About six weeks ago, Eric Longenhagen published his Dodgers Top Prospects list. It ran 51 players deep, and was headlined by some of the trendiest names in prospect circles: Roki Sasaki, Dalton Rushing, Zyhir Hope. Down at no. 24, headlining the 40 FV group, was a blurb that started with the following phrase: “Low Leverage Ben.”

Ben Casparius is a bulk reliever. He is now what the fifth starter in a four-man rotation was 40 years ago. Most baseball fans know him as the rookie who got called on to make a spot start in Game 4 of last year’s World Series. He’s the guy you call on when Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jack Flaherty, and Walker Buehler have all taken their turns in the rotation, and Clayton Kershaw is hurt. And so is Tyler Glasnow. And Tony Gonsolin. And Bobby Miller. And River Ryan. And Gavin Stone. And Emmet Sheehan. And (ironically) Kyle Hurt. And Shohei Ohtani, or half of him, anyway.

I guess when you’re in the double digits on the Dodgers’ starting pitcher pecking order, getting “Low Leverage” as a nickname is an occupational hazard. But I don’t like it. Mostly because it’s one short of the three-beat alliteration that made “Late Night LaMonte” roll off the tongue so felicitously. (My condolences to LaMonte Wade Jr. on his recent DFA.)

But also because it’s not true. Read the rest of this entry »

There’s a war going on across major league baseball. It’s been waged over decades, in fact, between two opposing factions of the game. Pitchers, at times aided by their catchers, want to own the top of the strike zone, the place where their fastballs have the easiest time missing bats. Hitters want to hit home runs, and the top of the zone is an ideal launching pad. But while both sides would dearly love to own the territory, they can’t both win at once. What follows are some dispatches from the front, the latest moves and counter-moves by some of the game’s best in this contested space.

Chad Patrick lives at the top of the zone. No pitcher in baseball throws upstairs fastballs more frequently. He might not seem like the type. He’s a soft tosser in the context of the modern major leagues, sitting in the low 90s with his four-seamer and sinker, and the high 80s with his cutter. But for Patrick, shape is more important than velocity.

As Alex Chamberlain has extensively explained, the plane of a pitch when it reaches home plate is a key determinant of its success. That’s most true at the top of the zone for four-seamers. Pitches that come in high and flat act like optical illusions – the average fastball thrown to that area falls more, because it’s falling at a steeper angle. Read the rest of this entry »

Any fan, analyst, or baseball executive would be hard-pressed to say that the Rangers pitching staff has failed to do its job in 2025. The rotation has been especially solid, ranking first in baseball in ERA, seventh in FIP, and sixth in WAR. If the bullpen hasn’t been as dominant, they’ve also improved significantly compared to last season, already accumulating almost as many wins above replacement as they did in the entire 2024 season. And yet the Rangers, less than two years removed from soaking each other with champagne to celebrate a World Series championship, sit below .500. A losing season here would be the franchise’s eighth in the last nine years, its worst showing since the move from Washington to Texas. The bats have let the team down, ranking near the bottom of baseball, and what’s worse, the underperforming offense consists mainly of players who the Rangers wanted in their lineup. So is there hope for a turnaround, or will the Rangers need to find new solutions to their run-scoring woes?

First, let’s assess just how lousy the offense has been. Well, ranking 25th in the majors in runs scored is their sunniest number. The Rangers rank 28th in on-base percentage, 27th in slugging percentage, and 28th in wRC+ at 80. The latter number outpaces only the Pirates and Rockies, two teams you don’t especially want to model your ballclub after. While the team has played solid defense, the abundance of leather hasn’t come close to making up for the shortage of wood, leaving the Rangers’ position players 25th in the league in WAR. What little offense there has been has come in very short bursts:

Read the rest of this entry »

Royce Lewis almost had another grand slam. With the bases loaded in the top of the seventh inning in Sacramento on Tuesday night, A’s righty Tyler Ferguson left a sweeper on the outside edge of the strike zone, and the Twins third baseman — who two years ago hit four grand slams in an 18-day span — didn’t miss it. A’s center fielder Denzel Clarke couldn’t reach the 100-mph, 392-foot drive into the left-center gap in time. Instead, both Clarke and the ball caromed off the wall in quick succession, the sphere a couple feet short of leaving the yard but still good enough to produce a two-run double that expanded the Minnesota lead to 8-3 and finally broke Lewis’ latest string of futility after 32 at-bats.

