Everybody’s Singing the Good Team, Bad Bullpen Blues

Brad Penner-Imagn Images

Are you a fan of a team in playoff position? Are you tearing your hair out because their bullpen has been completely unable to get anybody out over the past couple weeks? Is this starting to get creepy? Does it feel as if I’m staring straight into your very soul? Worry not. I’m just playing the odds. Below is a table that shows bullpen performance over the last 14 days, but only for the 13 teams with at least a 12% chance of making the playoffs. I’ve highlighted the teams whose ERA ranks in the bottom half of the league over that stretch:

Bullpens Over the Last 14 Days
Team ERA Rank ERA FIP Rank FIP
Red Sox 5 3.40 7 3.37
Mariners 12 4.08 1 2.79
Dodgers 13 4.11 10 3.51
Astros 14 4.27 15 3.98
Phillies 15 4.29 14 3.88
Tigers 16 4.34 25 5.29
Rangers 17 4.46 5 3.28
Brewers 18 4.67 6 3.29
Padres 20 4.70 22 4.63
Mets 21 5.03 13 3.64
Yankees 23 5.23 2 2.93
Cubs 25 5.26 17 4.21
Blue Jays 26 5.28 19 4.29

There are the Red Sox in fifth place, looking solid with a 3.40 ERA. But, uh, this not exactly an encouraging sign for all these playoff teams. That’s a lot of yellow. Boston is the only team in the top 10; no one else has a bullpen ERA below 4.00. Only five of these teams are even in the top half of the league. The Mets, Yankees, Cubs, and Blue Jays all have ERAs over 5.00.

The Brewers are tied with the Twins for the league lead with five blown saves in the past two weeks. The Blue Jays and Phillies each have four. Just a reminder: The Brewers have the best record in baseball, and the Blue Jays and Phillies are tied for the second best. All of sudden, none of them can close out a game to save their lives.

Once again, I need to disavow any supernatural influence here. I don’t think there’s a paranormal reason that seemingly every good baseball team’s bullpen is in a rut. It’s mostly a coincidence. If we look at FIP, things are much more reasonable. Six of our 13 teams are in the top 10, and only four are in the bottom half of the league. That’s pretty much what you’d expect. Most of the good teams have strong bullpens. This is a short stretch, a small sample of innings, and a volatile cohort to start with. The Brewers’ bullpen has an excellent 3.29 FIP over the past two weeks, but it’s blown five saves anyway. Stuff happens.

I’ll break down the four teams at the bottom of the table along with a couple others I found noteworthy due to injury reasons, or because I’m worried about them heading into the playoffs, but that’s mostly what I wanted to tell you. All the bullpens seem to be blowing up right now. It’s weird. If you’re tearing your hair out because we’re in September and your bullpen can’t hold on to a lead, relax. First, there may be enough time to right the ship. Second, whoever you’re facing in the playoffs can’t hold a lead right now either, unless it’s the Red Sox (who gave up eight runs in a bullpen game last night, presumably because that’s what all the cool kids are doing).

Mets
The Mets lead the league with a whopping six relievers on the IL right now: Reed Garrett, Drew Smith, Danny Young, A.J. Minter, Max Kranick, and Dedniel Núñez. Smith, Minter, Kranick, and Garrett had all been pitching well before their injuries. That’s four good relievers lost, and only Garrett has a chance to return this season. That’s how the Mets ended up claiming Wander Suero, who has thrown just 6 1/3 major league innings in the last two seasons combined, from the Braves off waivers yesterday. Suero has a 1.35 ERA and 2.63 FIP over 46 2/3 innings in Triple-A Gwinnett, and he will get the chance to prove that’s not a fluke. The Mets called him up less than half an hour ago to take the spot of the struggling Kodai Senga, who has been optioned to Syracuse.

More than that, Ryan Helsley has been completely ineffective since the deadline trade that brought him to New York from St. Louis. He had a 3.00 ERA and 3.56 FIP as a Cardinal, and he has a 11.45 ERA and 6.50 FIP as a Met. Helsley said last week that he thinks he’s been tipping pitches. With any luck, he’ll get that sorted out. If he does that and Garrett comes back pitching well, they’ll join Tyler Rogers, lefties Brooks Raley and Gregory Soto, and closer Edwin Díaz, all of whom are putting up good numbers this season. Somehow the Mets could still put together a solid bullpen going into the playoffs.

