Archive for Royals

Michael Wacha’s Home Run Suppression Field Failed

Peter Aiken-Imagn Images

The fences moved in, and Michael Wacha felt the pinch. The right-hander allowed exactly twice as many home runs in 2026 as he did in the prior year, and the obvious place to look is the ballpark. Kansas City pulled the Kauffman Stadium fences in by enough to turn it from one of the toughest places to leave the yard into a roughly average home run environment. Or at least, that’s where I started when I set out to analyze Wacha’s 30 homers allowed, the third-highest mark in baseball and a career worst for the veteran pitcher.

I kept an eye on Wacha’s home run issue for two reasons. First, I was curious about how the new fences would play, and as a fly ball pitcher without strikeout stuff, Wacha was a great barometer. Second, I’ve done a lot of work on which pitches are most likely to get hit for home runs in the past few seasons, and Wacha generally finished high on those lists. But despite showing the characteristics of a pitcher who should get hit hard, he basically didn’t. Over 2024 and 2025 combined, no pitcher in baseball had a larger divergence between his expected home runs allowed, as calculated by PitchingBot, and his actual home runs allowed. Wacha’s pitches racked up 50.6 expected HR allowed during that span, according to my formulation of PitchingBot data; he allowed only 32, a gap of 18 homers. No one else had a gap of 15 or higher.

Through the end of June, there wasn’t much to pay attention to. But on July 4, Wacha got tagged for three homers at home against the Phillies, and from then on out, it was as though a switch had been flipped. From that day through the end of the season, he gave up 13 long balls at home, and another seven on the road. Was it Wacha? The stadium? Luck? I made a note to check when the playoffs were over. Today, I’d like to give you the results of that investigation, as well as revisit my old definitions of meatballs and expected home runs. Wacha’s glut of home runs allowed wasn’t simply a fluke, and the stadium wasn’t to blame for all of those added homers. Read the rest of this entry »


Sunday Notes: NYY Prospect Dax Kilby is Debuting New Mechanics in the Desert

Dax Kilby is among the higher-profile prospects currently honing his skills in the Arizona Fall League. A 19-year-old shortstop whom the New York Yankees drafted 39th overall last year out of a Georgia high school, he ranks third in the Bombers system and No. 103 on The Board. Making up for missed time is part of why Kilby is in the desert. As Eric Longenhagen explained in his AFL preview, the 50 FV prospect dealt with a severe hamstring injury for much of 2026. He has shown promise with when healthy. This season, Kilby slashed a solid .242/.427/.403 with a 143 wRC+ over 154 plate appearances with Low-A Tampa.

How does the youngster view his early-career acclimation to pro ball?

“As I didn’t go to college, I’m seeing a lot better pitching,” Kilby told me on AFL media day. “I think that reveals a lot about who you are as a hitter. My first year, I was hitting a lot of ground balls [a 54.4% rate across 58 PAs] and using my speed to my advantage. That was definitely a change from high school, where the pitching isn’t as good and you can get into balls more often, for more power.”

Longenhagen and Brendan Gawlowski are both bullish on Kilby’s potential to do damage going forward. Addressing the 6-foot-2, 190-pound lefty swinger’s quick hands in his recent scouting notebook, Gawlowski wrote that “the way he’s able to pull them in and turn around velocity is in a class with the Max Clarks and Kevin McGonigles of the world.”

Kilby worked on mechanical changes in the weeks leading up to the AFL season. As he explained, the Yankees have him starting narrower and more open, the objective being two-fold: (1) allowing him to be more adjustable to different pitches, and (2) getting him more into his back hip, increasing the number of balls he is driving in the air. While his 40.2 GB% this year was an improvement from 2025’s pro-debut, it was still far from optimal.

Radically alternating his stroke isn’t part of the equation. Read the rest of this entry »


Fall Instructional League Notes: Royals, Giants, Padres

Taylor Rabe Photo: Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

I just finished an extended trip to watch instructs and the Arizona Fall League, and I’ve got enough in the notebook for a few posts. We’ll start with some of the looks I got at Royals, Giants, and Padres prospects on the backfields and, in a few cases, during the AFL as well. Let’s hop to it.

