Let’s check in on the farm system rankings before the draft. I’m going to begin by pointing readers to a few useful resources. First and most importantly, here is a primer to remind you of the features of the rankings and here is Craig Edwards’ research on prospect valuation that helped inform our rankings methodology. Readers should consider the dollar amounts as an approximation of what the player might receive were they exposed to the open market, which in addition to acting as a filter that aids in our analysis of trades featuring prospect where money also changes hands, is also an illustration of the gap between what minor leaguers earn and what they’re “worth” to their organizations.

Next I’ll note that the “2021 Updated” section of The Board is now live. As players are added to (via the draft or trade) or subtracted from (via trade or graduation) an organization, the Farm Rankings associated with those teams will also update automatically. You may want to follow the FanGraphs Prospects Twitter account, which I typically use to tweet Board updates when players are added, subtracted, or move within the Future Value tiers. If you avoid Twitter because it crosses the wires of your brain and tears at our social fabric, you can simply access the feed on the Prospects Homepage. Just scroll down a little bit; it’s on the right. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the 10th anniversary of Mike Trout’s promotion to the majors, Rey Ordóñez and other players with high highlights-to-value ratios, opting against an Albert Pujols pun, MLB wisely forgoing the humidor for the Home Run Derby, and a quibble with the Derby bracket, then follow up on a discussion of mid-inning coaching visits for hitters and answer listener emails about the value of an above-average broadcast crew, letting All-Stars wear a special patch on their regular jerseys, how baseball would be different in a multiverse scenario, the differing levels of outrage that resulted from MLB’s assorted cheating scandals, and when rooting for individual players crosses over into rooting for teams.

Audio intro: Earlimart, "10 Years"
Audio outro: The Big Bopper, "Bopper’s Boogie Woogie"

Link to MLB.com on Trout’s 10-year anniversary
Link to Ben on Trout’s rookie year
Link to Michael Baumann on Lindor and the Mariners
Link to Ordóñez defensive highlights video
Link to story on Vieira’s debut
Link to story on the humidor and the Derby
Link to FanGraphs TV broadcaster crowdsourcing
Link to FanGraphs radio broadcaster crowdsourcing

 iTunes Feed (Please rate and review us!)
 Sponsor Us on Patreon
 Facebook Group
 Effectively Wild Wiki
 Twitter Account
 Get Our Merch!
 Email Us: podcast@fangraphs.com

Podcast (effectively-wild): Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

We probably don’t write enough about the Giants. That’s not to say that we don’t write about the Giants here — we do, quite frequently. Back in May, Kevin Goldstein looked into their complicated future. Jake Mailhot and Dan Szymborski wrote about the starters. Jay Jaffe and Luke Hooper talked veteran hitters.

So yes, we write about the Giants quite a bit here. But to my eyes, it’s still not enough. This team is the biggest surprise in baseball this year. We’re nearly to the All-Star break, and they’re leading the NL West, the toughest division in baseball. All those articles above focused on Giants exceeding expectations, but I’m more interested in another group: the bullpen, which has been one of the better units in baseball despite a pedigree that could best be described as mixed.

This isn’t a case of spending money and trading players to assemble a monster bullpen. It isn’t a case of prioritizing relievers in the draft and getting it done that way. It’s a motley crew of arms that have turned into far more than we expected — we pegged them 18th in our preseason positional power rankings, and they’ve DFA’ed the player we pegged for the most WAR. This group feels like it came from a script, so let’s treat this like a heist movie and assemble the squad. Read the rest of this entry »

At the outset of the season, the Dodgers were forecast for a major league-high 100 wins thanks to their incredible depth, which included eight plausible candidates for their starting rotation. Thanks to a recent surge, 100 wins remains a realistic target — their .609 winning percentage puts them on pace for 99, and our updated projections forecast them for 98 — but that herd of starters has dwindled due to injuries and other matters. On Wednesday, that herd got even smaller, as the team placed Clayton Kershaw on the 10-day injured list due to a bout of inflammation in his left forearm.

According to manager Dave Roberts, Kershaw “felt something in the elbow” while playing catch earlier this week, but beyond that, there’s no indication as to the severity of his injury, or his prognosis. He’ll undergo an MRI and other tests after the team returns to Los Angeles for its weekend series with the Diamondbacks. With less than a week until the All-Star break, the timing of the move is such that he might only miss one start and would be eligible to return to action on Saturday, July 17.