Dodgers
The Dodgers’ relievers rank third in the majors with 5.2 WAR this season, but that’s mostly because they’ve been asked to throw 570 1/3 innings, the most in baseball. At the moment, RosterResource says they’re tied with the Brewers at five injured relievers, one behind the Mets. They lost Evan Phillips to Tommy John surgery in May, deadline acquisition Brock Stewart went on the IL with shoulder inflammation almost immediately after the trade, and Alex Vesia strained an oblique on August 21. Jack Dreyer, Justin Wrobleski, and Ben Casparius are the only relievers on the team with FIPs below 3.50. Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates are load-bearing pieces who have taken major steps back and lost time to injury besides, and yet the Dodgers are still one of the higher teams on the list. After missing time with forearm tightness earlier in the season, Blake Treinen has allowed just two runs in his last 12 appearances, and his ERA is down to 3.00.

Yankees
The headliner here is the 5.60 ERA that Devin Williams has put up this season, but as Michael Baumann wrote earlier today, the underlying numbers aren’t that bad. They’re maybe even good. The Yankees lost Jake Cousins to Tommy John surgery in June and Jonathan Loáisiga to a flexor strain in August. Brent Headrick is also on the IL after taking a line drive off his pitching arm. The Yankees have also suffered blowups from Paul Blackburn and Yerry De los Santos. They pulled the plug on deadline acquisition Jake Bird almost immediately. He had a 4.73 ERA and and 3.50 FIP in Colorado before the deadline, but he got into just three games for the Yankees, allowing six runs over two innings before being optioned to Triple-A, where he has continued to struggle. Luke Weaver has been bitten by the home run bug lately, allowing four in his last seven appearances for an ERA of 5.14. However, his average exit velocity over that stretch is lower than it’s been the rest of the season, and he’s run a 2.53 xFIP. It seems more like bad luck than anything.

Fernando Cruz and David Bednar have been lights-out, Tim Hill is still a groundball machine, and Camilo Doval hasn’t allowed a run in his last five appearances. Over the entire season, the Yankees bullpen has a 3.93 xFIP, tied for second-best in baseball. Over the past two weeks, they’ve got the second-best FIP despite the hideous ERA. It’s hard to imagine them making a run without Williams and Weaver (The Deadly W’s) turning things around, but this isn’t necessarily a disastrous ‘pen either.

Cubs
By most metrics, the Cubs bullpen has been right in the middle of the pack this year. In the past two weeks, its 3.05 xFIP is the third best in baseball. So why are the ERA and FIP so ugly? That’s the danger of playing in homer-friendly Wrigley Field in August. Over that stretch, 21.1% of their fly balls have gone for home runs, second only to the Rockies (and not coincidentally, they recently spent a three-game series in Colorado). Drew Pomeranz and Taylor Rogers have put up good seasons, but have each given up a couple of homers in recent weeks, and because the Cubs have relied on their bullpen less than just about any other team over that stretch, those mistakes have been magnified. Nothing that’s happened in the past two weeks has made me change my opinion of this relief corps.

Phillies
Philadelphia’s bullpen has been an issue all year long. Free agent signings Joe Ross and Jordan Romano have not worked out at all, putting up a combined -0.5 WAR over 86 appearances and 93 2/3 innings. The good news is that the bullpen looks very different now. The Phillies released Ross, and Romano hit the IL with middle finger inflammation. They signed David Robertson in free agency in July, traded for Jhoan Duran at the deadline, and got star lefty José Alvarado back from an 80-game PED suspension on August 20. Alvardo has looked very rusty since his return and won’t be available for the playoffs, but Robertson and Duran have been excellent. Together with Matt Strahm, Orion Kerkering, and Tanner Banks, the Phillies should have a serviceable, if shallow, bullpen going into October. With Zack Wheeler out and Aaron Nola struggling, the rotation may be the bigger concern.