Kansas City Royals

Angeibel Gomez, OF

We’ll start with the guy people will ask about first. Gomez is a tapered 6-foot-2. While he isn’t a freaky athlete in the Elly De La Cruz mold, he’s limber and has a fast bat for a kid his age. Facing some of the best stuff of his life, his feel for hitting stood out. Gomez is athletic in the box, and he was able to fight off above-average velo on the hands, turn around 97 above the belt, and flatten the bat and hit a line drive on a hard fastball up, all while holding his own versus spin. He fouled off a couple tough sliders and took one just beneath the zone. He wasn’t perfect — he expanded the zone a few times and chased a curve in the dirt — but it was a really impressive showing in context.

Where does this go from here? To my eye, Gomez doesn’t look like an early-mature guy, but he also isn’t someone who screams “physical projection” in the way that, say, Sebastian Walcott did at his age. Gomez already has average measurable power, and while there’s room for him to grow into more, my projection leans closer to “comfortably plus” than “80.” Read the rest of this entry »


Job Posting: Kansas City Royals – Multiple Openings

Direct links to applications (please see job details below):

Analyst, Major League Pitching – Research & Development
Analyst, Player Development – Research & Development


Analyst, Major League Pitching – Research & Development

Location: Kauffman Stadium, One Royal Way, Kansas City, Missouri, United States of America

Job Summary: The Kansas City Royals are seeking a highly motivated and creative analyst to join the organization. Working under the direction of the Director of Research & Development, Christine Harris, the analyst will be fully integrated into the Major League clubhouse to provide resources, answers, and ideas to the Major League Pitching group. The successful candidate will combine analytical expertise and clear communication skills to translate baseball data into insights that give The Royals an edge when our pitchers step onto the mound.

Responsibilities & Duties:

  • Be a critical thinker to improve resources for pitching development and game planning strategies
  • Build reports to deliver digestible insights to coaches and players
  • Effectively communicate data with Major League coaches, staff, and players
  • Perform ad-hoc data analysis to answer questions that help inform pitching decisions
  • Maintain our processes and pipeline to deliver pitching reports and the related data daily

Requirements:

  • Record of published baseball research and or a portfolio of technical projects in any domain
  • Strong proficiency with SQL and R to query and analyze data from large data sets
  • Interpersonal and communication skills to seamlessly interact with front office, analysts, coaches, players, and other Baseball Operations personnel
  • Familiarity with modern pitching evaluation and pitching development metrics

Preferred Qualifications:

  • Software engineering background with the ability to design and build systems programmatically
  • Experience building models with large data sets to answer research questions
  • Experience as a player, coach, or staff member in a high level sports environment
  • Proficiency with HTML and CSS to create and maintain interactive reports or PDFs
  • 4-year degree or equivalent experience in computer science, mathematics, statistics, or related quantitative field

Position Details

  • This position requires full-time travel with the Major League team during Spring Training, regular season, and Postseason
  • Relocation to Kansas City is required in-season. However, there is no requirement to relocate full time.
    • If you relocate full time, you will receive a one-time moving stipend
    • If you maintain permanent residency outside of Kansas City, you will receive a monthly living stipend in-season
  • Travel to Arizona for Major League Spring Training is required
  • Minimal Travel Required in season

Physical Requirements:

  • Ability to lift items weighing as much as 15 pounds
  • Must be able to work in a seated position for majority of workday
  • Must be able to be productive utilizing a computer keyboard and telephone
  • Must be able to be productive in a work environment where the noise level can be high at times
  • Must be comfortable walking to navigate the facility to access the office, concourse, etc.
  • Must be able to work extended hours and/or weekends as required by deadlines and event scheduling

The physical demands described here are representative of those that may be met by an employee to successfully perform the essential functions of this job.

This role is a Full-Time, Exempt opportunity that is eligible for Company Benefits, 401K, and PTO. This role is expected to have a standard 40-hour work week.
We also afford equal employment opportunities to qualified individuals with a disability. For this reason, the Kansas City Royals will make reasonable accommodations for the known physical or mental limitations of an otherwise qualified individual with a disability who is an applicant consistent with its legal obligations to do so, including reasonable accommodations applicable local, state and / or federal law. As part of its commitment to make reasonable accommodations, the Club also wishes to participate in a timely, good faith, interactive process with a disabled applicant to determine effective reasonable accommodations, if any, which can be made in response to a request for accommodations. Applicants are invited to identify reasonable accommodations that can be made to assist them to perform the essential functions of the position they seek. Any applicant who requires an accommodation in order to perform the essential functions please inquire with Human Resources by email at humanresources@royals.com.

