| 12:00 |
: Will Fred Wilpon own the Mets a year from now?
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| 12:00 |
 Dan Szymborski: Yes
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| 12:01 |
Dan Szymborski: Oh yeah, chat go start now.
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| 12:01 |
: the year is 2025. Who are the elite players
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| 12:01 |
Dan Szymborski: LIkely the young elite players of today plus a few names that we don’t know yet
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| 12:01 |
Dan Szymborski: Or, more accurately, we don’t know if they’ll be good or not
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Matt Harvey doesn’t figure to pitch in a major league game anytime soon, not only because the 2020 season might not get off the ground but because his stint with the Angels last year was rather disastrous — so much so that he’s currently unsigned. However, there’s baseball going on in South Korea, and last week, a report by SBS (Seoul Broadcasting System) surfaced that he’s received interest from at least one KBO team. The New York Post’s Joel Sherman confirmed that multiple teams have been in touch with Boras Corp (which represents Harvey), and MLB Network’s Jon Heyman added that teams in Japan “are looking” at Harvey as well.
https://www.instagram.com/p/CBJuomIAbkm/
The 31-year-old righty has been posting videos of his workouts via Instagram, and last month told the New York Post’s Dan Martin of his job search in general:
“I’m throwing bullpens once or twice a week. I hope I get the opportunity. I feel like I’m in high school again, where I have to showcase myself and start all over. I just want to put myself in position to be ready and if it doesn’t work out, to know I put the effort in to make a comeback.”
…“I’ve grown up and matured on and off the field,” Harvey said. “There are a lot of things I’d do differently, but I don’t like to live with regret.”
If all goes well, this might be the final installment of our crowdsourcing exercise, though if the responses from last week are any indication, we’ve got at least one more round to go. The number of responses was down a bit this week, but we still averaged around 1,000 responses per question. As for whether there will be a season, our readers answered with a resounding maybe:
Over the course of the first five polls, two out of every three responses indicated there would be a major league baseball season. It was basically a 50/50 proposition late last week when this poll ran:
(For reference, here are the results for May 20, May 6, April 22, April 8, and March 24)
Well, that was fun. Let’s do it again today, please. Wednesday night was full of some big surprises early and a few later on, all of which are covered below. I’ll start moving drafted players onto their new teams over on The Board once I wake up, so make sure to take a peek at the farm system rankings as they currently stand — they’re about to change as the new prospects get moved over. Briefly, before I dive in, here are the states from which the most players were drafted yesterday:
| Players Drafted | State |
|---|---|
| 4 | AZ, CA, NC, TX |
| 3 | TN |
| 2 | FL, GA |
**Editor’s Note: This piece initially incorrectly stated that the Baltimore Orioles had absorbed their four corners area. It has been corrected. FanGraphs regrets the error.**
The lone surprise there is Arizona, notable because a couple of teams (the Yankees) have either “absorbed” their four corners area recently or have considered it, meaning they let go of their area scout there and had other scouts fill in, thinking the area doesn’t have enough talent to justify having that extra scout. Four kids from the area went on Day 1, and with a lot of junior college spillover expected next year (there are lots of southwest JuCos), it seems especially foolish for other teams to really consider such cuts. Plus, there’s so much low-level pro ball here, baseball for which amateur scouts have a great context since the players are about the same age as their usual coverage. That makes turning over rocks on the complex backfields inexpensive since most of the four corners scouts live in Phoenix. Okay, I’m done. On to my team-by-team analysis. Read the rest of this entry »
Earlier this week we heard from Minnesota Twins 2019 second-round pick Matt Canterino about his draft-day experience and his introduction to professional baseball. Today, we’ll hear from Aaron Schunk, whom the Colorado Rockies tabbed eight picks later, with last year’s 62nd-overall selection. The now 22-year-old third baseman out of the University of Georgia saw his draft stock skyrocket during a junior campaign when he crushed 15 home runs while putting up a .973 OPS; in his two previous SEC seasons, the Atlanta native left the yard just four times.
A two-way player with the Bulldogs, Schunk went on to slash .306/.370/.503 with six home runs in 192 plate appearances with short-season Boise. Now exclusively a position player, he’s No. 8 on our Rockies Top Prospects list.
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David Laurila: You were drafted one year ago. What have the last 12 months been like?
Aaron Schunk: “[The draft] was pretty cool. It was also a stressful night. Since then, the last 12 months have been a bit of a blur. All in all, this whole thing has been a dream come true for a kid who grew up watching the Atlanta Braves on a tube TV, begging his dad to watch John Smoltz and Chipper Jones. So it’s been amazing. Hopefully this will last a long time.”
Laurila: Draft day itself was stressful?
Schunk: “It was a little bit. For much of my baseball life I’ve been kind of an underdog-type player, and in my junior year I wanted to prove a lot of people wrong. I wanted to go out there and try to be a first-day guy. So knowing that my name had floated out there for the [first round] was a little stressful.”
Laurila: Did you have reason to believe you might go earlier than you did? Read the rest of this entry »
| 6:57 |
: Good evening, chat. It’s draft night number one. Hope everyone is ready to engage with a Major League Baseball thing, I’m quite excited.
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| 6:59 |
: Here’s a list of the chainsaws I’m juggling tonight:
-chat -sourcing picks and rumors from draft rooms and tweeting them -updating the draft portion of the board with team/pick# in the “Trend” column -Maybe sliding players onto their drafted team’s prospect list on the pro side of The Board |
| 7:00 |
: You should assume, if I’m not engaging here for a little stretch, that I’m doing one of those other things
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| 7:01 |
: Let’s do some questions before the Tigers go on the clock
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| 7:01 |
: Dream scenario for Mariners at 6?
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| 7:01 |
: Baltimore cutting a deal at 2 and someone they like more than Hancock falling to them.
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My day-of mock goes through the first Competitive Balance Round, and includes a name for Houston’s first pick of the draft at 72. My first mock draft can be found here; my other Draft Week mock is in the navigation widget above. As always, full reports for the 2020 class can be found on The Board.
1. Detroit Tigers- Spencer Torkelson, 1B, Arizona State
2. Baltimore Orioles- Austin Martin, CF, Vanderbilt
As discussed in my previous mock, there’s still a chance Baltimore cuts a deal here. The pool of names if they do is Heston Kjerstad, Patrick Bailey (who seems the most likely of these players to slip to a place where cutting a deal for $4.5-ish million here makes sense), and Nick Gonzales.
3. Miami Marlins- Asa Lacy, LHP, Texas A&M
4. Kansas City Royals- Zac Veen, OF, Spruce Creek HS (FL)
There’s late movement here, including the sudden inclusion of Emerson Hancock, but I think a bat is more likely. Veen and Gonzales are possibilities. The Royals also explored going under slot with Kjerstad, which would make them the stopping point for a lot of seemingly falling players (many of whom are advised by Scott Boras) in the comp round and Round 2.
5. Toronto Blue Jays- Max Meyer, RHP, Minnesota
6. Seattle Mariners- Emerson Hancock, RHP, Georgia
7. Pittsburgh Pirates- Nick Gonzales, 2B, New Mexico State
Pittsburgh could try to cut a deal with Bailey. I’ve also heard high school righty Mick Abel mentioned here but think those chances are remote.
8. San Diego Padres- Robert Hassell, CF, Independence HS (TN)
9. Colorado Rockies – Tyler Soderstrom, C, Turlock HS (CA)
Sounds like Soderstrom would be under slot, which, as with KC, makes sense for the Rockies because they have several early picks. Kjerstad and Reid Detmers are also possible here.
10. Los Angeles Angels- Reid Detmers, LHP, Louisville
I’ve heard Ed Howard’s name here but think college players are more likely and that any of these are good value: Bailey, Kjerstad, Justin Foscue, and Detmers. I’ve also heard Cade Cavalli is in the mix, but his track record is shorter than the other guys’.
11. Chicago White Sox- Garrett Crochet, LHP, Tennessee
If Bailey doesn’t go before this, I think he’s in the mix. The same goes for Abel.
12. Cincinnati Reds- Heston Kjerstad, OF, Arkansas
In order of what I think is likely: Hassell if for some reason he’s here, then Kjerstad, then Abel.
13. San Francisco Giants – Justin Foscue, 2B, Mississippi State
I wonder if they’d consider Bailey here since he and Foscue are similar: younger up-the-middle college players who performed on paper.
14. Texas Rangers – Aaron Sabato, 1B, North Carolina
Sabato has homes all over the teens.
15. Philadelphia Phillies – Cade Cavalli, RHP, Oklahoma
16. Chicago Cubs – Patrick Bailey, C, North Carolina State
As the draft approaches, Bailey is the one college hitter who appears to be slipping down the board, and I think a team with a track record of drafting safe college players will just take him. I also have the Cubs attached to Alika Williams, though I’m not sure if they’d cut for him here or if that’d be in Round 2.