That said, while this is the sixth season in a row that the three-time Cy Young winner has landed on the injured list, it’s the first time he’s been sidelined for an injury involving his forearm or elbow, and if he’s suffered a strain or a sprain — gulp — he could miss substantial time. Only last season, when he was scratched on Opening Day for a bout of lower back stiffness, has Kershaw returned from the IL as soon as he was eligible:

The 33-year-old Kershaw has pitched well this season, posting a 3.39 ERA and 3.00 FIP in 106.1 innings and lasting at least six innings in 14 of his 18 starts. His FIP, 30.1% strikeout rate, and 25.6% strikeout-walk differential are all his best marks since 2016, respectively ranking sixth, ninth, and third in the NL; he’s also third in walk rate (4.5%). Even so, he was bypassed for a spot on the NL All-Star team, along with every other Dodgers pitcher, despite the team’s NL-low 3.21 ERA and its third-ranked 3.63 FIP. That could change as replacements are announced; Jacob deGrom, for example, has said he will decline his invitation in favor of resting his body and spending time with his family.

Read the rest of this entry »

This is the June edition of my monthly column, in which I recap what’s been going on in the Korean Baseball Organization on both a league- and team-wide scale. If you have any questions, feel free to leave them in the comments or reach out to me via Twitter. Also, don’t forget to check out our expanded KBO stats offering. Without further ado, let’s talk some KBO.

Standings

Read the rest of this entry »

Devlin Granberg is an under-the-radar prospect enjoying a breakout season. Boston’s sixth-round pick in 2018 out of Dallas Baptist University, the 25-year-old first baseman/outfielder — unranked on our 2021 Red Sox Top Prospects list — is slashing .315/.379/.573 between High-A Greenville and Double-A Portland. Swinging from the right side, the Hudson, Colorado native has slugged eight home runs while putting up a healthy 155 wRC+.

Granberg talked hitting prior to a recent game at Portland’s Hadlock Field.

———

David Laurila: How much have you changed since coming to pro ball?

Devlin Granberg: “I’ve had a very similar swing since probably my sophomore year in college. I’ve got a very immobile body — I have tight hips and tight shoulders — but that helps me stay more consistent. It’s kind of what has allowed me to stay with a very similar swing.

“I think the biggest change for me has been the routine. It’s the same thing every single day, whereas in college you’re able to split it up. [College] is similar day-to-day, sure, but you also have different midweek games and practices, plus you get days off. Here, you have to get into a good routine and put yourself in the same state of mind each day in order to hit 95 [mph], or whatever it is the minor leagues throws at you.”

Laurila: Is a strict routine ever a negative? For instance, if you’re scuffling at the plate and doing the same thing day after day…

Granberg: “That’s actually one thing I learned this offseason. In my routine, I have different routines — I have two or three different drill sets that I do in the cage, and I never do the same thing on repeated days. Does that make sense? So, back-to-back days, I never do things exactly the same. I started implementing that in quarantine and I think it’s actually helped me stay a little bit more consistent. I think you have to keep the body guessing. If you stick to the same routine over and over, at some point the body is going to compensate, and then it’s going to overcompensate.

“A routine that is very positive could be maybe neutral, or maybe slightly negative, if you continuously do it every single day. That’s why I try to keep it fresh and mix it up. I’ll go BP, machine work, different things like that.”

Laurila: What was your routine today? Read the rest of this entry »

12:02

Dan Szymborski: The appointed time as foretold has arrived.

12:02

Dan Szymborski: So prepare those complaints that people are asking questions about a topic you do not want them to.

12:03

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s risky, but if you *really* like someone, it can be worth the risk. I dont’ think a hard/fast always/good-always/bad thing works

12:05

Dan Szymborski: Hendricks is certainly a possibility, but the Cubs may not want to trade him at a low point in his value. I do think the Dodgers will pick up a pitcher of course.

Read the rest of this entry »

We have speed limits for a reason. Excessive speed is a factor in more than a quarter of automobile fatalities and is particularly deadly when combined with other dangerous behaviors behind the wheel. And yet, the idea that we can drive 5-10 mph over the limit without repercussion is so entrenched in our collective psyche — and so effectively decriminalized in most American cities — that most people hardly think twice about driving 35 in a 30. Behind this normalization lies an unexamined, exceptionalist belief: “This speed limit may be a good idea, but I have the ability to exceed it safely.”