Blue Jays
How much time do you have? The Blue Jays had the worst bullpen in baseball in 2024, and if nothing else, they looked primed to bounce back. They non-tendered Jordan Romano. They signed the excellent Jeff Hoffman, traded for Nick Sandlin, brought back Yimi García and Ryan Yarbrough, and took flyers on arms like Amir Garrett, Jacob Barnes, and Richard Lovelady. And they have bounced back. They rank in the middle of the pack in both ERA and FIP, and seventh in xFIP. Lately, though, they just can’t seem to get outs.

They released Yarbrough before the season. The fliers they took haven’t worked out, nor have in-house guys like Chad Green, Zach Pop, and Erik Swanson. They’ve lost major pieces, with both Sandlin and García out for the season. Other injuries forced Easton Lucas and Eric Lauer into starting roles, where they’ve performed significantly worse. Hoffman put up three ugly performances in the last week of August, though he’s looked much better in the past week. Although the underlying numbers aren’t bad, deadline acquisition Louis Varland has a 6.91 ERA in 15 appearances as a Blue Jay.

If Hoffman can keep things straightened out, if Varland’s luck can turn around, if Lucas and Lauer can get back in the bullpen, if the arms that got them here – Yariel Rodríguez, Brendon Little, Braydon Fisher – can keep doing what they’re doing, the Blue Jays could have a decent bullpen going into the playoffs. But that’s a lot of ifs.


Starting Pitching Is Suddenly the Mariners’ Weak Link

Credit: Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images

The Mariners entered the season with a starting rotation that was the envy of nearly every other team in baseball, with four young homegrown pitchers in Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller, and Bryan Woo, and Luis Castillo as the veteran ace to lead the group. Our preseason projections had Seattle’s rotation as the seventh best in baseball, only held back by its lack of depth behind the top five starters. Three of those young starters appeared on Ben Clemens’ midseason Trade Value list, ranked 23rd (Kirby), 34th (Woo), and 36th (Gilbert). The M’s rotation has been the key to their success over the last few years, but lately, that same highly regarded group has been the weakest link for the Mariners as they fight to maintain a playoff spot.

Since the All-Star break, Seattle’s rotation has put up a 4.55 ERA and a 4.27 FIP, 19th and 16th in the majors, respectively. It’s been even worse over the last 30 days: a 4.94 ERA (20th) and a 4.66 FIP (21st). Kirby has allowed seven or more runs in two of his last four starts, and was knocked around for 10 hits and eight runs (seven earned) in two innings in his start against the Rays on Wednesday. Castillo has allowed five or more runs in three of his last four starts. Gilbert suffered through an ugly six-run blowup in Philadelphia a few weeks ago. Miller is sporting a 5.63 ERA since being activated off the IL on August 19. Even the metronomic Woo had his streak of 25 starts of at least six innings snapped on August 27.

These problems becomes even more stark when you compare their performance inside the confines of the extremely pitcher friendly T-Mobile Park to their struggles on the road. This season at home, the rotation is putting up a 3.40 ERA and a 3.82 FIP, fourth and ninth best in the majors, respectively. On the road, those marks drop to a 4.69 ERA (26th) and 4.44 (22nd). The Mariners have a 32-40 record on the road this year, and these pitching issues are a big reason why.

All of these struggles are showing up in the standings, too. The M’s are 22-22 during the second half, but since a 9-1 homestand to start the month of August, they’re 7-14, with four of those seven wins coming at home. Seattle has had two long East Coast road trips during this stretch, which have included sweeps by the Phillies and Rays, and a combined 3-12 record with three more games to play in Atlanta this weekend. Despite all this, the M’s currently hold the final AL Wild Card spot, just 1.5 games ahead of the Rangers and 3.5 games behind the Astros in the AL West.

It’s worth noting that three of the Mariners’ starters have spent a significant amount of time on the IL this year: Kirby was sidelined during spring training with a shoulder injury and wound up missing nearly two months of the season; Gilbert missed all of May and half of June with a flexor strain in his elbow; and Miller has had two separate IL stints due to inflammation in his elbow stemming from a bone spur. Seattle’s starters have thrown the most innings in baseball since the beginning of the 2022 season, and it’s possible that heavy workload over these past few years is catching up with them.

Here’s how the performance of the team’s five starters has changed from the first half to the second half:

Mariners Starters, First & Second Half Performance
First Half Second Half
Player IP ERA FIP K-BB% IP ERA FIP K-BB%
Luis Castillo 108.1 3.41 3.89 13.1% 47 5.17 4.61 17.0%
George Kirby 54 4.50 3.82 19.8% 50.2 4.44 3.28 15.6%
Logan Gilbert 61 3.39 3.01 29.3% 42.2 4.22 3.56 26.2%
Bryan Woo 114.2 2.75 3.45 19.6% 55 3.60 4.08 21.1%
Bryce Miller 48.2 5.73 4.47 7.4% 16 5.63 7.39 10.9%

It’s at least a little encouraging to see that the peripherals for Kirby and Gilbert look solid during the second half, even if their top line results have suffered. There are some red flags for Woo and Castillo, however; the former is 20 innings past his previous career high set last year and the latter is showing some worrying signs of fatigue. I think it’s worthwhile to take a closer look at Kirby, Gilbert and Castillo, and try to see what might be causing their issues and if there’s any hope of a turnaround in the final month of the season.

It’s been a really up-and-down season for Kirby. Maybe because of the shoulder injury, he’s never really looked like he’s settled in since being activated off the IL. The biggest clue he hasn’t been feeling like himself is his walk rate. From his debut in 2022 through the end of 2024, Kirby had exactly two starts where he allowed three walks; this year, he’s already had five starts where he’s allowed three walks. His walk rate has nearly doubled, though when it’s going from 3.0% to 5.9%, it’s still an above-average mark compared to the league.

I have a hunch that his command issues stem from a pretty significant change to his arm angle. Kirby had been throwing from a pretty standard three-quarters arm slot for his entire career, but it suddenly dropped eight degrees this year. I’m not sure if that change in mechanics stemmed from his shoulder injury — it’s possible he’s compensating for a still slightly damaged shoulder by dropping his arm slot, or that his body found a new “natural” arm slot during his rehab. Whatever the cause, the new mechanics have had a pretty dramatic effect on the characteristics of his pitches. Here’s what a few of Kirby’s key physical metrics look like for his four-seam fastball:

George Kirby, Fastball Characteristics
Year Velocity Arm Angle Vertical Release Angle Vertical IVB Vertical Approach Angle Vertical Dead Zone Delta Stuff+
2023 96.1 36.0° -1.9° 15.2 -4.5° +0.2 99
2024 96.0 37.1° -1.7° 15.8 -4.3° +0.3 103
2025 96.1 29.4° -1.2° 13.5 -4.2° -1.5 88

His heater lost some raw carry (IVB), but it gained a much flatter approach angle and now sits well outside the fastball “dead zone.” The results the pitch is generating haven’t changed all that much; Kirby is still garnering a whiff more than a quarter of the time, and the expected wOBA allowed off of his fastball is right around his career norms. But he’s throwing the pitch in the strike zone just 51.6% of the time, down from 53.2% last year and 58.0% in 2023.

Along with a flatter fastball, a lower arm angle has given Kirby’s entire arsenal a lot more horizontal movement. His slider is moving three inches more to his glove side and his curveball has an extra inch of break. His sinker and splitter both have a bunch more arm-side movement as well. That break has definitely benefitted his breaking balls, as both are running career-high whiff rates. Kirby has struggled to find a consistent breaking ball he can use to earn those swings-and-misses, and it finally looks like he’s got two of them.

Unfortunately, the new arm slot seems to have caused Kirby to ditch his splitter. He added that pitch in 2023 in an effort to find an offspeed offering to use against left-handed batters, and it’s been an important piece of his arsenal since then. He was throwing his split like normal in May when he first returned from his shoulder injury, but quickly ditched it after his second start in favor of a changeup. The new offspeed pitch is coming in a little harder than the splitter, with less drop and more arm-side break. Batters are having trouble putting the new changeup in play with any authority — it has a .155 expected wOBA — but its 11.1% whiff rate leaves a lot to be desired when compared to the near 30% whiff rate the splitter had.

It’s fair to wonder if all these changes to his mechanics and pitch shapes have caused Kirby’s usually pinpoint command to waver a bit as he gets used to his new norm. It’s also possible that he’s just been the victim of some really poor luck; his peripherals all look pretty solid, with his 3.56 FIP nearly a run lower than his 4.47 ERA. All his other ERA estimators — a 3.52 xFIP, a 3.69 SIERA, and a 4.10 xERA — point to some improvement to come as well.

Kirby isn’t the only starter on the Mariners whose mechanics have undergone a dramatic change this year: Gilbert has dropped his arm angle from a high, over-the-top delivery to a three-quarters arm slot. Mikey Ajeto detailed this change in a piece for Baseball Prospectus back in June, writing:

Gilbert’s fastball has gotten flatter, and his splitter steeper. Now his fastball is flatter than the average fastball, and his splitter is not only steeper than the average splitter, it’s getting forkball depth. Now he’s throwing strikes again with his fastball, and his splitter is one of the deadliest two-strike pitches in MLB.

Among all pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched, Gilbert leads the way in strikeout rate at 34.2%. And like Kirby, his ERA is half a run higher than his FIP, though his issue is a little easier to pinpoint. His 2.64 xFIP tells you almost everything you need to know: Gilbert is allowing far too many home runs despite all those swings and misses.

Interestingly, it’s not his fastball that’s the culprit. The flatter approach angle has helped him tone down the damage allowed off his heater. Instead, it’s Gilbert’s slider that’s causing some of these issues. The breaking ball is still generating plenty of whiffs, but when batters put the pitch in play, they’re crushing it. He’s allowed a .719 slug and a .445 expected wOBA with the breaker, which means that even though batters whiff against it more than a third of the time, it’s returned a negative run value this year.

Like the rest of his repertoire, the slider’s physical shape has changed with Gilbert’s lower arm slot. It’s a near perfect gyro slider, but this year, it has slightly less drop and a bit less horizontal break. We’re talking a half inch difference in both directions, but that could be enough to throw off Gilbert’s location with the pitch. Here’s a heat map of his slider locations this year:

Right down the heart of the plate isn’t the ideal location for a slider. If he’s throwing his breaking ball expecting it to drop an extra half inch, those locations could make a little more sense. He just hasn’t made the adjustment to his target yet and continues to leave those breaking balls in a very dangerous part of the zone.

As for Castillo, the issue is pretty easy to spot:

Castillo’s fastball velocity was right around 95 mph for most of the season, not too dramatically different from where it was last year and in 2023. But in August, his fastball was suddenly averaging 94 mph, and his ERA ballooned to 7.31 with the diminished velocity. Castillo’s heater has been his primary weapon since joining the Mariners, a pretty significant change from his time with the Reds, when his changeup was his best pitch. With Seattle, he has emphasized the hard stuff at the expense of the offspeed pitch, but that’s become a liability in these last seven starts with the lost velocity:

Luis Castillo, Fastball Batted Ball Metrics
Time Period Velocity wOBA xwOBA Hard Hit% Barrel%
Prior to July 28 95.2 0.323 0.375 51.7% 14.6%
After July 28 94.2 0.620 0.361 61.1% 16.7%

Batters were already hitting Castillo’s fastball pretty well earlier in the season, but he was mostly mitigating the damage. Since his July 28 start, however, his fastball has been getting crushed. He’s responded by throwing his sinker and slider a bit more often, but his sinker gets hit almost as hard as his four-seamer without the potential for swings and misses.

Castillo has been a durable and very effective starter for most of his career, but he’s suddenly facing a future with a diminished version of one of his best weapons. I’m not sure simply changing up his pitch mix to feature more sinkers is the answer either. I think he’s going to need to lean on his secondary pitches a lot more heavily to succeed; his slider is an excellent breaking ball and his changeup is largely unchanged from its peak with Cincinnati. I’m not sure if Castillo can make a switch to his approach in time to salvage the rest of this season, but I’m sure it will be one of the top priorities for the Mariners’ pitching lab this offseason.

