The Arizona Diamondbacks might have the best middle-infield duo in MLB, which is something most people outside of their fanbase probably aren’t aware of. Mike Hazen didn’t disagree when I suggested as much to him in Las Vegas.

“We’ve always dealt with that,” the D-Backs general manager replied. “We play on the West Coast — we play late for the East Coast — and we’re not on national TV a lot, so it comes with the territory. But yeah, [Geraldo] Perdomo probably had a top-five season in all of baseball this year, and [Ketel] Marte does it every year. With those two guys, along with [Corbin] Carroll, I think we have three of the top 25-30 guys in all of baseball.”

That was certainly the case in 2025. Carroll, the club’s right-fielder, ranked seventh-best in MLB with 6.5 WAR, while the keystone combination came in at fifth-best (Perdomo at 7.1) and 24th-best (Marte at 4.6) respectively. Productive bats were a big reason for that. Carroll put up a 139 wRC+, Perdomo was a tick below at 138, and Marte was fourth-highest in the senior circuit at 145.

How long Arizona’s middle infield will remain intact is currently in question. Rumors that Marte — on tap to gain 10-5 rights in the coming season — could be traded have been circulating, and while Hazen has reportedly said that moving the 32-year-old second baseman is “mostly unlikely,” he has also acknowledged a need to listen to offers. Howe many of those he has received to this point is unknown, but given Marte’s résumé — the three-time All-Star has a 140 wRC+ and 15.3 WAR over the past three seasons — the return would be noteworthy. Read the rest of this entry »

One of my favorite annual exercises is a quick and dirty assessment of every team’s 40-man roster situation. Which prospects need to be added to their club’s 40-man by next Tuesday’s deadline to be protected from the Rule 5 Draft? Which veterans are in danger of being non-tendered because of their projected arbitration salary? And which players aren’t good enough to make their current org’s active roster, but would see the field for a different club and therefore have some trade value? These are the questions I’m attempting to answer with a piece like this. Most teams add and subtract a handful of players to their roster every offseason — some just one or two, others as many as 10. My aim with this exercise is to attempt to project what each team’s roster will look like when the deadline to add players arrives on Tuesday, or at least give you an idea of the names I think are likely to be on the table for decision-makers to consider.

This project is completed by using the RosterResource Depth Charts to examine current 40-man occupancy and roster makeup, and then weigh the young, unrostered prospects who are Rule 5 eligible in December against the least keepable current big leaguers in the org to create a bubble for each roster. The bigger and more talented the bubble, the more imperative it is for a team to make a couple of trades to do something with their talent overage rather than watch it walk out the door for nothing in the Rule 5.

Below you’ll see each team’s current 40-man count, the players I view as locks to be rostered, the fringe players currently on the roster whose spots feel tenuous, and the more marginal prospects who have an argument to be added but aren’t guaranteed. I only included full sections for the teams that have an obvious crunch or churn, with a paragraph of notes addressing the clubs with less intricate roster situations at the bottom. I have the players listed from left to right in the order I prefer them, so the left-most names are the players I’d keep, and right-most names are the guys I’d be more likely to cut. I’ve italicized the names of the players who I believe fall below the cut line. As a reminder, players who signed at age 18 or younger must be added to the 40-man within five seasons to be protected from the Rule 5, while those signed at age 19 or older must be added within four. Brendan Gawlowski examined the National League yesterday, so be sure to check that out too. Let’s get to it. Read the rest of this entry »

Kyle Hendricks announced his retirement as the GM Meetings were getting underway earlier this week, which presented a good opportunity to get learned perspectives on how “The Professor” pitched effectively at baseball’s highest level despite a fastball that rarely exceeded 90 mph. Moreover, it provided a chance to ask if teams should be trying to develop more pitchers like Hendricks, rather than focusing so heavily on power arms.

Three executives at the just-completed meetings struck me as likely to have especially good insight into those subjects. Here is what they had to say about both the Dartmouth College product, and how difficult it is to develop pitchers who can succeed in the way that he did.

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JED HOYER — CHICAGO CUBS

Hendricks spent 11 of his 12 seasons with the Chicago Cubs, all with Hoyer serving as the team’s general manager or president of baseball operations. The first question I posed to the longtime exec was this: To what extent can, or should, teams try to develop more pitchers like Hendricks?

