Last year, Mark Simon of Sports Info Solutions asked me to vote on the Fielding Bible awards. If you’re not familiar with them, they’re my preferred defensive award, created by John Dewan and SIS in 2006. They’re a Gold Glove equivalent for the major leagues as a whole, with one award given out per position. Members of a panel made up of a variety of baseball experts vote for five players at each spot; there are also additional awards for best multi-position defender, defensive player of the year, and defensive team of the year. I’m happy to say that Mark was kind enough to ask me to participate again this year. The results will be released tomorrow, October 23, at 2 PM ET. Update: they’ve now been handed out. Winners are denoted below with an asterisk.

Voting for a national award is a prestigious honor, and this particular award carries extra meaning for me. The list of panelists is a who’s who of the writers and commentators who got me into baseball. Peter Gammons is a frequent voter, for goodness sake. Bill James, the godfather of sabermetrics, was an inaugural panel member. The founder of Strat-o-Matic votes! I absolutely wouldn’t be doing this job today if I hadn’t spent whole summers as a kid playing my All-Stars against my dad’s squad in that formative simulation. Voting for this award has been a dream come true.

Last year, I spent some time talking to MLB Chief Data Architect Tom Tango about the proper way to think about the constellation of reputable advanced defensive metrics I had to choose from when assessing players. It’s a veritable acronym soup out there. There’s DRS, FRV, and DRP, as well as legacy and component metrics like UZR, OAA, RDA, and Total Zone. Each of these systems attempts to measure defense quantitatively. All of them have their merits, and all of them do a fairly solid job of what they say on the label, as it were. On the other hand, they don’t always agree. As an example, Zach Neto was either 13 runs above average (DRS), three runs below average (FRV), or roughly average (DRP) in 2025. Confusing!

Neto is hardly the only player to fall into this camp. That’s part of the reason there are so many defensive systems, in fact; if they all said the same thing, there would be no need for this dizzying array of options. Each system has its own methodology, and measures success and failure using its own definitions. A holistic, overarching view of defense requires weighting each of these metrics carefully and then coming to an overall view of each player based on each system’s particular merits. To make matters even more confusing, each “system” is itself multiple systems specialized for individual positions. The first base model and the left field model clearly can’t be the same, and don’t even get me started on catching.

I’ll spare you the nitty gritty of how I handled this difficult puzzle (last year’s version of this article offers a deep dive into my methods if you’re interested), but I created weighted ranking scores for each position based on the relative stability of the metrics and used that to create my initial rankings. From there, I used my own expertise and judgment to move players around from their initial ordering. I tried to have a light touch overall, though. No amount of eye test vibes could overrule the fact that Heliot Ramos grades out as one of the worst defenders in the major leagues (for the record, his defense fails the eye test, too). I considered past defensive value because I know that single-season defensive statistics are noisy, but mostly as a tiebreaker; I’m attempting to vote for the best defenders in the major leagues in 2025, not the best defenders of the last few years.

I think this process did a good job of combining the best information that publicly available defensive systems can produce with a critical, evidence-focused eye on the game. I watch a ton of baseball, and I also spend quite a bit of time thinking about how to measure player skill, and the limits of doing so. I’m just talking my own book here, but I really do believe this is the best way I can determine who played the best defense in baseball this season. So without further ado, let’s look at my infield ballot. Read the rest of this entry »

Kevin McGonigle is an elite prospect, and his bat is a big reason why. Playing across three levels in the Detroit Tigers organization — topping out at Double-A — the 21-year-old shortstop/third baseman slashed .305/.408/.583 with 19 home runs and 182 wRC+ over 397 plate appearances in 2025. Ranked third on The Board behind only Konnor Griffin and Jesús Made, McGonigle has been described by Eric Longenhagen as having “real juice in his hands” and a swing that is “geared for launch.” Built to bash baseballs, McGonigle’s left-handed stroke is both compact and lethal.

