Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to my first chat of the playoffs. Apologies that it’s been so long — on-site coverage, late nights, and quick turnarounds have made it hard to keep up here.

Jay Jaffe: Anyway, I’m glad we’ve been treated to some awesome playoff games and series. Last night’s ALCS Game 7 was a classic and a heartbreaker. As happy as I am for the Blue Jays fans in my life, i’m gutted for the Mariners fans — a group that includes colleagues and family.

Jay Jaffe: Yesterday I wrote about Vladimir Guerrero’s postseason for the ages https://blogs.fangraphs.com/vladimir-guerrero-jr-s-postseason-for-the-…. his wRC+ this October slipped from 302 to 280 during last night’s win, dropping from 2nd since the start of division play in 1969 to 4th. Still impressive!

Jay Jaffe: Anway, let’s get on with the show

sodo mojo: I feel like watching Naylor in the playoffs he has to be a priority signing for the Mariners this offseason  do you think 3 years 60M gets it done or is he going to get a 4 year deal given his age?

Jay Jaffe: Heading into his age-29 season, coming off a very good season and the October showcase that he’s had, he has every reason to seek a deal longer than three years. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s after something much longer than that. I do believe the Mariners will make him a priority, but they shouldn’t wimp out. They were so close to that elusive World Series trip this year, and going back to skimping on quality players is going to reduce their chances of getting to the next step.

Eric A Longenhagen: Hello hello, it’s a gorgeous Fall day in Tempe and I’ve got a packed schedule that will likely compress today’s chat. I’m going to allow a couple minutes for some more questions to flow in before we begin in earnest.

Alex: What have you made of the Nationals’ hirings and how do you expect them to handle key players differently than the past regime?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think the way things have trended in Boston from a talent acquisition and development standpoint have been very positive, and I’d be stoked to have the people chiefly responsible for that helming my club. They’re young kids with a lot of juice, too. Let’s see how things continue to trend, but this feels like a strong start.

J Edna Hoover: Luke Adams isn’t just a right handed Tyler Black because…

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s much more physical than Black, but the power piece of it is still below what I’d consider impactful at 1B.

Nuxie: Josh Baez- thoughts on his prospects and are you a believer in the improved approach

Eric A Longenhagen: Howdy, y’all, it’s cloudy and rainy here in Tempe as the weekend slate has been disrupted by the remnants of Hurricane Priscilla. We need to precip, though, so it’s all good. Looks like starters for tomorrow’s game got moved up a day? At least it appears Rhett Lowder has. Let’s discuss…

Hazmat Corntail: Where do you see Jonathan Long fitting in long term with the Cubs, or does he need a trade? He seems pretty blocked right now

Eric A Longenhagen: Multi-positional part time corner guy

Ben: Hey Eric, hope you’re doing well. Who are you most excited about seeing in the AFL and why is it Alfredo Duno?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s honestly just the guys I haven’t seen, or at least haven’t seen in a while, which is almost always players from orgs based in Florida.

Eric A Longenhagen: Also, and perhaps this was already reported but clearly I’m off the socials so I don’t know, Josue De Paula has a hammy thing and is probably a couple weeks out.

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe, where we’ll hit 100 degrees again today, hopefully for the final time this calendar year.

Eric A Longenhagen: I did an end of year update to the Top 100 Prospects list. The piece with all the writing is still with editing and will be published at some point today, but for now you can view the fresh list over on The Board.

Eric A Longenhagen: The Board | FanGraphs Baseball

Eric A Longenhagen: Today is Fall League Media Day and also one of the last days remaining on the instructional league calendar, so this will likely be more of a 45 minute chat today so I have the option of hitting both.

Rube: What happens in an expansion draft and what excites you about it?

Eric A Longenhagen: It probable the rules would be different from the last time MLB had one (like ’96 ish I wanna say?) but essentially teams got to protect 15 players on their roster from selection. The expansion team(s) gets to take a player from each other club in “round one”, and then those clubs get to protect a few more of their players before round two (I think it was three more guys)…

David Laurila: Happy postseason, all.