“That’s a great question,” replied Hoyer. “I think you’ll wait a long time before you get the next Kyle Hendricks. His command was exceptional. His changeup was exceptional. If you go back and look at his strikeout rates — I don’t know exactly when it fell down a little bit — but I would say that for six, seven years of his career, he wasn’t a power pitcher in terms of strikeout rates, but he wasn’t a finesse pitcher either. Along with not walking guys, he struck guys out. He just did it in a different way. Read the rest of this entry »

This is the time of year when people start telling me that my job must be so hard now that there’s no baseball to write about. It happens every offseason. I always protest. While it’s true that without major league games to watch, one particularly fun and fruitful source of article ideas has dried up, I actually love writing in November. The truth about who was dealing with an injury all year starts trickling out. The free agent market is shaping up. General managers are hinting at their plans. Scott Boras is unveiling a fresh batch of the worst puns imaginable. I get to dig into my notes app, where I’ve been stashing weird ideas for a rainy day. More importantly, it’s a great time to reflect on the season that was. Everything is still somewhat fresh in your mind, but you’re working with a full season’s worth of numbers. You don’t have to worry that a player’s going to dive into the world’s worst slump the moment after you write about their hot streak. You can write about players who perhaps aren’t changing the course of the season, but are interesting in their own way. It’s a great time to check the leaderboards for a surprise.

Today’s surprise appeared on the SEAGER leaderboard. That’s Robert Orr’s metric for SElective AGression, and players find their way to the top by swinging at hittable pitches and laying off bad ones. Corey Seager, forever on brand, finished the season in second place (and first in an unpublished updated version). Aaron Judge and Ronald Acuña Jr. finished first and fourth, respectively, which makes plenty of sense since they finished first and fourth in walk rate and also mashed the ball. It was third place that held the name that surprised me: Joey Bart. The 6-foot-3, 235-pound Bart has seen his numbers turn around a bit in the past two seasons. Because he’s a catcher who splits time, his numbers represent a smaller sample with more room for fluctuation, but it was still eye-opening to see him in that kind of company.

Once a Johnny Bench Award winner at Georgia Tech, the second overall pick in the 2018 draft, and the heir apparent to Buster Posey, Bart debuted in San Francisco during the shortened 2020 season and struggled with injuries and underperformance from the get-go. Over 162 games from 2020 to 2023, he batted .219 with just 11 home runs. To that point in his career, his wRC+ in the minors was 123, compared to 77 in the majors. In April 2024, after Bart had exhausted his minor league options and Patrick Bailey had impressed in his own 2023 debut, the Giants traded Bart to the Pirates. Our preseason projections saw him putting up below-average numbers both at the plate and behind it. Instead, he had a career year. Splitting time with Yasmani Grandal and 2021 first overall pick Henry Davis, Bart ran a 121 wRC+, the fourth-highest mark among catchers with at least 200 plate appearances. He bested his career total with 13 home runs. Read the rest of this entry »

For the 22nd consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction, as well as MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the first team up is the Philadelphia Phillies.

Batters

The Phillies offense kept right on rolling for another season, once again scoring nearly 800 runs, and finishing with a wRC+ of 109, the team’s best total during this era. As expected, Philadelphia’s rotation was terrific, but the offense contributed more than its fair share to the team’s 96 wins, the second most in baseball.

There are worries lurking on the horizon, however. Trea Turner had what was certainly his best season in Philadelphia, but he’s entering his mid-30s, a very dangerous time for a middle infielder. I was actually surprised to see the drop-off in the ZiPS projection for Turner, but noticed that Steamer was basically projecting the same thing. Also entering his mid-30s is Bryce Harper, who has solidified his chances of a plaque in Cooperstown, but appears to now be off his peak years. Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto are free agents, and I think both stand a real chance of returning to Philadelphia, though both are also entering the likely decline phases of their careers; indeed, Realmuto probably already has. Read the rest of this entry »

Shortstop is one of the hardest positions on the diamond to fill, especially if you want anything resembling useful offensive production from the position. Nevertheless, it has been one place where help is usually available on the free agent market.

In the four full offseasons that either straddled or succeeded the last lockout, eight different teams have signed a free agent shortstop to a contract worth $140 million or more. This includes the Rangers, who did it twice in the same winter. Read the rest of this entry »

The General Managers Meetings are currently taking place in Las Vegas, and as always, FanGraphs is on hand to report on what the executives have to say. We’ll hear from a number of them this week, beginning with a trio of National League execs, Matt Arnold of the Brewers, Paul DePodesta of the Rockies, and Chaim Bloom of the Cardinals.

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MATT ARNOLD — MILWAUKEE BREWERS

Brewers hitters had both a low strikeout rate and a relatively high walk rate this season; they ranked top five in both metrics. How was that achieved, and to what extent was it a focus?

“I think it was achieved by Murph letting people know, ‘You better put the ball in play and you better not chase,’” Arnold replied, crediting National League Manager of the Year Pat Murphy. “He’s relentless about that. Those are good things that we were able to execute this year, and it’s easier said than done. It starts with the players buying in and Murph enforcing that in the dugout, making sure our guys have that as a focus: the ball-strike, the ball in play. Having those types of skills in your pocket can lead to better at-bats and better outcomes.”

