FanGraphs Baseball

On Tuesday night, as I watched Luis Arraez, sparkler in hand, chatting with Otto Lopez outside the National League dugout, I couldn’t help but reflect on how he ended up in Philadelphia. This is Arraez’s fourth All-Star selection, but it’s also his first in four years. Although we’re only 90 games into the season, his 3.7 WAR is already a career high. As you surely know, the biggest improvement in his game came with the glove. Michael Rosen put it simply enough back in May, with an article titled “Luis Arraez Is Good at Defense Now.” At the time, Arraez had put up 5 FRV over 30 games. In the ensuing 61 games, he’s accrued another 3 FRV. The pace has slowed down, but he’s still grading out as an excellent defender (though the other defensive metrics admittedly disagree).

Today, however, we’re interested in Arraez’s offensive improvement. Arraez won his first batting title in 2022, and he did more than just put up a high batting average. He also walked more than he struck out, earning a 130 wRC+. He followed it up with a 131 mark in 2023, though he did so in a slightly different fashion. Both his walks and his strikeouts dropped below 6%, but he ran a .362 BABIP, which led to a .354 batting average. Essentially, he leaned way, way into his status as a contact god, and the sky-high BABIP made it all work out beautifully.

But Arraez took things too far. In 2024 and 2025 combined, his walk and strikeout rates fell below 5%, and his .307 BABIP, while above the league average, wasn’t good enough to carry an offensive profile that features no walks and no power. He ran a 107 combined wRC+, and because he was putting up negative value in the other parts of the game, he ended up with just 2.0 WAR. That put his value squarely between an average player and a replacement-level one. Read the rest of this entry »

Here are two things that are true about Red Sox owner John Henry:

1. He owns a newspaper, the Boston Globe.
2. He refuses to speak to the press.

Henry hasn’t taken questions from Red Sox reporters since 2020, amid the nuclear fallout of his club’s decision to trade Mookie Betts. Following Boston’s excision in April of longtime manager Alex Cora and five of his coaches, the Fenway Sports Group boss faced renewed calls to speak publicly.

“The owner’s silence isn’t golden,” wrote The Athletic’s Brittany Ghiroli, “it’s cowardly and speaks volumes about how one of the sport’s most iconic franchises has become rudderless.”

Stephanie Apstein, then of Sports Illustrated, also excoriated Henry for his refusal to face the music, declaring that he “should sell the team” — an opinion shared by the fans who chanted just that at Fenway Park earlier this season.

With the second half of their season beginning on Friday and the trade deadline fast approaching, the suddenly red-hot — but still sub-.500 — Red Sox face a crucial decision point. Will they be sellers if they scuffle or tread water coming out of the All-Star break? Or load up for a run at a wild card berth? Right now, Boston is only a half-game out of the final spot. Will chief baseball officer Craig Breslow be able to add salary to bolster his squad, winners of nine straight and 14 of its last 16? Through it all, Henry has kept mum. Read the rest of this entry »

Today, it’s another Killers two-fer, covering the left side of the infield. While still focusing on teams that meet the loose definition of a contender (Playoff Odds of at least 10%, a criterion that 22 of the 30 teams meet) and that have gotten about 0.6 WAR or less out of a position thus far (which prorates to 1.0 WAR over a full season), I have also incorporated our Depth Charts’ rest-of-season WAR projections into the equation for an additional perspective. That may suggest that some of these teams will clear the bar by a significant margin, but even so, I’ve included them here because their performance at that spot merits a closer a look. All statistics are through July 12.

Read the rest of this entry »

With the MLB Draft and all the All-Star Week festivities in the rearview mirror, it’s the perfect time to take stock of where each team finds itself heading into the second half of the season. Today, I’ll cover the teams ranked 18th to 30th according to our power rankings, with the top-rated teams to follow tomorrow.

