The Guardians rate as one of baseball’s bigger surprises. After finishing 76-86 last year — their worst record since 2012 — they’ve rebounded to go 57-33 thus far, and entered Wednesday with the AL’s best record. Their offense is much more potent than it was last year, and despite losing ace Shane Bieber for the season due to Tommy John surgery, they rank second in the league in run prevention at 3.87 runs per game.

While Cleveland’s staff owns the AL’s second-highest strikeout rate (24.2%), a good amount of credit for the team’s run prevention belongs to its defense. By my evaluation of a handful of the major defensive metrics — Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating, Statcast’s Fielding Run Value (FRV), and our catcher framing metric (hereafter abbreviated as FRM, as it is on our stat pages) — the Guardians rate as the majors’ second-best defensive team thus far this season. The Yankees, who spent much of the first half atop the AL East before a 5-16 slide knocked them into second place, are the only team ahead of them.

On an individual level, even a full season of data isn’t enough to get the clearest picture of a player’s defense, and it’s not at all surprising that a 600-inning sample produces divergent values across the major metrics. After all, they’re based on differing methodologies that produce varying spreads in runs from top to bottom, spreads that owe something to what they don’t measure, as well as how much regression is built into their systems. Pitchers don’t have UZRs or FRVs, catchers don’t have UZRs, and DRS tends to produce the most extreme ratings. Still, within this aggregation I do think we get enough signal at this point in the season to make it worth checking in; I don’t proclaim this to be a bulletproof methodology so much as a good point of entry into a broad topic. Read the rest of this entry »

There are just too many players in baseball these days. I don’t mean that in a “contract the league” way – I think that there should be expansion, in fact. I’ll get back to that, for the record. The problem, instead, is with me. As teams have increasingly realized that the best way to get the most out of players is by giving them frequent rest, more people are playing relevant roles every year. Take the Giants, for example: The 2010 World Series team featured 19 pitchers, from Matt Cain’s 223 1/3 innings all the way down to Waldis Joaquin’s 4 2/3. This year’s Giants have already used 24 pitchers, and we haven’t even hit the All-Star break.

Back in those days, it was easy to know most of your team’s bullpen, as well as the regular starters. It was just fewer names to keep track of, fewer different styles and deliveries and permutations of facial hair. The present-day Giants have an honest-to-goodness pair of identical twins and a closer with his own light show. They have the tallest player in baseball. It’s a wildly eclectic bullpen. And I haven’t even mentioned their best pitcher yet, which is kind of my point. Ryan Walker is having a season for the ages, and he’s doing it in anonymity.

One “problem” with Walker – note: not actually a problem – is that he’s an archetype of pitchers we’ve seen before. He throws a sinker, and he throws a slider. He hides the ball well and throws hard. He misses bats, and always has: Starting in 2019, his first full season, he compiled a 28% strikeout rate in the minors. There’s nothing particularly novel or unprecedented about Walker’s game – it’s just effective.
Read the rest of this entry »

Juan Nieves had a promising career cut short by a shoulder injury. A 21-year-old when he debuted with the Milwaukee Brewers in April 1986, the southpaw from Santurce, Puerto Rico pitched just three big league seasons before a tear in his rotator cuff was discovered. With 490.2 innings, 32 wins, and a no-hitter already under his belt, Nieves threw his last pitch at baseball’s highest level prior to celebrating his 24th birthday.

He joined the coaching ranks not long thereafter. Nieves has been tutoring hurlers since 1992, most recently as the assistant pitching coach for the Detroit Tigers, a position he’s held since November 2020. He looked back at his playing days when the Tigers visited Fenway Park earlier this season.

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David Laurila: You faced some great hitters during your relatively short stint in the majors. How did you view those matchups at the time?

Juan Nieves: “It’s funny. Coming from Puerto Rico, I grew up watching the Pirates because of Roberto Clemente, and because of Turner Broadcasting we saw a lot of the Braves. It was more National League, and I ended up in the American League [the Brewers joined the senior circuit in 1998]. Read the rest of this entry »

The Red Sox have had quite the auspicious last few weeks. Their 16-6 record since June 12 is the best in baseball, and they’ve elevated their playoff odds to a season-high 48.0%, an excellent performance for a team that entered the year with a sub-.500 projection. In a tight AL Wild Card race, they’ve needed every single one of these recent victories, as Dan Szymborski recently found that Boston’s playoff hopes are more sensitive to small changes in the standings than those of any other team. As the trade deadline approaches, the Red Sox may find themselves in the running for big names. Much of their current success, though, is thanks to major improvements from players currently on the roster, such as pitchers Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford and catcher Connor Wong, whom Jay Jaffe wrote about yesterday. And no Red Sox player has leveled up his game more than the current team leader in plate appearances, runs scored, and WAR: Jarren Duran.

Duran’s breakout has come during his first season of full-time play; after cups of coffee in 2021 and ’22, he served as the strong side of a platoon last season, amassing a 120 wRC+ across 362 plate appearances. But there were some signs of future regression, as he outperformed his xwOBA by 35 points and relied on a .381 BABIP to slash .295/.346/.482. And while those raw numbers from 2023 have actually declined this season, to .275/.337/.473, Duran has put up a nearly identical 121 wRC+. Most encouragingly, he has much stronger peripherals backing up his slash line this year, indicating that his current production is sustainable.

The biggest change we’ve seen from Duran in 2024 is in his approach at the plate. Previously, it seemed as though his goal was to swing at anything near the strike zone and put the ball in play; he offered at the first pitch nearly 40% of the time. And while this strategy worked for him because he made a lot of contact, frequently on a line, his success depended on well-placed balls in play and didn’t make the most of his strength. Instead, it often felt like he sacrificed damage for contact, an unnecessary tradeoff given his solid bat-to-ball skills, especially on pitches in the strike zone. His power numbers last year – a 20th percentile barrel rate and 35th percentile xSLG – were far from what he was capable of.

Although Duran doesn’t look like the most physically imposing player on the field, he has excellent raw power, with maximum exit velocities over 112.5 mph in each of the past two seasons. He’s especially lethal against pitches down and in, where his bat speed, exit velocity, and overall production are all elite. Comparatively, he’s generated negative run values against pitches on the outer third or top of the zone, as his relatively long swing isn’t able to cover the needed distance in time. Understanding this, Duran has become more selective. He’s cut his first-pitch swing rate nearly in half, watching such offerings go by at nearly Mike Trout levels. He’s dropped his swing rate on strikes in his cold zones by nine points, in addition to a reduction in chase rate. The results of these adjustments has been staggering, and Duran has looked like a brand new hitter this year. Even without an increase in raw strength, Duran’s focus on swinging only at the best pitches have vaulted his barrel rate above the league average, along with his xSLG and xwOBA. Additionally, his taking more called strikes has aided more than just his power numbers: His strikeout and walk rates have actually improved with his new approach.

Remarkably, Duran legged out 34 doubles last year, 10 more two-baggers than he’s hit across 50 more trips to the plate this season. As we know, as many young players gain more experience, they learn how to turn those two-base hits into home runs — or as Kiri Oler dubbed this development, “summiting Doubles to Dingers Mountain” — so it’s not all that surprising that Duran is hitting fewer doubles as he’s added power. Except, well, he’s launching home runs at nearly the same pace as he did last year, in 2.4% of his plate appearances this season, up slightly from 2.2%. Instead, he’s managed to one-up his power production in a far less common way: He’s hitting way more triples. He’s still racking up plenty of doubles (24, tied for the fifth most in baseball), but he leads the majors with 10 triples, eight more than he hit last season. Altogether, he ranks fifth in the majors with 44 extra-base hits. He’s taking full advantage of the dimensions of his home stadium, as Fenway’s deep right-center field gap and the Green Monster in left make it the most doubles-friendly ballpark in the majors, especially for left-handed hitters, and the fifth-most triples-friendly park. This season, Duran has 18 doubles in just 133 balls in play at home. More specifically, Duran’s ability to smack balls off the Monster is absolutely unparalleled. I looked at spray charts of other prolific Red Sox hitters in recent memory – Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts – and none took advantage of their ballpark’s defining feature anywhere close to as frequently as Duran has in 2024.

Many of Duran’s 34 combined doubles and triples this year have resulted from his speed on the basepaths, fighting to take the extra bag at every opportunity. He’s always possessed plus-plus speed, and using Statcast’s new baserunning value leaderboard, we can see the run value of every single he’s stretched into a hustle double or base taken on a teammate’s hit. Duran ranks third in the league in such runs generated thanks to his aggression, and while a handful of speedsters have produced negative value from being overly cautious, Duran’s fearlessness has paid off. Aggressive baserunning has been an important part of Boston’s overall offensive improvements this year. The Red Sox have climbed to seventh in extra base taken rate compared to 25th a year ago. Statcast views them as the fourth-best baserunning team in baseball. When you combine this with Duran’s 21 steals on 24 attempts, the end result is one of the most valuable runners in the league; besides Duran, only Corbin Carroll and Elly De La Cruz are on pace to accrue 1 WAR from baserunning alone.

