As the draft comes to an end, I find that even after writing a number of articles about this class, I still have more to say. So now that the tables are being folded up and the bartender is cleaning out the taps, here’s an offering of potpourri from draft season: Stray anecdotes and quotes from the combine, or bits of analysis, that never found a home in an article.
But you could argue that the real school of the draft was Corona High School of California, which had right-hander Seth Hernandez go to the Pirates sixth overall, shortstop Billy Carlson go to the White Sox at pick no. 10, and third baseman Brady Ebel go to Milwaukee at pick no. 32. (In an amusing coincidence, Carlson is committed to Tennessee, though after he went in the top 10, I doubt we’ll ever see him in Knoxville except as a tourist.) Read the rest of this entry »
Ben Lindbergh and Davy Andrews banter about Meg’s absence, Byron Buxton, Kyle Stowers, and an Orioles/Marlins surprise, the backlash to Jacob Misiorowski’s All-Star selection, the status of the All-Star game and whether All-Star designations need to change, All-Star/Home Run Derby excitement and the merits of several unsung (or undersung) All-Stars and non-All-Stars, a hypothetical about mystery All-Stars, Shohei Ohtani’s pitching progression, and more.
Over the last three weeks, we’ve had three different leaders atop these power rankings. The top of the standings have been volatile, as no one really has pulled away from the pack. On the other hand, the bottom half of the rankings have been stable, with a large group of mediocre teams stuck in the awkward zone between competing and retooling.
Last year, we revamped our power rankings using a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant solution that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). The weighted Elo ranks are then displayed as “Power Score” in the tables below. As the best and worst teams sort themselves out throughout the season, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise will remain reactive to hot streaks or cold snaps.
First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times where I take editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula. Read the rest of this entry »
Below is a team-by-team analysis of last night’s draft activity. Remember that you can find more detailed scouting reports and tool grades for the players drafted yesterday over on The Board. The positions below are what I have them projected as on The Board, not necessarily what the player was announced as. For pitchers, I have a role designated below: starter (SP), or single-inning or multi-inning reliever (SIRP and MIRP). Read the rest of this entry »
Happy Derby Day! At 8:00 p.m. tonight at Truist Park in Cobb County, Georgia, some of the largest human beings Major League Baseball has to offer will be hitting some of the longest home runs imaginable, and we get to watch. The cool kids will be tuned into the Statcast broadcast on ESPN 2, hosted by Kevin Brown (the current Orioles play-by-play man, not the former Orioles pitcher), Jessica Mendoza, and erstwhile FanGraphs contributor Mike Petriello. Petriello told me that he spent Friday crunching first-half stats and Derby results from 2016 to 2024 in order to create a prediction model, so if you want to see a baseball nerd being baseball nerdy on national television, make sure you catch the opening.
Although we never get to see all the stars we’d like in the Derby, this year may feel particularly bereft. We are missing out on A-listers like Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani, and Derby legends like Pete Alonso and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. We’re also going to be without most of the most prolific home run hitters of the season. Cal Raleigh and James Wood are the only participants who rank within the top nine in home runs. Only half the Derby contestants are even in the top 30. We have no repeat participants from the 2024 season. In fact, Matt Olson is the only one who has ever participated in the Derby before, and he lost in the first round in 2021. On the other hand, Raleigh leads the majors in home runs, and based purely on how far and hard these eight sluggers hit the ball, we may well have the most powerful field ever assembled. Read the rest of this entry »
Today, we have a Killers two-fer, with lists covering a couple of important defensive positions, specifically second base and catcher. While still focusing on teams that meet the loose definition of a contender (a .500 record or Playoff Odds of roughly 10%) and that have gotten about 0.6 WAR or less out of a position thus far (which prorates to 1.0 WAR over a full season), I have also incorporated our Depth Charts’ rest-of-season WAR projections into the equation for an additional perspective. That may suggest that some of these teams will clear the bar by a significant margin, but even so, I’ve included them here because their performance at that spot thus far is worth a look. All statistics are through July 12.
