Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley continue their celebration of the 10th anniversary of Effectively Wild by bringing on former cohost Jeff Sullivan and Most Frequent Guest (for now) Grant Brisbee to banter about Jeff’s job with the Rays and draft their favorite baseball stories from the past 10 years (plus a Past Blast from 1878).
Audio intro: Joel Plaskett Emergency, “Old Friends” Audio outro: Willie Nelson With Waylon Jennings, “Old Friends”
Even for a player with six previous All-Star selections to his name, Paul Goldschmidt is having a career year. The 34-year-old first baseman finished the first half of the 2022 season leading the National League in all three slash-stat categories (.330/.414/.590) as well as wRC+ (184). He’s deservedly the starting first baseman for the NL squad in Tuesday night’s All-Star Game, and he provides a great point of entry when it comes to the players who have helped their causes toward eventual enshrinement in the Baseball Hall of Fame.
This may not seem like an obvious time to check in on such players, but July is quite the logjam when it comes to the baseball calendar. In addition to the All-Star Game and its high-profile auxiliary events (the Futures Game and the Home Run Derby), we now have the amateur draft and the run-up to the trade deadline, even if the actual date of the latter has slipped to August 2 this year. Right in the middle of this is the Hall of Fame’s Induction Weekend, which kicks off this Friday and culminates in Sunday’s ceremony. It’s a time that I get a lot of questions about active players vying for future elections, and in the interest of providing a one-stop shop, here we are.
I’m punting on pitching for this installment as well. I owe readers a couple more entries in the S-JAWS series I was working on during the lockout, and when I get back to that, I’ll look a bit more closely at Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, and Max Scherzer, all of whom have already cleared the standards. At some point I’ll also take a look at the trio of closers — Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen, and Craig Kimbrel — who have each wandered into the weeds at a crucial time.
That still leaves plenty of players to discuss, even if they’re clustered in just five of the eight remaining field positions. For this exercise, I will be referencing Baseball Reference’s version of WAR for season and career totals, my JAWS metric, as well as the ZiPS rest-of-season projections created by Dan Szymborski, since one of the goals here is to give an idea of where these players will stand at the end of the season rather than crunching the numbers as if the season has ended. Read the rest of this entry »
All-Star Week may be a relaxing midseason respite for most players, but for front offices, it’s business as usual. For the Padres, it may be a high-stakes one, as they’re reportedly closing in on a long-term deal with their best starting pitcher, Joe Musgrove. Without a deal, he hits free agency for the first time in his career, and there’s not much that teams like less than being drawn into a bidding war over their ace.
The starting pitchers the Padres have acquired over the last few years have mixed in many lows with their highs, but Musgrove has been rock-solid in mustard-and-brown, putting up a 2.90 ERA, a 3.48 FIP, and a hair under six WAR in 47 starts since coming over from the Pirates. During last season’s late-year debacle that saw San Diego in desperate enough straits to sign Jake Arrieta as a free agent and throw him into the rotation, Musgrove was a rare example of solidity, with only one truly awful start in the last month of the season. While he’s lost some strikeouts from 2021, he’s also bid adieu to some of the walks — not an unpleasant tradeoff, given that he ranks fifth among qualifying starters in lowest average exit velocity at 86.7 mph.
Fewer walks and strikeouts have allowed Musgrove to get through innings slightly more efficiently. As a result, he’s averaged almost a full inning per start more than last year while throwing just three more pitches per outing. Getting through the sixth more often has resulted in his quality start percentage shooting up from 48% to 88%; among MLB qualifiers, only Framber Valdez has racked up a higher rate. Musgrove’s five-inning loss to the Rockies last Wednesday was the first time he failed to finish six innings this season. This durability and consistency are crucial to the Padres, given their experience last season when they tried to keep the rotation’s inning count low in the early going, resulting in an exhausted bullpen breaking down by July.
With the trade deadline fast approaching, getting some certainty about Musgrove’s future with the club has quite a bit of value. The Padres seem likely to add a bat, and getting a better idea of how many pitchers they’ll need to replace over the next few years should provide some guidance on which prospects they can afford to give up. Sean Manaea and Mike Clevinger are also free agents after this season, and Blake Snell and Yu Darvish will be after 2023, so getting Musgrove inked for most of the rest of the decade takes at least one problem off their plate.
