Boston Smith emerged as a prospect to watch this year. Notably, he did so while spending the latter portion of the campaign with his third organization in just his second professional season. Selected in the sixth round of the 2025 draft out of Wright State University by the Washington Nationals, Smith was subsequently swapped to the White Sox the following March in exchange for Curtis Mead, then dealt from Chicago to Seattle at this summer’s trade deadline. The Mariners acquired the 23-year-old left-handed-hitting catcher, along with Seranthony Domínguez and Nolan Jones, in exchange for Luis Castillo.
Smith’s 2026 performance was quite promising. Playing at three levels, primarily High-A and Double-A — he also appeared in eight games in Low-A — Smith slammed 31 home runs while slashing .274/.424/.566 with a 158 wRC+ over 493 plate appearances. Unranked when our White Sox Top Prospects list came out prior to the season, he is now ranked 13th in the Mariners system with a 40 FV.
In our Arizona Fall League preview — Smith is currently suiting up for the Peoria Javelinas — Eric Longenhagen described the Dayton, Ohio native as “a pull-oriented catcher” who “isn’t a good defender yet.” Our lead prospect analyst also offered an interesting comp, pointing to how “that had been true for Liam Hicks, who as a prospect was likewise “a small school, undersized guy who had outlier pull data.”
Smith discussed his player profile, as well as what it was like to catch one of baseball’s top pitching prospects upon joining a new organization, during the first week of the AFL season.
———
David Laurila: You caught Kade Anderson almost immediately after coming over in the trade. What was that experience like?
Boston Smith: “I don’t get too nervous anymore, but I was very nervous to catch him. I obviously knew who he was through college, he was the third-overall pick [in 2025], and then there was the year he was having. So yeah, I was nervous. I wanted to be trustworthy and help him succeed, not be catching him for the first time and having no idea what to do if all of a sudden he started struggling.”
Laurila: That didn’t happen. Looking at the game log, he pitched very well.
Smith: “Yes, and he was by far one of the most mature human beings I’ve ever been around. He was very generous, very helpful, helping me be calm before the game. He even brought me waters. Then, after the outing, the next day, talking about it.
“When he got the call to The Show — I had only known him for two weeks — he hugged me and said, ‘Hey man, thanks for everything you did for me,’ You just don’t see human beings like that too often, especially ones who are so talented. He’s a big league human being as well as a big league pitcher. It was really, really special to me to be able to catch him and know that I was a part of his minor league career for that little bit.”
Laurila: Those qualities aside, what was it like to he behind the plate for him? Have you ever caught anyone who approximates his combination of moxie and stuff? Read the rest of this entry »
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the end of the all-AL-Central ALDS, what the future holds for the White Sox, the ALCS opener, the Brewers’ 2-0 NLCS lead, the contrast between postseason Shohei Ohtani and José Ramírez, the difference between the Rays and Guardians, and more, plus postscript follow-ups.
Welcome to our Open Game Thread for the ALCS games today. Chat with fellow readers as we watch the Guardians play the Rays! Only Members can participate, and unlike our usual staff Q&A chats, your messages will be posted immediately.
Our Member community is made up of thousands of incredibly knowledgable baseball fans, and we think this is a great way to follow a game with like-minded baseball enthusiasts. We might even have some FanGraphs Staff drop in and join the fun. Please be courteous to your fellow Members, or you may find your chat privileges revoked.
soddingjunkmail
The response (as of this writing) to the 2nd poll is peak Cleveland.
6/6 respondents want Cleveland to win but only 1/6 believe it will happen.
Sean Dolinar
Hello everyone! We got a few polls for you. The likability ranking from last night, we'll let that ride for at least another day. Then we have the standard who ya got for the game and the SP poll.
Phil
I've been thinking about possible ranked polls. If there's an all-midwest WS you'll definitely need some food polls and they will have to feature cheese curds (does Tampa have a cuisine?). I'm also mulling over one on the poignancy of loser heroics–Randy Arozarena, Rajai Davis, Carlton Fisk. I know there are other good ones I'm forgetting.
Matt Martell
Bob Gibson in the 1968 World Series is the all-timer
Phil
Yes, absolutely.
Matt Martell
Also Chase Utley in 2009
lzfreak
Any word on if Caminero and DeLuca are banged up at all after the collision yesterday? Looks like both are good to play at least which is a good sign
Jon Becker
Caminero just got the wind knocked out of him, DeLuca was fine
Jon Becker
Hi everyone!
Keaton Arneson
Who else is doing Star Wars Legos during the game?!? I assume the answer is just me.
Sean Dolinar
What are you making?
Keaton Arneson
My son kind of wrecked the AT-AT Walker so I'm rebuilding it. I just got the Tantive IV in the mail yesterday
Benny The Jet
Every time I see the Billy Bob Thornton commercial I think the cops are coming for the crazy guy who keeps bothering people trying to relax in the massage chairs by presuming they want to hear about T-Mobile
Sean Dolinar
Jon, what do you think about this camera angle? For the pitcher-batter matchup?
Keaton Arneson
Didn't Tropicana have an almost perfect straight on angle before the hurricane? I could be wrong. Maybe I need to replay MLB the Show for the answer.
Jon Becker
Pretty good but it's perfect in the regular season, yeah
bosoxforlife
I have a strange question for the group after watching Diaz lope down the line. Should a player go hard on such an easy play and risk a hammy or give himself up?
Phil
Depends on the state of his hammies going in. I was OK with Willson Contreras taking it easy when it came up with him–he was clearly hurt, and he's not in the lineup to get infield hits.
lzfreak
I remember Tony La Russa taking a lot of heat in Chicago when he told his players not to hustle on routine plays. Then they fired him and the next season the 3 best White Sox players all got hurt running the bases in April. Sometimes you just can't win
bosoxforlife
I lean to the don't risk injury side.
Benny The Jet
What was that commercial!
drplantwrench
i feel like dodgers sorta have to play shohei at this point, whats there to lose
Rollie's Mustache
Well this is a bad challenge.
ncphl
Good thing they get two
bosoxforlife
The replay coach needs a pair of glasses.
Dan Szymborski
G'evening
lzfreak
Messick only retired one batter that inning but still faced the minimum
Phil
Dan, obviously there's a long way to go in the NLCS. But from what we've seen so far, do you think projection systems need better ways of accounting for players not on the IL but playing hurt? I feel like all of them, not ZiPS particularly, have been projecting LA at their best and not as they are.
ncphl
A rare Walls hit!
Dan Szymborski
Phil, it would definitely hurt, but the problem is the actual data itself.
Dan Szymborski
I've always wondered if there's something that can be done here, such as sudden change in playing time over a seven-day-period, but I haven't really dug into it
Dan Szymborski
errr, it woudl definitely HELP
drplantwrench
how would you even predict injury?
Phil
Yeah, I recognize that reliable data is a huge problem. You don't want ZiPS scouring the papers.
Dan Szymborski
Maybe some day AI can figure that out, but that day is not now!
Philedited
The problem is that both players and teams lie. I don't know that AI will ever get to the point where it can see through an obvious lie. Our greatest advantage over the machines!
bosoxforlife
I just checked Eric's 2023 Guardians prospect list and a remarkable 14 players on that list are on the roster today. The Rays have only 4 from that year.