Currently with the Arizona Fall League’s Scottsdale Scorpions — he’s in the desert primarily to work on his defense — McGonigle has a bright future regardless of where he ends up in the infield. Longenhagen feels that his best fit might be second base. But again, there is juice in his hands. The bat is McGonigle’s carrying tool, and it promises to carry him a long way.

McGonigle sat down to talk hitting prior to a recent game at Scottsdale Stadium.

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David Laurila: How have you evolved as a hitter? For instance, if I looked at video from the time you signed and compared it now, would I see the same guy?

Kevin McGonigle: “You’d see the same swing. I’m a little bit bigger now, obviously, but the swing hasn’t changed. It’s been the same since I was 10 years old, to be honest with you. That’s the way my body naturally wants to move, and the best way I can explode on a baseball, so I try to keep doing the same thing I’ve done since I was younger.”

Laurila: How does your body naturally move?

McGonigle: “I’ve got the toe tap, and I’m in my legs more than a lot of guys are at the plate. I pretty much see ball, hit ball, and try to… not take the same swing. I feel that you’re going to have a different swing on every pitch. But I try to keep the same toe tap, the same everything.”

Laurila: While you’re continuing to do what comes naturally, you also have talented hitting instructors to work with. How are you balancing that?

McGonigle: “What I like about the Tigers is that they’re not really hands-on unless you have questions. I go to them for little pieces, like routines or drills that I want to do. One big thing for me was bat speed, so they put me on a bat-speed program last offseason. That really helped me with power this year. Bat-to-ball, of course. Gap-to-gap power. I’m trusting in them — the Tigers and all the coordinators — because they’re there to help you get better and better each day.”

Laurila: What is your approach in terms of where you’re looking to hit the ball?

McGonigle: “It depends on who is on the mound. If a good lefty is out there, I’ll think left-center gap and then just react to his offspeed and pull it. Same thing with right-handers. If it’s a guy throwing really hard, like upper-90s, maybe I’ll think right-center. That’s the farthest I’ll go with a heater. Then, changeup, curveball — whatever secondary he throws — pull it down the line. Top hook it in the corner is what I like thinking.

“When I’m on, I’m mostly hitting balls hard in the right-field gap or down the right-field line. That’s even with pitches dotted away. I’ll still be able to get under it and pull it. There does comes a time and place when I want to let the ball travel, though. With two strikes, I try to use all parts of the field.

“I’m also always sitting on fastballs and reacting to offspeed from there. I don’t like sitting on other pitches, really. If it’s a lefty that just spams sweepers, I’ll sit sweeper, but that’s about it. For me, it’s mostly all reaction.”

Laurila: My impression is that you fit into the KISS category — Keep It Simple, Stupid — yet you think about hitting quite a bit. Is that accurate?

McGonigle: “Definitely. I mean, if I’m hitting the ball hard and it’s going right at somebody, there’s nothing you can do about it. So, my main thing is to just find the barrel. That’s it. If you find the barrel, it’s a win. If you don’t, then get him next time.”

Laurila: Coming up from amateur ball and and through different levels of pro ball, you’re basically the same guy, but with more reps under your belt…

McGonigle: “Yeah, just seeing more pitching. In high school, I didn’t really see 95 [mph] really at all. Once I got a feel for that, I had to get used to guys having better offspeed. They like to throw it in leverage counts, and that’s one thing I really needed to work on this year. Last year I got a lot of fastballs to hit, and this year they’re flipping in 3-0 sliders, 3-1 sliders, changeups in 0-0 counts.

“Getting my hack off on 0-0 counts when I get offspeed that is middle-middle, or it’s a get-me-over offspeed… if I swing and miss, so what? I’m down 0-1. But if I put a barrel on it, then it’s a win. I’m more aggressive now than I was last year.

“If he’s a fastball-changeup guy who throws a lot of changeups, I’ll still sit fastball. A lot of times I’m going to look up. The changeup is going to start there, then have a little bottom to it and go to the heart of the plate. I’m kind of tunneling where I want the pitch to start.”