So, what kind of deal is Musgrove likely looking at? Let’s fire up ZiPS and run him through the mathematical wringer. Read the rest of this entry »
Unless you count Stephen Strasburg’s much-hyped debut, a top pitching prospect’s first start usually doesn’t have much to write home about. While talented, the player in question is understandably an unfinished product who’s facing big league hitters for the first time, in addition to fighting off nerves and perhaps pressure to perform. If you’re looking for some razzle-dazzle, it’s best to wait out a season of adjustments, maybe two. I mean, just look at how Shane McClanahan is taking off this season!
At a glance, Max Meyer’s debut is emblematic of the rookie pitcher’s all-too-common plight. Sure, he did strike out five and hold his own through five innings, but things quickly unraveled afterward. In the top of the sixth, the Phillies got to see Meyer for a third time, which resulted in a home run, walk, and a double. Richard Bleier then took over, but the lefty allowed both runners to score, ballooning Meyer’s earned run total to five. You never got the sense that Meyer was in control of the Phillies, and you couldn’t be blamed for thinking he was ill-prepared.
But c’mon, FanGraphs doesn’t just stop at the box score. From a different angle, Meyer’s debut is one of the more striking ones in recent memory. Read the rest of this entry »
When he was first featured here at FanGraphs three years ago, I wrote that Nestor Cortes “barely registers a blip on the national radar.” With his multiple windups in mind, I called the then-24-year-old southpaw “probably the most unique member of the 2019 New York Yankees.”
A lot has changed since that time. Cortes is still unique — the funkiness and deceptive deliveries remain part of his M.O. — but he’s otherwise a much different pitcher. He’s also become a household name. Traded to Seattle in November 2019, Cortes returned to New York in free agency prior to last season and has since been remade into one of the top starters in the American League. A first-time All-Star with a 2.63 ERA and 99 strikeouts in 95-and-two-thirds innings, Cortes attacks hitters with a different arsenal than the one he employed as an obscure reliever.
How has Cortes evolved, and just as importantly, can he continue to thrive if he doesn’t evolve further? Yankees pitching coach Matt Blake addressed those questions when the team visited Fenway Park earlier this month.
———
David Laurila: You’ve obviously been asked about Nestor Cortes numerous times already this season. That said, why has he been so good?
Matt Blake: “When he first started going last year, the league didn’t really know who he was. I mean, they knew of Nestor, but they hadn’t necessarily seen this version of him, where there’s a little bit more velocity [and] the fastball has kind of a true riding profile, one that’s a little bit closer to cut than run. And then the cutter off of that creates a really tough visual for hitters to identify. He’d also added the sweeper slider to be able to slow guys down and steal some strikes. Read the rest of this entry »
What’s 4,700 or so feet of elevation between friends? Where last year’s Home Run Derby was held in the majors’ most homer-conducive venue, mile-high Coors Field, this year’s event will be held in Dodger Stadium, which is an estimated 522 feet above sea level. The difference is hardly trivial when it comes to the hard-hit fly balls that are the stuff of Home Run Derbies; based on league-wide data from 2021 and ’22, those hit with exit velocities of 95 mph or higher traveled an average of 31 fewer feet at Dodger Stadium (361 feet) than at Coors Field (392 feet).
The difference may not matter to two-time defending champion Pete Alonso, who won at Progressive Field with its 653-foot elevation in 2019, as well as last year at Coors. In beating out upstart Trey Mancini last summer, Alonso became the fourth two-time winner in Derby history, joining Ken Griffey Jr. (1994, ’98–99), Prince Fielder (2009, ’12) and Yoenis Céspedes (2013–14). This year, he has a chance not only to tie Griffey but also to become the first player to win three in a row. Three-Peat, Three-Pete — we’ll never hear the end of it if he wins the event, which airs at 8 pm ET on ESPN on Monday night.
