Unusual situations create interesting problems for analysts to solve. While it’s still not clear just what the 2020 season will look like — if indeed there is a 2020 season — the one thing that’s guaranteed is that baseball this year will probably look very different than any season in living memory. (Incidentally, I won’t say all-time: 19th century baseball saw a team disband during warmups because no one was in attendance and some of the home squad left with the visiting team.)

Interesting challenges are usually fun to tackle, though admittedly I much prefer those that don’t involve a lack of baseball. The general belief around the game is that we will get some baseball this year, making the challenge of the moment figuring out what a shortened season will mean for the projections; regardless of what form this season takes, come 2021, I’ll have to churn out ZiPS projections, which should prove to be a trickier-than-typical offseason task.

The natural hypothesis is that in the short-term, the projections will be worse than usual, due to greater uncertainty and simply fewer games played by the players in question. If the season opens in late June or early July, it’s likely that teams will play somewhere in the neighborhood of 100 games. The good news is that while we haven’t had a lost season, we have two strike-shortened seasons, in 1981 and 1994, that can help guide us. They’re not 100% comparable — 1981’s strike was in the middle of the season and 1995 was slightly shorter as well — but they’re the main historical comps we have to look at.

ZiPS projections didn’t exist during these seasons, as I was in high school in 1994 and was just figuring out how to use a toilet in 1981. So to get an idea, I ran some very simplified projections, using only the basic data and simple aging, a stripped-down projection that’s similar to Tom Tango’s Marcel the Monkey forecasting system. Read the rest of this entry »

Facing the prospect of a season without fans in the stands, Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley console themselves and fight baseball withdrawal by revisiting classic accounts of going to games. The authors of three revered books based on single games—Arnold Hano, the author of A Day in the Bleachers (1955), Dan Okrent, the author of Nine Innings (1985), and Rob Neyer, the author of Power Ball (2018)—join the show for a conversation about the enduring appeal of the genre their books belong to, the challenge of writing a book that describes a single game, the different approaches they took, the evolution of baseball’s spectator experience, Arnold’s memories of going to games in the 1920s and 1930s and seeing legends like Babe Ruth, Mel Ott, and Carl Hubbell, baseball’s capacity to offer comfort, and more.

Audio intro: Dan Bern, "A Day at the Ballgame"
Audio outro: Dan Bern, "Love, War and a Baseball Game"

Link to A Day in the Bleachers
Link to Nine Innings
Link to Power Ball
Link to 1954 World Series Game 1 box score
Link to June 10, 1982 Brewers-Orioles box score
Link to September 8, 2017 A’s-Astros box score
Link to previous interview with Rob about Power Ball
Link to video of Mays catch
Link to speech about Arnold at his Shrine of the Eternals induction
Link to info on documentary about Arnold
Link to Hano! A Century in the Bleachers
Link to A Secret Love
Link to Ben and Travis Q&A
Link to order The MVP Machine

 iTunes Feed (Please rate and review us!)
 Sponsor Us on Patreon
 Facebook Group
 Effectively Wild Wiki
 Twitter Account
 Get Our Merch!
 Email Us: podcast@fangraphs.com

Podcast (effectively-wild): Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

The Korean Baseball Organization’s May 5 Opening Day is mere days away, and with 10 teams, the league has a lot of players to learn in a short time if you want to know who you’re watching (assuming a broadcast deal gets worked out).

Luckily, knowledge of Major League Baseball will help out here. Each team is permitted two foreign-born pitchers and one foreign-born batter, and those players are almost always former prospects or fringe big leaguers. If you want to know who to watch in the KBO, players whose names you recognize from bullpen shuttles or part-time fourth outfielder roles are a good way to get started. Today and tomorrow, I’ll profile the foreign-born players on each KBO team. That’s a lot of players, so let’s get right to it, starting alphabetically and working our way through the teams.

Doosan Bears

Chris Flexen: You might know Flexen as an up-and-down Mets reliever. Over parts of three seasons, he pitched 68 not-so-great innings for the Queens club, racking up an 8.07 ERA and 6.92 FIP. That doesn’t sound inspiring, but it’s a tiny sample, and he was at times quite good in the minors. In 2017, he threw 60 innings between Hi-A and Double-A and was tremendous.

When his game was slow to translate to the majors, he revamped his fastball, and things didn’t work out. He added nearly 2 mph, but it came at the cost of sacrificing his two-seamer and losing his grasp of the strike zone; he got only 48.1% of his fastballs over the plate in 2019, which led to an 18.6% walk rate. He’ll look to get back to what worked for him in the minors, a mix of sinkers and an upper-80s slider, with the Bears.