17. Boston Red Sox – Mick Abel, RHP, Jesuit HS (OR)
It sounds like even though Boston doesn’t have a second rounder, they’re looking to take advantage of teams generally avoiding high school players and might cut a deal here to scoop some of them up later. A hot rumor here is that Arizona high school shortstop Carson Tucker or righty Tanner Witt might go underslot here to facilitate that. I think that’s a contingency plan for if Abel is gone.
18. Arizona Diamondbacks – Bryce Jarvis, RHP, Duke
Jarvis’ stuff works much like Zac Gallen’s, and a host of other pitchers the D-backs have either drafted or traded for.
19. New York Mets – Austin Hendrick, OF, West Allegheny HS (PA)
The Mets moved on older, falling high schoolers last year and were willing to alter draft strategy to do so, which they might again.
20. Milwaukee Brewers – Garrett Mitchell, CF, UCLA
21. St. Louis Cardinals- Nick Bitsko, RHP, Central Bucks East (PA)
I think St. Louis is doing work on high schoolers who might fall here: Pete Crow-Armstong, Abel, Ed Howard and Bitsko. They have later comp picks that give them flexibility to go over slot here if they need to, which they probably would for Bitsko. If his number is near $4 million, then he probably slides to the comp round.
22. Washington Nationals- Cole Wilcox, RHP, Georgia
Any of the falling Boras guys make sense here (Hendrick, maybe even Tanner Burns) based on Washington’s history of taking them.
23. Cleveland Indians- Peter Crow-Armstrong, CF, Harvard Westlake HS (CA)
I think Jordan Walker is in Cleveland and everyone else’s mix from here on and if Cleveland wants him, the team probably need to do it here.
24. Tampa Bay Rays- Ed Howard, SS Mount Carmel HS (IL)
The Rays have the picks to diversify their group and typically incorporate some upside-oriented players.
25. Atlanta Braves- Nick Loftin, SS, Baylor
Atlanta puts a premium on defensive fit and Loftin plays short and is model-friendly.
26. Oakland A’s- Clayton Beeter, RHP, Texas Tech
If Beeter throws strikes like he did (very suddenly) this spring, then he could help Oakland’s bullpen this year, and I think they have strong incentive.
27. Minnesota Twins- Jordan Walker, 3B, Decatur HS (GA)
Walker’s power and age make him model-friendly, and that’s a fit with Minnesota.
28. New York Yankees – Jared Shuster, LHP, Wake Forest
I have them on college pitching. Beeter if he’s here, maybe Bobby Miller.
29. Los Angeles Dodgers- Tanner Witt, RHP, Episcopal HS (TX)
30. Baltimore Orioles- Dax Fulton, LHP, Mustang HS (OK)
Baltimore has the pool space to try to move Bitsko here (the bonus number would have to be big enough to scare away St. Louis, Tampa Bay, and maybe Cleveland) and it fits with what Mike Elias did while in Houston. If Bitsko gets popped before this (as in my mock) then Fulton becomes the favorite.
31. Pittsburgh Pirates- Bobby Miller, RHP, Louisville
I expect Pirates decision-makers saw Miller shove when they were in to see Detmers this spring.
32. Kansas City Royals- Jared Kelley, RHP, Refugio HS (TX)
If KC likes a lot of the college arms left on the board, I think they take a falling high schooler knowing a college guy they like will be there at 41.
33. Arizona Diamondbacks- Christian Roa, RHP, Texas A&M (
I think they’d take Howard if he’s here. Roa is here for the same reason I mocked Jarvis to the D-backs earlier: fastball traits Arizona clearly likes. I think Jordan Westburg is also a possibility here.
34. San Diego Padres – Carmen Mlodzinski, RHP, South Carolina
I have SD on college arms here.
35. Colorado Rockies – Dillon Dingler, C, Ohio State
36. Cleveland Indians- Alika Williams, SS, Arizona State
Cleveland loves contact-oriented middle infielders and Alika is in this range for many analytically-inclined teams. Walker is possible if he’s here.
37. Tampa Bay Rays – Slade Cecconi, RHP, Miami
Alika seems in play here, too, if available.
…
72. Houston Astros – Elijah Cabell, OF, Florida State
Houston loves measurable power and Cabell has among the most in the entire draft.
On Monday, the owners presented their second economic proposal to the Major League Baseball Players Association, offering to pay players 50% of their pro-rated salaries from the March agreement for 76 regular season games, and 75% of their pro-rated salaries over 76 games if they played the postseason. That proposal was similar to the previous one the owners had made, shifting around roughly the same amount of money and ultimately offering the players less in guaranteed salary. While the players waited eight days for that proposal, it took them just a single day to respond with Jeff Passan first reporting the MLBPA’s response last night.
