Life After Baseball, Part 1

This is Alexis Brudnicki’s first piece as part of her March residency at FanGraphs. Alexis is the Director of Baseball Information for the Great Lake Canadians, an elite amateur baseball program in London, Ontario, Canada. She has written for various publications including Baseball America, Canadian Baseball Network, Sportsnet, The Hardball Times, and Prep Baseball report. She won a 2016 SABR Analytics Conference Research Award for Contemporary Baseball Commentary. She can also be found on Twitter (@baseballexis). She’ll be contributing here this month.

Baseball has a life of its own.

When players are immersed in that life, most often they’re focused on the task at hand, the path ahead, and the game they love. There are some who think beyond the season, or their current contract, and try to make plans for a future without the game. The truth is, though, it can be really hard to think about a life beyond the only one players have ever known.

According to a 10-year-old study from the University of Colorado at Boulder, the average Major League Baseball career lasts 5.6 years, with one in five position players lasting only a single season in the majors. The study also indicated that, at every point of a player’s career, the chance of it ending entirely is at least 11%.

Baseball’s average career length is also the longest among the four major sports, with the average NFL career lasting 3.5 years, an NBA career 4.8 years, and the NHL next-longest at 5.5, according to information obtained by the RAM Financial group a decade ago.

Major League Baseball originally established its College Scholarship Program in the 1960s, and last year made changes during collective bargaining to what is currently called the Continuing Education Program, “to help baseball players prepare for life after baseball.” The alteration to the program represents an attempt to move away from for-profit schools and to allow players to continue education at institutions with more successful graduation rates.

Steve Tolleson is a ballplayer-turned-wealth advisor for Parallel Financial, who got his start in the money game in college. His final research project en route to obtaining his degree revolved around studying professional athletes and what happens to their money both while playing and after leaving the game.

“Most athletes feel like they’re great at their profession, so they’re probably great at managing their life outside of their profession,” Tolleson said. “Those are a lot of the athletes who fall into trouble…

“It’s a special brotherhood we’re all in, and we get a bad rep for managing money and managing lifestyles. It’s the reality. If you have a 25-year-old making $5 million a year, they live in a way they shouldn’t live. It’s not for everybody because some people are going to do what they want to do no matter what you do or no matter how you scare them, but the guys we work with are very much understanding of what life after baseball has to look like.”

Tolleson — whose professional career spanned 12 years, with stretches of four of those in the majors — had an early glimpse of the financial world during college, but the infielder took a real interest in it, and his future, following an extended trip back to Triple-A after some time and success in the big leagues.

“I honestly started getting more serious about it in 2012,” he said. “I played pretty much the full year in the big leagues with Baltimore, I was designated [for assignment], I played with the White Sox, had a great year in Triple-A, and was never given the chance to play in the big leagues for whatever reason that was. That offseason really led me to start thinking, what’s next?”

But what does life after baseball really look like? After years of focusing on throwing a ball or wielding a bat, how do players adapt to preparing for the second stage of life and everything it entails? Some players are ready, some use their baseball network to remain in the game in another capacity, and some find options just fall into their laps. Others, no doubt, just fade from our view.

In this two-part series, several former players discuss how they prepared for civilian life and the challenges they’ve faced since leaving the game. This first part features two players who left the game for a different kind of show business. Meet the entertainers.

Chris Leroux has always lived his life in six-month spurts.

After being drafted out of high school in Mississauga, Ontario, he actually began his professional career after attending Winthrop University, a seventh-round pick of the Florida Marlins in 2005. The right-hander played in the big leagues for the Marlins, Pirates, and Yankees during his 11-year career, also spending time in Japan and splitting winters between the Dominican Republic and Venezuela, before calling it quits and becoming the titular bachelor on The Bachelor Canada last year.

Read the rest of this entry »


Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 3/16/18

9:05

Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:05

Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:05

Mike: Hello Jeff, have you contemplated mortality today?

9:06

Jeff Sullivan: Yes

9:06

The Man With No Name: Still on the Wilmer Font hype train?  What about Scott Alexander?

9:07

Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, I still like Font. Not going to abandon that hope because of a bad day on March 6

Read the rest of this entry »


A Happy, Healthy Hanley Ramirez?

Hanley Ramirez hit 23 home runs “with one arm” in 2017.
(Photo: Keith Allison)

It’s not a stretch to say that Hanley Ramirez’s four-year, $88 million contract with the Red Sox hasn’t worked out well through its first three years. He’s moved off of shortstop to unfamiliar positions at which he’s struggled, namely left field (2015) and first base (2016). He’s battled injuries — particularly problems with both shoulders — to the point of averaging just 128 games per year. And in two of his three seasons, he’s finished with a sub-zero WAR (-1.7 in 2015, -0.4 last year). With the addition of J.D. Martinez to the crowded Boston roster, he stands to lose playing time. Even so, his chipper disposition in this Boston Herald piece earlier this week was eye-catching, even if it marks the 34-year-old slugger’s entry into the “Best Shape of His Life” genre.

After hitting just .242/.320/.429 with 23 homers and a 93 wRC+ last year, Ramirez underwent surgery to debride his left shoulder (the one that required season-ending surgery in 2011) in November. He spent the winter working out with Martinez in Miami, reported to camp (allegedly) 15 pounds lighter thanks to a new diet and fitness regimen, and has been playing first base in Grapefruit League games with no reported difficulties. Via the Herald’s Mike Silverman, Ramirez has been telling reporters he’ll go 30-30 this year — 30 homers and 30 steals, a pairing he achieved in 2008 after missing by one homer the year before. It certainly seems unlikely given that he stole just one base last year and has needed the past four seasons to total exactly 30.

Nobody’s about to bet on that. The big question is how much playing time he’ll get under new manager Alex Cora, who will have his hands full. With an outfield of 23-year-old Andrew Benintendi in left, 28-year-old Jackie Bradley in center, and 25-year-old Mookie Betts in right — a defensively adept group that combined for 48 DRS and 26 UZR last year — it’s not like it makes a ton of sense to shoehorn Martinez (-8 UZR in rightfield last year, -5.8 per 150 games in the two corners career-wise) into an outfield corner instead of DH-ing him. Perhaps the lefty-swinging Benintendi’s struggles against same-side pitching (60 wRC+ in 140 career PA) provide an opening, albeit at the risk of impeding the younger player’s development and forcing Martinez to play the Green Monster. The Red Sox have discussed what amounts to a home-road platoon with Martinez-Bradley-Betts at Fenway and Benintendi-Betts-Martinez elsewhere, but that’s a lot of time riding pine for Bradley as well as Benintendi, who just a year ago was touted as a Rookie of the Year candidate.

Read the rest of this entry »


Top 29 Prospects: Miami Marlins

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Miami Marlins. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

Marlins Top Prospects
Rk Name Age High Level Position ETA FV
1 Lewis Brinson 23 R CF 2018 60
2 Monte Harrison 22 A+ CF 2020 50
3 Jorge Guzman 22 R RHP 2021 50
4 Brian Anderson 24 MLB 3B 2018 50
5 Isan Diaz 21 A+ 2B 2019 50
6 Braxton Garrett 20 A LHP 2021 50
7 Magneuris Sierra 21 MLB OF 2018 50
8 Sandy Alcantara 22 MLB RHP 2018 50
9 James Nelson 20 A 3B 2021 45
10 Nick Neidert 21 AA RHP 2018 45
11 Trevor Rogers 20 R LHP 2021 45
12 Edward Cabrera 19 A- RHP 2021 45
13 Braxton Lee 24 AA OF 2018 45
14 Brian Miller 22 R CF 2020 40
15 Chris Torres 20 A- SS 2021 40
16 Jose Devers 18 R SS 2022 40
17 Dillon Peters 25 R LHP 2018 40
18 Pablo Lopez 22 A+ RHP 2019 40
19 Zac Gallen 22 AAA RHP 2019 40
20 Elieser Hernandez 22 A+ RHP 2018 40
21 Garrett Cooper 27 MLB 1B 2018 40
22 Jordan Yamamoto 21 A+ RHP 2020 40
23 Colton Hock 21 A- RHP 2020 40
24 Joe Dunand 22 A+ 3B 2021 40
25 Thomas Jones 20 A- OF 2022 40
26 Robert Dugger 22 AAA RHP 2020 40
27 Brayan Hernandez 20 AAA CF 2021 40
28 Jordan Holloway 21 A RHP 2020 40
29 Tyler Kolek 22 A RHP 2022 40

60 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2012 from Coral Springs HS (FL)
Age 23 Height 6’3 Weight 195 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/50 65/65 50/60 60/55 50/55 60/60

Brinson has loud physical tools: plus raw power, plus speed, plus arm strength, and the ability to play center field despite mediocre instincts. He didn’t hit for as much power as was expected at hitter-friendly Colorado Springs in 2017, but scouting reports on the raw power, and Brinson’s ability to get to it in games, remain strong. Provided he’s able to make continuous adjustments — and he’s exhibited the ability to do that on his ascent through the minors — Brinson has 25-homer potential. He has had several soft-tissue, lower-body injuries during his career, including multiple hamstring issues, one of which ended his 2017 season. He’s still a plus runner underway but doesn’t reach top speed as quickly as he once did.

50 FV Prospects

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2014 from Lee’s Summit West (MO)
Age 21 Height 6’3 Weight 220 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/45 60/60 30/55 60/60 45/50 80/80

This is what it looks like when things start to click on the baseball field for a premium athlete: a .272/.350/.481 line split between two levels, 51 extra-base hits (including 21 homers), and 27 bases stolen at a 87% success rate. Harrison has always had late-bloomer traits. He was a multi-sport stud — not multi-sport athlete, multi-sport stud — in high school and only committed to baseball full time after turning pro. In parts of three pro seasons entering 2017, Harrison missed time with a hamate fracture and broken leg, which prevented him from getting the reps he needed and diluted the way his tools looked on the field when he was.

Read the rest of this entry »


Effectively Wild Episode 1191: Season Preview Series: Blue Jays and Pirates

EWFI

Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about a new nautical analogy by Scott Boras, the resurgent Lucas Giolito, Ronald Acuña (again), and possible destinations for free agents Alex Cobb and Greg Holland, then preview the 2018 Blue Jays (15:00) with Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith, and the 2018 Pirates (46:48) with MLB.com’s Adam Berry.

Read the rest of this entry »


Mr. Alderson’s Opus

Sandy Alderson is a shrewd fellow. He went to, and graduated from, Dartmouth College before attending, and graduating from, Harvard Law School. He invented “Moneyball,” only for his former Oakland A’s deputy Billy Beane to reap all of the glory, envy, and disdain. His tenure as New York Mets general manager has not changed the perception that he is a smarty. When everybody and their deceased relatives knew he was looking to unload Addison Reed last summer, Alderson added another reliever (AJ Ramos) via trade, improving the market for Reed and picking up a division rival’s closer under team control for 2018 in the process.

Seeing Justin Turner and Daniel Murphy in Dodger and National jerseys, respectively, is a reminder he isn’t perfect. Seeing Noah Syndergaard tossing 101 mph fastballs with seemingly no effort is a reminder, however, that Sandy didn’t lose his own fastball in his twilight years. Throw in the caveat that he’s working with a weirdly limited — and allegedly nebulous — budget for a team based in New York and that ownership sometimes rejects trades he makes, and you got yourself an appreciation stew.

So, in that context, let’s now also remember that Sandy Alderson has said he thinks that Tim Tebow will make the major leagues.

I think he will play in the Major Leagues. That’s my guess. That’s my hope. And to some extent now after a year and a half, a modest expectation.

Read the rest of this entry »


Jonny Venters Is Pitching

It’s not actually all that clear how many pitchers have had Tommy John surgery three or more times. According to some sources, Jose Rijo counts. According to some sources, Jason Isringhausen counts. Baseball Reference includes Scott Williamson, Jarrod Parker, Josh Johnson, and Chad Fox. On the other hand, we have the list provided by Jon Roegele. Among the repeats, there’s only one three-time survivor. Anthony Castrovince provides a partial explanation.

How many pitchers have made it back to the big leagues after their third Tommy John? Technically, none. Though Jose Rijo and Jason Isringhausen are often cited to have had at least three Tommy Johns apiece, Jon Roegele’s oft-cited Tommy John database does not recognize either pitcher as a three-time recipient of the surgery, because, for each guy, at least one of the surgeries addressed a flexor tendon tear, not a UCL tear.

I can’t speak to the exact history of the procedure. I can’t tell you exactly how many pitchers have had it three times. I can tell you that, whatever the answer is, it’s an absurdly low number. It’s a number that includes Jonny Venters. Not only has Venters been through Tommy John three times; more recently, he’s been through another elbow operation. Right now, he’s in camp with the Rays. Just yesterday, he pitched. And when he pitched on February 25 against the Twins, it was his first spring action since 2013.

Read the rest of this entry »


Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat – 3/15/18

2:00
THE Average Sports Fan: How would you feel about getting rid of extra innings and just having 9 inning ties?

