Wild World Series Tactics: 1995-1997
Starting yesterday, I began a hunt through old World Series games for strange tactical decisions. Things were weird in the early ‘90s — MVP candidates bunting, intentional walks so thick they blocked out the sun, and raft-loads of pitchers overstaying their welcome. How did things go in the next half-decade? Better. But not that much better — the event that inspired this project, Byung-Hyun Kim throwing 61 pitches and then pitching the next day, wasn’t until 2001. We’ve still got plenty of weirdness going on. With 1994 lost to the strike, we’ll jump back in in 1995.
1995
The Braves were back with a retooled roster — Chipper Jones, Fred McGriff, Ryan Klesko, and Javy Lopez headlined the new crop of hitters. Marquis Grissom manned center, put up a .317 OBP, and — you guessed it — led off. Mark Lemke (79 wRC+) batted second, and just… come on, Bobby Cox, stop messing with my mind.
Ryan Klesko hit .310/.396/.608 and batted sixth — sure wouldn’t hate getting him a few more at-bats. Even Charlie O’Brien, Greg Maddux’s personal catcher, was better with the stick this year than Grissom and Lemke — he hit seventh. Cleveland was just as bad — they had Omar Vizquel hit second while Manny Ramirez, in a season where he hit .308/.402/.558, languished in seventh. In fact, Vizquel was the worst regular hitter on the Indians, period.
Game 1 was a buttoned-up affair — there aren’t a lot of tactics to talk about when Greg Maddux throws a complete game in 95 pitches. The only real points of interest were two Cox pinch hitting decisions — he pulled Klesko for journeyman Mike Devereaux, then pulled O’Brien for light-hitting Luis Polonia. Both over-valued platoon edges relative to talent levels. The pinch hitting penalty wasn’t commonly known then, which doesn’t help. Read the rest of this entry »
Orioles Prospect Zac Lowther Is Adding Polish to His Vexing Funk
Zac Lowther was described as having “vexing funk” when he was profiled here in August 2018. That hasn’t changed. The 23-year-old southpaw — now No. 12 on our Orioles Top Prospects list — still disrupts timing with his delivery. Moreover, he continues to flummox hitters. In 148 innings last year at Double-A Bowie, Lowther logged a 2.55 ERA, fanned 154, and allowed just eight gophers.
Prior to last season, Eric Longenhagen described how Lowther “hides his arm behind his body… and has nearly seven feet of down-mound extension.” Last week, the 6-foot-2, 235 pound lefty shared that his recent developmental strides have been more mental than physical in nature.
“A lot of it is working on consistency and how I approach everything,” Lowther told me. “I’m not throwing 96 [mph] — I’m that funky guy who kind of goes against the scouting reports — so I have to place to ball and rely on all three pitches. I need to stay within myself; I need to be in the present, but also know how that pitch takes me to the next pitch.”
Lowther’s repertoire consists of a fastball, a curveball, and a changeup. The first of the three is his best weapon, despite its pedestrian (88-93) velocity. And more than deception is at play. The erstwhile Xavier Musketeer gets good carry, and as Longenhagen pointed out, sometimes sinking and tailing action. Read the rest of this entry »
Let’s Update the Estimated Local TV Revenue for MLB Teams
In the four years since I last attempted to determine major league teams’ local television revenue, much has changed in the Regional Sports Network landscape. Four years ago, FOX was the dominant player, owning a majority of the channels, with NBC and AT&T having their own shares as well. Last year, Sinclair completed the purchase of FOX’s RSNs, bought into the Yankees’ YES Network, and partnered with the Cubs to help create them their own network. That big FOX RSN purchase came at a price half that of the initial estimates; Sinclair also attempted to purchase the AT&T RSNs up for auction before AT&T determined the potential selling price was too low.
In addition to the network ownership changes, seven of the 30 teams’ contracts have been up for renewal, with substantial changes to what we previously knew about the broadcast situations of the Braves, Nationals, and Rockies. As was the case four years ago, these numbers are estimates and do not include money from ownership stakes in networks. For the former, I’ll go into a little more detail where I had to speculate the most. For the latter, I’ll illustrate how an ownership share can be incredibly important. For all long-term deals, I assumed a 4% annual increase across the length of the contract. And while much is uncertain regarding this season and its duration, the estimates here are for a full, standard season (2019), both for ease of comparison and their utility in the future.
Top 52 Prospects: Texas Rangers
Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Texas Rangers. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed, you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.
All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It can be found here.