Laurila: Has bat-speed training helped you react better to heaters when you’ve been expecting something offspeed?

McGonigle: “Yeah. I’d say there were a few times this year that I was sitting offspeed, a guy threw a heater down the middle, and I was still was able to hit it hard to left field. Having a quicker bat has definitely helped. I’m able to protect on two-strike counts. If I’m beat on a fastball, I can at least get a bat on it and foul it off, give myself life to hopefully win that two-strike count.”

Laurila: How much do strikeouts matter? That was something Riley Greene struggled with this year, even while putting up good numbers.

McGonigle: “It’s not a great feeling. I mean, Riley Greene is a great baseball player. I’m looking forward to hopefully one day sharing a field with him. He wouldn’t be in the spot he is right now if it wasn’t for the way he plays baseball, and the way he hits. Strikeouts aren’t the best thing in the world, but he also performed in all the different aspects of the game. The whole strikeout thing… I think it is a big deal, but not as big as everyone thinks it is.”

Laurila: Outside of defense, what do the Tigers want you to work on this coming offseason?

McGonigle: “We have exit meetings with our hitting coordinators — mine will be after [the AFL] — and off the top of my head, I don’t know exactly. But the curveball is one pitch that I struggled with this year. I was either under it, or on top of it.”

Laurila: Why was that?

McGonigle: “Some of it was timing, but some of it was swinging at the wrong curveballs. If it’s low, that’s where the pitcher wants it, and the high ones would kind of fool me. A pitcher would go up top with a curveball, and I would clip it back, whereas that’s a pitch you want to hammer. I’m so used to training it down in the zone, where pitchers usually want to get it, but now some guys are trying to get it up top. I need to work on that, on hitting offspeed up top.”

Laurila: Any final thoughts on hitting?

McGonigle: “There’s not a perfect swing. Every swing is going to be different. If it’s a low pitch, if it’s a high pitch, if it’s away… but you see a lot of guys trying to chase that perfect swing. That’s hard to do when you have a guy throwing 99 and it’s running 20 inches, or sinking 20 inches. My thought is just, ‘Go up there and get the bat to the ball.’ Keep it that simple. Don’t try to chase the perfect swing. I want my swing to be adjustable. Simple and adjustable.”

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Earlier “Talks Hitting” interviews can found through these links: Jo Adell, Jeff Albert, Greg Allen, Nolan Arenado, Aaron Bates, Jacob Berry, Alex Bregman, Bo Bichette, Justice Bigbie, Cavan Biggio, Charlie Blackmon, JJ Bleday, Bobby Bradley, Will Brennan, Jay Bruce, Triston Casas, Matt Chapman, Michael Chavis, Garrett Cooper, Gavin Cross, Jacob Cruz, Nelson Cruz, Paul DeJong, Brenton Del Chiaro, Josh Donaldson, Brendan Donovan, Donnie Ecker, Rick Eckstein, Drew Ferguson, Justin Foscue, Michael Fransoso, Ryan Fuller, Joey Gallo, Paul Goldschmidt, Devlin Granberg, Gino Groover, Matt Hague, Andy Haines, Mitch Haniger, Robert Hassell III, Austin Hays, Nico Hoerner, Jackson Holliday, Spencer Horwitz, Rhys Hoskins, Eric Hosmer, Jacob Hurtubise, Tim Hyers, Walker Jenkins, Connor Joe, Jace Jung, Josh Jung, Jimmy Kerr, Heston Kjerstad, Steven Kwan, Shea Langeliers, Trevor Larnach, Doug Latta, Dillon Lawson, Brooks Lee, Royce Lewis, Evan Longoria, Joey Loperfido, Michael Lorenzen, Mark Loretta, Gavin Lux, Dave Magadan, Trey Mancini, Edgar Martinez, Don Mattingly, Marcelo Mayer, Hunter Mense, Owen Miller, Paul Molitor, Colson Montgomery, Tre’ Morgan, Ryan Mountcastle, Cedric Mullins, Daniel Murphy, Lars Nootbaar, Logan O’Hoppe, Vinnie Pasquantino, Graham Pauley, David Peralta, Luke Raley, Julio Rodríguez, Brent Rooker, Thomas Saggese, Anthony Santander, Drew Saylor, Nolan Schanuel, Marcus Semien, Giancarlo Stanton, Spencer Steer, Trevor Story, Fernando Tatis Jr., James Tibbs III, Spencer Torkelson, Mark Trumbo, Brice Turang, Justin Turner, Trea Turner, Josh VanMeter, Robert Van Scoyoc, Chris Valaika, Zac Veen, Alex Verdugo, Mark Vientos, Matt Vierling, Luke Voit, Anthony Volpe, Joey Votto, Christian Walker, Jared Walsh, Jordan Westburg, Jesse Winker, Bobby Witt Jr. Mike Yastrzemski, Nick Yorke, Kevin Youkilis

My job is to write about baseball, which means that in large part, my job is to generate novel circumlocutions for the word “jump.” How many times can you say that somebody’s exit velocity jumped, their whiff rate jumped, their outfield jump jumped into the 82nd percentile before your editor is tempted to bludgeon you with a thesaurus? I would prefer not to find out, as I bruise easily.

I would estimate that I write the word jump about 20 times more often than I actually jump. Nobody jumps all that much on any given day. Unless you’re at the gym, unless you’re playing sports, unless you’re a child, life just doesn’t involve much jumping. This is intentional. It is a result of the way we have structured our lives. We keep things in reach. We have downstairs neighbors. We wear complicated shoes. With the notable exception of the décor at Barnes & Noble, nearly every aspect of our lives encourages us to remain seated. Jumping in jeans is a rare occurrence. All in all, this seems like a bad thing.

Every once in a while, jumping is a matter of practicality. There’s no way I’m lugging the stepladder out from the laundry room just to get this stupid cake pan off the top shelf. I’m not tracking back five blocks just because a tiny part of this walkway is blocked by a low fence. I’ve been staring at the backs of various heads for this entire concert and I just want to get one good, unobstructed look at the band. It never occurs to us at that moment, jumping out of some mixture of desperation and exasperation, that what we’re doing could be beautiful, graceful. Read the rest of this entry »

Hey kids, there’s a substitute teacher today! But I’ve been given the lesson plan, so we’re going to go ahead and talk about Milwaukee Brewers manager Pat Murphy — no spending the day watching old episodes of The Simpsons that I have on VHS, even though this classroom still has a functioning VCR for some reason. As your normal teacher, Mr. Clemens, would do, I’m going to grade Murphy based on his overall performance in the playoffs, rather than scrutinize every single micro decision made. If you’d like to see Mr. Clemens’ reports on the managers who lost in the various Division Series, you can find the American League write-up here, and the National League write-up here.

I find the Brewers fascinating, both because I’ve always appreciated them having the best logo in sports, and because I’m really bad at projecting them. While I had a better time of it than some others did this year, and at least only had them two wins short of the Cubs, the preseason ZiPS standings have repeatedly underestimated the Brew Crew. I’d love to be able to directly blame the computer for this phenomena, but ZiPS has actually done a solid job of projecting individual Milwaukee players. The problem is that when it comes time to guess exactly who will see the field, I’ve been giving them short shrift. In each of the last five seasons, if I had known precisely who would end up getting playing time, the preseason projections would have gone up by an average of just under four wins per year. It’s not simply that they’ve been healthier than expected, either; the Brewers tend to promote interesting players at a much faster pace than I expect them to, are very quick to understand what’s not working, and deploy role players extremely effectively.

OK, the bell rang, so let’s get going. Read the rest of this entry »

12:00

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to my first chat of the playoffs. Apologies that it’s been so long — on-site coverage, late nights, and quick turnarounds have made it hard to keep up here.

12:02

Jay Jaffe: Anyway, I’m glad we’ve been treated to some awesome playoff games and series. Last night’s ALCS Game 7 was a classic and a heartbreaker. As happy as I am for the Blue Jays fans in my life, i’m gutted for the Mariners fans — a group that includes colleagues and family.

12:03

Jay Jaffe: Yesterday I wrote about Vladimir Guerrero’s postseason for the ages https://blogs.fangraphs.com/vladimir-guerrero-jr-s-postseason-for-the-…. his wRC+ this October slipped from 302 to 280 during last night’s win, dropping from 2nd since the start of division play in 1969 to 4th. Still impressive!

12:03

Jay Jaffe: Anway, let’s get on with the show

12:06

Jay Jaffe: Heading into his age-29 season, coming off a very good season and the October showcase that he’s had, he has every reason to seek a deal longer than three years. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s after something much longer than that. I do believe the Mariners will make him a priority, but they shouldn’t wimp out. They were so close to that elusive World Series trip this year, and going back to skimping on quality players is going to reduce their chances of getting to the next step.

Read the rest of this entry »

The year of the splitter has come and gone. Actually, those of us who follow these things closely know that both 2023 and 2024 were considered the years of the splitter, and then we established back in March that 2025 would be the year of the kick change. While major league pitchers ran a 3.3% splitter rate in 2025, the highest mark since the pitch tracking era started in 2008, that represented a jump of just 0.21 percentage points from 2024. It’s a difference of less than one splitter per team every three games. While the number is still going up, the big increases came in 2023 and 2024, and the pace fell off this year.

That graph makes it official. This isn’t the year of the splitter. But now let me add another line to that graph. That was the regular season. We’re in the thick of the playoffs, so let’s throw the postseason in the mix, too. If you saw that first graph and wondered why I left all that empty space at the top, well, now you know.

That’s more like it. October 2025 has seen a splitter explosion. The red line is always going to be more volatile than the blue line because the postseason is such a small sample, but even so, the playoffs have seen a 6.6% splitter rate. That’s not just the highest we’ve ever seen. It’s twice the rate for any regular season or postseason in the past 23 years. Maybe 2025 was the year of the kick change, but October 2025 is very definitely shaping up to be the month of the splitter. The playoffs aren’t even over, and we’ve already seen more splitters this October than in the postseasons of 2023 and 2024 combined. Read the rest of this entry »

I have no idea what Dan Wilson was doing. With the Mariners clinging to a 3-1 lead in the seventh inning of Game 7 of the ALCS, their manager elected to bring in Eduard Bazardo, who’d just thrown two innings the night before, with two on and the top of the Blue Jays order coming up instead of going to his closer, Andrés Muñoz. It took two pitches for the decision to backfire. George Springer turned on the 1-0 pitch from Bazardo, a 96-mph thigh-high sinker over the inner third of the plate, and clobbered it over the left-center field wall. The three-run blast secured the Blue Jays their first American League pennant in 32 years. They’ll face the defending-champion Dodgers in the World Series, which begins on Friday at Rogers Centre.

I’m not going to get into all the chaos from last night’s decisive game here. For more on that, you should check out Eric Longenhagen’s recap. We’ve been covering both the Blue Jays and the Dodgers all postseason, and we’ll continue to do so during the World Series, so be sure to keep coming to FanGraphs throughout the Fall Classic.

A quick programming note before we continue: Our next mailbag will come out after the end of the World Series, whenever that may be. Also, this mailbag is exclusive to FanGraphs Members. If you aren’t yet a Member and would like to keep reading, you can sign up for a Membership here. It’s the best way to both experience the site and support our staff, and it comes with a bunch of other great benefits. Also, if you’d like to ask a question for an upcoming mailbag, send me an email at mailbag@fangraphs.com. Read the rest of this entry »