Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from the kitchen island in Tempe, I’m happy to be home and chatting from my usual spot for the first time in a month. The Nats list ran today, so go check that out. Brendan published Royals Wednesday, enjoy that, too.
12:02
NFP: Victor Figueroa real or no real?
12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Watched a bunch of him this week while tying loose ends on Nats and his swing does look different.
12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: More viable, actually accessing the power. Let’s see if the spray changed…
12:04
Eric A Longenhagen: Looks pretty similar. Contact rate actually down compared to last year, but it’s early… Needs more info.
12:04
Pirates: Talk me off the ledge regarding Konnor Griffin. Is this still adjusting? Right now nothings working for him
The Philadelphia Phillies have released right-handed pitcher Taijuan Walker, and it’s not hard to understand why. The Phillies, two-time defending NL East champs and one of the preseason favorites for the National League pennant, are down two engines and spiraling rapidly toward an uncontrolled crash landing. They need to dump everything that’s not bolted down, and unfortunately for Walker, that’s him.
The 33-year-old right-hander took the loss in two of the Phillies’ eight consecutive defeats, and if his 9.13 ERA is due to regress with better sequencing and luck, it wasn’t going to regress by much. Walker’s xERA is 7.04 and his FIP is 7.82. In 22 2/3 innings, he has struck out 17 batters while allowing 36 hits (including eight home runs) and 11 walks.
Eli Willits Photo: Sarah Phipps/The Oklahoman/USA Today Network via Imagn Images
Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Washington Nationals. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. This is the sixth year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but we use that as a rule of thumb.
A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.
All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »
Last week, we released a baseball simulator in the FanGraphs Lab. This week, we’re adding home field advantage to the simulator. You can toggle HFA on and off using a new menu option:
The chosen home field advantage will then be applied to whatever simulation you run. But how do we calculate home field advantage in this simulated environment? Let’s go over it. Read the rest of this entry »
Led by American League Cy Young runner-up Garrett Crochet, free agent signee Ranger Suarez, and trade acquisition Sonny Gray, the Red Sox were projected to have the majors’ top rotation in our preseason Positional Power Rankings. Four weeks in, the unit has been one of the majors’ worst, with Crochet getting pummeled and Gray underperforming before landing on the injured list earlier this week with a right hamstring strain. The bullpen has been shaky, the offense weak, and after losing the first two games of a three-game series against the Yankees at Fenway Park, the Red Sox now sit 9-15, last in the AL East.
Through 24 games, this is the Red Sox’s worst start since 2020, when they went 6-18 en route to a 24-36 record and a last-place finish. In terms of full-season futility, in 2019 the Red Sox — defending champions at the time — started 9-15 before rallying to finish at 84-78, third in the division but outside the playoff picture. After winning 89 games last season and making their first postseason appearance since 2021, this year was supposed to be different, but since Opening Day, the team’s seasonal win projection has fallen from 85 to 80.5, the fourth-largest drop in the majors ahead of only the Mets (-7.1), Phillies (-5.7) and Royals (-4.5). Only those three teams have larger drops in their Playoff Odds:
Red Sox Change in Playoff Odds
Date
W
L
W%
GB
Win Div
Clinch Bye
Clinch WC
Make Playoffs
Win WS
March 25
0
0
—
0
22.5%
19.2%
38.2%
60.8%
4.9%
April 22
9
15
.375
6
6.5%
5.2%
28.7%
35.3%
2.4%
Change
-16.0%
-14.0%
-9.5%
-25.5%
-2.5%
The driver of Boston’s success was supposed to be the rotation, headed by Crochet. After making his first All-Star team with the White Sox in 2024, he emerged as a true ace last year, leading the majors in both innings (205.1) and strikeouts (255) while ranking second in the AL in strikeout rate (31.3%), xERA (2.88), FIP (2.89), and WAR (5.8) — behind Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal in all of those categories — and third in ERA (2.59). Read the rest of this entry »
When the Cubs signed Nico Hoerner to a six-year contract extension on Opening Day, they knew exactly what they were getting. You see, Hoerner has been remarkably consistent throughout his career; over his four full seasons in the majors, his wRC+ has had a peak of 109 and a low of 102, to go along with sterling defensive metrics. His seasonal WAR marks during that four-year span have ranged from 3.8 to 4.8. The only reason why this isn’t a five-season sample is because, in 2021, three separate IL stints curtailed his campaign to just 44 games. In those 44 games, though, he put up a 106 wRC+ and 1.6 WAR.