Rk | Name | Age | Highest Level | Position | ETA | FV |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Yerry Rodriguez | 22.4 | A | RHP | 2021 | 50 |
2 | Nick Solak | 25.2 | MLB | 2B | 2020 | 50 |
3 | Heriberto Hernandez | 20.3 | A- | LF | 2023 | 50 |
4 | Josh Jung | 22.1 | A | 3B | 2022 | 45+ |
5 | Anderson Tejeda | 21.9 | A+ | SS | 2021 | 45+ |
6 | Leody Taveras | 21.5 | AA | CF | 2021 | 45+ |
7 | Cole Winn | 20.3 | A | RHP | 2023 | 45+ |
8 | Joseph Palumbo | 25.4 | MLB | LHP | 2020 | 45 |
9 | Sherten Apostel | 21.0 | A+ | 3B | 2021 | 45 |
10 | Hans Crouse | 21.5 | A | RHP | 2022 | 45 |
11 | Sam Huff | 22.3 | A+ | C | 2021 | 45 |
12 | Maximo Acosta | 17.5 | R | SS | 2025 | 40+ |
13 | Bayron Lora | 17.5 | R | LF | 2025 | 40+ |
14 | Ronny Henriquez | 19.8 | A | RHP | 2023 | 40+ |
15 | Jonathan Ornelas | 19.9 | A | SS | 2023 | 40+ |
16 | Osleivis Basabe | 19.6 | A- | SS | 2023 | 40+ |
17 | Keithron Moss | 18.7 | R | CF | 2023 | 40+ |
18 | Davis Wendzel | 22.9 | A- | 3B | 2023 | 40+ |
19 | Demarcus Evans | 23.5 | AA | RHP | 2020 | 40+ |
20 | Steele Walker | 23.7 | A+ | CF | 2022 | 40+ |
21 | Tyler Phillips | 22.5 | AA | RHP | 2021 | 40+ |
22 | Owen White | 20.7 | R | RHP | 2023 | 40+ |
23 | A.J. Alexy | 22.0 | A+ | RHP | 2021 | 40+ |
24 | Ricky Vanasco | 21.5 | A | RHP | 2022 | 40+ |
25 | Jonathan Hernandez | 23.8 | MLB | RHP | 2020 | 40 |
26 | David Garcia | 20.2 | A- | C | 2022 | 40 |
27 | Kyle Cody | 25.7 | A+ | RHP | 2020 | 40 |
28 | Yonny Hernandez | 21.9 | AA | SS | 2021 | 40 |
29 | Justin Slaten | 22.6 | A- | RHP | 2023 | 40 |
30 | Luisangel Acuña | 18.1 | R | SS | 2024 | 40 |
31 | Ryan Garcia | 22.2 | A- | RHP | 2023 | 40 |
32 | Randy Florentino | 19.8 | A- | C | 2023 | 40 |
33 | Bubba Thompson | 21.8 | A+ | CF | 2022 | 40 |
34 | Pedro Gonzalez | 22.5 | A | CF | 2022 | 40 |
35 | Taylor Hearn | 25.6 | MLB | LHP | 2020 | 40 |
36 | Cole Uvila | 26.2 | A+ | RHP | 2022 | 40 |
37 | Eli White | 25.8 | AAA | 2B | 2020 | 40 |
38 | Jimmy Herget | 26.6 | MLB | RHP | 2020 | 40 |
39 | Kelvin Gonzalez | 22.3 | A | RHP | 2021 | 40 |
40 | Alex Speas | 22.1 | A | RHP | 2022 | 40 |
41 | Diosbel Arias | 23.7 | A+ | SS | 2021 | 40 |
42 | Zion Bannister | 18.6 | R | CF | 2024 | 35+ |
43 | Brock Burke | 23.7 | MLB | LHP | 2021 | 35+ |
44 | Chris Seise | 21.3 | A | SS | 2022 | 35+ |
45 | Cole Ragans | 22.3 | A- | LHP | 2021 | 35+ |
46 | Yohel Pozo | 22.8 | A+ | C | 2021 | 35+ |
47 | Alexander Ovalles | 19.5 | A- | 1B | 2024 | 35+ |
48 | Joe Barlow | 24.6 | AAA | RHP | 2020 | 35+ |
49 | Frainyer Chavez | 20.9 | A | SS | 2022 | 35+ |
50 | Yohander Mendez | 25.2 | MLB | LHP | 2020 | 35+ |
51 | Hever Bueno | 25.4 | A | RHP | 2021 | 35+ |
52 | Cody Bradford | 22.1 | R | LHP | 2023 | 35+ |
Other Prospects of Note
Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.
First Base-Only Bashers
Tyreque Reed, 1B
Curtis Terry, 1B
Andretty Cordero, 1B
Blaine Crim, 1B
This one is self-explanatory. All of these guys have power and have performed fairly well throughout their pro careers to this point, but they have very high offensive bars to clear at first base. There are enough of these types in the system that one or two might be pre-arb band-aids.
