NL Wild Card Series Preview: Mets vs. Padres

© Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Despite spending 175 of the season’s 182 days atop the NL East, building a 10.5-game lead by the end of May, and winning 101 games, the New York Mets lost out in the division race to a red-hot Atlanta Braves team that has played at a .696 clip since the start of June — and lost out via a tiebreaker, a 10-9 season series disadvantage. Now they’ll have to take the long route through the new postseason format, one that includes a potential matchup with the top-seeded, 110-win Dodgers if they advance beyond the Wild Card Series.

That can’t be taken for granted. Even with Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom available to start in this best-of-three series, all of which will be played at Citi Field, they can’t overlook the Padres, who can offer some top-notch starting pitching themselves and who beat the Mets in four of the six meetings between the two teams. Not that such results are predictive — and it’s worth noting that the aforementioned pair combined for one start in the six games (Scherzer in a 4-1 loss opposite Yu Darvish on July 22) — but they do illustrate the range of possibilities here. The ZiPS Playoff Odds pegged this as the biggest mismatch of the Wild Card round, narrowly edging out the Mariners-Blue Jays series, but with the Padres still having a 42.4% chance of scoring an upset.

Both deGrom and Scherzer looked all too human last weekend during the Braves’ division-s(t)ealing sweep, combining to allow five home runs and seven runs in 11.2 innings. If there’s good news, it’s that manager Buck Showalter didn’t have to send deGrom to the hill in Game 162 in hopes that the Mets would win and the Braves would lose, because that would have ruled him out of the Wild Card round had they lost. Read the rest of this entry »


Cal Quantrill Cares More About Outs Than Stuff+

© Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports

Cal Quantrill epitomizes the term “pitcher.” Twenty-seven years old and in his fourth big-league season, the Cleveland Guardians right-hander not only attacks hitters with a multi-pitch arsenal, he does so with a combination of aggressiveness and guile. Mixing and matching with aplomb, he’s won 23 of 32 decisions and logged a 3.16 ERA in 336 innings over the past two seasons. As my colleague Michael Baumann pointed out just last month, Quantrill isn’t overpowering, but he gets the job done.

Drafted eighth overall in 2016 by the San Diego Padres out of Stanford University, Quantrill was acquired by Cleveland at the 2020 trade deadline as part of the nine-player Mike Clevinger deal. He’s expected to start against the Tampa Bay Rays on Sunday if their Wild Card Series requires a deciding Game 3.

Quantrill discussed his evolution as a pitcher and his it’s-all-about-getting-outs approach this past weekend.

———

David Laurila: We discussed your repertoire in spring training of 2018 when you were in the Padres system. How have you changed as a pitcher since that time?

Cal Quantrill: “If we’re looking at it from a literal standpoint, I flattened out the slider and turned it into a cutter. I went to more of a 50/50 mix with the two-seam and four-seam. I’ve kind of kept a little curveball wrinkle to keep them off the hard stuff. Read the rest of this entry »


The 2022 Team Leader Leavers

Juan Soto
Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

Who was the Nationals’ best player in 2022? Before you try to answer, I should acknowledge that this is not a fair question to ask. For starters, it’s a trick question. More importantly, you haven’t been watching the Nationals. You’ve been doing the best you can to avoid even thinking about the Nationals. That’s called self-care, and I commend you for it. Even the Nationals’ general manager called it “a daily grind to come here and lose baseball games.” He also called trading Juan Soto a “courageous move by ownership,” so maybe don’t listen to him.

Regardless, go ahead and give it a shot! Keibert Ruiz would be a reasonable guess. The promising young catcher posted 1.7 WAR this season. You could also be forgiven for going with Joey Meneses, who put up 1.5 WAR in just 228 plate appearances since his promotion in August. Read the rest of this entry »


Job Posting: St. Louis Cardinals Baseball Operations Fellow, Minor League Affiliate Fellow

Baseball Operations Fellow – 2023

Department: Baseball Operations
Location: St. Louis, MO, USA
Reports To: SRVPGM – Senior VP/General Manager

Summary of Responsibilities:

The St. Louis Cardinals are currently seeking candidates for a Baseball Operations Fellow position for 2023. This Fellowship is a one-year opportunity. At the end of the Fellowship, the Cardinals and the Fellow will jointly determine if there is an appropriate opportunity for full-time employment with the Cardinals. Fellows will not return in the same position in 2024. The Fellow will report directly to the Manager of Video Operations and will work on projects at the direction of senior leadership from the Baseball Development, Domestic & International scouting, Player Development, and Performance departments. Additional training may be provided in topics from scouting to analytics depending on the needs of the team and the Fellow’s interest.

