Jordan Lawlar’s fifth stop in what was essentially his first professional season ended prematurely on Friday. Playing for the Arizona Fall League’s Salt River Rafters, the 20-year-old shortstop suffered a fractured left scapula after being plunked by a pitch. The injury — the second to put him out of action since he was taken with the sixth overall pick of the 2021 draft — will leave him on the shelf for a reported six to eight weeks. Fourteen months ago, he tore a labrum in the same shoulder after just a pair of games with the Arizona Diamondbacks’ rookie-league entry.
The progress he’s made in the interim is a testament to his talent. Advancing from the Arizona Complex League to Double-A Amarillo, with two stops in-between, Lawlar slashed .303/.401/.509 with a 138 wRC+ and 16 home runs in 459 plate appearances this season. A self-described “pure hitter who likes to just be athletic in the box,” the Dallas-area native is currently No. 42 in our Top 100 Prospects rankings.
Veronica Gajownik knows him well. An outfield and hitting coach in the Diamondbacks system, the former Team USA infielder worked with Lawlar in Amarillo this year, and more recently in the AFL.
“He wants to get better,” said Gajownik, who is on Salt River’s coaching staff. “He has a very open mind, and the determination to do what it takes to get to the big leagues. The effort level is great to see from someone his age.” Read the rest of this entry »
Welcome to Part 2 of my new series, How Did Jose Altuve Hit in the Last 36 Innings? For those of you who missed Part 1, the answer last time was, well, badly enough to write a whole article about it!
Here in Part 2, I’m happy to report that Altuve’s performance over the most recent 36 innings has been upgraded to “still bad, but with reasons for optimism.”
Before we dig in, I should probably mention that Altuve is excellent. His playoff struggles are notable because he’s normally so fantastic at the plate. He posted a 164 wRC+ this year, fourth among qualified batters. He’s a great hitter. Now let’s talk about why he’s not hitting so great right now. Read the rest of this entry »
Take a look at the Astros’ bullpen in the ALCS against the Yankees. Do you see anything odd about it? And no, this isn’t an article complaining about the fact that they rostered nine relievers in a seven-game series with multiple off days. Rather, it’s the fact that all nine relievers are right-handed that sets them apart from every other playoff team this season, and nearly every playoff team in recent memory:
This trend was largely true during the regular season as well. Despite leading the majors in bullpen ERA and FIP, just 48.1 of their 495.1 relief innings came from southpaws. Back in April, their Opening Day roster included 10 relievers, only one of whom, Blake Taylor, is a lefty. Taylor pitched just 19 innings with an average ERA, but walked more batters than he struck out. In June, he was placed on the IL with an elbow injury and pitched the rest of the season in Triple-A after he recovered. Aside from a cup of coffee from rookie Parker Mushinski, the remaining lefty innings came from deadline acquisition Will Smith, who posted a solid 3.27 ERA and 2.66 FIP in 22 innings down the stretch. But all three have been absent from their playoff rosters so far, with the Astros opting for right-handed pitchers instead.
This dearth of lefties clearly hasn’t inhibited the Astros’ success – through seven games, their bullpen has allowed just three runs in 33 innings, including a dozen scoreless frames to clinch their final victory of the ALDS. So how have the Astros dealt with their opponents’ left-handed hitters? For starters, it helps that no one they’ve had to face so far has been particularly vulnerable to lefties. Hitters in the opposing Division Series like Josh Naylor are great against righties and unplayable against lefties, but that hasn’t been the case with the Astros’ opponents so far:
Yankees/Mariners Lefty Hitters’ Platoon Splits in 2022
While hitters like Rizzo and Carpenter don’t have career reverse splits like they did in 2022, they’ve only been marginally worse against left-handed pitching in their time in the big leagues. In other words, neither team had hitters that might inspire a manager to call on a lefty specialist. But the Astros’ effectiveness against lefties doesn’t just come from the tendencies of the hitters they’ve faced. Houston’s relievers are also well equipped to neutralize both left- and right-handed hitters. Consider the 2022 platoon splits of each reliever on the roster:
Seven of the nine righties in Houston’s bullpen actually fared better against lefties than righties in 2022, and the only one with a pronounced weakness against lefties – Martinez – has yet to appear in a postseason game. Lefties slashed just .207/.269/.341 against this group during the regular season, posting a .270 wOBA compared to the .284 wOBA right-handed hitters produced against them. Both of these numbers are significantly better than the league as a whole – across the majors, right-handed relievers allowed a .310 wOBA to lefties and a .307 wOBA to righties in 2022. But the fact that the Astros’ top five relievers by innings pitched all ran reverse splits during the regular season is particularly important, and shows the value in relievers who can deal with any type of hitter, especially in the era of the three-batter minimum.
