Archive for Chat

Jay Jaffe: Howdy folks, good afternoon and welcome to another edition of my Thursday chat. I’m still digesting my amazing weekend at the Hall of Fame inductions in Cooperstown and neck deep in Replacement Level Killers, the fifth installment of which — corner outfielders — should be up soon. Obviously, there are a lot of questions about the July 31 trade deadline, so let’s get to it.

Fry: Is pressure building up in the market that’s going to explode before the 31st or is this going to be an uneventful deadline?

Jay Jaffe: I think we’ll see a lot of deals in the coming days. This breakdown from last year, compiled by the great Eric Stephen of True Blue LA, is worth bearing in mind:
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Last year:

4 trades during the All-Star break
1 trade on July 21
1 trade on July 22
1 trade on July 24
2 trade on July 25

Then the floodgates, 35 trades over the final 6 days (18 on July 31)
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Thus I suspect we’ll start seeing a trickle of deals soon, and then a flood.

Niles: When it comes to acquiring Bauer, how much does his possible effect on the clubhouse come into play? The MVP Machine really spells out how much the Indians had to accommodate him and how he still alienated teammates, but on the flip side it also spelled out how helpful he was when it came to preaching his craft.

Jay Jaffe: I would imagine it’s a factor but one individualized to each team — he’s obviously not going to the Astros given the presence of Alex Bregman and Gerrit Cole, for example. I suspect that the execs of any teams who are serious about acquiring him are discreetly discussing his potential reception with a few clubhouse leaders for some added input. But talent still carries the day, and his is considerable, particularly in a market that’s stretched pretty thin and one in which some of the other top targets — Bumgarner, Syndergaard — might not be dealt after all.

gashouse gorilla : Which teams do you think might me opportunistic at deadline, both buying low and selling? Teams with economic capacity to perhaps get into a 3-team trade to take salary in return for prospects

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL back on my normal chat day. Scout is napping nearby after some solid pre lunch zoomies.

Kiley McDaniel: Most importantly, my smoked wings really came out well, but also dabbled in some bacon wrapped ricotta dates and grilled peach burrata the last few days. Gonna try to smoke some ribs at some point this week, too.

Kiley McDaniel: on the baseball end of things, some cool stuff dropped today

Kiley McDaniel: video from Luis Patino from the Futures Game:

Kiley McDaniel: lots more of that at that twitter account and @fangraphs in instagram

Kiley McDaniel: also we unveiled our dynamic farm rankings and they are very purty after some hard work from Sean Dolinar: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/farm-system-rankings-are-now-o…

Meg Rowley: Hi all, and welcome to the chat. Allow me one more moment of marching orders relaying, and then we’ll get started.

Meg Rowley: Ok, here we go.

Meg Rowley: Hello, baseball folks.

Jimmy: I’m not sure if you do fantasy questions, but would you trade a $2 Julio Rodriguez for a $27 Carlos Correa – currently in 1st, but hate trading away the next best thing!

Meg Rowley: I do not do fantasy questions, mostly because I don’t know anything and would give bad advice.

Xolo: As a fan, how do you handle your team adding a player who you dislike for off the field reasons?

Dan Szymborski: And the chat has begun.

Dan Szymborski: I wasn’t going to address this, but there are a *lot* of questions and comments on the topic, so I’m going to make a quick comment and then no more on the subject.

Dan Szymborski: Jonah Keri is someone who I’ve known for a long time and the allegations are as completely and utterly shocking to me as to anyone else.

Dan Szymborski: His alleged conduct is frighteningly awful and I hope the justice system works as it is supposed to.

(not that) James: ZIPS has Soto projected for 48 HR in 2021.  Given his career AVE (89.6) and LA (7.7), does that seem a bit aggressive?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has backed off that somewhat – remember these are preseason runs.

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL! Scout is sitting in her bed next to me, resting after we Trade Valued so hard it affected our sleep patterns.