Phil
RosterResource has CLE second to STIL in number of homegrown players.
Phil
Rays dead last.
Dan Szymborski
Oooh, I should check my 2023 Guardians prospects
Dan Szymborski
From ZiPS Top 200
Bo Naylor
Brayan Rocchio
Logan Allen
Tanner Bibee
Gavin Williams
Daniel Espino
Angel Martinez
George Valera
Juan Brito
Gabriel Arias
Tyler Freeman
Sean Dolinar
That’s an impressive list.
lzfreak
Lotta double plays already
Sean Dolinar
This won’t be one though
coldbagel12
Messick doesn't look as sharp as he usually does. The double plays are bailing him out.
lzfreak
First to third on an infield hit!
Dan Szymborski
That seemed fast even for Simpson
lzfreak
Yeah as soon as that bounce went way up he hit another gear
Dan Szymborski
It looked like he ran through first by liek 50 feet too
comradeyurika
Ramirez not having a good inning
Sean Dolinar
Bucknered
Sean Dolinar
Bucknered
Matt Martell
Oh my – rough two plays for J-Ram
lzfreak
It's the green glove
Dan Szymborski
Buckner's wasn't hit as hard!
Nick Smith
I'm seeing double, 4 Seans!
Sean Dolinar
4? Did the message send 4 times?
Nick Smith
Simpsons reference.
Sean Dolinar
lol, scared me that something was more wrong than just client sending twice.
Benny The Jet
Yikes
lzfreakedited
I wonder if Tyler Wells ever takes an at bat for Taylor Walls just to see if anyone is paying attention
bosoxforlife
The ball Ramirez failed to come up with hit the edge of the infield grass and stayed down. It is impossible to foresee that and it is more like bad luck, but still an error, than anything else.
Dan Szymborski
The Megan Fox commercial leaves it kind of ambiguous if she's trying to sell us the drug or she's actually the drug
Dan Szymborski
J-Ram kinda has to wonder how come that's an error and the other 750 bloopers not by the Yankees are hits
Jon Becker
Oh hell yeah Junior
Jon Becker
☝️😏☝️
Dan Szymborski
I liked the competent inelegance of the Caminero catch as he kinda just threw his body in the general direction as a reaction and then caught it
Benny The Jet
"That first pitch to Jo Adell was the fastest pitch of Freddy Peralta's career, including playoffs, at 99.4 mph" via the great Sarah Langs
Dan Szymborski
I don't know how Sarah does it, she's way faster and more productive than 99% of us that don't need health aids.
bosoxforlife
Fastball Freddy's heater is the definition of carry.
Nick Smith
Hot take: HBPs shouldn't count if it hits your armor.
asf123
I had the same thought, but I don’t think we want to incentivize “Wear it!” culture more.
bosoxforlife
Don Baylor used to make no effort to avoid being hit by the pitch. Of course he was made of concrete.
asf123
It’s at the point now where Little League kids are being pressured not to get out of the way.
Nick Smith
That's fair.
asf123
Jeez. Yet another inane challenge.
Dan Szymborski
I was always told to not get out of the way in Little League tand that was 35-40 years ago
asf123edited
Your coach was a sociopath ahead of his time!
Sean Dolinar
I looked away for a second and not sure why you'd waste a challenge on that. At least it's not the first 3 innings.
Dan Szymborski
And I didn't. I was an overcompetitive kid. I would lose my s%#@ about the mercy rule even if we were on the bad side of it
BigHurtBeer
Fastball Freddie really needed to get away from the Mets. Put a bow on that performance.
jcathtraverse
Where on earth did Petey Halpin come from? I've now watched a game and a half with him in the starting lineup, and I still have no idea who he is.
asf123
San Mateo, CA, sez here.
asf123
Man, they’ve really doubled down on that Sydney Sweeney ad.
Nick Smithedited
I almost feel bad for her. It's like she blew her Euphoria money on ice sculpting lessons or something.
Sean Dolinar
That sounds like investing in herself.
lzfreak
Oof that's the shortstop's ball
Sean Dolinar
We had Messick and Peralta going 5 IP for the median, and almost 5 IP for the mean. We were spot on for Messick. And short for Peralta.
asf123
Wow, a pinch hitter without a mound visit? How often does that happen? It’s almost like they knew Palacios was on the roster before the game!
Dan Szymborski
Guardians bats gotta do better than pop on toast
Pedantic A-hole
This is a good series for undersized sluggers. Palacios , Mesa Jr., Hicks, and of course the great J-Ram
Dan Szymborski
not so great for J-Ram's D!
Dan Szymborski
Arby's commercials always make me a little sad because I'm reminded of my cat Galileo
asf123edited
I saw your story about Galileo and Arby’s in a chat recently. It made me smile, surprised to know that Arby’s has done some small bit of good in this world. I’m glad you have those memories.
asf123
I was saying how there’s no way Hicks should be starting against a lefty, but SSS >>> my brain.
bosoxforlife
The Guardians started Hedges at catcher so they could use Bailey as a PH. I hope that sounds as ridiculous to others as it does to me as I write it.
Nick Smith
Gotta keep the other team thinking. Zag when they expect you to zig, etc.
lzfreak
It's amazing how often in recent postseasons Vogt has had Hedges at bat in extremely high leverage situations. Now he has competition for that spot!
Dan Szymborski
"I put my hand on the stove because it feels so amazing when I take it off!"
Phil
Was that punitive for heading to first early?
Dan Szymborski
He LOOOOVED Arby's. I couldn't eat Arby's for a year after he died. I mean, he was 20, so he was a really old cat, but still miss the guy because he was the cat who was invariably around me when I was working, including all ZiPS work from origin to 2019.
coldbagel12
Vogt has been having Hedges and Bailey pinch hit for each other all year. Drives me up a wall
asf123
Gotta think of it as more of a catcher funging than pinch hitting, I guess.
coldbagel12
Yeah, that's how he uses it. I just wish he'd pinch hit someone else then make a defensive sub. Although it's not like there's a slugger on the bench.
Dan Szymborski
I was gonna dispute the factoid, but I didn't realize that Kwan was THAT good total in the second half. 155 wRC+
lzfreak
You are allowed to pinch hit with a non catcher though
Dan Szymborski
I mean, he turned it on, but I didn't see the number
Dan Szymborski
I like when they mention Booser, because it's always in a situation where saying boozer sounds funny
Dan Szymborski
THERE'S A BOOSER GETTING WARMED UP
asf123
He’s actually a recovering alcoholic.
Dan Szymborski
OH geez, I didn't know that
asf123
True story.
Dan Szymborski
Not a convenient name to have
asf123
I know, right?
Dan Szymborski
My dad drank himself to death, but he didn't have an ironic name.
Nick Smith
How would you explain changing it, though?
Dan Szymborski
"Call a lawyer?"
asf123
I just read an article about him the other day. He was out of baseball when he was 27 due to injuries, which led to depression and addiction. But he made it back. So, major hat tip.
Dan Szymborski
Seems like it's a story i should have remembered. Good story
asf123
I mean, these days there’s always a chance that the article was a total AI fake, but it seems unlikely that a fake article about a Rays reliever would be real high on anyone’s AI priority list.
bosoxforlife
Not the matchup Cash would want here.