Given his experience with the format, Alonso has to be considered the favorite from among the eight participants. Of the four previous champions who are still active, Bryce Harper (2018 winner) is on the injured list, Giancarlo Stanton (2016) and Aaron Judge (2017) both declined the opportunity to participate, and Robinson Canó (2011) is far removed from his power-hitting days. Only two active runners-up, Kyle Schwarber (2018) and Albert Pujols (2003) are here; Mancini (2021), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (2019), Miguel Sanó (2017), Joc Pederson (2015), and Nelson Cruz (2009) are not. Neither are Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout, or Fernando Tatis Jr., for various reasons. While it would be great to have any of the aforementioned players participating, the contest is a physically demanding one, and many of those stars are already banged up if not out entirely. Still, even with just one contestant returning from last year’s field — Juan Soto, who lost to Alonso in the semifinal round — it’s a compelling group of sluggers.
I’ll get to the participants shortly, but first, the format, which is along the lines of what has been used for the event since 2015, a set of changes that has done wonders for the watchability of this spectacle. The competition will be an eight-man, single elimination bracket that uses timed rounds of three minutes apiece for the first two rounds and two minutes for the final round. Each competitor gets an additional 30-second bonus, plus potentially a second 30-second bonus if he hits a home run with a projected distance of at least 440 feet (this was increased to 475 feet for Coors). Each player is allowed to call one 45-second timeout for use during regulation time; it can’t be used during bonus time. The lower-seeded player in each round goes first, and the round will end in the equivalent of a walk-off if the higher seed surpasses his total. If two contestants are tied after the bonus time, they each get a 60-second round with no bonus time or timeouts, and if they’re still tied after that, they each get rounds of three swings apiece until a winner is decided. The winner of the Derby will take home $1 million of the $2.5 million total pot.
The lower altitude isn’t the only factor that could reduce home run totals in this year’s contest. On a per-game basis, home run rates are down to their lowest levels since 2015; this year’s 1.08 homers per team per game is down 4.6% from last year and 22.9% from 2019, the year that homers peaked. A deader baseball with a higher coefficient of drag, and the league-wide use of humidors, which normalize the bounciness of the ball based upon its water content, are the apparent culprits. As a result, fly ball distances have decreased, both on a league-wide basis and at Dodger Stadium, the latter to an even greater degree. Here’s a comparison of all fly balls hit at 95 mph or higher:
Hard-hit fly balls around the majors are averaging 365 feet, down from 367 last year and a peak of 375 from 2019. At Dodger Stadium, they’re averaging 359 feet, down from 362 last year and a high of 373 feet in 2019.
As far as the dimensions go, Dodger Stadium is symmetrical, measuring 330 feet down the foul lines, 375 feet to true left-center and right-center, and 395 feet to dead center field. The outfield fences are eight feet high from bullpen to bullpen, then drop to 55 inches high in the corners, from the bullpens to the foul poles. Despite its symmetry, the park has recently favored righties when it comes to home runs, with a 107 park factor compared to 102 for lefties. Based on data since the start of the 2021 season, righties have a 14.7% rate of home runs per fly ball, lefties a rate of 13.1%.
Here’s the official bracket:
And here’s a look at the field with some relevant stats:
All statistics through July 17. EVF (exit velocity on fly balls), Avg HR (average home-run distance) and 440 (total of home runs projected for at least 440 feet) via Baseball Savant. * = Bats left-handed. # = Switch hitter.
We head into the All-Star break with very little movement in the top five but tons of ups and downs in the middle of these power rankings.
A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), and their starting rotation and bullpen (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by IP share) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. New for this year, I’ve opted to include defense as a component, though it’s weighted less heavily than offense and pitching. Some element of team defense is captured by RA9-, but now that FanGraphs has Statcast’s OAA/RAA available on our leaderboards, I’ve chosen to include that as the defensive component for each team. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.
Tier 1 – The Best of the Best
Team
Record
“Luck”
wRC+
SP-
RP-
RAA
Team Quality
Playoff Odds
Yankees
64-28
-2
121
82
77
8
192
100.0%
Astros
59-32
2
113
87
79
19
190
100.0%
Dodgers
60-30
-3
118
79
82
-1
170
99.9%
The Yankees head into the All-Star break on a high note after scoring 27 runs against the Red Sox on Saturday and Sunday. That smackdown redeemed a week that hadn’t gone all that well before the weekend, with New York’s normally sturdy bullpen blowing two games (and nearly a third) against the Reds and another against the Red Sox. The emergence of Clay Holmes and Michael King has solidified a relief corps that has lost Chad Green and Jonathan Loáisiga to injuries and has had to work around a diminished Aroldis Chapman. With Luis Severino headed to the IL after exiting his start early on Wednesday, a bullpen upgrade probably isn’t the top priority at the trade deadline, but the Yankees definitely need to get their relievers in order for the stretch run and the postseason.
