Sunday Notes: Cubs Rookie Ethan Roberts Cuts and Sweeps His Spin

Prior to talking to him in Wrigley Field’s home clubhouse in late August, my knowledge of Ethan Roberts mostly consisted of his being a 27-year-old, right-handed reliever with limited big-league experience and a high spin rate. I also knew he’d had Tommy John surgery in 2022 as that was mentioned, along with his spin, when he was blurbed as an honorable mention on our 2023 Chicago Cubs Top Prospects list.

The 2018 fourth-round pick out of Tennessee Technological University has added to his résumé since we spoke and now has 27 appearances for his career, 18 of them this year. His numbers in the current campaign include a 2.66 ERA and 23 strikeouts over 23-and-two-thirds innings. Three days ago he tossed a scoreless frame against the Washington Nationals and was credited with his first big-league win.

Roberts learned that he spun the ball well upon entering pro ball. Not long thereafter, he learned that not all spin is created equal.

“It was my first time around technology,” explained Roberts. “I threw a bullpen and my fastball was spinning pretty high. It was spinning like 2,800 [RPMs] —right now it’s more 2,600-2,700 — and I actually throw it very supinated. It’s kind of like a natural cutter. But yeah, when I got on technology there, in Arizona [at the Cubs spring training complex], I was like, ‘I don’t know what any of this means, but thanks for telling me.’”

Which brings us to his spin characteristics, as well as to pitch classifications. Read the rest of this entry »


Effectively Wild Episode 2221: 50-50 Shot

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and FanGraphs’ Ben Clemens dissect the glorious game in which Shohei Ohtani founded the 50-50 and 51-51 Clubs, Ohtani’s most awe-inspiring feats, and his future, followed (29:51) by banter about the state of defensive stats, the mystery of Salvador Perez’s swing decisions, questionable kudos for Bud Black, whether Victor Robles made the worst steal attempt of all time, and MLB’s Players of the Game. Then (1:19:55) Ben talks to trailblazing journalist Melissa Ludtke, author of Locker Room Talk: A Woman’s Struggle to Get Inside, about the landmark 1970s Ludtke v. Kuhn case that opened MLB team clubhouses to women.

Audio intro: Jonathan Crymes 2, “Effectively Wild Theme
Audio outro: Luke Lillard, “Effectively Wild Theme

Link to Ben C. on Ohtani
Link to Ohtani highlights
Link to Ohtani single-game stats
Link to Mookie quote
Link to study on exit velo
Link to Lebron tweet
Link to power/speed number wiki
Link to most Total Bases
Link to 50-homer seasons
Link to 70-steal seasons
Link to Sheehan on Shohei
Link to Ben C. on Ohtani odds
Link to various Ohtani fun facts
Link to OptaSTATS fun fact
Link to Terminator 2 quote
Link to Tango on defensive stats
Link to Judge on defensive stats
Link to BP DRP
Link to previous Salvy EW discussion
Link to Sarris on not swinging
Link to Choi on not swinging
Link to SEAGER explainer
Link to latest SEAGER article
Link to SEAGER leaderboards
Link to SwRV explainer
Link to more on SwRV
Link to PLV explainer
Link to PLV swing decisions
Link to Robert Orr’s Twitter
Link to Drew Haugen’s Twitter
Link to Kyle Bland’s Twitter
Link to Bud Black tweet
Link to Black’s manager page
Link to Rockies managers page
Link to Leyland Rockies wiki
Link to Ben on pitching coaches
Link to Julio/Arozarena play
Link to Julio/Arozarena article
Link to Andrews on Robles
Link to Baumann on Robles
Link to AP on Robles
Link to Robles video clip
Link to Ryan Nelson’s Twitter
Link to Ryan’s stealing-home data
Link to 2023 post on stealing home
Link to 2020 “steal”
Link to MLB Player of the Game
Link to FG Player of the Game
Link to Melissa and Cosell
Link to Locker Room Talk
Link to Constance Baker Motley wiki
Link to Constance Baker Motley book
Link to Ludtke v. Kuhn decision
Link to Angell’s New Yorker feature
Link to Angell centennial EW episode
Link to Emma at SI on Melissa
Link to Melissa on Melissa
Link to Melissa’s TEDx talk
Link to Melissa’s website

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Effectively Wild Episode 2220: The Baseball Layers of The Onion

EWFI
In a bonus EW episode, Ben Lindbergh talks to screenwriter and former editor-in-chief of The Onion Robert Siegel about his classic Onion opinion piece, “In My Day, Ballplayers Were For Shit,” how The Onion used to approach sports coverage, the importance of headlines and stock photos, satirizing baseball vs. satirizing other sports, why The Onion hasn’t lost its fastball, and more, plus (55:53) a postscript.

