The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2026 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

He was a first-round draft pick, and a rotation regular at age 20. By the time he turned 30, he had won both a Cy Young Award and a World Series ring while helping his teams reach the playoffs six times. On the heels of emerging as the best high school pitching prospect in the country, Rick Porcello packed all of that into a 14-season span, with 12 of those seasons spent in the majors with the Tigers, Red Sox, and Mets. He endured a fair share of growing pains and wild performance swings along the way, threw his last pitch at age 31, and didn’t put up numbers that will keep him on the Hall of Fame ballot. But within that comparatively short timespan, Porcello checked a few pretty impressive boxes.

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Frederick Alfred Porcello III was born on December 27, 1988 in Morristown, New Jersey, the second of three children of Fred and Patricia Porcello. Fred worked as a civil engineer, founding his own firm in 1994. Baseball was in Rick’s bloodlines, as Patricia’s father Sam Dente spent parts of nine seasons in the majors (1947–55) as an infielder with six American League teams; he had his best season (79 OPS+, 1.2 WAR) with Cleveland’s AL pennant-winning 1954 squad, and played in three games in that World Series. Rick’s older brother Zack pitched for Lehigh University and the New Jersey Institute of Technology, and later became an assistant coach at Seton Hall University, while his younger brother Jake was drafted by the Tigers out of high school in the 48th round in 2009, and pitched at NJIT as well. Read the rest of this entry »

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2026 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

From being called out publicly by his general manager, manager, and third base coach during an historically wretched season one year, to being robbed of an MVP award after falling just short of a 40-homer, 40-steal campaign the next, Matt Kemp was an enigma. Because he focused more on basketball than baseball growing up, his instincts for the sport sometimes lagged behind his physical abilities, but at his best, he was a superstar, and a sight to behold thanks to his speed and power — a combination of traits that earned him the nickname “The Bison.” He made three All-Star teams and won two Gold Gloves (despite subpar metrics), but unfortunately, a series of injuries to his shoulders and legs compromised those abilities. The $160 million contract he signed after that near-MVP 2011 season became a millstone that sent him from team to team during its eight-year run. Read the rest of this entry »

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2026 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

By the time Shin-Soo Choo reached the majors with the Mariners in 2005, nine South Korea-born pitchers had followed in the wake of Chan Ho Park, who debuted with the Dodgers in 1994, but just one position player preceded him, namely Hee-Seop Choi. It took a few years and a lopsided trade before Choo’s major league career got off the ground, and he lost significant time to a variety of injuries, but over the course of his 16 seasons with Seattle, Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Texas, he established himself as an on-base machine with considerable pop. He set a number of firsts, including becoming the first South Korean position player to make an All-Star team and now, the first such player to make a Hall of Fame ballot.

To these eyes, that latter distinction is a big deal. Most of the 12 newcomers on this year’s Hall of Fame ballot don’t have the numbers to merit election or even much debate. Their appearance on the ballot after spending at least 10 seasons in the majors with some distinction is its own reward, and with the deadline for voting now past, we’re in the part of the cycle where we can take the time to celebrate these players’ fine careers in their own right. A decade ago, I raised a bit of an international stink when Park — who spent 17 seasons in the majors (1994–2010), won 124 games (still the major league record for a player born in Asia, one ahead of former teammate Hideo Nomo), and became the first South Korea-born player to make an All-Star team — was left off. It felt like a needless snub. “Like Hideo Nomo, who blazed a trail for modern Japanese players to come to the majors, Park deserves the recognition that comes with a spot on the ballot,” I wrote for SI.com. I’ve made noise about other slights since then, and I think the situation has improved over time, so I’m particularly glad to see Choo here.