2025 Replacement-Level Killers: Catcher
Team
AVG
OBP
SLG
wRC+
Bat
BsR
Fld
WAR
ROS WAR
Tot WAR
Padres
.198
.259
.311
63
-13.7
-4.4
-8.1
-0.9
-0.2
-1.1
Rays
.191
.282
.315
71
-12.2
-1.0
-6.9
-0.1
0.9
0.8
Twins
.204
.287
.319
71
-12.5
-1.0
-3.5
0.3
1.1
1.4
All statistics through July 12.
Padres
With Kyle Higashioka departing for the Rangers in free agency, the Padres — who ranked 24th in the majors last year in catcher WAR (1.1) — pencilled in Luis Campusano, the weaker partner of last year’s catching tandem, alongside late-season addition Elias Díaz to do the bulk of the work behind plate. The pair, augmented by 38-year-old free agent Martín Maldonado, ranked dead last in our preseason Positional Power Rankings. After optioning Campusano to Triple-A El Paso in March (he was recalled yesterday), they’ve approximated that billing, ranking 29th out of the 30 teams in catcher WAR. Read the rest of this entry »
Baseball players can be pretty big. I knew this going in. Even so, I was not prepared for Noah Yoder. The 18-year-old pitcher from Mechanicsville, Virginia, draped himself onto the chair I’d set out for him, and then he started to overflow his container, like an overproofed bread dough liberating itself from a too-small pan.
Yoder explained that, having little showcase experience other than an eye-catching performance at East Coast Pro, he was enjoying his fancy surroundings at the MLB Draft Combine. Having a shuttle bus from the hotel to the ballpark was a particularly nice surprise.
As he settled into his seat and stretched out his legs, I was quickly coming to the realization that I had not left nearly enough space between his chair and my own. My previous interview had been with a compact college relief pitcher, and I hadn’t thought to rearrange the furniture for my next guest. Read the rest of this entry »
1. Washington Nationals Pick: Eli Willits, SS, Fort Cobb-Broxton HS (OK)
Before Mike Rizzo was let go, folks would have put Ethan Holliday here given the relationship of that regime with Holliday’s agent, Scott Boras, as well as the Rizzo era’s penchant for high-upside high school players. There is some industry conjecture that the key pieces of Washington’s core that might make sense to extend (James Wood, MacKenzie Gore) who are also Boras clients are not receptive to the idea of extensions, and frustration stemming from this might make the new leadership group less apt to want to work with Boras, who represents all the players here not named Eli Willits. About an hour before the draft I started to get wind of rumors that Washington was looking to cut a deal with one of Holliday, Anderson or Willits, whoever takes the least of that group. Willits’ next alternative seems like pick number five, making him the most likely to cut the biggest deal.
2. Los Angeles Angels Pick: Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee
In keeping with the Angels’ consistent modus operandi of taking quick-moving college guys, teams have put them with Doyle (most frequently), Kade Anderson, and/or on a deal cut with Ike Irish. I did have one person suggest they were a threat to take Holliday, but just one.
3. Seattle Mariners Pick: Ethan Holliday, 3B, Stillwater HS (OK)
If the draft lottery gods were kind to you and you moved up as much as the Mariners did, wouldn’t you feel like you were playing with house money and feel comfortable taking the potential franchise-altering player?
4. Colorado Rockies Pick: Kade Anderson, LHP, LSU
This is generally seen as Ethan’s floor. Folks think Colorado would take a college arm if he isn’t here, and in this scenario, Anderson is.
