Author Archive: Jay Jaffe

Rebounding from two sub-.500 seasons, the Rays won an American League-high 98 games, and took home their first AL East title since 2021. They followed that with an impressive three-game Division Series sweep of the Yankees, highlighted by Drew Rasmussen’s 7 2/3 no-hit innings in Game 1, a contact frenzy that exposed the Yankees’ shoddy infield defense and hastened ace Cam Schlittler’s exit in Game 2, and a timely two-run homer by rookie Victor Mesa Jr. in Game 3. That sweep marked the Rays’ first postseason series victory since 2020, when they outlasted the Astros in a seven-game ALCS to claim their second pennant in franchise history. After bowing to the Dodgers in that World Series, they made the playoffs in each of the next three seasons but went just 1-7 in those games, including a 2022 Wild Card Series sweep by the Terry Francona-managed Guardians. Rays manager Kevin Cash and designated hitter Yandy Díaz are the only principals left from the 2020 pennant-winners. This really is a new era in Tampa Bay baseball.

For their part, the Guardians spent a good chunk of the summer drafting behind the upstart White Sox in the AL Central race before sneaking into first place in mid-September and finishing one game ahead of their rivals at 85-77. They came from behind again versus Chicago during the ALDS, becoming the fourth team to lose the first two games of a five-game series at home but win three straight elimination games to capture the series. After being called upon to close out Game 4 with a four-run lead (a bit of overkill), Gavin Williams threw 5 2/3 innings of one-hit ball and struck out 12 on just one day of rest, while José Ramírez shook off an injury-related slump to homer in Games 4 and 5; his two-run shot off an ankle-high pitch in the finale was all the scoring Cleveland needed. Against the whiff-prone White Sox, Guardians pitchers set and then broke the postseason strikeout record for a nine-inning game, with 19 strikeouts in Game 3 and then 21 in Game 5. This is Cleveland’s third straight trip to the postseason under manager Stephen Vogt, and its second time to the ALCS in that span; the Guards lost to the Yankees in 2024.

Particularly given the contrast between the big-spending Dodgers and the more frugal Brewers in the NLCS, expect much to be made of an ALCS matchup featuring the teams ranked 29th and 28th in payroll, with Cleveland ($87 million) slightly outspent by Tampa Bay ($90 million). Both are ultra resourceful teams whose front offices are among the game’s most analytically inclined, though they’re built differently, with the Guardians heavily reliant on homegrown talent, while the Rays have largely leaned on smart trades to fill out their roster. In fact, deals with the Guardians brought the Rays Díaz in 2018 and third baseman Junior Caminero in ’21, the latter when he was an 18-year-old coming off his professional debut in the Dominican Summer League. Read the rest of this entry »

Thanks in part to their offense’s listless performance against a parade of six Braves pitchers — Atlanta’s second bullpen game in a row — the Dodgers squandered a chance to take a 2-0 Division Series lead on Sunday, lending extra urgency to their matchup against Chris Sale in Tuesday’s Game 3. Manager Dave Roberts shook up his lineup in ways both foreign and familiar, most notably dropping Shohei Ohtani in the batting order below the two-hole for his first time as a Dodger, in hopes it would lead to a better approach by the banged-up, slumping slugger. Additionally, Roberts called upon old hands Enrique Hernández and Miguel Rojas, as much for their intensity as for the platoon advantages they provided against the ace lefty. Not all of those moves had a direct impact, but one certainly did, as Hernández broke a scoreless tie with a two-run homer off Sale in the fourth inning. Backed by seven strong innings from Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the Dodgers eked out a 3-1 victory, positioning them to clinch the series on Wednesday.

Through the first two games, Ohtani had gone 2-for-8 with a pair of strikeouts out of the no. 2 spot behind Mookie Betts, with a single in each game and three hard-hit balls in all. Roberts dropped him to fifth behind Betts, Freddie Freeman, Teoscar Hernández, and Will Smith — the first time Ohtani had started a game batting lower than fourth since 2020, when he was Angel. I’ll explore the numbers below, but the move made particular sense given Ohtani’s sudden struggles against sliders, Sale’s forte. Elsewhere, Roberts swapped out switch-hitting Tommy Edman at second base in favor of Rojas, batting sixth, and in place of lefty-swinging Max Muncy, he inserted the righty-swinging Hernández at third base, batting him ninth. Ohtani aside, the lineup resembled the one the Dodgers used when they — including Yamamoto — squared off against Sale on August 27 in Atlanta; Hernández played third, and Rojas second, with Edman in center in place of the injured Andy Pages. The Dodgers lost that one, 1-0, as Sale tossed a five-hit, 11-strikeout shutout, with Rojas the only one of the aforementioned moving parts to collect a hit.