Audio intro: Josh Busman, “Effectively Wild Theme
Audio outro: Alex Glossman and Ali Breneman, “Effectively Wild Theme

Link to “In My Day” article
Link to “Take Me Out” song
Link to The Onion baseball archive
Link to Siegel’s IMDb
Link to Siegel’s wiki
Link to 2003 Yankees story
Link to Counsell story
Link to Brock AB story
Link to warehouse fire story
Link to “No Way to Prevent This”
Link to Congress/Capitol story
Link to Ripken story 1
Link to Ripken story 2
Link to Little Leaguer story
Link to T-ball headline
Link to Onion popularity story
Link to Our Dumb Century
Link to ODC archive
Link to “Heartbreaking” photo wiki
Link to Ben on Sloan
Link to Facebook favorites thread
Link to Reddit favorites thread
Link to NotGraphs favorites post
Link to Angell’s boyhood memories
Link to Ben on talent over time
Link to Ottavino claim
Link to Tungsten Arm article
Link to Dunne at Fanatics Fest
Link to Ben on Marvel stans
Link to Grantland on dying baseball
Link to SI on dying baseball
Link to Ohtani futures bet photo
Link to first-pitch injury
Link to Chourio prediction
Link to Holliday prediction
Link to Shania song
Link to Ryan’s Twitter thread
Link to CV wiki

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Hello, Bye: Checking in on the Races for Playoff Seeding

Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

With just 10 days left to go in the regular season, four teams — the Brewers, Dodgers, Guardians, and Yankees — have clinched playoff berths, and while just one division race has been decided, only two others have even a faint pulse. There’s still plenty of drama to be had with regards to the Wild Card races, which essentially boil down to a pair of four-to-make-three scenarios; Seattle might have been a stronger fifth in the AL if certain Mariners who reached third base didn’t insist upon taking very strange walkabouts. Beyond that, it’s also worth checking in on the jockeying for position to claim the first-round byes that go to the top two teams in each league.

Once upon a time, this space would be filled with my reintroducing readers to the concept of Team Entropy, but through the 2022 Collective Bargaining Agreement, Major League Baseball and the players’ union traded the potential excitement and scheduling mayhem created by on-field tiebreakers and sudden-death games in exchange for a larger inventory of playoff games. The 12-team, two-bye format was designed to reward the top two teams by allowing them to bypass the possibility of being eliminated in best-of-three series. So far, however, things haven’t worked out that way, because outcomes in a best-of-five series are only slightly more predictable than those of a best-of-three.

In fact, the National League teams who have received byes under the newish system have lost all four Division Series since, two apiece by the Dodgers and Braves. The 111-win Dodgers were ousted by an 89-win Padres team in 2022, and then last year’s 100-win team was knocked off by the 84-win Diamondbacks. In 2022, the 101-win Braves fell to an 87-win Phillies team, and last year, after winning 104 games in the regular season, Atlanta once again was eliminated by a Philadelphia club that had finished 14 games behind the Braves in the standings. American League bye teams have had more success, going 3-1, with last year’s 90-win Rangers beating the 101-win Orioles for the lone upset. The Astros have taken care of business in both years, with their 106-win club sweeping the 90-win Mariners in 2022 and their 90-win team beating the 87-win Twins last year. Read the rest of this entry »


Clinching Season Comes Late This Year

Jovanny Hernandez/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel-USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Brewers clinched a playoff spot on Wednesday afternoon, with the Cubs’ loss to Oakland early in the afternoon. The Brew Crew themselves waited until after their game against Philadelphia later in the evening to celebrate properly — turns out that a pregame champagne bacchanal is frowned upon in this day and age — but by golly, they sure did seem to enjoy themselves.

