Each week, we publish in the neighborhood of 75 articles across our various blogs. With this post, we hope to highlight 10 to 15 of them. You can read more on it here. The links below are color coded — green for FanGraphs, brown for RotoGraphs, dark red for The Hardball Times and blue for Community Research.
It seems possible, maybe even likely, that a 100-win team will face off against a club with more than 10 fewer wins in a one-game Wild Card matchup. With the Yankees now 6.5 games back of the Red Sox, they are likely to get to 100 wins and play either the Mariners or A’s in the Wild Card game. In the format used 10 years ago with four playoff qualifiers, the team could’ve coasted to the finish and guaranteed entry into the division series. In the format used 25 years ago, they wouldn’t even make the playoffs without catching the Red Sox. It raises questions not only as to whether the current format is fair to the Yankees this year, but also whether it is fair in general.
First, let’s look at the standings in the American League.
| Team | W | L | W% | GB | Proj W | Proj L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Sox | 76 | 34 | .691 | 0 | 106.3 | 55.7 |
| Yankees | 68 | 39 | .636 | 6.5 | 102.4 | 59.6 |
| Astros | 69 | 41 | .627 | 0 | 101.7 | 60.3 |
| Athletics | 64 | 46 | .582 | 5 | 90.2 | 71.8 |
| Mariners | 63 | 46 | .578 | 5.5 | 90.0 | 72.0 |
| Indians | 59 | 48 | .551 | 0 | 93.7 | 68.3 |
| Rays | 56 | 53 | .514 | 19.5 | 80.4 | 81.6 |
| Angels | 54 | 56 | .491 | 15 | 78.9 | 83.1 |
| Twins | 49 | 58 | .458 | 10 | 77.4 | 84.6 |
| Blue Jays | 49 | 59 | .454 | 26 | 75.7 | 86.3 |
| Tigers | 47 | 62 | .431 | 13 | 69.2 | 92.8 |
| Rangers | 47 | 63 | .427 | 22 | 70.7 | 91.3 |
| White Sox | 38 | 70 | .352 | 21.5 | 60.7 | 101.3 |
| Royals | 34 | 74 | .315 | 25.5 | 56.8 | 105.2 |
| Orioles | 33 | 76 | .303 | 42.5 | 53.4 | 108.6 |
In discussing fairness, which is the tougher beat, it is unclear which is worse: winning 100 games and playing in a one-game playoff, or winning 90 games and not having any shot at all? I’m not sure there is a correct answer, but both are likely to happen this season in the American League. Perhaps more unfair is that Mike Trout will once again miss the playoffs, but it isn’t clear what league intervention could change the situation. It’s worth noting that a 90-win season or even a 100-win season in the American League isn’t as impressive as it typically might be with five teams projected to lose at least 90 games and three teams on their way to triple-digit losses. The bottom seven teams are expected to average 96 losses, leaving a lot of wins out there for the better teams in the league. Read the rest of this entry »
One of my favorite post-deadline activities to do is to force ZiPS to act a bit like a time machine. Not the cool kind that goes back in history and saves James Garfield or into the future to see the dependable hoverboards that we were supposed to get in 2015, but to give a bottom-line estimate of how, based on projections, the trade deadline mixed up those playoff races.
To do this, I first start with the updated ZiPS projections as of the morning of August 1st, which includes my spin on the new depth charts. There’s some variation from the
Then, I “undo” every transaction made since June 15th, both reshuffling the depth charts as if the trades never happened and removing or adding the fractional wins that players have added to their new teams since those trades. Then… ZiPS-zap-zippity-zoop… out come the new projections and a bottom line of the changes in playoff odds. Let’s start with the American League with the bottom-line playoff improvements. (We’ll get into the divisions next.)
| Team | Playoff+ |
|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners | 8.2% |
| Cleveland Indians | 0.5% |
| New York Yankees | 0.0% |
| Texas Rangers | 0.0% |
| Kansas City Royals | 0.0% |
| Detroit Tigers | 0.0% |
| Chicago White Sox | 0.0% |
| Boston Red Sox | 0.0% |
| Baltimore Orioles | 0.0% |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 0.0% |
| Houston Astros | -0.2% |
| Minnesota Twins | -0.5% |
| Los Angeles Angels | -0.7% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | -0.8% |
| Oakland A’s | -6.5% |
The rather prosaic results here demonstrate just how relatively set the American League is in 2018. Four of the teams are nearly guaranteed playoff appearances: Boston, Cleveland, Houston, and New York. The fifth playoff spot essentially has only two real contenders in the Seattle Mariners and Oakland A’s. There are a few additional questions here, mainly whether the Yankees can catch the Red Sox or Seattle can shock Houston, but after those six teams, the odds of a seventh team becoming playoff-relevant down the stretch are very long. Sure, the Angels and Rays aren’t mathematically out of the hunt by any means — they both have something better than a Dumb and Dumber “So you’re saying there’s a chance?” probability — but even those two teams didn’t act like they believed it was anything more than pure moon shot.