The Astros limped into the break a bit after dropping two of three to the A’s over the weekend. They’re hoping that Yordan Alvarez will be ready to be activated from the IL next week once play resumes, because their upcoming schedule looks daunting: a double-header against the Yankees on Thursday before playing the streaking Mariners seven times in two weeks, followed by series against the Red Sox and Guardians.
The Dodgers closed out the first half of the season on a 15–2 run and have opened up a 10-game lead in the NL West. Just a month ago, the Padres were breathing down their necks; now they enjoy the second-largest divisional lead in the majors. The man carrying the club right now? Freddie Freeman, who has collected 16 hits in his last six games, including three homers and five doubles. Read the rest of this entry »
The Nationals are going to trade Juan Soto. Oh, sure, it’s not official yet, but it’s basically official. After he turned down their most recent extension offer, a reported 15-year, $450 million deal, reports emerged that the team was open to dealing him. And with the trade deadline conveniently only weeks away, general manager Mike Rizzo will have no shortage of phone calls to field in the coming days.
In a fortuitous coincidence, I’m currently working on our annual trade value series, so I’ve spent a good deal of time considering Soto’s value. He’s an interesting case, perhaps one without precedent in the trade market. He’s undoubtedly one of the best five or so players in baseball. In a down year, he’s still hitting .250/.405/.497, good for a 152 wRC+. That’s the kind of production that most players would call a career year, and we’re writing about adjustments he can make.
In addition, Soto is no rental. He’s under team control through the 2024 season, and while he’ll command record-breaking arbitration salaries for the next two years, he’ll still be an unbelievable bargain while doing so. Consider: He’s making $17.1 million this year in arbitration and on pace for roughly 5 WAR in a down year. What would teams pay for that production on the open market? Well, the Mets are paying Max Scherzer $43.3 million per year over the next three years, and Soto has out-WAR’ed Scherzer in each of the past three seasons. He’s also only 23, so it’s not as though he’s approaching age-related decline. Read the rest of this entry »
Below is team-by-team analysis of last night’s draft activity. Remember that you can find more detailed scouting reports and tool grades for the players drafted over on The Board.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Pick
Rank
FV
Name
Position
Age
School
Strengths
2
1
60
Druw Jones
CF
18.6
Wesleyan HS (GA)
Everything
34
59
40+
Landon Sims
MIRP
21.5
Mississippi State
Plus FB/SLD combo
43
84
40
Ivan Melendez
1B
22.5
Texas
Elite Raw Power
Arizona got the consensus best player in the draft in Druw Jones, and he stands a chance to help alter the course of their franchise. Folks in the game think drive and determination is a separator when it comes to successfully rehabbing from Tommy John, and if his on-mound presence is any indication, Comp Pick bulldog righty Landon Sims seems to have that. Ivan Melendez has among the most raw power in this draft and was the most outstanding player in college baseball in 2022 after making adjustments that led to fewer strikeouts.
Atlanta Braves
Pick
Rank
FV
Name
Position
Age
School
Strengths
20
38
45
Owen Murphy
SP
18.8
Riverside-Brookfield HS (IL)
FB/CRV, Athleticism
35
39
45
JR Ritchie
SP
19.0
Bainbridge HS (WA)
FB/CRV, Projection
57
120
35+
Cole Phillips
SP
19.1
Boerne HS (TX)
Velocity
76
HM
40
Blake Burkhalter
MIRP
21.8
Auburn
Velo, Plus Cutter
Atlanta had a remarkable first day, taking three high school pitchers and a late-season pop-up college arm. Owen Murphy and JR Ritchie both have prototypical prep pitching profiles as projectable righties with vertically-oriented fastball/breaking ball combinations. Phillips had a huge velo boost this spring, into the upper-90s, then blew out. The Braves will need to polish his secondaries after his TJ rehab. Burkhalter’s stuff was incredible during the College World Series, another “tip-of-the-iceberg” prospect for the Braves. He could end up with three above-average pitches. Part of why he fell is because his delivery features a lot of effort that points to the bullpen. Read the rest of this entry »
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