However, the Nico Hoerner that has showed up to play this year isn’t the same as before. He’s still playing excellent defense at an up-the-middle position, but he’s also rocking a .320/.393/.515 slash line (a 156 wRC+) with four home runs, meaning that in just 24 games, he’s already nearly halfway to his career high of 10, set back in 2022. Last week, he racked up nine hits, two home runs, and two stolen bases to earn NL Player of the Week honors. It’s still early in the season, but there are enough underlying changes in Hoerner’s performance that it’s worth digging into how he’s been able to power up this year. Read the rest of this entry »
Dan Szymborski: Here! Sorry, I had a weird problem getting int
12:15
thelwynn: The Mets are back, how long until they are in first place?
12:15
Dan Szymborski: It’s hard to say. The Mets will get to first place if there’s sufficient time remaining in the season for another tragic downfall
12:15
Farhandrew Zaidman: Evergreen question – is Shohei a better hitter or pitcher?
12:15
Dan Szymborski: Probably still hitter
12:15
Judge, speed demon: It’s pretty funny Judge’s “slow” start is 9 HR and a 163 OPS+ with 5 steals. With Ohtani and Soto probably taking it easy because of pitching and injury, maybe he’s the next huge slugger with surprising SB totals (he usually does steal 10-15 a year)
In pitching, there’s a fundamental tension between the two best results you can obtain: strikeouts and grounders. Strikeouts are obviously the best, but grounders are incredible too. Batters put up a .232 wOBA when they hit the ball on the ground, as compared to .462 in the air (popups are another category of good batted ball, but I’m lumping them in with aerial contact today for simplicity’s sake). The thing is, the pitches that induce strikeouts tend not to induce grounders, and vice versa. Sinkers don’t miss bats, and four-seamers don’t keep the ball on the ground. It’s quite the bind.
There are, of course, pitchers who can do both. Nolan McLeanspringsto mind. There’s peak Zack Britton, Framber Valdez at his curve-spinning best, some good Cristopher Sánchez games perhaps. For the most part, though, it’s really hard to do both. I came up with a simple rule to measure how good pitchers were at it last year: divide grounders by two, add strikeouts, subtract walks, and divide by total batters faced. Aroldis Chapman, Jhoan Duran, and Andrew Kittredge paced the league in it last year, with Shohei Ohtani and Mason Miller rounding out the top five. Those guys were all incredibly effective.
It’s early in the season, of course, but do you know who’s leading baseball in this ratio in 2026? Well, it’s Mason Miller. Oops. I guess breakingbaseball will do that. If you’re striking out 70% of the guys you face, of course you’ll lead this measure. But the only other player above 50%? That’d be Riley O’Brien, the new Cardinals closer, who has been one of the best stories in baseball so far this year. Read the rest of this entry »
I’m sure you know the joke about the two hikers, the bear, and the running shoes. A bear is chasing two men through the woods; one stops to put on his running shoes. “You fool!” his friend says. “Even in those shoes you’ll never outrun the bear!”
“I don’t need to outrun the bear,” says the man. “I just need to outrun you.”
It’s an old joke, and I tell it a lot because I find it to have the probative value of an actual Biblical parable. You don’t need to be great; just be better than the other guy. For the past week, the Phillies have been mired in a losing streak that would’ve gotten national attention had the bear not been devoting its attention to eating the Mets. But on Wednesday, the Mets finally snapped their 12-game skid and the Phillies dropped their eighth game on the bounce. Now the two rivals both sit at 8-16, the worst record in the National League. Read the rest of this entry »
Dan Szymborski