Now, we know that reverse splits can sometimes be unreliable in a small, single-season sample. But in addition to the fact that four of these pitchers – Pressly, Montero, Urquidy, and Abreu – have career reverse splits over a multi-season stretch, it’s still valuable to consider the methods the Astros use to make their relievers so effective against potent lefties.
Much of the Astros’ success in opposite-handed matchups comes from their relievers changing their pitch mix depending on the handedness of the batter. One way that pitchers attempt to limit their platoon splits is by throwing multiple fastballs. Cutters and four-seam fastballs tend to be close to platoon-neutral, but the horizontal run of a sinker often directs the ball into the barrel of opposite-handed hitters, giving it one of the largest splits of any pitch type. Three members of the Astros’ bullpen – Montero, Neris, and Martinez – threw both a four-seamer and a sinker during the regular season. The trio combined to throw 582 sinkers, just 13 of which were thrown to a left-handed hitter. While many pitchers with multiple fastball types throw more sinkers to same-handed opponents, few take it to the extreme levels these Astros do.
Sinkers aren’t the only pitch types that can generate platoon splits, though. Sliders can generate splits just as large – we know that sweepers are ridiculously effective against same-handed hitters, but can be risky against opposite-handed hitters for the same reason sinkers are – with their horizontal movement moving towards the opponent’s barrel. Sharper sliders with more gyroscopic spin also run platoon splits, albeit less extreme ones. The Astros’ bullpen throws a variety of different slider shapes – Garcia and Martinez dominate the horizontal movement charts, while Stanek’s moves like a bullet, and others like Pressly and Abreu have a more hybrid shape, with high marks in both sweep and velocity.
All nine Astros relievers throw a slider, ranging in frequency from Neris’ 6.6% usage rate to Abreu’s 44% clip. Combined with a few of them also throwing sinkers, everyone in this bullpen has a clear plan to get righties out. But how can they succeed with a lefty in the box? Offspeed pitches tend to run the most neutral, or even reverse platoon splits, and it’s no surprise that the Astros selectively throw their offspeed selections to lefties. These offspeed pitches consist of splitters from Neris and Stanek — it’s each pitcher’s most-used secondary — and changeups from nearly everyone else. When looking at their offspeed and slider usage in tandem, we can see very stark differences based on the batter’s handedness:
Astros Relievers Secondary Pitch Usage
Name
Slider% vs. L
Slider% vs. R
Offspeed% vs. L
Offspeed% vs. R
Ryan Pressly
29.5%
46.2%
2.2%
4.5%
Rafael Montero
2.6%
21.4%
35.1%
4.3%
Héctor Neris
1.4%
11.4%
45.1%
17.7%
Ryne Stanek
1.4%
30.1%
34.6%
15.2%
Bryan Abreu
35.5%
52.5%
0.6%
0.0%
Hunter Brown
8.5%
20.1%
3.7%
0.0%
Seth Martinez
6.3%
44.5%
31.2%
1.3%
Luis Garcia
1.5%
14.6%
19.6%
1.2%
José Urquidy
0.6%
24.4%
23.9%
7.2%
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
In 2022, right-handed pitchers threw sliders to right-handed opponents about 28% of the time, as compared to just 13.6% for lefty hitters. In other words, righties roughly doubled their slider usage in situations with the platoon advantage. For changeups and splitters, there’s an even larger difference. Righty hurlers used their offspeed stuff 18.4% of the time against lefties, but largely shelved those offerings against righties, dropping their usage to just 6.9%. The Astros have taken this to the extreme, almost completely ignoring their unfavorable pitches in certain matchups. Montero, Neris, Stanek, Garcia, and Urquidy use their sliders as real weapons against righties, but throw them under 3% of the time against lefties. On the other hand, Montero, Martinez, and Garcia throw tons of slowballs to lefties but almost completely ignore them when their sinkers and sliders get the job done. Replacing sliders with changeups and vice versa is far from a novel concept, but the Astros’ optimization of their relievers’ pitch usage is on another level. Of course, it helps that they don’t have to face the order multiple times (unless they’re Luis Garcia), but they’ve still managed to collectively run reverse splits as a unit all season.
While Houston has good reason to put their trust in their righties, Smith is still waiting in the wings and should be available if the Astros want to add him to their World Series roster as a specialist. It’s pretty clear he shouldn’t face a string of righties – his .362 wOBA allowed to them matches the full season performance of Carlos Correa – but is there a use for him in a situation with two outs, a lefty up, and no great pinch-hitting options, possibly in the early innings? Smith had a very solid .278 wOBA allowed to lefties in the regular season, though that actually makes him worse than all of the Astros’ high-leverage arms, only besting lower-leverage relievers like Martinez, Garcia, and Urquidy.
Let’s consider Philadelphia’s roster for a second. Houston didn’t sweat the lack of left-handed relievers on the roster the past two series because the Yankees and Mariners didn’t have any lefties who were dangerous with the platoon advantage and pedestrian without it. What about the lefty hitters on the Phillies? In addition to measuring the magnitude of their platoon splits, we should also look at their ability to handle the pitches being thrown at them. Smith is a slider-heavy lefty, especially against fellow southpaws — he throws them about two-thirds of the time. If they decide to leave Smith off the roster and continue to lean on their righties, the Phillies will likely see a lot of changeups and splitters. Using Statcast’s run values, we can measure exactly how well each hitter performed against a given pitch type to see whether the Astros would rather go with Smith or a righty against any of these hitters:
Schwarber and Marsh had sizable splits during the regular season, and both find far more success against right-handed changeups than left-handed sliders. However, in late-game situations, the Phillies have right-handed outfielder Matt Vierling, who could hit should the Astros use a lefty. Vierling has started over Marsh against lefties, and has come in for Schwarber as a defensive substitute. The red-hot Harper has a platoon split of his own, but handles breaking pitches from lefties quite well, while Stott actually ran reverse splits during the regular season. With Vierling available off the bench and the three-batter minimum to contend with, it’s hard to see a case where Smith would clearly be better than someone on the current roster. However, three relievers – Garcia, Martinez, and Urquidy – didn’t appear in a single ALCS game. While Garcia and Urquidy are likely there to provide length and potentially an emergency start, Smith could replace Martinez as the ninth reliever in the unlikely event that his services are needed. I don’t think there has ever been a bullpen with six relievers that allowed wOBAs of .240 or lower against the batter handedness they should be weaker against, and the fact that we can’t find a clear and likely use case for a lefty specialist on such a large roster is a testament to this staff’s complete control over left-handed hitters. The Astros are four wins away from a World Series championship, and the fact that they’re dominant even in areas where teams aren’t meant to be is a huge reason why.
Every year I have to remind myself that Gold Glove snubs aren’t worth getting worked up about. It’s exceedingly difficult to measure defense objectively, especially in a single season’s worth of games. It’s even harder for voters to make judgments about players’ defensive capabilities when they only watch them play a handful of games each year. Beyond that, the Gold Gloves have gone to “unworthy” players so often before that it’s foolish to be bothered by one more bad choice. Sometimes the wrong guy wins the Gold Glove, and that’s just how it goes. The players know it, the fans know it, and we all go on living.
