Madison Bumgarner made his 2018 season debut on Tuesday night, and while the Giants lost to the D-backs, the return of the 28-year-old staff ace couldn’t have come at a much better time. The team’s rotation has been a mess due to injuries and underperformance, but a surprisingly resilient offense has kept them in the thick of what’s become a four-team NL West race.

Bumgarner, who was limited to 17 starts last year due to his infamous dirt-bike accident, suffered a fractured pinkie on his left (pitching) hand via a line drive off the bat of the Royals’ Whit Merrifield back on March 23. The injury required the insertion of three small pins that were removed four weeks later. He made just two rehab starts before returning to the Giants, so despite his strong performance, it wasn’t much of a surprise that he was pulled after six innings and 82 pitches with the Giants trailing, 2-1. Of the eight hits he allowed, six came in his first three innings, with back-to-back doubles by Ketel Marte and Chris Owings and a single by Kris Negron accounting for both Arizona runs in the second inning. Bumgarner needed a bit of help from his defense to escape a two-on, no-out mess in the third, with Brandon Crawford throwing out David Peralta at the plate and then Evan Longoria and Pablo Sandoval immediately following that with a 5-3 double play. Bumgarner didn’t walk anybody, generated 10 swing-and-misses (seven via his cutter), and all three of his strikeouts came in his final two innings of work.

Alas, Bumgarner pitched on a night when D-backs starter Patrick Corbin and company were just a bit better. The Giants’ 3-2 loss ended a five-game winning streak, but they rebounded on Wednesday for a come-from-behind, walk-off win. At 31-31, they’re just 1.5 games behind the D-backs and Rockies, who are tied for the division lead at 32-29. With the Dodgers struggling out of the gate, Arizona took a commanding lead in April, but its May slide and L.A.’s recent hot streak have helped to turn the NL West back into a race:

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Yesterday was a pretty good day for hitters on the comeback trail. Jason Heyward blasted a walk-off grand slam. Matt Kemp hit another home run. Ian Desmond hit another home run. Jurickson Profar hit another two home runs. And Pablo Sandoval hit his own home run. With the Giants, Sandoval’s been only a part-time player, but over 112 trips to the plate, he’s posted a 115 wRC+. He hasn’t finished as an above-average hitter since 2014.

Let’s take a closer look at Wednesday’s game. Sandoval homered in the bottom of the first. Before that, though, he took the first pitch from Clay Buchholz. In the third inning, he again took the first pitch from Buchholz. In the fifth inning, he again took the first pitch from Buchholz. In the eighth inning, he took the first pitch from Archie Bradley. In the tenth inning, he took the first pitch from Andrew Chafin. Stick with me here, because this is going to get weird. This is bigger than you could imagine.

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The season has gone pretty well for the Yankees thus far. Sure, the team brought in Neil Walker and Brandon Drury in the offseason and they are currently below replacement level; however, those two were acquired as placeholders for Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar, and the two prospects are already succeeding in the big leagues, leaving the performance of the acquisitions moot. Greg Bird got hurt again and Tyler Austin wasn’t great. Giancarlo Stanton has only been good and not great, but Aaron Judge has been great, and Didi Gregorius and Gary Sanchez have been good while Brett Gardner and Aaron Hicks have exceeded expectations. Yankees position players lead the American League in WAR at 13 and are projected to top all of baseball the rest of the way.

On the pitching side, the Yankees have done pretty well, too. Just as they were projected, the bullpen has been the best in baseball, striking out 32% of batters faced. Luis Severino has been one of the best pitchers in baseball with a 2.15 FIP that leads all qualified starters in the American League. After Severino, the rotation hasn’t been good, but with the bullpen, the team’s 9.5 WAR is third in all of baseball.

Fortunately for the Yankees, the team’s good results have translated in the win column up to this point with 40 victories. At this moment, they are projected to win more than 100 games and finish with the best record in baseball. The Yankees may be in an enviable position; however, there are some drawbacks to being an immensely talented, super-rich franchise piling up wins like nobody’s business.

The first drawback is their main rival, the Red Sox. Boston is also an immensely talented, super-rich franchise piling up wins, and only one of these two teams is going to win the division. Despite having the two best records in baseball and the highest playoff odds in the game, the Yankees and Red Sox rank fifth and sixth, respectively, in odds of making the division series. One of the two clubs is going to have to fend for itself in the Wild Card game in what will likely be a 50/50 shot against Shohei Ohtani, James Paxton, or maybe even Justin Verlander. Winning the division is going to affect the Yankees’ odds of winning the World Series by 5%-10%, maybe more.

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The Arizona Diamondbacks are currently tied for first place in the National League West with the Colorado Rockies, entering play today with a 32-29 record. If the D-backs don’t feel like a first-place team, that’s understandable: they just endured one of the worst months ever for a major-league club. As both the midway point of the season and the trade deadline approach, however, Arizona is still in reasonably fine shape. They’re projected for a winning season. They have a decent shot of making the playoffs.

To make that decent shot a reality, however, the D-backs were going to need some help in the outfield. As for why that is, I’ll address that below. For the moment, however, the relevant point is that the club required some kind of of reinforcement. Jon Jay might not seem like the solution to a contending club’s problems, but Jay is a decent ballplayer. What’s more, he’s a decent ballplayer who addresses Arizona’s greatest need. So Arizona traded for him, sending a pair of prospects to the Kansas City Royals, as noted here.

D-backs receive:

• Jon Jay

Royals receive:

• RHP Elvis Luciano
• LHP Gabe Speier

Eric Longenhagen wrote a bit on the prospects the Royals are set to receive, so we won’t get into that here, but it appears the Royals spent about $1 million paying Jay and received two players for their troubles, which isn’t a bad deal for them. As for the D-backs, they didn’t necessarily need Jay, but they needed someone like Jay, so the actual thing fits the bill.

Back in February, there was still some hope that the D-backs might be able to bring back J.D. Martinez after his great run last year pushed the club into the playoffs. Martinez signed with the Red Sox, so Arizona explored other options and reached decent solutions rather quickly. They inked Jarrod Dyson to a two-year deal that seemed like a good value for a plus defensive player who can play anywhere in the outfield. Then, a few days later, the team added Steven Souza Jr. in a trade from the Rays. In just a few days, the D-backs outfield had four quality outfielders with A.J. Pollock in center, David Peralta in left, Souza in right, and Dyson getting playing time everywhere.

Move forward to June and Chris Owings has started 34 of the team’s 61 games in the outfield, including 14 of the last 17 outings. Socrates Brito or Kristopher Negron have started in another half-dozen games over the last couple weeks. When Souza went down in the spring with a strained muscle, that was okay for Arizona because they had Dyson to fill in as a starter and A.J.Pollock started the season on fire. Owings, currently projected to be a replacement-level player or worse, was getting some time as the fourth outfielder, but his playing time was expected to be limited. Read the rest of this entry »

Click here for American League recap.

Below is a collection of notes on each National League team’s draft class. We’ve tried to touch briefly on the players each club selected through the first five rounds or so, with observations on players selected after that at our discretion. Generally, these are the prospects we think both (a) have a chance to appear on a team prospect list sometime in the near future and also (b) are likely to sign. The number in parentheses after each player’s name is the round in which he was drafted.

For more details on many of these players, consult THE BOARD, which has tool grades, links to video, and various information about the players.

Arizona Diamondbacks
Link to Draft Selections

SoCal prep 2B Matt McLain (1) is a smaller guy with a plus hit tool and the speed/hands to play somewhere up the middle… Virginia CF Jake McCarthy (CBA) missed most of the spring with a broken wrist but has average raw power, plus speed, and feel to hit, though he’ll need a swing adjustment in pro ball… Illinois prep CF Alek Thomas (2) has a long track record of hitting and has good feel for the game but slipped because of concerns about a lack of physicality. That won’t matter if he hits like proponents think he will… Kansas RHP Jackson Goddard (3) is a power arm who flashes electric stuff and likely lands in relief… Wright State RHP Ryan Weiss (4) shows solid-average stuff, has a back-end-starter profile… Oregon RHP Matt Mercer (5) is a Driveline guy who throws with high effort up to 97 mph. He has four pitches, but the changeup is way ahead of the breaking balls and he may end up in relief… Florida prep RHP Levi Kelly (8) is maxed out and is a fringe athlete, but he’s up to 96 mph and flashes a plus slider at times… Florida State LHP Tyler Holton (9) had Tommy John surgery this spring but flashed solid-average stuff and feel when healthy… Florida prep SS Blaze Alexander (11) has power, a 70 arm, and a chance to play shortstop but has had swing-and-miss issues against good pitching… Kentucky RHP Justin Lewis (12) is ultra lanky, sitting 89-93 mph with an above-average changeup and enough breaking ball to stick as a starter.

Read the rest of this entry »

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Click here for National League recap.

Below is a collection of notes on each American League team’s draft class. We’ve tried to touch briefly on the players each club selected through the first five rounds or so, with observations on players selected after that at our discretion. Generally, these are the prospects we think both (a) have a chance to appear on a team prospect list sometime in the near future and also (b) are likely to sign. The number in parentheses after each player’s name is the round in which he was drafted.

For more details on many of these players, consult THE BOARD, which has tool grades, links to video, and various information about the players.

Baltimore Orioles
Link to Draft Selections

Every year, a few of the high-school pitchers sitting in the 88-92 range the summer before their draft year have a huge uptick in stuff over the winter. This year, Baltimore first-rounder Grayson Rodriguez (1) was one of them, and he can really spin a breaking ball… Teams offered Oregon State SS Cadyn Grenier (2) seven figures coming out of high school but couldn’t quite cut a deal. His bat hasn’t developed as hoped in college, but he does have at least average raw power, is a plus-plus runner, and can play short… Arkansas righty Blaine Knight (3) was draft-eligible last year. He sits 91-93, will flash a plus slider, and could be a No. 4/5 starter… Prep lefty Drew Rom (4) has feel for three pitches and will touch 93… Iowa OF Rob Neustrom (5) is a corner-only guy with great control of the strike zone and above-average raw power… UCF RHP J.J. Montgomery (7) worked 92-96 this spring with an average changeup and fringey slider… UNC C Cody Roberts (11) is just an okay hitter but has a howitzer and is solid behind the plate… UCSB SS Clay Fisher (12) looked like a second-round pick last spring before multiple injuries sidetracked him and sapped his athleticism, hopefully just temporarily.

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Pitchers learn and develop different pitches, and they do so at varying stages of their lives. It might be a curveball in high school, a cutter in college, or a changeup in A-ball. Sometimes the addition or refinement is a natural progression — graduating from Pitching 101 to advanced course work — and often it’s a matter of necessity. In order to get hitters out as the quality of competition improves, a pitcher needs to optimize his repertoire.

In the eleventh installment of this series, we’ll hear from three pitchers — Tyler Clippard, A.J. Minter, and Seung Hwan Oh — on how they learned and/or developed a specific pitch.

———-

Tyler Clippard (Blue Jays) on His Changeup and Splitter

“My changeup is a pitch I’ve been throwing since I was 13 or 14 years old. It’s always been the same grip, kind of a circle change. The grip itself isn’t that unusual as far as how most people grip their changeup. The biggest thing I think I do a little differently than most guys is that I have the ability to kind of kill my lower half. That stems from a pitching coach I had at an early age. I took what he said to heart and developed a feel for not pushing off the rubber, for having a soft front side. Read the rest of this entry »

Is it even necessary to go over the background? I will quickly go over the background. Back in 2014, there was mounting concern that baseball no longer featured enough offense. Pitching had taken over, and we saw run-scoring plummet. Strikeouts, as you know, have only continued to go up over time, but that’s been countered by a sudden spike in home runs. There were 723 more home runs in 2015 than there were in 2014. There were 701 more home runs in 2016 than there were in 2015. There were 495 more home runs in 2017 than there were in 2016. Compared to 2014, the number of home runs hit in 2017 was up by a staggering 46%. That’s what baseball became — a showcase for the three true outcomes. Strikeouts and homers were in.

The surge in power made some people happy. It made other people sad. The remaining people were indifferent observers of a changing game. No matter your opinion, we were all left to wonder: now what? Would the power surge continue? Would the ball continue to fly? Would more and more batters continue to swing up, enthusiastically trading contact for dingers? It’s easy to observe a trend that’s already in the books. It’s more difficult to know where it’s going. Most of the time, anyway.

And in this case, I’ve given it away with the headline. What’s become of the home-run spike in 2018? There’s been, to be sure, no shortage of dingers. But the home-run count isn’t going up. It’s actually taken a step backward. Whether it’s signal or whether it’s noise, the home-run spike isn’t spiking.

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Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about Jonny Venters, Max Scherzer and immaculate innings, the futility of pitcher hitting in 2018, the NL’s encouraging interleague record, MLB buying Rawlings, the home-run rate, Ichiro throwing BP, Derek Dietrich’s dangerous juggling, and a world where Jerry Dipoto can trade draft picks. Then they bring on FanGraphs’ Kiley McDaniel and Dylan Higgins (20:46) to discuss some big storylines from the amateur draft, including Tigers top pick Casey Mize, the teams with the most at stake, the prevalence (or lack thereof) of two-way players, Yankees switch-everything draftee Anthony Seigler, Jordyn Adams, Kyler Murray, and baseball vs. football in the draft, Luke Heimlich, the role of data in the draft, social-media skeletons, the best draft names, a few favorite picks, and more. Then Ben wraps up with a few updates and news about an additional study about the baseball and home runs.

Audio intro: Everclear, "Out of My Depth"
Audio interstitial: Unlikely Friends, "Fifteen Rounds"
Audio outro: Harry Nilsson, "The Lottery Song"

Link to Ben’s pitcher hitting article
Link to Beth Davies-Stofka’s Baseball Prospectus article
Link to Meredith Wills’ baseball study

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