We are an equal opportunity employer, and all qualified applicants will receive consideration for employment without regard to race, color, religion, age, sex, national origin, disability status, protected veteran status, or any other characteristic protected by law.

To Apply

To apply, please follow this link.


Analyst, Player Development – Research & Development

Location: Kauffman Stadium, One Royal Way, Kansas City, Missouri, United States of America

Job Summary: The Kansas City Royals are seeking a highly motivated and creative analyst to join the organization. Working under the direction of the Director of Research & Development, Christine Harris, the analyst will be fully integrated into the Minor League Player Development system to strengthen the resources used to maximize player performance. The successful candidate will combine analytical expertise and clear communication skills to translate baseball data into insights that give The Royals an edge when it comes to developing the best baseball talent in the game.

Responsibilities & Duties:

  • Oversee and run the Player Development pipeline that delivers data and reports to the organization on a daily basis
  • Be a critical thinker to improve resources for player development strategies
  • Build reports to deliver digestible insights to coaches and players
  • Effectively communicate data with Minor League coaches, staff, and players
  • Perform ad-hoc data analysis to answer questions that help inform player development decisions

Requirements:

  • Record of published baseball research and or a portfolio of technical projects in any domain
  • Strong proficiency with SQL and R to query and analyze data from large data sets
  • Interpersonal and communication skills to seamlessly interact with front office, analysts, coaches, players, and other Baseball Operations personnel
  • Familiarity with modern player evaluation and player development metrics

Preferred Qualifications:

  • Software engineering background with the ability to design and build systems programmatically
  • Experience building models with large data sets to answer research questions
  • Experience as a player, coach, or staff member in a high level sports environment
  • Familiarity with the landscape of Minor League Baseball and its teams and players
  • Proficiency with HTML and CSS to create and maintain interactive reports or PDFs
  • 4-year degree or equivalent experience in computer science, mathematics, statistics, or related quantitative field

Position Details

  • Relocation to Kansas City is strongly preferred but not required
  • Travel to Arizona for Minor League Spring Training is required
  • Potential for trips to Minor League Affiliates throughout the season

Physical Requirements:

  • Ability to lift items weighing as much as 15 pounds
  • Must be able to work in a seated position for majority of workday
  • Must be able to be productive utilizing a computer keyboard and telephone
  • Must be able to be productive in a work environment where the noise level can be high at times
  • Must be comfortable walking to navigate the facility to access the office, concourse, etc.
  • Must be able to work extended hours and/or weekends as required by deadlines and event scheduling

The physical demands described here are representative of those that may be met by an employee to successfully perform the essential functions of this job.

This role is a Full-Time, Exempt opportunity that is eligible for Company Benefits, 401K, and PTO. This role is expected to have a standard 40-hour work week.
We also afford equal employment opportunities to qualified individuals with a disability. For this reason, the Kansas City Royals will make reasonable accommodations for the known physical or mental limitations of an otherwise qualified individual with a disability who is an applicant consistent with its legal obligations to do so, including reasonable accommodations applicable local, state and / or federal law. As part of its commitment to make reasonable accommodations, the Club also wishes to participate in a timely, good faith, interactive process with a disabled applicant to determine effective reasonable accommodations, if any, which can be made in response to a request for accommodations. Applicants are invited to identify reasonable accommodations that can be made to assist them to perform the essential functions of the position they seek. Any applicant who requires an accommodation in order to perform the essential functions please inquire with Human Resources by email at humanresources@royals.com.

We are an equal opportunity employer, and all qualified applicants will receive consideration for employment without regard to race, color, religion, age, sex, national origin, disability status, protected veteran status, or any other characteristic protected by law.

To Apply

To apply, please follow this link.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Kansas City Royals.