Dan Szymborski
Man, Adell looked horrible on that changeup
Matt Martell
I want to see another Jo Adell triple
Dan Szymborski
That was not a good at bat for Adell
Matt Martell
Yes, I'm still here – just went down a deep rabbit hole looking for the best World Series performances from players on losing teams
jj1986
Lenny Dykstra was tearing it up in 1993
Matt Martell
Yes, Dykstra is on the list
Matt Martell
A 6-inning rabbit hole
Phil
Sorry if I sent you down it! But I'd be curious to see the answer. Wondering about CWPA, too.
Matt Martell
Send it as a mailbag question!
Nick Smith
Yikes! Terrible bunt.
bosoxforlife
I mentioned that I watched him several times in Worcester and thought nothing of it. He was just an old never-will-be. Perusing his history shows he did not appear in organized ball between his 26-28 year old years.
lzfreak
Armstrong is a good name for a pitcher
Rich Hill's Fastball
Certainly better than Flimsyelbow
lzfreak
The Twins used to have a starter named Kevin Slowey
asf123
And the guy actually named Tommy John ended up having to have Tommy John surgery. How ironic is that?
Dan Szymborski
Don't get me started on Lou Gehrig!
lzfreak
Cy Young never won a Cy Young award
Nick Smithedited
I hate to break it to you about Bill Goodenough.
asf123edited
In retrospect, it seems inevitable.
Keith
Why wasn’t Kwan sent home on the double? I thought he was fast.
bosoxforlife
I couldn't believe he wasn't sent. I guess the 3rd base coach was afraid of him being thrown out in the 1 in 10 chance that might have happened. I hate 3rd base scared 3rd base coaches as you might have ascertained.
asf123
Will there ever come a point at which people decide they’ve had their fill of Day-O, “boom boom boom and let me hear you say hey-o” and “Everybody clap your hands!”? Can we poll that?
jcathtraverse
I much prefer "everybody clap your hands" to the relatively recent alternative "I can make your hands clap"
lzfreak
Yeah I don't love a disembodied voice bragging about how he has control over my body
asf123
Rotten potato, rotten potahto.
Solitaire
Jeff Sullivan once live-blogged a Mariners game which included a post "everybody clap your hands clap clap clap clap clap clap clap clap clap clap clap clap clap clap clap clap clap clap clap clap" and I will never not laugh about that now
Sean Dolinar
We’ll do a stadium chant poll tomor
asf123
The “free mound visit for a pinch hitter” rule is such a farce.
asf123
“Gotta give the pitcher the scouting report,” my ass.
Dan Szymborski
I'm grumpy and never ever participate in fan things, even as a kid
Phil
One of my earliest memoried is my older brothrr explaining why the wave is stupid.
asf123
I just genuinely don’t get why people apparently like the same five sound bites over and over and over and over again for years on end.
bosoxforlife
Another of life's imponderables. How did Bryan Baker morph into Mariano Rivera?
Phil
That's just Ray Magic.
lzfreak
You should see what they did with the Butcher and the candlestick maker
asf123
Patrick Bailey, pinch hitter, folks.
lzfreak
Mesa is entertaining even on the routine plays
Rich Hill's Fastball
Ballgame
bosoxforlife
See ya' all tomorrow.
Rich Hill's Fastball
Excited to suffer through a Snell start?
Phil
Good night, all.
Dan Szymborski
I would go see a band called Bryan Baker's Primal Scream, though the actual band might be unhappy
Every October, FanGraphs grades each playoff manager. We focus on their in-game decisions, because a lot of the most important parts of the job – things like keeping players ready to go and making sure relievers understand their role so they know when they might be deployed – aren’t always visible to us from the outside looking in. A lot of what managers do never reaches the public eye, so these report cards instead key in on the remainder of their decisions, the ones that come when the lights are bright and the game is on the line.
We attempt to evaluate those decisions based on process, not results. A pitching change isn’t necessarily bad because the reliever who comes in gets shelled, or good because he gets out of a jam. That’s not to say it can’t be a bad decision – if you bring in your closer up eight, or let your worst reliever face Yordan Alvarez with the game on the line, you made the wrong call. But we’re interested in the before, in what we could expect to happen when a manager makes a pitching change or calls on a pinch-hitter. It isn’t good to completely ignore results, but it’s also bad to fixate on them, and it’s my hope that our report cards strike the right balance.
Have you seen Jhonny Level at all this year? I think he's become underrated among the glut of young SFG MiF. Was skeptical on him at SS but looked great this year and just hits everything
Brendan Gawlowski
Several times. He doesn't have the same defensive ability or upside as the younger guys, and at some point he needs to get a little more selective. But it'd be wild if there was prospect fatigue settling in here already, he's a good hitter with sneaky pop. Easy T100 guy.
leoneforthird
With the move into Cardinals org Tai Peetehas seemed to take a big step forward. What did he do differently this year and is he a top 100 candidate
Brendan Gawlowski
Repeating High-A was a good idea. There's still a lot of swing and miss, probably too much for realistic T100 consideration, but it's really encouraging that it didn't skyrocket after he was promoted to AA. And of course, there are more than 100 or 110 interesting prospects with everyday upside!
ADoctolero
How would you rank Flora, Bresnahan, Keyner, Marquez and Cayama within the Giants system?
Brendan Gawlowskiedited
Flora, Marquez, Keyner, Bresnahan, Cayama.
apeloton
Last week you wrote that Dax kilby looks like one of the best guys in the league – with guys like Walcott here, that was a bit of a wow moment for me. Reading too much into it, or has the last week been that for you too with kilby?
Brendan Gawlowski
He doesn't have the same kind of freaky, elite upside that Walcott does but he looks like a high-probability regular. Solid defender at short, really good feel to hit.
nuxie
Which would be a greater concern for a hitter-chase rate,in zone contact or contact vs 95mph+?
Brendan Gawlowski
Depends; who do you have in mind?
kipsooth
If you're in AZ or have heard from others, how's Bonemer looking in the OF?
Brendan Gawlowskiedited
Raw. Not unexpected, most guys struggle in their initial exposure, particularly in center. It's not true in every case, but I think as a general matter you need to live with growing pains out there for at least a few dozen games before you have any idea if the guy has the instincts to play the outfield.
Alex Remington
With Josue De Paula set to potentially play a larger role for the Dodgers as they fight for their lives, is there anything that a prospect like him could show you in a short series like this that could meaningfully affect your view of his outlook?
Brendan Gawlowski
He could pull an Arozerena I guess. That's probably the best example of a guy playing himself into a significantly higher grade just based on postseason performance alone.
WonderWall
When you watch a player on defense, what are you looking for to say that this player can stick at the position?
Brendan Gawlowski
Depends where they are on the journey. If it's a teenager on the complex, speed/athleticism are big. You'd also like to see good hands/feel for the hop if it's an infield position, but reliability is a little less important at that stage. For a guy in Triple-A or the majors, the bar is higher, and you want to see him make plays that an average player at that position can handle.
drplantwrench
of the angels many holes on the major league roster, which one(s) do you think can be reasonably filled by their non existent farm? or will stan kroenke need to spend his way through everything
Brendan Gawlowski
I wouldn't say the farm is non existent, there are some dudes down there. They're kind of far away though, Rada could help in '27 but that's probably going to be a rough big league season regardless of what they do.