The players’ proposal includes an 89-game season beginning July 10 and lasting through October 11, a 94-day period. Players would receive full pro-rated pay for those games. The proposal includes expanded playoffs in both 2020 and 2021, and a player bonus pool of $50 million for the playoffs if there are no fans. Players who are considered high-risk for complications related to the coronavirus or who live with someone considered high-risk could opt-out of the season and receive service time and salary, though others who opt out would receive neither. In analyzing this deal, we have several different comparisons to make when it comes to other offers or potential proposals.
The previous offer made by the players included a 114-game season ending at the end of October, expanded playoffs in 2020 and 2021, a provision allowing high-risk individuals and those living with high-risk individuals to opt-out and receive service time and salary, and all other players to opt out and receive service time. The new proposal addresses some significant issues raised by the owners. Owners want to pay players less. Moving to 89 games decreases player pay by roughly $630 million. Owners have expressed concern about playing late into the year. Ending the season on October 11 moves up the end of the regular season by three weeks. Owners want expanded playoffs; that bargaining chip was kept in the recent offer. Owners didn’t want all players to be able to opt out and accrue service time (service time was a huge issue when the sides negotiated the March agreement), and the union response acceded to those wishes. That doesn’t mean the offer is palatable to the owners, however. Read the rest of this entry »
This is the latest installment of a series in which the FanGraphs staff rounds up the latest developments regarding the COVID-19 virus’ effect on baseball.
The Major League Baseball Players Association has submitted to ownership a proposal that includes an 89-game 2020 season at the full prorated salaries the two sides agreed to in March, according to multiple reports.
The players’ intended regular season would begin on July 10 and finish on October 11, followed by an expanded playoff field that includes 16 teams — eight from each league — instead of the usual 10. That expanded playoff field would also be used in 2021 under the players’ plan. Tuesday’s proposal also mentions the players providing “broadcast enhancements” throughout the year including in the playoffs, which would seem to include things like wearing microphones on the field during play. Finally, the proposal includes opt-out rights for all players that would allow any player to forgo the season while also forfeiting the year of salary and service time. Players designated as high-risk due to conditions with COVID-19 comorbidity however, or those co-habitating with a high-risk person, could opt out without losing any salary or service time.
Previously, the players had offered a 117-game season with full prorated salaries, along with similar modifications made to the next two postseasons. MLB countered on Monday with a 76-game season that would pay players just 50-75% of their prorated salary. Read the rest of this entry »
Baseball’s most famous unsigned draftee is arguably J.D. Drew, who along with superagent Scott Boras, waged a summer-long battle against the Phillies and the MLB draft itself back in 1997. I’d describe that conflict as a draw, for while Drew didn’t win freedom and earned the eternal enmity of Phillies fans, he did get the signing bonus he wanted the following year with the Cardinals.
There are a lot of reasons a player can go unsigned. Sometimes it’s simply a matter of money. Players at the bottom of the pecking order, without a significant signing bonus, have to figure out how to subsist for years on a paltry minor league salary just to take the long shot at having a major league career. Sometimes they just don’t want to play for the team that drafted them. Players with family connections to a team are sometimes drafted in late rounds as a courtesy even though the org knows they won’t sign. Other times, players are hoping for a better draft position in a future year or want to honor a promise they made to their college program, either out of a desire to play ball there or take advantage of getting an education.
From J.D. Drew to Aron Amundson, baseball’s only 100th round pick ever, the stories of why a player doesn’t sign can vary. Thousands of players have gone unsigned only to eventually resurface and end up playing in the major leagues anyway. In 2,584 cases covering 1,983 different players, a draft pick has gone unsigned and later made it to the majors. 439 players didn’t sign at least twice, with the record for a future major leaguer being Luis Medina of the Cleveland Indians. Medina remained unsigned his first five times (MLB had a January draft at the time), getting drafted as high as eighth overall on his fifth refusal. Medina eventually signed the sixth time he was drafted, in the ninth round, his lowest draft position since the first time he was selected.
In the early 1990s, baseball’s owners attempted to short-circuit the whole concept of negotiating with amateurs — not for the last time — by increasing the number of years a team retained control of a player’s rights from one year to five. The players objected and it was ruled in arbitration that owners had to negotiate draft changes with the Major League Baseball Players Association. Read the rest of this entry »