2024 ZiPS Projections: Houston Astros

For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Houston Astros.

Batters

With the big five on offense (Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve, Chas McCormick when not being randomly benched), the Astros have a pretty high floor in terms of runs scored. ZiPS projects a gentle decline phase for Altuve; Tucker and Alvarez are smack-dab in their prime years. There are some dark clouds on the horizon, as Bregman and Altuve are free agents after the season, but that’s a problem for Future Dana Brown to worry about.

Jeremy Peña came down a bit from his rookie season, as expected, but he’s still a solidly above-average shortstop overall. Yainer Diaz should be fine with the bulk of the time behind the plate. Jake Meyers seems to get a bad rap, but I’m wondering if part of the reason he feels so unexciting is just how good the rest of the lineup is. The weak spot will likely be first base, even with ZiPS projecting somewhat of a bounceback year from José Abreu, who was awful last season before his power started appearing again in August. Being 37 for the 2024 season limits just how much of a comeback to expect from him.

I think the issue here is more a future one than a present one, in that there just aren’t a lot of successors on the horizon. When George Springer moved on into the vast cornfields of Canada, Alvarez was coming back from injury, and Tucker was getting an expanded role. I just don’t see any Alvarez/Tucker equivalents to replace Bregman or Altuve in the short term. ZiPS likes Grae Kessinger in a utility role and has an odd fascionation with Shay Whitcomb (his Triple-A BABIP was much lower than peripherals suggest), but neither looks to be a real replacement at either position. I don’t want to go too far into this since this is a set of 2024 projections, but it’s worth noting since discussions about the future at second and third base will come up this season.

Pitchers

Justin Verlander is the returning hero, but Framber Valdez is the ace in this show. ZiPS generally is more optimistic on the starting pitchers than Steamer is this year; it feels good about Lance McCullers Jr. returning effectively, and while it doesn’t project a lot of innings from anyone after Valdez, it sees the team as being able to continue its strategy of having a ton of interesting guys and shuffling them around the holes. Even some of Houston’s more fringe-y prospects, like Colton Gordon and Spencer Arrighetti, get projections that would be fine in an emergency.

Where ZiPS does agree with Steamer is in seeing the bullpen as a rather middle-of-the-pack bunch. Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu project as a solid one-two punch, and the computer is bullish on Kendall Graveman, at least if he doesn’t have recurring shoulder issues. In relief full time, Ronel Blanco’s ERA drops to 3.65, so he shouldn’t be a problem either. ZiPS is, however, unsold on a significantly better season from Rafael Montero and is unimpressed with the back end of the ‘pen. This is somewhere I can see the Astros making a signing or two. Jake Cousins may be a good rehabilitation project for someone like the Dodgers (he’s a free agent now).

So what does it all sum up to? I think the Braves will have a better projection when all is said and done, but the Astros will likely be the favorite in the AL West, despite the Rangers, and should project safely north of 90 wins unless something goes seriously wrong this winter.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time.

Here are how the ZiPS percentiles worked out in 2023 for pitchers and hitters in in 2023.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2024 due to injury, and players who were released in 2023. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Belgian Death Metal Skiffle Band that only plays songs by Franz Schubert, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.33.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.