Muncy merely ranked second on the team this year in both wRC+ (129) and homers (29), and what’s more, he homered in each of the first two games of the NLDS, running his franchise record for postseason dingers to 18. Coming off one of his best seasons against same-side pitching — .261/.343/.504 (133 wRC+) in 134 plate appearances against lefties, compared to .249/.349/.485 (126 wRC+) in 427 plate appearances against righties — this wasn’t a benching to be taken lightly. Hernández’s small-sample numbers against lefties during an injury-shortened season (.176/.236/.333, 50 wRC+ in 55 PA) didn’t exactly strengthen the case, nor did his 81 wRC+ against lefties over the past three seasons, compared to 75 against righties. Read the rest of this entry »

Ty France fell just short of playing the hero during the ninth inning of Saturday night’s Division Series opener between the Padres and Brewers, and his performance on Sunday at the center of the San Diego offense would have loomed larger if not for Mason Miller’s ninth-inning meltdown. The 32-year-old first baseman has been swinging a hot bat during the postseason, building on an impressive campaign in which he returned to the team that drafted him in 2015 and rediscovered his swing after two years of meandering around replacement level and through the rosters of four teams.

France collected two of the Padres’ five hits in Game 2 and drove in two of their three runs. He put them on the board in the first inning against starter Logan Henderson, ripping a 104.3-mph RBI single to right-center after Manny Machado worked a two-out walk and then took second on a wild pitch. After striking out in the third and being hit on the elbow guard by a Henderson changeup in the sixth, France faced Abner Uribe in the seventh with the Padres up 2-1 and Fernando Tatis Jr. (who had reached on an error) on second and Machado (who had walked again) on first. Ahead in the count 1-0, he smacked a 101.3-mph grounder to right field. Tatis raced home to run the score to 3-1, but Sal Frelick threw Machado out at third base to extinguish the rally.

Alas, the Padres couldn’t hold their two-run lead. The Brewers clawed back a run in the bottom of the seventh with a single, a walk, and a throwing error by second baseman Jake Cronenworth, then rallied for two in the ninth as Miller walked three before surrendering a walk-off single to Jackson Chourio. Read the rest of this entry »

NEW YORK — Lefty? Righty? The platoon-heavy Yankees will beat your frontline starter regardless of handedness, and their frontline starter will shut your offense down. That was the case, at least, in this year’s Wild Card Series between the Yankees and the Red Sox. After fireballing righty Cam Schlittler overwhelmed Boston in Tuesday night’s opener, lefty Max Fried stifled the Sox for six innings on Wednesday. Meanwhile, a lineup stacked with eight lefty hitters — and again, no Aaron Judge — pressed Red Sox manager Chad Tracy to pull starter Sonny Gray after just 70 pitches, trailing 1-0. As on Tuesday night, the Yankees broke the game open against Boston’s lefty relievers. New York cruised to a 9-2 victory and a series sweep.

As he did in Game 1 of the 2025 Wild Card Series against the Red Sox, Fried pitched brilliantly. He held Boston scoreless through the first five innings on just two hits before allowing a solo home run to Willson Contreras with two outs in the sixth. It wasn’t just Boston’s first home run of the series, it was the team’s first run in a playoff game since the sixth inning of Game 2 of last year’s series, a span of 26 2/3 innings. Fried struck out six while walking one; though he got just nine whiffs (18.8%) and a 23.5% called strike and whiff rate, he allowed just three hard-hit balls and an average exit velocity of 85.3 mph. He threw 98 pitches, and when the Yankees broke through for six runs in the bottom of the sixth inning, it was an easy call for manager Aaron Boone to go to his bullpen. Read the rest of this entry »

NEW YORK — Cam Schlittler and Ben Rice may be Massachusetts natives, but the two Yankee stars did nothing to help the Red Sox during Tuesday night’s Wild Card Series opener against their archrivals. In a start reminiscent of his performance in last year’s do-or-die Game 3 between the two teams, Schlittler, the fireballing 25-year-old righty from Walpole, dominated the Red Sox hitters, throwing 6 1/3 shutout innings and striking out 10 while allowing just two hits. Rice, the 27-year-old slugger from Cohasset, picked up the slack for the injured Aaron Judge by going 4-for-5 with two homers and six runs batted in as the Yankees waited out Red Sox ace Payton Tolle, then broke the game open against the bullpen en route to a 9-0 romp.