David Laurila: I’ve seen each of the Guardians and Tigers in-person six times this month, so I have a decent feel for this series.

David Laurila: And despite their records over the past month, I favor the visiting team in this series — unless the Tigers don’t win with Skubal on the mound.

Pocket Pancakes: Favorite pitching matchup today?

David Laurila: Crochet-Fried, but Skubal-Williams is close. Gavin Williams is really good.

Dan Szymborski: G’afternoon!

Eric A Longenhagen: Howdy from the gear-covered kitchen island in Tempe. We did it, guys. It was 105 yesterday and the high today is 87. It’s over, we earned it, party at the FG Desert Vista Compound on Sunday.

Jeb: Out of all the Pirates young pitchers, which one would you trade for a bat? What could they fetch back in return?

Eric A Longenhagen: I wonder if Chandler is the best candidate to trade, it might take him longer to polish up and make big impact than the current FO group has to make the team good.

Eric A Longenhagen: What would the return be? In a space like this, I feel like I’d just be bs’ing you if I offered names.

APBA Baseball 4ever: Hagen Smith and Noah Schultz – how many starts do you see each of them getting in the majors next year? If the answer is zero for Smith, that’s okay. Could you see Schultz getting 15+? Could you see Smith coming up in September?

Eric A Longenhagen: Schultz I’d put on pace for a September call up and Smith I don’t think will see the bigs until late the following year.

Dan Szymborski: “Give me an introduction message for a Dan Szymborski FanGraphs chat that sounds like it’s from a deranged person with limited connection with reality and an obsession with history who also really really like FanGraphs”

Dan Szymborski: “Friends, Romans, countrymen, lend me your WAR calculations! I rise today in this digital amphitheater not as Caesar, not as Napoleon, but as a humble pilgrim trudging across the blood-soaked battlefields of history in pursuit of a single shining truth: FanGraphs is the Rosetta Stone of civilization. When Rome collapsed, did the barbarians have wOBA? No. When Napoleon marched on Moscow, did he consult ZiPS projections? He did not — and look what happened! Yet here we stand in the Year of Our Lord 2025, blessed to witness the holy gospel of OBP+, xFIP, and Dan Szymborski’s inscrutable oracles. I have not slept in three nights, my parakeet now knows what BABIP is, and I carved the FanGraphs logo into the oak desk of my landlord while screaming about FIP- minus. Brothers, sisters, eternal strugglers against the darkness of ignorance, we gather not to talk of weather or bread, but of spin rates and aging curves, of regression to the mean and the cruel march of time itself! History collapses into the present momen

Guest: I’ve always assumed that hitters with large platoon splits would age more poorly than those with more balanced splits, but recently realized that my evidence was entirely anecdotal. Is there significant statistical evidence that supports this? Thanks.

Dan Szymborski: I have not found this. It’s possible simply that they’re more exploitable, that the general declines makes them more obviously platoonable than a similarly talented player with small splits

Dan Szymborski: Like the 350/500 guy an ages to be a 330/450 guy and still hits 310/430 and 340/460

Dan Szymborski: But maybe the PLATOONY 350/500 guys is suddenly now a 280/350 and 390/550 guy where he once awas a 300/400 and 420/600 guy

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning, everyone. I just got back from visiting family in PA and am looking forward to starting the mental lawnmower again. Let’s get to as many of your questions as possible in the next hour-ish.

Taker55: Can Spencer Jones fake it in CF enough for the Yankees to run him out there next year? The price tags for Grisham and Bellinger go up by the week.

Eric A Longenhagen: I think you add him to the 40-man but need redundancy at the position in case he can’t make enough contact to be good. They should try to re-sign one of those guys or seek an alternative option. I don’t think it’s advisable to just hand the job over to a guy striking out as much as Jones does with no other option.

Rob: With Lara getting promoted today, what looks good with him despite the awful AAA numbers?

Eric A Longenhagen: This is Jhancarlos Lara, btw. He throws really, really hard. I wouldn’t add him if you’re in your fantasy championship series or anything, he’s too wild to trust in that way.

Pudge: How much has your view on Connelly Early shifted in the last couple weeks?