You can’t win if you don’t score. The Brewers, who scored exactly one run in each game of their doomed NLCS campaign, learned that the hard way. The Phillies scored eight runs in their single NLDS victory — five of those coming as tack-on runs against mopup relievers — and a total of seven in their three losses.

The Dodgers have a 2.45 ERA this postseason. Among 21st century World Series contestants, that’s tied for the third-best mark with the 2012 Tigers, who had three World Series winners in their rotation. The only pennant winners to allow fewer runs per game were the 2001 Diamondbacks (who had a rather famous 1-2 punch at the top of their rotation) and the 2022 Astros, who threw a combined no-hitter in the World Series. Read the rest of this entry »

This October, the biggest-spending, best-run franchises in baseball have been flexing their muscles. Case in point: The team with the largest TV audience in the game, one with a monopoly on an entire country’s fandom and a huge payroll to match, a team that takes over opposing stadiums on “road trips” — that team is headlining the World Series. There, on the biggest stage in the sport, they’ll take on the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Oh, you thought the Toronto Blue Jays were David facing the Dodgers’ Goliath? Get out of here. The Jays are a Goliath, too. They have a top five payroll, just like the Dodgers. Of the nine hitters, four starters, and three relievers I expect to play the biggest roles for Toronto this series, just four are homegrown. They’ve filled in the gaps with canny additions in free agency and made excellent trades to bolster their roster even further. Their ace and their leadoff hitter were both high-profile free agents. They have literally Max Scherzer, the embodiment of a well-paid veteran.

That’s not to say that Los Angeles is punching up here. The Dodgers’ best players need little introduction. Shohei Ohtani. Mookie Betts. Freddie Freeman. Blake Snell. I could keep writing one-name sentences for quite a while before I ran out of stars to highlight. Sure, all of Canada roots for the Jays, but all of Japan roots for the Dodgers, and Japan is three times as big by population. California is the size of Canada, for that matter, and there are a few Dodgers fans there, too. In fact, the Dodgers are an even bigger Goliath than the Jays, but that doesn’t make Toronto any less of a big-market club. Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

I am not a Mariners fan. I have never been a Mariners fan. I have no intention of becoming a Mariners fan. But the first major league game I ever attended was, in fact, a Mariners game. Here’s what I remember from that game: It took place on July 30, 1998 in the Kingdome. It lasted 17 innings and stretched into the following day. We were sitting on metal bleachers, pretty high up. I knew that some of the big names on the Mariners that year were Ken Griffey Jr., Alex Rodriguez, Randy Johnson and Jay Buhner. I spent most, if not all, of the game reading a book because I absolutely did not care about baseball. That’s it. I know that isn’t much, so here’s some photo proof that I was actually there:

I’m the nine-year-old girl on the left and the only one not wearing Mariners gear. Again, I have never been a Mariners fan. The kid next to me is Roger, my 13-year-old brother (yes, that oversized manchild was really only 13, I triple-checked the math). He was the reason we were at the game and the reason I could name a whopping four Mariners. Read the rest of this entry »

Here in Arizona we are now through two weeks of play in the Fall League, with some schedule alterations (a few days of cancellation and a doubleheader makeup effort Tuesday) caused by the impact of tropical moisture coming up through Mexico’s Pacific Coast. Though roughly 60% of the slate remains, there are already some individual players who have moved the scouting needle either for me, or for the many folks here braving Bell Road and walk-prone pitching to sharpen their club’s understanding of these guys. I’ve pushed a bunch of updates to the 2025 Fall League tab on The Board, and below have a Map Key so you can quickly parse the basics of those updates, as well some scouting notes on the players whose grade or projection has changed.

Trend Column Map Key
You’ll notice the “Trend” column on The Board. There are several (mostly self-explanatory) symbols there to give you an idea as to the way a player has looked. The “Up” arrow indicates someone has played well enough, or looks different enough, for me to have upped their FV grade from prior reporting. It’s possible the upward trend will continue throughout the Fall and that the player’s grade increases yet again during offseason org list work. In the cases where the player is struggling so badly as to have earned a “Down” arrow, I haven’t nerfed their FV grade at this time because, historically, there are lots of great players who struggled in the AFL because of fatigue, indifference, or some other reason independent of their talent.

The target “🎯” signifies either players whom I haven’t seen yet, or players who might be Up arrow guys if they reinforce a good early look with more of the same. At a certain point (like a weekish from now) the games I decide to attend on a given day will be dictated entirely by who is left on my target list. The “New” tag indicates players who weren’t on The Board previously, and the Band-Aid “🩹” designation indicates either players whom I haven’t seen, or those who aren’t playing due to injury. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s alright. I’ve run the numbers, and you’re not imagining it. People really are bunting more during the playoffs. You really have been screaming “WHY ON EARTH WOULD YOU EVEN THINK ABOUT DROPPING DOWN A BUNT RIGHT NOW?” at your television more often than usual. Your neighbors have noticed. The homeowners association is going to get involved. This is an intervention.

But you’re not wrong. So far, 1.1% of all postseason plate appearances have ended with a bunt. That’s 0.4 percentage points above the regular season mark of 0.7%, an increase of 57%. It’s also the highest postseason bunt rate since 2017. Not only are we seeing more bunts than we did in the regular season, we’re seeing more postseason bunts than we have in years! That 0.4-point gap is the highest we’ve seen since at least 2008.

Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, I published the first half of my votes for this year’s Fielding Bible awards, which will be released at 2 PM ET today. This morning, I’m going to cover my ballots for the three outfield positions, as well as the pitchers, multi-positional defenders, defensive player of the year, and defensive team of the year. Update: the awards have been handed out. Winners are denoted below by an asterisk.

If you’re curious about the methodology I used to help guide my voting, you can read about it in yesterday’s article, but here’s a bite-sized refresher: I used a weighted blend of DRS, FRV, and DRP (the three flagship public defensive metrics), with the weights based on how well each metric did on reliability and consistency. I created different weights for catcher, first base, the non-first-base infield positions, and the outfield. That gave me an initial rough order. From there, I used my own expertise, both in terms of deeper statistical dives on individual players and the copious amounts of baseball I watched this year, to assemble my final rankings. I deferred to advanced defensive metrics when the gaps were big, but for close calls, I leaned heavily on my own judgment.

That’s the kind of explanation that I have to put in front of any article outlining my ballot; if you don’t know what I’m looking for, my votes wouldn’t make as much sense. With that out of the way, we can get to the good stuff: the actual players who played the defense I’m writing about. So let’s get right to my last seven ballots — it’s a voluminous set of awards! Read the rest of this entry »

Meg Rowley and guest co-host Ben Clemens of FanGraphs discuss the conclusion of the ALCS, including Dan Wilson’s decision to the turn to Eduard Bazardo to face George Springer with runners on in the seventh rather than bring in a higher-leverage reliever like Andrés Muñoz. Then they preview the upcoming World Series between the Blue Jays and the Dodgers, highlighting a few matchups they think might prove to be important in determining the winner.

Audio intro: Justin Peters, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: El Warren, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to sign up for Patreon

Link to Ben on the first part of his Fielding Bible Awards ballot
Link to Eric Longenhagen on Game 7 of the ALCS
Link to Ben on intentionally walking Cal Raleigh
Link to Joe Posnanski on the Bazardo decision
Link to Davy Andrews on the three jumps of Game 7

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At last, we’ve got a World Series matchup to wrap our heads around. Representing the American League are the Blue Jays, who are back in the Fall Classic — making it a truly international World Series — for the first time since 1993. They’ll face the Dodgers, who are vying to become the first back-to-back champions since the 1999–2000 Yankees. They’re the first defending champions to repeat as pennant winners since the 2009 Phillies, who lost that World Series to the Yankees. If that matchup feels like a long time ago, consider that it’s been twice as long since the Blue Jays were here.

Though the core of the lineup is largely unchanged, this year’s Dodgers team differs from last year’s in that it has reached the World Series on the strength of its starting pitching rather than in spite of it. Due to a slew of injuries in the rotation last year, manager Dave Roberts resorted to using bullpen games four times to augment a rickety three-man staff consisting of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jack Flaherty, and Walker Buehler. Even as those starters (or “starters,” in some cases) put up a 5.25 ERA while averaging just 3.75 innings per turn, the bullpen and offense more than picked up the slack, and the Dodgers took home their second championship of the Roberts era.

This time around, with Flaherty and Buehler elsewhere and Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, and Shohei Ohtani joining Yamamoto, Dodgers starters have been absolutely dominant, posting a microscopic 1.40 ERA while averaging 6.43 innings per turn through the first three rounds, helping the team to paper over a shaky bullpen. After Snell utterly dominated the Brewers, holding them to just one hit over eight innings while facing the minimum number of batters in Game 1 of the NLCS, Yamamoto followed with a three-hit, one-run masterpiece — the first complete game in the postseason since the Astros’ Justin Verlander went the distance against the Yankees in Game 2 of the 2017 ALCS. Glasnow, who began the postseason in the bullpen, allowed one run across 5 2/3 innings in Game 3 of the NLCS, while Ohtani backed his 10 strikeouts over six shutout innings in Game 4 with a three-homer game in what for my money stands as the greatest single-game postseason performance in baseball history. Read the rest of this entry »