Kiley McDaniel: Hello from the ATL. Head to fangraphs.com/prospects for our latest content, including the NL Central lists wrapping up this week with the NL East coming up next. Podcast going up later today

Jake Jortles: How bad was that Segura trade for the Mariners?  Seemed pretty terrible from here.

Kiley McDaniel: The Paxton deal was on the lower end of fine. This deal was maybe a little below that, in part because the market for SS’s isn’t large, there was guaranteed money, everyone knew he didn’t get along with Dee Gordon and SEA was aggressively dumping guaranteed money. Luckily they found a match of another team trying to dump money nobody wanted (Carlos Santana) that also had an MLB-ready everyday shortstop.

Kiley McDaniel: And by fine I mean the cold, economic asset value range–the Paxton deal was $35-50M in value for like $30-40M in value–where trades generally, in a vacuum tend to match up pretty well. The Segura deal had extenuating circumstances

Lilith: Is it likely that Bobby Witt Jr is going to fall in the draft due to his age and contact issues?

Kiley McDaniel: Fall would be relative to where he is now and everyone know his age now, so that’s not an issue in terms of where he’s headed. He’ll probably slide up a bit (we cover this in the podcast that’s coming out today) as he performed well at Jupiter and with Team USA, answering some of those contact questions.

Meg Rowley: Hello all!

Meg Rowley: And welcome to the chat.

ChiSox2020: Trade proposal – Carlos Rodon for Nick Senzel.

Meg Rowley: But not like, a serious one, right?

CamdenWarehouse: Meg, I’ve been waiting all day to ask you: What did Jerry Dipoto do?

CamdenWarehouse: Also every time Seattle makes a big trade, that song bounces around my head for a couple days. I am quite unhappy with Baumann.

Dan Szymborski: There are civil defense sirens going off, so either it’s noon on the first Monday or I’m going to die soon. Let’s find out which!

MrMet33: Any update on ZiPS release schedule for 2019 projections?

Dan Szymborski: Starting tomorrow! Since I’ll be able to do more a week for FG as I’m now full-time here, we should end around the same time.

Jay: What should the Padres do with Wil Myers, Hunter Renfroe, Franchy, and Franmil?

Hunt for for 28: The return for Segura seems pretty weak to me.. plus taking on Santana?? I don’t get it

Dan Szymborski: Honestly, I think you have to trade Myers. With Hosmer at first for no particular reason

Eric A Longenhagen: Good afternoon from cloudy Tempe.

Eric A Longenhagen: Let’s begin this week’s chat, which I’m totally 100% focused on and not at all distracted from by current trade rumors.

Eric A Longenhagen: Oh, hey! Brewers list came out today.

Eric A Longenhagen: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-32-prospects-milwaukee-brewers/

Eric A Longenhagen: Pirates were Monday, if you missed it

Eric A Longenhagen: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-35-prospects-pittsburgh-pirates/

Jay Jaffe: Hey folks, apologies for the delay this week. I’m deep into my Hall of Fame profile series, awaiting the publication of my Roy Halladay piece. Later today I’ll also publish a tentative schedule of the candidate profiles as well as a link to a very cool new feature: the FanGraphs Crowdsource Hall of Fame ballot, in which registered users will be able to cast their own votes from 0-10 candidates from now until December 31.

Jay Jaffe: As I await the delivery of my burrito, let’s get to it, with questions about both the Hall and the Hot Stove.

Syndergaardians of the Galaxy : Have the Braves already won the off season?

Jay Jaffe: I really like the Josh Donaldson deal; as we often say, there are no bad one-year contracts, and for a team like the Braves, with a lot of young talent and money to spend (see https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-braves-profits-provide-glimpse-int…), this seems like a good move; if Donaldson is worth about 2.5 wins, it’s more or less break-even from a $/WAR standpoint, and if he’s anything close to his track record besides last year, it’s a bargain, and there’s no long-term risk.

As for the addition of McCann, I don’t have high hopes given his recent lack of durability, but he can still be a solid backup and doing so where his career began is one of those nice full-circle stories.

That said, the Braves still have work to do, including adding a right fielder and some kind of rotation upgrade, so let’s not anoint them the winners just yet.

Acunami: With your great work on hitters, how do you see young pitchers and their chances for the Hall? Buehler, even Soroka with his limited but good debut?