“It was good to see the ball hit the grass or the dirt [or] the wall,” Lewis said. “Just anything other than a glove.”

Lewis, who turns 26 on Thursday, has become all too familiar with such grueling stretches. This is his third time since the start of last September that he’s endured a hitless streak of at least 22 at-bats, though unlike the first two, he was at least hitting the ball reasonably hard during this one: Read the rest of this entry »

Tanner Houck has had a tough start to his 2024 season. Prior to going on the injured list in mid-May with an elbow strain, the 28-year-old Boston Red Sox right-hander logged an 8.04 ERA over nine mostly tumultuous outings. His track record shows that he is far better. Houck’s year-to-year consistency has been a bit on the uneven side, but he nonetheless possesses a 3.97 ERA and a 3.71 FIP since reaching the big leagues in 2020. Last season was his best. A mainstay in Boston’s rotation, he made a career-high 30 starts and put up 3.9 WAR and a 3.12 ERA.

His future role was in question when our 2019 Red Sox Top Prospects list was published in January of that year. As Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel explained at the time, some scouts preferred the 24th overall pick in the 2017 draft as a starter, while others saw him as a reliever. Our prospect analyst duo ranked the University of Missouri product fifth in the system and assigned him a 40+ FV.

What did Houck’s 2019 FanGraphs scouting report look like? Moreover, what does he think about it all these years later? Wanting to find out, I shared some of what Eric and Kiley wrote and asked Houck to respond to it.
———

“Houck was a projection prep arm from Illinois whose price was just high enough to get him to Missouri.”

“I committed to Mizzou fairly early in the process,” explained Houck, who was born in St. Louis and attended high school in nearby Collinsville, Illinois. “I really wasn’t a big prospect. I was only throwing 84-87 [mph] at the time. So that was probably a fair judgement. I definitely grew up and got stronger. I filled out my frame a little bit. Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, Hannah Keyser, of the excellent Bandwagon newsletter, threw down the gauntlet on Bluesky. She posted a screenshot from MLB Network’s daily research packet and wrote, “I challenge the researches at MLBN who put out the daily stat packet to find a split that makes the Rockies look good.” The screenshot featured a single line of text:

The daily research packet is exactly what it sounds like, a multi-page document that contains tons of research on the day’s slate of games, broken down into bit-sized pieces of interesting information. A team of researchers assembles it each morning, then distributes it far and wide across the baseball media ecosphere. Although you’ve probably never seen this document, it has unquestionably informed your experience as a fan. Each broadcast team has its own researchers, of course, but if you’re watching a game and you hear the announcer casually mention that Mickey Moniak is batting .333 with a .476 slugging percentage when he represents the go-ahead run, you can feel pretty confident that they read that fun fact verbatim from the packet. Read the rest of this entry »

If, like me, you’re a weird baseball transactions sicko, you probably first heard of Luis Torrens at the tail end of 2016. That’s when the Padres, in the midst of an A.J. Preller-led teardown, shocked baseball by taking three low-minors players in the Rule 5 Draft and putting them all on the major league roster for 2017. It was a bold, unheard of tactic. The three players – Allen Córdoba, Miguel Díaz, and Torrens – were clearly not ready for the majors. Torrens, the most advanced of the trio, was 21 and had around 200 plate appearances of full-season minor league ball under his belt, and he was still learning his new position of catcher.

That trio was famously overmatched in 2017. Torrens racked up -1.3 WAR in 139 plate appearances, Córdoba -1.0 WAR in 227 of his own, and Diaz -0.7 WAR in 41 2/3 innings pitched. The whole experiment was an embarrassment for the league, and no one has since tried similar chicanery. The Padres sent them down after the season, as soon as they were eligible to do so without having to return them to their previous organizations; Torrens and Córdoba spent all of 2018 in the minors, and both struggled in A Ball. Torrens did finally return to the majors as a backup in 2019, but Preller flipped him to Seattle a year later and he slid into journeyman status. From 2019 through 2023, he bounced around, rarely getting consistent playing time, ending up with 668 plate appearances, a 92 wRC+, and -0.4 WAR thanks to iffy defense.

