Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about umpire Pat Hoberg’s unprecedented “perfect game” behind the plate in Game 2 of the World Series, followed by musings on Nolan Arenado opting not to opt out of his contract, the Royals hiring Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro as their new manager, and Rob Manfred’s latest update on the zombie runner, then break down Games 1 and 2 of the World Series, reflect on the folly of predicting sweeps and seven-game series, and provide a Past Blast from 1923. Then (1:17:54) they bring on Umpire Scorecards creator Ethan Singer to explain how he realized an umpire perfect game had occurred, how Hoberg’s umpire perfecto was calculated, Hoberg’s track record, the squishy nature of ump perfection, the concepts of accuracy, expected accuracy, and consistency, the odds of a perfect game occurring, Umpire Scorecards in the robot-umps era, umpiring accuracy and difficulty in the postseason, the rest of the umps in the World Series, and more.

Audio intro: John Cale, “Perfect”
Audio interstitial: Ronnie Wood, “100%”
Audio outro: Kiwi Jr., “Highlights of 100”

Link to Ben on umpire perfect games
Link to Hoberg article
Link to Hoberg’s Twitter scorecard
Link to Hoberg’s website scorecard
Link to Hoberg game video
Link to Bob Wolff Larsen call
Link to Vin Scully Larsen call
Link to MLBTR on Arenado
Link to Jay Jaffe on Arenado
Link to MLBTR on Quatraro
Link to MLBTR on the White Sox search
Link to Shakeia Taylor EW episode
Link to study on manager demographics
Link to Shakeia on manager demographics
Link to Rob on manager demographics
Link to James Wagner managers thread
Link to zombie runner comments
Link to 2020 zombie runner survey
Link to The Athletic zombie runner survey
Link to FG zombie runner survey
Link to ZiPS postseason odds
Link to FG WS Game 1 story
Link to FG WS Game 2 story
Link to Jaffe on Verlander in the WS
Link to Posnanski on on Verlander in G1
Link to post on Díaz’s non-HBP
Link to FG post on starters in relief
Link to Valdez suspicion story
Link to Maldonado/Pujols bats
Link to Silver Slugger finalists
Link to Ben on predicting sweeps
Link to Joe’s newsletter
Link to MLB.com WS predictions
Link to ESPN WS predictions
Link to The Athletic WS predictions
Link to CBS Sports WS predictions
Link to 1923 story source
Link to SABR on radio broadcasts
Link to article on televised World Series
Link to Jacob Pomrenke’s website
Link to Jacob Pomrenke on Twitter
Link to Ethan’s first EW interview
Link to Umpire Scorecards leaderboard
Link to World Series umpire lineup
Link to MLB’s no-hitter redefinition
Link to support Umpire scorecards
Link to Ethan’s personal website
Link to Ben in 2014 on postseason umps
Link to Ben on MLB ump evaluations
Link to 2015 article on ump improvement
Link to 2016 article on ump improvement
Link to study on umpire age
Link to umps and high leverage study
Link to EW on umpire decision fatigue
Link to Baumann on rainout implications
Link to NYT umpire interactive

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All day, the weather radar predicted that the skies would open at a particularly inconvenient time for the Phillies and Astros. While MLB waited as long as it could to see if the wind shifted, by 7 p.m. local time, it was clear the weather would not cooperate. (Rain in late October in the Mid-Atlantic region? Whoever could have foreseen such a thing?) As such, Game 3 of the World Series has been postponed 24 hours, with better weather ahead; the nighttime forecasts for Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday are for clear skies and temperatures in the 50s and 60s. Ideal Fall Classic weather, in other words.

Game 3 of the #WorldSeries has officially been postponed. Here is an updated look at the Series schedule:
– Game 3: Tuesday
– Game 4: Wednesday
– Game 5: Thursday
– Travel Day: Friday
– Game 6 (If Necessary): Saturday
– Game 7 (If Necessary): Sunday pic.twitter.com/a61nzKUBM5

— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) October 31, 2022

Moreover, if neither team sweeps all three games in Philadelphia, the scheduled off day between Games 5 and 6 will remain intact. That pushes a potential Game 6 to Saturday night and Game 7 to Sunday. Read the rest of this entry »

Some kids dream about playing in the World Series and getting the big hit. Fewer kids, one imagines, dream about playing in the World Series and taking the big hit, but that small group might include Aledmys Díaz.

In Game 1 of the World Series, Díaz came to the plate with two on in the bottom of the 10th inning. After a wild pitch moved both runners into scoring position, David Robertson hung a curveball high and inside, and Díaz did his best to thrust his shoulder into the path of the ball, barely missing. The next pitch wasn’t a hanger, but that didn’t stop Díaz from sticking his Kevlar-covered elbow into the ball and trotting off toward first base. Read the rest of this entry »

There were a few times during the ALCS when I glanced up at a game and mistook Chas McCormick for Jose Altuve. Why? Both he and McCormick don’t set their feet in the box like a typical hitter would. Instead, they have distinct foot placement which aligns their front shoulder with the right fielder instead of the typical alignment with the center fielder. In McCormick’s case, it’s more pronounced than that of Altuve. And that’s not just in the setup; it includes the extent to which the Astros outfielder strides closed as well.

Every hitter, player, human, etc. has a different body. Depending on one’s body and its strengths and limitations, different adjustments need to be made to get the most out of that body when it comes to swinging a baseball bat. You may think it’s weird or ugly, but that doesn’t matter. McCormick’s closed setup and stride unlock a part of his game that he otherwise would not have. During the ALCS, I progressively came to realize he is a dangerous hitter when he drives the ball to the opposite field. If you pitch to his strengths that play into his inside-out bat path, then he can get lift on the ball and pepper the short porch in Minute Maid Park. Read the rest of this entry »

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent seasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract crowdsourcing project, with the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2022-23 free-agent market.

