Last week, Ben Clemens broke down the trade that sent Tyler Glasnow to the Dodgers, as well as the extension that Glasnow signed soon afterward. In this article, our focus is the conditional option at the very end of the contract. Before the 2028 season, the Dodgers have a $30 million team option. If they decline to exercise it, Glasnow has his own $21.5 million player option. When I read about the structure of the options, my first thought was to wonder why this doesn’t happen all the time. Here’s how Ben interpreted the situation:

“It seems likely to me that one of those two will be exercised; in my mind, it’s a five-year, $135 million deal with a $10 million kicker if he’s pitching well in year four. The circumstances where neither side exercises their option just feel much less likely than one side or the other being an obvious yes.”

I was inclined to agree. It is sort of like a performance bonus: Pitch well and we’ll bring you back for $30 million, but if you don’t, then you’ll be back for $21.5 million. The $8.5 million difference is a lot of money, but it’s also small enough that, depending on the market and their own particular health and performance, a player might not be certain that they’d make it up in free agency. It might just be easier and safer to stick around. The more I thought about it, though, the more wrinkles I saw. Read the rest of this entry »

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the New York Yankees. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. This is the fourth year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but we use that as a rule of thumb.

A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.

All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh, Meg Rowley, FanGraphs’ Michael Baumann and Ben Clemens, and Chris Hanel play a quick round of “College Baseball Player or U.S. Space Shuttle Astronaut,” banter about the Braves’ series of recent, red-paper-clip-style trades (5:21) and the Diamondbacks re-signing Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (14:13), and then revisit, dissect, and score their bold preseason predictions from March (16:22).

Audio intro: Tom Rhoads, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Gabriel-Ernest, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to “I’m Just Ken”
Link to Atlanta’s transaction tracker
Link to Atlanta’s offseason tracker
Link to payrolls page
Link to Dan S. on Gurriel
Link to predictions episode
Link to predictions and scoring
Link to prediction success rate
Link to Vogelbach ad
Link to story on media gambling
Link to story on BBWAA/betting
Link to story on Gallen bird
Link to story on Brennan bird
Link to story on media gambling
Link to Volpe parm story
Link to Stigler’s law wiki

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The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2024 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

Before Joe Mauer began starring for the Twins, there was Torii Hunter, and before Chase Utley began starring for the Phillies, there was Jimmy Rollins. Hunter, a rangy, acrobatic center fielder who eventually won nine Gold Gloves and made five All-Star teams, debuted with Minnesota in 1997 and emerged as a star in 2001, the same year the Twins chose Mauer with the number one pick of the draft. The pair would play together from 2004 to ’07, making the playoffs twice before Hunter departed via free agency. Rollins, a compact shortstop who carried himself with a swagger, debuted in 2001 and made two All-Star teams by the time he and Utley began an 11-year run (2004–14) as the Phillies’ regular double play combination. The pair helped Philadelphia to five NL East titles, two pennants, and a championship, with Rollins winning NL MVP honors in 2007 and taking home four Gold Gloves.

Hunter and Rollins both enjoyed lengthy and impressive careers, racking up over 2,400 hits apiece with substantial home run and stolen base totals. From a Hall of Fame perspective, both have credentials that appeal more to traditionally-minded voters than to statheads. But in their time on the ballot, they’ve gotten little traction, with Hunter topping out at 9.5% in his 2021 debut and Rollins only breaking into double digits in ’23. Not much has changed regarding their electoral outlooks this time around; both are likely to be far outdistanced by their former teammates, whose advanced statistics are much stronger despite comparatively short careers. Still, these two may persist on the ballot, with enough support for us to keep reliving their careers and discussing their merits on an annual basis. There are far worse fates for Hall of Fame candidates. Read the rest of this entry »

Arizona took one of the few quality outfielders available in free agency off the market over the weekend, re-signing outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. to a three-year contract worth a guaranteed $42 million. Gurriel gets an opt-out after the second year of the contract, and the Snakes get a $14 million option for a fourth season. While he didn’t have a star-level season for Arizona in 2023, he was a steady contributor in left field and designated hitter, putting up a .261/.309/.463 triple-slash en route to 2.1 WAR.

Gurriel wasn’t the primary reason that Arizona surprised a lot of people in 2023, but he filled a hole in the Diamondbacks’ lineup. In 2022, Arizona designated hitters combined to hit .215/.320/.382. And Jake McCarthy’s struggles — he had a .481 OPS in April — ensured there was plenty of time for Gurriel in the field. While nobody will ever confuse Gurriel with Kevin Kiermaier with the glove, he had the best defensive season of his career by OAA. If you prefer DRS or UZR, he was one of the best defensive left fielders in baseball. I’m not going to go nearly that far, but the combination of respectable work with both leather and wood left Gurriel a league-average starter overall.

In 2024, Gurriel will likely play a similar role, splitting time at left field and DH. The estimates of Ben Clemens (3/45) and our crowdsource (3/36) did well here. Even in a free-agent market with few impact hitters, an ordinary player hitting 30 years old without a ton of defensive value was never likely to set the market on fire. Read the rest of this entry »

In January 2011, the Rays traded a good young starting pitcher who was about to get into his expensive pre-free agency years. They received a five-player package that included another good young starting pitcher, who himself went on to pitch well for the Rays for several years. In 2018, they traded that pitcher for a package that included another young starting pitcher, who gave the Rays several good seasons of service. And last week, they traded him for a package that included another promising young pitcher.