The ideal candidate will have demonstrated a strong work ethic, the ability to learn and adapt to new processes, and a passion for baseball. The Fellowship will provide such a candidate with a broad range of experiences across Baseball Operations and the possibility of permanent employment.

  • The Baseball Operations Fellow position is a full-time position including salary, health insurance, and benefits
  • This position is from early 2023 through the end of the calendar year
  • This position is in St. Louis, MO and will require relocation<

The St. Louis Cardinals are committed to building an inclusive organization where we have a diverse workforce as well as a culture where employees feel they belong and contribute their unique abilities to the team. This Fellowship is dedicated to continuously building a diverse staff, and we strongly encourage candidates who are members of historically marginalized groups, which may include, but are not limited to persons of color, LGBTQIA+, gender, veterans, and persons with disabilities, to apply. If you meet any of the qualifications listed below we welcome you to apply, or to reach out to us at hrinfo@cardinals.com for more information.

Essential Functions of the job:

  • Assisting in the video capture and processing of domestic amateur, international amateur, and affiliated and unaffiliated professional baseball games
  • Assisting Baseball Development and other groups within Baseball Operations with data collection and entry for analysis
  • Communicate effectively with Baseball Operations staff and complete ad-hoc requests as needed

Education and Experience:

  • Current college senior or postgraduate
  • Strong interest in and understanding of baseball/softball
  • Excellent written and verbal communication skills
  • Strong organizational skills
  • Aptitude and comfortability with Microsoft Excel and Google G-Suite (e.g. Docs, Sheets, Slides)
  • Proficient with computers, iPads, and other electronic devices
  • Ability to work weekdays, nights, weekends, and holidays

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.


Minor League Affiliate Fellow

Department: Baseball Operations
Location: USA
Reports To: SRVPGM – Senior VP/General Manager

Summary of Responsibilities:

St. Louis Cardinals are currently seeking candidates for this position to be located at each of our domestic minor league affiliates and our Dominican Republic Academy. The Minor League Affiliate Fellow will manage all aspects of video and technology at these locations in supporting the minor league coaching staff (manager, hitting coach, and pitching coach). The data collected from video and technology will be utilized to provide feedback to players for development.

Pre-game this position will manage distribution, set up and usage of all baseball & sport science technology; during the game this position will manage technology resources for the minor league coaches from the dugout. Post-game this position will ensure all data and video collected from the day is available for reporting & analysis; create reports for players and coaches as required. This position will work directly with the Video & Technology Team and reports to the relevant minor league manager for day-to-day responsibilities at the affiliate.

The ideal candidate will have demonstrated a strong work ethic and impressive intellect. The position is a seasonal job for the 2023 season only, but may lead to full-time employment in Player Development, Scouting, or elsewhere within Baseball Operations.

The Minor League Affiliate Fellow position is considered a full-time position including salary, health insurance, benefits, housing stipend and meal money during road trips.

Essential Functions of the Job:

  • Manage baseball & sport science technology and video capture at the affiliate (e.g. Trackman, Blast Motion, Edgertronic Camera, Polar, Whoop, etc.).
  • During the game, depending on staff needs:
    • Manage in-game capture of technology and video from the dugout
    • Quality assurance of the video and data collected for analyses
  • Communicate any implementation issues to Technology Specialist / Technology Integration Coordinator that are not remediated through initial troubleshooting
  • Attend Spring Training and travel with assigned minor league team on the road

Education and Experience:

  • Postgraduate or college senior available to start work during Spring Training
  • Proven ability to use and troubleshoot baseball or sport science technology (like pairing portable trackman to an Edgertronic camera, syncing wearable technology to a mobile device, etc.)
  • Familiar with and/or demonstrate the willingness to learn technology such as Blast Motion, Trackman, and video integration
  • Ability to communicate effectively and efficiently
  • Proficient with computers, iPads, and other electronics
  • Ability to work weekdays, nights, weekends and holidays
  • Spanish fluency a plus

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the St. Louis Cardinals.