Joe Musgrove Thrives in Rehab Outing, Plus More Arizona Scouting Notes

Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

While there was only one Instructional League game in the Valley on Monday, Tuesday had three options: Los Naranjeros de Hermosillo (a Mexican Pacific League team from Sonora, the Mexican State immediately south of Arizona) was at the Athletics’ facility in Mesa, while the Royals (hosting the Reds) and the Rangers (hosting the Padres) would have simultaneous games at their shared complex in Surprise. I carpooled with Baseball America contributor and photographer, Bill Mitchell, to the northwest end of the metro for those games, with two cameras in tow.

Within minutes of getting to Surprise, I learned that Joe Musgrove and Lucas Giolito were making rehab appearances for the Padres, and that the Royals-Reds game was slated for 11 innings. About 10 minutes before first pitch, I set up a camera at the Royals’ field and began to make my way over to the Rangers’ side to watch Giolito and Musgrove in real time. While anxiously daydreaming about arriving just a tad late to the other field, I wasn’t paying attention to my surroundings and was nearly hit by an errant Steven Zobac long-toss throw, which whizzed past my shins. Halfway across the parking lot, I was relieved when I heard music coming from the Rangers’ field — they were still getting loose. I made it in time. Read the rest of this entry »


Bobby Witt Jr. and the Off-Peak MVP Season

Denny Medley-Imagn Images

Bobby Witt Jr. is having a down year. He’s running his worst batting line in three seasons. He’s in danger of missing the 20-homer threshold for the first time in his career. A lower back injury in July will also limit him to a career low in games played. Put it together, and Witt is on pace to put up his the lowest WAR total since his 5.9-win 2023 campaign. Oh, and he also grabbed hold of the American League lead in WAR back in July and still hasn’t relinquished it. A down year by Bobby Witt Jr.’s standards is still good enough to make him a deserving MVP.

I don’t know if Witt is going to win his first MVP this year. Ours is the only flavor of WAR in which he leads the AL, and he leads by just a quarter of a win. He ranks third by Baseball Reference’s rWAR and is eighth by Baseball Prospectus’ WARP. Yordan Alvarez leads all of baseball in WARP because he’s hitting like, well, Yordan Alvarez and staying healthy like, well, someone other than Yordan Alvarez. Cam Schlittler leads the AL in Baseball Reference WAR, and he’s been so dominant that he deserves consideration for the Cy Young-MVP combo — if only he’d pitched just 23 fewer innings last year, he could’ve gone for the trifecta with Rookie of the Year. Kevin McGonigle has played like an MVP from the moment he arrived in Detroit, and Junior Caminero has surpassed 40 home runs for the second season in a row as a 23-year-old. All of these guys have a case, and they aren’t the only ones who merit inclusion in the discussion:

Top 20 in All Three Versions of WAR (American League)
Name fWAR Rk fWAR rWAR Rk rWAR WARP Rk WARP Avg Rk Avg WAR
Bobby Witt Jr. 1 6.6 3 6.5 8 5 4 6.0
Yordan Alvarez 2 6.4 4 6.4 1 7.3 2 6.7
Cam Schlittler 3 6.1 1 7 3 5.8 2 6.3
Dylan Cease 4 5.5 8 5.7 12 4.6 8 5.3
Miguel Vargas 5 5.2 10 5.3 2 5.9 6 5.5
Junior Caminero 6 5.2 7 5.7 5 5.3 6 5.4
Kevin McGonigle 7 5.1 2 6.7 4 5.3 4 5.7
Randy Arozarena 8 5.1 11 5.3 16 4 12 4.8
Dillon Dingler 9 4.6 25 4 23 3.3 19 4.0
Drew Rasmussen 10 4.6 21 4.2 13 4.4 15 4.4
Reid Detmers 11 4.6 35 3.7 11 4.7 19 4.3
Parker Messick 13 4.6 6 5.8 9 4.8 9 5.1
Pete Alonso 14 4.2 18 4.3 6 5.3 13 4.6
Ceddanne Rafaela 21 3.9 9 5.4 94 1.7 41 3.7
Gavin Williams 27 3.7 46 3.1 7 5.2 27 4.0
Wilyer Abreu 32 3.4 5 5.8 20 3.6 19 4.3
Mike Trout 40 3.2 28 3.9 10 4.8 26 4.0

Read the rest of this entry »


Noah Cameron’s Worst Pitch Made Him Much Better

Paul Rutherford-Imagn Images

I’m going to give you a little sneak peek into my writing process. By the middle of September, we here at FanGraphs have written about a lot of baseball players. So many baseball players. And while no one’s going to be mad about an extra article about Shohei Ohtani or Pete Crow-Armstrong or the like, we try not to repeat ourselves. How many articles about, say, Cade Cavalli should we write in a year? I’m not sure – but if I covered him in July, I probably won’t in September.