Bud Smith
Back in the day, John Sickels had a theory that prospects with boring names tend to get underrated a bit (Brad Miller was the example that I recall). Have you encountered anything like that?
Brendan Gawlowski
I appreciate the unique angle here but… no?
schwarber raleigh burns
Who's a more promising version of the Joey Gallo archetype: Spencer Jones or Lazaro Montes?
Brendan Gawlowski
They take different routes to a similar place. I'd maybe lean Jones but they're fairly close together on my personal pref.
apeloton
Sss in full effect, but davalan hasn’t been hitting much in the afl – any sense of what the balance is of that being due to focusing more on fielding/it’s the hardest competition he’s faced/just random?
Brendan Gawlowski
It's a handful of games.
millvillemeltdown
on the subject of defense: how much are the "instincts" actually coachable? i'm spoiled as a frisbee player because i have a large, slow object that has fairly observable and predictable flight patterns, but i learned to make reads pretty fast. i don't know how that translates to baseball, esp supremely gifted athletes who seem to struggle to track fly balls
Brendan Gawlowski
I think good instincts give you a higher baseline from which to start. Guys can/do get better at things like tracking a ball in the air or reading a hop on the ground, but some people have a lower ceiling than others.
ADoctolero
Would it be fair to say that no farm system has jumped further up the power rankings than the Giants in the last calendar year?
Brendan Gawlowski
They're up there. St. Louis has an argument too. Atlanta is coming from a lower spot on the rankings but that system's up a decent bit, too.
Solitaire
Would you want to be a scout back in the pre-draft, no tech, no advance knowledge era? When a scout might show up at a game not knowing who anyone was looking for diamonds in the rough? Or is knowing who and what to look for, getting to review video and radar and such make it more enjoyable?
Brendan Gawlowski
Positives and negatives to both environments. The old days probably a tiny bit more fun but travel logistics were brutal back then.
nuxie
Alexander frias’s numbers dropped post trade.any concerns?
Brendan Gawlowski
No.
Kyler Jesanis
Who are some of the biggest risers since mid season reports?
Brendan Gawlowski
Kilby and Flewelling for me personally. Bernal has probably played his way onto the T100.
Ice Cream Helmet
How deep into off-the-field stuff do teams investigate potential draft picks to make sure they guy isn't a knucklehead? Do they ever hire like PIs or psychologists to screen kids?
Brendan Gawlowski
I don't know about a PI but teams do their homework.
epigene13
Have you gotten any looks at Angeibel Gomez in the AFL, and if so, what were your impressions?
I know we are looking at the "whole" player, but can't we take a minute to appreciate how good Josue De Paula must be to go from Double A to be in consideration to start on the Dodgers in the playoffs?
Brendan Gawlowski
He's very good.
schwarber raleigh burns
Have you done much youth scouting overseas? I'd imagine a lot of that is still low-tech wild west style. Or am I naive and do these teams know every 14 year old worth looking at?
Brendan Gawlowski
Zero personally. Some teams are more organized than others in Latin America but there's a limit to how deep into the future you can peer when you're evaluating a 14 year old. There are tons of guys, pitchers especially, who don't pop until late into their teen years.
toshi
If you were in charge of the Mariners, would you be comfortable with Young and Emerson at 2B and SS next year?
Brendan Gawlowski
Young yes, Emerson I'd sure want to have a capable Plan B on hand.
Big Fan
Hello BG!
Brendan Gawlowski
Hello Big Fan
TheHeavy217
For the past several years one of the big talking points during the postseason has been how important it is for teams to have the ability to hit home runs. Yet Milwaukee, Cleveland and Tampa were 29th, 27th and 22nd respectively in that category. Not to mention they were right next to each other on the team ISO leaderboard (25th thru 27th). Why does this work for them? More specifically, how has Milwaukee been able to maintain the best OBP and nearly the best walk rate over the last couple seasons with so little power?
Brendan Gawlowski
Two slightly different things here. The home run factor in the postseason is magnified because there are fewer runs/baserunners in general, which means that homers have a disproportionate impact on run scoring relative to the regular season.
Brendan Gawlowski
To the question of how have teams who don't really hit homers are succeeding this postseason: There are still multiple ways to be successful and there's a lot of variance in a short series.
Brendan Gawlowski
As for Milwaukee: They have a lot of guys with really good approaches and hit tools. And, as Sam Miller said more eloquently than I'll paraphrase in one of his newsletters, there are some real benefits to being the team that hustles in an otherwise non-hustle league
Brendan Gawlowski
It's not that they get a ton of value in the aggregate out of infield groundballs but they squeeze more out of them than anybody else.
Jasperdog3329
Is S. Walcott on the major league roster and starting next spring? Timeline for J. Farmelo who has tools but has lost so much time to injuries?
Brendan Gawlowski
Walcott I'd be very surprised, for a couple reasons. He's blocked, for one, but also not ready. I spoke with a scout who made a persuasive case that he's the kind of player who could use a full year in Triple-A.
Brendan Gawlowski
Farmelo is another one who I don't think is on the fast track. Wouldn't be surprised if he needs most/all of '27 at Double-A. I think even an 85th-90th percentile season has him getting to Triple-A late in the summer.
Sonny L
After attending a lot of MiLB games at different levels I’m in awe of anyone who can ID an A ball player beyond ‘that guy is better than everyone here’ with any certainty that it means ‘he’ll play in the league’ or ‘he’s a star.’ What are markers at that level (hitter side) you found useful
Brendan Gawlowski
Nobody's good enough to tell you with certainty how many WAR a 20 year old in A ball is going to accrue in his career, but some blend of size/athleticism/tools/physical projection can usually tell you who's got a shot to be impactful.
mbushskbum
Did you have a chance to see Sam Horn, GDD? Does he have a future in MLB?
How concerned are you about Emerson going forward?
Brendan Gawlowski
I still think he's going to be a good player. But if I'm trying to contend next year, I don't think I'd plan on him as a "set it and forget it" SS from day one.
triplesandtea
Do you enjoy seeing a prospect attempt to make the knuckleballer conversion?
Brendan Gawlowski
Sure. Tend to think more guys should play around with it.
longsuffering
Is there a guy in the Jays org that no-one is talking about? I was wondering if Ryan Sprock might be that guy.
Brendan Gawlowski
I've just about wrapped up Toronto's list. He'll be on there, likely as a 40 unless sources are all over the guy in a way I'm not anticipating.
Tommyfastball
When you look at a guy like Justin Gonzales, what are the things that you'd see to say "Wow, he's going elite" as opposed to "Let's see how this goes…"
Brendan Gawlowski
I'm more in the 'let's see how this goes' camp with him. He's got a lot going for him, and the power is clearly nuts. Odd swing, stiffer mover than most big prospects. It's not a slam dunk case where everything lines up.
wheelhouse
What’s the deal with George Lombard Jr.? Does he have to move off the position
Brendan Gawlowski
I don't have anticipate that. I think he can be above average at short, and I'm the low man here on his glove.