Effectively Wild Episode 1912: Write-In Campaign

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Ben’s efforts to get the new dictionary definition for “ghost runner” changed, how to watch the playoffs when one has cut the cord, Meg’s Rookie of the Year voting deliberations, the underrated Jeff McNeil, the two teams whose per-game attendance declined this season, MLB’s problem gambling PSAs, a DraftKings ad, and more, plus Stat Blasts (56:12) about the worst best players on a team, the change in the percentages of players who make the playoffs and the World Series in their careers, and Mike Trout’s emoji and exclamation point use on Twitter, followed by a Past Blast (1:28:25) from 1912.

Audio intro: XTC, “Your Dictionary
Audio outro: Ty Segall, “It’s Over

Link to “ghost runner” definition
Link to playoff broadcasting schedule
Link to McNeil Stathead query
Link to team attendance page
Link to article on Ohtani qualifying
Link to article on Trout’s game
Link to MLB press release
Link to DraftKings ad
Link to article on Ohtani grand slam
Link to Stathead
Link to Ryan Nelson on Twitter
Link to worst team WAR leaders
Link to playoff/WS appearance data
Link to Trout’s first airplane tweet
Link to Trout’s latest airplane tweet
Link to Trout tweet data
Link to 1912 story source
Link to SABR on Cubs ownership history
Link to Chance SABR bio
Link to new book about Murphy
Link to Posey ownership story
Link to Hornsby story
Link to Jacob Pomrenke’s website
Link to Jacob Pomrenke on Twitter

 Sponsor Us on Patreon
Subscribe to Stathead (Code: WILD20)
 Facebook Group
 Twitter Account
 EW Subreddit
 Effectively Wild Wiki
 iTunes Feed (Please rate and review us!)
 Get Our Merch!
 Email Us: podcast@fangraphs.com


FanGraphs Audio: Previewing the Playoffs With Jake Mintz

Episode 995

With the playoff matchups set, we welcome one half of Céspedes Family BBQ to the show as we look ahead to the newly expanded postseason.

To purchase a FanGraphs membership for yourself or as a gift, click here.

To donate to FanGraphs and help us keep things running, click here.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @dhhiggins on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximate 61 minute play time.)


Jarred Kelenic Is Making Progress

© Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports

The life of any top prospect is filled with pressure, but for Jarred Kelenic, that pressure might have been even greater than usual. Being the marquee prospect in a blockbuster trade must put extra weight on a player’s shoulders. For a time, it looked like the Mariners had pulled one over on the New York Mets. Kelenic was ranked fourth overall entering the 2021 season as a 60 FV prospect, and was viewed as one of the first in a wave of young players meant to save the Seattle Mariners from a protracted playoff drought. But the discourse around the trade that sent him to Seattle — in which he, Jay Bruce, Gerson Bautista, Justin Dunn and Anthony Swarzak went to the Mariners while Robinson Canó, Edwin Díaz, and $20 million went to the Mets — has flipped. Kelenic has struggled in his time in the majors, while Díaz has struck out half the batters he’s faced in 2022. Sometimes prospects get the chance to adjust to the big leagues in relative quiet, but Kelenic’s first 400 plate appearances have come with a high level of scrutiny, and his struggles have forced us to reconsider his ceiling as a hitter.

Yet Kelenic has recently made some strides. In 2021, he was bad against breaking balls, posting a .214 wOBA against them. Jumping ahead to 2022, Kelenic’s issues with breaking balls became even more apparent. In the season’s early going, his wOBA fell even further, down to .093. That’s not a passable mark for a quality big league hitter, and Kelenic was sent down in the middle of May. After a few months in the minors, he got another chance in August, but he had barely finished his cup of coffee before being optioned again. Read the rest of this entry »


Shohei Ohtani’s New Pitching Plan

© Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Shohei Ohtani is one of the best pitchers in baseball and one of the best hitters in baseball. That’s the first thing everyone thinks when his name comes up, and it always will be. He pitches and hits! How could you talk about anything other than that?