That brings me to today’s article. I keep a list of pitchers who fascinate me, and I dig into it when I’m looking for a topic. I cross-reference it with WAR leaderboards and split leaderboards – you never know when someone you’ve been pondering will get hot and merit a deeper dive. When I sat down to come up with a topic yesterday, I crossed off a few usual suspects quickly. Yup, Chase Burns is still great, but nope, it’s not time to highlight that again. Chris Sale is amazing – as you’d well know if you read FanGraphs. Trent Harris got his first save for the Giants last week – but I’ve already written about my fascination with him. Read the rest of this entry »


Sunday Notes: Dominic Canzone Developed a High Finish and is Slugging in Seattle

Dominic Canzone is having a strong season with the stick. Playing on a Seattle Mariners team that went into last night having scored the fewest runs in MLB, the 29-year-old outfielder/DH has slugged 22 home runs while putting up a .258/.327/.482 slash line and a 131 wRC+ over 474 plate appearances. Along with Randy Arozarena he is only player in Dan Wilson’s lineup with 300 or more plate appearances and a wRC+ higher than 108.

His performance hasn’t come out of the blue — at least not to fans in the Pacific Northwest. Canzone began establishing himself last season. The sample size wasn’t particularly large, but he nonetheless logged a .300 batting average, 11 round-trippers, and a 141 wRC+ in 268 trips to the plate. Selected in the eighth round of the 2019 draft by the Arizona Diamondbacks and subsequently swapped to Seattle in 2023, Canzone has turned into a formidable presence in the batter’s box.

The most meaningful developmental stride he’s made since coming to pro ball?

“Approach,” Canzone told me. “I would say that the hardest part to get as a Major League hitter is understanding how pitchers are going pitch to you in certain situations, and then having a solid approach. Everybody has the ability, so it’s all about looking for the right thing in the right spot.

“In college, it was so much easier,” added the erstwhile Ohio State Buckeye. “You pretty much just hunt the heater, because they’re not too great at landing multiple off-speed pitches for strikes. It’s easier to spit on that type of stuff and, obviously, everything isn’t as sharp.” Read the rest of this entry »


Jac Is Back and Better

Peter Aiken-Imagn Images

Jac Caglianone’s season doesn’t stick out. He doesn’t lead the league in any important statistics. He’s not likely to reach any significant thresholds. He hasn’t completely overhauled his profile. No, his season isn’t that much more interesting than that of any other 2-WAR batter. But for Caglianone, boring is good.

That’s unfortunately a testament to just how bad the Royals’ towering slugger was last year. He couldn’t hit, posting a 47 wRC+. He couldn’t play right field, with -7 OAA. He couldn’t stay healthy, missing about a month with a hamstring strain. He accumulated -1.6 WAR over 62 games. It was one of the worst rookie seasons of the century. Read the rest of this entry »


The Lane Train Is Atlanta-Bound

Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

Alright friends, let’s break down the big deadline deal from Saturday night that everyone’s talking about, the one that sent a 29-year-old left-handed pitcher who’s an impending free agent from the AL Central to an NL division leader. That’s right, we’re talking about Bailey Falter.

Well, that was fun.

On Saturday night, just before the big news about Tarik Skubal broke, Jeff Passan of ESPN reported that the Royals had traded Falter and veteran outfielder Lane Thomas to Atlanta. FanSided’s Robert Murray reported that the return was minor league pitchers Carter Holton and Lucas Braun. Falter may be able to help a depleted Braves staff finish out the regular season, but he’s headed to Triple-A Gwinnett. Thomas is the clear headliner here. One more Skubal connection before we move on: The biggest moment of Thomas’ career so far came during Game 5 of the 2024 ALDS, when he powered the Guardians past the Tigers with a grand slam off Skubal. Should the Braves and the Dodgers meet in the playoffs this season, which certainly looks like a possibility right now, that will surely be on the minds of everyone involved.