Michael
In your eyes, what happened with someone like Jasson Dominguez? Did pressure of being 'The Martian' get to him? Constant analysis of defensive miscues got to his head? Is there a post-prospect hype arc he could conceivably stumble upon? League average hitter in '25 with semi-regular at-bats…
Brendan Gawlowski
From what I can gather, there seems to have been a sizable gap between how baseball people evaluated him as a player — both publically and with teams — and how the public perceived his talent. Eric has a theory that the baseball card community is a factor here, particularly with players from the Yankees.
Brendan Gawlowski
And I can buy that.
Brendan Gawlowski
As a player, he projected as a regular but not a star. Guys like that fall short all the time.
Brendan Gawlowski
As for Dominguez himself, a second act as a 110-115 wRC+ player with shoddy defense in some kind of role — maybe more against righties than lefties? — wouldn't shock me.
apeloton
Emma Rodriguez and Mike Sirota have kinda similar offensive profiles and are the same age – does erod’s injury history explain the 2 grade gap between them? Something else I’m missing?
Brendan Gawlowski
It's a factor. The bigger thing is that it looks like Rodriguez will be vulnerable in a huge swath of the strike zone in a way that Sirota won't.
triplesandtea
Reverse of the Dominguez question – who is the player in recent memory that baseball folks were way, way higher on than the general fan public?
Brendan Gawlowski
This is one where different pockets will have different answers. The A's, for instance, were way higher on Esteury Ruiz… For scouts it'll often be toolsy guys with scary data… I really liked Spencer Jones the two times I saw him as a scout and was kind of oblivious to how he was a punchline online for all the strikeouts.
Charles Bengal Tiger
Hao-Yu Lee had a decent but not overwhelming rookie season. Is there another gear?
Brendan Gawlowski
I hope so, he's so fun to watch. He's limited enough defensively that I think "good reserve where you pick your spots/stretches to play him" is the reasonable projection.
Sonny L
Muni’s in zone fastball issues sure came out against Cleveland. Is this a case where over 162 enough pitchers will miss the hole and he punishes but in October better and more focused arms hammer that spot until he adjusts?
Brendan Gawlowski
Everybody suffers a little in the postseason as the competition gets tougher.
Brendan Gawlowski
But also, stuff happens in five games
Brendan Gawlowski
In five games from August 1 through August 6, he hit .136 /.208 /.182 with 12 K's and one double in 24 PA's.
Brendan Gawlowski
In five games from May 6 to May 12 he hit .111 /.238 /.278 with 12 strikeouts in 21 PA's against the mighty Angels/Mariners/Royals.
Andrew
Kellon Lindsay and Joendry Vargas are their stats inflated by the minor league hitting environment?
Brendan Gawlowski
Them and everybody else this year.
adbernardi
Much hope left for Carson Williams? Or is he an odd man out in Tampa?
Brendan Gawlowski
I don't think he's going to hit.
Big Fan
Any updated Braves news you haven't shared with us before? The trade deadline refresh was much appreciated, and there were slew of promotions after that.
Brendan Gawlowski
Nothing beyond what I published in the AZ notes. I suspect they'll go fairly early in the list cycle.
smoothio
What did Salas’ performance with the Padres do to his prospect ranking?
Brendan Gawlowski
Very little, more because he's already 10th on our board. Not much room for us to move him!
Tristan
Unless he morphs into a LF this offseason, Sean Keys seems awfully blocked in Toronto. But he's also look a lot like the kind of bat they could use, particularly with the power and patience profile. Could he be a serviceable outfielder with reps, pushing others to DH at bats? Or do the Jays look for a trade partner? They often deal with the Guardians, who sure don't seem inclined to use Bibee for much this postseason…
Brendan Gawlowski
I don't think you're going to flip him for Tanner Bibee, if that's the question behind the question. You can find ways to get him in the game as a PH or at DH with occasional starts elsewhere. I think trying him in left and seeing how it looks is a reasonable idea. If he hits, they'll find a way to get the bat in there.
Tommyfastball
Are you taking an Amador victory lap?
Brendan Gawlowski
No, but glad he's a relevant player for COL again and cautiously optimistic that there's still a regular in there.
Brendan Gawlowski
You can never take a victory lap in this business.
Sonny L
If he’s not going to hit is Carson Williams the in-house all glove SS when Walls gets expensive?
Brendan Gawlowski
Could be, yeah.
Tommyfastball
You mentioned J. Gonz. was stiff. I've seen that critique for lots of guys. Have you ever seen someone get considerably less stiff? Like they went all yoga and loosened up their core?
Brendan Gawlowski
Usually goes the other way. There was a really good article 10 years ago or so about how Justin Verlander revived his career by limbering up, but that was more of a case where he'd let his flexibility atrophy a little bit rather than finding something brand new.
pdunes
How much of a leap do you expect Konkor Griffin to make next year?
Brendan Gawlowski
A pretty big one. I expect him to be very good next year.
crossedup
Were you able to look into some of the low lower Mariners starters like Jack Bowery?
Brendan Gawlowski
Thank you for your patience. Bowery/Easterly look like HM/35+ types. I like the strikes but they're succeeding by leaning on good execution of shapely but not particularly nasty secondaries. Never say never in this era but they don't strike me as especially projectable, either.
rdf8585
What do you make of what Vance Honeycutt did late in the season in AA and so far in the Arizona Fall League?
Brendan Gawlowski
I liked him more than I thought I was going to. Flawed hitter, still see a path to value as a good glove/danger bat off the bench even if he's pretty limited at the plate.
tmh198
Can Lazaro Montes become Murakami-lite (poor BA, acceptable OBP(.320's-.330's?), 35+ HRs?
Brendan Gawlowski
That's the projection right there.
tmh198
Does Anthony Eyanson have a chance to break camp in the rotation, or are we likely looking at May/Jun debut?
Brendan Gawlowski
~90/10 the latter.
Exile in St. Louis
Any thoughts on Nehomar Ochoa at the AFL? Classic big tool, big swing & miss profile the Dana Brown-led Astros fell for.
Brendan Gawlowski
Bench bat.
Charles Bengal Tiger
Who will emerge from the scrum to become the Cardinals' near- and long-term catcher?
Brendan Gawlowski
Reminds me of the situation the Jays were in about five years ago, lot of potential options, tough to go wrong. I've been a Bernal fan for a while, why stop now.
pdunes
Best baseball comp for Arch Manning?
Brendan Gawlowski
Jackson Holliday?
Chuck Berry
How badly has Winston Santos fallen in rankings this year :'(
Brendan Gawlowski
Sigh. From a valuation perspective, clearly a lot. We'll see how stubborn I'm feeling come the Rangers list.
tmh198
What's Kendry Chourio's upside?
Brendan Gawlowski
Sonny Gray.
Patrick Burke
What happened with Elmer Rodriguez this season? So you still see him being successful in the majors as he was in AAA?
Brendan Gawlowski
Very effective in AAA, major league cameos shone a bright light on his crudeness as a strike thrower. Still like him as a GB-generating SP prospect.
apeloton
Thanks for all the answers!
Brendan Gawlowski
And thank you for all the questions, always fun to hang out. Disappointed about the lack of enclave chat but like that we got to hit on a bunch of different teams/some players we don't often get to here. Let's do it again next eek.
