Two months ago, the Blue Jays marauded their way through the playoffs despite a bullpen they preferred not to touch with a thirty-nine-and-a-half-foot pole. They started the offseason by adding to the rotation, with Dylan Cease the big name acquisition and KBO MVP Cody Ponce an interesting flier. Now, they’ve turned their attention to relief pitching, and they’re working every angle there. They selected hard-throwing relief option Spencer Miles in the Rule 5 draft, traded for sidearmer Chase Lee, and late last week added the piece de resistance, the weirdest reliever in baseball. That’s right: Tyler Rogers and Toronto agreed to terms on a three-year, $37 million deal with a vesting option that could push it to four years and $48 million.

I’m legally obligated to lead any article about Rogers by mentioning his unconventional delivery. He throws upside down, it’s true. He throws in the low-to-mid-80s as a result, with movement that resembles nothing else in baseball. It’s hard to wrap your head around how his pitches move. His slider has huge positive vertical break; it’s a regular slider turned upside down. His fastball, naturally enough, breaks downward, which results in some incredibly counter-intuitive at-bats; despite being about 10 miles an hour faster, it falls meaningfully more than the slider on its path homeward.

With that out of the way, forget what Rogers throws like for a while. I’m sure that’s interesting to the Blue Jays, but what actually matters at the end of the day is how effective he is. He’s very effective, as it turns out. His career 2.76 ERA is flattered slightly by all his years calling spacious Oracle Park home, but not as much as you’d think. His 67 ERA- is a top-15 mark among relievers since his 2019 debut, and I actually think ERA- punishes him, because his specific game doesn’t benefit as much as most pitchers from a big outfield. He gets a ton of grounders. He perennially runs a low BABIP allowed, and it’s no fluke; batters just can’t square him up. Read the rest of this entry »

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. This is the sixth year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but we use that as a rule of thumb.

A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.

All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »

If the Tigers make the postseason for a third consecutive year in 2026, they’ll have a closer with plenty of experience. Kenley Jansen is bound for Detroit on a one-year, $11 million contract with a club option for 2027.

Jansen, 38, is just about the most experienced relief pitcher on the market. He leads all active relief pitchers in regular-season appearances, innings, strikeouts, and saves; in the postseason, he’s second all-time, behind Mariano Rivera, in all of those categories as well. At his peak, Jansen was the Dodgers’ late-inning enforcer, posting sub-2.00 ERAs and pairing strikeout rates in the 40s with walk rates under 5%. And just like Rivera, he did it all using a cutter and little else. Read the rest of this entry »

The Baltimore Orioles will be different in 2026, and not just because of roster additions that already include Pete Alonso and Taylor Ward, with more almost certain to follow. They’ve hired a new manager (Craig Albernaz), replaced a few coaches, and done some reshuffling at the executive level. In a sport where remaining stagnant can be deleterious, the O’s are moving forward on the heels of a disappointing 2025 season.

A precipitous dip in the win column — 91 in 2024, just 75 last year — accentuated the need for changes, but that isn’t the only reason. According to Mike Elias, progress is an ongoing endeavor.

“We’re constantly evolving, having to respond to other teams’ getting better in areas,” Baltimore’s president of baseball operations told me during last month’s GM Meetings. “We make changes every year. We’re actually undergoing quite an overhaul at the major league level right now with our staff. We’ve done some reformatting in the front office, although certainly not to the degree we did when we came in.”

Things changed markedly after Elias arrived in November 2018 and began rebuilding the organization. Analytics — an area in which the Orioles had been well behind the times —- was of course a major focus. But while giant strides have been made, there is no finish line to reach. Moreover, an old Satchel Paige adage applies: “Don’t look back. Something might be gaining on you.” Read the rest of this entry »

Compared to last year, when we saw multiple players sign record-setting contracts, this week’s Winter Meetings were rather tame. That’s not to say it was dull or that nothing happened. Edwin Díaz rejected an offer to re-sign with the Mets for more money because he wanted to pitch for the Dodgers. Kyle Schwarber returned to the Phillies on a five-year, $150 million contract, a massive deal considering he’s a DH who turns 33 in March. Pete Alonso drove from his home in Tampa up to Orlando to meet with several suitors, then signed a five-year, $155 million deal with the Orioles; the Mets, the team for whom he spent his first seven seasons and set the franchise home run record, did not extend him a contract offer. Several smaller moves happened, too. Michael Soroka joined the Diamondbacks on a one-year deal, and Steven Matz signed with the Rays for two years. The Tigers brought back Kyle Finnegan on a two-year, $19 million contract, and the Pirates became the latest team to believe they can fix Gregory Soto, signing him for one year and $7.75 million. The Braves added outfielder Mike Yastrzemski on Wednesday night.

The fun didn’t stop when the Winter Meetings did, though. On Thursday, while most of us at FanGraphs were flying home, the Braves signed reliever Robert Suarez for three years and $45 million. And then on Friday, the Blue Jays and Tyler Rogers agreed to a three-year, $37 million deal, with a vesting option for a fourth year.

We won’t cover those moves, or any of the others that went down this week, in this column. You can find them in Jon Becker’s latest Matrix Reloaded. Instead, today we’ll be answering your questions about players with more All-Star appearances than career WAR, the ABS challenge system, Shohei Ohtani’s World Series Game 3 performance, and more. Before we do, though, I’d like to remind you that this mailbag is exclusive to FanGraphs Members. If you aren’t yet a Member and would like to keep reading, you can sign up for a Membership here. It’s the best way to both experience the site and support our staff, and it comes with a bunch of other great benefits. Also, if you’d like to ask a question for an upcoming mailbag, send me an email at mailbag@fangraphs.com. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Garrett Stubbs and the latest example of eyebrow-raising off-the-field Phillies behavior (content warning: adult breast milk consumption), then (14:58) discuss the Pete Alonso signing from the Orioles’ and Mets’ perspectives, Stat Blast (47:09) about teams losing long-tenured/productive players and rapid roster turnover among title winners, and recap (1:05:25) a smattering of transactions to put a bow on the week of Winter Meetings.

Audio intro: Tom Rhoads, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Philip Bergman, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to cursed Stubbs TikTok
Link to info on breast milk drinking
Link to bodybuilders and breast milk
Link to Stubbs on EW
Link to Phillies himbo article 1
Link to Phillies himbo article 2
Link to FG post on Alonso
Link to Alonso’s career splits
Link to O’s vs. LHP
Link to Sheehan on the O’s
Link to O’s offense sim
Link to team SP projections
Link to Post cover 1
Link to Post cover 2
Link to “Headless Body in Topless Bar”
Link to Stat Blast spreadsheet
Link to FG post on Suarez
Link to FG post on Yastrzemski
Link to FG post on Finnegan
Link to FG post on Thomas
Link to over/under draft results
Link to MLBTR on Garcia
Link to MLBTR on Rogers
Link to Hughes/Fitzy story

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Happy Friday (and Sad End of Winter Meetings Week), everyone. For those keeping score, my final coffee-consumed-to-transactions-completed ratio in Orlando (including airport coffee and transactions) was 132 ounces to eight transactions. In between kibitzing with my FanGraphs colleagues and the folks in the media who I only get to see once a year or had never met, the Matrix was humming along as always.

As ever, I’ll get into the big happenings of the last seven days, starting with bigger signings and funneling down to the smallest ones, and then going over trades. Read the rest of this entry »

How many outfielders does one team need? It really, really depends on who you ask. On Thursday, the Royals and Brewers decided that they needed to add at least one more each to their very differently sized stores. Kansas City signed Lane Thomas to a one-year deal for $5.2 million, with up to another million in incentives, according to Will Sammon of The Athletic and Mark Feinsand of MLB.com, while Milwaukee agreed to a major league deal with Akil Baddoo, the terms of which are not yet known, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. It’s safe to assume it’s a split contract, as Baddoo still has one minor league option left.

Thomas is by far the bigger addition, but we’re going to start in Milwaukee in order to highlight two very different approaches to building an outfield. Read the rest of this entry »

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