On Tuesday, the White Sox announced that Carlos Rodón will undergo Tommy John surgery, prematurely ending his 2019 season. With a 12-to-16 month rehabilitation period generally the norm for pitchers undergoing TJ, even a sunny scenario for Rodón would put a serious dent in his 2020 season; a cloudier one makes it unlikely he returns to Chicago until his 2021 season.
For Rodón, it’s obviously a disaster, another setback in a career that had already been largely derailed by injuries in 2017 and 2018. Rodón was drafted third in the 2014 draft out of NC State. At the time, one of the things about Rodón that interested the White Sox was that he was quite polished, even for a top college pitcher, and as a result, was likely to get to the majors very quickly.
The White Sox were correct in this analysis. Rodón’s major league debut, a relief appearance against the Cleveland Indians early in 2015, was only his 12th game as a professional. Three relief appearances later — including two rather lengthy ones at 60 and 63 pitches — Rodón entered the rotation. He acquitted himself quite well as a rookie, with a 3.87 FIP in 139.1 innings, good enough for 1.8 WAR, even as he was a little lucky in his homers allowed. He showed continued progression in 2016, dropping over a walk a game, and ended up with a 4.04 ERA, a 4.01 FIP, and 2.8 WAR.
Since mid-2016, Rodón has racked up an unfortunate injury history. First, he missed a month in 2016 slipping on the dugout steps, spraining his wrist. Sadly, this is a story I know all too well, having been forced to wear a wrist brace about a decade ago after a similar fall on my stairs; there was feline involvement. Read the rest of this entry »
There are varying tactics when it comes to approaches at the plate. Getting ahead and waiting for the right pitch is one. Swinging at the first good pitch you see because you might not get another is a second. Protecting the plate when behind in the count comes up often. Hitters use some or all of that when they step up to bat, but Yoan Moncada’s patience last season ended up hurting what could have been a much better season. A more aggressive approach thus far has shown much better results this year as Moncada attempts to take the next step in his development.
Last season, Moncada has a walk rate of 10.3%, which is good, and a strikeout rate of 33.4%, which is bad. The only players at 23 years of age or younger to put up double-digit walk rates and a strikeout rate above 30% (which is going to limit how far back we go given the massive rise in strikeouts) are Kris Bryant (2015) and Joey Gallo (2017). Gallo hit 41 homers to make himself an offensively valuable player. Bryant was constantly making great contact when he did put the ball in play on his way to a Rookie of the Year campaign. Moncada hit the ball hard when he made contact, but not at the same level as Bryant, and ended with a 97 wRC+ on the year. Changes are necessary to improve on that mark, and it looks like Moncada may indeed be making them.
Last week at MLB.com, Mike Petriello also wrote about Moncada, noting just how terrible he was on two-strike pitches, notably pitches on the edge, which caused an absurdly high number of called third strikes.
That made the problem easy to diagnose, if not easy to solve. Don’t get to two strikes. But also, don’t get to two strikes being so desperate that you start expanding your zone and flailing at bad pitches.
We know this, because Moncada and the Sox spent a lot of time talking about it.
“As long as he maintains an aggressive approach within the strike zone, which he has been increasing,” Chicago manager Rick Renteria said to MLB.com in July, “he has a chance of having really good success obviously.”
“We made a plan,” Moncada said to MLB.com in December, referring to extensive offseason work with White Sox coaches. “Right now, I am in a better position to succeed and to be a better player next season. It was a very good experience, overall.”
“We ended up attacking the topic of his strike-zone approach,” Renteria said. “He has great ability to take pitches. That’s something that’s innate in him.”
Petriello noted that Moncada was being a bit more aggressive, particularly with the zone, and he was hitting the ball harder and striking out less, all good outcomes. Moncada has lowered his strikeout rate to 24% on the season, and while that might not necessarily represent a new skill level, even after 66 plate appearances it is enough to change our expectations considering last year’s 33% mark. Moncada’s walks have gone down to about 6%, but he is tearing the cover off the ball with a .242 ISO and a .395 BABIP, which has helped lead to a 152 wRC+. The decrease in walks isn’t great for Moncada, but the lowered strikeouts more than make up for that. Consider that when Moncada put the ball in play last season, he put up a 175 wRC+, one of the top 30 marks in the game. This year, he’s putting up a 227 wRC+ when he puts the ball in play, but he doesn’t need that to keep up to make a different to his overall line as we know that BABIP is going to come down some even if we reasonably expect him to post a high value. Read the rest of this entry »
T.S. Eliot once mused that April is the cruelest month, but for me, it’s the most curmudgeonly one. While baseball returning is always a good thing, a good portion of my April job is to (partially) crush the hopes and dreams of fans excited about hot starts from their favorite players. While stats don’t literally lie, April numbers, thanks to our old friend and scapegoat small sample size, only tell a little bit of the story of 2019. But as cautious as I try to be about jumping to conclusions in baseball’s first month, at least some of those torrid beginnings will contain more than the customary grain of truth. So let’s go out on that proverbial limb and try to guess which scorching Aprils represent something real.
I’ve been burned before touching this hot stove, but there’s something so compelling about Moncada’s early-season performances as to once again disarm the skeptic in me. In 2018’s version of this piece, Moncada’s high exit velocity and his .267/.353/.524 April line had me believing that he had finally turned the corner, the one long-expected from a young, talented player with impressive physical tools.
As the narrator meme goes, he had not turned that corner. Moncada spent the next two months with an OPS that didn’t touch .600, and his final 2018 line represented no real improvement over his 2017.