| Team | W | L | GB | PCT | DIV% | WC% | PLAYOFF% | PreDIV | PrePlayoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox | 107 | 55 | — | .660 | 76.6% | 23.4% | 100.0% | 77.5% | 100.0% |
| New York Yankees | 103 | 59 | 4 | .636 | 23.4% | 76.6% | 100.0% | 22.5% | 99.9% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 80 | 82 | 27 | .494 | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 1.0% |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 74 | 88 | 33 | .457 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Baltimore Orioles | 52 | 110 | 55 | .321 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
If you haven’t figured it out from the context, “PrePlayoff” represents the team’s playoff probability without any of the trades of the last six weeks.
The 2018 trade deadline has passed and, with it, dozens of prospects have begun a new journey toward the major league with a different organization. We have the prospects traded since the Manny Machado deal ranked below, with brief scouting snippets for each of them. Players highlighted in blue are not technically prospects, having exhausted rookie eligibility, but we felt they fell under our umbrella of evaluation anyway as they’ve spent a lot of time up and down in the minors this year. Plus, it’s just interesting to think about where they fit. Scouting info comes from both in-person looks and also a combination of scouts and front-office personnel to whom we are eternally grateful.
| 3:01 |
: Happy Trade Deadline Day
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| 3:01 |
: 59 minutes to go …
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| 3:02 |
: Chris Archer appears to be the biggest chip that hasn’t moved that might (probably will?)
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| 3:02 |
: Harper is apparently staying, Rizzo says
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| 3:02 |
: Who says no: Archer for Harper + international signing money?
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| 3:02 |
: Tampa ends that call quickly
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This post has been updated to reflect the Washington Post’s latest report about Harper’s availability.
Last week, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported that the Nationals, who at the time were 50-51, “might need to win three of its next four games in Miami to stave off growing internal pressure to sell.” While the team trounced the Marlins in the series’ first two games, they lost the final two, capped by a two-hit shutout by Jose Urena and three relievers on Sunday. Now 52-53, they’re 5.5 games back in the NL East and six back in the Wild Card race. On Monday night, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported that they’ve made it known that pending free agent Bryce Harper is available:
According to a source, the Nationals are making it known to other teams that Bryce Harper is indeed available.
— Mark Feinsand (@Feinsand) July 31, 2018
[Update] On Tuesday morning, via the Washington Post’s Chelsea Janes, Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo proclaimed the team’s intention to keep Harper:
Mike Rizzo just reached out with this message:
"Bryce is not going anywhere. I believe in this team."
— Chelsea Janes (@chelsea_janes) July 31, 2018
Harper, of course, is not having his best season. Though he’s first in the league in walks (84) and second in homers (25), he has struggled like never before when it comes to hitting against infield shifts; both his .240 BABIP and 42 wRC+ in such situations are career lows. In all, he’s hit .220/.369/.473 for a 121 wRC+, down from a 139 career mark, and his 1.6 WAR in 103 games is less than half of last year’s 4.9 in 111 games.
Even before Janes’ report, FanCred’s Jon Heyman suggested that Rizzo may not have been earnest about moving the 25-year-old slugger:
Some who have spoken to Nats GM Mike Rizzo believe he’s still in win-now mode. If he’s gauging interest in bryce Harper — and @Feinsand and others suggest he’s listening — it may be just to appease others. There’s still skepticism he’d make abrupt Harper trade and abandon 2018.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) July 31, 2018
That jibes with Rosenthal’s report, which suggested that money is at the root of the Nationals’ concerns, but that not all of the team’s decision-makers were onboard (a situation that may have changed in the ensuing days):
“According to sources, ownership is pushing Rizzo to sell, particularly with the Nationals projecting to be over the $197 million luxury-tax threshold. That ownership preference, first mentioned by MLB Network Radio’s Jim Duquette, is shared by some in the front office who believe it might be time to retool. Rizzo, however, is not inclined to concede, and other sources suggest ownership is simply ‘riding it out’ and waiting for Washington to play better.”
Per Cot’s Contracts, the Nationals’ payroll for luxury tax purposes is $208,548,348. As second-time offenders, they would pay a 30% penalty on the amount over the threshold, which comes to all of $3.46 million, about what they’re paying Howie Kendrick this year — peanuts, by major-league standards. For the sake of comparison, the Dodgers paid $36.2 million in taxes and penalties last year, the Nationals just $1.45 million.
Roberto Osuna made his major-league debut in 2015. Since then, among all relievers with at least 100 innings, he ranks in the 88th percentile in park-adjusted ERA. Even better, he ranks in the 95th percentile in park-adjusted FIP, and he ranks in the 95th percentile in strikeout-minus-walk rate. For the most part, when Osuna has been able to pitch, he’s been very, very good, and he’s blossomed into one of the game’s better closers. It’s just that he hasn’t pitched in the majors since May 6. Not because of an injury — Osuna’s arm, presumably, is just fine. Rather, he’s currently serving out a 75-game suspension for domestic violence. He’s eligible to return this coming weekend.
