2024 ZiPS Projections: Tampa Bay Rays

For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Tampa Bay Rays.

Batters

With the sudden collapse of the Cardinals, the Rays are arguably the holders of the crown in the solid-but-not-spectacular department. With one problematic exception, just looking at the depth chart, you see a whole bunch of twos and threes but no obvious MVP candidates, unless Yandy Díaz finds yet another extra gear in him. But there’s also almost nowhere on the diamond where you expect a huge collapse if forced to find an emergency fill-in. Manuel Margot can capably take any outfield job handily, and elsewhere, Curtis Mead, Vidal Bruján, Junior Caminero, and Jonathan Aranda can cover most anything needed outside of catcher.

It’s hard, however, to ignore the Wander Franco situation when discussing how good the Rays will be next year. The legal situation is something for the Dominican Republic to handle, but the Rays still have to do their baseball planning around it, and as of right now, they have an All-Star with MVP upside who may never play again due to some serious allegations in his home country. Four wins is a pretty big swing, and there isn’t really a suitable store-brand generic version of him that the Rays can come up with as a Plan B. That could be Carson Williams soon, but the start of 2024 seems to be a bit too quickly; his modest .202/.274/.366 projections in ZiPS is a whopping 60 points lower than his Steamer projection.

I expect the team to do its usual dollar store shopping and find another catcher, another candidate for shortstop, and maybe an extra bat for designated hitter, which looks to be the weakest spot in ZiPS. On that last point, ZiPS is definitely not bullish on Harold Ramírez repeating his 2023 numbers.

Pitchers

Losing Shane McClanahan for a year is brutal. The Rays lost more than their fair share of starting pitchers this season, but he was one of the key elements that made the injuries to Shane Baz, Jeffrey Springs, and Drew Rasmussen survivable. Now, though, McClanahan is out for 2024, Springs and Rasmussen are both likely to miss a large part of the season, and Baz’s exact return is very much up in the air.

Even if you’re very optimistic in relying on the health of Tyler Glasnow, he may not be back in Tampa next season. That means a lot of the Rays’ pitching fate is in the arms of Zach Eflin and Aaron Civale, though ZiPS at least is bullish on both of them for ’24. Taj Bradley’s stint in the majors came with some real hiccups, but a lot of the problem is the home run rate, which is extremely volatile for pitchers. ZiPS at least thinks he will take a spot in the middle of the rotation at some point, and the Steamer projection is nearly identical. Maybe Tampa will fix Cal Quantrill or something!

ZiPS is usually exuberant about the Rays’ bullpen, but this time around, instead of the usual 10–12 pitchers on the depth chart projected to be above average, I’m only counting seven or eight. They still have a lot of interesting options that nobody has ever heard of, like Chris Gau and Cameron Leonard, but it’s actually sparser in that department than most seasons. I expect to see the Rays hand out NRIs to a larger-than-typical number of minor league FA relievers this spring. Adam Leverett is another name to remember, recently picked up from the Phillies in a quiet trade. Don’t be surprised at that platoon split projection; he’s had notable reverse splits in the minors due mainly to his best pitch being a lively changeup with some nice fade. If converted to full-time relief, ZiPS projects a 3.89 ERA/108 ERA+, making him potentially another useful player plucked from the Island of Misfit Toys.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2024 due to injury, and players who were released in 2023. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Belgian Death Metal Skiffle Band that only plays songs by Franz Schubert, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.33.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.