The Tigers Are Alive and, Well, You Know Where This Is Going
There’s still a chance Tarik Skubal pitches for the Detroit Tigers in the postseason this year.
Trading Skubal before the 2026 deadline makes sense for the Tigers. I think that’s pretty well established. Detroit has a losing record, less than one-in-three odds to make the playoffs per our odds, and one of the best players in the league on an expiring deal. This is the ideal trade deadline scenario.
But things have become more muddled in recent weeks. The Tigers are hot, having gone 25-16 since June 1. They finally look like the team we projected to win the AL Central before the season began. Still, they’d need to go 9-2 to even reach the deadline with a .500 record, underscoring the depth of the hole they dug early in the year. With less than two weeks before this crucial decision point, the Tigers have stumbled upon a universal truth: Being alive is complicated.
The Tigers’ season started well enough. They snuck out of April with an even 16-16 record and a positive run differential. They even began May by taking two of three from the Rangers. But on May 4, Skubal landed on the IL with loose bodies in his elbow, the latest in a string of injuries to the rotation. They lost that night and began a brutal 4-21 stretch that saw them sink to the worst record in baseball by the end of the month.
It wasn’t really the absence of Skubal that was the issue, as Jay Jaffe wrote at the time. In May, their batters posted a league-worst 69 wRC+ — nobody hit fewer homers, and only the Angels struck out more. When the offense did manage a lead, it was quickly given up by a shallow bullpen, which turned in 24 meltdowns in May. There aren’t many enjoyable brands of losing baseball, but slogging through a 1-0 game only to implode at the end is among the most frustrating. Attention understandably turned to Skubal’s return, and his seemingly inevitable departure at the deadline.
Then the calendar flipped to June. The Tigers began the month with a sweep of the first-place Rays, scoring 25 runs on 10 homers in three games, and they haven’t cooled since. Their 109 wRC+ in the last 41 games is top 10 in baseball, and their 72 homers are the most of any team. The lineup now has one of the best trios in the majors. Dillon Dingler (4.6) and Kevin McGonigle (4.0) each rank in the top 10 by WAR, and Riley Greene (2.8) ranks in the top 30. Colt Keith is on a hot streak, smacking eight homers since June 1 after going the first two months of the season without hitting any. The Tigers also just got Gleyber Torres and his 127 wRC+ back from an oblique injury on Monday. It’s suddenly a good, competitive lineup.
The bullpen has also been better of late. Their 3.19 ERA since June 1 is fifth in the majors. It’s a shallow group, and the end of games can still feel a bit dicey while closer Kenley Jansen runs a walk rate (14.7%) nearly double his career mark (7.9%). But the offense finally scoring a few runs has helped alleviate some of the pressure. In May, the Tigers bullpen faced the sixth-highest Leverage Index when entering games; since June 1, they’ve faced the lowest of any team. Again, it’s not a great bullpen, and this is likely the area the Tigers will want to address at the deadline assuming they add. But they’re asking less of them these days.
A competitive lineup and bullpen is all the Tigers should need with their rotation, which has allowed the fewest runs in the majors over this hot stretch. But that’s where the narrative of this article and the Tigers’ season recently became more complicated. Casey Mize pitched on Sunday, looking to continue his breakout season (his 2.79 ERA and 2.62 FIP would each be career bests), but he left the game early with the same groin tightness that’s landed him on the IL twice this year; he’s now day-to-day. Jack Flaherty pitched on Monday, hoping to build on a month-long hot streak (a 2.67 ERA and 3.25 FIP in seven starts since the beginning of June); he pitched poorly and was placed on the injured list with right flexor inflammation after the game. On Tuesday, Framber Valdez couldn’t make it out of the first inning in what ended up being an 11-2 blowout loss to the Cubs; he’s not known to be hurt, but he’s having the worst full season of his career, with a 4.57 ERA and 4.16 FIP in 20 starts.
Still, this has been one of the best rotations in the majors all season, even as they’ve dealt with injuries and inconsistency. They could still be that going forward… assuming Skubal remains their ace. He’s been great. He had solid numbers in seven starts before the IL stint (2.70 ERA and 2.11 FIP), he’s had solid numbers in seven starts after the IL stint (2.97 ERA and 3.66 FIP), and I assume he’ll have solid numbers the rest of the year, regardless of who he’s pitching for. He has been a little homer-prone, allowing 1.09 per nine innings, compared to 0.71 between 2022 and 2025. But his stuff and command metrics look the same as ever, and he hasn’t given up more hard contact or barrels overall. I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt and assume it’s a sample-size blip, though it’ll certainly be something teams assess ahead of the deadline.
Again, while Skubal’s absence wasn’t the Tigers’ main issue in May, we can see they’ve largely played like a playoff-bound team the days he’s been on the active roster:
We can also see the Tigers have maybe been a bit unlucky to this point. They are six games under their pythagorean record — the largest discrepancy in the majors this year. That’s driven in part by a 10-17 record in one-run games. In games decided by more than one run, they’re an even 37-37 with a +31 run differential; they’re 20-12 with a +62 run differential since June 1. And so the Tigers seem to be better than their record would indicate, and they are indeed gaining ground. But at 6 1/2 back of the Guardians and White Sox in the Central, and five back of the Red Sox for the third Wild Card, they’re running out of time to make this a legitimate playoff push.
The Tigers must weigh what that long-shot postseason push is worth. They have a young, team-controlled core that could be competitive for years to come. Trading Skubal could obviously help add to their future ambitions. They also don’t technically need Skubal to get to the 2026 postseason. They’d still have an above-average rotation without him (depending on the health of Mize and Flaherty), and some of the players they’d get back in a trade could potentially help them this year. Plus, even if they do get to October with Skubal, it doesn’t guarantee they’ll advance — the Tigers lost both games he pitched in last year’s ALDS. Holding on to such a potentially valuable trade chip only to narrowly miss the postseason or suffer an early exit could generate some hard feelings and hot seats.
Still, this is a legitimate chance for the Tigers. This is the bird in the hand. It’s a fairly important bird, too. Skubal probably doesn’t have the longevity in Detroit to be considered the “best” pitcher in franchise history, but he’s the rare, era-defining player — one still largely in the prime of his career. This is the type of chance a front office typically builds toward, not away from. A late-season comeback and a deep playoff run on the shoulders of a franchise icon has to be worth something beyond long-term efficiencies in team building. And the Tigers will likely extend Skubal a qualifying offer this offseason, meaning they’d at least receive an extra draft pick should he sign elsewhere (assuming the system remains the same under the new CBA, of course). Sure, their midseason stumble raises questions about the team’s potential in 2026, but it should also raise questions about its potential in 2027 and 2028 and 2029. Nothing is guaranteed in baseball, especially when a player like Skubal walks out the door.
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Jay Jaffe