The team set out a stroller full of non-alcoholic offerings for underage outfielder Jackson Chourio, confetti was tossed around, music played, and so forth. Bob Uecker was thrilled to the point of incontinence. It will surprise no one to learn that when it comes to clinching parties, I am strictly opposed to acting like you’ve been there before.

Some fuddy-duddies, angered by the realization that anhedonia is not a universal condition, will say there’s still work to be done for the Brewers, a team that’s now made the playoffs six times in seven years but has connived to win only a single postseason series in that span. That’s surely true, and should Milwaukee repeat its traditional low-scoring first-round flameout, I’ll be right there in line to level appropriate criticism.

But let’s not overlook the fact that winning the division requires months of hard work by hundreds of people throughout the organization. It would be disrespectful to those who put in that effort not to take a moment, for one night, to celebrate the product of all that labor. Read the rest of this entry »


Of Course This Is How Shohei Ohtani Makes History

Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

In retrospect, of course he was going to do it. On Thursday, Shohei Ohtani became the first player in history to hit 50 home runs and steal 50 bases in the same season, and he did it loudly. His 6-for-6, three-homer, two-steal game would be among the best single-game lines by any player all year even if it hadn’t simultaneously helped him achieve a feat that no one has ever done before. Sometimes you just have to marvel at the greatness.

Ohtani wasn’t supposed to be at his peak this year. He’s rehabbing from UCL repair surgery and thus not pitching. His two-way prowess has always been part of the Ohtani mystique, and 2024 felt like a warmup for next year, his first fully operational campaign with the Dodgers. But instead, Ohtani reached new heights as a hitter this year. He’s already set career bests for every counting stat imaginable. He’d have highs in every rate stat too, if it weren’t for his offensive breakthrough in 2023 (.304/.412/.654 for a 179 wRC+).

Ohtani always felt like a threat to hit 50 homers – he hit 46 in 2021 and 44 last year — but 50 steals felt like a pipe dream; he’d swiped only 86 total bases in 716 games before this year, and even with last year’s rule changes that increased stolen base attempts and success rates, he swiped only 20 bags in 135 games.
Read the rest of this entry »


Job Posting: Boston Red Sox – Manager, Amateur Scouting

Manager, Amateur Scouting

Location: Boston, MA

DEPARTMENT OVERVIEW:
The Amateur Domestic Scouting department is primarily responsible for improving organizational talent through the Rule IV Draft and UDFA signing process. The Amateur Domestic Scouting department strives to be best in class at identifying, evaluating, and valuing amateur baseball talent through a relentless commitment to our process and our people. This includes, but is not limited to creating well-rounded scouting practices, building relationships, leveraging R&D for process support, developing strong staff education frameworks, and establishing sound decision-making processes.

POSITION OVERVIEW:
This is an office-based role that operates in close collaboration with department leadership to drive process improvement while providing support across all areas of the Amateur Scouting operation. As part of this role, support will be required in the following areas: player analysis and evaluation, administration, data collection, and quality control. Additionally, the role helps manage Associate support for Amateur Scouting, as well as the greater Baseball Operations department.

RESPONSIBILITIES:

  • Lead, implement and improve processes across all areas of the scouting operation, focusing on advancements in workflow, evaluative methods, decision-making, and staff development.
  • Drive the development and enhancement of the performance identification process.
  • Collaborate with Analytics, Systems, and Baseball Strategy departments to identify and drive research opportunities that enhance player evaluation.
  • Work alongside department leadership and partner departments to fully vet and comprehensively analyze all potential draft candidates.
  • Work with all stakeholders within Amateur Scouting to optimize effectiveness and efficiency of scouting operations and analysis while own a workload of administrative tasks.
  • Ensure high standards of quality, rigor, and timeliness of player-level data and efficient delivery and communication of high-value information.
  • Evaluate amateur player targets across assigned areas of responsibility using a hybrid approach of live and video scouting as well as internal information sources.
  • Power use internal systems and valuation materials. Oversee Associate, Amateur Scouting and their development.
  • Designs, integrates, and continuously improves processes in alignment with our organizational KPI’s. 

