On Tuesday, we published an update to our 2022 Draft rankings. Today, I pushed 2023 and 2024 to The Board, with the small 2024 group consisting almost entirely of our highly-ranked, unsigned 2021 high schoolers.

The most significant takeaway from the 2023 class is its projected strength at the top. There’s currently only one 50 FV prospect in the 2022 class, but already three atop the 2023 group: Ole Miss shortstop Jacob Gonzalez, Wake Forest third baseman Brock Wilken, and LSU outfielder Dylan Crews. That’s more than has been typical for a class that’s still a year and a half away from draft day. Gonzalez has special bat-to-ball skills and can play a premium position, Wilken already has 70-grade raw power and rare athleticism for a corner defender, and Crews performed in the SEC and reinforced confidence in the huge tools that made him famous as a high schooler.

This group may eventually be joined by more prospects. Most of the college players who will be eligible in 2023 are still teenagers right now, and some of them have not even had the opportunity to play consistently as they are coming off freshman seasons at big, talent-rich programs. With a couple of obviously excellent prospects already in place at the top of the class, and so much of the rest of it still in a magmatic stage of development, the 2023 draft has a shot to be pretty special up top. Read the rest of this entry »

The Rays and Marlins love making trades. They’ve now combined for four trades this year, though this one is the most consequential. The terms are simple: Miami gets Joey Wendle and Tampa Bay gets Kameron Misner. That’s it!

Normally at FanGraphs, we try to tell you why the trade might make sense for both sides, and which way we would lean if we had to choose a winner. If we’re feeling feisty, we might throw in a joke or two, perhaps a Dick Monfort burn if Dan Szymborski is in the driver’s seat. Today, though, the two of us had wildly different views of who won this trade. So without further ado, here are Brendan’s (Marlins) and Ben’s (Rays) thoughts on which side got the best of the other in this very Floridian trade.

Brendan’s Take

Ben probably isn’t the first analyst to pan a deal where Miami sought to improve the big league club, but I can’t find much recent precedent. That the Fighting Jeters beefed up at all seems sufficient cause for celebration. MLB is at its best when teams put their top product on the field, and the Marlins often fail to clear that low threshold. But between the Avisaíl García signing, the Sandy Alcantara extension, the Jacob Stallings trade, and now the Wendle deal, the Marlins have the swagger of… well, not a contender exactly, but at least an upright major league team. Read the rest of this entry »

Ryan Kreidler isn’t the same hitter that Eric Longenhagen and Kevin Goldstein described when they put together our Detroit Tigers Top Prospects List last spring. The 24-year-old (as of last month) shortstop no longer possesses a “conservative, contact-oriented approach coupled with limited raw power.” Thanks to remaking his mindset and mechanics, Kreidler crushed 22 home runs this season while slashing a solid .270/.349/.454. Making those numbers all the more impressive is that the 2019 fourth-rounder out of UCLA put them up between Double-A Erie and Triple-A Toledo in his first full professional season.

His collegiate and short-season output had been that of a contact-oriented hitter. Kreider went deep 16 times in his three years as a Bruin, and just twice in 257 plate appearances with the New York Penn-League’s Connecticut Tigers in 2019. Dissatisfied with the dismal level of production, he went back to the drawing board.

“I wasn’t hitting the ball in the air very much,” said Kreidler, who according to Longenhagen and Goldstein lacked athleticism in the batter’s box. “I made some changes over [the 2019] offseason, then got a chance to work on them when I was home during COVID.”

The Davis, California native turned to Los Angeles-based hitting instructor Doug Latta for guidance. Read the rest of this entry »

We begin this year’s run of lists with an update to and expansion of the 2022 Draft rankings, which can now be found over on The Board. I’ll do the same for the next two draft classes later this week, and follow that with a fresh coat of paint on the International Players list, which was completed with the aid of Brendan Gawlowski, Kevin Goldstein, and Tess Taruskin. Team lists will start rolling out next week, beginning with the East Valley pod of teams (Angels, Cubs, A’s, and Brewers).

Before I talk about this draft class, here are a couple of process-oriented reminders and changes. The grading system we use here is called Future Value (you’ll typically see it abbreviated FV), which maps WAR production and player roles to the 20-80 scale. In short, a 50 FV prospect is the equivalent of a good everyday player (2-3 annual WAR), with grades above 50 telling you how good of an everyday player we expect the prospect to be. Grades below that either describe a role (for example, a 45 FV for a left-handed hitting corner platoon or set-up man, a 40 FV for fifth starters or stopgap first base sluggers, etc.) or are trying to balance upside and risk (for instance, a 50 FV talent with an injury history will get rounded down to account for that history). Read the rest of this entry »

Joe Gray Jr. possesses some of the best raw talent in the Milwaukee Brewers system. A second-round pick in the 2018 draft out of Hattiesburg (Mississippi) High School, the 21-year-old outfielder is coming off a season where he slashed .252/.355/.499 between Low-A Carolina and High-A Wisconsin. Augmenting those numbers were 23 stolen bases, 22 doubles, nine triples, and 20 home runs in 479 plate appearances. Called “a high-risk/reward prospect” by Eric Longenhagen earlier this summer, Gray Jr. capped off his 2021 campaign by competing in the Arizona Fall League with the Salt River Rafters.

Currently Milwaukee’s No. 12 prospect, per The Board, he discussed his development during the penultimate week of AFL action.

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David Laurila: To start, who are you as a hitter?

Joe Gray Jr.: “I’d say I’m still figuring it out. I’m still young and learning to let my body work how it works and not be restricted. That’s what I’m trying to do right now. But I know what I can do. I’m a guy who can drive the ball when I get a pitch out over the plate. I’ve just got to play to my strengths. As I get older and more experienced, through repetitions and at bats, I know it will come.

“Again, I can’t necessarily put too much into ‘who I am.’ I’m not going to put pressure on myself, trying to make sure I’m down with it tomorrow or even next week. This is my first full season, so I’m still trying to figure myself out.”

Laurila: Can you say a little bit more about learning your body, and not restricting yourself? Your level of athleticism is obviously high. Read the rest of this entry »

Friday’s 40-man roster/Rule 5 Draft protection deadline featured the usual flurry of transactional activity. While christening a new wave of big leaguers, the day’s moves also illuminated a secondary effect of recent farm-building trends, and indicated some shifts in the way teams are thinking about the players they do or don’t decide to protect. As I fly through each team’s additions and subtractions from Friday, I’ll flesh out these concepts where they best apply. I’ve tried to give readers a little scouting note on every player, getting into greater detail for players who aren’t yet on The Board (which is where you’ll want to go for in-depth scouting reports) or whose reports I think have meaningfully changed since they were last updated on The Board. Readers should know that when it comes to examining the reasons teams chose not to protect players on Friday, I’m using informed speculation.

Here’s a quick rundown/refresher for folks who might be new to caring about this particular aspect of roster construction. Deeper teams tend to have more good players than they can roster, and tend to lose the ones toward the bottom of their depth chart to talent-hungry clubs that consider them upgrades to the players currently on their not-so-good roster. Sometimes a team with a good big league roster will also have a large wave of quality prospects approaching the majors, and the combination of the two creates motivation to trade some of those prospects away, or else loose them for nothing via waivers or the Rule 5 Draft. The way the 60-day injured list works also impacts a lot of fringe roster movement.

There are a couple ways teams try to deal with this if they think they have more desirable players than they do roster spots. They either package several of them as part of a trade for one significant big leaguer, or deal them for very young players who are several years from needing to be added to the 40-man. Teams keep 40-man dynamics in mind with every move they make, but the period just before the 40-man/Rule 5 deadline at the end of November is almost entirely driven by them. Teams weigh adding their own prospects to the 40-man against the chances that an unprotected player might be popped in the Rule 5 Draft (and stick on their new team’s roster), as well as who they might otherwise be able to use that roster spot for. It’s a part of the baseball calendar that forces teams to make moves that help us learn about their collective behavior and individual preferences. Read the rest of this entry »

R.J. Dabovich was a strikeout machine in his first professional season. Overpowering the opposition with a two-pitch mix, the 23-year-old right-hander fanned 62, and allowed just 15 hits, in 32-and-a-third innings between High-A Eugene and Double-A Richmond. The 2020 fourth-round pick out of Arizona State University put up those numbers in 31 relief outings, a workload that was truncated by five weeks on the shelf due to a mild back strain. Currently the No. 26 prospect in the San Francisco Giants system, Dabovich represented the Scottsdale Scorpions in Saturday’s Fall Stars Game.

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David Laurila: You had the highest strikeout rate (48.8%) in the minors this year. Are you at all surprised by how dominant you were?

R.J. Dabovich: “I am a little bit. I mean, I’d never really been ‘a strikeout guy.’ At Arizona State, I was a starter in my sophomore year and was like eight or nine Ks per nine. Nothing too crazy. Moving to the bullpen bumped it up a little bit [13.1 per nine], but nothing like it was this year.

“After I got drafted by the Giants, I was given this pitch plan for what they wanted me to do. They said that my K-rate would increase, but I had no idea it would jump like it did. So I definitely surprised myself by how well I executed my plan, the plan they made for me.”

Laurila: How did you end up moving to the bullpen at ASU? Read the rest of this entry »

Mark Vientos profiles as a middle-of-the-order basher in a big-league lineup. Currently the No. 5 prospect in the New York Mets system, the 6-foot-4, 205-pound third baseman is coming off a season where he slashed .281/.352/.581 and hit 25 home runs in just 349 plate appearances between Double-A Binghamton and Triple-A Syracuse. One of the youngest players in his draft class when he was taken 59th overall in 2017 out of Plantation, Florida’s American Heritage High School, the right-handed hitting corner infielder put up those numbers at 21 years of age.

Vientos discussed his approach and early-career development prior to the end of the minor-league campaign.

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David Laurila: How would you describe yourself as a hitter?

Mark Vientos: “I like to consider myself an all-around type of hitter. A lot of people consider me just a power threat, but I feel like I can hit for average and power. As time goes on, and as I mature at the plate, I think my patience and discipline is going to be a lot better. I’m learning how they’re pitching me at these levels. Hopefully soon I’ll be at the major-league level and will be figuring out how they pitch me there.

“How teams pitch you differs, too. How the Red Sox [affiliate] pitches you might differ from how the Blue Jays pitch you. It’s about recognizing those things, but for the most part I’m looking for a fastball, because that’s the best pitch I could hit. I handle the fastball well.”

Laurila: Your writeup in this year’s Baseball America Prospect Handbook said that while you can square up most fastballs, you struggle with spin from right-handers. To what extent is that true? Read the rest of this entry »

Ryan Ward has emerged as an intriguing sleeper in the Los Angeles Dodgers system. Unranked coming into the season, the 23-year-old, left-handed-hitting outfielder swatted an eye-opening 27 home runs and logged a .278/.352/.524 slash line with the Great Lakes Loons. His long-ball total was second-highest in the High-A Central, and his 135 wRC+ was tied for third-best in the circuit. A Milbury, Massachusetts native who attended Bryant University, he was the Dodgers’ eighth-round pick in the 2019 draft.

Ward discussed his development — including the mechanical adjustment that has helped jumpstart his career — toward the tail end of the Loons’ season.

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David Laurila: Let’s start with your background. You grew up in Central Massachusetts.

Ryan Ward: “I come from a really small town. I graduated high school with something like 80 kids in my class. We were in a low division — Division-5 baseball — and I started playing varsity my eighth-grade year. I was a catcher and also played third base here and there. I kept building on that throughout high school but didn’t really get many college looks because I didn’t play travel ball and wasn’t really in showcases. I basically just played high school baseball and [American] Legion ball. I did a couple of high-school showcases, but never really got college attention until Bryant came around.”

Laurila: Opportunity aside, what made Bryant appealing? Read the rest of this entry »

Colt Keith exceeded even his own expectations this season. A fifth-round pick in the 2020 draft out of a Biloxi, Mississippi high school, the left-handed hitting Detroit Tigers prospect began his first professional campaign in the Florida Complex League, and he finished it in High-A with the West Michigan Whitecaps. Promoted to the higher-than-expected level less than three weeks after his 20th birthday, Keith had slashed a precocious .320/.436/.422 in 181 plate appearances with Low-A Lakeland.

His profile is compelling. When our 2021 Tigers Top Prospect list came out in March, Eric Longenhagen and Kevin Goldstein called Keith “one of the more intriguing two-way players in the 2020 draft,” adding that he was “seen by many teams as unsignable after the first three rounds.” Eight months after those words were written, the 6-foot-3, 215-pound infielder is no less intriguing, and more promising than ever.

Keith discussed his draft experience, and his eye-opening performance, shortly before the conclusion of the minor-league season.

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David Laurila: How did you end up signing with the Tigers rather than playing college ball at Arizona State?

Colt Keith: “I didn’t really want to go to school. That was my thing; it’s why I was willing to take less [money to sign]. After about the second or third round, I figured I wasn’t going to get picked, because teams thought I was going to go to school. But then the Tigers gave my agent a call and offered enough, so we decided to take it.”

Laurila: Why didn’t you want to go the college route?

Keith: “We looked at the positives of both sides, and the negatives of both sides, and I liked the opportunity to start my pro career at a young age. I felt like I was ready to go, that I could compete and didn’t need those three years of college to get prepared for it. On top of that, I’m not a big school guy. Getting a degree… I mean, going to school for three years just didn’t sound like a lot of fun to me.”

Laurila: That said, teams apparently thought otherwise… Read the rest of this entry »