A year ago, even eight months ago, it would have been difficult to envision Victor Mesa Jr. emerging as a postseason hero for the Rays.
The son of a legendary Cuban outfielder and manager, he made his major league debut with the Marlins in 2025, but even by then, his standing as a prospect had faded due to his long swing and his aggressive approach. Designated for assignment by Miami before camps opened in February to make room for a waiver-wire reliever, Mesa was traded to the Rays and began the 2026 season in Triple-A.
Yet by June, the lefty-swinging 24-year-old (now 25) had carved out a platoon role with the big club thanks to his speed and defense. His role expanded as he far outdid his power projections, demonstrated an ability to hit same-side pitching, and played outstanding defense. In Game 3 of the Division Series, he administered the decisive blow against the Yankees, a towering two-run homer on lefty Max Fried’s final pitch to give the Rays a 4-2 lead. His adventurous night didn’t end there — in left field, he attempted to catch Anthony Volpe’s sixth-inning homer-that-wasn’t, which was ultimately ruled a run-scoring double because of fan interference — but the Rays held on to complete the sweep and advance to the ALCS against the Guardians.
“At the beginning of the year, I started being designated for assignment and look at me now,” a beaming, champagne-soaked Mesa said in the aftermath of the Wild Card Series victory.
“Victor Mesa Jr. is a very talented player both sides of the ball,” manager Kevin Cash said that night. “And when we got him up here and he found comfort in playing in that role that he was in basically every day, he really lengthened out our lineup.” Read the rest of this entry »
After a nine-year hiatus from managing, which he mostly spent with the Braves as Brian Snitker’s bench coach, Walt Weiss made a triumphant return to the top step of the dugout this year. Promoted to replace the retiring Snitker, Weiss made the playoffs for the first time as a big league skipper, winning 94 games, the NL East crown, and the Wild Card Series against the Phillies. With his season completed, following a 3-1 NLDS loss to the Dodgers, I’m making a trip to the grade book for the last time this year to evaluate his performance at the helm.
I’ll remind for you, as Ben Clemens also has for his AL manager report cards, that I care about process and not results here. It’s easy to say, “That was a great move because it worked,” or “That was a bad move because it failed,” but managers obviously can’t know the results of their decisions as they’re making them. I’ve tried my best to transport myself back to the moment of each decision — taking into account the pitches, innings, and plate appearances that led up to it — while ignoring its outcome.
Before we get into the grades, I’ll also reiterate that while these are ostensibly manager report cards, there’s a much larger group of people behind the skipper that helps to inform his decisions. Before the game, that includes discussions with the front office, which provides the reams of data that every manager has at his disposal during play. During the game, he’s getting feedback from his coaching staff and players on their levels of health and readiness. It really does take a village to get through a baseball game, and realistically, the praise and scorn doesn’t belong to the manager alone. —>
Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to another edition of my weekly chat. THis is my second time on our new internal platform and I'm still feeling my way around this thing.
Jay Jaffe
As a reminder, you need to be logged into your user account (not necessarily a paid member, but thank you if you are) to submit questions.
Jay Jaffe
I've got a piece on Victor Mesa Jr. in the pipeline for today
How much does Jose Ramirez finally having a postseason to remember impact his HOF odds?
Jay Jaffe
It doesn't hurt him, obviously, but I think the heavy lifting has already been done. He's not yet at the JAWS standard for third baseman, but he's above the peak standard (44.7 vs. 43.4). He'll get some additional limelight when he passes 300 homers (he's at 297) and 2,000 hits (1,779). Another trip to the World Series would be a feather in his cap, too.
Jay Jaffe
I've got a piece on Ramírez's rebound from his slump on track for later this week, incidentally.
Matthew Tobin
Why did the Fangraphs Playoff odds change in the past hour? I noticed the Dodgers were below 25% and they seemed to have inched back up above 25% since then?
Jay Jaffe
Without looking, I'm not sure, but it could be because starting pitchers were named or lineups were adjusted. The odds aren't set in stone, they're adjusted as we get new inputs.
Jamey
Are you familiar with King of the Mound?
It’s on my kid’s school reading list and is apparently about Satchel Paige and his time with the integrated Bismarcks. I’d never heard of that part of Paige’s barnstorming.
Jay Jaffe
I'm not familiar with that book, either. I don't have a strong recollection of the Bismarcks, but they're covered in Larry Tye's Satchel: The Life and Times of an American Legend, which was pubbed in 2009 and which I really liked.
Jay Jaffe
We don't have many questions in the queue at the moment, so don't be shy about submitting yours
sourbob
Going into collective bargaining, a Brewers vs. Guardians or Rays WS is just about the best outcome for the MLBPA and the worst for the owners, right?
Jay Jaffe
Yes, and it's probably even better now that the Dodgers are down 2-0 and looking like they're on the ropes.
Kwanbelievable
What's your personal ranked choice vote for the remaining 4 teams in order of how much you are rooting for them to win the WS?
Jay Jaffe
Beyond the obvious links to my growing up a Dodgers and and generally defaulting to them as a rooting preference, I really don't have strong preferences here — the Brewers and Padres are kind of neck-and-neck in terms of the NL teams besides the Dodgers and Mets (for geographic reasons) that I watch most, so maybe Milwaukee if I had to pick?
The fact that the Brewers, Rays, and Guardians are all among the more analytically inclined teams obviously has some appeal here too. USA Today's Gabe Lacques had a good piece on these teams' interconnections yesterday https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/gabe-lac…
crew87
The "sit Ohtani?" discussion is ridiculous, right? Like, yeah he's been bad but can the solution to your problems possibly be "bench the greatest player alive?" Feels like there should be 10 more things to adjust before that.
Jay Jaffe
I feel like we're back to the 2024 World Series after he injured his shoulder, where the information regarding his true condition was a closely-kept secret and his value in the lineup rest partially on being a decoy. His at-bats haven't been great, and he hasn't pulled a ball in the air since August. I'm not 100% sure I don't pull the DePaula lever myself with the team down 2-0, but I don't know exactly what he's dealing with.
Matthew VanWinkle
Thoughts on MLB's proposed changes regarding season and playoff length?
Jay Jaffe
Didn't love it but it didn't stink on ice like every other MLB trial balloon they've launched during this propaganda cycle. If you're going to shorten the schedule, 154 games is the obvious number to start with, but what will happen is the owners will say, ok, your salaries will be cut 5% to account for this shorter schedule and then the proposal will be deader than Babe Ruth.
Kwanbelievable
Have you ever thought about a JAWS equivalent for managers/coaches?
Jay Jaffe
I've thought about lots of applications for JAWS — and a medical journal even cited it for a "peak plus average" study that they did that was unrelated to sports — but I haven't come up with anything useful enough to unveil.
If there's a lockout I'll go back to the lab.
Jay Jaffe
The most fun I've had thinking about a JAWS application is Astronaut JAWS because I'm a bit of a spaceflight nerd. I watch Apollo documentaries and just about any sci-fi movie where They Puttin On Helmets.
crew87
regarding the Brewers making the world series being bad for owners' bargaining position, do you think players on eliminated teams see it that way and are actively rooting for the brewers? Or is it such a small factor and MLB players are recuperating from the season to a degree they don't get that invested in the playoffs after they're out
Jay Jaffe
Mostly the latter, I don't think the players get particularly invested unless they have ties to certain players, coaches, or execs with those teams.
crackbaldo
How far back would the mound have to be moved for there to be a notable change in the way pitchers have to pitch?