While Thomas has played all three outfield positions this year, he’s spent most of his time in center. But with Michael Harris II ensconced in center in Atlanta and Ronald Acuña Jr. in right, he’ll now be relegated to left field. That’s probably for the best, as his defense has graded out very badly in center but is roughly average in the corners. What’s more, the Braves could use the help out there. Left field is one of three positions where they merited placement as part of Jay Jaffe’s Replacement-Level Killers series; they’ve gotten 0.4 WAR out of the position this season, which ranks 23rd in baseball.

Of course, they were supposed to have Jurickson Profar in left, but he’s serving his second PED suspension since signing a three-year, $42 million employment contract with the Braves; one can only imagine what his year-end performance review will look like. Mauricio Dubón and Mike Yastrzemski have split time in left in his place, but not quite the way the Braves would have hoped. Yastrzemski started the season there while Dubón filled in for the injured Ha-Seong Kim at shortstop. When Kim returned and Acuña went down with a hamstring injury, Yastrzemski moved to right field, where he shared time with Eli White, and Dubón got left field to himself. Dubón, Yastrzemski, and White have all been below average at the plate this season. With Acuña back from the IL, Dubòn will presumably move into more of a utility role while Thomas platoons with Yaz.

Thomas had a very rough 2025 season, losing time to plantar fasciitis and putting up a 48 wRC+ and -0.5 WAR across 39 games. This year, he’s got a 101 wRC+. That’s almost exactly his career average, and it’s not much of an improvement over Dubón’s 94 mark. Moreover, Dubón’s defense has graded out well this season just about everywhere he’s played. As a result, he’s got 1.7 WAR to Thomas’s 0.8. Even accounting for the fact that Dubón has gotten roughly 100 more plate appearances than Thomas, he’s still been the more productive player this season and not by a little. So why bring in Thomas?

First, Thomas isn’t simply going to absorb Dubón’s plate appearances. Thomas will take some from Dubón, but he’ll also take some from White. Dubón is a great defender, but he hasn’t gotten to show off his versatility of late. He’ll probably get to do more bouncing around the diamond to wherever he can be most useful now. Rookie Jim Jarvis is running a 101 wRC+ at shortstop, but Dubón might end up back at the six should Jarvis stop outperforming his xwOBA.

Second, it doesn’t sound Thomas is just going to be the everyday left fielder. “The plan is not the exact same role he had in Kansas City, where he was playing every day in center,” Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos told reporters. “His strength is hitting left-handers.” Anthopoulos elaborated. “We’ve been facing a lot of left-handed openers. I think there’s been moments when [manager] Walt [Weiss] has been in a tough spot, and where he’s had to use a catcher as a right-handed pinch-hitter, and things like that. I don’t want to speak for Walt, but I think having a second right-handed option along with Eli [White], that would have opened things up for him.” Thomas faced righties nearly 60% of the time in Kansas City, and that number sure sounds like it will be much lower in Atlanta. That would be a big deal, because he’s got serious platoon splits. This season, he’s got an 84 wRC+ against righties and 125 wRC+ against lefties, and that’s actually less extreme than his career numbers.

Third, this graph might have something to do with it:

Thomas got a slow start, but he’s looked much better as the season has gone on. He ran a 124 wRC+ in July, though I’ll note that he’s been ice-cold lately, running a 26 wRC+ over his last 12 games. I doubt the Braves put too much stock in these kinds of splits, but it’s also at least worth mentioning that this is par for the course. Thomas has a career wRC+ of 104 in the second half, compared to a 96 in the first half. Whether or not you believe that he’ll be hotter from here on out, Thomas is also having an interesting season. His walk and strikeout rates are among the best of his entire career, and although his top-end contact quality hasn’t changed much, his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are the highest he’s put up since 2021. He’s making better swing decisions and making more solid contact this season, which is why his 94 DRC+ is his highest since 2023.