Yet here I am, about to spend the next thousand or so words rattling on about how Jorge Mateo was snubbed for a Gold Glove. Because as troublesome as it is to evaluate defense, we do have some pretty great statistics available to help accomplish that task. And while Gold Gloves are awarded to undeserving fielders almost every season, they tend to go to those who need them the least: established stars with impressive offensive numbers. This year, the metrics make an ironclad case for Mateo at shortstop, and he would benefit from the recognition more than any of the three finalists. So against my better judgment, I’m here to write about a Gold Glove snub. If Rawlings won’t honor his dazzling defense, I’m going to have to do it myself. Read the rest of this entry »
When Juan Soto was announced as a finalist for the Gold Glove this year, I was perplexed. To say that the right fielder struggled with his defense this season would be an understatement. As recently as Game 2 of the NLCS, he was still making (or, failing to make) plays like this:
So I turned to Rawlings’ official website to get a better understanding of how Gold Gloves are won. In order to qualify for a Gold Glove, infielders and outfielders must have played in the field for at least 698 innings through their teams’ first 138 games. Maybe Soto grades out better in this subsample. In the absence of custom date ranges for advanced fielding statistics, I compared Soto to the 76 other players who were in the outfield for at least 698 innings on the season. Here is where he ranked:
Location: Los Angeles, CA Status: Full Time Reports to: Director, Baseball Strategy and Information
Summary:
The Baseball Strategy and Information team of the Los Angeles Dodgers is responsible for supporting the Major League Coaching Staff and Baseball Operations leadership group with data and information needed for strategic decision making. As a Junior Analyst, you will work with other members of the Baseball Strategy and Information team to build reports and visualizations to communicate insights clearly and concisely to stakeholders.
Job Functions:
Develop and deliver reports to the Major League Coaching Staff and Baseball Operations leadership group in a timely manner
Build new tools and improve existing ones, to optimize workflows and quality of information
Utilize statistical tools and metrics to analyze the Dodgers and upcoming opponents
Complete ad-hoc research as requested, summarizing key findings
Perform other related duties as assigned
Basic Requirements/Qualifications:
Bachelor’s degree in a STEM field (or equivalent experience)
Experience with R or Python
Familiarity with SQL, Git, and cloud-based computing concepts
Knowledge of sabermetric research and principles
Ability to work a varied schedule including evenings, weekends, and holidays
LOS ANGELES DODGERS LLC is firmly committed to providing equal opportunity for all qualified applicants from every race, creed, and background. The Organization is also firmly committed to complying with all applicable laws and governmental regulations at the state and local levels which prohibit discrimination.
LOS ANGELES DODGERS LLC considers all applicants without regard to national origin, race, color, religion, age, sex, sexual orientation, disability, military status, citizenship status, pregnancy or related medical conditions, marital status, ancestry-ethnicity, or any other characteristic protected by applicable state or federal civil rights law. The Immigration Reform and Control Act require that the Organization obtain documentation from every individual who is employed which verifies identity and authorizes their right to work in the United States.
COVID-19 Policy:
In accordance with the Los Angeles Dodgers’ policies relating to COVID-19, all newly-hired employees are required to be fully vaccinated and boosted against COVID-19 prior to commencing employment. Applicants who receive a conditional offer of employment will be required to provide proof of vaccination and first/primary booster prior to their first day of employment. Applicants who decline to be vaccinated and/or boosted because of a qualifying medical condition or a sincerely held religious belief may be considered for an exemption from these requirements.
Description:
The Los Angeles Angels are seeking a Developer to join the Baseball Operations’ Baseball Systems Development team. This position will focus on the development and maintenance of the Angels’ internal baseball information system and all of the data flows that support it.
Responsibilities:
Design, develop and maintain the front end of the Angels’ internal baseball information system
Develop and maintain ETL processes for loading data from multiple sources using a variety of formats (APIs, JSON, XML, CSVs, etc.)
Identify, diagnose, and resolve data quality issues
Collaborate with the IT department to address needs related to Baseball Systems department
Remain up-to-date with respect to industry best practices and new technologies and how they relate to the club’s needs
Work on ad-hoc baseball related projects as needed
Qualifications:
Bachelor’s Degree in Computer Science, Engineering or a related field of study strongly preferred.
Programming experience with C#, JavaScript, Python, or other programming languages
Experience with modern database technologies and SQL
Preferred: Cloud experience
Preferred: Experience building and supporting ETL processes
Physical Demands:
Ability to frequently sit for extended periods of time
Ability to occasionally work in inclement weather (when in stadium)
Ability to traverse from office to stadium frequently
Ability to occasionally lift up to 20 lbs.