Raúl Alcántara: Alcántara, like Flexen, had a brief cup of coffee in the majors before heading to Korea. Unlike Flexen, he went last year — he signed a one year deal with the KT Wiz. He was essentially a league average pitcher in 2019, and he did it by flooding the zone and daring batters to hit it. His 3.8% walk rate and 13.8% strikeout rate (the league averages are around 8% and 17% respectively) should tell you everything you need to know — he’s basically the KBO’s Kyle Hendricks. With a mid-90s fastball and a cutter/changeup combo to bracket it, he showed enough that the Bears signed him this offseason. Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

Michael Kopech was awaiting what would be his only start of the spring when I talked to him in Glendale last month. Fully recovered from September 2018 Tommy John surgery, the Texas-born hurler told me it was all systems go; he was ready to climb back on the proverbial horse. Recently shorn — his once-flowing mane having been cut for charity — Kopech was simply “trying to get comfortable and find a good rhythm” as he prepared to “compete again for the first time in a while.”

The outing that ensued offered ample evidence as to why he ranks No. 2 on our White Sox Top Prospects list. Not only did the righty record a one-two-three inning, he reportedly hit triple digits on six of his 11 pitches. That’s what he does when healthy. Radar gun readings aren’t always 100% reliable, but Kopech was nevertheless clocked at 105 mph when he was 20 years old and pitching in the Red Sox system. That was five months before he was sent to Chicago as part of the Chris Sale mega-deal.

Kopech turns 24 today, and he’s once again celebrating his birthday in a holding pattern. Unlike a year ago, an arduous rehab schedule won’t be dominating his day planner for months to come. And as all Tommy John rehabbers can attest, the process is indeed arduous.

“There’s a lot of grinding,” Kopech told me. “Every day it feels like it’s great, and then it feels like it’s terrible. At first, it kind of feels like it’s not your arm. But once you get through the growing pains of trying to throw a ball with a new ligament in there, it becomes second nature again. For the most part, I treated my rehab process as a chance to get better.” Read the rest of this entry »

At a time when gatherings of even a handful of people are officially frowned upon, the thought of packing 50,000 or more into the tiny hamlet of Cooperstown, New York for a weekend of festivities is downright unthinkable, even nearly three months from now. Thus it was no surprise that on Wednesday, the Baseball Hall of Fame officially announced that its board of directors had voted unanimously to cancel this year’s Induction Weekend events due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Less than two weeks ago, Forbes Magazine’s Barry Bloom had reported that a decision would be reached by the first week of May, at which point it was all over but the official word.

Thus 2020 BBWAA honorees Derek Jeter and Larry Walker, Today’s Game honorees Ted Simmons and Marvin Miller, Spink Award winner Nick Cafardo, Frick Award winner Hawk Harrelson, and Buck O’Neil Award winner David Montgomery will all be honored during next year’s Induction Weekend. Via the Hall’s announcement:

“Induction Weekend is a celebration of our National Pastime and its greatest legends, and while we are disappointed to cancel this incredibly special event, the Board of Directors’ overriding concern is the health and well-being of our new inductees, our Hall of Fame members, our wonderful fans and the hundreds of staff it takes to present the weekend’s events in all of its many facets,” said Jane Forbes Clark, Chairman of the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum. “We care deeply about every single person who visits Cooperstown.”

“In heeding the advice of government officials as well as federal, state and local medical and scientific experts, we chose to act with extraordinary caution in making this decision,” Clark continued. “The Board of Directors has decided that the Class of 2020 will be inducted and the 2020 Award Winners will be honored as part of next summer’s Hall of Fame Weekend, taking place July 23-26, 2021.”

Read the rest of this entry »

12:01

Dan Szymborski: And here we go!

12:01

Dan Szymborski: Heh, no little league stats in ZiPS

12:02

Dan Szymborski: I have, though I do tend to play HS the most.

Read the rest of this entry »

Three weeks ago, Jeff Passan of ESPN reported a proposal for starting the 2020 season that involved all 30 teams playing in Arizona, using Chase Field, Cactus League parks, and other area facilities. It was the first thing resembling an actual plan to be connected to MLB decision-makers, and predictably, it was full of holes. After wide-ranging skepticism and a league-issued statement of, “Alright, let’s all just take it easy,” the Arizona plan ceded ground a few days later in favor of a new proposal that explored using teams’ spring training facilities in Arizona and Florida, completely re-arranging the divisions to do so. Right on schedule, another state was added to the mix last week, when CBS Sports reported that Texas was being discussed as a potential third site for games.