COMPETENCIES:

  • Ability to interact deeply with predictive modeling groups and analytical outputs to integrate and apply to decision-making processes.
  • Command of valuation frameworks and principles, and the ability to collaborate inter-departmentally to iterate and improve applied valuation methodologies.
  • Experience with and aptitude for player analysis and evaluation (subjective and objective) and a knowledge of baseball markets across acquisition spaces, transactional/operational areas, and other domains.
  • Ability to apply evaluation and valuation expertise in the respective planning and decision-making processes.
  • A strong understanding of and ability to relate to the demands, challenges, and needs of both field and office staff.
  • Command of end-to-end processes that power decisions and ability to contribute to improvements; ability to design effective and efficient processes within the Amateur Domestic Scouting department and inter-departmentally, and to act as a strong resource for leadership in the planning and execution of departmental priorities.
  • Ability to connect with and respect people from different backgrounds and cultures, including players, families, coaches, agents, trainers, and others.

In addition to the above requirements, all roles within Baseball Operations are expected to effectively demonstrate our universal competencies related to problem solving, teamwork, clarity of communication, and time management, along with embodying our culture of honesty, humility, relentlessness, and commitment to DEIB.

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Boston Red Sox.


Job Posting: Boston Red Sox – Acquisition Specialist

Acquisition Specialist

Location: Remote

POSITION OVERVIEW:
The Acquisition Specialist will play an important role in enhancing the Scouting process through live and video evaluations, leveraging data to refine valuation methods, and supporting leadership in decision-making efforts. The role demands expertise in player analysis, proficiency with analytical tools, and a sound grasp of valuation frameworks. This person will consult with key contributors across multiple departments, collaborating with Scouting leadership, Analytics, and Systems teams, to drive continuous improvements in information, evaluations, valuations, and decision-making processes, ultimately enhancing the overall efficiency and effectiveness of the Amateur or Pro Scouting operation.

The Acquisition Specialist is a remote role. We have openings on both the Amateur Domestic Scouting and Pro Scouting teams. Candidates will have a chance to state their preference but are not guaranteed placement on their preferred team.

DEPARTMENT OVERVIEW(S):
The Amateur Domestic Scouting department is primarily responsible for improving organizational talent through the Rule IV Draft and UDFA signing process. The Amateur Domestic Scouting department strives to be best in class at identifying, evaluating, and valuing amateur baseball talent through a relentless commitment to our process and our people. This includes, but is not limited to creating well-rounded scouting practices, building relationships, leveraging R&D for process support, developing strong staff education frameworks, and establishing sound decision-making processes.

The Pro Scouting department is responsible for evaluation, information synthesis, valuation analysis, and decision-making recommendations for player acquisitions across all professional leagues, including: Major & Minor Leagues, Independent Leagues, and Professional Winter Leagues. The department collaborates across baseball ops domains to leverage organizational knowledge and help drive decisions of professional players across all acquisitions avenues.

RESPONSIBILITIES:

  • Participate in the implementation and improvement of processes across several areas of the acquisition operation, focusing on advancements in workflow, evaluative methods, decision-making support, and staff development.
  • Utilize analytical tools to identify and prioritize prospects that require further analysis to ensure high-confidence and completeness of information, evaluations, and valuations.
  • Leverage analytical tools and models to provide QC/QA feedback and identify areas for further research and development.
  • Make informed recommendations on valuation approaches and apply valuation outputs to decision-making processes.
  • Partner with Systems and Analytics teams to develop, refine, and optimize scouting tools.
  • Evaluate a high volume of players using video analysis and select live-look targets, integrating all available data for comprehensive evaluation.

COMPETENCIES:

  • Ability to interact deeply with predictive modeling groups and analytical outputs to integrate and apply to decision-making processes.
  • Command of valuation frameworks and principles, and the ability to collaborate inter-departmentally to iterate and improve applied valuation methodologies.
  • Experience with and aptitude for player analysis and evaluation (subjective and objective) and a knowledge of baseball markets across acquisition spaces, transactional/operational areas, and other domains
  • Ability to apply evaluation and valuation expertise in the respective planning and decision-making processes.
  • A strong understanding of and ability to relate to the demands, challenges, and needs of both field and office staff
  • Command of end-to-end processes that power decisions and ability to contribute to improvements; ability to design effective and efficient processes within the Amateur Domestic Scouting or Pro Scouting department and inter-departmentally, and to act as a strong resource for leadership in the planning and execution of departmental priorities.
  • Ability to connect with and respect people from different backgrounds and cultures, including players, families, coaches, agents, trainers, and others.

ADDITIONAL QUALIFICATIONS:

  • Experience with SQL is a plus, not required.
  • In addition to the above requirements, all roles within Baseball Operations are expected to effectively demonstrate our universal competencies related to problem solving, teamwork, clarity of communication, and time management, along with embodying our culture of honesty, humility, relentlessness, and commitment to DEIB.

    To Apply:
    To apply, please follow this link.

    The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Boston Red Sox.


    Top of the Order: Previewing the Option Decisions for AL Teams and Players

    Brad Penner-Imagn Images

    Welcome back to Top of the Order, where every Tuesday and Friday I’ll be starting your baseball day with some news, notes, and thoughts about the game we love.

    Welcome to the second (and final) installment of the critically acclaimed “Previewing the Option Decisions” series. I covered the National League on Tuesday, and today we’ll have the American League sequel. Let’s get to it.

    Baltimore Orioles

    Mike Elias and his front office have five (!) club options to decide upon, but most of the choices are going to be easy ones. Eloy Jiménez, who has been a platoon bat since coming over from the White Sox, is going to have his $16.5 million option turned down; Seranthony Domínguez ($8 million), Danny Coulombe ($4 million), and Cionel Pérez ($2.2 million) will all have their options exercised to beef up the bullpen behind returning closer Félix Bautista. (Pérez is eligible for arbitration for two more seasons even if his option is declined.)

    The one fascinating call will be what to do about Ryan O’Hearn, who has a $7.5 million club option for next season. Just a couple of months ago, exercising the option looked like a no-brainer. At the end of July, O’Hearn was hitting .273/.344/.457 (128 wRC+) while starting at first base or in right field against righties. Since then, he’s held onto his strong-side platoon role, but his season has taken a turn for the worse. O’Hearn is batting just .209/.283/.296, which works out to an anemic 70 wRC+, across 127 plate appearances since the beginning of August. Considering he provides little value in the field or on the bases, O’Hearn needs to break out of his slump soon to show the Orioles he’s worth keeping around. Baltimore has enough in-house talent to replace O’Hearn; even if Anthony Santander leaves in free agency, the O’s could roll with Coby Mayo at first, Heston Kjerstad in right, and Ryan Mountcastle at DH. Read the rest of this entry »


    Effectively Wild Episode 2219: The Potential Playoff Fumbles

    EWFI
    Ben Lindbergh and Joe Sheehan banter about high school, the persistent, befuddling allure of Craig Kimbrel, the Orioles’ recent struggles, the playoff-fumble potential of four teams that previously possessed 90-plus-percent playoff odds, their prediction philosophies, the potential for legislation to curb the excesses of sports betting, and what the surprise “retirement” of Adrian Wojnarowski says about the difference between baseball’s biggest newsbreakers and those of other sports, plus a postscript (1:16:30) about the history of hating intentional walks.

    Audio intro: Cory Brent, “Effectively Wild Theme
    Audio outro: Gabriel-Ernest, “Effectively Wild Theme

    Link to JUG explainer 1
    Link to JUG explainer 2
    Link to Regis JUG Night
    Link to Joe Sheehan Newsletter
    Link to MLBTR on Kimbrel
    Link to Jaffe on Kimbrel
    Link to McCann clip
    Link to Ben C. on the odds 1
    Link to Ben C. on the odds 2
    Link to 538 predictions check
    Link to Silver on randomness
    Link to Birnbaum on randomness
    Link to Ben on postseason sweeps
    Link to Chass on “digital dandy”
    Link to Dan on “digital dandy”
    Link to MLBPA lawsuit
    Link to SAFE Bet Act info 1
    Link to SAFE Bet Act info 2
    Link to Slow Boring on sports betting
    Link to Premier League ad ban
    Link to Wrigley sportsbook article
    Link to UK celebrity ad ban
    Link to Craggs on sports betting
    Link to Woj retirement tweet
    Link to ESPN Woj news
    Link to The Ringer on Woj
    Link to Schefter quote
    Link to Ben on newsbreaking
    Link to insider scandals
    Link to Sharpe apology
    Link to Schumaker clip
    Link to Abe Simpson clip
    Link to A Game of Inches
    Link to Strike Four
    Link to Game of Inches on the IBB
    Link to Posnanski on the IBB

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