The Astros want for Osuna to return wearing their uniform. And so Monday has brought news of a trade.
The Astros are trying to repeat as World Series champions, and they identified an opportunity to land a cost-controlled, elite young reliever. Osuna’s controlled another two years after this one. The Blue Jays, meanwhile, identified an opportunity to buy low on a cost-controlled, potentially elite reliever. Giles is also controlled another two years after this one. Paulino and Perez, as well, are intriguing power-armed prospects. As a baseball trade, there’s enough here to be fascinating. But this isn’t just a baseball trade.
As reported by the indefatigable Ken Rosenthal and Emily Waldon of The Athletic, the Seattle Mariners acquired relief pitcher Adam Warren on Monday afternoon from the New York Yankees in return for bonus slot money.
Is it possible for a bullpen to be too good? Obviously, at some level, that’s a silly question: no lead is 100% safe and, consequently, a team should never stop surveying what it has. But there’s also the question of utility. Any given club is bound to play only so many high-leverage innings. While you’d rather have a good reliever in the game than a poor one, the stuff you can get in return for that good reliever may simply be more useful to your franchise. Warren has been used mainly in low-leverage scenarios this season. Consider: of the eight Yankee pitchers primarily used in relief this season who have thrown at least 20 innings, Warren’s entered the game in the second-least crucial situations overall, ahead of only A.J. Cole, who has more swingman-type utility than Warren.
Chasen Shreve has already been traded by the Yankees for similar reasons, Zach Britton’s arrival in the Bronx only making the competition for those high-pressure situations more fierce. Tommy Kahnle is still standing by if the team loses a reliever and there’s still depth remaining, including J.P. Feyereisen, who continues to refine his control, and Raynel Espinal.
| Name | gmLI | ERA | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aroldis Chapman | 1.65 | 1.93 | 1.71 |
| Chad Green | 1.49 | 2.74 | 3.29 |
| David Robertson | 1.44 | 3.61 | 2.87 |
| Dellin Betances | 1.21 | 2.44 | 2.35 |
| Jonathan Holder | 0.98 | 2.11 | 2.55 |
| Chasen Shreve | 0.85 | 4.26 | 4.98 |
| Adam Warren | 0.68 | 2.70 | 3.30 |
| A.J. Cole | 0.64 | 0.83 | 2.01 |
Just to illustrate how Warren’s skill are wasted by using him in the low-leverage innings available, just compare his performances to other relievers with 20 innings pitched and a game-entrance LI with 0.1 of Warren.
There are only 24-ish hours remaining until baseball’s trade deadline and, truth is, I’m a bit impatient. Until free agency opens up in about a hundred days or thereabouts, this is truly our last great opportunity to let our imaginations run wild. Sure, we can conjure up some fun trades in August, but our whimsical mind-meanderings just aren’t as exciting when all of the players we trade have to go through imaginary revocable waivers.
Against my worse judgment, to which I typically cater, I endeavored to make my last-minute deadline trades to retain at least a whiff of plausibility. So, no blockbuster Mike Trout deal, no winning Noah Syndergaard in a game of canasta, and no Rockies realizing that they have significant other needs other than the bullpen.
Washington’s playoff hopes have sunk to the extent that, even if you’re as optimistic as the FanGraphs depth charts are and believe the Phillies and Braves are truly sub-.500 teams as presently constructed, the Nats still only are a one-in-three shot to win the division. If you’re sunnier on Philadelphia or Atlanta, those Nats probabilities lose decimal places surprisingly quickly.
Eugenio Suárez played in the All-Star Game earlier this month, so in some respects he’s not under the radar. But in many ways, he really is. The Cincinnati Reds third baseman is slashing .301/.387/.581, and he leads the National League in both wRC+ and RBIs. Were he playing in a bigger market, those numbers would make him… well, a star. Which he is… in relative anonymity.
Opposing pitchers certainly know who he is, and that’s been especially true this past week. Going into last night, Suárez had homered in five consecutive games, raising his season total to 24. That’s two fewer than last year’s career high, which came in his third season in Cincinnati. Count the Tigers’ former brain trust among those who didn’t see this coming. In December 2014, Detroit traded the then-23-year-old to the Reds for (gulp), Alfredo Simon.
“I don’t think anything has really changed,” Suárez claimed when I asked him about his evolution as a hitter. “I just play baseball like I did before. I’ve always been able to hit, just not for power like last year and this year.”
He attributes the power surge to maturity and hard work in the offseason. Asked to compare his current self to the 17-year-old kid who signed out of Venezuela in 2008, Suárez said the biggest difference is physicality. Read the rest of this entry »