Finally, MLB’s newest reported plan was brought to light on Tuesday, and it is far and away the most ambitious yet. According to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, MLB is now discussing a proposal that would allow the season to open in late June or early July, with all 30 teams playing in their home stadiums, without fans in attendance. What would make this possible, MLB hopes, is a complete rebuilding of divisions, eliminating the AL/NL structure to construct three, 10-team geography-based divisions.

The details of this plan, and ones like it, are important in as much as they provide a window into MLB’s top officials’ thinking right now. But as we’ve seen in recent weeks, they can also change dramatically from one iteration to the next. That’s understandable, given how quickly conditions on the ground can change, and how much we still don’t know about how soon and how widely testing will be available, when states and municipalities will lift their stay-at-home orders, and when a vaccine will be developed and mass-produced. The more time MLB takes to finalize a plan, as Passan and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal noted in columns earlier this week, the more information they’ll have at their disposal. No matter how many reports we read now, it will almost certainly be weeks before anything concrete is established by MLB and the MLBPA. Read the rest of this entry »

At least until May 5, when the Korea Baseball Organization plans to hold its Opening Day, the Chinese Professional Baseball League isn’t just the only game in town, it’s the only pro sports league in the world that’s up and running during the COVID-19 pandemic. The four-team circuit plays in a time zone that’s 12 hours ahead of Eastern Daylight Time — currently to empty ballparks due to safety concerns — and while the league has begun streaming English-language broadcasts on Twitter, its official site and its on-demand streaming service are mainly in Mandarin, creating a hurdle even for fans willing to get their baseball fixes over morning coffee or by watching rebroadcasts later in the day.

Enter CPBL Stats (@GOCPBL on Twitter), the Mike Trout of English-language resources devoted to the league, and a must-see for anybody attempting to, well, figure out Who’s Hu in Taiwanese baseball. In assembling the aforementioned piece last week, I found CPBL Stats’ site to be a godsend. Its Quick Guide to the 2020 Season pulls double duty as a season preview and a guide to the league’s recent history. Its English-language rosters, and stats (including advanced metrics like wRC+ ad FIP), and its guide to streaming are all indispensible features. While I was writing about the league, the site’s proprietor, Rob, was most helpful in filling in some gaps in my understanding. Earlier this week, he agreed to an email interview that further enhanced my appreciation of the league and his site, and I hope will do the same for FanGraphs’ readers.

First things first: Rob is a Taiwan native who speaks Mandarin as well as English. He described himself as “just an everyday 9-5 office worker in the marketing industry based outside of Taiwan,” and asked to further limit his disclosure of certain personal details, including his surname. What follows here is a lightly edited transcript of our exchange. I have used the English naming order, placing Chinese surnames last instead of first. Read the rest of this entry »

As you may recall, a few weeks ago, we asked for your feedback on FanGraphs Prep, a new project we’re embarking on in light of many parents suddenly having their school-aged kids learning from home. We thought we might be able to use baseball as a teaching tool, and give parents a way to keep their kids engaged with their school work. Since then, we’ve spoken with a few current and former educators to get our bearing and try to design units that are useful to parents and students. For instance, Jake, the author of today’s unit, has a Masters in Teaching with a certification in Secondary (Middle & High School) Social Studies. He taught in Washington public schools from 2010 to 2012, and also worked for a local non-profit serving at-risk youth from 2010 to 2014, where he developed curriculum and a behavior management system.

This is our first effort in the series, and before we get to our lesson, we thought we should lay out what FanGraphs Prep is, and what it is not. These are not meant to be a substitute for your student’s existing curriculum. Curriculum design is not our primary occupation, and if the last few weeks have reinforced anything, it’s just how much skill and expertise it takes to guide students’ learning and design educationally enriching materials for them. What we hope is that these lessons offer a thoughtfully designed, baseball-themed supplement to the work your student might already be doing. We’ll endeavor to provide clear learning objectives, as well as activities or problems for each unit, and offer some pointers for how to tailor the lessons for students who might not fall into each unit’s target grade level. And we want to hear from you on what works and what doesn’t. This week’s lesson skews more heavily toward the writing side of things, but others will tackle math subjects more directly. They’ll be pitched to a variety of grade levels. We welcome your feedback on what other subjects would be useful to you. Thank you for reading the site. Now, on to this week’s lesson! – Meg Rowley

Build Your Own Team Hall of Fame

Overview: A two-week unit centered around the Hall of Fame.

You’ve just been appointed the director of your favorite team’s Hall of Fame. Your first task is to evaluate a single player for possible election to the Hall. Then, you’ll build a new set of criteria for election and determine which players are eligible. Read the rest of this entry »