the first four days of Division Series play.

Astros vs. Indians: Nearly Hitless in Houston

Through the first two games of their Division Series, the Indians have been almost completely stifled by the Astros’ pitching. In Game 1, they didn’t get their first hit off Justin Verlander until Yan Gomes‘ single to lead off the sixth inning. In Game 2, they didn’t collect a hit after Melky Cabrera‘s infield single off Gerrit Cole in the fifth. In all, they’ve totaled just six hits, which puts them in jeopardy of having the fewest in a Division Series if their bats don’t perk up in Game 3. Likewise, for Division Series records for fewest total bases; they currently have nine, with Francisco Lindor’s Game 2 homer, which briefly gave them a 1-0 lead, their only extra-base hit. Here are the lowest totals for hits in a three-game ALDS or NLDS:

Fewest Hits in Division Series, 1995-2018
Team Year H Opponent
Reds 2010 11 Phillies
Rangers 1998 13 Yankees
Dodgers 1996 14 Braves
Rangers 1999 14 Yankees
Rockies 2018 14 Brewers

And for total bases:

Fewest Total Bases in Division Series, 1995-2018
Team Year TB Opponent
Rangers 1998 16 Yankees
Rockies 2018 18 Brewers
Reds 2010 19 Phillies
Rangers 1999 19 Yankees
Astros 1997 20 Braves

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Fans Scouting Report: Ballots Needed!

We are currently seeking additional ballots for a handful of teams for the Fans Scouting Report.

If you follow the Royals, Twins, Rangers, Diamondbacks, Marlins, Pirates or Padres it would be a great help if you took a short amount of time to fill out a ballot.

We could also use ballots for the Orioles, Mets, Rockies, Brewers, White Sox and Dodgers, but these are in a little bit less of dire need.

The compiled results of these ballots end up on the player pages and the leaderboards.

In addition, if you have filled out a valid ballot (at any time this year, ballots before today included), we are going to be randomly selecting 20 users for a free year of FanGraphs Ad Free Membership! These 20 members will be selected when the ballot closes. If you are selected and already have an Ad Free Membership, your membership will be extended for 12 months.

Thank you for your help!