For all their recent issues, the Mariners rotation still possesses a tremendous amount of talent. Both Kirby and Gilbert seem like they’ve been victims of some bad luck even as they try to navigate new pitching mechanics. Woo has continued to look fantastic despite running up against some workload concerns. Castillo and Miller have some big question marks going forward, and you’d think that one or both of them would be relegated to the bullpen in a potential playoff series. And for what it’s worth, our Depth Charts projections think the Mariners will have the third-best rotation in baseball for the remainder of the regular season. They’ll need all that talent to show up over these next few weeks as they fight for their spot in a tight AL playoff race.


The Red Sox Are Stretched Thin by the Loss of Roman Anthony

Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images

Roman Anthony has made quite an impact for the Red Sox this season. When the no. 2 prospect on our preseason Top 100 Prospects list was summoned to Boston in June, the Red Sox were 32-35, closer to last place in the AL East than first. Less than a week after he arrived, Boston traded away Rafael Devers, and since then Anthony has been nothing less than the team’s top hitter while helping it post the AL’s best record over that span. Alas, the 21-year-old phenom may not be able to help the Red Sox nail down a Wild Card spot, as an oblique strain will likely sideline him for at least the remainder of the regular season — and perhaps longer.

Anthony suffered the injury during the fourth inning of Tuesday’s game against the Guardians at Fenway Park. He felt something on his left side after a checked swing, then struck out swinging at the next pitch, after which he grabbed his lower left side while walking away from the plate.

Anthony didn’t return to the field for the top of the fifth inning; instead, he was replaced by Nate Eaton. An MRI taken on Wednesday morning revealed what the outfielder told reporters is a Grade 2 strain, an injury that typically takes four to six weeks to heal. Read the rest of this entry »


Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 9/5/25

12:01
Eric A Longenhagen: Hello from stormy Tempe, we’ll probably have a shorter chat today so I can batten down the hatches before this enormous cell hits the city.

12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: This week I wrote about the defense of more shortstops

12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Meg and I also wrote a job posting looking for a second full time prospect writer. FanGraphs Is Hiring! Seeking a Full-Time Prospect Writer | FanGraphs Baseball

12:04
Jeb: Konnor Griffin, whoof. AA doesn’t seem to be phasing him at all so far. As a pirate fan, can he actually work out and be great? What does his ceiling look like? What can we dream on?

12:04
Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, he’s quite good. I still think it’s a round down hit tool to some degree, but the power/speed combo is great. He’s a top 5 prospect.

Read the rest of this entry »


Please Help! My Devin Williams, He’s Not Well!

Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

On Wednesday, the Yankees went to Daikin Park for the middle game of an important three-game set against the Astros. The Yanks were 2 1/2 games behind the Blue Jays in the AL East with the two divisional foes scheduled for three games in the Bronx this weekend, so maybe this matchup with Houston wouldn’t have a direct impact on their place in the standings, but every win helps at this point in the season.

With the game tied 4-4 in the bottom of the eighth, manager Aaron Boone called on Devin Williams to hold the line. Williams, a two-time All-Star and the 2020 NL Rookie of the Year, came to New York this past offseason after posting an ERA under 2.00 in each of his last three seasons with Milwaukee. This season, his last before he hits free agency, has been… uneven, let’s say, and I’ll get to that.

Still, through all the ups and downs, Williams has remained one of Boone’s high-leverage guys. He’s a big-time reliever, and a tie game on the road against a major postseason rival is a big-time situation. So on Williams came. Read the rest of this entry »


Five Things I Liked (Or Didn’t Like) This Week, September 5

Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

Welcome to another edition of Five Things I Liked (Or Didn’t Like) This Week. You might think that this September is a poor one for baseball drama. The playoff spots in both leagues are fairly decided, give or take a bit of wobbliness from the perpetually star-crossed Mariners and Mets. Few division titles are in play – maybe the NL West or AL East, but neither feels all that likely to flip. But that’s okay, because even the teams that are probably out of it can be fun to watch, and even the teams that are already in it still have seeding to vie for. This week, I’ve turned my eye to a few teams with intriguing storylines in the month to come. I’m focusing my baseball viewing on playoff hopefuls, and there’s plenty to like. So with our customary nod to Zach Lowe of The Ringer, let’s talk baseball.

1. McLean (and Horton and Waldrep and…) Fever
One of my favorite baseball archetypes is the shooting star rookie ace. You know what I’m talking about if it’s happened to your team. Some rookie, often a heralded prospect, makes a mid-season debut and just has it. Their fastball? Unbeatable. Their breaking stuff? It just disappears! And that poise – it’s like they’ve been pitching in the majors for years, not weeks.

Whether you want to harken back to Fernando Valenzuela or rely on a more personally resonant example – 2013 Michael Wacha is my touchstone here – there’s just something special about these meteoric talents. At some point, they’re due for a downturn. How could they not be? It happens to everyone eventually. But until then, we might as well enjoy the ride. Read the rest of this entry »


Effectively Wild Episode 2370: Generation Yay?

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about broadcasters’ anxiety about saying “Cam Schlittler,” whether the Mets’ pitching-prospect trio of Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong, and Brandon Sproat will produce more WAR than “Generation K,” a protracted trot by Rafael Devers, whether Framber Valdez intentionally crossed up his catcher, how a lockout looming in late 2026 could affect the coming offseason, Mason Miller’s extra-special immaculate inning, and the team that’s surprisingly pitched the most shutouts, plus a postscript (with Mets-SP projections).

Audio intro: Josh Busman, “Effectively Wild Theme
Audio outro: Daniel Leckie, “Effectively Wild Theme

Link to Schlittler article
Link to Ruocco clip
Link to Generation K wiki
Link to Sproat call-up
Link to Devers trot article
Link to The Athletic on Framber
Link to agent’s comments
Link to Passan’s preview
Link to Langs on Miller
Link to Miller video
Link to team shutouts leaderboard
Link to team goose-egg leaderboard
Link to team pitching WAR
Link to team SP WAR
Link to Foley artist wiki
Link to latest HUAL episode

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RosterResource Chat – 9/4/25

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The Face You Make When Shohei Ohtani Hits a Homer 120 Miles per Hour

Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

On Tuesday night, Shohei Ohtani hit the second-hardest pull-side home run by a left-handed batter at PNC Park this season. If that doesn’t sound like it could make your head explode, well, that’s the point. I picked the most boring way to tell the story.

Anyone who saw this particular home run knows that a more accurate representation of the experience would be this: On Tuesday night, Shohei Ohtani hit the hardest ball of his entire career, turning around a 99-mph Bubba Chandler fastball on the inside corner and launching a 120-mph missile that skimmed over the Pittsburgh turf and triggered a series of small explosions as it crashed into the right field bleachers. It was the third-hardest-hit ball of the entire 2025 season, and the sixth-hardest home run in the 10-year history of the Statcast era. Read the rest of this entry »


Mechanics Amiss, Tanner Bibee Is Working To Rediscover His ‘Honey Hole’

Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

Tanner Bibee is having a down season. While he’s thrown a team-high 154 2/3 innings, the Cleveland Guardians right-hander has a 4.77 ERA and a 4.69 FIP, as well as a career-low 20.6% strikeout rate. Over the previous two seasons — his first two in the majors — he’d tossed 315 2/3 innings with a 3.25 ERA, a 3.54 FIP, and a 25.3% strikeout rate. Something has clearly been amiss.

Bibee believes that he knows what the issue has been; how to right himself during the season is the question at hand. With less than a month left on the schedule and the Guardians still holding out hope for October baseball — their playoff odds are a faint, but not impossible, 4.6% — Bibee can’t wait until the winter to get right. Much for that reason, he worked diligently in a bullpen session on Wednesday afternoon at Fenway Park, after which he expounded on his efforts to return to what he’s been at his best.

———

David Laurila: We talked a few days after you made your big league debut (in April 2023). How do you compare to the pitcher you were then?

Tanner Bibee: “Stuff-wise?”

Laurila: Stuff. How you approach the game. You’re two years older and presumably smarter now.

Bibee: “That doesn’t always mean better. It’s been an interesting first couple of years in the big leagues. I obviously had a lot of success in 2023. I had some success last year after a rough month or two. This year has definitely been… I’ve been through different movement patterns. In ’23, I came in with a really high slot, then kind of slowly got it back down.”

Laurila: Purposefully, or did that happen organically? Read the rest of this entry »