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Shin-Soo Choo was born on July 13, 1982 in the Nam district of Busan, South Korea, a coastal city that is the country’s second-largest, behind Seoul. He’s the oldest son of father So-min Choo and mother Yu-jeon Park. He was born into a baseball family, as his mother’s brother, Jeong-Tae Park, starred as a second baseman for the KBO’s Lotte Giants from 1991–2004, winning five Gold Gloves (given to the best all-around player at each position, not just the best defender) and sealing the Giants’ 1992 championship by recording the final out in their Korean Series victory over the Binggrae Eagles. Read the rest of this entry »

12:02

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to my first chat of 2026! I’ll get this going momentarily (having a chat with a reporter about Hall of Fame stuff)

12:04

Jay Jaffe: OK, I’m back! Happy New Year to you all.

12:04

Jay Jaffe: Hope you had good holiday breaks. If you missed it, I published my Hall of Fame ballot explainer https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jay-jaffes-2026-hall-of-fame-ballot

12:05

Jay Jaffe: and yesterday began the One-and-Done portion of the ballot with a profile of Hunter Pence https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2026-hall-of-fame-ballot-hunt…

12:06

Jay Jaffe: I did include a couple of one-and-dones in the pre-holiday coverage, namely Alex Gordon and Edwin Encarnación, but I gave their careers longer treatments. Likewise for the next profile, Shin-Soo Choo.

12:06

Jay Jaffe: anyway, on with the questions!

Read the rest of this entry »

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2026 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

The great Vin Scully often described Hunter Pence as “all elbows and kneecaps,” and if you never understood the meaning of that colorful phrase, one look at the gangly 6-foot-4 right fielder, with his unorthodox swing, gait, and throwing mechanics, would explain a whole lot. Amplified by his high socks and what more than one writer termed his “bug-eyed intensity,” Pence’s on-field style was anything but textbook. As it turns out, there was a reason for that: In 2013, he was diagnosed with a condition called Scheuermann’s Disease, which caused his vertebrae to grow at different rates, deprived him of flexibility in his thoracic spine, and led him to find ways to compensate. Despite that significant disadvantage, Pence carved out an impressive 14-year major league career, making four All-Star teams and helping the Giants win the 2012 and ’14 World Series. Read the rest of this entry »

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2026 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

There’s no getting around the fact that the 2026 BBWAA Hall of Fame is a lean one. With three candidates elected by the writers in both 2024 and ’25 — following a mini-drought in which just two were elected over the previous three years — the top newcomers didn’t linger, while some long-lasting holdovers were finally elected. That left the cupboard comparatively bare, and when it came to restocking, the best of this year’s first-year candidates bowed out after their age-36 seasons without accumulating massive career totals.

Given all that, I suspected even before I received my favorite piece of annual mail that I wouldn’t max out my ballot by voting for 10 candidates. I only got to 10 in each of the past two years by using my last spot to include a pitcher whose S-JAWS is short of the standard but who offers other compelling reasons for inclusion. For the 2024 ballot, I tabbed Andy Pettitte due in part to his massive postseason contributions, while for ’25 I selected Félix Hernández due to his stellar early-career run and a concern that he could slip off the ballot without a longer discussion, à la two-time Cy Young winner Johan Santana on the 2018 ballot.

Both choices were a reaction to the dearth of starting pitchers elected in recent years and the reality that such a trend isn’t likely to change. BBWAA voters have elected just three starters born in 1969 or later, namely Pedro Martinez (1971), Roy Halladay (1977) and CC Sabathia (1980). While Zack Greinke, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, and Justin Verlander will likely join them someday, the industry’s trend towards smaller workloads — coupled with the greater injury risk that comes with chasing higher velocities and spin rates — has made the familiar milestones that virtually guarantee election even more remote. Voters need to rethink their standards for starters, and I believe that discussion is well served by keeping the candidacies of those on the ballot alive for further deliberation. With five of the 10 players I voted for last year not carrying over (Sabathia, Ichiro Suzuki, and Billy Wagner were elected, while Russell Martin and Brian McCann fell short of 5%), I suspected I’d be able to fit both Hernández and Pettitte as well as newcomer Cole Hamels and holdover Mark Buehrle.