Jay Jaffe: Given the fragility of elbows, shoulders and backs, I can’t even begin to ponder the Hall chances of a rookie, because far too much can happen. Hell, even two-time Cy Young winners like Saberhagen, Santana and McLain are outside the Hall of Fame. There just aren’t any guarantees that even the best young pitcher can survive the brutal realities for even the 10 years needed to qualify for election.

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from FG ATL HQ where there’s a staggering amount of leaves in the backyard, but it allows Scout to run laps like she’s in the snow, leaving a trail when she pulls a tight turn

Kiley McDaniel: Lots of stuff happening with rumored trades, one big one done, free agency, prospect lists and a fresh draft rankings update coming next week

Tommy N.: Thoughts on Dan O’Dowd’s trade proposal yesterday on MLB Network of Thor and d’Arnaud for Hedges, Lucchesi, and Paddack?

Kiley McDaniel: It’s not terrible, but I don’t think that will get it done. We also don’t know if the Mets
1) won’t trade Thor/deGrom and are just listening
2) want to trade them both this winter
3) will consider only overpays, likely waiting at least until the summer to have a clear idea

Kiley McDaniel: So the price for option 2 and option 3 are probably different, since option 3 either gets an overpay or no deal

Kiley McDaniel: And until the BVW administration makes some moves, we don’t really know where they stand or how they value players, etc.

Meg Rowley: Good morning (afternoon) and welcome to the chat!

Sad Mariners Fan: If Dipoto does the right thing and trades Diaz, what would a reasonable return be? I saw an article recently in the atheltic saying they wouldn’t be able to net two top 100 prospects and I initially dismissed it as wrong. Is it?

Meg Rowley: Two top 100 guys feels like too much. A top 100 guy and a guy with promise feels closer. Diaz is amazing and has a bunch of team control left, but he’s also a reliever (albeit a really good one!) who throws hard with a delivery that isn’t exactly relaxing.

And Now, This: If you were one of the other 29 GMs, would you ever trade for one of Van Wagenen’s former clients on the Mets roster? If it was me I think I’d always be wondering: “What does he know about the player that I don’t?”

Meg Rowley: I think it’s an underreported concern in all of this. As Sheryl wrote this morning, the Mets and Van Wagenen’s answers to questions surrounding his potential conflicts of interests don’t fully address the issue.

Meg Rowley: It’s quite surprising to me that this hasn’t been a bigger issue just generally, particularly with the union.

Dan Szymborski: Noonish: A time for chats, chatting and chaterations.

Darragh: Russell Martin for Jason Vargas and/or Anthony Swarzak? Is this close to being plausible for both teams?

Dan Szymborski: Meh, not really interested in that return from the Blue Jays side.

Dan Szymborski: If you’re not getting a more interesting piece in return, I’d rather just keep Martin around as the veteran backup to Jansen

Pog: Can we assume that players not on the trade value list have less than the ~$40M that the guys at the back of the list do?

Dan Szymborski: That would be a good assumption!

Kiley McDaniel: Here I am, a bit ahead of schedule given the vagaries of holiday family blah blah blah

Kiley McDaniel: I wrote up the Paxton trade prospects yesterday here: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/updating-the-prospects-in-…

Kiley McDaniel: Eric wrote up the CLE/TB trade: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/cleveland-swaps-teenage-athlete-for-pi…

Kiley McDaniel: and we have the STL list up, PIT list is already done, coming Monday and here’s the primer on the changes to THE BOARD: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/the-board-updated-for-2019…

Tumbler, Whiskey: You were brilliantly composed on MLB Network yesterday. Nice job. That is all.

Kiley McDaniel: Thanks! Yes, I also did that.

Meg Rowley: Hello, and welcome to the chat! A moment while I communicate with a writer of FanGraphs dot com.

Meg Rowley: Ok, hello, here I am. A Meg ready to chat!

John : How worried should teams be about harper’s defense?

Meg Rowley: I think anytime you’re going to give potentially $300 million to a free agent, you worry about everything. It has been identified as a weaker part of his game, and defense declines over time, but I don’t think it will alter the eventual value a tremendous amount.

Meg Rowley: The evaluation of defense is one of the places where the gap between public side analysis and team’s internal stuff is the biggest. Which isn’t to say that the assessment of Harper is wrong. But it is a place where they know a lot more than we do.

Nate: Are you on record with where you think Harper winds up?