While that’s true, it’s leaving out something important. Ohtani is fascinating not just because he’s a two-way player, but because he’s completely overhauled his pitching approach in the middle of his best season yet. When Ohtani threw eight two-hit innings in his latest start, he hardly resembled the pitcher he was in 2021 – or even early in 2022.

When Ohtani pitched and hit his way to the American League MVP award last year (my colleague Jay Jaffe recently covered his quest to defend that title), he did so with a garden-variety pitch mix. He relied most on his four-seam fastball and complemented it with two plus secondaries, a slider and a splitter. He mixed in the occasional cutter and curveball, but mostly stuck with his best three offerings. It’s a classic pairing: fastball, breaking ball, offspeed pitch. It worked because all three pitches are excellent; if you had a 100 mph fastball, a fall-off-the-table splitter, and a biting slider, you’d probably do the same.

Over the offseason, though, Ohtani overhauled his slider. He came out this season throwing it harder and more frequently. In his third start of the year, he flirted with perfection against a loaded Astros lineup, and from that point on, he was a slider-first pitcher. Look at his slider usage by month this year and marvel:

Read the rest of this entry »


Learning From Statcast’s Outfield Jump Metrics

© Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

Everybody loves a shiny new tool. A new tool holds the promise of a better future. “This new spatula,” we say to ourselves, “will transport us to a world of fluffier pancakes.” “Loved ones,” we say to our loved ones, “this cordless drill is going to revolutionize the way we drill holes into things, if and when we decide to start drilling holes into things.”

Statcast’s Outfielder Jump Leaderboard is very shiny. For balls with a catch probability of 90% or lower, it lists every player’s average in several categories. Playing with this leaderboard, I envisioned a bright new future. A future where I could definitively tell anyone unfortunate enough to be within earshot whether it’s more important to get a good jump on a ball or take a good route to it.

Predictably, I broke the tool immediately. Or at least, I thought I did. What I noticed was that the players who took good routes tended to be, well, bad. They had worse reactions, bursts, and Outs Above Average. Most damningly, they counted among their number one Kyle Schwarber. That made me curious. Read the rest of this entry »


Effectively Wild Episode 1911: Thump and Dump

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the Braves’ first sacrifice bunt of the season, Meg’s gratitude for the effect Mariners fandom has had on her life, the Orioles’ status as impressive also-rans, Atlanta overtaking the Mets, how to assess an MLB season, and the playoff field being set. They also react in real time to Aaron Judge’s 62nd home run and discuss Jon Berti stealing his 40th base, the latest Astros leadership turmoil, and a dismaying dictionary addition, followed by a Past Blast from 1911. Then (46:33) they talk to Jordan Shusterman of Céspedes Family BBQ and Fox Sports about witnessing Cal Raleigh’s drought-ending homer in person, the nickname “Big Dumper,” Jordan’s journey as a Mariners fan (and Meg’s reaction to the team clinching), the potential end of playoff droughts, and more, plus postscript updates and followups.

Audio intro: MC5, “Rocket Reducer No. 62 (Rama Lama Fa Fa Fa)
Audio interstitial: Matthew Sweet, “Finally
Audio outro: The Hollies, “The Very Last Day

Link to Harris sac bunt
Link to FG post on Braves bunting
Link to Stats & Info Orioles tweet
Link to Judge homer story
Link to Baumann on Berti
Link to Rosenthal on the Astros
Link to Nightengale on the Astros
Link to dictionary announcement
Link to “ghost runner” entry
Link to 1911 story source
Link to “slobber-ball” game story
Link to Walsh SABR bio
Link to Jacob Pomrenke’s website
Link to Jacob Pomrenke on Twitter
Link to Raleigh at-bat video
Link to Jordan’s article
Link to Kelenic’s tweet
Link to Kelenic’s emoji
Link to Sims call
Link to Rizzs call
Link to Elias on Raleigh
Link to Baumann on playoff expansion
Link to Baseball Bar-B-Cast podcast
Link to playoff bracket

 Sponsor Us on Patreon
Subscribe to Stathead (Code: WILD20)
 Facebook Group
 Twitter Account
 EW Subreddit
 Effectively Wild Wiki
 iTunes Feed (Please rate and review us!)
 Get Our Merch!
 Email Us: podcast@fangraphs.com