Moncada is hitting the ball just as hard as he did last year, with his average exit velocity ranking sixth in baseball. But this time around, his performance is also coming with some significant progress in his contact statistics. Moncada’s profile has always been a bit weird in that he doesn’t seem to have a serious problem chasing bad pitches, certainly not as you would expect from a player who just led the league in strikeouts with the fourth-highest total in baseball history. But Moncada was in the top 20 in not swinging at pitches outside the zone.
In 2019, he’s been more aggressive, swinging at more bad and good pitches, but there hasn’t been a corresponding contact tradeoff, and he’s in fact making more contact overall, especially against good pitches. Given that one of the purposes of plate discipline is for hitters to actually hit the good pitch they eke out of the dude on the mound, I once again return to the ranks of the believers. Read the rest of this entry »
These are notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.
Luis Robert, CF, Chicago White Sox Level: Hi-A Age: 21 Org Rank:4FV: 55 Line: 2-for-4, HR, 2 HBP
Notes
Off to hot start, Robert has multi-hit efforts in each of his first four games and has already stolen three bases and homered three times. After watching LouBob a lot last year (first while he rehabbed multiple injuries, then in the Fall League), I grew concerned about how his bat path might limit the quality of his contact (he sometimes struggled to pull pitches he should have) or his rate of contact, which we don’t have a large-enough sample to properly assess because of his injuries. So far, the pull-side stuff hasn’t been founded, as all but two of Robert’s balls in play so far this year have been to the right side of the field, and those were both pop-ups to the second baseman. He’s one of the more physically-gifted players in pro baseball.
Darwinzon Hernandez, LHP, Boston Red Sox Level: Double-A Age: 22 Org Rank:2FV: 45 Line: 5 IP, 2 H, 4 BB, 0 R, 10 K
Notes
We do not think Hernandez is a long-term starter and instead think he’ll be an elite bullpen arm. His fastball often sits in the upper-90s when he’s starting so it should at least stay there if he’s moved to relief and, though his feel for it comes and goes, his curveball can be untouchable at times. Maybe the strong early-season performances of Matt Barnes, Brandon Workman, and Ryan Brasier has stifled some of the disquiet about the Red Sox bullpen, but in the event that they need an impact arm, I think it’s more likely to be Hernandez than a piece outside the org. Some of this is due to the quality of the farm system, but Hernandez might also just be better than a lot of the options that will eventually be on the trade market. Read the rest of this entry »
Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Chicago White Sox. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.
All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a new feature at the site that offers sortable scouting information for every organization. That can be found here.
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Dominican Republic (CHC)
Age
22.3
Height
6′ 4″
Weight
225
Bat / Thr
R / R
FV
60
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit
Raw Power
Game Power
Run
Fielding
Throw
50/55
70/80
60/70
40/40
45/50
60/60
Even before the White Sox acquired Jimenez from the Cubs in the Jose Quintana trade, he had dealt with a multitude of injuries. Hamstring and shoulder issues plagued him while he was still with the Cubs, and limited him to DH duty, or forced him to sit out for a few days at a time, or altogether kept rehabbing him on the Mesa backfields. He has continued to have various issues since the South Siders acquired him. In 2018 alone, Jimenez dealt with patella tendinitis during the early part of spring training, then was left back in extended due to a strained pec. He suffered a strained left adductor in July, and finally a quad strain this winter, which ended his Dominican Winter League season.
But while Eloy has missed considerable time with injuries and sometimes played through them, he has mashed like few other players in the minors. He split 2018 between Double-A Birmingham and Triple-A Charlotte, slashing .337/.384/.577, his strikeout rate plummeting to 13% at the latter stop. Despite his limited speed and at-bats, he somehow managed to net 53 extra-base hits and seemed ready for a big league cup of coffee in September. The White Sox refused to brew him one, and Eloy’s agent threatened to file a grievance against the club, an issue that was resolved during 2019 spring training with a record contract extension. He’ll likely be up all year, and while we think there’s a chance injury or a lack of mobility limit Eloy’s ceiling the way flaws have similarly limited some of Chicago’s other recent prospect graduates, we still think he’ll hit enough to be a star.
Drafted: 1st Round, 2014 from Mt. Pleasant HS (TX) (BOS)
Age
22.9
Height
6′ 3″
Weight
195
Bat / Thr
R / R
FV
55
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball
Slider
Changeup
Command
Sits/Tops
70/70
50/60
45/55
40/45
94-98 / 101
Just as Kopech seemed to be harnessing his hellacious stuff, he blew out. In the seven minor league starts before his big league debut, Kopech walked just four batters, and he was similarly efficient in his first few big league outings. His velocity was down and the Tigers shelled him in his final start, and an MRI revealed Kopech would need Tommy John. The timing was particularly cruel, not just because things had started to click, but also because late-season TJs usually cost the pitcher all of the next year; Kopech isn’t expected to be back until 2020.
His stuff is great, headlined by a mid-90s fastball that often crests 100 mph. The command inroads Kopech made late in 2018 are especially important for his ability to deal with lefties, because his changeup feel is not very good. He’ll need to mix his two breaking balls together to deal with them, and his slider feel is way ahead of the curveball. So long as Kopech’s stuff returns, he has No. 3 starter ceiling if the command comes with it, and high-leverage relief ability if the latter does not.
When Madrigal fractured his wrist during Oregon State’s second series of the year, he was hitting .560 (14-for-25) with two doubles, two homers, and three steals in three attempts. For two long weekends in Arizona, he did everything. He crushed balls in all parts of the strike zone, ran plus-plus times to first base, and made several highlight reel defensive plays at second base. The wrist fracture kept him out for the rest of February, all of March, and most of April. When he returned, Madrigal kept hitting, but not for power, which is consistent with what plagues hitters for several months after they’ve had a break in the hand/wrist area.