It’ll probably be a minute before 26-year-old Ryan Pepiot is ready to buy a house. Interest rates being what they are, even the major league minimum salary doesn’t go as far as it used to anymore. It’s just as well, because he should rent until sometime in late 2026, I suspect.

See, this started as a joke about how the Rays always trade their good young players before they hit free agency. Turns out the Rays are so systematic about this sort of thing that they defy parody. Read the rest of this entry »

Jack Flaherty, still just 28 years old, has already endured more ups and downs than most pitchers do in their entire careers. His peak, a 4.7-win, fourth-place Cy Young finish in 2019, tells a story far different from the middling 3.3 WAR he’s accrued in 299 innings sandwiching a variety of injuries since. What should we make of the former heir apparent to Adam Wainwright?

Let’s start by asking how teams are assessing him, now that we have at least one more data point. The Tigers evidently see enough in the erstwhile ace to fork over $14 million for a year of his services, with games-started-based incentives that could tack on an additional $1 million. Incentives aside, his age and upside helped him net the largest guarantee for a starter on a one-year deal so far this offseason, outpacing the likes of Luis Severino, Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, and Wade Miley. Among two-year contract recipients, his AAV is higher than that of Erick Fedde, Nick Martinez, Tyler Mahle, and teammate-to-be Kenta Maeda. Read the rest of this entry »

Last year, the Padres had a clear approach to the offseason. They came in badly needing innings, but with a decorated and devastating lineup – particularly after they signed Xander Bogaerts to add to their shortstop treasure trove. They did have a few holes, though, so they shopped in volume for complementary bats and mid-rotation arms. Their two preferred pitching targets: Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha. Clearly, the Royals were taking notes.

That’s right: After signing Lugo earlier this month, the Royals turned around and inked Wacha to a two-year, $32 million pact last week. They also addressed some of their outfield deficiency by signing Hunter Renfroe to a two-year, $13 million deal of his own. Both contracts feature player opt-outs for the second year. By sheer number of major league deals signed this offseason, the Royals are now lapping the field. Read the rest of this entry »

Jed Bradley had just walked away from baseball when I featured him here at FanGraphs in May 2017. Six years removed from being a first-round draft pick, and seven-plus months after making the last of his half dozen big-league pitching appearances, the southpaw had decided that he “wasn’t happy doing it anymore, and life is too short to do something that doesn’t make you happy.” At age 26, Bradley set out to write the next chapter in his life.

Term papers followed, but so too did one last attempt to resurrect what had once been a promising career. Despite a still-balky shoulder that had factored into his farewell, the erstwhile 15th-overall pick couldn’t help but give the game he loves another shot.

“I had every intention of moving on with my life and never looking back,” recalled Bradley, who has since earned a law degree and is now a corporate attorney. “I re-entered college at Georgia Tech — the first time in over two decades I was outside of baseball entirely — and the hiatus lasted approximately three months before I found myself watching old World Series games on Youtube and following the latest trade rumors. Soon I was researching the efficacy of stem cells on shoulder injuries. I ended up flying to south Florida for stem cell injections, and from there I was driving to rehab sessions after classes trying to get my arm back in shape.”

Bradley graduated from business school, but the corporate world would have to wait. Armed with last-hope inspiration, he spent that summer on the mound for the New Britain Bees of the independent Atlantic League. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Shohei Ohtani’s introductory press conference and getting closure on contract/canine questions, the audience verdict on how to handle Ohtani in the free-agent-contract over/under draft (20:22), the Dodgers-Rays Tyler Glasnow trade (32:09), the latest Royals signings (Michael Wacha, Hunter Renfroe), the Tigers adding Jack Flaherty, and the AL Central, Max Scherzer, Tyler Mahle, and the Rangers rotation, and Buster Posey’s comments about free agents being wary of San Francisco (1:01:30), plus a Stat Blast (1:09:49) about the longest gap between being minor league teammates and becoming big league teammates, and an Andre Braugher baseball rec (1:27:31).

Audio intro: The Shirey Brothers, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Dave Armstrong and Mike Murray, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to article on Ohtani’s elbow
Link to article on Ohtani’s dog
Link to Ohtani’s dog answer
Link to Portia EW interview
Link to info on negotiations
Link to “key man” clause
Link to Lindsey on the dog
Link to Ohtani on SNLA
Link to over/under draft wiki
Link to Rosenthal/Drellich article
Link to Sam Blum on Ohtani/Angels
Link to article on Ohtani/Glasnow
Link to Clemens on Glasnow
Link to Sam on the trade tree
Link to Laurila on Picollo
Link to Baumann on Mahle
Link to Posey’s comments
Link to Morgan/Burgmeier article
Link to Phillips/Raines article
Link to Kenny Jackelen’s Twitter
Link to Robinson in the Army
Link to Robinson movie on YouTube
Link to Robinson movie on IMDb
Link to Robinson book

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