Older Relief Types
John King, LHP
Nick Snyder, RHP
Jake Latz, RHP
Reid Anderson, RHP
Jacob Lemoine, RHP
Scott Engler, RHP
King has a plus changeup and sits 90-94 from the left side. He’s had a TJ. Snyder has the best arm action in the org and sits 93-96 but I didn’t see a consistent secondary offering in the fall and consider him a one-pitch guy; Anderson and Lemoine, too. Engler has also had a TJ and sits 93-94 with plus spin and a good axis. Latz was missing bats with his fastball even though it only sits 88-92, then his elbow started hurting and he was shut down.
Younger Sleepers
Destin Dotson, LHP
Mason Englert, RHP
Kelvin Bautista, LHP
Dotson is a physical beast with a vertical arm slot whose velocity fluctuated a lot last year, peaking at 95 but sitting 86-90. Englert was an early draft pick who hasn’t thrown since TJ. He had relief projection before getting hurt. Bautista is a 20-year-old lefty up to 95.
Catchers
Matt Whatley, C
Melvin Novoa, C
Josh Morgan, C
Whatley is a great defender with some pull power and a high-risk hit tool. Novoa has good feel for contact but is in the 40/45 range for everything else. Morgan’s bat speed looked gone to me in recent looks, though his defensive versatility remains interesting.
Role-Playing Hitters
Julio Pablo Martinez, CF
Miguel Aparicio, CF
Cody Freeman, 2B
Derwin Barreto, UTIL
Keyber Rodriguez, SS
Most of these are contact-oriented hitters. JPM has performed okay while being quite old for his level. He and Aparicio, whose swing became wilder last season, have bench outfield ceilings. Freeman got $900,000 in last year’s draft and he does have advanced contact, but I just don’t see big league twitch. Barreto and Rodriguez are athletic 25th/26th man sorts.
System Overview
Same as last year, this system has lots of high variance players who you can line up in lots of different ways depending on what you value and whose red flags you’re inclined to either ignore or argue around. While you can order these guys in several justifiable ways, there’s general agreement that the top half of the system is tightly packed, full of players just outside the overall 100 because of a scary trait or two, or because they have likely bullpen projection. It’s a deep system full of exciting, big-bodied athletes.
But the last two years have been unkind to its health. The number of injuries, many of which have required surgery, has been a nightmare and caused all kinds of questions about the development and medical staff. A full-body rash of injuries like this is so bizarre that it almost certainly just involves sheer bad luck, though the counterargument is that it’s so widespread that some of it has to be signal.
Effectively Wild Episode 1528: The Talented Mr. Henry
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller banter about the strange story of a man named Bill Henry who impersonated former major league reliever Bill Henry for decades, then answer listener emails about seasons with an ERA+ or OPS+ of 420, teams from the past that they would most want to cover as time-traveling beat writers, and the difference between being fans of teams and being fans of particular players, plus two Stat Blasts about all-time head-to-head franchise records and how good a starting rotation would have to be to make up for a replacement-level rest of the roster.
Audio intro: First Aid Kit, "Master Pretender"
Audio outro: Roy Orbison, "The Great Pretender"
Link to AP story about the Bill Henrys
Link to impostor’s obituary
Link to local story about the Bill Henrys
Link to story about exposing the fake Bill
Link to SI story about the Bill Henrys
Link to Bill Henry’s SABR bio
Link to de Kooning theft story
Link to false memory story
Link to Stat Blast song covers thread
Link to Tess Taruskin’s cover video
Link to order The Only Rule Is It Has to Work
Link to order The MVP Machine
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In Downtown Brooklyn, a Curveball on Jackie Robinson Day
Today, April 15, is Jackie Robinson Day, though with MLB’s season postponed by the COVID-19 pandemic, the celebration has taken on a different form. So has my observation, albeit not quite by choice.
As a writer who grew up a third-generation Dodgers fan and who has lived in Brooklyn for the past 12 1/2 years, I’ve generally greeted the day as an opportunity not just to acknowledge Robinson’s bravery and the pivotal moment of integration but to further our understanding of the man and the context that surrounded his career. That effort now extends to my own 3 1/2-year-old daughter, Robin (her name is not a coincidence). She already owns a Robinson shirsey (her second one, actually) and both my wife — Emma Span, managing editor of The Athletic’s MLB vertical — and I have made efforts to tell her a version of his story that she can understand.