That trend continued through his first pro summer, which was interrupted by a hamstring issue, as Madrigal struggled to pull and/or lift the ball at all. He had a downward, slashing swing instead of the dynamic and athletic cut he’d had early in the year, when he could scoop and lift stuff at the bottom of the zone. But he kept making contact. It was a month before a pro pitcher was able to strike Madrigal, who only K’d in 3% of his pro plate appearances last year, out.
It’s fair to make a distinction between prospects who are small, and ones who are just short. Jose Altuve is short, but is built like a little tank. Madrigal is small, a diminutive 5-foot-7, 165 pounds, and this, combined with his total lack of post-draft power, has the pro side of scouting very concerned. He looked tired and sluggish during instructional league, though it wasn’t as if he’d played a whole year and was an obvious candidate to be run down, furthering concerns that his size will be an issue. We’re inclined to believe there’s a substantial bounce-back on the horizon. He was the best draft-eligible hitter we saw last year, a complete player with few, if any, flaws.
More than a full year removed from all that intrigue and we still know relatively little about Luis Robert, largely due to a thumb ligament sprain LouBob dealt with throughout 2018. His signing with Chicago marked the end of a more lucrative era for young international players who are now subject to more tight-fisted rules capping bonus amounts. Despite a limited market due to the timing of his deal, Robert signed for $26 million thanks to his all-world physical gifts. The raw power and top-end speed were obvious in workouts, but unless teams scouted him in Series Nacional or during the Cuban National team’s annual CanAm League tour, little was known about his ability to hit big league-quality pitching, or what his instincts were like in center field.
Because his thumb cost him April, May, and July (he re-aggravated it), it was hard to get extended looks during 2018 until Robert’s six-week stint in the Arizona Fall League (which was also interrupted by a hamstring issue). LouBob’s AFL stats were fine, but his swing path left him vulnerable to velocity on the inner half, and he too often expanded the zone. There’s doubt that he’ll get to all of his raw power in games, both due to the swing path and lack of plate discipline, but it isn’t as if he’s had time to make proper adjustments yet, and the pitching he saw in Arizona was the best he’s seen in his life. The ceiling is the same as it was purported to be before he signed: power, speed, offensive performance similar to Carlos Gomez’s best years. There’s just more risk that Robert doesn’t get there.
Drafted: 6th Round, 2014 from Milton HS (GA) (CHC)
Age
23.3
Height
6′ 2″
Weight
190
Bat / Thr
R / R
FV
50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball
Curveball
Changeup
Command
Sits/Tops
70/70
55/60
45/50
40/45
95-98 / 101
Cease burst onto the scouting scene in 2013 when, as a junior in high school, he hit 96 mph and flashed an above average curveball at the heavily-scouted NHSI tournament in Cary, NC. He mostly held serve in his senior year, occasionally touching a tick or two higher or flashing 60 with his curveball, but was still a stuff over command type. The Cubs went well overslot to get Cease in the sixth round with a $1 million bonus, below what his talent was worth, but appropriate since clubs knew he needed Tommy John surgery right after he signed.
He’s slowly made progress in terms of starter traits during his pro career, while his velocity has increased to where he sits 95-98 mph now. In 2018, he took the biggest step forward, dominating High-A and Double-A at age 22, and some scouts are now projecting him as a No. 2 or 3 starter. We still aren’t completely convinced, as Cease is still control over command, and may fit best in a multi-inning relief role, or as a starter who doesn’t face any hitters a third time.
Dunning was an intriguing projection arm in high school who flashed average stuff and had some athleticism. Then he took a big step forward in his freshman year at Florida. At his best, Dunning has three pitches that flash plus at times and starter command, but most often has above average stuff and good control, consistent with a No. 4 starter look. The Nationals took him in the late first round in 2016 despite him being the bullpen/midweek/spot starting utility knife on a loaded staff. He was in the Adam Eaton deal in 2018 and missed the second half of 2018 with an elbow strain, before tearing his UCL and having Tommy John during 2019 spring training. He’ll be back midway through 2020 and is likely to be pushed quickly to the big leagues if his stuff is back.
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Dominican Republic (CHW)
Age
22.6
Height
6′ 3″
Weight
200
Bat / Thr
R / R
FV
45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit
Raw Power
Game Power
Run
Fielding
Throw
30/40
65/65
40/55
50/45
40/40
50/50
When Micker Adolfo (often referred to by scouts as Micker Zapata while he was an amateur) was 14 years old, he moved from the Virgin Islands to the Dominican Republic to train for his future baseball career. Mostly due to his huge raw power, he signed for what was then a franchise IFA-record $1.6 million, a mark that has since been shattered by Luis Robert. Adolfo’s early career was mired in strikeouts and injury. He struck out at a 43% clip in his first season, missed most of 2015 due to a gruesome leg fracture, and then broke his hamate a month into 2016 and hit for no power after he returned.
While he continues to strike out at a somewhat troubling rate (30% combined over the last two seasons), Adolfo has performed each of the last two years despite playing through an elbow injury that required Tommy John in 2018. He’s grown into the power expected of him as an amateur and has slugged just shy of .460 as an age-appropriate regular at Low- and Hi-A. Back from Tommy John during the Spring of 2019, Adolfo looked buff, but stiff. The power is still there, but so too is the risk he ends up as a DH. One has to wonder if, through no fault of his own, the large swaths of inactivity throughout his career have led to an early tumble down the defensive spectrum. We still really like that power potential and are encouraged by the last two years of output. At this point, Adolfo’s tools probably are what they are (though perhaps some arm comes back further removed from surgery) and his statistical performance will drive his stock.
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2012 from Venezuela (BOS)
Age
22.6
Height
6′ 0″
Weight
170
Bat / Thr
S / R
FV
45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit
Raw Power
Game Power
Run
Fielding
Throw
30/40
50/50
45/50
60/60
40/45
60/60
Basabe shredded the Carolina League for the first two and a half months of 2018 — hitting .266/.370/.502 — then had one of the year’s most impressive feats of strength when he turned around a 102 mph Hunter Greene fastball at the Futures Game, and deposited it 10 rows deep to right-center field. His second half with Double-A Birmingham was less successful, and just as Basabe appeared to be adjusting to the better pitching in August, he would again struggle in the Arizona Fall League. Perhaps the most notable takeaway from the AFL is that Basabe’s instincts in center field are not great, and he may be better suited for a corner despite his speed. If that’s the case (it’d be fair to assume Basabe was gassed during the AFL and to just exclude that look from consideration) then the swing and miss aspect of the profile (27% K% last year) becomes a little scary. But Basabe has a potent collection of physical tools, he’s walked at an above-average clip, his modest power plays in games because he lifts the ball, and all of that should enable him to be a second division regular.
Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Chaminade Prep HS (CA) (NYY)
Age
21.9
Height
6′ 3″
Weight
195
Bat / Thr
L / R
FV
45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit
Raw Power
Game Power
Run
Fielding
Throw
30/50
50/50
30/45
50/45
40/50
45/45
Famous since his days as a high school underclassman, Rutherford was a likely over-slot target of teams picking early in round two of the 2016 draft, but the Yankees took him 18th overall and signed him for about $800,000 over slot. He had a strong track record of performance in high school, but concerns about his power projection arose during Rutherford’s first full season, when he slugged just .348. One could point to his age (Rutherford was as old as a junior college prospect on draft day) as an indicator that should have been tempered our expectations of his power growth in the first place. But really, Rutherford’s swing, while picturesque, is just geared for all-fields doubles. He has some low-ball, home run power to his pull side, but otherwise does damage peppering the gaps and third baseline. Half of his 2018 doubles were struck to left of center field. It’s not an ideal profile for a corner outfielder, but Rutherford is a likely big leaguer. We have him projected as a low-end regular.
The quick-batted Gonzalez had a breakout 2018, with a 140 wRC+ during half seasons at Low- and Hi-A. He stands way off the dish, which creates some quality-of-contact limitations on pitches away from him in exchange for an ability to open up and turn on inside pitches with authority. It’s an approach that’s typically shiftable, but Gonzalez is also a good bunter and runs well to combat this. Like Rutherford ahead of him, it’s tough to project corner outfielders with middling power as average or better regulars. Rutherford is younger and perhaps has a better shot to grow into more, while Gonzalez has the superior feel for contact and might end up a 6 bat who doesn’t need to hit for power to profile. The two are pretty interchangeable depending on your preference.
We suppose Collins could catch on occasion, but he probably shouldn’t be back there every day due to issues with receiving and mobility. Despite only fitting at 1B/DH, Collins’ combination of power and on base ability make it likely that he finds his way into regular big league at-bats somewhere, especially if the DH is instituted in the National League. His 19% walk rate was among the best in the minors last year, and just 33% of Collins’ balls in play are on the ground. He’s a pretty good three true outcomes prospect, a bat-only 1-2 WAR player à la Josh Bell or Justin Bour, who we’ll likely see in the big leagues by 2020.
Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from Missouri State (CHW)
Age
23.0
Height
6′ 2″
Weight
210
Bat / Thr
R / R
FV
40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit
Raw Power
Game Power
Run
Fielding
Throw
35/50
60/60
40/55
45/30
40/45
60/60
Thick and tightly wound, Burger was already a tenuous bet to stay at third base for very long before he twice ruptured his Achilles tendon, once during a spring training game and again while rehabbing in late May. The 12 month timetable for return from Achilles tears was reset, and puts Burger on track to come back sometime in June. While there are questions about his defense, Burger was one of the top college bats in the 2017 class. He has quick, explosive hands that generate big bat speed, and he has unusual bat control for someone who swings as hard as he does. He has sizable ceiling, especially if he can find a way to stay at third base, but we just won’t know what kind of toll the injuries have taken until Burger starts playing games again. He’s a good bet to see time in the 2019 Arizona Fall League.
It’s rare for there to be a college hitter with this kind of scintillating, violent bat speed, let alone one who’s overshadowed by an even toolsier teammate the way Walker was by Kyler Murray. Perhaps it was concerns about strikeouts, or the vague and mysterious injury bug that bit Walker during the Big 12 tournament, that caused him to fall out of the first round despite hitting .352/.441/.606 in a large conference. He’s an athletic swinger with a natural uppercut swing that seemed likely to help him lift the ball regularly, and the little bit of batted ball data we have from after Walker signed suggests that notion is correct. We’re doubtful that he stays in center field long term, but it’s hard to say that definitively because Walker lost reps there to Murray in college, and may yet develop better feel. He’s likely a big league regular if he can either stay in center or avoid perilously high strikeout rates, a star if he does both, and a corner platoon bat if he does neither.
Lambert’s strikeout rate exploded from 16% in 2017 to nearly 29% in 2018. The cause? A slight uptick in velocity paired with an arm slot change that has Lambert coming straight over the top, creating more life on his heater. It also creates more vertical action on his breaking stuff. This delivery appears tough to maintain, as Lambert has to contort his body to get to that slot, but he hasn’t been wild since making the change. His well-rounded collection of stuff plays much better like this, and Lambert now projects as a No. 4 or 5 starter.
Drafted: 12th Round, 2015 from San Diego State (CHW)
Age
25.6
Height
6′ 0″
Weight
215
Bat / Thr
R / R
FV
40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit
Raw Power
Game Power
Run
Fielding
Throw
35/40
60/60
40/45
30/30
45/45
50/50
Likely a long-time bat first, backup catcher, Zavala has some power, an average arm, and has worked hard to become a viable defensive catcher. Lauded for his makeup, Zavala got big and strong after he was drafted but appeared more lean and lithe this spring. He could get his first taste of the majors in 2019.
Drafted: 5th Round, 2017 from South Carolina (CHW)
Age
23.6
Height
6′ 3″
Weight
205
Bat / Thr
R / R
FV
40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball
Slider
Changeup
Command
Sits/Tops
60/60
50/55
40/45
45/50
93-95 / 97
Yet another South Carolina Gamecock having success in pro ball, Johnson is a physical beast with big velocity. He struck out nearly 40% of opposing hitters in 2018 by relying heavily on the heater. Both his slider and changeup are serviceable, and Johnson projects in a middle relief role.
Likely in need of a swing change to profile at first, Sheets’ cut too often slices down at the baseball, and he can only get to his considerable raw power in certain parts of the strike zone. He has good bat control and makes mid-flight adjustments to breaking balls, which he has the raw strength to punish even if the timing of his lower half has been compromised. He’s a good hitter, just one we’re skeptical will clear the offensive bar at first base without trading some contact for power. Sheets is also another example of why we should be skeptical of hitters’ power numbers at Wake Forest.
In a starter/reliever grey area, Stephens doesn’t have the changeup quality typically desired from a starter, but he can back foot his breaking balls and work cut in on the hands of lefties, so the lack of change may not matter. His curveball, typically in the upper-70s, has premium raw spin; that pitch should alone carry him to a role on a big league staff. He spent 2018 with Triple-A Charlotte and is a strong multi-inning relief candidate.
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2018 from Mississippi State (CHW)
Age
21.6
Height
6′ 3″
Weight
228
Bat / Thr
L / L
FV
40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball
Curveball
Changeup
Command
Sits/Tops
45/45
50/50
45/50
45/55
87-91 / 92
Pilkington missed an SEC bat per inning during his stay at Mississippi State, and seemed like a potentially quick-moving, low-variance backend starter prospect when the White Sox made him their third round pick last year. Physically mature and wielding vanilla stuff, Pilkington’s upside is limited, and most of his draft value was in perceived certainty. His stuff was sometimes down in the mid-80s during the 2019 spring, though. Ideally, he’ll move to the upper levels pretty quickly, assuming his velocity rebounds.
What a roller coaster of a career it has already been for Hansen, who looked like a possible top three pick as a college sophomore, faltered as a junior, appeared reborn once free of seemingly poor college instruction, then collapsed again in 2018 when he was hurt for a time (forearm) and had more walks than innings pitched.
At his best, Hansen will sit 94-97 early in starts and both his breaking balls will be plus. Last year his velo was down, sometimes into the upper-80s. Hansen is built like an Andean Condor, and it’s fair to anticipate mechanical consistency arriving late for an athlete built like that. But he turns 25 this year and even if his stuff bounces back, we think he’ll just end up in a relief role.
Burdi’s stuff was way down when he returned from Tommy John last year. He was 97-101 with a plus slider and changeup prior to his injury and at his ranking peak, was one of the few relief-only prospects who we considered a 50 FV prospect. During his AZL rehab outings and in the AFL, Burdi was often throwing just 92-94 and his slider’s spin rate dropped to 2200 rpm after spiraling in at 2700 rpm when he was healthy. He had to be shut down during the spring of 2019 spring and while we’re hopeful for an eventual bounce-back, Burdi’s future is murky.
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (CHW)
Age
18.8
Height
6′ 3″
Weight
180
Bat / Thr
L / L
FV
40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit
Raw Power
Game Power
Run
Fielding
Throw
25/55
50/50
20/50
45/40
45/45
45/45
An 18-year-old leviathan, Mieses is much more physical than his listed 180 pounds, and it’s shocking to watch him use his instincts and first step to close on balls in center field, even though he likely won’t play there for very long. He has exceptional hand-eye coordination and finds all sorts of ways to put the bat head on the ball but too often, he offers at pitcher’s pitches and settles for sub-optimal contact. He has a gorgeous, low-ball left-handed swing that could produce power if Miesis learned to attack the right pitches. The near bottom-of-the-scale walk rates each of his first two years are certainly a red flag, but Mieses’ size and hitting ability make him an intriguing, high-ceiling flier.
Heuer spent his first two college seasons in the Wichita State bullpen but was frequently seen by draft room decision makers as a junior because they were in to see Alec Bohm and Greyson Jenista. His arm slot and spotty college fastball command made a bullpen projection popular, but because Heuer is a big-framed, cold weather (Colorado) high schooler who threw limited innings for two years in college, we’re a little more optimistic about him improving. He had a strong fall instructional league during which his mid-90s sinker worked as an effective precursor for a good changeup. He doesn’t have great breaking ball spin but at times his fastballs cut on him, and there might be a viable third pitch here that simply isn’t a traditional breaking ball. He’s likely a two-pitch reliever but in our estimation, there’s room for growth because of the background. He could be a workhorse backend starter.
Drafted: 5th Round, 2014 from Texas-Arlington (CHW)
Age
25.4
Height
6′ 7″
Weight
230
Bat / Thr
R / R
FV
35+
You could argue Thompson belongs up with Jordan Stephens on this list, especially because Thompson doesn’t yet need to occupy a 40-man spot the way Stephens does, but even though they’re each likely to end up in the bullpen, Thompson is the one who has already moved. He sits 92-95 and has an above-average curveball, a pretty standard two-pitch middle relief mix.
It seems that, after his velocity yo-yo’d throughout college (probably due to inconsistent usage) and early as a pro, Flores’ fastball has settled in 89-92 range. It just means he’ll have to pitch off of his secondaries more, the best of which is a tilting, 2-to-7 curveball that spins in at about 2750 rpm. Flores will throw the curve in the zone for strikes or bounce it in the dirt to his glove side. He can also create good angle in on righties with what looks like a cutter. He’s at least strong rotation depth, if not just a good No. 5 starter.
There’s warranted age-based skepticism of Mendick’s numbers at Hi- and Double-A each of the last two years, but it’s encouraging that he had such a strong 2018 after a bad month and a half at Birmingham the year prior. He was similarly excellent during 2019 spring training, though most of his at-bats came against late-inning reserve arms. But as a versatile infielder with terrific control of the strike zone, Mendick is a very rosterable big leaguer who should give you good at-bats off the bench. His career peripherals are strong and may be an indication that we’re sleeping on him a bit because of his age.
Drafted: 33th Round, 2018 from De La Salle Collegiate HS (MI) (CHW)
Age
19.3
Height
6′ 0″
Weight
200
Bat / Thr
R / R
FV
35+
A late-round, cold-weather high school flier who signed for $290,000, Bush played in some of the big prep showcases during his final amateur summer, and was clearly overmatched against the better pitching. But he put on an absolute show during batting practice and has one of the best raw power projections among potential future Sox. He had a strong pro debut on paper and continued to look good with the bat during the spring of 2019. The general scouting consensus is that Bush will not stay at his current third base and will have to move to an outfield corner or first, which immediately makes Bush’s high school whiffs troublesome. He’s a high-risk, long-term developmental prospect with some of the louder offensive tools in the system.
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Venezuela (CHW)
Age
19.2
Height
6′ 0″
Weight
180
Bat / Thr
R / R
FV
35+
While initial impressions of Sosa were that he had a shot to hit his way to an everyday gig at second base, continued evaluations indicate he may have sufficient instincts and footwork to remain at short despite limited straight-line speed. The bat control required for him to clear the middle infield offensive bar is there, but he’s not physically projectable, and needs to be more selective at the dish.
Burr is Arizona State’s all-time saves leader. He was 93-96 with an above-average slider almost every time out as a Sun Devil, but began experiencing wild fluctuations in velocity during his early time in pro ball. But in 2017, his stuff returned to its collegiate form; the Dbacks traded him for International bonus space, and Burr sped to the majors. He profiles as a standard, two-pitch reliever, but the velo fluctuation and 2016 injury dilute his FV a tad.
Drafted: 11th Round, 2016 from Washington State (CHW)
Age
23.8
Height
6′ 0″
Weight
200
Bat / Thr
R / R
FV
35+
Hamilton has thrown very hard dating back to college and has maintained that kind of velo despite having one of the longer arm actions in baseball. His upper-80s slider is a gravity ball that spins at just 1600 rpm. It seems to work as long as Hamilton locates it, but his delivery is pretty hard to repeat. He profiles in middle relief as long as that weird slider plays against big league hitters.
Other Prospects of Note
Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.
This is the most important group of the Others because any of them might be on the main section of the list by mid-season. Nunez can hit but will be limited to second base and his body is maxed out. He’ll need to develop a 6 bat, but he has a shot to get there. Weaver is a skinny 19-year-old with speed. He needs to get stronger. Comas has a big frame, and good hand-eye and bat control, but his swing is disconcertingly long. Delgado is built like a fullback and has some pop and a shot to stay at third base. Guerrero’s body has gone backwards since his amateur days but he’s still very young and was an interesting $1 million power projection signee not long ago.
Some teams like Rivera at shortstop and he can really swing it, but he’s too aggressive and probably maxes out as a utility guy. Fisher has great feel to hit but the college injury that contributed to his moving out from behind the plate turned out to be significant. Zangari has huge power but hasn’t played much in two years due to Tommy John.
Medeiros is a low slot lefty with a good slider. That may not be enough once new pitcher usage rules are implemented next year. Puckett has backend stuff but is 24 and had TJ this spring. Ledo has been into the mid-90s and flashes a plus split. Bilous would do that in college but has been more 90-92 as a pro. Henzman could have a 55 slider at maturity and pitch in a bullpen.
System Overview
This system has dealt with an unusual number of severe injuries — with several TJs, including two to positions players, plus Burger’s Achilles and Luis Robert’s thumb injuries — but it’s hard not to note that most of the name prospects the Sox have acquired have fallen a little short of expectations. Most of them are still very young, but Moncada’s contact issues are concerning, Lucas Giolito’s stuff has been all over the place, Reynaldo Lopez has been erratic, and several of the pitchers are throwing a little less hard now than they were in prior years.
That reads like finger pointing at player dev, but Chris Getz has only been running that department since the fall of 2016 and if we don’t count the guys who have been hurt badly during his tenure, there are more stock up players during that span (Lambert for sure, plus Zavala, and we’d say Gonzalez though it seems like he was in some teams’ late first round mix and it’s possible we were just light on him as an amateur) than there are instances of frustration (Sheets would ideally have more lift, and spring looks at Pilkington indicate he may have backed up). With that in mind, the players to watch are the 2017 July 2 signees and the 2018 high schoolers (Mieses, Bush, Delgado, Cabrera, Comas), since it’s the first talent Getz and Co. will get to mold from such an age, as Chicago has been college-heavy in recent drafts.
This system is top-heavy, with potential stars leading the way and very little in the way of depth beyond those few names, though the group of recent high school selections in the 35+ FV tier and Others of Note should yield a gem or two. The third overall pick in the draft will help replace some of the clout lost when Eloy graduates, and it’s possible that some of the veterans on expiring deals (Jose Abreu, Ivan Nova, Yonder Alonso, Welington Castillo) could net something at the trade deadline.
Eloy Jimenez’s deal with the Chicago White Sox will be for six years and $43 million, as @Ken_Rosenthal said. It will include a pair of club options and can max out around $77 million, sources tell ESPN.
An important point here is that the White Sox appear to have leveraged service time manipulation to their advantage, as noted by Ken Rosenthal, though they’re far from the first club to have done so. Since Chicago could have gained a seventh year of control by leaving Jimenez in the minors for 15 days, the six-and-two structure means that he only gave up one year of potential free agency from what was otherwise his best (and only) alternative to taking this deal. There’s no way to know exactly how much money or how many years this saved the White Sox, but it basically took one season from the free agent column and moved it into the arbitration column, so the figure is likely in the millions. Since this exact set of circumstances could be changed in the next round of CBA negotiations, it was opportunistic of the White Sox to use this negotiating chip while they still had it.
But that doesn’t take away from the fact that this deal is predicated, at least in part, on some disingenuous public posturing from a club in the middle of a rebuild that isn’t going that well. They’re essentially holding their best prospect, and their fans, hostage, all to squeeze a little more value out of a potential franchise player in a far-off year. General manager Rick Hahn gave a non-answer last August when, during a sixth straight season in which the club was more than 15 games out of first place, Jimenez clearly warranted a call-up but was left in Triple-A. Manager Rick Renteria casually compared Jimenez to Ken Griffey Jr. last week when he was sent to minor league camp. Astros pitcher Collin McHugh shined a light on the motivations behind the situation after Jimenez was optioned. If Jimenez is on the Opening Day roster, I’m sure we’ll get some chuckles and shrugs when Hahn or Renteria are asked how he magically became major league-ready less than a week after they’d announced that he wasn’t.
Jimenez originally signed for $2.8 million in 2013, so that money plus the roughly $1.6 million he would get making the league minimum in 2019-2021 obviously wasn’t going to create a set-for-life situation, especially after agent/buscon fees and taxes. The sort of player he has turned into (a big corner hitter who has gotten bigger and more corner-y in recent years) isn’t in demand in free agency or elsewhere, unless that player is making close to the league minimum or is hitting like J.D. Martinez. In our most recent Top 100 prospect list, we made a graph of Jimenez’s likely WAR outcomes over his cost-controlled years, using the empirical baseline of past 60 FV hitters:
Moving left to right, the percentages are 12%, 15%, 30%, 28% and 15%. The weighted average of Jimenez’s team control-years WAR is 15.5, putting him in the middle to lower end of the 60/65 group, which jives with our 60 FV grade. We basically think he’s a perennial three-win player with a chance for a season or two of production higher than that, and about a 25% chance of turning into a role player or one who fizzles out quickly (the bottom two tiers).
Craig Edwards’ research pegs a 60 FV hitter as being worth $55 million, but Jimenez is near the top of that range and research from Dan Aucoin pegs that value at about $60 million. That would cover the first seven seasons with no deal, so $43 million guaranteed with a chance at $77 million over eight years suggests that both sides did well, with Jimenez taking somewhere between a $10 million and $20 million discount (roughly a third) to get the money guaranteed, but losing little of the upside. If Jimenez captures the full value of the deal (eight years, $77 million), that figure is very close to his present asset value over eight years, or the median value of what he’s worth over that term.
The White Sox assume some risk that Jimenez ages very quickly and turns into a DH in his arbitration years, but they’re in a rebuild and things will have gone pretty poorly in other ways if that happens. Jimenez could be leaving some money on the table if he does indeed turn into J.D. Martinez, but I’m generally of the mind that right-handed hitters with heavy builds at age 22 to take the median payout, especially if they haven’t had a huge payday yet. I just wish these sorts of shenanigans weren’t what got them there.
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Meg witnessing actual baseball being played, her plans for watching the Mariners’ and Athletics’ international Opening Day matchup, Willians Astudillo’s spring training, the long list of 2019 and 2020 rules changes announced by MLB and the MLBPA, Meg’s new hires at FanGraphs, and Jessica Mendoza’s dual role with ESPN and the Mets, then preview the 2019 Indians (44:41) with senior writer for The AthleticZack Meisel, and the 2019 White Sox (1:15:32) with The Athletic’s White Sox beat writer, James Fegan.
Santana has spent much of the last decade and a half being a perfectly acceptable starting pitcher for four big-league teams (his mean annual WAR is 2.0 on the dot), and much of the last twelve months being a hurt and bad for the Twins. Last year, an injury to his throwing hand kept him out of the rotation until late July; he would head back to the injured list in mid August and finish his season there. In between, he pitched poorly. He posted a 7.94 FIP. His 8.03 ERA was third-worst among starters with as many innings (24.2), behind only the Orioles’ Chris Tillman (who checked in with a 10.46 ERA) and new rotation-mate Carson Fulmer (8.07). Unfortunately for the White Sox, their rotation doesn’t get much better after Fulmer. Our depth charts have the White Sox dead last in projected rotation WAR for 2019: Read the rest of this entry »
After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for more than half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Chicago White Sox.
If only an outfielder was available in the free agent market, one who could bring nearly as much of a boost to a rebuilding team as Bryce Harper could!
The White Sox have all but held a press conference to proclaim that they’re out on Harper and it’s a shame, really. While I like Manny Machado slightly better on a pure value basis (the loss of whom not doubt still stings on the south side), Harper’s upside is probably less “known” than Machado’s, so he would be an interesting play for a rebuilding team. The White Sox have been unable to develop their own Bryce Harper, because, well, it’s really hard to develop Bryce Harpers. Harper would not have gotten this team to the playoffs in 2019 without some very unexpected things happening, but you can say much the same about Machado. Plus, the White Sox have exactly one interesting outfielder on the roster at the moment, whereas Yoan Moncada, Yolmer Sanchez, and Tim Anderson could all conceivably contribute to a postseason contender. Read the rest of this entry »
When publishing our lists — in particular, the top 100 — we’re frequently asked who, among the players excluded from this year’s version, might have the best chance of appearing on next year’s version. Whose stock are we buying? This post represents our best attempt to answer all of those questions at once.
This is the second year that we’re doing this, and we have some new rules. First, none of the players you see below will have ever been a 50 FV or better in any of our write-ups or rankings. So while we think Austin Hays might have a bounce back year and be a 50 FV again, we’re not allowed to include him here; you already know about him. We also forbid ourselves from using players who were on last year’s inaugural list. (We were right about 18 of the 63 players last year, a 29% hit rate, though we have no idea if that’s good or not, as it was our first time engaging in the exercise.) At the end of the piece, we have a list of potential high-leverage relievers who might debut this year. They’re unlikely to ever be a 50 FV or better because of their role, but they often have a sizable impact on competitive clubs, and readers seemed to like that we had that category last year.
We’ve separated this year’s players into groups or “types” to make it a little more digestible, and to give you some idea of the demographics we think pop-up guys come from, which could help you identify some of your own with THE BOARD. For players who we’ve already covered this offseason, we included a link to the team lists, where you can find a full scouting report. We touch briefly on the rest of the names in this post. Here are our picks to click:
Teenage Pitchers
Torres was young for his draft class, is a plus athlete, throws really hard, and had surprisingly sharp slider command all last summer. White looked excellent in the fall when the Rangers finally allowed their high school draftees to throw. He sat 92-94, and his changeup and breaking ball were both above-average. Pardinho and Woods Richardson are the two advanced guys in this group. Thomas is the most raw but, for a someone who hasn’t been pitching for very long, he’s already come a long way very quickly.
The “This is What They Look Like” Group
If you like big, well-made athletes, this list is for you. Rodriguez was physically mature compared to his DSL peers and also seems like a mature person. The Mariners have indicated they’re going to send him right to Low-A this year. He could be a middle-of-the-order, corner outfield power bat. Luciano was the Giants’ big 2018 July 2 signee. He already has huge raw power and looks better at short than he did as an amateur. Canario has elite bat speed. Adams was signed away from college football but is more instinctive than most two-sport athletes. Most of the stuff he needs to work on is related to getting to his power.
Advanced Young Bats with Defensive Value
This is the group that produces the likes of Vidal Brujan and Luis Urias. Edwards is a high-effort gamer with 70 speed and feel for line drive contact. Marcano isn’t as stocky and strong as X, but he too has innate feel for contact, and could be a plus middle infield defender. Perez has great all-fields contact ability and might be on an Andres Gimenez-style fast track, where he reaches Double-A at age 19 or 20. Ruiz is the worst defender on this list, but he has all-fields raw power and feel for contact. He draws Alfonso Soriano comps. Palacios is the only college prospect listed here. He had three times as many walks as strikeouts at Towson last year. Rosario controls the zone well, is fast, and is a plus defender in center field.
Corner Power Bats
Nevin will probably end up as a contact-over-power first baseman, but he might also end up with a 70 bat. He looked great against Fall League pitching despite having played very little as a pro due to injury. Lavigne had a lot of pre-draft helium and kept hitting after he signed. He has all-fields power. Apostel saw reps at first during instructs but has a good shot to stay at third. He has excellent timing and explosive hands.
College-aged Pitchers
It’s hard to imagine any of these guys rocketing into the top 50 overall. Rather, we would anticipate that they end up in the 60-100 range on next year’s list. Gilbert was a workhorse at Stetson and his velo may spike with reshaped usage. Singer should move quickly because of how advanced his command is. Lynch’s pre-draft velocity bump held throughout the summer, and he has command of several solid secondaries. Abreu spent several years in rookie ball and then had a breakout 2018, forcing Houston to 40-man him to protect him from the Rule 5. He’ll tie Dustin May for the second-highest breaking ball spin rate on THE BOARD when the Houston list goes up. We’re intrigued by what Dodgers player dev will do with an athlete like Gray. Phillips throws a ton of strikes and has a good four-pitch mix.
Bounce Back Candidates
The Dodgers have a strong track record of taking severely injured college arms who return with better stuff after a long period of inactivity. That could be Grove, their 2018 second rounder, who missed most of his sophomore and junior seasons at West Virginia. McCarthy was also hurt during his junior season and it may have obscured his true abilities. Burger is coming back from multiple Achilles ruptures, but was a strong college performer with power before his tire blew.
Catchers
We’re very excited about the current crop of minor league catchers. Naylor is athletic enough that he’s likely to improve as a defender and he has rare power for the position.
Potentially Dominant Relievers
These names lean “multi-inning” rather than “closer.” Gonsolin was a two-way player in college who has been the beneficiary of sound pitch design. He started last year but was up to 100 mph out of the bullpen the year before. He now throws a four seamer rather than a sinker and he developed a nasty splitter in 2017. He also has two good breaking balls. He has starter stuff but may break in as a reliever this year.
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