One of the fun parts of writing about baseball is the image services. We use Imagn Images, which is owned by USA Today. Like all image services, it licenses pictures taken by professional photographers all over the world to news organizations without their own photographers. That very much includes FanGraphs. We’re not photographers. I’m definitely not a photographer. Here’s the most recent picture I took. It’s a bunch of dusty foam acoustic panels, and I think you’ll agree that the composition is garbage.

Luckily, the image service allows us to use pictures from actual talented photographers. These people take superlative action shots, and then we grab a convenient one for the top of each article. The system works, but it leaves so, so many cool pictures unused. Today, I’d like to highlight one category of pictures that is a particular favorite of mine: Outfielders smushing themselves into the wall as they try to make a leaping catch. As subgenres go, it’s a delight, and so we’re going to honor the best it has to offer. Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Los Angeles Angels. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. This is the sixth year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but we use that as a rule of thumb.

A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.

All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

12:03

Dan Szymborski: Greetings friends! I am enjoying a balmy 14 degrees now, a full 24 degrees of warming in the last four hours!

12:03

Dan Szymborski: If only my mazda was a convertible so I could go enjoy the day

12:03

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS doesn’t necessarily see them as better

12:03

Dan Szymborski: It already liked PCA a ton. Sees Bregman/Tucker swap a wash. No more excited about the rotation and nobody has a projection as good as Steele last year. Likes bullpen a bit better

Read the rest of this entry »

In case you missed them, the 2026 ZiPS projections are now officially in the site’s projection database for your delight (or disdain), and reflect all of the signings and trades that have transpired this offseason. There’s still a week and a half to go before pitchers and catchers report, but with the full set of projections available, and it being so cold and snowy outside that I have little desire to leave my house, this seemed like a good opportunity to run the first set of ZiPS projected standings for the 2026 season. These, of course, aren’t the final projected standings, as there are likely to be significant changes between now and Opening Day. Instead, think of them as the “state of the preseason” projections.

These standings are the result of a million simulations, not results obtained from binomial or even beta-binomial magic. The methodology isn’t identical to the one we use for our Playoff Odds, which will launch soon. So how does ZiPS calculate the season? Stored within ZiPS are the first- through 99th-percentile projections for each player. I start by making a generalized depth chart, using our Depth Charts as a jumping off point. Since these are my curated projections, I make changes based on my personal feelings about who will receive playing time as filtered through arbitrary whimsy my reasoned understanding of each team. ZiPS then generates a million versions of each team in Monte Carlo fashion.

After that is done, ZiPS applies another set of algorithms with a generalized distribution of injury risk that changes the baseline plate appearances or innings pitched for each player. ZiPS then automatically and proportionally “fills in” playing time from the next players on the list to get to a full slate of plate appearances and innings. Read the rest of this entry »

When Eric Longenhagen put together our 2018 Philadelphia Phillies top prospects list, he described southpaw Ranger Suárez as “small but athletic and mechanically efficient, unfurling a sinker/slider combination that has a chance to play at the back of a rotation.” Having yet to pitch above High-A, the 22-year-old Suárez was assigned a 40 FV and a 2020 ETA.

He has gone on to exceed expectations. Not only did Suárez reach the majors earlier than anticipated — July of that same season — he has evolved into a frontline starter. After first establishing himself as a reliever, the Pie de Cuesta, Venezuela native moved into the Phillies rotation in August 2021, and since then, he boasts a 3.39 ERA and a 3.45 FIP over 654 frames. Moreover, he has gone 4-1 with a 1.48 ERA in the postseason, a contributing factor to his desirability in the free agent market. As chronicled by my colleague Davy Andrews, the Red Sox inked Suárez to a five-year, $130-million deal earlier this month.

When Sonny Gray met with the Boston media after being acquired via trade from the St. Louis Cardinals in late November, I asked the veteran right-hander if he feels settled in to who he’ll be going forward, or if he foresees making any changes to his repertoire or pitch usage. I haven’t had an opportunity to ask that question to Suárez, but I did present a version of it to Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow. Does the organization’s pitching brain trust anticipate suggesting any tweaks, or do they view the 30-year-old lefty as someone who already optimizes his talents? Read the rest of this entry »

I was thinking about Rob Refsnyder recently for two reasons. First, I think about Rob Refsnyder a lot. I try to be professional in this forum, but everyone has their own sports fan nemeses, and Refsnyder is one of mine.

Back in 2012, Refsnyder — then a University of Arizona Wildcat — was the Most Outstanding Player of the College World Series, in part because he went berserk in the two-game final against South Carolina: 4-for-6 with two walks and a home run. He drove in the winning run in Game 1 and scored the winning run in Game 2. My beloved Gamecocks were denied a third straight national championship and haven’t been back to Omaha since. I’ll die mad about this series, and I’ll never forgive Refsnyder in particular.

I did not, however, expect to still be writing about Refsnyder — then a punchy, athletically unremarkable second baseman — in 2026. The previous year’s College World Series MOP, Scott Wingo, was an 11th-round pick; he never came close to making the majors and has spent the past decade as a college assistant coach. (He was most recently in the news in 2024 as the Home Run Derby pitcher for Alec Bohm.) Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about their coming deliverance from a slow baseball news period, spring training as a spectator experience, and how the prelude to Opening Day has changed, then (12:43) answer emails about the many meanings of “back end” in baseball, an outfielder who repels batted balls, whether all rule violations constitute cheating, a playoff team composed of spoilers, and which positions the members of the Fellowship of the Ring would play, followed (1:16:01) by a Stat Blast about the Mets’ roster reconstruction and the history of high turnover.

Audio intro: Liz Panella, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Jonathan Crymes, “Effectively Wild Theme 2”

Link to back end definitions
Link to Magneto wiki
Link to Magnetokinesis wiki
Link to X-Men baseball history
Link to Ben’s Mets article
Link to Stat Blast data 1
Link to Stat Blast data 2
Link to Ben on turnover history
Link to more on turnover history
Link to Clemens on the Mets
Link to Sherman on the Mets
Link to Mets offseason history
Link to Mets depth chart
Link to projected pitcher playing time
Link to projected hitter playing time
Link to projected team WAR
Link to Ben on team complacency
Link to BaseRuns records
Link to listener emails database
Link to cloud seeding wiki
Link to weekend weather info
Link to “And my axe!” clip
Link to “One does not” clip

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