In recent years, we’ve added a few features to these ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor-league contract, or won’t receive one at all. And new this year, if there is a player option, team option, or opt out in a player’s contract, you’ll be able to indicate whether you think he will remain with his current team or become a free agent. Numbers are prorated to full season where noted. The projected WAR figures are from the first cut of the 2023 Steamer600 projections.

Below are ballots for six of this year’s free agents — in this case, another group of outfielders. Read the rest of this entry »

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent seasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract crowdsourcing project, with the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2022-23 free-agent market.

In recent years, we’ve added a few features to these ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor-league contract, or won’t receive one at all. And new this year, if there is a player option, team option, or opt out in a player’s contract, you’ll be able to indicate whether you think he will remain with his current team or become a free agent. Numbers are prorated to full season where noted. The projected WAR figures are from the first cut of the 2023 Steamer600 projections.

Below are ballots for six of this year’s free agents — in this case, a group of outfielders. Read the rest of this entry »

Say this for the Cardinals: They do a very good job of keeping the band together. On Wednesday, the news broke that Adam Wainwright will return to the team for his 19th and final major league season. On Saturday, St. Louis revealed that Nolan Arenado has declined to exercise the opt-out clause in his contract, meaning that he will remain in the fold through 2027, making $144 million (much of it deferred) for the five-year period.

In his second season with the Cardinals, the 31-year-old Arenado set career highs in WAR (7.3) and wRC+ (151) — numbers that ranked second and fourth in the NL, respectively — and hit .292/.358/.533 with 30 homers. He made his seventh All-Star team and is a finalist to win a 10th Gold Glove; if he does win the award, he’ll tie Mike Schmidt for the second-highest total behind only Brooks Robinson (16). As he also led the NL in bWAR (7.9), and therefore edged teammate Paul Goldschmidt in both versions (Goldy had 7.1 fWAR and 7.8 bWAR), he stands a reasonable chance of winning the NL MVP award. But whether or not he does, the Cardinals couldn’t have asked for anything more from their third baseman.

When Arenado signed his eight-year, $260 million extension with the Rockies in February 2019, his contract included no-trade protection as well as the ability to opt out after the 2021 season. His relationship with the organization began to sour quite quickly after that deal came together, however, and he was traded to St. Louis in February 2021 along with $51 million in guaranteed and conditional payments. As part of the trade, he agreed to defer about $50 million, payable over the 2022–41 timespan; accepted a guaranteed salary of $15 million for 2027; and received an additional opt-out after the 2022 season. By opting out either after last year or this one, he could have saved Colorado about $20.57 million from that $51 million figure, but because he’s staying, his old team is on the hook for that money, which includes $5 million annual payments from 2024 to ’26. He’s the gift that keeps on giving to the Rockies’ beleaguered front office. Via Cot’s Contracts, he’ll receive $35 million for 2023 and ’24, and subsequent salaries of $32 million, $27 million, and $15 million. Read the rest of this entry »

How much should a team’s postseason strategy differ from its regular-season tactics? Overall, probably not that much; if your club makes it to the postseason, it ain’t broke, so to speak. Further, I generally believe the postseason is not the time to experiment with new gameplans that always carry some heightened risk. But historically, there are myriad ways that teams have shaken things up come October.

This especially seems to be the case when a team is down in a series. Take the Yankees in the ALCS this year — that squad went with three different leadoff hitters in four games, moves that had little to do with platoon splits. They faced one lefty starter during the series, Framber Valdez, and had righty Harrison Bader lead off that game, but Bader also led off in Game 4 against fellow righty Lance McCullers Jr.; lefty Anthony Rizzo and righty Gleyber Torres led off the other two games against right-handers. The Yankees also had three different starting shortstops in the series. Read the rest of this entry »

When we released the new FanGraphs app in August, we asked users to tell us which features they wanted to see next. The overwhelming response was to add both articles and leaderboards. We’re still working on how best to integrate the leaderboards, but as of today, we’ve added editorial content to the app. (If you are currently reading this on the app, you might already know all of this!)

If you haven’t already, you can download the app here:

Specifically, we’ve added or updated the following:

• The ability to view our articles on the app.
• A home screen layout that closely reflects the FanGraphs web homepage.
• A blog roll that closely reflects the FanGraphs web blog roll.
• Customization features for Members.

Read the rest of this entry »

Craig Lefferts has a place in San Diego Padres history, and a good story that goes along with it. The 65-year-old veteran of 12 big-league seasons shared it with me prior to a recent Arizona Fall League game.

“My rookie year was 1983, with the Chicago Cubs,” said Lefferts, who is now a pitching coordinator in the Oakland Athletics organization. “We had two left-handers in the bullpen, myself and Willie Hernandez, and the two of us would play catch every day, trying to work on a changeup. We had a right-hander in our pen by the name of Bill Campbell who threw a screwball. He taught, or at least attempted to teach, us how to throw a screwball. Mine was terrible and Willie’s wasn’t very good either. [Pitching coach] Billy Connors told me, ‘I don’t want you to ever use that in a game. I want you to pitch with the stuff that got you here. You’re a rookie, so don’t go out there and try and throw a new pitch.’ So I didn’t, but I kept working on it. After the season, I went to winter ball and perfected it.

“The next year, Willie got traded to the Tigers and I got traded to the Padres,” continued Lefferts. “Both of us threw a screwball as our best pitch. He won the Cy Young Award and I had arguably the best year of my career. I had 10 saves, but was mostly setting up Rich Gossage. Then Willie and I met in the World Series.” Read the rest of this entry »