The above statements are intended to describe the general nature and level of work being performed by individuals assigned to this position. They are not intended to be an exhaustive list of all duties, responsibilities, and skills required of personnel so classified.
Please note that any job offer is contingent upon your providing verification that you have been fully vaccinated (at least 14 days have passed since receiving final dose of vaccine) against COVID-19. Job offers will be withdrawn (regardless of whether you have already signed) if this condition is not satisfied. Unless and until this step has been completed, you should not resign your current employment, otherwise alter your employment status, or alter any personal circumstances in reliance on a conditional offer. Angels Baseball is committed to providing equal opportunity, and does not discriminate on the basis of any characteristic protected by law. If there is a medical or religious reason you believe you cannot comply with this requirement, please discuss with Human Resources if/when you are offered a position.
The Angels believe that diversity contributes to a more enriched collective perspective and a better decision-making process. All qualified applicants will receive consideration for employment without regard to race, color, religion, gender, gender identity or expression, sexual orientation, national origin, genetics, disability, age, or veteran status, or any other characteristic protected by law.
Title: Player Development Analyst Department: Baseball Operations Reports to: Director, Baseball Development Job Classification: Non-Exempt City/State: Mesa, AZ
Job Summary
The Oakland A’s are hiring for a full-time Player Development Analyst to assist the Player Development Department. This position will handle multiple responsibilities, including building and reporting new statistical models and findings, assist in producing player improvement plans, and serve as a resource for the Player Development and Sports Science staffs. This position will also assist and in operating and producing analysis for various tracking technologies. This position will be primarily based out of Mesa, AZ.
Key Responsibilities
Produce statistical analysis and reporting for Player Development coaching staff.
Conduct research projects for various groups within Player Development (Strength & Conditioning, Sports Science).
Collaborate with the research and development team on statistical modeling techniques and projects with a focus on Player Development.
Assist with the capture and analysis of ball and player tracking technologies.
Assist the staff with ad-hoc analysis and reporting.
Other duties as assigned.
Qualifications/Requirements
Undergraduate degree in math, computer science, economics, statistics or related quantitative field.
Strong proficiency in SQL and R is required.
Experience Microsoft Excel is a plus.
Strong organizational skills and attention to detail.
Self-starter with an ability to handle multiple tasks and responsibilities.
Excellent communication skills including written and verbal; ability to present ideas clearly and concisely.
Playing background (baseball or softball) at the collegiate level or above a definite plus
Ability to work flexible hours including nights, weekends, and holidays
Some travel required (California, affiliate cities, or elsewhere)
COVID 19 Consideration
All Oakland A’s employees are required to be fully vaccinated against Covid-19 and must provide documentation of complete vaccination status as part of the pre-boarding process. Exceptions are available only for those who need an accommodation.
Equal Opportunity Employer
We are an equal opportunity employer, and all qualified applicants will receive consideration for employment without regard to race, color, religion, national origin, sex, sexual orientation, age, disability, gender identity, marital or veteran status, or any other protected class.
Title: Advanced Scouting Analyst Department: Baseball Operations Reports to: Director, Baseball Development Job Classification: Non-Exempt City/State: Oakland, CA
Job Summary
The Oakland A’s are hiring for a full-time Advanced Scouting Analyst to assist the Advance Scouting Department. This position crosses into the intersection of several fields (Baseball Operations, Player Development, Video, Research & Analytics). The ideal candidate will seamlessly integrate into the advance work process, aiding the coaching and video support staff in pre-game and game tasks for the duration of the 2023 season. This position will be primarily based out of Oakland, CA, but will require extensive travel with the Major League club.
Key Responsibilities
Assist in pre-game preparation and assignments for coaching and advance staff
Perform ad-hoc queries for coaching and video staff, and front office as needed
Help chart, film, and clip early work and game video and data feeds
Navigate through public and proprietary data sources for strategic insights
Perform other duties as assigned
Qualifications/Requirements
Degree from accredited college or university and/or equivalent experience.