Jay Jaffe
I think even a foot changes things. I know this is a common suggestion for how to fix baseball but every time it comes up I look at the injury data and think "You wanna place more stress on pitchers' arms?" because it's human nature that they're going to work harder to approximate their current velocity rather than deciding to live with lower velo.
mragbayani
If Posey is the most likely inductee, and Utley and Felix are running 2nd and 3rd, who do you see making a big jump this year? Pettitte? Pedroia/Wright? Rollins riding Utley's coattails?
Jay Jaffeedited
I think Pedroia riding the coattails of Utley (and to some extent Andruw Jones) is the mosst likely of t hose outcomes, maybe a bit more momentum for Pettitte as voters realize that he'll be a dead letter in front of the Era Committee given the Hall's engineered panels.
drtracy
With Chris Sale seemingly cementing his place in Cooperstown after his stint in Atlanta, which other active starting pitchers, who are maybe at a career inflection point, could put themselves in that discussion with a strong run in their mid to late-30s?
Beyond that, maybe the next hope would be Max Fried, who has lacked volume but has performed well, but he's had just one season above 5.0 WAR and that's not gonna turn any voter's head.
Rose Keenan
If ohtani were to be healthy enough to pitch, in what role would the dodgers be most inclined to use him. It feels as though they wouldn't necessarily need him in the starting staff but could they use him as a reliever?
Jay Jaffe
The problem with using him as a reliever is that once he comes out he'd have to take a position in order to remain in the game. The rule built specifically to showcase him doesn't apply in those cases.
xandercho23
Joe Espada is being interviewed by the Mariners for their Manager position. Is this the right fit for both sides?
Jay Jaffe
I don't know that he's a perfect fit but I haven't seen anything to suggest he'd be a bad one. it's been awhile since I thought the Mariners had a good manager, and if they hired him, I'd probably think it was a solid move unless there was a candidate I thought more highly of.
Matthew Tobin
Posey shouldn't be eligible until he is completely out of baseball IMO. There is conflict of interest and puts especially local writers in an impossible situation.
Jay Jaffe
Did you see the knives come out for Posey during all his screw-ups this year? I trust the professionalism of the Giants' beat reporters who have votes and their ability to separate the player from the executive.
InsertWittyNameHere
Are the Phillies now in the same spot as the 2010-11 team where the title contention window is almost closed and they have to play out Ryan Howard’s contract (Now Trea/Harper’s contract). Unless a magically pop up prospect happens, I cant see any path to a winning team until a tear down happens.
Jay Jaffe
I don't know about the EXACT spot, and I don't think Harper at this stage is nearly the mllstone that Turner looks like he is, but they do need an overhaul. This team has both Luzardo and Sánchez tied up long term whereas that one had only Lee beyond the 2014 option for Halladay that they declined.
crew87
my idea to fix the mound is to shorten the pitching rubber by a few inches on each side. Not a drastic fix, but eliminates *some* pitcher advantage, because they're all over that thing trying to have more deceptive deliveries / angles.
Jay Jaffe
Hmm, I'd at least entertain the notion of seeing this implemented in the AFL or Atlantic League for a closer look.
Jeremy Fox
Thoughts on the AFL experiment restricting outfielder positioning? Also, if that becomes the MLB rule, surely we need to call it the "Strawberry Patch" rule after Daryl Strawberry, right?
Jay Jaffe
and speaking of which, I don't like this one at all, given the amount of tech involved. So far, I think the answer is move the fences back and make them higher, and revisit the strike one boundaries (or maybe check swings) in order to help increase offense
jamespaul94
By my count there has only been 1 world series in the last 100 years where neither team had won a title before. If Milwaukee and Tampa advance, it would happen, likely for the last time. How exciting would you find that matchup on those grounds alone?
Jay Jaffe
Are you telling me we won't see a Padres-Mariners World Series?
Jay Jaffe
(Ever, I mean. Obviously not this year)
Jay Jaffe
I do think it would be cool to see a World Series that guarantees a first-time title, but I don't want to knock the other possibilities. The Guardians are long overdue for a title, especially given the high quality of that organization over the past 30+ years . If the Dodgers come back, they'll be in a rematch of one that happened in 1920 or 2020 and in pursuit of just the fifth threpeat ever and first of any NL team. Those are all interesting outcomes.
New Brit Fan
I don't quite understand the "if you move the mound back, pitchers will just maximise velo and break even more". Aren't they already pushing as hard as they can?
Jay Jaffe
Yes, but that obviously hasn't stopped anyone from pushing the envelope. It's always going to be "how can I keep my velo in the upper tier" before it's "gosh, i better learn to throw a new pitch"
tjcook87
Just read Mike Vaccaro’s (sp?) new book on George Steinbrenner – good read! In your opinion, Do books like that coming out have any sway with the Hall as it sets up the latest Eras committee? Something that makes them more inclined to add a Steinbrenner/stack the committee accordingly?
Jay Jaffe
Eh, minimal I think. And I don't think there's going to be a crushing rush to make Steinbrenner a candidate when there are so many managers on the doorstep. the Boss got less than five votes in 2017 and '19, which would be a strike against his future candidacy if he gets another one under the newish rule.
Also, I don't think the Hall wants a twice-suspended owner in, to be honest.
xandercho23
If you were making the dodgers lineup, would you make radical changes in hopes of a spark or trust the veterans who got you there? Examples being struggles of Smith, Betts, Ohtani with De Paula on the bench and Tucker/Muncy further down in the order.
Jay Jaffe
I think this is an overraction to two games. Tucker's hitting .300/.391/.500 in the postseason, Muncy is slugging .684. If there's particular matchup stuff regarding the starting pitcher for Game 3, I might give it more sway but I'm not sure Robert Gasser represents such an imposing opponent that they're going to upend everything.
Jeremy Fox
Where do the Phillies turn for a manager now that Cora has (reportedly) rebuffed their approach? Remove Mattingly's interim tag? It's a veteran team that's clearly on the downswing. Feels like a bunch of potential candidates either wouldn't want the gig, or wouldn't be the right fit for it because the vets wouldn't respect them.
Jay Jaffe
I think bringing back Mattingly would be on par with returning Turner to shortstop and assuming Nola is a top-of-the-rotation guy. Just a foolish waste when the clock is ticking. Current coaches like Kai Correa, Ruben Niebla and George Lombard Sr. might be fits as might experienced guys like David Ross, Rocco Baldelli, and Espada, but so much will come down to who Dombrowski connects with.
Jeremy Fox
Will we ever see a healthy Ohtani for a full season as both hitter and pitcher again?
Jay Jaffe
We're never going to see a 200-inning Ohtani and I'd be surprised if we see a 162-inning Ohtani. I think 100-120 innings is going to become the target if he's healthy.
If you were asked, would you accept a position at the Hall to help formulate committees and make decisions on voting?