Needless to say, it’s not all Murphy. Milwaukee’s hitting coaches play a role as well.

“It’s a combination of all of them,” Arnold agreed. “Our coaches do a really good job of that. They want our guys to focus on getting a good pitch to hit, and again, while it’s easier said than done, we’ve done a good job of that. We try to focus on it as much as we can in our [minor league system] Marrying your scouting and player development is also super important. We try to communicate it with both of them.”

Jackson Chourio had a perfectly acceptable 20.5% strikeout rate, but also a 5.1% walk rate that ranked lowest on the team. How does he take the next steps to better fit that mold?

“He’s so young, and so athletic, and so talented,” Arnold said of the team’s 21-year-old phenom. “He’s got every ingredient to do it. He’s already doing it at a pretty high level. Whatever he does beyond this is even more special. The sky is the limit for this kid.”

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PAUL DEPODESTA — COLORADO ROCKIES

Colorado’s new top executive is inheriting a team whose hitters had both a high strikeout rate (second-worst in the majors) and a low slugging percentage (tied for sixth worst). If he had to pick one or the other, which is more in need of improvement?

“I would say it’s not the combo we want,” said DePodesta, stating the obvious. “And it won’t ultimately be one or the other. I said earlier what we want our identity to be, in Colorado especially, but… put it this way: If that’s a dial from one to the other, it’s not necessarily going to be one or the other. We need to find the right combination for us.”

Following up, I asked the well-traveled exec if he has an idea of which direction that combination might trend.

“I do, but I probably won’t share it,” he replied. “For us, it’s how we go about scouting and developing, or even setting up a major league roster. So yeah, ultimately it will be proprietary, what we feel is going to work well for us.”

And then there is the organization’s longest-standing question: What is the best way to pitch effectively in Colorado? Is there an actual answer to be found?

“We’ll find out,” DePodesta said. “I’m encouraged. There have been plenty of successful teams in Colorado. When I was in San Diego in 2007, 2008, 2009, and obviously the teams that Buddy [Black] had in 2017 and 2018, those teams were very successful. There were teams that had winning records on the road.

“My approach, at least as of today, is that I know it’s not impossible,” he added. “It’s been done. Are there things we have to consider that other teams don’t? Probably so. Are there adjustments we’re going to have to make that will look a little different than everybody else? Probably yes, but I’m confident that it’s not impossible. We’re going to figure something out.”

One more follow-up seemed in order. Given the Rockies’ reputation of lagging behind other organizations in terms of analytics, are there maybe things that have been overlooked?

“That I don’t know,” said DePodesta, who has spent the last decade working in the NFL as the chief strategy officer of the Cleveland Browns. “I’m looking forward to diving in deeper to the organization and figuring out all the things they have tried. I have a handful of ideas right now, but I would imagine they’re pretty naïve. Coors Field has been around since 1995 [and] they’ve tried a lot of things. I don’t have to reinvent the wheel. I want to understand what all of those things were and what they felt worked, and what didn’t. I don’t want to try things a second time if they’ve already tried them.”

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CHAIM BLOOM — ST. LOUIS CARDINALS

Cardinals pitchers didn’t strike out a lot of batters this year; they were second worst in the majors. How much of a concern is that?

“It’s definitely a concern,” replied Bloom, who succeeded John Mozeliak as St. Louis’ president of baseball operations at the conclusion of the regular season. “It’s not the only thing that matters, but it does matter. Having stuff that can beat people in the strike zone, that can miss bats — both in and out of the strike zone — is really important. It’s hard to have an elite staff without being able to do that. It’s not something you want to chase at the expense of throwing strikes — you’re not trying to put people in positions where they can’t succeed, or stay healthy — but it’s super important.”

How close is Liam Doyle to helping out in that respect?

“He’ll tell us that as the season unfolds,” Bloom said of the 21-year-old southpaw whom the Cardinals drafted fifth overall this year out of the University of Tennessee. “We gave him a little taste of [pro ball] at the end; he got his feet wet a little bit. Obviously, a first full season will tell you a lot. A first full season in and of itself is a big developmental step for guys, because they haven’t been asked to pitch that regularly for that long. But he came in and showed everything you want to see. He got after his work. He showed openness, a desire to get better, a willingness to listen. There is obviously some work to do before we can call him a big leaguer, but we’re really happy with the pitcher we got.

“The player will move himself,” added Bloom. “The player tells you where he should be. If you try to force something that’s not there, you usually end up paying a price. You might end up picking the pieces up from that for quite some time. When a player is ready and you give him that opportunity, he can carry it. It’s really just what the game is telling us, letting the player’s performance and his progress on the mound carry the day.”