This was the sixth time in 363 days that Schlittler faced the Red Sox, dating back to the aforementioned Game 3 of the 2025 Wild Card Series. At that point, the baby-faced rookie — a seventh-round pick in 2022 out of Northeastern University with just 14 major league starts under his belt — turned in eight brilliant shutout innings, striking out 12 without a walk and allowing just five hits, all singles. In his first full season, while leading the league in ERA (1.95) and WAR (6.2) and making an overwhelming case for the AL Cy Young Award, Schlittler started four times against the Red Sox, putting up a 0.74 ERA in 24 1/3 innings while striking out 27. Those numbers conceal a few minor blemishes; he did allow four unearned runs in five innings in a loss on June 25, the only time in those six starts that the Yankees were defeated, and he walked five in 5 2/3 shutout innings on August 28. But so far, the Sox have yet to solve him.

They certainly didn’t on Tuesday night, though they did make Schlittler work hard enough to run up his pitch count early and to throw a career-high 117 pitches. Though Schlittler struck out three in the first inning, he needed 22 pitches to complete the frame thanks to a 10-pitch at-bat by Adley Rutschman that culminated in a soft single to left-center. His next three innings were spotless and included five more stirkeouts, but he needed 44 pitches for those, then another 23 for a fifth inning in which he yielded a two-out, seven-pitch walk to Jarren Duran, and 18 for a 1-2-3 sixth that included two more strikeouts. The pesky Red Sox fouled off 24 of his pitches in all, including 14 with two strikes. Read the rest of this entry »

Credit the Phillies for trying. When I highlighted the worst defenses among contending teams in early July, they were the poster boys, scoring worse than any team besides the decidedly non-contending Rockies in the multi-metric methodology I’ve used for the past four seasons. But when the August 3 trade deadline arrived, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski took a step to improve that shoddy defense, acquiring second baseman Luis Arraez from the Giants and setting off a game of musical chairs that sent incumbent second baseman Bryson Stott to third base, third baseman Alec Bohm to first, and first baseman Bryce Harper to right field. The defense at those spots mostly improved, but last Thursday, with the Phillies in the midst of what would become a 2-6 skid that nearly cost them a Wild Card berth, Arraez sprained his left ankle while trying to avoid a tag at first base. On Monday, interim manager Don Mattingly announced that the 29-year-old infielder will be left off the roster for the team’s Wild Card Series against the Braves.

How Mattingly will proceed with his lineup is unclear. In the three games Arraez missed — including Sunday’s playoff berth-clinching win over the Rays — Edmundo Sosa started at third base twice while Stott returned to second, while in the other game, Bohm and Harper moved back to their original positions as well; they lost that one 12-1.

Below I’ll take a closer look at the metrics underlying the Phillies’ defensive configurations, but long story short, they rate as the playoff team with the worst defense, as they did last year and in 2023. Read the rest of this entry »

For the second season in a row, the American League East’s top rivals will square off in a best-of-three Wild Card Series in the Bronx. This matchup, though, is hardly a carbon copy of the last one, when the Yankees advanced thanks to rookie Cam Schlittler’s dominant Game 3 performance. For one thing, both the Yankees (93-68) and Red Sox (87-75) have experienced some turnover, and each may be without one of their biggest superstars. At this writing, the Yankees are expected to go without Aaron Judge, who played in just seven games between returning from a stress fracture in his right first rib that cost him all of June, July, and August, and a right calf strain that sent him back to the injured list retroactive to September 17. The Red Sox are still evaluating whether 2025 AL Cy Young runner-up Garrett Crochet will be part of their bullpen; he hasn’t pitched in a competitive game since April 25 due to shoulder capsule inflammation and a subsequent lat strain, and did not have time to rebuild to a starter’s pitch count.

Beyond that intrigue, these are hardly the offensive juggernauts of yesteryear. Last October’s matchup pitted the AL’s highest-scoring team (the Yankees, 5.24 runs per game) against the third-highest scoring (the Red Sox, 4.85 runs per games), but this year’s pair respectively ranks second (4.59 runs per game, 101 wRC+) and 10th (4.25 runs per game, 99 wRC+). Instead, these are the league’s top two teams in terms of run prevention, with the Yankees allowing 3.73 runs per game and the Red Sox 3.77.

For both teams, this was a tale of two seasons. After the Red Sox skidded to a 10-17 start, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow fired manager Alex Cora — who guided the Red Sox past the Yankees during the 2018 and ’21 postseasons, with a championship in the first of those years — and shook up the coaching staff. Under interim manager Chad Tracy, the Red Sox reached the season’s halfway point with a 35-46 record before climbing above .500 during a franchise record-tying 15-game winning streak from July 3–22. Though they went just 12-12 in September amid injuries, Tracy was rewarded last week with a three-year contract and the removal of the interim tag from his title. The team has gone 77-58 on his watch. Read the rest of this entry »

Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, and Freddie Freeman were vital contributors to the Braves when they won the 2021 World Series after getting as far as Game 7 of the National League Championship Series against the Dodgers the year before. Half a decade later, all three remain lineup staples — the first two in Atlanta, the third in Los Angeles — but as the postseason approaches, they rate as significant concerns for their respective teams. Though neither Albies nor Riley has turned 30 yet, both have not only had disappointing seasons, they appear to be multiple years into their decline phases, held in place by a combination of loyalty, track record, and long-term extensions. Freeman is 36 years old and a future Hall of Famer nearing the end of his 10th All-Star season, but while he would seem to be on firmer footing, he’s been dealing with a power outage that has coincided with a bout of patellar tendinitis in his right knee. He’s played through it at a time when the Dodgers have dealt with bigger injury concerns, though at least he’s got a first-round bye to help him recover for a few days.

Earlier this week, I went around the diamond to identify the most notable vulnerabilities in the lineups of teams still contending for playoff spots in the American League — a companion of sorts to my annual pre-deadline Replacement Level Killers series, albeit among a more limited field. For the National League, that means the Brewers, Dodgers, Braves, Cubs, and Padres, all of whom have clinched spots (the last two of those on Thursday), plus the Phillies and Diamondbacks. Arizona trails Philadelphia by two games with three to play and has Playoff Odds of just 11.1% before accounting for the complicated and unresolved tiebreaker scenario involving those two teams.

While full-season performances play a significant part in these selections, I’m more concerned with who’s worst now, with injuries and adjustments in mind. Each position has a headliner (or two, if it’s a job share), but at several positions, I’ve noted other teams with concerns, particularly injury-related ones. Read the rest of this entry »

The Yankees had to make do without Aaron Judge for all of June, July and August due to a stress fracture in his right first rib. With the days on the calendar dwindling and the AL East title still in play — which is no longer the case after the Rays clinched on Tuesday night — Judge bypassed a rehab assignment, but once he returned, he played in just seven games before landing back on the injured list due to a right calf strain. Both the slugger and the team took great pains to avoid discussing the injury’s specificity and timeline for recovery until Tuesday, when manager Aaron Boone revealed that Judge has a “moderate grade” strain, received a platelet-poor plasma injection, and isn’t expected to be available for the team’s Wild Card Series rematch against the Red Sox.

While deadline acquisition Heliot Ramos has heated up after a very slow start to his pinstriped career, the Yankees’ right field situation is one of the more glaring potential trouble spots among American League contenders. As the playoffs approach, teams no longer have a chance to upgrade from outside their organizations and instead must make do with the talent on hand. What follows here is a look at the most vulnerable teams at each position — something of a companion to my annual pre-deadline Replacement Level Killers series, with a focus on the teams that still have a chance to make the playoffs. For the AL, that means the Rays, Yankees, and Red Sox — all of whom have clinched spots — plus the Guardians, White Sox, Rangers, and Astros, who are battling for the other two division titles and the third Wild Card spot. I’ve taken the Blue Jays out of consideration, as their Playoff Odds now start with a zero in front of the decimal. While full-season performances play a significant part here, I’m more concerned with who’s worst now, with injuries and adjustments in mind. Each position has a headliner (or two, if it’s a job share), but at several positions, I’ve noted other teams with concerns. A companion National League piece will follow. Read the rest of this entry »