Kiley McDaniel: Sorry for the delay, family was just packing up and leaving so had to see them off. First Christmas in the new house is now completed and it’s still standing. Now to finish up some NL East lists, finalize the draft update, make plans for NYE and chat with you people

Kiley McDaniel: I think the lists will go Phillies then Mets then it looks like we’re headed to the AL East.

Seth: Andrew Vaughn going to be the first strictly 1b to go in the top 5 in a long time?

Santa’s Marginal: Right now- Witt Jr or Abrams?

Kiley McDaniel: Yep, that’s how it looks right now re: Vaughn. Again, here’s the current draft board (https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-mlb-draft?type=0&te…) and the update will just be sliding 10-12 names around and expanding the end of it, mostly moving guys around in the middle of the list.  Vaughn is in the 50 FV tier behind the clear #1 Rutschman and that 2 thru 12 could be in a lot of orders. Since Vaughn is a track record college hitter, he’s probably in the top half of that tier, but it’s still super early, so guys will move with performance in season.

Kiley McDaniel: And on Abrams/Witt, its probably about 50/50 in the industry right now and they’re both in that tier. I think we’ll basically have them back-to-back in the update, so it’s more deferring the decision until we get more info.

Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

Jeff Sullivan: The baseball chat that interferes with my ability to write about this morning’s three-team exchange!

AJ: Odds harper ends up in LA?

Jeff Sullivan: Based on nothing — 40%?

Xolo: Did the Rangers just give Profar away?

Eric A Longenhagen: Hey, everyone. It’s been a while since we’ve chatted. I’ll spare you the list of links to things written since then and just remind everyone that fangraphs.com/prospects is where all of it ends up.

Mike: I know you hate when people compare prospect lists, but I’ve seen three top 10/30 lists for the Cubs and one Paul Richan was ranked #5 and the other two, he wasn’t ranked at all. Is there a wide range of opinions on him?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think there is a wide range of opinions. I’d be surprised if anyone had an eval outside of the #4/5-6th starter range and I think the disparity in rankings comes from how various publications value that type guy, not the eval itself.

The West is Wild: The Diamondbacks will have a large bonus pool in 2019. Is there any kind of general trend of how teams with similarly large pools have strategized? This situation seems unique to me as their pool is big without having a top 5 pick…

Eric A Longenhagen: You’re kind of at the mercy of the talent structure of the draft class and where other teams with multiple picks select in relation to you. Like Philly had a ton of money in the Moniak draft but the tier of preps they wanted to spend the extra money on was scooped up by teams who had extra picks before their second one. Kansas City just kinda stuck to their board last year and got a bunch of good value college picks, they didn’t play games at all.

Eric A Longenhagen: There are countless scenarios and variables teams can’t control. What is best for ARI to do will be more obvious 4 months from now.

Jay Jaffe: Hey folks and welcome to the last pre-Xmas version of my FanGraphs chat for the year. Lots of questions in the hopper already so let’s get to it…

Scott: Does Baines’ election open the door for Nick Markasis in Cooperstown?

Jay Jaffe: I suppose it’s possible 30 years down the road, but I think people are misunderstanding the ramifications of Baines’ election. By and large, the BBWAA voters, who as a group rejected Baines at a 94-95% clip five times, aren’t going to take a crony-driven bag job as something that represents a new standard, and just elect any player who gives 3,000 hits a run but falls short. if Markakis gets there, he’ll likely be the least decorated player to do so, and it will be interesting to see how voters react, but when we’ve got 8x Gold Glovers being ignored, I have a hard time imagining such a relatively un-decorated player getting in.

Nate: What chances do you see Tulo going to the Pirates?

Jay Jaffe: I think there are several teams looking into the possibility of signing Tulo. Given his California ties and the fact that they made the playoffs last year, I’d put more money on the A’s landing Tulo than the Pirates. Then again, if a team like Pittsburgh can offer him a clearer path to 500 PA (as if his body can cooperate), maybe there’s something there.

Dan: How widely known is it that there’s a whole museum that is separate from the actual Hall at the HOF? Lots of coverage doesn’t make that clear, and I think it influences people’s opinions on who should be voted in.

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL. Nationals list coming soon, I would guess tomorrow with the Mets and Phillies both being worked on right now, but may be held until post Christmas. Sounds like AL East will come next.