I had all that in mind as I worked through this year’s top 19 candidates in my series over the past six weeks (I’ve still got eight one-and-done stragglers to cover in early January, none of whom were in serious consideration for space on my ballot). This is my sixth year with an actual ballot, but even with the heightened scrutiny that comes with it, filling one out remains a privilege and still feels like a novelty in the context of 25 years of analyzing Hall of Fame elections, and 23 of doing so while armed with the system that became JAWS (the official 20th anniversary of the metric’s introduction was in January 2024). Read the rest of this entry »

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2026 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

Though he was athletic enough to be drafted as a shortstop, Edwin Encarnación never found much success in the field. Through his first seven seasons with the Reds and Blue Jays, his defensive miscues offset generally solid offense, so much so that he earned the derisive nickname “E5” (as in error, third base). But as with his late-blooming teammate in Toronto, José Bautista, when adjustments to Encarnación’s swing unlocked his in-game power, he became a force to be reckoned with.

Surrendering his third baseman’s mitt and splitting time between first base and designated hitter definitely helped. From 2012–19, Encarnación hit a major league-high 297 homers, with at least 32 in every season, and a high of 42, set in ’12 and matched in ’16. He never led the league, but placed among the AL’s top five four times, and within the top 10 in three other seasons. Among players with at least 2,500 plate appearances in that span, his 138 OPS+ ranks 10th.

The one-two punch of Bautista and Encarnación kept the Blue Jays entertaining through some lean years, and with the arrivals of third baseman Josh Donaldson and catcher Russell Martin in 2015, the team reached the playoffs for the first time since winning back-to-back World Series in 1992–93. Toronto did it again the next year, punctuated by Encarnación’s three-run walk-off homer off the Orioles’ Ubaldo Jiménez to win the 2016 AL Wild Card Game. Read the rest of this entry »

12:02

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to my final chat of 2025! Very shortly my profile of Edwin Encarnación will go live on the site, my last of this calendar year but not of this cycle; I’ve got a bunch of one-and-done guys to cover in January. My Hall of Fame ballot explainer will go live a week from today, and will be in the mail the same day.

12:05

Jay Jaffe: In case you’re scoring at home, that’s four new profiles thus far (Cole Hamels, Ryan Braun, Alex Gordon, and Encarnación), eight holdover profiles, and three multi-candidate roundups. You can see the schedule here — with a link to our Crowdsource Ballot, if you haven’t already partaken (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-2026-hall-of-fame-ballot-of-your-own-and…) — or follow the links atop each post to get to the ones you missed.

12:05

Jay Jaffe: and now, on with the show.

12:08

Jay Jaffe: I think once we establish this as a viable route into the Hall, Jobe would definitely be one worth considering. I do find it remarkable that only two pitchers with TJs have been elected (John Smoltz and Billy Wagner), but that speaks more to the general dearth of pitchers elected over the past few decades than anything else.

Read the rest of this entry »

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2026 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

The third and final multi-candidate pairing of this series is by far the heaviest, covering two candidates who have both been connected to multiple incidents of domestic violence. Read the rest of this entry »

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2026 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

Alex Gordon spent nearly a decade and a half embodying the ups and downs of the 21st-century Kansas City Royals. His 14-year career began with unreasonably high hopes and then typical growing pains before culminating in one of the more unlikely championships in recent memory, followed by a steep decline.

After dominating at both the high school and college levels in Lincoln, Nebraska, Gordon was drafted as a third baseman by the Royals with the second pick in 2005, and touted as the Next George Brett, a nearly impossible bar to live up to in any era, let alone one in which his team was a perpetual doormat in need of a savior. He hadn’t even played a major league game before Brett himself claimed to be flattered by the comparisons. In the spring of 2007, as Gordon worked to make the jump from Double-A to the majors, the Hall of Fame third baseman with three batting titles, 3,154 career hits, and a rock-solid claim as the best player in franchise history told a reporter, “I take it as a compliment. When I watch him play, he makes the game look pretty easy. When I played the game, I knew how hard it was. He’s better than I was at (23). Much better.” Read the rest of this entry »