While Duran has solidified his approach at the plate and maintained his excellence on the basepaths, the area where he’s seen the most dramatic improvement this year is with his glove. Despite his 95th percentile sprint speed, Duran’s previous performance in the outfield, especially in center, left much to be desired; he totaled -5 FRV from 2021-23. Most of his poor plays occurred when he had to cover long distances on efficient routes; it was so bad that he made an appearance in a piece I wrote last year due to his awful route running. In that piece, I found there was a negative correlation between route efficiency and overall OAA, as an outfielder’s initial reaction and burst speed proved to be more important factors. Duran has been a key example of this: His routes are still rough, but the rest of his defensive game has improved tremendously. His +5 FRV ranks in the 89th percentile (though second to Ceddanne Rafaela in his own outfield), while only Daulton Varsho has more DRS than Duran’s 12 among outfielders.

Duran’s reactions and first steps have improved to the point where his routes haven’t impacted his ability to get to balls. Last year, he failed to make both of the difficult-but-possible plays that involved covering over 100 feet of ground to make the catch; this year he’s a perfect 4-for-4. However, the plays that have turned his defensive metrics from below average to excellent aren’t the long-distance runs but the line drives, where instincts and initial reactions are everything. In 2024, Duran has had 11 play opportunities on balls between 30 and 50 feet away from him with fewer than four seconds to make the catch. He’s converted 10 of them, contributing to half of his total OAA. While he was similarly successful at catching these hard liners in previous seasons, he had only a few such play opportunities. Duran isn’t doing anything different with his positioning this year, so it remains to be seen whether he’ll continue to get so many catch opportunities on these hard liners. Regardless, it’s safe to say that he’s made the most of the fielding chances he’s been given.

Nearing the All-Star break, the Red Sox have as close to coin-flip playoff odds as any other club, and the high stakes they’ve played under combined with their meteoric performance over the past few weeks have made them one of the most exciting teams in baseball to watch. And in the middle of it is the homegrown All-Star Duran, whose improvements have manifested in every single aspect of his game.

The Red Sox may never entirely live down the 2020 trade of Mookie Betts, but four years and change later, Boston’s last man standing from that deal is enjoying a breakout. Catcher Connor Wong just reeled off a 17-game hitting streak that spanned four weeks, and even made a case for a spot on the AL All-Star team, though he fell short on that front.

The 28-year-old Wong began his streak with a single off White Sox right-hander Jake Woodford on June 6, and added another single off Tim Hill later in the game. Despite taking a three-day paternity leave from June 24–27, he started 16 of Boston’s next 23 games, sprinkling in four other two-hit games.

With his single off Trevor Rogers last Tuesday, Wong extended his streak to 17 games, the longest by any Red Sox player this season and tied for the seventh-longest of any player this year; Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto is one of three other players who also had a 17-gamer. The longest hitting streak ever for a catcher is 34 games, set by the Padres’ Benito Santiago in 1987. The closest any catcher has come to approaching Santiago in the last decade was in 2019, when the Mets’ Wilson Ramos went 23 games; all of the other hitting streaks by catchers of at least 20 games happened in 2003 or earlier. Read the rest of this entry »

One of my favorite articles to write is the “you won’t believe how this guy is succeeding” piece. You’ve seen me – and plenty of other writers – break it out over and over again. Maybe it’s a reliever with a weird pitch, or a starter with a blazing fastball who is nonetheless succeeding with secondaries. Perhaps it’s a hitter excelling thanks to a novel approach, or a slugger altering his game to prioritize something he didn’t before. In any case, it’s fun to subvert expectations, and it makes for a good story to boot.

Spare some thought for the players who succeed by doing exactly what you think they’re doing, though. They might not garner as many headlines, but that doesn’t make what they’re doing any less real. I have a specific example of this today, someone I was hoping to write about in the former style. I went looking for the one weird trick that made him tick, but I couldn’t find one. Brent Rooker is succeeding with one extremely normal trick: Every time he comes to the plate, he tries to hit a home run.

Here’s a representative Rooker swing:

Here’s another:

You’ll notice a few things right away. He swings hard – his average swing speed matches Bryce Harper and Matt Olson. He also swings with a pronounced uppercut. Most hitters hit more home runs on high pitches, thanks to the laws of physics. Rooker doesn’t have a single homer in the upper third of the strike zone this year; he’s either annihilating pitches down the middle or lifting low balls over the fence. Read the rest of this entry »

Dylan Cease was one of my interview targets when the San Diego Padres visited Fenway Park last weekend, and as part of my preparation I looked back at what I’d previously written about him here at FanGraphs. What I found were three articles partially derived from conversations I had with the right-hander when he was in the Chicago White Sox organization. One, from 2020, was on how he was trying to remove unwanted cut from his fastball. A second, from 2019, was on how he’d learned and developed his curveball. The third, from 2018, included Cease’s citing “body awareness and putting your hand and arm in the right spot” as keys to his executing pitches consistently.

And then there was something from November 2017 that didn’t include quotes from the hurler himself. Rather, it featured plaudits for his performances down on the farm. In a piece titled Broadcaster’s View: Who Were the Top Players in the Midwest League, Cease was mentioned several times. Chris Vosters, who was then calling games for the Great Lakes Loons and more recently was the voice of the NHL’s Chicago Blackhawks, described a high-90s fastball, a quality curveball, and an ability to mix his pitches well. Jesse Goldberg-Strassler (Lansing Lugnuts) and Dan Hasty (West Michigan Whitecaps) were others impressed by the then-promising prospect’s potential.

With that article in mind, I went off the beaten path and asked Cease about something that flies well under the radar of most fans: What is the relationship between players and broadcasters, particularly in the minor leagues? Read the rest of this entry »

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Seattle Mariners. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. This is the fourth year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but we use that as a rule of thumb.

A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.

All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »

This is a bounce-back season for Yandy Díaz, and not in a good way. After two straight seasons with a wRC+ above 145, the Rays first baseman is at 106 so far in 2024. When Jay Jaffe checked in on him on June 13, Díaz had just climbed out of a hole. Through May 10, Díaz was running a wRC+ of just 77 with a 90.9 mph average exit velocity. Since that date, he’s been at 128, and his exit velocity has jumped all the way to 93.7 mph. Even more important, he was running a 60.3% groundball rate on May 10, but has run a 53.3% groundball rate after that point. For the season, that still leaves him at 56.4%, highest among all qualified players, but for Díaz, that handful of percentage points has always been the difference between being a good hitter and being one of the best in baseball. When his groundball rate is up, his wRC+ is down, and vice versa. The relationship is plain to see:

MLB’s new bat tracking data put the issue in stark relief. Blasts are a combination of two metrics: fast swings and squared up swings. The official definitions are here, but if you swing hard and you barrel the ball up, you’ll end up with a blast. That’s a good thing, because so far this season, blasts have a wOBA of .731, and a barrel rate of 27.7%. For Díaz, however, those numbers are .423 and 16.0%. He’s tied with Gunnar Henderson for fourth in baseball with 100 blasts, but just five of those blasts have turned into home runs. Of the 260 players who have hit at least 25 blasts this season, that 5.0% home run rate puts him in 248th place. Why? You know why. He has a launch angle of 1 on his blasts, tied for 259th out of 260. On the left, with the infield dirt almost completely obscured by dots, is Díaz’s spray chart on blasts. On the right, with home runs sprinkled liberally on top, is Henderson’s. Read the rest of this entry »

Last summer, I wrote about how Aaron Civale “King Ralph-ed” his way into an exciting postseason race. The Rays entered the 2023 season with five playoff-caliber starting pitchers at the top of their depth chart and a star pitching prospect waiting in the wings. Yet after several major elbow injuries, they were forced to send a Top 100 prospect to Cleveland in exchange for Civale at the deadline. By August, the right-hander was Tampa Bay’s no. 3 starter. The beneficiary of so many others’ misfortunes, Civale went from a scuffling Guardians club to one of the best teams in the league.

Conversely, Civale probably would have preferred to be back in Cleveland this season. As of today, it’s the Guardians, not the Rays, who are competing with the Orioles for the best record in the American League. Meanwhile, it’s the Rays, not the Guardians, who are struggling to stay above .500 with the trade deadline fast approaching. Thus, I have no choice but to go back to the King Ralph parallel. At the end of the movie, Ralph decides he’d rather return to his old life and abdicates the throne. However, when Ralph abdicates, his aging and childless successor, Sir Cedric, warns him that he might have to be king again once Cedric dies, leaving open the possibility for a sequel. King Ralph never got a second chapter, but as luck would have it, Civale just King Ralph-ed all over again. The rules of the CBA prevent him from simply packing up and heading back to Cleveland, but he’s just taken his place in a new Midwestern court. Read the rest of this entry »