In late February, we visited Robin’s preschool and gave a presentation on the basics of baseball as part of a “Family Traditions” series during which we touched upon Robinson. As it turned out, learning about him dovetailed with the class’s recent learning about Dr. Martin Luther King, Rosa Parks, and other civil rights heroes, and as a result, a picture of Robinson was soon posted to the wall alongside them. Read the rest of this entry »
Wild World Series Tactics: 1990-1993
Last week, I learned an astonishing fact while listening to Effectively Wild. In the 2001 World Series, Byung-Hyun Kim blew a save while throwing 61 pitches. The next day, Bob Brenly sent Kim right back out there, and he blew another save. I knew the back-to-back blown saves part, but 61 pitches! Imagine the uproar if that had happened last year.
This got me wondering: just how weird were baseball tactics 20 or 30 years ago? What else were teams doing that would shock a modern audience? While we wait for real baseball, I decided to find out. Starting with the 1990 World Series, I’m going to hunt for tactical decisions that would look out of place today, and see just how different baseball is.
1990
Tony LaRussa is the father of modern bullpen management, but he also had a new-looking batting order; his best four hitters in Game 1 by wRC+ batted 1-4. Lou Piniella, meanwhile, batted 92 wRC+ Billy Hatcher in the two spot. Chris Sabo, a career 110 wRC+ hitter who posted a 121 wRC+ in 1990, languished in sixth. That’s nothing too wild for the time — the second spot in the lineup was long given to “bat control” guys — but it looks antiquated next to the A’s lineup.
The first game wouldn’t look out of place in 2020. LaRussa pinch hit for ace Dave Stewart after only four innings, looking to spark a rally in a game the A’s trailed 4-0. Piniella and the Reds used only three pitchers, because ace Jose Rijo went seven strong innings, and even up 7-0, they used their top two relievers to get the last six outs. Boring! Read the rest of this entry »
COVID-19 Roundup: MLB Participates in Coronavirus Study
This is the latest installment of a regular series in which the FanGraphs staff rounds up the latest developments regarding the COVID-19 virus’ effect on baseball.
MLB players, team employees comprise enormous COVID-19 study population
Players and other employees from 27 of the 30 teams have elected to take part in the first and largest study of COVID-19’s spread in the United States, according to stories by ESPN and The Athletic. The study has no intention of assisting a return to baseball in 2020.
According to reports, as many as 10,000 people have volunteered for the study, in which participants use at-home test kits to find out if they have COVID-19 antibodies in their blood. Within 10 minutes, a person will know whether or not they have contracted COVID-19 at some point in the past, and will then send a photograph of their results to a team health specialist, along with a survey asking a range of questions about the participant’s age, gender, and race, as well as where they’re from, what their social distancing practices are, and whether they’ve knowingly been in contact with anyone infected by COVID-19. The finger-prick test is not the same as those being used by health care providers on the front lines, as it is not intended to identify active infections. All volunteers will be anonymous, and MLB says it will not identify the three teams that chose not to take part.
Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, a professor of medicine at Stanford University who will be examining the results of the study and writing a paper on his findings, says that MLB’s participation will be “unbelievable for public health policy.” Once the results are compiled, medical professionals should have a much better idea of the true infection and death rates across the country, and better understand how the virus spreads, all of which will be crucial to knowing how and when it will be safe to re-open the country. Read the rest of this entry »
Projecting the Cactus/Grapefruit League Standings, Part 2: Let’s Divisionate!
On Monday, we projected what the Cactus/Grapefruit standings could look like given baseball’s radical proposal to base the 2020 season in team’s Arizona and Florida spring training complexes.
In my first piece, I went with division-less leagues, since I am the ZiPS Dictator — faber est suae quisque fortunae. With travel distances relatively limited compared to a normal season and many of the traditional divisional rivalries gone topsy-turvy, I felt there wasn’t any real need to have divisions. No divisions doesn’t mean that fewer teams make the playoffs, after all.
But being the ZiPS Dictator doesn’t make one the MLB Dictator, and there’s a very good chance that any Arizona/Florida league will have makeshift divisions. First, let’s re-project our temporary leagues using the divisions that Bob Nightengale laid out in his piece initially reporting the paln. For the number of games, I’m going with the proposed 108, consisting of 12 games against each team’s division rivals and six games against each of the non-division teams. We’ll start with the Florida teams:
Team | W | L | GB | PCT | Div% | WC% | Playoff% | WS Win% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New York Yankees | 67 | 41 | — | .620 | 88.9% | 5.3% | 94.2% | 15.6% |
Philadelphia Phillies | 56 | 52 | 11 | .519 | 9.7% | 21.3% | 31.1% | 2.4% |
Toronto Blue Jays | 48 | 60 | 19 | .444 | 0.8% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 0.2% |
Pittsburgh Pirates | 48 | 60 | 19 | .444 | 0.5% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 0.1% |
Detroit Tigers | 41 | 67 | 26 | .380 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |