Did the Yankees Just Win the Wild Card Game?

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July 25, 2018

There’s a reason some have connected starting pitchers to the Yankees.

According to ERA- and WAR, the Yankees’ rotation ranks behind that of the other AL elites like the Astros, Indians, and Red Sox, which rank 1-2-3 in ERA-. The Yankees rank sixth (95), just better than league average.

Only Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, and Fringe Five alumnus Jonathan Loaisiga project to produce ERA and FIP marks below four the rest of the way, according to FanGraphs Depth Charts. While Severino is an ace, playoff contenders typically always want more starting pitching. Even Yu Darvish wasn’t seen as a luxury item to the pitching-rich Dodgers last season.

But on Tuesday, the Yankees continued to do what they’ve done since last deadline season by adding to the game’s best bullpen — according to ERA, WAR and ERA- — with the addition of Zach Britton.

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Rays Add Lefty Jalen Beeks to Deep System

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July 25, 2018

Here are my very brief thoughts on Jalen Beeks, who was acquired by Tampa Bay from Boston in exchange for Nathan Eovaldi:

Beeks was ranked 6th in a bad Red Sox system entering the year and received a 45 FV grade from us as we thought he had passable control and a deep enough pitch mix to start. He proceeded to dominate the International League and had accumulated 117 strikeouts in 87.1 innings at the time of the trade.

We still have a 45 FV on Beeks, who has a fringe fastball in the 89-93-mph range, an above-average curveball, and an average changeup and cutter. Finding some way for the fastball to play is of paramount importance to Beeks’ ability to start, and it’s probably going to take heavier in-zone use of his curveball to keep hitters from sitting on a relatively hittable fastball. Tampa Bay’s pitchers have used their fastballs less than all other big leagues teams aside from the Yankees, so this seems likely to occur. Beeks projects as a No. 4 or No. 5 starter, and because we’re talking about a lefty with a good breaking ball, his injury-independent floor is that of a good bullpen piece.

You could argue this was Boston’s best realistic trade chip as none of the other 45 FV prospects in the org have really performed this year, and 50 FV prospects Michael Chavis (PED suspension) and Jay Groome (Tommy John) have other issues impacting their value.


Red Sox and Rays Both Bet on Results

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July 25, 2018

The Astros have it relatively easy: They’re a super-team lacking meaningful divisional competition. The Indians have it even easier: They should resemble a super-team as well, playing in one of the very worst divisions in modern baseball history. This isn’t what it’s like for the Yankees or the Red Sox. While both teams are almost certainly going to the playoffs, one of them will have to survive the wild-card game, which brings an abrupt end to one competitive team’s season. Even though either team would be favored in this year’s matchup, neither is excited by the prospect, so they’re working to try to finish in first. Late Tuesday, the Yankees got better by fetching help in the bullpen. Early Wednesday, the Red Sox responded by fetching help in the rotation.

Red Sox get:

Rays get:

It’s a clean trade — a one-for-one between a team in the hunt and a team watching it from the outside. In general, it looks how these trades usually look. The good team is getting a veteran rental, and the worse team is getting a longer-term prospect. Indeed, you could say this is a normal trade for the teams to make. But even normal trades are interesting! And for both sides, this is a bet on the numbers. It’s a bet on the new Eovaldi, and on the new Beeks. Both have been pitchers in transition.

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The 2018 Replacement-Level Killers: Shortstop and Third Base

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July 25, 2018
2018 Replacement-Level Killers

The Pirates’ hot streak has them in contention, but Jordy Mercer may not be cutting it at shortstop.
(Photo: Ian D’Andrea)

We live in amazing times when it comes to the collection of talent that is occupying the left side of the infield — or is supposed to be, if not for injuries (we miss you, Corey Seager, and please come back soon, Carlos Correa and Josh Donaldson). Remarkably, at a position where defense reigns supreme, shortstops as a group are hitting for a collective 99 wRC+ at this point, up from the range of 87 to 92 that it’s occupied since 2002. Third basemen are at a high as well as far as offense with a 108 mark. And in case you haven’t seen the highlight reels, there is no shortage of guys from these two positions who can Pick It.

As it happens, nearly every contender this year — which for this series I’ve defined as teams with playoff odds at least 15.0%, a definition that currently covers 16 teams — is outfitted well enough at the two positions, having balanced offensive and defensive concerns such that there’s a dearth of Replacement-Level Killer candidates. Only three teams from among the eight who have received less than 1.0 WAR from their shortstops are contenders, and likewise, just three others from among the 10 are in the same situation at third base. One team has needs in both areas, namely the Pirates, whose 11-game winning streak has pushed their odds above 15% and thus forced me to include them in this exercise, even though you, I, and Bob Nutting all know they’re still very long shots.

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Daily Prospect Notes: 7/25/18

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July 25, 2018

Notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Luis Rengifo, MIF, Los Angeles Angels (Profile)
Level: Triple-A   Age: 21   Org Rank: NR   FV: 45
Line: 3-for-5, 2 2B

Notes
Rengifo slipped through the cracks of our offseason team prospect lists, as he was traded from Tampa Bay to Los Angeles after we had finished the Angels’ writeup but before we had finished the Rays’. It’s turned into a fairly significant failure of process, as Rengifo has traveled three levels throughout the year, walking more than he has struck out while swiping 37 bases. Rengifo profiles as a max-effort utility guy who contributes in many subtle ways. Chone Figgins comps were being made before Rengifo was traded to the Angels and now seem more prescient — if perhaps a bit overzealous, as Rengifo doesn’t have that kind of elite speed.

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Hall of Fame Induction Weekend 2018 Roundup

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July 25, 2018

It’s somewhat lost in the buildup to the July 31 trade deadline, but this coming weekend is Hall of Fame Induction Weekend in Cooperstown, New York. Saturday, July 28 will feature the presentation of this year’s Ford C. Frick Award for broadcasters (Bob Costas) and the J.G. Taylor Spink Award for writers (Sheldon Ocker), as well as the Parade of Legends. Sunday, July 29 will feature the inductions of six former players, namely BBWAA honorees Vladimir Guerrero, Trevor Hoffman, Chipper Jones, and Jim Thome, plus Modern Baseball Era honorees Jack Morris and Alan Trammell. Not since 1971 has the Hall inducted as many living honorees. For a full schedule of the festivities for June 27-30, see here.

If you’re among the many thousands of people making the pilgrimage to Cooperstown, you can purchase a signed copy of my book, The Cooperstown Casebook (which was released one year ago today; see Paul Swydan’s review for The Hardball Times as well as an excerpt from “Chapter 6: Blyleven, Morris, and the War on WAR”) and perhaps even talk a little baseball with me on Saturday afternoon. From 1 to 3 pm, I’ll be hawking my wares in front of Willis Monie Books at 139 Main St. Other authors will be signing there, as well, all weekend long.

Whether or not you buy a book, you can see the eight-minute spot I did discussing this year’s class and upcoming candidates with MLB Network’s Brian Kenny (filling in for Chris Russo) on Tuesday’s episode of High Heat:

For more of my yakkin’, I’ll also be part of an MLB Network roundtable on The Rundown on Friday at 2:45 pm ET and then on MLB Now from 4-5 pm.

Finally, if you want to read more about this year’s inductees, I’ve got lengthy, JAWS-flavored profiles of all six of them at SI.com: Guerrero, Hoffman, Jones, Morris, Thome, and Trammell.


Red Sox Acquire Nathan Eovaldi

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July 25, 2018

Who trades players at 10 AM? The Red Sox, apparently, is who. That’s what they’ve done today, at least, picking up right-hander Nathan Eovaldi from the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for minor-league pitcher Jalen Beeks.

Trading Eovaldi represents the successful culmination of a two-year strategy for the Rays, who signed him to a one-year, $2 million contract for a 2017 he was going to miss due to Tommy John surgery. A one-year option for $2 million gave the Rays a chance to get some serious upside in value for their patience, $4 million representing basically ashtray money when it comes to signing major-league-competent starting pitchers.

Eovaldi’s always been a bit of a puzzle, a pitcher who possessed a fastball that touched 100 mph but lacked the key to closing the deal and punching out batters, his breaking pitches never effectively complementing his velocity. Relying heavily on a cutter this year, however, Eovaldi has produced the highest strikeout rate of his career to date (23.7%). Eovaldi had fooled around with the pitch before, but this is the first time he’s had real success with the pitch, FanGraphs’ linear-weighted measure of pitch value gives him the 10th-most valuable cutter in baseball this season, ninth on a rate basic for pitchers with a minimum of 50 innings.