I’ve used what San Diego did in this particular Rule 5 Draft as a cautionary tale when people ask me about the risks of rushing low-level minor leaguers to The Show. I firmly believe that this Rule 5 manipulation interrupted each of their career arcs – they just weren’t ready for the challenge, which is hardly unexpected given where they’d been playing. Each was a promising prospect, but in the six years after the Padres selected them, the amount of time you’d expect them to be under team control, they combined for -3.2 WAR. Read the rest of this entry »

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the San Diego Padres. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. This is the fifth year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but we use that as a rule of thumb.

A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.

All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Taylor Walls fulfilling a preseason podcast prediction by being ejected after tapping his helmet following a questionable call (and the many notifications Ben and Meg received from EW listeners), Luke Weaver’s stretching injury, the Rockies’ purported improvement, the decline of the closer as bullpen protagonist, a miraculous softball-delivery dirt clod, an unfortunate instance of replay review, the LSU Shreveport Pilots’ undefeated college season, Jac Caglianone’s call-up, Corbin Burnes’s bum elbow, Mookie Betts’s improved defense, the death of Japanese baseball legend Shigeo Nagashima, and more.

Audio intro: Philip Bergman, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Ted O., “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to Walls story
Link to Reddit comments
Link to @EWStats ruling
Link to Walls and Trump
Link to Walls and DeSantis
Link to Revere ride info
Link to Weaver stretching story
Link to Dan S. on Weaver
Link to carrots myth
Link to Rockies quotes
Link to Rockies 10-day offense
Link to Rockies 10-day pitching
Link to Denver Post story
Link to The Athletic on Kenley
Link to Ben on saves
Link to Ben on SP protagonists
Link to softball clip
Link to softball story
Link to Ben on Capps
Link to Springer clip
Link to Springer story
Link to Dave on slides 1
Link to Dave on slides 2
Link to Shreveport story
Link to Wake Forest story
Link to Hill Triple-A game
Link to MLBTR on Burnes
Link to CBS on Mookie
Link to Ohtani Nagashima post
Link to Nagashima obit
Link to Whiting quote
Link to Nagashima NPB Stats page
Link to Oh NPB Stats page

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Tireless reporter Jeff Passan of ESPN reported late Monday night that the hamstring pain that caused Yankees closer Luke Weaver to be held out of Sunday night’s game against the Dodgers would land him on the IL, for as long as 4-6 weeks, with a more specific timetable to be presented at a later time. The extent of Weaver’s injury was previously unknown, as he was still in the trainer’s room well after the final pitch, through the end of postgame media access.

Weaver has been nearly flawless all season — allowing just three runs in 25 2/3 innings across his 24 appearances, though two of those runs have come in his last three games — and in late April, he took over as the team’s closer for Devin Williams, who was removed from the role after his atrocious start. While Weaver’s microscopic 1.05 ERA probably isn’t for real, given his more “normal” 3.04 FIP, even the latter number makes him one of the most important members of the New York relief corps, and losing him for a significant amount of time is a blow. Weaver represents one of the most successful rotation-to-bullpen conversions in recent memory, going from a struggling journeyman starter, who was released and then later claimed on waivers in 2023, to being a candidate for his first All-Star appearance this July. Since his transitioning to the bullpen, which also came with a reinvention of his delivery that featured a minimalist windup, Weaver has put up a 2.46 ERA and a 3.26 FIP over 109 2/3 innings. He also gave up just one hit across his four World Series appearances last October.

While this can hardly be considered good news, the impact of the bad news is mitigated by a couple of factors. First, Weaver’s injury comes at a time when the Yankees have a 5 1/2-game lead in the AL East. That’s certainly not an insurmountable lead, but it’s a comfortable one at this point of the season. Back in April, our preseason projections had the Yankees with only a 31% chance of winning the division, and ZiPS was even less confident, at 24%. As of Tuesday morning, these divisional probabilities are at 89% and 86%, respectively. The ZiPS number factors in Weaver’s injury, projecting him to miss a full six weeks as the worst-case scenario, in order to illustrate this point: The Yankees only get a 0.8% percentage bump if he happens to miss the minimum amount of time before he can come off the IL, meaning they’re in fairly strong shape either way. Read the rest of this entry »