Jay Jaffe
I'd be happy to consult with them so long as it didn't mean giving up my day job here as well as my voting privileges.
Jay Jaffe
But I don't see myself as winding up on a Hall payroll, if that's what you're asking.
Sonny L
I’m interested in the idea that a Tamp/Cleveland v Brewers WS undercuts the cap logic (it probably does) but might miss the forest for the trees in that it tells the massive middle tier of franchises they don’t have to spend in FA to win. Noses, faces, spite, etc
Jay Jaffe
Eh, if the runs by the current teams haven't already underscored it, the reason they're playing in an LCS is because they are well-run, forward-thinking teams that search for any edge they can get, not simply because they don't spend money in free agency. Theirs isn't the only way to succeed, but it's not a recipe that's replicable just because you *don't* spend in FA.
daml91
Pat Murphy about to win MOY for the 3rd consecutive season in the NL. His regular season W% currently is top 25 in history surrounded by HOFers. There is basically no precedent for someone who started this late, but is there a pathway to the HOF for him especially if he leads the Brewers to their first WS?
Jay Jaffe
I think that's a tough lift for a guy who's already 67. If we presume that the Brewers' current success will be harder to maintain as their current core gets more expensive – and as their pitchers deal with injuries, ahem — they'll be subject to the usual gravity any competitive team faces. Will he ride that out? Will his career look as impressive after three years below .500 somewhere in there? I'm just spitballing here but I think he's a longshot simply because of the late start.
Beer:30
The Dodgers aren't successful because they spend money, it's how they spend it that counts. And the Brewers aren't successful just because they don't sign FAs, they invest heavily in other areas (that many teams neglect) to help offset the approach. Easy to attempt, far harder to replicate from both sides, as evidenced by ample teams failures.
Jay Jaffe
yup yup yup
Tommyfastball
I am left wanting by the metrics I've seen on who is good/bad on pitch challenges. We need metrics that consider the number of opportunities to challenge, how egregious the original call was, even maybe some leverage stuff and accounting for how many challenges a team has left. Current "How many times did a guy challenge correctly?" or "What % of time are challenges correct?" need to be improved.
Jay Jaffe
Players and managers aren't the only ones feeling their way around the new system. Give it time and I imagine you'll see more advanced applications — and for all we know some teams are working on this
sourbob
How seriously should we take the talk of a possibly "juiced" ball in minor league play in 2026? (Whether intentional, or just a variance in the seams.)
Jay Jaffe
I'd like to see some actual data before I take it seriously. PCL scoring went down, IL scoring went up but was still below 2023-2024 levels. Lower than that isn't really something I'm attuned to but if there's something there, let's see the numbers.
InsertWittyNameHere
Do you think the HoF arguments now need to be “TikTok”ized? Meaning the 500 HR, 300 Wins benchmarks need to be severely cut down? The debate of DeGrom is what drives me on this. Any Fangraphs reader who watched him pitch knows that he’s on a very short list of all time great pitchers.
Jay Jaffe
voters already largely recognize the increasing rarity of those once-automatic benchmarks but I think it's going to take a more radical shakeup to get deGrom into the Hall. I'm not incredibly sold on him right now, as I wrote in the piece linked above
Fun-Hating Dork
FWIW, Savant's ABS data does have leverage aspects and they did just add some accounting for losing a challenge. I don't necessarily agree with the exact implementation/numbers chosen, but it's at least a start.
Jay Jaffe
Thanks
Bud Smith
regarding the minor league ball, it's a different ball for AA and below so the PCL/IL scoring is not relevant. BG/Eric have been all over the juiced ball in the lower levels
Jay Jaffe
Noted, and yes, that rings a bell.
Beer:30
What do you see for Bauers on the free agent trail? He's earned a contract but the short history and current age suggest something pretty nominal, 2/$30? or does that fall short?
Jay Jaffe
I think some kind of 2-3 year deal is a likely outcome. It's not the nicest thing to do to his market but I wouldn't be surprised if the Brewers QO him but also make clear that there's some kind of longer-term option available as an alternative.
Jeremy Fox
The Brewers bullpen is amazing, but can they keep riding it this hard all the way to a title? I kind of feel like playoff managers collectively have tend to lean a bit too hard into "win today and worry about tomorrow tomorrow."
Jay Jaffe
The nature of the Division Series with its extra off days makes it a different creature than the LCS when it comes to bullpen management. I expect we'll see teams balancing the usage more, and familiarity effects setting in.
Jay Jaffe
Ok folks, that's it from me for today. Thanks so much for stopping by, please tip your servers, and enjoy the baseball!
It wasn’t how manager Stephen Vogt drew it up, but after stealing Game 1 in St. Petersburg, the Guardians have won four in row and they now find themselves in the driver’s seat of the ALCS. On paper — on pretty much any surface you can think of — the Rays held the advantage coming into the series. They were the better team all season long. They dominated the Yankees in the ALDS, while the Guardians nearly fell to the White Sox. They were rested, while the Guardians had completely worn down their pitching. They had fearsome bats, and they had their rotation lined up the way they liked it.
Drew Rasmussen was coming off one of the most dominant playoff starts we’ve ever seen, throwing eight scoreless innings against the Yankees in Game 1 of the ALDS while allowing just one hit and striking out 10. What’s more, the Rays staked him to an early lead against Cleveland. But these Guardians just don’t seem to quit. After coming back from two games down in the ALDS, the Guardians came back from two runs down to beat the Rays on Monday. Then they poured it on, scoring in each of the last four innings to earn a 7-3 victory.
From the first pitch of the game, Rasmussen looked much less sharp than he had against the Yankees. His velocity was down compared to his regular season average. In each of the first two innings, he allowed two singles and notched just one whiff. Thanks to some help from his defense – catcher Nick Fortes threw out a stealing José Ramírez in the first and Victor Mesa Jr.’s rocket arm held Nathaniel Lowe to a single on a tailor-made double in the second – he escaped those two frames without surrendering a run. He allowed another single apiece in the third and fourth, but kept the Guardians off the board. His velocity ticked back up, but he didn’t throw a clean inning until the fifth. It would be his only one. Read the rest of this entry »
MILWAUKEE — Game 1 of the NLCS was an exemplary display of mid-2020s playoff baseball, a dramatic and finely poised showcase of high-powered pitching and expansive defense. Game 2 was a hot dog, loaded with chili and onions, and dropped clumsily down the diner’s shirt.
And yet, the result was the same: The Brewers got the odd solo homer to center to erase an early Dodger lead, and a small-ball run put Milwaukee up for good. This one had a little more action — the 7-4 final marks the highest-scoring NL playoff game this year, as well as the Brewers’ highest offensive output in their past 13 postseason games. They are now halfway toward answering a humiliating sweep in last year’s NLCS with a sweep of their own.
Heroes outnumbered passengers for Milwaukee in Game 2. William Contreras went 3-for-4 with a walk and a monster home run, but four of his teammates also had multi-hit games. Every Brewers position player except Jackson Chourio reached base. As they piled on the insurance runs, four of their pitchers contributed perfect relief stints. When Game 2 started, only two Brewers in history had scored three runs in a playoff game; David Hamilton and Brice Turang both tied that record in the span of three plate appearances. Read the rest of this entry »
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