Balls in play are less of an issue when you have a strong defense, which St. Louis largely had in 2025. Just how strong depends on the numbers you favor. I asked Bloom if he could explain how the Cardinals led all teams in Outs Above Average, yet were well below average in Defensive Runs Saved.

“That is a bigger conversation than one we could have here today,” Bloom said. “There are some differences between those metrics, some differences in [how they] get calculated that might disproportionally help or hurt certain types of players. Sometimes those things… they usually will even out year over year. I’ve seen specific players where that might not be the case, because of certain things that the player does or doesn’t do well that some metrics favor — or don’t — but typically over the course of time, they tend to [even out].”

What does it say about the 2025 Cardinals specifically?

“I’d be hesitant to draw too much of a big picture about specific players or player seasons,” Bloom responded. “If it persists over two or three years, then we can look at it as a trend and see if there is something underlying.”

As soon as one story in baseball ends, another begins. And so, with the 2025 season dissipating into silence as the champions hoist the World Series trophy, its remnants seed the next phase of the sport’s existence out from the quantum foam. The four months between now and Opening Day feel like an interminable gap, but we have the Hot Stove League to keep the MLB baseballmatic universe rolling. That means, as has been the case for nearly a quarter of a century now, it’s time for me to start rolling out the ZiPS projections for next season.

For those new to my projections, ZiPS is a computer projection system I initially developed in 2002–04. It officially went live for the public in 2005, after it had reached a level of non-craptitude I was content with. The origins of ZiPS are similar to Tom Tango’s Marcel the Monkey, coming out of discussions I had in the late 1990s with Chris Dial, one of my best friends (our first interaction involved Chris calling me an expletive!) and a fellow stat nerd. ZiPS quickly evolved from its original iteration as a reasonably simple projection system, and it now both does a lot more and uses a lot more data than I ever envisioned it would 20 years ago. At its core, however, it’s still doing two primary tasks: estimating what the baseline expectation for a player is at the moment I hit the button, and then estimating where that player may be going using large cohorts of relatively similar players.

So why is ZiPS named ZiPS? At the time, Voros McCracken’s theories on the interaction of pitching, defense, and balls in play were fairly new, and since I wanted to integrate some of his findings, I decided (with his blessing) that the name of my system would rhyme with DIPS (defense-independent pitching statistics). I didn’t like SIPS, so I went with the next letter in my last name. I originally named my work ZiPs as a nod to CHiPs, one of my favorite shows to watch as a kid, but I mis-typed ZiPs as ZiPS when I released the projections publicly, and since my now-colleague Jay Jaffe had already reported on ZiPS for his Futility Infielder blog, I chose to just go with it. I never expected that all of this would be useful to anyone but me; if I had, I would surely have named it in less bizarre fashion. Read the rest of this entry »

In just about any sport you can name, offense is king. If you’re the one who scores the goals, the points, the runs, the whatever they call it in polo – the biscuits, maybe? – you’re going to get the plaudits. Who’s the greatest defenseman in the history of hockey? It’s Bobby Orr, of course, because he was the first great offensive defenseman. This pattern very much holds when it comes to baseball.

Among other things, the sabermetric revolution helped us codify the value of hitting relative to the other facets of the game. To wit, according to weighted runs above average – and we’re using that particular stat because, like standard baserunning and defensive metrics, it’s a counting stat that compares a player to the performance of an average player – the most valuable hitter during the 2025 season was one Aaron Judge. Judge created 82.5 more runs than the average hitter. That’s 21 runs more than any other player, and an astonishing 36 more than any other player not named Shohei Ohtani. Judge was the best offensive performer in the game by a mile, which makes him the frontrunner for the American League MVP award, even though he put up negative value as a baserunner and, depending on which metric you trust, his defense graded out somewhere between pretty good (DRS, FRV) and really bad (DRP). The best defender was Patrick Bailey, who put up 30 fielding runs, and the best baserunner was Corbin Carroll, who finished with a measly 10.3 baserunning runs. Offense is just more valuable than defense and baserunning. Here’s the distribution of values for the three portions of the game:

Read the rest of this entry »

Dustin May is a free agent. And not because he got non-tendered; he’s passed six years of service this season, and hits the open market at the tender age of 28.

I admit this one snuck up on me. May, a highly touted Dodgers prospect, stormed into prominence when he joined the L.A. pitching staff in 2019 at the age of 21. He pitched for the Dodgers in the playoffs that October and started 2020 as the no. 14 prospect in all of baseball, and spent most of the year in the rotation, garnering a few Rookie of the Year votes and making seven appearances during the Dodgers’ run to the World Series. Read the rest of this entry »