5. St. Louis Cardinals Pick: Billy Carlson, SS, Corona HS (CA)
Lots of Eli Willits smoke here, though if Jojo Parker’s and Billy Carlson’s camps think they’re falling pretty deep, they might be under-slot targets here. Teams like Ike Irish enough that he could go anywhere from here through pick 10.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates Pick: Ike Irish, C/OF, Auburn
Mentioned here have been Jamie Arnold (in the Anthony Solometo mechanical mold, so it makes sense), Aiva Arquette, and Billy Carlson, but dope around Pittsburgh the last couple of years has almost never been correct. Irish might be the quickest-moving hitter from this draft class; he’s as stable a position player prospect as there is in the draft as the clock ticks on this front office to put together a competitive team.
7. Miami Marlins Pick: Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona HS (CA)
Teams have put all the high school shortstops here, and also Ike Irish and Seth Hernandez. Carlson performed from a contact standpoint but has some visual hit tool risk, similar to Carter Johnson and PJ Morlando last year.
8. Toronto Blue Jays Pick: Aiva Arquette, SS, Oregon State
I don’t have any specific dope here, this is just good value if Arquette falls this far. College pitchers with fastball playability tend to be Toronto’s style, which could put Jamie Arnold and Kyson Witherspoon in their mix. I’m not sure any of the high school shortstops scratch their itch because they’re all older.
9. Cincinnati Reds Pick: Steele Hall, SS, Hewitt-Trussville HS (AL)
Seth Hernandez if he’s here. Teams think the Reds are keeping their options open and that they’re in play for any of the high school shortstops. In this scenario, Parker and Hall are here. Hall’s speed and athleticism are more a fit for what they’ve tended to do.
10. Chicago White Sox Pick: Jojo Parker, SS, Purvis HS (MS)
11. Athletics Pick: Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State
12. Texas Rangers Pick: Gavin Fien, 3B/OF, Great Oak HS (CA)
13. San Francisco Giants Pick: Tyler Bremner, RHP, UCSB
14. Tampa Bay Rays Pick: Kyson Witherspoon, RHP, Oklahoma
15. Boston Red Sox Pick: Gavin Kilen, SS, Tennessee
The last couple of days, folks have mentioned that Arnold is falling. He’d be a great buy-low for the A’s. Fien and Jace LaViolette have been mentioned with Texas. Industry sources put the Giants more on college players now that Buster Posey is running things. I’ve been told the Rays are Kyson Witherspoon’s floor. Boston is expected to make a model-driven pick and Kilen’s bat-to-ball skills fit there. He could also go a pick earlier to San Francisco. This is the area where people think Daniel Pierce will cut a deal.
Arizona has a bunch of picks and therefore perhaps more motivation to cut a deal, and Pierce is rumored to have one somewhere in this range. Baltimore has taken toolsy college hitters with plate discipline issues the last few years, and this year that’s Aloy. Milwaukee has tended to target high schoolers of late, but the contact-oriented up-the-middle guys left here (Bodine, Marek Houston) could tempt them, too.
Houston targets toolsy college guys, even when they have strikeout risk. At this stage, that’s Jace, and Aloy if he’s there. There are several surface-scratching arms with good fastballs here for Atlanta to consider (Patrick Forbes, Matthew Fisher); that’s their type, riding heaters with good breakers.
26. Philadelphia Phillies Pick: Dax Kilby, INF, Newnan HS (GA)
27. Cleveland Guardians Pick: Devin Taylor, OF Indiana
Prospect Promotion Incentive Picks
28. Kansas City Royals (Received for Bobby Witt Jr. finishing in top 3 of MVP voting) Pick: Kruz Schoolcraft, LHP, Sunset HS (OR)
Compensation Picks
29. Arizona Diamondbacks (Compensation for Christian Walker) Pick: Slater de Brun, CF, Summit HS (OR)
30. Baltimore Orioles (Compensation for Corbin Burnes) Pick: Matthew Fisher, RHP, Evansville Memorial HS (IN)
31. Baltimore Orioles (Compensation for Anthony Santander) Pick: Marek Houston, SS, Wake Forest
32. Milwaukee Brewers (Compensation for Willy Adames) Pick: Jaden Fauske, C/OF, Nazareth Academy HS (IL)
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