Kiley McDaniel: Check out the series via the widget at the top of any page to see the whole deal https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-trade-value-1-to-10/

Kiley McDaniel: some other pieces that have come out in the last week to check out if you haven’t already:

Kiley McDaniel: Craig on some meta stuff with the Trade value list: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-trade-value-series-skews-young-again/

Kiley McDaniel: Eric on a weird TBR-TEX trade: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-rays-and-rangers-swap-prospects/

Kiley McDaniel: Herzenberg on some Cape looks: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/prospect-dispatch-cape-cod-league/

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon folks, and welcome to The Chat That Almost Wasn’t. I was scheduled to appear on MLB Now today, with a production meeting in this time slot but last night’s Yankees rainout led to a doubleheader whose opener will be aired on MLB Network, consigning my planned soft on this weekend’s Hall of Fame inductions to the vapors.

Anyway, lots on tap. I’ll be appearing tonight in NYC as part of the Varsity Letters tribute to the late Jim Bouton (https://lpr.com/lpr_events/gelf-magazine-varsity-letters-july-18-2019/). After driving up to Cooperstown tomorrow, I’ll be signing and selling copies of The Cooperstown Casebook on Saturday (https://www.facebook.com/events/2256500964601525/), and then speaking at a SABR meeting on Sunday evening (

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Eppler: Have you met Tim Mead? Any first impressions?

Jay Jaffe: I have not, but i’m hoping to this weekend. I have heard nothing but great things about him in his capacity with the Angels, and I hope that translates to his work at the Hall, but i have no idea where he stands on some of the issues I hold dear as compared to his predecessor. (Hmmm, that gives me an idea…)

Guest: Wow, I just looked at Xander Boegarts’ DRS numbers and he has been worst in baseball bad every year by a wide margin. Any idea what’s going on here? UZR thinks he’s neutral.

Jay Jaffe: Woof, -14 DRS compared to 0.4 UZR, and a similar contrast last year. First and foremost, let’s remember that UZR specifically does not account for shifts (which are plays made out of zone), and also has a lot of regression built into it.  The Red Sox have yielded a .307 wOBA on shifts, the 8th-worst in MLB. So maybe some of it is that. And some of it must be range, but I’m not totally sure.

Just for FanGraphs: I was reading a BBC article on Instagram because I saw Mike Trout’s name, and was happy to see you quoted heavily as an expert on Mike Trout’s accomplishments.  How much attention do you think baseball will have in Europe thanks to the London games

Eric A Longenhagen: Hey, sorry you guys had to wait. Wrapped a call about the international stuff just now, let’ get to it…

Eric A Longenhagen: Only big thing to point to is that we put spin rate for most of the 2019 draft picks on The Board: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-…

CJ: Michael Baumann has been really good in Double A, including a no hitter last night. What is his ceiling?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s working really heavily with his fastball and a harder cutter (new pitch this year) while other pitches take a back seat. There may be a repertoire depth issue that makes it hard for him to be a traditional starter, but he looks like a good big league arm of some kind now. He’s broken out, certainly, I just wouldn’t expect him to be a star rotation piece.

CJ: Any DSL guys that you are excited about that may not be well known?

Eric A Longenhagen: There’s relatively no lag on when we know about someone and stick them on The Board, so almost everyone we have info on is on there. I have two more Blue Jays DSL names I need to ask around on (Montero and D’Ozoria). I guess Alvin Guzman is one we have stuffed really good

Meg Rowley: Hi all! We’ll get started in just a second. Allow me to fetch a glass of water and issue some editing marching orders.

Meg Rowley: Ok, water acquired.

Meg Rowley: Couple of links of interest before we get started.

Meg Rowley: As you’ve probably seen, Kiley is off and running with the Trade Value Series.

Meg Rowley: Today’s installment can be found here, and has links to the prior entries: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-trade-value-31-to-40/

Meg Rowley: Also, RosterResource depth charts are now at FanGraphs!