Kiley McDaniel: Also the winter meetings pushed back the draft list update but that’s also basically done and coming soon and I think we’re recording a podcast in the next 24-48 hours

Kiley McDaniel: Now to your questions

Lilith: Who from the Reds system are you most excited to see break out next year who might not be a well known prospect (yet)?

Kiley McDaniel: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-33-prospects-cincinnati-reds/

Kiley McDaniel: There’s the list. Some higher variance guys to keep an eye on would be the top righties from the last draft class (Josiah Gray moreso than Lyon Richardson), SS Jose Garcia, RF Danny Lantigua, RHP James Marinan, 2B Cash Case

Meg Rowley: Hello all!

Meg Rowley: And welcome to the chat. It is very nice to be back here with you after our jaunt to Vegas.

Dann: Why would anyone, let alone a contender like the Cubs, invest 2 years and $5m into Daniel Descalso, who can’t play shortstop, when Ian Happ and David Bote each offer basically the same flexibility with considerably more upside at less cost?

Meg Rowley: Because he’s made some adjustments that make him much more interesting, everyone needs a bench, and it isn’t very much money.

Meg Rowley: Jeff’s piece on this is good: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/the-quietest-swing-changer…

pelkey: Since you’re a Vegas expert now, what would you say the odds are haniger gets traded?

Epic Mike Francesa : Thoughts on Ramos signing?

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s decent. Just hope the Mets stay out of Castellanos nonsense.

Dan Szymborski: And hello!

Dan Szymborski: Keeping this week to a strict hour; came back from Winter Meetings from a nasty cold and I keep almost dozing off in my chair

Vladdito: Hi Dan, what do Kevin Pillar and Justin Smoak bring back to the Jays (esp if they go to the Giant and Rockies)? Thanks!

Dan Szymborski: You’ll get a couple of real prospects for the pair. There’s some value there.

Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

Lunar verLander: Do you consider Die Hard a Christmas movie?

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t care

Robbie: Who plays 1B for the Rays next year? Everything I’ve seen points to Yandy Diaz being better at 3B and Ji-Man Choi being a butcher in the field

Jeff Sullivan: I think there’s still a decent chance the answer isn’t yet in the organization

Jay Jaffe: Hey gang! Welcome to my Thursday chat, post Winter Meetings edition. I had a very good time in Las Vegas despite the dreadful layout of Mandalay Bay and the even more dreadful lack of sleep it took to get me both there and back while fulfilling my professional and personal obligations. I can only hint at how great it is to work with my fellow colleagues at FanGraphs. Anyway, there’s plenty to discuss this week, but I don’t know a damn thing about the Rule 5 draft, so please don’t ask.

Nick: Hi Jay! As a journalist, what is the most excited part of being at the Winter Meetings?  I’m sure it’s a great experience, but I’d imagine there’s quite a bit of waiting around.

Jay Jaffe: it’s great when there’s a big transaction — signing or trade — to cover on deadline but the moves for this one didn’t really rise to that standard, particularly compared to my last couple of meetings in 2014 and 2015. On a personal level, it’s awesome to see so many people whose work I respect and admire, and lately, to hear people say such kind things about my work.

Tim: What does it say about the Veteran’s committee that one of their members simply could not act like an adult on national TV when discussing their decision to include Baines? To me it says they can’t attempt even the pretense of objectivity, further hurting their credibility among the public.

Jay Jaffe: Yeah, I haven’t read the full transcript of La Russa’s comments but what I’ve seen was an embarrassment.

This applies less to La Russa than to Jerry Reinsdorf, but here’s one weird trick the Hall of Fame could do to increase the credibility of the small committees: PROHIBIT ANY EMPLOYER FROM BEING ON A COMMITTEE WHERE HE CAN VOTE FOR HIS EMPLOYEE. Second to that, make the committee large enough (maybe double in size?) with enough neutral parties (i.e., journalists and actual historians) that somebody as closely linked as a player’s ex-teammates and managers is forced to abstain from the vote on that particular candidate. It does not seem too much to ask, and yet it apparently is.

troke: Do you have any prediction of the likely landing spot for Harper and Machado?

Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

Jeff Sullivan: Been a busy week! Going to be a busy week!

aw: Hey Jeff, what are your thoughts on DRC+?

Jeff Sullivan: Seems initially promising but I haven’t had the time this week to actually dig in. Probably going to be airplane reading tomorrow

Jeff Sullivan: Don’t otherwise have anything substantive to say. Not sure I agree with the park factors but I also can’t say that and mean it without yet fully understanding the methodology