Nathan Eovaldi, Pitch Usage 2018
LHH Four-Seam Cutter Slider Curve Split
All Counts 43% 31% 1% 3% 23%
First Pitch 56% 30% 0% 7% 7%
Batter Ahead 40% 47% 4% 1% 8%
Even 47% 26% 0% 6% 21%
Pitcher Ahead 39% 25% 1% 1% 34%
Two Strikes 37% 21% 1% 1% 39%
RHH Four-Seam Cutter Slider Curve Split
All Counts 41% 26% 25% 0% 8%
First Pitch 45% 29% 26% 0% 0%
Batter Ahead 33% 47% 19% 0% 1%
Even 43% 28% 25% 0% 5%
Pitcher Ahead 42% 15% 28% 1% 14%
Two Strikes 38% 16% 26% 0% 21%
SOURCE: Brooks Baseball

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Kiley McDaniel Chat – 7/25/18

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July 25, 2018
12:28

Kiley McDaniel: Sorry for the delay, just wrapping up a call. We’ll be rolling out the updated prospect lists in the coming days, leading up to the deadline.
12:29

Kiley McDaniel: ICYMI I did the Trade Value series last week and a think piece on trade value and which teams have the best trade ammunition https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/which-teams-could-even-trade-for-lindo…
12:29

Jeb: What is Travis Swaggerty’s upside?
12:30

Kiley McDaniel: 50 hit, 60 power, 50 D in CF. Could be a 3-4 win guy
12:30

Guest: Think about Jalen Beeks Rays just acquired
12:30

Kiley McDaniel: Just tweeted out some thoughts on that deal, TB’s competitive situation and Beeks specifically in  a thread here

 

Kiley McDaniel
@kileymcd

 

New Rays LHP Jalen Beeks has taken a unique path. He was a pretty generic smaller lefty at Arkansas w/fringe to ave… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
25 Jul 2018

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The Manager’s Perspective: Matt LeCroy on Mentoring in the Minors

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July 25, 2018
The Manager's Perspective

Matt LeCroy played for Ron Gardenhire back when the former was a slugging catcher-first baseman for the Minnesota Twins in the early 2000s. Today, he shares many of the veteran skipper’s attributes. LeCroy is now a manager himself — he skippers Washington’s Double-A affiliate, the Harrisburg Senators — and there’s a lot of ‘Gardy’ in the way he goes about his business. Equal parts engaging and nuts-and-bolts baseball rat, he’s adept at balancing the variety of responsibilities that comes with the job.

Managing in the minors obviously differs from managing in the big leagues. The focus is more on player development than it is on winning, which LeCroy learned after being hired to lead Low-A Hagerstown in 2009. Now, 10 years after that first managerial gig, he’s using his experience — including what he gleaned from Gardy — to mentor the likes of Carter Kieboom and, earlier this season, Juan Soto.

———

Matt LeCroy: “The biggest thing I’ve learned is to put players in positions to be successful. Preparing guys for the big leagues is a lot harder than I assumed it was going to be. When I first started out, I had goals, too. I figured that if I won, I may have a chance to go coach or manage in the big leagues. But that’s not why I’m here. My main job is to make sure I maximize everybody’s abilities to the highest level possible, so that they can go to the next level.

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Let’s Sell the Orioles!

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July 25, 2018

Gausman to the Pirates?
(Photo: Keith Allison)

During the All-Star break, Manny Machado was traded to the Dodgers for a solid package of prospects led by Yusniel Diaz. Last night, longtime closer Zach Britton was shipped off to the Yankees for Dillon Tate and some other interesting names. Both moves were obviously made with a view to the Orioles’ future.

Both moves were also inevitable, though — and, in a way, easy. It doesn’t take a fancypants scientist to figure out that trading terrific players who’re headed to free agency is a smart thing to do; us regular-pantsed folks can see that for ourselves. Now, though, there are harder decisions to make, other players to give away, if the Orioles are going to embrace a full rebuild. Complicating this is an organization that has shown a tendency to balk at hard decisions and put off future plans, preferring instead to tread water with the least aggressive quarter-measures available. In this case, however, action is required.

Unfortunately, we can’t just waltz into the B&O Warehouse and start trading away Orioles. Seriously, I double-checked what my credentials will permit. No, we may have to seize the team by force. Let’s presume that our dark FanGraphs forces can seize the corporate offices successfully — we do have a particular expertise involving WAR — and gain control of the franchise. It wouldn’t be the first war lost by the Angelos family, and Sheryl Ring can draft some paperwork to make this nice and legal. We have to be quick, though, before we all end up in jail. So let’s start the sale.

Kevin Gausman to the Pittsburgh Pirates

It seems a little too easy to sell Kevin Gausman to the Chicago Cubs and, really, at this point, I’m tired of Orioles pitchers going to Chicago and experiencing a renaissance. Jake Arrieta is the most noted example, but the Cubs squeezed significant value out of Jason Hammel, Pedro Strop, and even Tsuyoshi Wada. The Pirates aren’t rightly interested in rentals: they’ll require somebody who’s useful beyond the 2018 season because, even with their 11-game winning streak, they’re still more likely than not to miss the postseason.

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