Demonstrated quantitative background, either by degree or work sample (SQL, R, Python, Tableau, or other programming language)
Excellent verbal communication and problem solve IT or other technical issues
Proficient in Microsoft Office (Word, Excel, and Powerpoint)
Strong organizational skills and attention to detail
Playing background (baseball or softball) at the collegiate level or above a definite plus
Ability to work flexible hours including nights, weekends, and holidays
Some travel required (Arizona or elsewhere)
COVID 19 Consideration
All Oakland A’s employees are required to be fully vaccinated against Covid-19 and must provide documentation of complete vaccination status as part of the pre-boarding process. Exceptions are available only for those who need an accommodation.
Equal Opportunity Employer
We are an equal opportunity employer, and all qualified applicants will receive consideration for employment without regard to race, color, religion, national origin, sex, sexual orientation, age, disability, gender identity, marital or veteran status, or any other protected class.
Title: Junior Analyst Department: Baseball Operations Reports to: Director, Research & Analytics Job Classification: Non-Exempt City/State: Oakland, CA
Job Summary
The Oakland A’s are hiring for a full-time Junior Analyst to assist the Baseball Operations Department. This position will handle multiple responsibilities, including building and reporting new statistical models and findings, as well as research to support all aspects of Baseball Operations in decision-making processes. This position will also handle and operate and provide analysis for various tracking technologies. This position will be primarily based out of Oakland, CA.
Key Responsibilities
Produce statistical analysis and reporting for the front office and coaching staff.
Conduct research projects for various departments within Baseball Operations.
Collaborate with the research and development team on statistical modeling techniques and projects.
Assist with the capture and analysis of ball and player tracking technologies.
Assist the staff with ad-hoc analysis and reporting.
Other duties as assigned.
Qualifications/Requirements
Undergraduate degree in math, computer science, economics, statistics or related quantitative field and/or equivalent experience.
Strong proficiency in SQL and R is required.
Experience Microsoft Excel is a plus.
Strong organizational skills and attention to detail.
Self-starter with an ability to handle multiple tasks and responsibilities.
Excellent communication skills including written and verbal; ability to present ideas clearly and concisely.
Playing background (baseball or softball) at the collegiate level or above a definite plus
Ability to work flexible hours including nights, weekends, and holidays
Some travel required (Arizona or elsewhere)
COVID 19 Consideration
All Oakland A’s employees are required to be fully vaccinated against Covid-19 and must provide documentation of complete vaccination status as part of the pre-boarding process. Exceptions are available only for those who need an accommodation.
Equal Opportunity Employer
We are an equal opportunity employer, and all qualified applicants will receive consideration for employment without regard to race, color, religion, national origin, sex, sexual orientation, age, disability, gender identity, marital or veteran status, or any other protected class.
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Ben’s baseball Facebook friend recommendations, the Phillies’ odds against the Astros in the World Series, Kyle Schwarber’s mechanical bull ride, a hidden perk of the Astros’ pitching depth, whether we judge managers too much by their rings, the career and legacy of Dave Dombrowski, the Marlins hiring Skip Schumaker as manager, the length of games this postseason, and Shohei Ohtani’s old team drafting another two-way player, followed by Stat Blasts (1:10:37) about when the AL/NL’s cumulative HR total overtook its cumulative SB total, a pitcher pinch running for the DH, and George Springer and the most hits before a first pinch hit, plus a Past Blast from 1921.
Sorry for the Shakespearean title; the playoffs make me feel overly dramatic every year. This time, I was inspired by the markedly different approaches of the San Diego Padres and Philadelphia Phillies, who traded blows for five exciting games. The Padres (avatar: Juan Soto) work the count and take walks. The Phillies (avatars: Nick Castellanos and Bryce Harper) sit dead red and swing from the heels. Styles make fights, to borrow a saying from a dying sport, and this one was dramatic.
It got me to wondering: how different were these two approaches, really? It certainly felt like the Padres were watching plenty of hittable first pitches fly by while the Phillies swung at breaking balls in the dirt, but that’s based on my sentiment while watching the game, sentiment that was surely informed by both my pre-existing biases and the broadcasters repeatedly mentioning the disparity throughout the series. Read the rest of this entry »
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