Thomas isn’t a game-changing bat, but you can at least talk yourself into the idea that he’s got more in the tank than his full-season stats indicate. He represents a small upgrade at a position of real weakness for the Braves. He gives them both flexibility and depth, which is rightly a priority with Acuña recovering from a hamstring injury that has already flared up once. Lastly, the Braves should be able to put him in a better position to succeed by letting him spend much more of his time facing lefties.

I don’t know whether the Braves took Falter because they might want to use him or because he represents salary relief for the Royals. He’s making $3.6 million in arbitration, so that’s at least a possibility. He’s spent much of the year on the IL with elbow inflammation, and he’s only made five appearances in Kansas City. The Royals DFA’d him earlier in the year, and his Triple-A numbers, a 3.35 ERA and 3.46 FIP, have been solid over 17 appearances. Atlanta could certainly use the depth, and they’re going to spend the next 30 hours looking for more pitching help. Joey Wentz is out for the season. Spencer Schwellenbach is isn’t yet facing live hitters. Spencer Strider’s future is uncertain. Robert Suarez has been out since June 19. Joe Jiménez, who hasn’t pitched since 2024, had another setback.

Now let’s get to the return. Braun is a 6-foot righty who turns 25 in a couple weeks. He’s got an intriguingly compact delivery that gives him an extremely low release point. It’s deceptive. It must look like the ball is just sort of popping out of his shoulder to hitters:

The Braves took Braun out of Cal State Northridge in the sixth round of the 2023 draft. He’s put up great numbers across the minors. Eric Longenhagen ranked him 10th in the system last year as a 45-FV prospect, seeing him as a future fourth or fifth starter. However, Brendan Gawlowski noted Braun’s lack of a putaway pitch and ranked him 22nd this year as a 40 FV – lower than Holton – despite a long list of positive attributes: great athleticism, a robust arsenal, the ability to hit the strike zone, success in the minors, and the funky delivery I mentioned earlier. “Deception is key here as well,” Brendan wrote, “both modern (a slightly low release) and old school (glove throw, a little hesitation toward the top that can mess with timing). All of those factors are going to be important to maintain because Braun’s stuff is just okay.”

That’s baseball. Will Braun’s funk be enough to keep fooling major leaguers? The best projections say yes, and see him as a future no. 4 starter. Brendan’s not quite so sanguine, seeing his median projection as “a length guy who can flex in and out of the rotation as needed.” We’re not going to know for sure until we see it happen. Knowing this, it’s worth noting that when Braun got promoted to Triple-A this season, his numbers took a step back. His strikeout rate dropped from 25.1% to 16.1% and his walk rate rose from 5.4% to 8.3%. His ERA rose from 3.20 to 3.92, and his FIP and expected numbers took even bigger jumps. Regardless, we’ll probably find out soon enough. Royals GM J.J. Picollo said he hopes Brain will pitch in Kansas City sooner rather than later, which I interpret to mean later this year.

Holton is an undersized lefty who sits 92-94 mph with a herky-jerky delivery and an over-the-top release point. He was a three-year starter at Vanderbilt, but after a brilliant freshman showing, his performance worsened in each of the following years. The Braves drafted him in the second round in 2024, but he underwent Tommy John that August after pitching just two innings and missed the entire 2025 season. Eric ranked him 18th in their system last year as a 40 FV, noting that in those two innings, he showcased an interesting slider. Brendan put him 19th this March (still as a 40 FV), noting that the hard slider really does look good. Unfortunately, Holton doesn’t have much beyond the slider. He’s now 23 years old, and he isn’t putting up great numbers in Low-A. He’s got a 4.32 ERA and 4.53 FIP.

I get that this is not the Tarik Skubal trade, or even the Luis Castillo trade. Thomas’ stock is lower than it was when the Guardians traded for him at the deadline two years ago, and it might seem odd for the pitching-starved Braves to be sending away a starter who seems awfully close to major league-ready. But they’re not in the market for fourth starters right now. The Braves are headed for the playoffs, and they’re looking for ways to improve their chances once they get there. They’re shoring up their weaknesses and building up their depth. They’ve landed one of the better outfielders on the market, and should they run into Skubal and the Dodgers down the line, they’ll undoubtedly feel a bit better about their chances.