Our power rankings use a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant ranking format that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). The weighted Elo ranks are then displayed as “Power Score” in the tables below. As the best and worst teams sort themselves out between now and October, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise remains reactive to hot streaks and cold snaps. If you’re looking for a visual representation of the ups and downs of your team throughout the season, look no further than the brand new Power Rankings Board in the FanGraphs Lab.

First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times where I take editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula. Read the rest of this entry »

Gage Jump is no. 73 on The Board and no. 2 on our Athletics prospect rankings. Moreover, he is now a big leaguer. Called up from Triple-A Las Vegas in late May, the 23-year-old southpaw has since made nine starts and logged a 3.51 ERA, a 3.31 FIP, and a 23.5% strikeout rate over 48 2/3 innings. Selected in the second round of the 2024 draft out of LSU, he debuted professionally last season and played at both High-A Lansing and Double-A Midland.

His pitching knowledge stands out nearly as much as his plus raw stuff and what our lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen described back in April as a “super short arm action.” Jump is studious about his craft, and he has been since his days as a San Juan Capistrano prep player. Prior to joining the collegiate ranks, he was rated as the top left-handed pitcher in the state of California.

Jump discussed his data-influenced approach to pitching when the A’s played in Detroit this past week.

———

David Laurila: What have you learned about pitching — specifically about yourself as a pitcher — since coming to pro ball?

Gage Jump: “Interesting. That’s a tough question. I would say that I was very fortunate to go to a good private school, and that when I was young I was introduced to things like Plyo balls and Rapsodo. Our head coach at JSierra [Catholic High School] brought out Kyle Boddy [from Driveline]. I wasn’t a big kid and wasn’t throwing very hard, so I wanted to understand what everything meant and how to get the ball to move a certain way. Of course, just because I know certain things doesn’t mean I’m able to make them happen, which is why I think pitching is so much fun. You’re always trying to develop and get better, and while you could know the answers, it’s still super hard to put your hand in a certain position, know where your body is at, and get [the results] you want. Read the rest of this entry »

Last week, Bryce Harper looked briefly like a villain. I’m sure you know the story by now, so I’ll keep this recap brief. On Thursday, the Philadelphia Inquirer published a story about a gambler who is suing FanDuel and DraftKings for allegedly using “their products and VIP services to intentionally maximize addiction.” The specific VIP service that turned this into such a big story was a video, branded with the FanDuel logo, in which Harper thanked the fan for his support. The idea that the biggest stars in baseball are secretly recording videos as perquisites to keep deeply indebted gambling addicts hooked on FanDuel understandably outraged many people, but it was an odd story, because Harper was not known to have any affiliation with FanDuel.

The truth was, well, stupid. Harper really doesn’t have any affiliation with FanDuel. A FanDuel employee ordered the video on Cameo, and told Harper what to say. Harper read the script he was given, which included the phrase, “Your host Bryttanni from FanDuel wanted to make sure your Thanksgiving was extra special,” and then the employee slapped a logo on the video. Harper has since released a statement which read, in part, “I did not know FanDuel would do this, I did not consent to it, and FanDuel had no right to do it. Had I known FanDuel’s true intent, I would not have made the video.” That’s about as unequivocal as it gets. Harper said the request was for a personal video, and that “Cameo had a separate category for business video requests, and at the time I did not know this video would be used for commercial purposes.” The statement also included screenshots of the instructions he received through Cameo, script and all. Harper isn’t really the villain here.

It’s not at all surprising that someone who spends their workdays figuring out how to squeeze more money out of people with gambling problems would try to get a video like this made. What’s surprising is that they were actually able to do it. In this article, I’m going to ask and answer several smaller questions about the relationship between Cameo and baseball. I’m doing so to compensate for the fact that I have no way of answering the really big question that’s staring us right in the face: Why the heck is Bryce Harper on Cameo? Read the rest of this entry »

PHILADELPHIA — “What could Jac Caglianone possibly have done to these people?” I thought to myself on Monday night. The young Kansas City Royals slugger has scarcely been in the majors a year; he’s played the Phillies only six times and not accomplished much. Surely Phillies fans didn’t have a consensus view — good or bad — on his college career at the University of Florida. If there is a historical grudge against the Royals, it’s faded to nothingness 46 years after the two teams met in the World Series.

And yet he was getting booed. I didn’t understand it. Surely Philadelphia would be predisposed to love this up-and-coming Italian-American slugger with 80-grade power and an inoffensive home market. Not all of the 43,000 sweat-drenched unfortunates in attendance were Phillies fans — enough Orioles diehards had made the trip up from Baltimore to make their customary National Anthem shout audible throughout the park — but the majority of the onlookers were locals.

And they were letting Caglianone have it.

Then Jordan Walker ducked through the arch to have Michael Buffer call his name, and the fans’ opprobrium continued. Instantly, it was clear: Hometown heroes Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper were in the Home Run Derby field, and everyone else was going to get jeered mercilessly. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about all aspects of the Home Run Derby spectator experience, both in the ballpark and from afar: the new format, the Netflix broadcast, the Philly fans, Jordan Walker’s win, and more. Then (49:12) they discuss how All-Star selections increasingly reflect same-season performance, Bruce Meyer’s and Rob Manfred’s comments to the BBWAA, negotiations over MLB players’ participation in the 2028 Olympics, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Ceddanne Rafaela’s mutual lovefest, and the ice-cold A’s and red-hot Red Sox.

Audio intro: Jonathan Crymes, “Effectively Wild Theme 2”
Audio outro: Moon Hound, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to FG HRD recap
Link to LHB-heavy preview
Link to MLB HRD notes
Link to LHB park factors
Link to RHB park factors
Link to “Year of the LHH” post
Link to MLB.com on Walker
Link to list of youngest HRD winners
Link to Walker on inspirational value
Link to historical HRD results
Link to McGwire Simpsons scene
Link to Marchand on Netflix
Link to Sam on the Derby’s future
Link to HRD X wiki
Link to Meg’s Arozarena photo
Link to Posnanski on the HRD
Link to Philly Drew/batteries incident
Link to Philly Santa Claus incident
Link to Paine on All-Star selections
Link to past EW discussion on selections
Link to Manfred competitive balance quote
Link to Meyer on MLB.TV ads
Link to Meyer/Manfred messaging summary
Link to Passan on the Olympics
Link to Drellich on the Olympics
Link to The West Wing quote
Link to Rafaela/PCA article
Link to FG WAR leaderboard
Link to playoff odds changes
Link to A’s firing article
Link to team road FIP
Link to team home FIP
Link to team batting WAR
Link to Sheehan on the Sox
Link to conn wiki

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JJ Wetherholt is one of the biggest All-Star snubs this year, but he still had a pretty great end to the first half of his rookie season. On Friday, he agreed to an eight-year contract extension that runs until the end of the 2034 season. Wetherholt is hitting .259/.356/.399 for a 114 wRC+ and 3.5 WAR, the last number leading the St. Louis Cardinals and ranking second among all second basemen, in a virtual tie with Brice Turang and trailing only Luis Arraez, whose advantage of two-tenths of a win comes from his time as a DH. The eight-year deal guarantees that Wetherholt will make $112.5 million, with the potential to net an additional $20 million from MVP votes and All-Star appearances. He also receives a $2 million signing bonus this fall, which ensures he’ll get something soon if the upcoming CBA negotiation proves to be an extended one.

We can argue all day whether or not Wetherholt is the most glaring All-Star omission this year, but with eight of the top 10 second basemen by WAR not making the cut, and a whole bunch of other positions to dig through, I’d have to write a very different article to tackle that question. But it’s inarguable that Wetherholt is having a marvelous rookie season, and is one of the favorites to win NL Rookie of the Year honors when it’s over. Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »