Jose Bautista Gets One More Chance

The track record for 37-year-olds coming off down years isn’t excellent.
(Photo: Keith Allison)

Jose Bautista hit 23 homers last season but still had trouble finding a job over the winter. This wasn’t a conspiracy against Bautista, though, or a case of the slow free-agent market at work. Those 23 homers put the former star in a tie for just 84th overall in the majors in 2017, a season during which 117 players hit 20 homers and three-fourths of qualified batters hit at least 15.

Between Bautista’s pedestrian home-run figure, his batting line of .203/.308/.366, and his 80 wRC+, few if any teams pursued him. His poor range in the outfield and similarly poor speed on the basepaths rendered him something worse than replacement-level last year, and at 37 years old, it’s reasonable to believe Bautista’s days as a productive player are behind him. Just in case he’s not done, however, the Atlanta Braves are going to give him a shot.

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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: Mock Draft and El Tablero

2:00
Eric A Longenhagen: Hi everyone, linkage: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-mlb-mock-draft-v-1-0/

2:01
Eric A Longenhagen: That’s today’s mock draft which dumps our current intel.

2:01
Eric A Longenhagen: Here’s our updated draft board: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/updated-2018-mlb-draft-rankings/

2:02
Eric A Longenhagen: And here are details on the giant board of every minor leaguer we ranked on a list, even if we haven’t posted the full reports ont he site yet: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/introducing-the-board/

2:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Forgive me if I cut today’s chat short. Yesterday was not a good one in the Galmenhagen house as my wife’s cat of ten years, who has been hospitalized this week, took a turn for the worse. On my wife’s birthday. Yeah. Anyway…

2:03
Billy Beane: Are there any organizations you have a hard time scouting just because of location?

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Bryan Price Becomes a Scapegoat

We thought the Reds were going to be pretty awful. FanGraphs’ preseason projections had Cincinnati finishing last in the NL Central with 71 wins, a 2% chance of reaching the postseason, and zero chance of winning the World Series.

The Reds have been even worse than expected to begin he season, entering play Thursday with a 3-15 record, the most losses in the majors and also (along with Kansas City) the fewest wins. The Reds are also the owners of the major’s worst run differential (-46).

So Cincinnati gave us the most traditional of responses Thursday morning, firing manager Bryan Price. In four-plus seasons with the Reds, Price had a 279-387 mark. He recorded one season of 70 wins or better, a 76-win 2014 campaign. The club also removed pitching coach Mack Jenkins. Read the rest of this entry »


Jarlin the Marlin and Hidden No-Hitters

The 2018 Marlins have had precious little about which to cheer so far, and the forecast calls for more of the same. The performance of 25-year-old lefty Jarlin Garcia has been an exception, however. In the first two starts of his big-league career, Jarlin the Marlin* threw a hidden no-hitter — no hits allowed over a span of 27 outs, stretched across multiple games — via six hitless innings against the Mets on April 11 followed by 4.1 hitless innings against the Yankees on Tuesday night. Garcia was hardly perfect, scattering eight walks across those two starts, but joining Bartolo Colon and Shohei Ohtani in an exclusive club — the other pitchers to throw hidden no-hitters so far in 2018 — is close to perfection itself.

*His name is actually pronounced HAR-leen, which puts him behind teammate Starlin Castro in that pecking order.

Prior to his seven no-hit innings against the Astros on Sunday, Colon had gone the last 2.2 innings of his three-inning relief stint on April 10 without allowing a hit. Ohtani’s last 4.2 innings of his April 1 outing against the A’s were hitless, as were his first 6.1 in the rematch a week later. He and Garcia thus share the season high of 33 outs without a hit recorded.

Like any reputable speakeasy, you won’t find the Hidden No-Hitter Club on Google Maps, but the club itself isn’t that exclusive (a point which I’ll address momentarily). But first, consider Garcia. Unlike Colon and Ohtani, with whom you can’t help but be familiar if you’re reading this, he’s hardly a household name. The 6-foot-3, 215-pound Dominican-born southpaw isn’t a rookie, having spent all but the first couple weeks of last season in the Marlins’ bullpen, from which he made 68 appearances to the tune of a 4.73 ERA and 4.23 FIP. He jumped to the majors from Double-A Jacksonville, where over the course of 2016 and early -17 he totaled all of 80.1 innings, mostly as a starter; he missed 10 weeks in mid-2016 due to a triceps strain, and entered last season with mixed reviews as to whether he was even one of the top 10 prospects in one of the game’s worst farm systems.

As a reliever, Garcia held his own through the end of August (2.91 ERA, 3.74 FIP), then allowed nine runs while retiring just three hitters in his first two September appearances. In all, he struck out a modest 18.7% of hitters while relying upon a combination of a four-seam fastball that averaged 94.7 mph, a slider that produced a 14.5% whiff rate and a .194 AVG/.242 SLG when put in play, and a changeup that produced a 21.7% whiff rate and .129 AVG/.258 SLG when put in play (data via Brooks Baseball).

With nothing to lose but another 100 or so games, the Marlins decided to return Garcia to the rotation for 2018, and while the results have been superficially encouraging, neither his .096 BABIP nor his 2.6-point K-BB% mark (16.9% K, 14.3% BB) are sustainable. But until he’s just another guy getting knocked around in a Marlins’ uniform, his performance is at least worth celebrating. In terms of predecessors, I’ve struggled to find a parallel for his hitless first start, which ended after 77 pitches because manager Don Mattingly and pitching coach Juan Nieves saw signs he was laboring.

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Job Posting: Marlins Baseball Operations Analyst Intern

Position: Miami Marlins Baseball Operations Analyst Intern

Location: Jupiter, FL

Description:
The Baseball Operations Analyst Intern will assist Baseball Operations decision-making through the analysis and research of baseball information. The specific day-to-day responsibilities of this position will revolve around analyzing data to answer baseball-related questions. A competitive candidate will possess an established foundation of statistical, programming, and database skills. The position will report to the Director of Analytics.

Responsibilities:

  • Research, develop, and test mathematical, statistical, and predictive models to support Baseball Operations in player evaluation, roster construction, and game tactics.
  • Develop data pipelines and visualizations to increase efficiency of the Baseball Operations department.
  • Expand upon Marlins analytical strategy by improving existing resources and creating new data models, metrics, applications, and reports.
  • Perform ad-hoc research projects as requested and present results in a concise manner.

Qualifications:

  • Demonstrated baseball research and strong technical ability.
  • Ability to communicate baseball analytics concepts to individuals with diverse baseball backgrounds, including coaches, scouts, and executives outside of analytics.
  • Understanding of and passion for the game of baseball.
  • Strong familiarity with current state of baseball research.
  • Strong work ethic, attention to detail, and ability to self-direct.
  • Ability to work extended hours including evenings, weekends, and holidays.

Suggested Education/Experience:

  • Bachelor’s degree in an analytical field such as statistics, engineering, applied math, physics, computer science, or operations research.
  • Meaningful work experience with relational databases and SQL, as well as experience with R, Python, or another statistical software required.
  • Understanding of and experience with machine learning and other advanced forecasting techniques is strongly preferred.
  • Experience with a scripting language (e.g. Powershell, Ruby, Perl) or web development strongly preferred.
  • Ability and desire to learn other programming languages as needed.
  • Baseball playing experience a plus.

To Apply:
Please email materials (resume, cover letter, research, etc.) to marlinsanalyticsjobs@gmail.com.


Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 4/19/18

12:01
Jay Jaffe: Hello and welcome to the latest edition of my Thursday chat. I think I injured my shoulder patting myself on the back for predicting Bryan Price would get fired back in 2015, and every subsequent year since. But other than that, i’m doing well…

12:01
Wes: Given the expectations for the Reds this season, how bad of a manager do you have to be to get fired after 18 games? What else was going on in the clubhouse?

12:03
Jay Jaffe: As somebody who long ago failed to see the logic of continuing with Price, I’m clearly not the best expert to ask about his continued employment, but to me, any time you fire a manager this early, it’s an indictment of the decision makers above (unless there’s a specific, precipitating incident). Even 3-15 — if you’re a rebuilding team, you have a plan for the year or you don’t. And I’m not clear on what the Reds’ plan was here that necessitates a change now when it didn’t in October.

12:03
Joshua: What is your favorite IPA?

12:05
Jay Jaffe: Pliny the Elder and Heady Topper are the two favorites, but I’m lucky if I get to taste both in the same year given their scarcity around these parts of Brooklyn. My local go-to lately has been Threes Brewing’s Unreliable Narrator, a dank, tropical IPA that they release about every month or so and deliver to me by the case.

12:05
Slapshot: What are your thoughts on NEIPAs?  If you like them, do you have any particular favorites?

Read the rest of this entry »


2018 MLB Mock Draft v 1.0

With the event itself still over a month and a half away, it’s still too early to say with any type of certainty which clubs will select which players in June’s draft. That said, we’ve become familiar enough with industry consensus and player buzz in recent weeks to take a stab at projecting the first 10 picks.

As mentioned yesterday in our updated draft rankings, signability is everything in a hard-capped draft, and most prospects haven’t even met with their advisors yet to set a number, though there have been indications in many cases.

The depth of the class is found in high-school talent in the 20-50 overall range. With the top of the draft unsettled — and with a couple teams featuring lots of extra picks and pool money (draft order) — there will likely be a pick or two among the top 15 signed for well below slot to set up some overslot bonuses at later picks. With the specific dope on every pick getting spottier around the 10th pick, we cut things off there, but there’s plenty of buzz on that 20-50 range as clubs line up contingency options should the board blow up for their first pick.

1. Detroit Tigers – Casey Mize, RHP, Auburn

All of our intel suggests that Mize will be the pick here, provided he doesn’t get hurt and his medical comes back fine. It’s not a 100% slam dunk, but that scenario seems well over 50% likely. In the event things go sideways with Mize, Wisconsin prep CF Jarred Kelenic is the second option and would be signable for a lower bonus, but the weather and competition he’s facing this spring has made him tougher to scout than some other similarly ranked prospects. Wichita State 3B Alec Bohm is another player who has been mentioned here, but he seems like a longshot at this point.

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Introducing THE BOARD

Eric and I have been working hard the last few months to rank everything that we can, including produce at the grocery store and our friends and family. As far as the rankings that appear on FanGraphs, we’ve had Prospect Week, headlined by the annual top-100 prospects list and complemented by nine other associated pieces, including preseason draft rankings that were updated yesterday to account for what’s happened in the last 10 weeks.

In that spirit of ranking and constantly updating, along with the desire to show our work and give readers tools to make decisions, today we are introducing THE BOARD.

This represents just the first pass at a feature that is likely to be modified and improved upon. Feel free to submit any suggestions in the comments. (I, personally, have a list of about a dozen additions for the coming months.) While we could have continued to develop this before releasing it, we felt this was something from which readers could benefit ASAP. It also serves as a bit of an apology for the team prospect lists taking so long. We’ll still be releasing an article for each team as planned over the next couple weeks. In the meantime, though, every organization is included in THE BOARD, updated with full tool grades. Readers, for example, can check out some of those to-be-published audits, like the record-breaking Padres’ list featuring 43 prospects.

A big hat tip is in order to dark overlord David Appelman for making our crazy ideas a reality.

Click here to see THE BOARD.

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The Red Sox Have a New Identity

As I was researching a Mookie Betts article yesterday, I kept coming across various suggestions that Betts was thriving because of a more swing-happy mindset. Maybe that’s true on some level, but Betts isn’t actually swinging more. He continues to run one of the lowest swing rates in either league. The key for Betts has been pulling the ball in the air. He’s hunted pitches to drive, and he’s driven them as he wanted. There are few better pull hitters in the game.

That being said, while Betts hasn’t turned into anything particularly aggressive, he has given a little push to his in-zone swing rate. He’s cut down on his out-of-zone swing rate. There’s no benefit from swinging at would-be balls. And as for the rest of the Red Sox around him — this has become a different-feeling lineup. The Red Sox, as a team, have changed their approach, bringing to an end a long era of patience.

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Effectively Wild Episode 1205: Baseball on the Brain

EWFI

Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about Shohei Ohtani’s blister, the Braves signing Jose Bautista as a third baseman, and Oakland’s well-attended free-admission game, then talk to two authors of new books about what happens in baseball players’ brains: Zach Schonbrun, author of The Performance Cortex: How Neuroscience is Redefining Athletic Genius (11:58), and former MLB pitcher (and current Giants mental skills coach) Bob Tewksbury, author of Ninety Percent Mental: An All-Star Player Turned Mental Skills Coach Reveals the Hidden Game of Baseball (41:04).

Audio intro: Violent Femmes, "Blister in the Sun"
Audio interstitial 1: The Action, "Brain"
Audio interstitial 2: Beulah, "Don’t Forget to Breathe"
Audio outro: Superchunk, "Lost My Brain"

Link to The Performance Cortex excerpt
Link to Bob Tewksbury’s website

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