There are a number of behaviors that fit into this category of exceptionalism: I’m the one who can get away with not flossing, I can spend hours on social media without consequence, I can stay cool into my 40s. Narcissism lies at the end of this road, but most of us don’t make it nearly that far. In doses, it’s entirely normal to think that general principles don’t apply to you personally. The contradiction at play is just part of the human experience, and it’s not always unhealthy: from this wellspring comes hope and ambition, among other traits and emotions.

As far as baseball is concerned, a no-hitter is perhaps the most wholesome embodiment of this form of individual exceptionalism. In the modern game, chasing a no-no is a retrograde “screw you,” not only to the opponent, but to the conventions of our time. “Take your third time through the order penalty and shove it,” and all that. Understandably, there was a bit of no-hitter fatigue swirling through the audience earlier this season. For me though, even with the increased frequency, the no-hitter remains a rebellion, and it’s as badass as ever. Read the rest of this entry »

We passed the halfway mark of the 2021 season over the long holiday weekend, providing a convenient spot to take a break, look back over the preseason projections, and hopefully not cringe too much about how the predictions are shaking out. Since this is the big midseason update, I used the full-fat ZiPS model for individual players in addition to the normal depth chart reconfiguring, with all the high-fructose algorithms rather than the leaner one used for daily updates.

I went through the American League on Wednesday, so now it’s the Senior Circuit’s turn.

The Mets only averaging 89 wins in the update might feel a bit disappointing, but that negative inclination is misplaced. ZiPS actually likes the team’s talent slightly more than it did in March, with the difference being that the injury situation has been worse than expected. Use the preseason playing time predictions with the up-to-date player projections, and ZiPS believes that New York would have a 93-win roster, good enough to be the third-best team in the National League.

Read the rest of this entry »

Through 18 starts and 111.1 innings pitched, Zack Greinke has compiled a 3.64 ERA. To say those figures play at the top of a major league starting rotation would be an understatement. The mere fact that Greinke remains a good pitcher at the age of 37 in his 18th season is an accomplishment in itself. Arriving in Kansas City as a 20-year-old, just two years after being drafted sixth overall out of high school, Greinke has put together quite the career, accumulating 64.2 WAR (which ranks 42nd all-time and third among active players), winning a Cy Young Award in 2009, and finishing in the top-10 of Cy Young voting on four other occasions (’13, ’14, ’15, and ’17). His Cy Young campaign was 12 years ago and he is still an important cog on a club with World Series aspirations, a testament to Greinke’s greatness and longevity. And that’s to say nothing of what he has battled to become and remain one of the best pitchers in the sport for over a decade.

I prefaced this piece with a brief rundown of Greinke’s amazing career because I am going to be throwing up some red flags in regards to his performance thus far. Despite the excellent ERA I referenced to start, his strikeout rate is down to 18.5% (league average is 23.8%) after posting a rate of 24.5% in 2020 and 23.7% from when he signed in Arizona in 2016 through last season. His walk rate is up to 5%, still almost half the league average of about 9% but an increase compared to his 3.7% and 3.3% walk rates in 2019 and ’20, respectively. Greinke is inducing fewer groundballs than in any season since his Cy Young Award-winning 2009. From 2010-19, he allowed a groundball rate of 46.8%. In 2020, that plummeted to 41.2% and this year he is down to 40.9%. That means 59.1% of the contact he has allowed has been in the air. He has maintained his ERA with the help of a below-average HR/FB ratio and a HR/9 rate about 9% less than the rest of the league. His FIP remains at a solid 4.07, buoyed by his aforementioned home run fortune. Regress that HR/FB ratio towards league average and you get an xFIP of 4.14. Put a little more emphasis on his strikeout struggles and the types of batted balls allowed and you get a SIERA of 4.39, which is a tad less than 8% worse than league average.

So what gives? In his last four seasons, aging curve be damned, he has thrown 3.68 SIERA ball over a not insignificant sample of 685.2 innings, which placed him third in the majors behind only Jacob deGrom (690.1) and Gerrit Cole (688.2). Obviously Greinke is at the point in his career where we expect degradation in his performance, but this dip in his peripherals seems noteworthy given all his success, both in terms of surface-level numbers and those under-the-hood, in recent vintage. Read the rest of this entry »