2:01
Meg Rowley: Hi and welcome to the chat. Yes, I jumped the gun with a question, but to answer it: If the idea is to prevent injury in the minors, then I’d prefer a tie rather than the weird theater of a runner on second.

2:01
Meg Rowley: Sadly, I don’t think that is the purpose here. I think the purpose is as a laboratory for the majors, and boy would that be a dumb bummer.

2:02
Meg Rowley: I’ve been with Manfred on mound visits and pitch clocks and automatic intentional walks, but this feels like a fundamental misunderstanding of his product. Extras are exciting!

2:02
Uncle Charlie: Hi Meg! Do you do fantasy questions?

2:03
Meg Rowley: Never very well! But this is a great chance to encourage you read Fantasy Preview Week over at The Hardball Times! Those guys actually know what they are talking about.

Read the rest of this entry »


Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 3/15/18

12:00
jjp: Do you fill out a March Madness bracket? If so, who do you have winning it all?

12:02
Jay Jaffe: I had *planned* to fill out a bracket, but being under the weather and rather swamped for the past couple of days — my own version of March Madness — I didn’t get around to it. NBD, I didn’t watch a single college basketball game this year, and my interest in NCAA sports has basically been stabbed 23 times by so many scandals and revelations over the years. I’ll probably check in on the tournament but with the University of Utah not in it, I have no dog in this hunt.

12:03
Aaron : Hey Jay, Keeper help! H2H 5×5 categories, keep 3, as first 3 picks of draft, can keep forever. Betts, Bellinger, G. Sanchez, Syndergaard or Bregman? who you got? Thanks

12:05
Jay Jaffe: Standard issue response: I’m sorry but I don’t play fantasy baseball anymore, and don’t want to misrepresent myself as being a useful source of information in that realm. That said it would seem to me that Sanchez, a power-hitting 25-year-old catcher with the defensive skills to hold the position for awhile, is the way to go here.

12:05
Sharp: Tom Boswell thinks that this offseason’s FA pricing means that Harper will be lucky to get 7/250 next year.  How wrong is he, and why?

12:10
Jay Jaffe: I think Harper can get into the $300 million range with a longer deal than that, but for as much as I love the kid’s game, I’m also among those who believe that he has to put together a 2015-like season — healthy and dominant for 150sh games — to get there. Put that MVP season aside and he’s averaged 3.6 WAR in his other years (it’s better than that if you prorate, obvs), which is nice but hardly transcendent.

Read the rest of this entry »


Ronald Acuna, Willie Calhoun, and Service-Time Manipulations

Kris Bryant has become the handsome, clear-eyed face of service-time manipulation.
(Photo: Arturo Pardavila III)

Three years ago, Kris Bryant ranked as the best prospect in baseball. Then 23 years old, Bryant had brutalized minor-league pitching the year before and destroyed the competition in spring training with nine homers and 17 total hits in 44 plate appearances. Despite a clubhouse that now included Jon Lester and manager Joe Maddon among others — part of the Cubs’ signal to the world they were ready to compete — Bryant was easily one of the best 25 players in the organization, probably among the top five, and eventually proved during the season he was Chicago’s best position player.

And yet, the Cubs opted not to start the season with Kris Bryant on the roster. Once Bryant had spent enough days at Triple-A to extend his team control by a year — to become a free agent after the 2021 season instead of the 2020 campaign — the future MVP received a callup to the majors.

Bryant is still the most famous and most obvious case of a team’s effort to manipulate player service time to the potential detriment of the on-field product, but it happened before Bryant, has happened since Bryant, and is likely to keep happening. This season, there are several prominent players who might be kept off their major-league rosters for a time so that the team might save money and gain control of the player for an extra season.

For those unfamiliar with how service time works in these instances, here it is briefly. Players achieve free agency once they have six years of service time. Although the season lasts 187 days, a player is considered to have played a full season if he appears on an MLB roster or disabled list for 172 days. In any season where a player hits the 172-day threshold, that counts as one season of service time. If a player belongs to the roster for fewer than 172 days, he must combine those days with days from another campaign to reach the official “full season” mark.

Kris Bryant’s case is a useful example of this work. In 2015, he was on the roster for 171 days. That time counts only as a partial season. In the last two years, Bryant has been on the roster for more than 180 days each year, and each of those seasons count as one year of service time. At the end of the 2020 season, Bryant will have five seasons and 171 days of service, one day short of the six seasons necessary for free agency. As a result, he will need to play in 2021 to become a free agent. An extended discussion of service time appears in the FanGraphs glossary.

Read the rest of this entry »